We are headed to $50

[awais3344_1]

I think the price can't go to $50. Too many people will hop to buy in. But I think price do need to decline quite a lot. People are still waiting for a major decline to hop in. And only after a shakeout we can go up much more. Not a lot of people are willing to buy at these prices anymore.

[innocent93]

I would be bearish unless it breakout 260$, surely, in the short time.

[uki]

I would be bearish unless it breakout 260$, surely, in the short time.

we may as well observe more of the sideways trend, until some bigger correction in the stock market occurs (May?, before summer?).
then probably, there will be some unallocated money looking for more gains, and BTC maybe one of the candidates.
So, ladies and gents, it is the accumulation time!

[mishax1]

50$ ?  not gonna happen..  I have a buy order @ 200 

[ajareselde]

I've been thinking a lot about the current state of affairs, and the picture has started to become clear.  This bear market is as painful (and in many ways more painful) as the 2011-2012 bear market.  That suggests that the "level" of the current bear market within the cycle corresponds to that previous bear market.

That means that the corresponding bull markets are:

$0 ---> $32
$2 ---> $1160

In order for a bull market to be born, the price has to revisit very close to the bull market peak one cycle back.  That's the only way the weak hands will be shaken out.  We've had a lot of weak hands who still think every $20 upswing is the start of a new bubble, who think making money in Bitcoin is easy, and who still have "faith" in the price without knowing the first thing about the technology.  They need to be shaken out because they're weak hands; they're dumb money.  Only when they're replaced by stronger hands who think long term and know better Bitcoin's place in the future world will the new bull market be born.  

In other words, the price has to get close to $32.  And by that, I don't mean "close" in linear terms, but rather, in log terms, so there's more room for error.  I think the final low will be something more like $50-$80.  

I'm going to be buying hand-over-fist at those levels from the weak hands who will panic sell.

Also, based on some fractal similarity I'm seeing--which I will divulge later after the new bull starts--the next bull will be powerful, as powerful on a log scale as the prior two full cycles combined.  When the dumb money panics, it will be the buying opportunity of a lifetime.

nah, i see why you think it will happen, but ure wrong imo.
Just take a look at litecoin, 50k $ each day for mined coins, and price is still the same, and the coin is useless, if ure in doubt just take a look at this corpse (litecoin.org)


but still some people buy it because theres alot of money around the crypto (mainy from bitcoin bubble), and that same money wont allow double digits to happen, 100-ish , maybe but 50$ not a chance.

cheers

[finnile]

Think the OP's being very pessimistic. Can't see the price going down that much, if it goes anywhere near $50 I'll be able to reach my goal of over thousand btc

Thats what people said when the price was at 500 , for it being at 300.

[galdur]

Bitcoin hasn´t seemed to be on the verge of the next collapse for a whopping month now so maybe last month´s bottom was it. If by some miracle it gets to say 350 and holds that level for a few weeks I´ll probably start getting bullish.

[Coinshot]

Not a chance. Capitulation has happened, and 160 was it. If you keep waiting for 50, you will end up not getting into and missing the rally.

[Alonzo Ewing]

Aren't you ignoring the 2013 peak, 266 usd, which did crash to a bit below 40 before the runup to 1160?

No, but that is a good question.  The bubble that reached 1160 is best thought of as a continuation of the bubbled that reached 260.  In between, there was very little pain.  Certainly nothing like what we've seen over the last 14 months.  The only thing comparable to the current bear market was the aftermath of the bubble to 32.  Hence, there have been exactly TWO meaningful bubble cycles in Bitcoin's history:

0--->32
2--->1160

Yes, there have been smaller rallies along the way, but based on the division of the price history around these protracted bear markets, the above categorization is the only one that makes sense.

[Alonzo Ewing]

Not a chance. Capitulation has happened, and 160 was it. If you keep waiting for 50, you will end up not getting into and missing the rally.

You may well be right.  Capitulation of a sorts did happen, just like in April 2014.  It remains to be seen whether it was the final capitulation.

