The bears are losing their grip

[oda.krell]

... when the Microsoft news broke, and price only moved minimally up...

... it starts to look the other way around now: another big auction... The market reaction: so far, mostly 'meh' again...

Some might conclude that news doesn't drive the price, but not Bitcoiners.  No.  To them this points to "changing sentimen"

Lrn2readplox.

Nobody said news determines (or "drives") price, least of them all masterluc.

Fact is, news have a "point" effect on the market, and that point effect can reveal an underlying market bias.

Example, SR crash in late 2013: SR news hits --> panic, then sharp crash (the "point" effect of the news. meaningless to argue the crash wasn't due to SR) --> as a result of the price drop, immediate rise of buying pressure. hidden bulls salivating at the low prices. almost immediately total reversal. rally time.

The last part: that's the "reveal of the bias" aspect of news hitting. That's what (I believe) OP had in mind.

[NotHatinJustTrollin]

... when the Microsoft news broke, and price only moved minimally up...

... it starts to look the other way around now: another big auction... The market reaction: so far, mostly 'meh' again...

Some might conclude that news doesn't drive the price, but not Bitcoiners.  No.  To them this points to "changing sentimen"

Lrn2readplox.

Nobody said news determines (or "drives") price, least of them all masterluc.

Fact is, news have a "point" effect on the market, and that point effect can reveal an underlying market bias.

Example, SR crash in late 2013: SR news hits --> panic, then sharp crash (the "point" effect of the news. meaningless to argue the crash wasn't due to SR) --> as a result of the price drop, immediate rise of buying pressure. hidden bulls salivating at the low prices. almost immediately total reversal. rally time.

The last part: that's the "reveal of the bias" aspect of news hitting. That's what (I believe) OP had in mind.

I think that's what RyNinDaCleM was referring to with "earth shattering news". At the time, the Silk Road seizure was exactly that.

[exocytosis]

Sorry for your loss.

[exocytosis]

When the forum is flooded with this kind of thread, it always signals new lows on the horizon. Over-confident cultists and bulltards are a good trading indicator for shorters.

[oda.krell]

Pointless, guys...




NLC is and will stay unignored. At least the guy has shown he has taste. The rest of you are a waste of pixels.

[exocytosis]

Pointless, guys...




NLC is and will stay unignored. At least the guy has shown he has taste. The rest of you are a waste of pixels.

Sorry for your loss.

[NotLambchop]

[SR anecdote and other stuffs]

Way to ignore the standing joke that there's inverse correlation between good news and price.

Protip:  If you're flicking a switch back and forth & the light bulb stays on, it's not because someone is rewiring the switch between your toggles.
Bitcoin is a game of Blindman's Bluff--don't overcomplicate it.

[oda.krell]

Way to ignore the standing joke that there's inverse correlation between good news and price.

Protip:  If you're flicking a switch back and forth & the light bulb stays on, it's not because someone is rewiring the switch between your toggles.
Bitcoin is a game of Blindman's Bluff--don't overcomplicate it.

Happy to see you now also learned about the reason that standing joke exists.

I'm a lot less sure about current market reaction to, say, auction news (i.e. whether it is actually a "bullish" bias change or not), than I am about the claim I made above. News do matter, in any market, otherwise there'd be no external influence on them. Problem is just that news don't matter in the way most people seem to think they do ("good news must mean price goes up!").

I'm sure you can think of more elegant ways to phrase similar insights (that the market acts a filter on the news, perhaps), but in either case: there is an interesting feedback loop between the market and the news that act upon it, even if you (for very noble reasons, I am sure) came to believe that Bitcoin is the unique market that can only ever go down, no matter what the external events are ^_^

[NotLambchop]

^What you got there is another hypothesis which can't be proven shown true or false.
Not very useful if you can't tell whether good news will drive BTC price up or down.

Your explanations border on "Rain makes for bad crops when the gods are angry, and good crops when their anger was appeased."  Substitute "news" for "rain" & strike it out.
It doesn't matter.
If the gods are angry, the crops will be bad.
The gods are angry



  ~Your Beneficent Reptilian Overlords

[Miz4r]

Sorry for your loss.

Can you feel your grip losing right now? It's slipping out of your hands man.

And what loss are you even talking about? Did someone die?

[bassclef]

Bull markets occur once enough coins/stock have been transferred from weak to strong hands. The huge transfer that occurred when we dipped to $166 was likely the last of the weak hands letting go, not being able to withstand any more losses. We haven't seen any interest to retest sub $200--there is simply not the volume to get there, and whales will not waste money trying if they can't attract much of a following when they sell.

[ssmc2]

Bull markets occur once enough coins/stock have been transferred from weak to strong hands. The huge transfer that occurred when we dipped to $166 was likely the last of the weak hands letting go, not being able to withstand any more losses. We haven't seen any interest to retest sub $200--there is simply not the volume to get there, and whales will not waste money trying if they can't attract much of a following when they sell.

TL;DR:  Suck it bears. 

[billyjoeallen]

Bull markets occur once enough coins/stock have been transferred from weak to strong hands. The huge transfer that occurred when we dipped to $166 was likely the last of the weak hands letting go, not being able to withstand any more losses. We haven't seen any interest to retest sub $200--there is simply not the volume to get there, and whales will not waste money trying if they can't attract much of a following when they sell.

TL;DR:  Suck it bears. 

I'm not convinced of that at all. There was a squeeze of margin longs who were overleveraged. That's all I know for sure. The beneficiaries of that squeeze could just as easily do it again should market conditions dictate.

