Bitcoin Forum

I've been thinking a lot about the current state of affairs, and the picture has started to become clear.  This bear market is as painful (and in many ways more painful) as the 2011-2012 bear market.  That suggests that the "level" of the current bear market within the cycle corresponds to that previous bear market.

That means that the corresponding bull markets are:

$0 ---> $32
$2 ---> $1160

In order for a bull market to be born, the price has to revisit very close to the bull market peak one cycle back.  That's the only way the weak hands will be shaken out.  We've had a lot of weak hands who still think every $20 upswing is the start of a new bubble, who think making money in Bitcoin is easy, and who still have "faith" in the price without knowing the first thing about the technology.  They need to be shaken out because they're weak hands; they're dumb money.  Only when they're replaced by stronger hands who think long term and know better Bitcoin's place in the future world will the new bull market be born. 

In other words, the price has to get close to $32.  And by that, I don't mean "close" in linear terms, but rather, in log terms, so there's more room for error.  I think the final low will be something more like $50-$80. 

I'm going to be buying hand-over-fist at those levels from the weak hands who will panic sell.

Also, based on some fractal similarity I'm seeing--which I will divulge later after the new bull starts--the next bull will be powerful, as powerful on a log scale as the prior two full cycles combined.  When the dumb money panics, it will be the buying opportunity of a lifetime.

$50 @ when?    :o

2017? or 2020?    ???

My guess is in the next month or two or three.

Well, then hopefully @ $50 the news specials will show how high the price once was and we'll get a mega trend reversal once the viewers go all in.

Great! Just received my '14 bonus, $50 would allow me to buy a ton of coins.

I would not at all complain if this were to happen - it would be a great chance get really cheap coins.

After the short to 50 run it up to 150 for 3X profit then short to 50 again

Or you will get caught with your pants down at $150 as we zoom right past it. If you really do have a short that you're holding all the way down to $50 I'd be fun for you to actually show us some proof of it so when you get called on it I can have someone to joke around with :P

whatever the price is bitcoin will still be used and continue to be improved.

yeah, even if it never goes back to triple digits, we're all still winners if we can keep using BTC. every day is a party in BTC land. http://www.mydisplayimage.com/aim/premium/anim_coke.gif

I do not think anyone can accurately  detect where the BTC price will go. The currency is still fairly new and still needs a few years for charts, stats, and other data to help predict future rise and falls.

I mean the stock market has been around for a while and folks still have a hard time predicting exactly where it may go day by day. However heavy accurate speculation exists and sometime right on the money. But with digital currency predictions it's still too soon. The only concrete evidence we know of is when the price dives significantly in a very short time usually has to do with some horrible horrible news and good news does not really make a difference as of yet. 

Show us the "proof", until then I call the OP a FUDster.

Aren't you ignoring the 2013 peak, 266 usd, which did crash to a bit below 40 before the runup to 1160?

that is actually a good point. Talking about big scheme of things, one usually did not mention granularity and such "quick" events may be filtered out.
So if we apply the analysis from the OP to the levels you mentioned, revisiting somewhere around $200 should theoretically end the correction.

I am guessing around 2200. When we have superior technology that bitcoin.

Or it could be rare, put in a museum, with 99.999% of the coins lost. Valued at $1 million per satoshi.

you missed a zero, there is better chance we are headed to 500 than 50

This thread should get a sticky and a golden medal for being todays most hilarious thread  :D

Fingers crossed. I would buy some more all way down and be happy about cause even this price now around 250$ is cheap as hell.

Very much in line with what OP posted is the guide on how to interpret the price of BTC.
It's not mine, but I fully agree with the author, as he pretty much nails it:

Think the OP's being very pessimistic. Can't see the price going down that much, if it goes anywhere near $50 I'll be able to reach my goal of over thousand btc ;)

I think the price can't go to $50. Too many people will hop to buy in. But I think price do need to decline quite a lot. People are still waiting for a major decline to hop in. And only after a shakeout we can go up much more. Not a lot of people are willing to buy at these prices anymore.