I'm already well in.  I'm only planning to buy more if it gets to $50-80.

[lyth0s]

Not a chance. Capitulation has happened, and 160 was it. If you keep waiting for 50, you will end up not getting into and missing the rally.

You may well be right.  Capitulation of a sorts did happen, just like in April 2014.  It remains to be seen whether it was the final capitulation.

I'm already well in.  I'm only planning to buy more if it gets to $50-80.

It may be beneficial for you to utilize dollar cost averaging. Some would argue that it's the only way to beat the market long term.

[Q7]

Also, based on some fractal similarity I'm seeing--which I will divulge later after the new bull starts--the next bull will be powerful, as powerful on a log scale as the prior two full cycles combined.  When the dumb money panics, it will be the buying opportunity of a lifetime.

that is if we ever reached that level. I always believe $100 should be the psychological level, that is if anybody is willing to dump at that price, there will never be short of buyers. So technically it will bounce off nicely and return back to much higher level. And yes, it's a buying opportunity of a lifetime. And our chance to be early adopters.

[ndnh]

I have a small buy order at $200.

Even that isn't getting filled after waiting weeks. There is no way bitcoin will reach $50.

Beyond impossible.

[jcoin200]

I have a small buy order at $200.

Even that isn't getting filled after waiting weeks. There is no way bitcoin will reach $50.

Beyond impossible.

No, I'd say its becoming more and more possible every day.  I just saw some major japanese retailer saying they are considering accepting btc, and historically that makes the price drop cause they instantly convert to fiat.  I think double digits are entirely possible, although that price may only last briefly...

[keyscore44]

Double digits would be depressing as hell but on the flip side it would give us all a chance to accumulate more btc. No more early adopter syndrome.

[spazzdla]

Double digits would be depressing as hell but on the flip side it would give us all a chance to accumulate more btc. No more early adopter syndrome.

It would appear this might be the reason we don't see sub $100... I really thought we where going there but I am unsure anymore.. So many people wanting to buy at sub $100 I have a feeling the same group will put buys in at sub $150..

[galdur]

I have a small buy order at $200.

Even that isn't getting filled after waiting weeks. There is no way bitcoin will reach $50.

Beyond impossible.

No, I'd say its becoming more and more possible every day.  I just saw some major japanese retailer saying they are considering accepting btc, and historically that makes the price drop cause they instantly convert to fiat.  I think double digits are entirely possible, although that price may only last briefly...

Persistently anemic volume and never any buying interest to speak of. That is the problem for the price of bitcoin. Forget all the usual excuses from bitcoin experts and geniuses. Focus on what they avoid discussing.

[gentlemand]

Persistently anemic volume and never any buying interest to speak of. That is the problem for the price of bitcoin. Forget all the usual excuses from bitcoin experts and geniuses. Focus on what they avoid discussing.

The space is in limbo at present. Believers have spent a lot of their reserves. Newbies should rightly be cautious taking the last few months into account. I think it'll be pretty dead until there are some more compelling reasons to pile in.

[D05GTO]

Guess you guys missed the Fed Auction.   I believe things are in a holding pattern to keep money away from the fed.   Am I the only one that can see this?  So far, I haven't seen any compelling evidence to suggest anemic volume will hold true for very long.   

Just an example, if I wanted to invest right now. Would definitely put my hand in for the fed auction and not on an exchange right now.  Afterwards would be a totally different scenario.

[galdur]

Guess you guys missed the Fed Auction.   I believe things are in a holding pattern to keep money away from the fed.   Am I the only one that can see this?  So far, I haven't seen any compelling evidence to suggest anemic volume will hold true for very long.   

Just an example, if I wanted to invest right now. Would definitely put my hand in for the fed auction and not on an exchange right now.  Afterwards would be a totally different scenario.

Hold for very long ?  Get a grip.

Bitcoin volume has been anemic and there has been no buying interest for over a year. For some reason it hasn´t seemed to be on the verge of collapsing to the next bottom for a whopping month now but I wouldn´t hold my breath.