Bitcoin Cannot Succeed (heres why)

[chaoman]

First of all I would like to start this off by stating that I am a believer in the possibility of the success of Bitcoin. This may seem like a contradiction with the title of the thread but it is not. This is because the possibility of success is very low due to the reasons which I am going to describe. At the moment bitcoin is 250$ and has been there for quite a while. Exchanges such as cryptsy, poloniex, btc-e, ect. exist to exchange btc to usd and btc to other alt coins. Circle and coinbase exchange btc to usd and are currently common way to receive USD from BTC. That is a brief summary of the current ecosystem.

Now let us imagine that bitcoin reaches "the moon" as is often wished for in the Bitcoin community. Let us imagine that one BTC is worth 1 million dollars. It is commonly accepted that these exchanges, cryptsy, poloniex, btc-e, circle, coinbase, ect. are for profit. They are not running their businesses out of altruism, but for profit. If one bitcoin is worth one million dollars, how is it remotely imaginable that these exchanges will not just run off with the coins? Even more if I have one btc at one million dollars, I will have to go through some sort of intermediary to receive my USD. This intermediary will run off with the coin because of its massive value.

The issue is a facet of human nature, greed. One bitcoin would not even have to reach 1 million usd for the above scenario to become a reality. How high does btc have to go? The 1k mark was enough for mt gox, 2k...would there still be trust? Would they all run off with the BTC? Ok how about 40k?

This is the problem of bitcoin. People steal. Especially when it is irreversible.

[matt4054]

Only traders/speculators need to keep significant amounts of bitcoins in exchanges, getting IOUs instead. The exposure of regular users is limited to the amount and timeframe of their BTC/fiat deposits/withdrawals.

[chaoman]

An extremely high value of bitcoin would render it virtually unusable. Even escrows could not be trusted.

[Bit_Happy]

An extremely high value of bitcoin would render it virtually unusable. Even escrows could not be trusted.

0.00000150 BTC (for example) might be worth a Dollar or two, instead of virtually nothing:
Will that cause you (or anyone else) to steal my little $1?

An exchange that is currently trusted with ~$2 Million USD could still have similar value, but be holding a much smaller number of BTC (after honoring withdrawal requests)

There are many other examples which show that Bitcoin will still be useable.

[Chef Ramsay]

Perhaps in the future people will flock to only those exchanges that are insured or have a credit rating w/o a blemish. Also, if things were to stay the way they are with your scenario of sketchy exchanges, people would still take risks to trade what they will. I doubt w/ such large dollar bitcoin prices down the line that people will keep whole bitcoins on these exchanges but rather just trade in bits instead, thus leaving their exposure more modest. I'm not worried about down the line, just the path to get to a setting where that could be a problem first.

[LRENZ]

lol this thread is ridiculous. If bitcoin went to 1 mill it wouldn't happen overnight, if it was really starting to take off upwards past $1k again everyone would be focusing on their own security, beauty being they CAN control the private keys not an exchange. Also by this point most of the current amateur exchanges would be long gone and proffesional platforms would be up and mainstream with insurance on the coins. Also security techniques are  getting better, new ways to store coins like hardware wallets will continue to be developed.

Plus BitShares have already created a decentralized exchange, a glimpse of the future!

[chaoman]

An extremely high value of bitcoin would render it virtually unusable. Even escrows could not be trusted.

0.00000150 BTC (for example) might be worth a Dollar or two, instead of virtually nothing:
Will that cause you (or anyone else) to steal my little $1?

An exchange that is currently trusted with ~$2 Million USD could still have similar value, but be holding a much smaller number of BTC (after honoring withdrawal requests)

There are many other examples which show that Bitcoin will still be useable.

How are you going to trade 150 satoshi when the transaction fee is .0001

[matt4054]

How are you going to trade 150 satoshi when the transaction fee is .0001

The transaction fee is not hardcoded, it is only a recommendation/consensus, and it has already been significantly lowered several times in the past to reflect the price increase. It will obviously continue to adapt with the market.

[MicroGuy]

lol this thread is ridiculous.

Second. lol

[Bit_Happy]

An extremely high value of bitcoin would render it virtually unusable. Even escrows could not be trusted.

0.00000150 BTC (for example) might be worth a Dollar or two, instead of virtually nothing:
Will that cause you (or anyone else) to steal my little $1?