I would be bearish unless it breakout 260$, surely, in the short time.

we may as well observe more of the sideways trend, until some bigger correction in the stock market occurs (May?, before summer?).
then probably, there will be some unallocated money looking for more gains, and BTC maybe one of the candidates.
So, ladies and gents, it is the accumulation time!

50$ ?  not gonna happen..  I have a buy order @ 200  ;D

nah, i see why you think it will happen, but ure wrong imo.
Just take a look at litecoin, 50k $ each day for mined coins, and price is still the same, and the coin is useless, if ure in doubt just take a look at this corpse (litecoin.org)
http://traffic.alexa.com/graph?o=lt&y=t&b=ffffff&n=666666&f=999999&r=1y&t=2&z=30&c=1&h=150&w=340&u=litecoin.org

but still some people buy it because theres alot of money around the crypto (mainy from bitcoin bubble), and that same money wont allow double digits to happen, 100-ish , maybe but 50$ not a chance.

cheers

Thats what people said when the price was at 500 , for it being at 300.

Bitcoin hasn´t seemed to be on the verge of the next collapse for a whopping month now so maybe last month´s bottom was it. If by some miracle it gets to say 350 and holds that level for a few weeks I´ll probably start getting bullish.

Not a chance. Capitulation has happened, and 160 was it. If you keep waiting for 50, you will end up not getting into and missing the rally.

No, but that is a good question.  The bubble that reached 1160 is best thought of as a continuation of the bubbled that reached 260.  In between, there was very little pain.  Certainly nothing like what we've seen over the last 14 months.  The only thing comparable to the current bear market was the aftermath of the bubble to 32.  Hence, there have been exactly TWO meaningful bubble cycles in Bitcoin's history:

0--->32
2--->1160

Yes, there have been smaller rallies along the way, but based on the division of the price history around these protracted bear markets, the above categorization is the only one that makes sense.

You may well be right.  Capitulation of a sorts did happen, just like in April 2014.  It remains to be seen whether it was the final capitulation.

I'm already well in.  I'm only planning to buy more if it gets to $50-80.

It may be beneficial for you to utilize dollar cost averaging. Some would argue that it's the only way to beat the market long term.

that is if we ever reached that level. I always believe $100 should be the psychological level, that is if anybody is willing to dump at that price, there will never be short of buyers. So technically it will bounce off nicely and return back to much higher level. And yes, it's a buying opportunity of a lifetime. And our chance to be early adopters.

I have a small buy order at $200.

Even that isn't getting filled after waiting weeks. There is no way bitcoin will reach $50.

Beyond impossible. ;)

No, I'd say its becoming more and more possible every day.  I just saw some major japanese retailer saying they are considering accepting btc, and historically that makes the price drop cause they instantly convert to fiat.  I think double digits are entirely possible, although that price may only last briefly...

Double digits would be depressing as hell but on the flip side it would give us all a chance to accumulate more btc. No more early adopter syndrome.

It would appear this might be the reason we don't see sub $100... I really thought we where going there but I am unsure anymore.. So many people wanting to buy at sub $100 I have a feeling the same group will put buys in at sub $150..

Persistently anemic volume and never any buying interest to speak of. That is the problem for the price of bitcoin. Forget all the usual excuses from bitcoin experts and geniuses. Focus on what they avoid discussing.

The space is in limbo at present. Believers have spent a lot of their reserves. Newbies should rightly be cautious taking the last few months into account. I think it'll be pretty dead until there are some more compelling reasons to pile in.

Guess you guys missed the Fed Auction.   I believe things are in a holding pattern to keep money away from the fed.   Am I the only one that can see this?  So far, I haven't seen any compelling evidence to suggest anemic volume will hold true for very long.   

Just an example, if I wanted to invest right now. Would definitely put my hand in for the fed auction and not on an exchange right now.  Afterwards would be a totally different scenario.

Hold for very long ?  Get a grip.

Bitcoin volume has been anemic and there has been no buying interest for over a year. For some reason it hasn´t seemed to be on the verge of collapsing to the next bottom for a whopping month now but I wouldn´t hold my breath.

