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Question: When will the Fed raise interest rates?
First half of 2015 - 1 (4.2%)
Second half of 2015 - 6 (25%)
2016 - 7 (29.2%)
2017 - 0 (0%)
2018 - 0 (0%)
Never - 10 (41.7%)
Total Voters: 24

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tabnloz
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March 07, 2015, 06:00:39 AM
 #21

I think oil will hover around 60 for the next 6 months pending the strategy of OPEC. I don't think the US will, or can, raise rates. The 'recovery' is largely illusory and any growth is achieved by pruning or by theft from other nations.

They only way I see a raise is to stop a large inflow seeking perceived safety (maybe a geopolitical event like Grexit, war etc). At this stage the game might very well be up and its every country for themselves.
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March 07, 2015, 03:26:48 PM
 #22


We have experienced bitcoin's volatility.
Oil is relatively more stable. It has been quite some time since we have seen $20/barrel.

Oil 'was' considered stable. Then huge drop happened last year and now it is unknown for us if oil will regain its previous price of around $100.

It is all in relative terms.
There have been oil shocks as well, with the price increasing rapidly.
The current fall is something new.
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March 07, 2015, 06:49:37 PM
 #23

Since the collapse of oil has killed inflation, putting it well below the Fed's 2% target, I'm voting that they'll delay to 2016.

The las FOMC shows they won't raise rates soon.

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March 18, 2015, 06:16:55 PM
 #24

I would love to see 20 dollar oil. Low energy cost can bring about a boom due to funds being freed up for other uses. Transportation costs also drop so consumer goods would be cheaper as well.

Look at the strength of the dollar to see where oil will go. If the dollar continues to rise oil will get cheaper.

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March 18, 2015, 06:26:24 PM
 #25

I would love to see 20 dollar oil. Low energy cost can bring about a boom due to funds being freed up for other uses. Transportation costs also drop so consumer goods would be cheaper as well.

Look at the strength of the dollar to see where oil will go. If the dollar continues to rise oil will get cheaper.

Oil will not go down to $20.  It costs far more than $20 to extract a barrel of oil from the ground, especially in America with all the frackers.
Essentially only a few cheap and easy play remain viable long term at $20 a barrel, it would be below the historical low prices and cannot be maintained.

The price of gasoline has been steadily rising recently in America, figure that one out, so that won't be helping the economy.  Demand will also rise if gas prices fall, so expect a sharp rise when production falls and demand rises.


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GreenStox
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March 18, 2015, 06:29:51 PM
 #26

Guys, the oil collapse saved their greedy arses for now, however in the long term that will be disruptive for US oil businesses that employ millions of people.

So yes the nearly purchasing power increase will be hidden by the real problems of more job losses when the oil sector implodes.

So they will just do QE4 to prop up the oil price once again, that is inevitable. So say goodbye to rate hike, and embrace the upcoming hyperinflation worldwide...

Starring: Japan and Greece , *grabs popcorn*

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GreenStox
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March 18, 2015, 07:05:46 PM
 #27


The US will step over the dead to reach the summit as it always does.

Technology and household income are the beneficiaries.


Yes they are in the short term, but all the mal-investment in the oil sector will be lost as the mainstream media is the most unreliable investment advisor out there. If the bubble burts those investors will lose all their money, and the workers in the oil sector will lose all their jobs.



QE would be almost as stupid as raising rates which it looks like they almost suicidally will do despite the deflation that should linger for most of 2015 and possibly into 2016 at this rate.

There simply currently is not enough cash in the developed world.  This explains the other half of the cryptocurrency industry's collapse.

Japan has inflationary erectile dyfunction, which is a stupid policy and probably hurting their economy anyways.

The US & EU will only have problems if they can't soak back up the bank reserves by not selling their long-term holdings at a discount; otherwise, they will merely continue with their socialist malaise.

If they don't raise the rates then they cant do it in the future ever, actually they already passed the event horizon, the debt is too big, if they raise rates, they go bankrupt, if they don't they go in hyperinflation (slowly), dragging all the reserve-holders in it aswell. If BRICKS drop the USD, then it will be even faster.

The only way out of this mess for the USA is to cut the military spending to Switzerlands's military size, and all their social spending too on those shady spying stuff and do a benefit to the world.

Also then they can switch to gold standard, and improve their currency, and in a deflationary system you don't need pensions, so they can drop that too.

So in 1 world, libertarianism can save them...

BUT


Ofcourse they won't do that, they are now preparing to attack Syria and Venezuela, so the war machine continues...

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vvv8
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March 18, 2015, 07:59:35 PM
 #28


The US will step over the dead to reach the summit as it always does.

Technology and household income are the beneficiaries.


Yes they are in the short term, but all the mal-investment in the oil sector will be lost as the mainstream media is the most unreliable investment advisor out there. If the bubble burts those investors will lose all their money, and the workers in the oil sector will lose all their jobs.



QE would be almost as stupid as raising rates which it looks like they almost suicidally will do despite the deflation that should linger for most of 2015 and possibly into 2016 at this rate.

There simply currently is not enough cash in the developed world.  This explains the other half of the cryptocurrency industry's collapse.

Japan has inflationary erectile dyfunction, which is a stupid policy and probably hurting their economy anyways.

The US & EU will only have problems if they can't soak back up the bank reserves by not selling their long-term holdings at a discount; otherwise, they will merely continue with their socialist malaise.

