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Question: When will the Fed raise interest rates?
First half of 2015 - 1 (4.2%)
Second half of 2015 - 6 (25%)
2016 - 7 (29.2%)
2017 - 0 (0%)
2018 - 0 (0%)
Never - 10 (41.7%)
Total Voters: 24

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ChicagoSchooler
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February 21, 2015, 08:54:30 PM
 #1

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February 21, 2015, 09:01:03 PM
 #2

You forgot never, and NIRP
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February 22, 2015, 09:17:18 AM
 #3

I think the market has already priced in for a rate increase. It's just a matter of time that this happens.

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February 22, 2015, 08:55:57 PM
 #4

I don't think the collapse of oil will have as much negative effect on rates as you may think. Cheaper oil frees up ordinary income to be used to buy things, which stimulates the economy. When the economy picks up the Fed will raise rates.

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February 22, 2015, 11:18:23 PM
 #5

You forgot never, and NIRP


Well said. I also vote that they most likely will never increase rates by any reasonable amount (say > 3%) and we even stand a possibility of negative rates. The NIRP is expanding, get ready for it Tongue

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February 27, 2015, 01:44:33 AM
 #6

Small adjustment like interest rate is irrelevant now, the base money supply has increased by 500% since 2008. If GDP increase 5% per year, it will take about 30 years to reach that amount of money supply, and they have done it in 6 years, so they will not need to print money for the next 24 years, is that possible?

Since all of those money is already in the hands of commercial banks, we could imagine that there would be huge inflation due to 5x more money out there, but there was no inflation. This indicated that no matter how much money they print, money just can't get into the economy in any meaningful way. In fact banks have raised the criteria to get a loan, and the real income of the whole society is going down due to less loan and less consumption

Now people's mindset have changed to saving, that will last for decades, and any tightening of money supply will trigger a recession for sure

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February 27, 2015, 08:08:51 AM
 #7

How long do you think till new crysis when they raise the rates?
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February 27, 2015, 10:43:45 AM
 #8

Oil isn't going to $20 (you can quote me on that).  America will keep pumping the old wells but investment has fallen so much already that production is already bound to fall.
People talk abut efficiency savings, that is marginal and overcome by a growth in population.

I expect $100 oil within the next 2 years, it might not stay that high, but I think it will reach that high.


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February 27, 2015, 12:20:47 PM
 #9


The money is technically at deposit by the commercial banks at the Fed.  They can't loan them out because the creditworthy aren't demanding, and they aren't supplying the uncreditworthy.

With that large of an increase in the supply of money, an inflation would normally be expected, but velocity dropping to record lows prevented it.

People are tapped out after foolishly selling at the bottom of a housing collapse, taking most families source of net worth and transferring it to hedge funds.  It's the stock market's turn to make us think we're richer than we really are.  We should be hearing more of that over the next few years.

People were forced into default, and that was planned, to transfer the house ownership to banks, and then central banks print some money to buy it to support the house value

Anyway all those money are created out of nothing, it is a race between banks playing more tricks and people finally realizing the scam and abandon the currency like what happened in Mississippi bubble. But unlike during Mississippi bubble, now there is no gold convertibility, it is difficult to discredit fiat money at this stage

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February 27, 2015, 04:34:40 PM
 #10

before the btc halving imho
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March 02, 2015, 03:58:16 AM
 #11

Rates will not rise until the market tears the whole thing apart.

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March 04, 2015, 12:48:16 AM
 #12

there is too much debt in the US and if the FED raises rates it will surely burst the stock bubble and probably start a new recession. If you read their statements they don't say that they are going to raise rates..they say they may start THINKING of raising rates, which means they are not even considering a rate rise for now..

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March 04, 2015, 04:03:11 PM
 #13

Crude collapsing towards $20?
That doesn't look like happening any time soon.
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March 04, 2015, 07:18:53 PM
 #14

Interesting diagram. And to be honest I think current low oil prices are only beginning of further drops but definitely not to $20 per barrel. More like $40 in my opinion is max price drop than could happen.


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March 04, 2015, 09:48:38 PM
 #15

Since the collapse of oil has killed inflation, putting it well below the Fed's 2% target, I'm voting that they'll delay to 2016.

We are not heading to $20 dollars a barrel this is the same kind of statement like bitcoin is going to $10,000 or $1 they are just not happening lol

Keep up the good work the fed i have 0 interest in these are the biggest scammers in history



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March 06, 2015, 12:11:15 AM
 #16

Since the collapse of oil has killed inflation, putting it well below the Fed's 2% target, I'm voting that they'll delay to 2016.

We are not heading to $20 dollars a barrel this is the same kind of statement like bitcoin is going to $10,000 or $1 they are just not happening lol

Keep up the good work the fed i have 0 interest in these are the biggest scammers in history

We have experienced bitcoin's volatility.
Oil is relatively more stable. It has been quite some time since we have seen $20/barrel.
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March 06, 2015, 06:28:54 PM
 #17

I think for now it's too early to tell. The fed likely won't touch rates until summer anyway, and quite a bit can happen in the intervening months. If the economy gets worse they'll probably keep rates as-is. But if it keeps plodding along at the current pace, they might set the rates to 1/4%, just so they can officially lift off from zero.

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March 06, 2015, 10:00:18 PM
 #18

I'd say they'll delay it to 2016, we're already in 2015 and it's still not clear where the whole oil crisis is going.
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March 06, 2015, 10:18:43 PM
 #19


We have experienced bitcoin's volatility.
Oil is relatively more stable. It has been quite some time since we have seen $20/barrel.
Oil 'was' considered stable. Then huge drop happened last year and now it is unknown for us if oil will regain its previous price of around $100.


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johnyj
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Beyond Imagination


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March 06, 2015, 11:06:15 PM
 #20

Actually I think they will raise the rate to a very high level, since there will never be a liquidity crisis in the foreseeable future. Now banks are sitting on a mountain of cash that is enough for the future 30 years, and those cash will earn them huge amount of interest in a high rate environment

So, when higher rates kill the expansion for normal business, it generated huge income for banking class, so the one that is most benefited from a higher rate is banks. They will become the major spender and driver for economy

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