Hold for very long?  I guess since it's about 1% of my investments. Will I continue to hold.. yeah probably another 15 years until I want to invest into something else.   Actually of that 1% in Bitcoin.. about 20% of that goes into startups.  Diversity is key to investing.   I wouldn't say anemic volume either.  Just look at some charts.  Jan/Feb had some heavy volume at the bottom of the curve.   That indicates to me there is a lot of pressure in that range that won't be breeched anytime soon.

My grip is firm thank you :D

It´s good that your grip is firm. Maybe you need to work on the attention span. What I was referring to was

15 years is a good amount to hold. Diversifying is good but don't get too lost, most successful long term traders don't hold more than 10 assets.

I think we are still in the horizontal trend  within the range $200-240 and we won't see much lower than the lower band of that channel. 1-handle yes for some short time again is possible, but I don't think price will drop to double digit territory.

www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-de-launches-integration-with-fidor-bank-accounts/
http://www.coindesk.com/t-mobile-poland-trials-bitcoin-top-ups-for-mobile-customers/
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-foundation-launches-public-education-campaign-bitcoin/

just to name a few ..

fact is that there are compelling reasons to pile in, but the traders need to shake off the feeling last year has given them.
once the momentum builds up, there will be another bullrun.

cheers

This horizontal trend will continue for some time. A major bull market run could break out close to the block reward halving in 2016.

I just don't believe that anything you are saying is true. You cannot predict the price you cannot predict anything related to price and volume.
Its all a black swan. You will soon realise that alll of your predictions will fail and the things would go in haphazardous directions. You know exactly equal to what an illiterate knows about the prices.

Ultimately nobody can predict the future with 100% certainty. Sometimes people make predictions and get it right through luck or skill, but nobody gets it right every time.

Enough already. Guys, put this thread out of its misery.

the next 2 months will be critical :D

That is the best joke I have ever heard.

Its so funny to see people spread FUD like this and some are dumb enough to believe it.

They are just creating panic in around here. They deserve a negative trust on the forum.
People should stop believing in them.

Most of the threads in the speculation subsection look like that and I doubt that they bring anything new on the table.
Each day there are at least two new threads each screaming we are now going to crash/to the moon, but there is no substance or at least well-founded analysis in it.

That is true, although it's always fun to look back and see who was right or, in this case, wrong.

You meant to post this in the Havelock thread, right?

Doesn't matter if it goes back to 50, that just means more cheap coins for visionaries.

Exactly!  How is that even FUD?!

Too bad that men in white coats haven´t picked this fruitcake up YET.

We are not heading to anything . The price seems pretty stable to me so there isn't nothing to worry about . Unless huge exchangers gets hacked one after the other just like it's happening and it started happening since late 2014 .

~ Madness

I don´t read this junk. Maybe it´ll be garbage collectors.

Not even Warren Buffet sees it comming, it's kinda funny being a pioneer, all these "old respectable people" being objectively wrong as fuck.

I remember when those stodgy old clowns laughed at me for investing in BTCeanie BTCabies.
Look at me now 8)

$50 is possible, but the strong fundamentals could make Right Now a true once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to catch the first ever move towards $5,000. No one knows for certain, and that makes it more exciting.  :)

Well, when you have a marketplace that is totally devoid of any regulation and law enforcement and thereby make it a magnet for criminals then all confidence and trust goes out the window. Result: no volume, no buying interest, constantly tanking price of what is being traded in that marketplace. It isn´t really much of a rocket science and it has always been eminently predictable.

lol. Then again why would he know? When I have a software question I generally don't look for a senior citizen.

The usual excuses from the usual retards were old ages ago. Focus on what they avoid mentioning.

I am really glad to see people criticising these troll boxes and people are actually showing faith in BTC. You guys are the ones who are helping in maintain BTC its price.

>guys

Its one d00d, brah, with a bunch of socks.  I see he's got you totally bamboozled :D

This lamb whatever guy isn´t a troll, he´s a fucking nutbag. He has some serious issues. Everybody sees this but as so often with nutcases nobody does anything about it. It would be oh so insensitive.

^

Just hit the ignore button, it's very easy.

Of course I´ve hit the ignore button. I don´t read this nutcase, only see that it posts here.

