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Author Topic: Will bitcoin surpass all previous tests of probability?  (Read 1046 times)
monsanto (OP)
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March 09, 2015, 03:02:17 AM
 #1

Let me begin by saying I'm not sure this question makes any sense but in case it might I will proceed as if it does.  Wink

What I'm wondering is if we look at human tests of probability theory at the most extreme, presumably those involving super-computers, when will bitcoin perform a calculation of even lower probability.  (i.e., confirming that theoretical predictions of probability theory do indeed continue to work at a new extreme).

I've read that Princeton, for example, tested to see if people could influence random number generators.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Princeton_Engineering_Anomalies_Research_Lab

I'm not endorsing that but along those lines lets say instead of humans being able to influence probability, that at some extreme human tests of probability break down.  Not because of psychokinesis or anything like that but because of some unknown cosmic law. Hypothetically then will bitcoin difficulty test this beyond any previous measure?

As a wild guess I would think the calculations done at the Large Hadron Collider may be the greatest tests of extreme theoretical probability to date.
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Beliathon
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March 09, 2015, 04:08:28 AM
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If there was some cosmic force affecting probability in extreme cases,  we'd know it by now. This is classic pseudoscience.

Remember Aaron Swartz, a 26 year old computer scientist who died defending the free flow of information.
monsanto (OP)
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March 09, 2015, 04:33:23 AM
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If there was some cosmic force affecting probability in extreme cases,  we'd know it by now. This is classic pseudoscience.

I didn't say there was a "force."  My question was asked as a hypothetical so I don't know why labeling it "pseudoscience" is informative.  No claim was made so your answer provides nothing of worth.
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March 09, 2015, 04:46:24 AM
 #4

I don't know, but I have a question that may influence how this thread goes...


How much did you drink?
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March 09, 2015, 04:54:20 AM
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I don't know, but I have a question that may influence how this thread goes...


How much did you drink?

The probability is high  Grin
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March 09, 2015, 06:39:12 AM
Last edit: March 10, 2015, 01:48:35 AM by teukon
 #6

I'm not endorsing that but along those lines lets say instead of humans being able to influence probability, that at some extreme human tests of probability break down.  Not because of psychokinesis or anything like that but because of some unknown cosmic law. Hypothetically then will bitcoin difficulty test this beyond any previous measure?

As a wild guess I would think the calculations done at the Large Hadron Collider may be the greatest tests of extreme theoretical probability to date.

Breaking probability itself through experiment is like trying to use a hammer to hit the very same hammer.  The logic which is used to connect the results of experiments to the assumptions of a hypothesis is, in part, probability.

The idea that something purely logical can be influenced by something physical ("some unknown cosmic law") is so far outside the box I'm having difficulty describing an approximate answer (just as you are having difficulty formulating an exact question).  Fortunately for us, a fine wordsmith has already given this topic some attention.  Look up "Infinite Improbability Drive" and "Bistromathematics".
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March 09, 2015, 09:59:15 PM
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As a wild guess I would think the calculations done at the Large Hadron Collider may be the greatest tests of extreme theoretical probability to date.
It's Hidden Variable Theory. Existence of hidden variables would allow correlations between measurements in quantum entanglement, that would allow instantaneous communication by modulating the detectors. There are experiments that have been done showing that if hidden variables exist, they must be nonlocal. What that means is that either there is inherent randomness or faster-than-light communication.
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March 09, 2015, 11:37:11 PM
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Probability is a mathematical method that is used to characterize random processes. Humans cannot affect "probability" because it is math. That would be like saying that humans could affect the result of 2+2.

Anyway, what you are referring to is the ability of humans to affect the outcome of a presumably random process. If that happens then the process is no longer random, and probability no longer completely applies.

So, which random process are you referring to and how would the ability to control it affect Bitcoin?

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