An exchange that is currently trusted with ~$2 Million USD could still have similar value, but be holding a much smaller number of BTC (after honoring withdrawal requests)

There are many other examples which show that Bitcoin will still be useable.

How are you going to trade 150 satoshi when the transaction fee is .0001

I see that question was already answered.
FYI: If you want to appear less "trollish", then you might want a more accurate thread title, for example, "Will $1,000,000/BTC cause a series of new challenges?"

[Q7]

I don't think that is a valid justification to say that it's going to lead to bitcoin collapse. Yeah people do steal and will forever be overcome by greed. But that doesn't mean that you will need to leave your coins in wallet that you don't have the private key to. So essentially you are only making the process of stealing becomes easier. Remember you will always have the choice.

[LRENZ]

Were still in the ' wild west ' phase, people using the current exchanges know there is risk, if not they are idiots. When there is clear signs that bitcoin is truly going mainstream then people will start to take security more seriously, until then its just an experiment.

[AnalizeSituation]

Maybe you know Secret and Bitcoin Price be in this year about 10.000$ ? 

[thms]

I suggest this link to OP:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fraction_(mathematics)

[AgentofCoin]

1. Transaction fees, in the event 1btc is 1million usd, would be reduced to around 0.00000004 btc.
    The conversion of that would be $0.04 USD, which is what miners fee is now. If the price crashes, we go back.

2. When/If one bitcoin becomes 1million USD, it will be many years from now (I say 25 years) and todays standard will not exist.
    It could even be possible at that point in time, that regular banks could buy/sell btc. Thus "safer" transactions.

    If btc becomes 1million USD, we would be in uncharted territory and looking at a new/different world. (like, World Banks failed/done)

[PenguinFire]

This thread is oblivious to the current state of the market.  It only speculates a decade of progress will have in days time. 

[ebliever]

Someone should collect all these poorly reasoned "why bitcoin will fail" threads with the best rebuttals  to each. Then whenever someone regurgitates them we can just point them to the rebuttal FAQ and otherwise ignore the trolling.

If bitcoin goes to the moon it won't happen in a day. The exchanges, over the long run, stand more to gain by being honest then by stealing a limited amount at any one point. The really big winners will be the dominant bitcoin exchanges that have earned their trust, much as large banks today earn more profits than criminals that rob people or businesses of fiat. And that ignores the wild possibility that some people will resist temptation and will behave ethically, passing on the opportunity to run off with your money.

[noma]

Even if the price reaches 1 million , it wouldn't be an instant increase.  Only not-smart people will leave their coins on these exchanges and will repent it later.
And there is no way that bitcoin will reach 1 million.People would dump much before and sell their btc as the price goes above 1000.

[Monnt]

First of all I would like to start this off by stating that I am a believer in the possibility of the success of Bitcoin. This may seem like a contradiction with the title of the thread but it is not. This is because the possibility of success is very low due to the reasons which I am going to describe. At the moment bitcoin is 250$ and has been there for quite a while. Exchanges such as cryptsy, poloniex, btc-e, ect. exist to exchange btc to usd and btc to other alt coins. Circle and coinbase exchange btc to usd and are currently common way to receive USD from BTC. That is a brief summary of the current ecosystem.

Now let us imagine that bitcoin reaches "the moon" as is often wished for in the Bitcoin community. Let us imagine that one BTC is worth 1 million dollars. It is commonly accepted that these exchanges, cryptsy, poloniex, btc-e, circle, coinbase, ect. are for profit. They are not running their businesses out of altruism, but for profit. If one bitcoin is worth one million dollars, how is it remotely imaginable that these exchanges will not just run off with the coins? Even more if I have one btc at one million dollars, I will have to go through some sort of intermediary to receive my USD. This intermediary will run off with the coin because of its massive value.

The issue is a facet of human nature, greed. One bitcoin would not even have to reach 1 million usd for the above scenario to become a reality. How high does btc have to go? The 1k mark was enough for mt gox, 2k...would there still be trust? Would they all run off with the BTC? Ok how about 40k?

This is the problem of bitcoin. People steal. Especially when it is irreversible.

Absolute BS.

[minerbit hill]

Bitcoin will succeed if the community stays strong and more people believe in it.