There are quite a lot of blank boxes on most post pages that are wasted and have to be scrolled-through - I wouldn't mind an option to just remove the blank post as well.

If he was smart enough to use the ignore button, would he send coin to a Canadian Anon as a Panamanian Anon in turn pretending to be Havelock, Bitcoin's Premiere Securities Exchange?
Checkmate.

I do not see it falling to $50 during our life time.
:P

We are headed to 600, lol at 50. These guys should quit their FUDster jobs, its over buddys.

Bitcoin has been behaving rather well since the Jan. bottom.

If you remember the Nov. bounce the Jan.one was similar and at first it looked like BTC was going back to the familiar grinding down. But that reversed about five weeks ago at 225 or so. I don´t trust it all that well YET but any healthy behavior that lasts for weeks has to be a promising sign.

Good luck, g

One step at a time first we are trying to keep at 300 which its having trouble with so what makes you say we are heading to $600?

That's almost as bad as the $50 prediction it is not going to happen unless we get awesome news like the $50 won't happen unless we get terrible news.

Have to add i do not believe we will get the terrible news and we will more than likely get the good but it is not here yet is it.

50$ seems very far streched. 600$ not that much.

Buy bitcoins now when you can buy them for less than $300 a coin.

don't know if bitfinex holds enough USD in their swap market for the market buy i would be placing if we got down to $50  ::)

well the quicker the better till i buy a few hundred

for every panic seller there is a buyer who gets cheap coins

exactly, every time price falls down drastically because people are panicking and start selling their stash, there are fat pocket buyers stationed on low price positions to take their btc out of their hands.

Whales have been buying in small quantities for 4 months.. look at the facts.. all of this while poor fellas like OP buy on the catastrophic scenarios so they sell their cheap coins.

They'll probably end up re-buying in the crazy FOMO of another bubble too, driven by the same market forces that had been over-correcting BTC down from $1100.

You never know, anything possible with BTC  :P

Indeed, anything *is* possible however it's looking like things are not headed to $50 imo.  Finally prices have basically stabilized and I think that BTC at anything less than 250$ would be considered a real steal at this moment.

We're taking the scenic route.

The train was probably delayed. In the meantime not much to do but wait for pointless and clueless thread #500 about the same.

BTC should have never gotten to 1100. Look up your facts, it was ARTIFICIAL.

Define "artificial".  It certainly wasn't artificial for the people who bought and sold btc at that price.  Perhaps you mean "temporary".  In that case, I wholeheartedly agree.

Oh, you registered in November 2014? That's cute. Please tell me more about what happened in that bubble and the other bubbles where panic buying took place prior to that one

I've been missing the doom and gloom of single/double digits doom prophecy since the last recover.


Thanks you

Bitcoin already has so much capital behind it that it won't be allowed to die

i think he intended 500, no way we are aiming at 50 right now, plenty of resistance before that

yes 500 more like it I would buy 100s at 50 lol

$50 bitcoin is too good to be treu. also quite impossible at this point as the buy support probably won't let it go below $100
i think this year will be a slow year without much crazy stuff going on. a slow rise to $500 is a more likely option.

he meant $50, but that is fantasy writing, same as writing that Bitcoin will reach $1000 in 2015, or $1Million by 2020. No fundamentals to support that. Pure and cheap speculation.

I guess some speculation is cheaper than others :).

I certainly wouldn't have predicted >$1000 in 2013 and yet we all remember that it actually happened.  As far as I can tell, bullshit seems to be part of the fun here in the speculation land.

Maybe all the guy has is 50 bucks and he really really wants to own one bitcoin. Apart from that this thread is totally pointless.

Agreed. When the price went to $150, it bounced right back up above $200.

$50 is too low to be true, and i think we already reach the bottom at $1xx
We just waiting for huge pump ::)

At this point $150 is way more likely than $500.
Anyone saying otherwise is crazy.

Guess that makes me one of the crazy ones.  I've been called worse.  However, I suspect that given bitcoin's resiliency and all the upcoming innovation and investment, we're going to see prices rise in 2015 not drop again.  Another possibility is staying flat for a while,  however, I don't forsee prices under 200$ this year.  If they do, I'll surely be buying.

