New Diff thread Mar 8 to Mar 22.

[bitcoin4eva]

Ill have to go with the OP. Hopefully it drops a little ; )

-0.51 to -0.75

[1715013088]

1715013088

[1715013088]

1715013088

[1715013088]

1715013088

[1715013088]

1715013088

[1715013088]

1715013088

[philipma1957]

My guess is +1.51% to +1.75%

Does anyone know if suchmoon actually plans on continuing?

your pick is taken see above notlist3d,

As for this promo so far suchmoon has not confirmed he will run it anymore.

I change my guess to +1.26% to +1.50% (didn't see him)

that looks good.

new list

philipma1957  -1.01 to  -1.25%

bitcoin4eva      -0.51 % to -0.75%


Jamphone       +0.01 to +0.25%



Quickseller       +1.01 to +1.25%
RedhatCat       +1.26 to +1.50%
notlist3d         +1.51 to +1.75%
valkir              +1.76 to +2.00% -------- corrected from 1.75 to 2.00
jmumich          +2.01 to +2.25%
freedomno1      +2.26 to + 2.50%
frankenmint       +2.51 to +2.75%
edonkey           +2.76 to +3.00%
armedmilitia    +3,.01 to +3.25


tlhIlwI              +3.76 to +4.00%
HerbPean          +4.01 to +4.25%

buyandhold      +5.01 to +5.25%

ezeminer        +7.76 to +8.00%

[edonkey]

Our youngest cat (the one that's the closest guesser; almost nabbed the last one) says +2.76% to +3%.

I think that might be a little high, but slots are filling up fast and beggars can't be choosers.

[Kexkey]

Congratulations to SunnyIgor!

This time I'll go with -0.01 to -0.25.

Good luck to all!

EDIT: % that is, obviously!

[suchmoon]

OFFICIAL RULES FOR THE MOST ACCURATE GUESS REWARD

are here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=964922.msg10550525#msg10550525
(in other words, nothing has changed since the previous cycle except there is of course a new deadline).

Deadline is 02:00 (2 AM) UTC March 15th, 2015

[MegaFall]

I'll take -0.26% to -0.50%.

[edonkey]

This series of threads is really great. Thanks to philipma1957 for starting the original discussion. And thanks to Suchmoon for adding the fun factor, and putting up the bounty, of course.

Has anyone thought of setting up a difficulty betting site? I'm thinking that people would pick ranges (you'd have to allow overlap) and actually post BTC to an escrow address. When the winning value is selected, the pot would be divided by the number of winners. Think of the excitement of watching the pot grow down to the wire...

I did a casual Google search, and it looks someone had a similar idea for a difficulty lottery. But when I tried to access it, the site was down.

If someone has already mentioned this idea, then I apologize. Also, if philipma1957 thinks this is off topic, feel free to shut down any resulting discussion.

[philipma1957]

new list

philipma1957  -1.01 to  -1.25%

bitcoin4eva      -0.51 to -0.75%
MegaFall         -0.26  to -0.50%
Kexkey            -0.01 to -0.25%
                            0.00----------------open and is the bonus number with a .2 payout
Jamphone       +0.01 to +0.25%



Quickseller       +1.01 to +1.25%
RedhatCat       +1.26 to +1.50%
notlist3d         +1.51 to +1.75%
valkir              +1.76 to +2.00% -------- corrected from 1.75 to 2.00
jmumich          +2.01 to +2.25%
freedomno1      +2.26 to + 2.50%
frankenmint       +2.51 to +2.75%
edonkey           +2.76 to +3.00%
armedmilitia    +3,.01 to +3.25


tlhIlwI              +3.76 to +4.00%
HerbPean          +4.01 to +4.25%

buyandhold      +5.01 to +5.25%

ezeminer        +7.76 to +8.00%

 I think this is up to date.

[philipma1957]

This series of threads is really great. Thanks to philipma1957 for starting the original discussion. And thanks to Suchmoon for adding the fun factor, and putting up the bounty, of course.

Has anyone thought of setting up a difficulty betting site? I'm thinking that people would pick ranges (you'd have to allow overlap) and actually post BTC to an escrow address. When the winning value is selected, the pot would be divided by the number of winners. Think of the excitement of watching the pot grow down to the wire...

I did a casual Google search, and it looks someone had a similar idea for a difficulty lottery. But when I tried to access it, the site was down.

If someone has already mentioned this idea, then I apologize. Also, if philipma1957 thinks this is off topic, feel free to shut down any resulting discussion.

I am against it  only because it takes some fun away.

This thread provides  a lot of talk about difficulty plenty of speculation.  Plus a chance at a free prize.

In a way it is like the most exotic  btc faucet ever done.

No pressure no money out of pocket. (except for suchmoon thanks for that).

If you follow it it is a place or spot for fun and some ideas and info.

Heck it even inspired the speadsheet on google.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=978410053  

jmumich did it This was nice work done for free.   Not sure if he will do it again and not quite sure of the slight difference he had for the adjustment.  Most likely a time zone issue

 But until he did this  we I have never seen a 'real' time chart. this was his post on it.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=964922.msg10618341#msg10618341

[skuser]

This series of threads is really great. Thanks to philipma1957 for starting the original discussion. And thanks to Suchmoon for adding the fun factor, and putting up the bounty, of course.

