How to calculate dice investing profit?

[Lorenzo]

I recently logged back into my Just-Dice account after a few weeks and was pretty pleased to see that my initial investment of 4.6 clams that I had dug from my old BTC address have now grown to 5.5 clams.

Anyway, is there a formula that is able to approximate the expected profit?

As I see it, there are four variables that would influence the profit for any given dice site:

1. initial deposit (the more you deposit, the greater your profit)
2. house edge (greater house edge = greater profit)
3. time (more time = more profit)
4. size of bets (more bets = more profit)

And a fifth variable I'm not too certain about:

5. Proportion of bankroll? (not sure if this makes a difference)

Obviously if the site takes a cut afterwards then that would affect the profit too but that's pretty obvious.

Then again, I understand this is a highly technical question perhaps more suited for mathematicians and those with math degrees so perhaps Bitcointalk might not be the right place to ask.

EDIT: OK, the following was my attempt at making a formula. I'm a bio/chem major and not a maths major so please correct me if I'm wrong:

If someone bet 1 BTC with a 10 percent house edge, the expected site profit would be 0.1 BTC. If they bet 1 BTC everyday, the expected site profit after 10 days would be 1 BTC. If one person supplied 1/3 of the bankroll and another supplied 2/3 then they would each get 1/3 BTC and 2/3 BTC respectively, correct? But how would this scale into a site such as Just-Dice?

Profit = (house edge * (size of bets per day * days)) * proportion of bankroll

where proportion of bankroll = initial deposit / total deposited across all users

So for a site with a 1 percent house edge, 50 BTC invested daily, and a 1,000 BTC bankroll that would be:

Profit = (0.01 * (50 * days)) * (initial deposit / 1000)

So you can just plug in the numbers for how much you want to deposit and for how many days to get the expected profit?

Is this correct?

[1715303388]

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[ticoti]

but the profit is from losses and not from house edge,isn't it?

[Lorenzo]

but the profit is from losses and not from house edge,isn't it?

Wouldn't the house edge translate to expected losses for players though? So if you bet 1 BTC with a 1 percent house edge, your expected loss would be 0.01 BTC which would become part of the site profit.

[yahoo62278]

im curious to see someone from JD admin comment here. id like to know the exact formula myself

[v0yager]

It's incalculable I guess, it depends on how much the site earns.

[RHavar]

Expected earnings are easy:

Code:

bankrollStake * houseEdge * amountWagered * 0.9

your bankrollStake is determined by how much you deposit, at what leverage you do so, and how much other people have invested. Note, your bankrollStake is a constantly changing number, as is the amount wagered.

JD also gives investors staking rewards (or rather 90% of them), but it's probably best to ignore this.

[oldmate]

I just finished a blog post about this: https://thebitcoinstrip.com/blog/investing-in-bitcoin-casinos.html.

It explains everything you should know before considering investing, including how to calculate your expected profit.

Also, it includes a nice table showing you the expected bank turnover and ROI of major investor casinos.

[sherbyspark]

but the profit is from losses and not from house edge,isn't it?

Yes , but those losses are essentially due to the house edge of 1%. If the house edge isn't there you won't be able to expect the casino to always keep winning in the long run .

[a1choi]

It's all about the turnover of the casino.  The faster the turnover, the faster the expected profits grow.  With each full bankroll turnover, the expected profit is equal to the house edge.  Therefore, your % gain with each turnover is your % of the bankroll * house edge.

As a casino operator, you'd need to optimize for fastest turnover if you're into optimizing profits, which mostly involve increasing:

1) average bet
2) volume of bets

3) house edge  (might not be something that is changeable as some games have set odds)

[ticoti]

but the profit is from losses and not from house edge,isn't it?

Yes , but those losses are essentially due to the house edge of 1%. If the house edge isn't there you won't be able to expect the casino to always keep winning in the long run .

I got it now, I think your calcs are correct

[Josepht]

Expexted profit = your % of the bankroll /100 * total amount wagered * house edge in % /100