You and a lot of other people.

Given that were at 24 million longs I would agree.  Once those stop losses start to kick in things might get ugly.  I don't think we will reach that point unless we get coins coming from the evolution heist.

i'm as bullish as they come so i wish we would get $50 btc. and i don't sell or short either even @ 500

ah buying btcc @ $50 would be great more coins for us and just hold until the end.

I think there's too much buy support for us to reach $50. Still, it'll be nice.

well, of course there is a room for the next speculation bubble, no doubt about it. But it will be a bit more difficult to get the next one in comparison to the first two. That is why we need to have some fundamental developments first.

I really gotta say that I'm quite sure that there are more than enough people willing to buy at $80, he'll even at $100 before we go that low. I respect your analysis but have to disagree wholeheartedly...

$50 is not going to happen... The price was stable around $10-$12-$15 back in 2012 before the media took the ball and ran with it.. We then saw two pumps.. One to $250 range, which crashed back down to about $50 and then the infamous willybot pump to $1200.

We've witnessed some major changes since the $10-$15 range (besides the pumps), for example: Major retailer adoption, Major VC investments, ETF's and OTC funds. Obviously these changes must add some value to btc and by my math its good for a gain between 7-10x from the stable pre craziness phase of $10-$15.


I've got buys set from $80- $160 because in my heart of hearts I believe we'll hit that before we can build a new uptrend.

Bob, it's because of those things coming that you'll likely never see sub $200 ever again.

OMG.. Bro If I had one BTC for every time I heard someone on here say we would never see it lower then $800-$700-$500-$400-$300-$200 Id have all the btc in the world!  ;D
This is btc.. Anything is possible..Dont get me wrong.. I wanna see btc pop and go to the moon I really really do as my net worth would grow substantially but Ima realist and I know that anything can happen, and that for btc to moon a few things in particular need to happen.

Just look at BTC like any other alt.. You been seeing some alts coming back to life as of late.. have you not? That's because people forgot about them for a while, no one was calling for the moon. And then boom.. Like clockwork they are back trading at 300+ btc daily volume and making gains like way back when.

BTC needs to accomplish that. You guys, who are all calling for the moon are the reason we're not there yet. Let BTC "die". Forget it and the pipe dreams for a bit and once most people have either moved on or forgot about Bitcoin it will come out of its slump and make wonderful gains again.

Just my 0.2BTC

What do I know anyway?

So you're suggesting that the common man (i.e.,  the audience that bitcoin was made specifically for) should just quietly forget about bitcoin... so that whale traders and rich investors can quietly accumulate in the meantime.... and then just pump n' dump on the common man's head in the future when he is supposed to care about bitcoin again?

Ummmm, no thanks.  I'll buy it now, along with the other smart commoners.

It's cute that all you took from my post was this quote above.

 :)

I'm not saying you need to move on or forget about btc, I'm saying you need to stop calling for the moon thinking there is some reason it should be there, some reason the price should go up, some reason why your holding should be worth more! There is no reason btc should be at any price.. Once you realize that price doesn't matter, and not just you, everyone calling for $300- $500 moon ect... Just forget about it.. Let it "die". It's natural progression will get it to where it deserves to be at that time in its life. And if you want to keep buying btc and calling for the moon that's up to you.. But it wont get there till it bottoms out and stabilizes there. If you want to buy btc at $250 that's great just dont be buying it because you think its the floor and we're gonna moon tomorrow.. The moon is far far away if it ever comes.

So Mr Commoner. In closing... Dont forget about bitcoin, just forget about its price and loose the bias that it's gotta be at some price for whatever x reason.

Good luck with your Buying and hodling and trading!

"Major retail adoption" -> no, it's only companies accepting USD through a bitcoin dump out of self promotion.  While a lot of merchants and companies "accept bitcoin", nobody is spending them, retail transaction volume with these merchants has totally stalled and is insignificant anyway.
Bitcoiners HODL their coins, don't spend them.