Has anyone thought of setting up a difficulty betting site? I'm thinking that people would pick ranges (you'd have to allow overlap) and actually post BTC to an escrow address. When the winning value is selected, the pot would be divided by the number of winners. Think of the excitement of watching the pot grow down to the wire...

I did a casual Google search, and it looks someone had a similar idea for a difficulty lottery. But when I tried to access it, the site was down.

If someone has already mentioned this idea, then I apologize. Also, if philipma1957 thinks this is off topic, feel free to shut down any resulting discussion.

I used to bet on diff on fairlay.com back in nov/dec, but it has no difficulty bets anymore (you can create one if you want). Despite the interest in this thread there were simply not enough people interested in betting. Another site with diff. bets is bitbet.us, there are currently 2 longer term diff bets running there.

As for betting in this thread, It may be a fun factor but it killed the discussion (or at least made it hard to follow between numbers posted).

[Xian01]

+2.43%

[zebedee]

4.76%-5.00% please

[tertius993]

Too slow again, so +3.26 to +3.50 please.

[davejh]

I'll go with +0.26 to +0.5 this time :-)

[SimplisticStu]

My guess is +0.76 - 1.00%

Thanks again suchmoon for continuing this promo 

[SunnyIgor]

+3,51 to 3,75%

going for two in a row

[TheAnalogKid]

I'd like -1.76 to -2.00 please.

I think with Spondoolies out of stock on most of their hardware, Bitmain also not selling tons, there's just not enough supply to deploy to push the hash rate up significantly.  Also it's going to start warming up soon, maybe not in time for this adjustment, which will tip a lot of the marginal miners with expensive power into the red.

I'm starting to agree with diff under 50 through to May.

[philipma1957]

New list

TheAnalogKid   -1.76 to -2.00%
philipma1957  -1.01 to  -1.25%

bitcoin4eva      -0.51 to -0.75%
MegaFall         -0.26  to -0.50%
Kexkey            -0.01 to -0.25%
                            0.00----------------open and is the bonus number with a .2 payout
Jamphone       +0.01 to +0.25%
davejh            +0.26 to +0.50

simplisticStu    +0.76 to +1.00%
Quickseller       +1.01 to +1.25%
RedhatCat       +1.26 to +1.50%
notlist3d         +1.51 to +1.75%
valkir              +1.76 to +2.00% -------- corrected from 1.75 to 2.00
jmumich          +2.01 to +2.25%
freedomno1      +2.26 to + 2.50%
frankenmint       +2.51 to +2.75%
edonkey           +2.76 to +3.00%
armedmilitia    +3.01 to +3.25
tertius993        +3.26 to +3.50
SunnyIgor         +3.51 to +3.75%
tlhIlwI              +3.76 to +4.00%
HerbPean          +4.01 to +4.25%

zebedee             +4.76 to +5.00%
buyandhold      +5.01 to +5.25%


ezeminer        +7.76 to +8.00%



Slots are filling in 


@ Xian01


your pick of +2.43  is taken by freedomno1  he has +2.26 to +2.50  we have  some  like these left:

4.26% to  +4.50%

4.51% to +4.75%

 I think this is up to date.

[philipma1957]

As for current diff  numbers here goes:

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (+1.58%)



Bitcoin Difficulty:   47,427,554,951
Estimated Next Difficulty:   48,176,028,050 (+1.58%)
Adjust time:   After 1908 Blocks, About 13.2 days
Hashrate(?):   340,487,161 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.8 minutes
6 blocks: 59.5 minutes
Updated:   8:50 (2.4 minutes ago)


http://btc.blockr.io/charts

march 8

155 blocks  vs 144 normal    but most of them were made on the last adjustment


http://bitcoincharts.com/  (+0.49%)


Blocks   346860
Total BTC   13.922M
 
Difficulty   47427554951
Estimated   47662803147 in 1908 blks
 
Network total   339076.716 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.99 / 601 s


As to what happens short term only avalon 4.1 is selling decent gear,
 but it is a bit costly due to the premium it puts on quiet running.

Sp-tech has some sp31's left to sell at 2075 plus shipping.

and MegaBigPower is still buying used gear.

 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=976450.0


No one Knows when KNC or Bitfury will deploy there new super gear.

No one knows if some superplayer will build completely off the grid.

AsicMiner's Fried Cat is still missing.----Not sure about this.

Lastly price is 279 usd.

what does all that info point to?  Well it is a spec thread lets spec.

I still push the idea that both KNC and BitFury do not need to expand very much.  If their gear is really good simple replacement of current  hashpower  with better more efficient gear
and very little expansion works for them.

It also ends the endless upward spiral of  network hash power  wells slows it.
My continued mining depends on this idea.
I know the economics of that works. I don't know if the bigger players will go along with it.
Last adjustment is a perfect example of what I want to happen

Very slow diff jump under 2%
A good price jump over 10%

Frankly I think the builders are trying to manipulate the hash power supply to make this continue to happen.
    I like this idea. I really hope for these patterns to carry on.

[SimplisticStu]

Very slow diff jump under 2%
A good price jump over 10%

I would agree this is an ideal situation for the home miners to continue, for now anyway