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Author Topic: Satoshi's spare change?  (Read 8093 times)
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May 25, 2011, 09:41:46 AM
 #21

Who knows. Maybe one day when the whole thing is over and the world has moved on, he will pop up, sign a message with the genesis key and say, here I am. Thanks for taking part everyone.
Does Satoshi still have the capability to send an alert out to clients to shut them down in case of a network emergency? Or have clients changed that?

There's alert code still in Bitcoin, though I can't find any source that does anything other than print the alert message on screen.

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May 25, 2011, 10:46:38 AM
 #22

I believe Gavin has the alert key now.

aka sipa, core dev team

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May 25, 2011, 11:08:34 AM
 #23

A major government already controls 100% (and more!) of the world's primary reserve currency.  Lose any sleep over that recently?

yes, but the current structure has served me well.  I work hard, pay my taxes, and expanding my family.

The current system provides much maturity and predictability.  The current system doesn't provide a reasonable possibility of some unknown entity with no transparency holding 20% of the market.

btc has documented prof of almost 20% of the early generated btc being held by a hidden entity (Satoshi or whatever it is)

This mandates this currency to an amount of unpredictability that many people will not buy into.  People may ask for a schism of the block over this.

(Assuming you're from the USA)... uh did you not see two years ago when the Fed refused to release the records of where two hundred billion dollars went???  And when it finally was, most of it was redacted...

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May 25, 2011, 02:03:08 PM
 #24

yes, but the current structure has served me well.  I work hard, pay my taxes, and expanding my family.

The current system provides much maturity and predictability.  The current system doesn't provide a reasonable possibility of some unknown entity with no transparency holding 20% of the market.

btc has documented prof of almost 20% of the early generated btc being held by a hidden entity (Satoshi or whatever it is)

This mandates this currency to an amount of unpredictability that many people will not buy into.  People may ask for a schism of the block over this.

(Assuming you're from the USA)... uh did you not see two years ago when the Fed refused to release the records of where two hundred billion dollars went???  And when it finally was, most of it was redacted...

the point is that the fed while doing this (I believe it was a mistake) was acting in a way to perpetuate the current financial system (as much as we may not like it).  We all have a certain amount of confidence (predictability) that the US gov, and the fed will server to keep the system working mostly as is (don't read this as me endorsing this).  This allows me to plan financially for the long haul (even if I don't like the way the system is working).

With btc we have no idea how this %20 could come out.  What if the original group has a political ideology that we'll call polX

for people on the right polX == communist, redistribution, maoist philosophy
for people on the left polX == neo con, big business, racist, stomp the little man

If the original group decided to leverage 20% of the economy to server polX agenda we could be setting ourselves up to being slaves to a more terrible master then the current system.

send btc --> 1F1avjWuBy1Ah8vuEkyVDPJ93ev3unfC3J
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May 25, 2011, 02:17:07 PM
 #25

Can you show us your proof that Satoshi (or anyone else) controls 20% of all BTC?
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May 25, 2011, 02:49:10 PM
 #26

Can you show us your proof that Satoshi (or anyone else) controls 20% of all BTC?

There is no proof, except I believe Gavin himself in an interview said that btc was running for a year in a private network with just a few people involved, so we are left with conjecture and innuendo.  I believe he said this on that web show he did, or maybe it was that presentation.

send btc --> 1F1avjWuBy1Ah8vuEkyVDPJ93ev3unfC3J
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May 25, 2011, 03:19:33 PM
 #27

One of the things that 20% of bitcoins could be used for is to help dampen the price swings.  You wouldn't want to try and control the long term trajectory of bitcoin prices (the 20% would rapidly become 0% if you tried that), but you could smooth out a lot of the volatility.  You could make it trying and hug the 30 day moving average for example (while also adjusting for significant events that cause a radical and permanent departure from the moving average).

In any case, the points you are contemplating are a legitimate concern and something everyone should consider IMO.  That is a large percentage of bitcoins and is a significant concentration of power (within the bitcoin economy and if things go well for bitcoin, a large amount of power in an absolute sense).  And I think large concentrations of power are a thing that many here seek to avoid by using bitcoins.  So, people should certainly factor this into their assessment of the value of bitcoins (just as you are doing).

(gasteve on IRC) Does your website accept cash? https://bitpay.com
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May 25, 2011, 03:33:48 PM
 #28

Can you show us your proof that Satoshi (or anyone else) controls 20% of all BTC?

