For people still in denial about willy

[Newar]

[...]
I see it as bullish.

Certainly was at the time.

[picolo]

A chart says more than thousand words:
from: http://blog.wizsec.jp/2015/02/mtgox-investigation-release.html

As clearly seen, for a lot of the time (especially when the market was otherwise quiet), Willy had a significant presence, and it is hard to think that this would not have an effect on the market and in turn the exchange price, through its added buying pressure. There are even some suspicious incidents where Willy becomes absent and soon afterwards the market "corrects" itself to a lower price level.

Willy report from worldpress https://willyreport.wordpress.com/2014/05/25/the-willy-report-proof-of-massive-fraudulent-trading-activity-at-mt-gox-and-how-it-has-affected-the-price-of-bitcoin/

[oda.krell]

Alright. Let's say we are no longer "in denial" about willy.

The bot existed. Created plenty of buying pressure and drove up price.

So, how about the evidence that it wasn't a customer funded, exchange internal bot, running to split up large orders of gox' preferred clientswhales over a longer time span to minimize costs? As in: who says Willy didn't have the USD behind it?

I mean, I get it... I dislike gox as much as anyone in here. There's at least a real chance that they have been running a fractional reserve for a long time, and the last "bubble" was created without new money coming in (to a degree at least). However, "chance" is not the same as "proof". In your own words:

Get out of my thread if you resort to this kind of fallacious reasoning. ...

To conclude foul play only from the existence and activity of Willy is bullshit, by your own standards. Be consistent.

Alright, it's correct that we can't conclude that Willy operated with fake funds based on it's existence and the VIP client/whale theory is a possible explanation. At last what's going for it is innocent until proven guilty and I think that's also the reason why Mark Karpeles is still a free man.
The reason why to argue for the "Bots were funded with fake USD" is the context. It could explain the withdrawal problems and the subsequent "missing" Bitcoins.
Another argument is motivation: Why should a "VIP" want to acquire Bitcoins denominated in Bitcoin amounts, not based on a certain USD budget? Why only market orders?
Here we have the "Very deep pockets, vs infinitely deep pockets." And I argue that infinitely deep pockets only has one reasonable explanation: fake funds
The motivation for GOX: Why offer such a deal instead of giving them a regular account? They had motivation to earn fees.

Regarding foul play: At least that Willy & Markus operated during Market downtimes has been established. That's foul play IMO.

There's two ways to look at the "why was it denominated in BTC", after all, each sequence of the bot stopped at a certain USD amount (2.5M iirc). And I can absolutely see a motivation to run it: it's a spread out market order, essentially.

But I suppose we agree on the main points: even if it was fully funded, it was foul play in the sense that it ran during downtime of the site. I don't buy the idea that the entire run to $1200 was caused by Willy, and thus, if it wasn't funded, was entirely fake (Chinese gamblers would like a share of the glory as well ), but it probably had a substantial influence on price.

Just one of many ways gox screwed everyone over. Pathetic that Karpeles is not behind bars yet, and, yes: it probably threw the Bitcoin economy back substantially by decreasing even more the already low trust everyone had in exchanges.

[sgbett]

after careful consideration of all the points of view above....

definitely bullish. 

[UnDerDoG81]

yes, it seems like Willy caused a nasty bubble with a resulting year-long bear market causing significant negative sentiment both due to the volatility and the price drop.  Hopefully the exchange market has been taken over by more responsible companies now and in 2015 we'll see less volatility and instead a price that reflect the steady worldwide adoption.

95% of volume is traded in china(hong kong). ... Do you trust in china ? China does not respect basic human rights.

Says who? Uncle sam who respects all basic human rights?

[marcus_of_augustus]

after careful consideration of all the points of view above....

definitely bullish. 

i agree, willy or wont he?

now let's see some analysis on the anti-willy that got turned on July '14 just when the 600 breakout move was gaining momo

[Chef Ramsay]

after careful consideration of all the points of view above....

definitely bullish. 

i agree, willy or wont he?

now let's see some analysis on the anti-willy that got turned on July '14 just when the 600 breakout move was gaining momo

Very interesting commentary, I'm looking forward to more from such respectable participants such as you and sgbett. I think we're on the cusp of something that will totally blow the doors off this bear market trickshow.

[byronbb]

A chart says more than thousand words:

Imagine instead of being a troll-bear you bought bitcoins in 2011 when you joined this site.

[NotHatinJustTrollin]

A chart says more than thousand words:

Imagine instead of being a troll-bear you bought bitcoins in 2011 when you joined this site.

If you read his posts from back then you'll se that he actually did.

But whatever.

"I made money with a large scale pump&dump, therefore any argument from you to discredit it comes from the fact that you missed the train".


I know it's inconceivable for you that one might just prefer to be objective rather than to shill for personal profit, but yeah.

[inca]

after careful consideration of all the points of view above....

definitely bullish. 

i agree, willy or wont he?

now let's see some analysis on the anti-willy that got turned on July '14 just when the 600 breakout move was gaining momo

A glance at the short btc swap interest for the last 12 months shows most of the story. Since then the number of shorts rose from 5-10k to 25k at some points. Long interest dropped from 30 million to less than 15 million over the same time frame.

I don't buy the argument that this is correcting long held disparity in ratio between longs and shorts (currently about 3:1) as long margin positions can be opened with BTC or fiat. Whereas short positions are dependent upon available coins to borrow. There are currently about 3000 on finex, so not a lot really.

