Augur bets on blockchain

[koelen3]

In conversation with CoinDesk, Gardner and Krug sought to portray Augur as a project that plans to use decentralized public ledgers to create a way for anyone in any field, from finance, healthcare and governance, to tap into the collective forecasting power of a global user base.



http://www.coindesk.com/augur-future-blockchain-prediction-market/

"With bitcoin, it’s a better money than what we have, but it's a version of what we have today. We’ve never really had a wildly popular prediction market. We’ve never had these open-source tools to be able to bet on the Internet and turn that into a social good."


"If Augur is successful, there’s a huge opportunity to make money, but we believe that if this succeeds, we’ll have created this world-changing forecasting tool."

White paper of Augur's Project

http://augur.link/augur.pdf


Seems pretty much interesting and will bring great change to bitcoin community

[tss]

prediction markets seldom work as people say what they would like to do rather than what they would actually do. 
an example, there was an experimet done a few years back.. cant find a link.. about day traders having better trading abilities before they were told they are actually dealing in real money transactions.

[koelen3]

prediction markets seldom work as people say what they would like to do rather than what they would actually do. 
an example, there was an experimet done a few years back.. cant find a link.. about day traders having better trading abilities before they were told they are actually dealing in real money transactions.

Yes! i do understand that , people predict and the rumour alone cause a rucus and a rise , if they actually do it , the value stays and it again falls.

[joeykrug447]

prediction markets seldom work as people say what they would like to do rather than what they would actually do. 
an example, there was an experimet done a few years back.. cant find a link.. about day traders having better trading abilities before they were told they are actually dealing in real money transactions.

Yes! i do understand that , people predict and the rumour alone cause a rucus and a rise , if they actually do it , the value stays and it again falls.

This has actually happened before --- 2012 on Intrade Mitt Romney's campaign bought millions in Romney shares to seemingly boost Romney's chances.  What ended up happening was the market quickly corrected to the prior odds showing Obama with a higher chance of winning.  Using real money usually forces people to do what they'd actually do (and in this context I definitely consider Bitcoin real money), and when it doesn't (e.g. Romney campaign) the market corrects.