There is no proof, except I believe Gavin himself in an interview said that btc was running for a year in a private network with just a few people involved, so we are left with conjecture and innuendo.  I believe he said this on that web show he did, or maybe it was that presentation.

You can see the historical hash rate/difficulty here: http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-ever.png

Let's assume that satoshi was the only one generating between 2009-01-03 (the genesis block) and ~2009-12-30 (first difficulty increase), which I think is doubtful considering that he announced Bitcoin to the world 8 days after genesis. Let's also assume that he generated 1 block every 10 minutes, which as you can see from the dip in hash rate isn't the case.

That means he generated 51984 blocks, or 2,599,200 BTC, which is about 12% of the 21 million total.

Keep in mind that this scenario is very unlikely, I'm fairly certain there were others mining during that time period, and that a block was not created every 10 minutes during this period.
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May 25, 2011, 03:42:51 PM
 #29

Not only that, but history is littered with examples of people who came across vast sums of wealth quickly, and subsequently blew it.

Even if the first few people had 20% of the wealth, it will surely end up filtered through the hands of hookers and dealers at some point.

Just like many lottery winners end up broke after a few years.

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May 25, 2011, 03:49:36 PM
 #30

Not only that, but history is littered with examples of people who came across vast sums of wealth quickly, and subsequently blew it.

Even if the first few people had 20% of the wealth, it will surely end up filtered through the hands of hookers and dealers at some point.

Just like many lottery winners end up broke after a few years.

True. It's also assuming that those who had accumulated it early didn't blow it all on 10,000 BTC pizzas or cash out when it hit the ridiculous high of $0.40.
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May 25, 2011, 03:53:04 PM
 #31

This is actually something we need to spend a few cycles thinking about.  I think one of the biggest risks to btc is the fact that founders are playing this bullshit anonymous thing.  These people are not anonymous.  A govt. if they wanted to could uncover them rapidly, and they will once the value of btc becomes high enough.  The problem here is that these people will be gotten to eventually.  They can eather open themselves up to the community and be transparent on their holdings and the intentions of these holdings, or we can wait until a special forces group under the cover of night grabs them and then 20% of the btc economy is now in the hands of that group.  Which option to you prefer?

send btc --> 1F1avjWuBy1Ah8vuEkyVDPJ93ev3unfC3J
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May 25, 2011, 03:58:38 PM
 #32

I think that it's none of my business, yours, nor that of anyone else. I'm not sure how you think it's inevitable that the magical government agents will unmask satoshi, but I'm pretty sure he's counting on it not happening.

Please see my above post and revise your "20%" claim, it is overstated. Please list out the threat scenarios to you or current bitcoin holders of a single unknown individual having a MAXIMUM of 12% of total bitcoins. Please make them specific so they can be refuted if possible.
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May 25, 2011, 04:43:09 PM
 #33

Scenarios (assuming btc takes off big time)

1 - btc originators method of staying anonymous wasn't as good as thought.  Secret ops team from a fringe political group acquires 12% of world economy (possibly creating a more terrible master then our current state)
2 - btc originators have their own crazy ideas on how the world should run (use that polX from earlier post), and use 12% of the economy to make it happen (possibly creating a more terrible master then our current state)
3 - I'm a major company considering leveraging btc for a multi-billion dollar insurance binder.... of wait we can't.... some crazy dudes who hang out in teh shadows and possibly have crazy political ideology (or some weird god complex) hold 12% of the currency, therefore too much risk
4 - Give me more time and I'll dream up more of these.


You're right.  It isn't ANY of MY business.  What is my business is possibly using this to generate a ground swell to restart the block.  I know this is a radical departure, but I ultimately want to see btc succeed in a massive way.  I don't see it succeeding with 24% now, 12% in 2045 (or whenever the block stops rewarding coins (non-fee ones)) of the currency being in a state of complete unknown.

my 00.02 btc

send btc --> 1F1avjWuBy1Ah8vuEkyVDPJ93ev3unfC3J
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May 25, 2011, 05:02:14 PM
 #34

Rather than trying to restart the block chain, why not just create a fork instead? It has the same overall effect, plus you can set your own rules rather than limit the supply to 21 million. As a benefit, you don't have to convince anyone of anything, except to use your currency rather than Bitcoin, and you don't piss off a bunch of early adopters.
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May 25, 2011, 07:22:36 PM
 #35

Scenarios (assuming btc takes off big time)

1 - btc originators method of staying anonymous wasn't as good as thought.  Secret ops team from a fringe political group acquires 12% of world economy (possibly creating a more terrible master then our current state)
2 - btc originators have their own crazy ideas on how the world should run (use that polX from earlier post), and use 12% of the economy to make it happen (possibly creating a more terrible master then our current state)
3 - I'm a major company considering leveraging btc for a multi-billion dollar insurance binder.... of wait we can't.... some crazy dudes who hang out in teh shadows and possibly have crazy political ideology (or some weird god complex) hold 12% of the currency, therefore too much risk
4 - Give me more time and I'll dream up more of these.