Now with some bullish sentiment forming and short interest still near all time highs, if long interest recovers then watch out above, especially if we breakout of the trend line technically.

[ElectricMucus]

A chart says more than thousand words:

Imagine instead of being a troll-bear you bought bitcoins in 2011 when you joined this site.

My extent of "trolling" here pales in comparison to what we're seeing in this tread alone by your fellow "troll-bulls":

after careful consideration of all the points of view above....

definitely bullish.  

i agree, willy or wont he?

now let's see some analysis on the anti-willy that got turned on July '14 just when the 600 breakout move was gaining momo

Very interesting commentary, I'm looking forward to more from such respectable participants such as you and sgbett. I think we're on the cusp of something that will totally blow the doors off this bear market trickshow.

nuff said

[inca]

A chart says more than thousand words:

Imagine instead of being a troll-bear you bought bitcoins in 2011 when you joined this site.

My extent of "trolling" here pales in comparison to what we're seeing in this tread alone by your fellow "troll-bulls":

after careful consideration of all the points of view above....

definitely bullish.  

i agree, willy or wont he?

now let's see some analysis on the anti-willy that got turned on July '14 just when the 600 breakout move was gaining momo

Very interesting commentary, I'm looking forward to more from such respectable participants such as you and sgbett. I think we're on the cusp of something that will totally blow the doors off this bear market trickshow.

nuff said

Says the guy who was bearish in 2013. Says the guy who questioned the solvency of coinbase before they acquired a further 75 million dollars of funding. You are just a stopped clock.

This willy bot analysis isn't analysis at all. It neatly ignores the fact that gox was 10% of global volume in the 2013 bull run. And anyway who cares a hoot about gox - we are almost a year on from its demise.

[ElectricMucus]

Get out if you are here to attack me, I don't have time for flamewars any more.

[ElectricMucus]

This willy bot analysis isn't analysis at all. It neatly ignores the fact that gox was 10% of global volume in the 2013 bull run. And anyway who cares a hoot about gox - we are almost a year on from its demise.

Yeah and all the while when we went down Chinese exchanges suddenly have "fake volume", now what is it?
Can't be both fake and real.

[inca]

This willy bot analysis isn't analysis at all. It neatly ignores the fact that gox was 10% of global volume in the 2013 bull run. And anyway who cares a hoot about gox - we are almost a year on from its demise.

Yeah and all the while when we went down Chinese exchanges suddenly have "fake volume", now what is it?
Can't be both fake and real.

It wasn't always no fee trading now was it..

[NotHatinJustTrollin]

This willy bot analysis isn't analysis at all. It neatly ignores the fact that gox was 10% of global volume in the 2013 bull run. And anyway who cares a hoot about gox - we are almost a year on from its demise.

Yeah and all the while when we went down Chinese exchanges suddenly have "fake volume", now what is it?
Can't be both fake and real.

It wasn't always no fee trading now was it..

During the 2013 run up to $1200 BTCChina (chinese exchange with the most volume back then) had no fees.
Then they suddenly introduced fees when the PBOC was talking about their "bans", and everybody switched to Huobi and Okcoin.

[NotHatinJustTrollin]

You can clearly see the difference between no fees VS fees, lol

[ajareselde]

This willy bot analysis isn't analysis at all. It neatly ignores the fact that gox was 10% of global volume in the 2013 bull run. And anyway who cares a hoot about gox - we are almost a year on from its demise.

Yeah and all the while when we went down Chinese exchanges suddenly have "fake volume", now what is it?
Can't be both fake and real.

I personaly dont believe in any of the trading volume chineese exchanges has during the bubble. Every time there was a run to the top, it was so artificial, and if other exchanges wouldnt follow the price hype,
china backed down also. Therefore, i believe its fake, and i never look at them while trying to analyse anything. You have stamp and btce, which are 99x more reliable than chineese ones.

cheers

[Torque]

Any of you guys that think for a second that now that Mt. Gox and Willy/Markus/Whatever are gone and the system can't be gamed again are nuts.

This market is still incredibly small, and incredibly controlled by a small number of deep pocket whales that have accounts in every major exchange.

As we speak, they are probably planning their next big runup score and how it will all go down.  They'll spend a year accumulating cheap coins off exchange, then turn on the turbo bots YET AGAIN on every major exchange.  And everyone will get caught without coins YET AGAIN and go "WTF?? Oh my!  Look at all that sudden demand from Average Joe!  Must be some type of country bank run!"  And of course the major media will be secretly paid to confirm it all

[yefi]

Alright. Let's say we are no longer "in denial" about willy.

The bot existed. Created plenty of buying pressure and drove up price.

So, how about the evidence that it wasn't a customer funded, exchange internal bot, running to split up large orders of gox' preferred clientswhales over a longer time span to minimize costs? As in: who says Willy didn't have the USD behind it?

I mean, I get it... I dislike gox as much as anyone in here. There's at least a real chance that they have been running a fractional reserve for a long time, and the last "bubble" was created without new money coming in (to a degree at least). However, "chance" is not the same as "proof".

First of all, there's no way Mark would program that shit. I think it's quite telling when Shrem said recently that he literally had to beg Mark to change a single line of code, and that they had to post him humus and schnitzels from New York to entice him away from his cat. But let's say the function was legitimate, why would you rotate the accounts? It makes no sense. If it was to split large whale orders, why not use one account or run accounts simultaneously?

It seems probable that it was a hack, made while the K man was blissfully oblivious, building a little mansion for Tibane up in his high-rise Tokyo apartment.