[thompete]

Bull markets occur once enough coins/stock have been transferred from weak to strong hands. The huge transfer that occurred when we dipped to $166 was likely the last of the weak hands letting go, not being able to withstand any more losses. We haven't seen any interest to retest sub $200--there is simply not the volume to get there, and whales will not waste money trying if they can't attract much of a following when they sell.

TL;DR:  Suck it bears. 

Be careful now, they might you in the as later.

[bassclef]

Bull markets occur once enough coins/stock have been transferred from weak to strong hands. The huge transfer that occurred when we dipped to $166 was likely the last of the weak hands letting go, not being able to withstand any more losses. We haven't seen any interest to retest sub $200--there is simply not the volume to get there, and whales will not waste money trying if they can't attract much of a following when they sell.

TL;DR:  Suck it bears.  

I'm not convinced of that at all. There was a squeeze of margin longs who were overleveraged. That's all I know for sure. The beneficiaries of that squeeze could just as easily do it again should market conditions dictate.

Maybe, but whales need a reason to move the market to get others to follow (usually good or bad news). They can't simply orchestrate a rally or crash without a window of opportunity to act upon. It must be cost effective for them.

They needed a long bear market to squeeze the longs and create a panic over the Bitstamp news. Think of it as the final movement of a symphony. If they randomly created another crash tomorrow, not enough sellers would follow because they don't exist. There is no momentum. Play the last movement of a symphony by itself to a professional musician and it doesn't make sense without the context of the preceding movements.

[inca]

Bull markets occur once enough coins/stock have been transferred from weak to strong hands. The huge transfer that occurred when we dipped to $166 was likely the last of the weak hands letting go, not being able to withstand any more losses. We haven't seen any interest to retest sub $200--there is simply not the volume to get there, and whales will not waste money trying if they can't attract much of a following when they sell.

TL;DR:  Suck it bears.  

I'm not convinced of that at all. There was a squeeze of margin longs who were overleveraged. That's all I know for sure. The beneficiaries of that squeeze could just as easily do it again should market conditions dictate.

Maybe, but whales need a reason to move the market to get others to follow (usually good or bad news). They can't simply orchestrate a rally or crash without a window of opportunity to act upon. It must be cost effective for them.

They needed a long bear market to squeeze the longs and create a panic over the Bitstamp news. Think of it as the final movement of a symphony. If they randomly created another crash tomorrow, not enough sellers would follow because they don't exist. There is no momentum. Play the last movement of a symphony by itself to a professional musician and it doesn't make sense without the context of the preceding movements.

I am bullish what the emboldened text is not true. If this bear market has taught you anything it is that price dictates sentiment. If the price is shoved down by a few whale traders shorting the hell out of it then sentiment becomes bearish. Any news around the time may be used by market observers like Stolfi to justify the movements logically.

There is a limit to manipulation - upwards in terms of lack of new entrants willling to buy bitcoin at 1200 dollars (bags?!) and downwards in terms of lack of sellers at sub 200 dollar prices, but the price and direction can to a large degree be set by heavy speculators.

Based on the huge volume of coins which changed hands at 160 I would say the selling has petered out. We just need technical confirmation the end of the bear market to get the momo technical traders back on board.

[billyjoeallen]

Bull markets occur once enough coins/stock have been transferred from weak to strong hands. The huge transfer that occurred when we dipped to $166 was likely the last of the weak hands letting go, not being able to withstand any more losses. We haven't seen any interest to retest sub $200--there is simply not the volume to get there, and whales will not waste money trying if they can't attract much of a following when they sell.

TL;DR:  Suck it bears.  

I'm not convinced of that at all. There was a squeeze of margin longs who were overleveraged. That's all I know for sure. The beneficiaries of that squeeze could just as easily do it again should market conditions dictate.

Maybe, but whales need a reason to move the market to get others to follow (usually good or bad news). They can't simply orchestrate a rally or crash without a window of opportunity to act upon. It must be cost effective for them.

They needed a long bear market to squeeze the longs and create a panic over the Bitstamp news. Think of it as the final movement of a symphony. If they randomly created another crash tomorrow, not enough sellers would follow because they don't exist. There is no momentum. Play the last movement of a symphony by itself to a professional musician and it doesn't make sense without the context of the preceding movements.

Do you honestly think that people with millions or tens of millions of dollars in play are incapable of orchestrating a FUD campaign? Even if you see through the ruse, you would be foolish not to sell if you think others will fall for it for no other reason than to increase your holdings by BTFD. Meanwhile, the whales gain even more market power from their profits that they can use for the next raid. NO, the bear market is very unlikely to end from grass rotts action on our part. We need a massive infusion of new capital. Fortunately I think that may be happening. All these VCs plowing money into Bitcoin start-ups would be foolish not to also take a position in the underlying commodity.

[Brewins]

Considering we are almost stabilizing at 240, while some time ago the prices were around 210, I agree that bears are slowly losing grip

[Chef Ramsay]

Bull markets occur once enough coins/stock have been transferred from weak to strong hands. The huge transfer that occurred when we dipped to $166 was likely the last of the weak hands letting go, not being able to withstand any more losses. We haven't seen any interest to retest sub $200--there is simply not the volume to get there, and whales will not waste money trying if they can't attract much of a following when they sell.

I remember not too long ago when the bears made it seem like taboo to talk about shaking weak hands out of their coins and, consequentially, letting the strong have the ability to dictate future market movements. Interesting how that mentality has been shunned out of existence these days or relished to the point of embarrassment if one brings that concept up.

[azguard]

this remands me on something that i heard in Star Trek

"Resistance is futile"