If they don't raise the rates then they cant do it in the future ever, actually they already passed the event horizon, the debt is too big, if they raise rates, they go bankrupt, if they don't they go in hyperinflation (slowly), dragging all the reserve-holders in it aswell. If BRICKS drop the USD, then it will be even faster.

The only way out of this mess for the USA is to cut the military spending to Switzerlands's military size, and all their social spending too on those shady spying stuff and do a benefit to the world.

Also then they can switch to gold standard, and improve their currency, and in a deflationary system you don't need pensions, so they can drop that too.

So in 1 world, libertarianism can save them...

BUT


Ofcourse they won't do that, they are now preparing to attack Syria and Venezuela, so the war machine continues...

There's no way they will heavily cut military spending and/or close bases and retreat. If they do that many governments will collapse and there will be a power vacuum the size of 100 elephants' anuses put together
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March 18, 2015, 08:14:32 PM
 #29

There's no way they will heavily cut military spending and/or close bases and retreat. If they do that many governments will collapse and there will be a power vacuum the size of 100 elephants' anuses put together

You mean like the French Revolution, Solonion Athens, and every other descent to mob rule?

The US seems to be on an excellent track to following EU.  Russia & China will only disarm for lack of funds as their recessions take on speed and magnitude.  In fact, China's turned to selling instead of procuring.

Russia and China are not going to disarm due to a lack of funds lol...  Why on Earth would you think something insane like that?

There are too many special & powerful interests' that will make sure the U.S stays in its current position.

We live in an age where technology is a weapon and guess who owns patents, and produces the best technology?

If they are always 10 steps ahead of you, how can you remove or topple them ? JMHO
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March 18, 2015, 09:46:44 PM
 #30


Russia and China are not going to disarm due to a lack of funds lol...  Why on Earth would you think something insane like that?

There are too many special & powerful interests' that will make sure the U.S stays in its current position.

We live in an age where technology is a weapon and guess who owns patents, and produces the best technology?

If they are always 10 steps ahead of you, how can you remove or topple them ? JMHO

China is already number 1 economy in the world. And guess what China does the best? Steal patents and does not care about international copyright law.
If you have something good they will steal it and implement it in their toys. So why work hard and research when you just simply borrow everything?
GreenStox
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March 18, 2015, 09:56:40 PM
 #31



There's no way they will heavily cut military spending and/or close bases and retreat. If they do that many governments will collapse and there will be a power vacuum the size of 100 elephants' anuses put together

Yep, especially now since the tensions with Russia and Syria are getting big.

Also they are not thinking about cutting other social(ist) spending aswell, pension, government worker salary, education,etc.

The deficit hole is getting bigger and bigger, so they will need to invade again to loot some country.

Probably Venezuela since it has oil.


Russia and China are not going to disarm due to a lack of funds lol...  Why on Earth would you think something insane like that?

There are too many special & powerful interests' that will make sure the U.S stays in its current position.

We live in an age where technology is a weapon and guess who owns patents, and produces the best technology?

If they are always 10 steps ahead of you, how can you remove or topple them ? JMHO

China is already number 1 economy in the world. And guess what China does the best? Steal patents and does not care about international copyright law.
If you have something good they will steal it and implement it in their toys. So why work hard and research when you just simply borrow everything?

I dont agree with patent laws, its bogus and monopolistic. Copyright, trademark and trade secrets are ok for intellectual property, but patents are just monopolistic and there are million things that can go wrong, like in the 1800's where thief inventors steal eachother's invention...

Also trade secrets should be kept secret, industrial espionage is not nice, and that should be heavily punished, but these patent laws in itself are really useless...

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March 19, 2015, 07:20:09 AM
 #32

Yeah I think another war is imminent. The drums have been sounded for some time now, all you gotta do is turn on some T.V:)
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March 19, 2015, 01:50:18 PM
 #33


Russia and China are not going to disarm due to a lack of funds lol...  Why on Earth would you think something insane like that?

There are too many special & powerful interests' that will make sure the U.S stays in its current position.

We live in an age where technology is a weapon and guess who owns patents, and produces the best technology?

If they are always 10 steps ahead of you, how can you remove or topple them ? JMHO

China is already number 1 economy in the world. And guess what China does the best? Steal patents and does not care about international copyright law.
If you have something good they will steal it and implement it in their toys. So why work hard and research when you just simply borrow everything?
No, China is not the  number 1 economy in the world.
Yes, The patents protection is awful  in China, it resist innovation, we can't copy everything, it's not a good thing.
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March 19, 2015, 02:12:08 PM
 #34

I would love to see 20 dollar oil. Low energy cost can bring about a boom due to funds being freed up for other uses. Transportation costs also drop so consumer goods would be cheaper as well.

Look at the strength of the dollar to see where oil will go. If the dollar continues to rise oil will get cheaper.

Oil will not go down to $20.  It costs far more than $20 to extract a barrel of oil from the ground, especially in America with all the frackers.
Essentially only a few cheap and easy play remain viable long term at $20 a barrel, it would be below the historical low prices and cannot be maintained.

The price of gasoline has been steadily rising recently in America, figure that one out, so that won't be helping the economy.  Demand will also rise if gas prices fall, so expect a sharp rise when production falls and demand rises.

There will always be counter pressures on price movement regardless of direction. I would love to see it drop to $20 but I don't expect it. The dollar would have to rise dramatically for that to happen. A stronger dollar and lower energy costs are a great thing for any economy so while I don't expect it I would love to see it.

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