"Major VC investments" --> VC investments are very risky stuff by definition and the majority of them blow up, not a guarantee of anything. VC investments in the bitcoin space are not even that amazing in absolute terms, they just increased from virtually nothing (2012 for example) to something (today)

"ETFs ad OTC funds" -> the winklevoss ETF is taking forever, we never know if it will ever happen. Barry Silbert pink sheet penny stock little fund has not done anything so far, still 0 trades and the bids are a few grand worth, Basically, nobody cares.

Hey troller!

By major retail adoption I was speaking about the large companies who are using BTC as a form of getting paid for their services and goods. And while transactions may be low today it makes me wonder how many people were using the USD in its first 6 years around. I'm sure most "major retailers" were preferring the good ol gold and silver still, and not paying too much attention to the usd which had a major flaw in the beginning due to ease of counterfeiting.

VC investments.. Listen bud.. You can argue all you want but Marc Andreessen is an all star when it comes to the internet.. He built the first major widely used web browser Mosaic before moving on to co-create Netscape. While lots of VC money goes up in smoke i'm still feeling good knowing that such a powerhouse is behind a large portion of the vc funding coming into BTC. And yes while it may only be a few hundred million today that's been invested compared to almost none in 2012, its a great start, and lends more credence to my belief that one day BTC will be a major player out there.

ETF and OTC..... Firstly.. The ETF will be listed.. I dont know how long it should take, but I don't think its unreasonable to think it could take years to get approved. Its been in the process for what seems like almost a year now so I'm sure soon we'll be getting some news. And yes.. The BIT fund has not got any real action yet, but that's to be expected. To be able to sell a share of BIT you must have held it for at least 1 year. That means most of the BIT holders paid over $600 for their BTC held in the fund. Why would they sell the shares at a $300 value? What needs to happen here is either the spot price of BTC needs to move up to to appease the bit share holders or Barry needs to flood his fund with cheap btc to bring the avg cost down which will induce some trading.. He also mentioned somewhere that there is a way to create new shares based on the spot price now and let those shares trade, and I think he's also trying to get the bit fund listed on the NYSE.... Anyway.. Just be patient dude. Ecosystems take time to build, Investor confidence takes tome to grow, bureaucratic red tape is to be expected when applying for an ETF to be listed on the NASDAQ.

I thot this thread was created on 2009 / 2011 but is made in 2015
The btc will never get again at 50$
To many use btc.

I'll bump this thread with a small lesson,

Back in 2013 I was telling my friend to buy some bitcoins (on gox) when the price got to 70$ so he said he'd rather wait for it to go back to 50$, then the price got to 90$ and he still waits.. he finally bought bitcoin when it was 500$, then he lost all of it when we got gox'ed (he didn't listen to me again when I told him to get his bitcoin out..).

I was extremely close: $162 (Bitfinex) on August 18th.

so we are seeing that the story will repeat itself but with big number this time?

everyone seems to wait for a clear signal of a skyrocketing, before entering serious on the market, but when it will happen for real, when there will be the real bubble, it will be too late as usual...

I know what you mean. I am kicking myself not buying at $237 last month. I keep telling myself I could of made $40 profit off each coin if I held and sold at today's prices.

I was lucky to pick up coins at <= 200. :) If there is one thing I learned in trading aside from not following my emotions, it would be going against the general sentiment of the market. I'm enjoying a $70+  profit for each coin now. :D

I think that for this year there is no way to reach $50.
Likely i am optimistic that the price will reach soon to the $300.
If you missed a '0' then i think that that would be reached in few months or after the halving period.

i highly doubt that the price will drop that much as it is clearly going up right now everyone should sell their bitcoins in order for it to reach such low price

All I can say now is that it definitely seems like we're actually headed the other way.  Bitcoin has gone up to over 350$ in just the last week or so.  Anyway, my preference would be for stability over price-gains anyway.  I kinda liked the long-stint at 250$.  I hope we can maintain 350$ for a while, I hate the roller-coaster.

If the price will really drop that would be around -300 USD.
So i think that is not going to happen at least in the near future.
Besides the high pumps i would be happy to see a stable price of $350

If you had bought, would you be able to push the sell button today?

Good job, Kwanduck Junior (OP), did you sell your BTC at 150$ (the bottom)? :D