Will China convert its USD holdings into Bitcoins?

[smoothie]

That would be awesome!

 

[1715044615]

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[1715044615]

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[notme]

Not yet.

[smoothie]

Slow conversion...

[notme]

Not yet.

[BoardGameCoin]

Threads like this are so funny... BTC will need to be trading at > $50,000 BTCUSD before this is even viable.

[smoothie]

Not yet.

Translation: "I want to buy bitcoins at < $10 for the next year"

[jwzguy]

Threads like this are so funny... BTC will need to be trading at > $50,000 BTCUSD before this is even viable.

Not really. It wouldn't happen in a single instant, and the price would rise according to demand until it was whatever it needed to be.

[notme]

Not yet.

Translation: "I want to buy bitcoins at < $10 for the next year"

Not really.  Not counting my house, most of my net worth is in BTC already.

Sure, it would be nice, but we're not there yet.

[smoothie]

Not yet.

Translation: "I want to buy bitcoins at < $10 for the next year"

Not really.  Not counting my house, most of my net worth is in BTC already.

Sure, it would be nice, but we're not there yet.

Translation: "I'm thinking about selling my house and buying bitcoins and being homeless for the next year while i await becoming a billionaire"

 

[dree12]

Not yet.

Translation: "I want to buy bitcoins at < $10 for the next year"

Not really.  Not counting my house, most of my net worth is in BTC already.

Sure, it would be nice, but we're not there yet.

Translation: "I'm thinking about selling my house and buying bitcoins and being homeless for the next year while i await becoming a billionaire"

 

From homeless to billionaire: the magic of BTC!

[BoardGameCoin]

Threads like this are so funny... BTC will need to be trading at > $50,000 BTCUSD before this is even viable.

Not really. It wouldn't happen in a single instant, and the price would rise according to demand until it was whatever it needed to be.

China USD holdings: ~1.2 Trillion
Total possible BTC: 21 million

If china wanted to own the entire BTC market all on its own and have no-one to sell to, BTCUSD would have to be $57000, the number I quoted is by far a lower bound. Realistically there would need to be comparable liquidity to the USD market to support owning a large amount of it, so their portion would need to be comparatively small, maybe 1/15th of total BTC. For that, BTCUSD would have to be $850,000.

[molecular]

Threads like this are so funny... BTC will need to be trading at > $50,000 BTCUSD before this is even viable.

Exactly, at that price we'll all be laughing our asses off.

Did you think it was possible bitcoin could go to $30 back when a Pizza was BTC 10,000 or did you say it was funny?

[notme]

Not yet.

Translation: "I want to buy bitcoins at < $10 for the next year"

Not really.  Not counting my house, most of my net worth is in BTC already.

Sure, it would be nice, but we're not there yet.

Translation: "I'm thinking about selling my house and buying bitcoins and being homeless for the next year while i await becoming a billionaire"

 

Ummm... no.

[BoardGameCoin]

Just to be clear, I'm not saying this will never happen, I'm saying that its so far in the distant future as to be impossible to predict at the present time. I wouldn't be surprised if even now some governments are purchasing small amounts of BTC. But the market is several huge steps away from being able to support true currency-level exchange.

[molecular]

Just to be clear, I'm not saying this will never happen, I'm saying that its so far in the distant future as to be impossible to predict at the present time.

Oh yeah, that's probably true.

I wouldn't be surprised if even now some governments are purchasing small amounts of BTC.

I highly doubt it. A bureaucrat seldomly makes decisions, much less ones he could be held accountable for. Why would he decide this. Not even institutional investors invest in bitcoin, the market is still way too funny, worse than penny stock.

But the market is several huge steps away from being able to support true currency-level exchange.

What kind of steps are you talking about?

[BoardGameCoin]

I highly doubt it. A bureaucrat seldomly makes decisions, much less ones he could be held accountable for. Why would he decide this. Not even institutional investors invest in bitcoin, the market is still way too funny, worse than penny stock.

Governments are not so backwards as you might think. I'd imagine that currently most government holdings are not related to central banks but are more related to intelligence and law enforcement activities.

But the market is several huge steps away from being able to support true currency-level exchange.

What kind of steps are you talking about?

Steps where the market is sufficiently liquid to accept different levels of short-term capital. I like to look at the +- 2% spread as a good measure of how liquid a market is. By that measure, bitcoin has roughly $5k-200k of liquidity. I'd imagine that we'll see large spikes as specific liquidity barriers are broken, the next being at $500k. I don't think central banks will truly enter until there's at least 1 billion in liquidity at an even tighter spread than 2%.

[Spekulatius]

Will China convert its USD holdings into Bitcoins?

I dont think China will, but maybe the North Koreans would (probably converting CNY to BTC instead of their KPW). Seriously, they are the kind of maniacs, that could pull such a stunt. And they dont have much to loose either, maybe give 'em a call?
Nonetheless I do think, that the market cap would have to rise higher then this (90 Million USD? Thats nothing even for NKoreans).

[BoardGameCoin]

The $50k and $850k figures are flawed, the value would rise as they bought in so it would be some kind of compound interest figure.

The 50k figure is not flawed as a lower bound, and in fact would never happen in real life. The $850k figure is also not flawed as a lower bound, but has my guesstimate about 1/15th of an economy as being the maximum risk that China would be willing to forego its dollars for. If we instead do a population based split, where China takes a 5th of the BTC because they are a 5th of the world population, then the lower bound would be closer to ~$300k per BTC.

I think what you're forgetting as that, regardless of what price they buy in at, if the price doesn't rise to a sufficient level, they'll still have $ left over. I'm looking at a baseline, not a realistic estimate. My estimate would come in above all the numbers I've quoted, probably something like $1.25M per BTC.

[Philj]

Not yet.

Translation: "I want to buy bitcoins at < $10 for the next year"

Not really.  Not counting my house, most of my net worth is in BTC already.

Sure, it would be nice, but we're not there yet.

Translation: "I'm thinking about selling my house and buying bitcoins and being homeless for the next year while i await becoming a billionaire"

 

Sweet! I just got me a new retirement plan...

[Rygon]

Not yet.

Translation: "I want to buy bitcoins at < $10 for the next year"

Not really.  Not counting my house, most of my net worth is in BTC already.
Sure, it would be nice, but we're not there yet.

More power to you! I'm hoping for the best also, but my crystal ball isn't clear enough to justify more than 5% networth in BTC at this time. Anything past that and I wouldn't be sleeping well at night.