You're right.  It isn't ANY of MY business.  What is my business is possibly using this to generate a ground swell to restart the block.  I know this is a radical departure, but I ultimately want to see btc succeed in a massive way.  I don't see it succeeding with 24% now, 12% in 2045 (or whenever the block stops rewarding coins (non-fee ones)) of the currency being in a state of complete unknown.

my 00.02 btc

do you even have 0.02btc ?

you come across sounding a little unhinged ... and from me, that is saying something ... no offence intended, truly.

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May 25, 2011, 08:30:38 PM
 #36


do you even have 0.02btc ?

you come across sounding a little unhinged ... and from me, that is saying something ... no offence intended, truly.

I do have 00.02btc (I was a very early miner), but what does that have to do with my argument?

I was asked earlier to provide specif examples of scenarios that could be a problem for the currency, so they could be addressed (supposedly in this forum).  I did as asked.

I don't believe one is, "unhinged," if they point out the substantial risk of having 25% (at this time) of the currency in an anonymous state.  Again I'm not worried about someone using it to buy or sell on the market, I'm more worried about the political power/corruption associated with that much concentration of money (as a share of the btc economy).

Which of my scenarios is the, "craziest," or the one that would best illustrate that this author is, "unhinged?"

send btc --> 1F1avjWuBy1Ah8vuEkyVDPJ93ev3unfC3J
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May 25, 2011, 10:35:37 PM
 #37

I agree with syn.  The questionable status of the early blocks weighs on the value of BTC in my mind.  If enough people feel the same way (especially in the example scenario of a Satoshi character wielding BTC for evil) then a competing chain could quickly arise and sap BTC's exchange value.  I might be willing to hash on one and/or sell some BTC to buy the new currency even now, because of the aforementioned weight of uncertainty.

By the way, 2009-12-30 was at block 32300, according to BE: http://blockexplorer.com/b/32300

BE shows (as of a few weeks ago when I checked) a lot of early coins not yet redeemed, and many others simply aggregated to 1000, 10000, 50000 BTC coins.  There was once a 400000: http://blockexplorer.com/t/6SRV1apueQ

-John

Can a change to the best-chain criteria protect against 51% to 90+% attacks without a hard fork?
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May 25, 2011, 11:29:25 PM
 #38

Hasn't the project been open source since before the genesis block?

According to this timeline, the code was released November 2008:

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/History

If people got in early, and the project subsequently gets big, it's fair that they profit big. They took the risk of investing time into something that had no certainty of becoming valuable and they were the ones lucky and smart enough to find the project first.

As far as early users using their bitcoins for ill, given there will always be people who are far wealthier than them, I don't think that's something we really need to worry about. Do you stay up all night thinking of all the things the oil sheiks in the Middle East can do when you buy gasoline?

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May 25, 2011, 11:59:06 PM
 #39



As far as early users using their bitcoins for ill, given there will always be people who are far wealthier than them, I don't think that's something we really need to worry about. Do you stay up all night thinking of all the things the oil sheiks in the Middle East can do when you buy gasoline?



Exactly. If twenty percent of the bitcoins in existence are controlled by a very few people, that's actually a very equitable distribution, a good and just start for the economy.

Globally, the top two percent of wealthy people control 50% of the world's riches. Bitcoin is a communist dream compared to the real world.
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May 26, 2011, 12:06:46 AM
 #40



As far as early users using their bitcoins for ill, given there will always be people who are far wealthier than them, I don't think that's something we really need to worry about. Do you stay up all night thinking of all the things the oil sheiks in the Middle East can do when you buy gasoline?



Exactly. If twenty percent of the bitcoins in existence are controlled by a very few people, that's actually a very equitable distribution, a good and just start for the economy.

Globally, the top two percent of wealthy people control 50% of the world's riches. Bitcoin is a communist dream compared to the real world.

+1 ... take a look around, wise up, the evil elite are already in control.

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