Bitcoin Forum

 Diff was 1.59%

See old thread winner was sunnyIgor

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=964922.0;all

As usual self modded  thank you seriouscoin!

 My pick is ( -1.11)  also thank you seriouscoin!


  I  don't know if suchmoon will change rules of promo.

Edit- He does have money for this diff adjustment and a few more after that.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=964922.msg10706800#msg10706800


Difficulty History

Date   -------------------Difficulty   Change   --Hash Rate


Mar  8  2015      47,427,554,951   1.59%    339,499,662 GH/s
      
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941   5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014   18,736,441,558   8.08%   134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014   17,336,316,979   3.08%   124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s
Jun 18 2014   13,462,580,115   14.51%   96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014   11,756,551,917   12.44%   84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014   10,455,720,138   18.10%   74,844,960 GH/s
May 12 2014   8,853,416,309   10.66%   63,375,223 GH/s
Apr 29 2014   8,000,872,136   14.64%   57,272,474 GH/s
Apr 17 2014   6,978,842,650   14.04%   49,956,502 GH/s
Apr 05 2014   6,119,726,089   22.23%   43,806,706 GH/s
Mar 24 2014   5,006,860,589   17.80%   35,840,504 GH/s
Mar 13 2014   4,250,217,920   11.39%   30,424,245 GH/s
Feb 28 2014   3,815,723,799   21.92%   27,314,015 GH/s
Feb 17 2014   3,129,573,175   19.39%   22,402,357 GH/s
Feb 05 2014   2,621,404,453   19.49%   18,764,744 GH/s
Jan 24 2014   2,193,847,870   22.59%   15,704,175 GH/s
Jan 13 2014   1,789,546,951   26.16%   12,810,076 GH/s
Jan 02 2014   1,418,481,395   20.12%   10,153,885 GH/s
Dec 21 2013   1,180,923,195   30.01%   8,453,378 GH/s
Dec 10 2013   908,350,862   28.41%   6,502,229 GH/s
Nov 29 2013   707,408,283   16.07%   5,063,826 GH/s
Nov 17 2013   609,482,680   19.29%   4,362,847 GH/s
Nov 05 2013   510,929,738   30.70%   3,657,378 GH/s
Oct 26 2013   390,928,788   46.02%   2,798,377 GH/s
Oct 16 2013   267,731,249   41.45%   1,916,495 GH/s
Oct 06 2013   189,281,249   27.19%   1,354,928 GH/s
Sep 25 2013   148,819,200   32.13%   1,065,289 GH/s
Sep 14 2013   112,628,549   29.56%   806,227 GH/s
Sep 04 2013   86,933,018   32.22%   622,291 GH/s
Aug 24 2013   65,750,060   29.40%   470,657 GH/s
Aug 13 2013   50,810,339   35.88%   363,715 GH/s
Aug 03 2013   37,392,766   19.63%   267,668 GH/s
Jul 22 2013   31,256,961   19.47%   223,746 GH/s

place mark

place holder


please wait till tonight to post since last thread has a few hours before adjustment happens.

I'll take +0.01% to 0.25% again please

1.51 to 1.75 please

I do not know if suchmoon will continue a new promo.

But if he does the picks above are noted.

+2.01 - 2.25% please

+3.89% (+3.76-4.00%)

I would guess +1.01 to +1.25%

I am not sure what caused the short term block time to fall so much, however it appears to be a blip, and the 1008 average block time seems to have been holding steady at roughly the above pace

+4.20% (4.01-4.25)
Thanks

My guess is +1.51% to +1.75%

Does anyone know if suchmoon actually plans on continuing?

your pick is taken see above notlist3d,

As for this promo so far suchmoon has not confirmed he will run it anymore.

I change my guess to +1.26% to +1.50% (didn't see him)

that looks good.

new list

philipma1957  -1.01 to  -1.25%


Jamphone       +0.01 to +0.25%



Quickseller       +1.01 to +1.25%
RedhatCat       +1.26 to +1.50%
notlist3d         +1.51 to +1.75%


jmumich          +2.01 to +2.25%
freedomno1      +2.26 to + 2.50%
frankenmint       2.51 to +2.75%


tlhIlwI              +3.76 to +4.00%
HerbPean          +4.01 to +4.25%

2.65%

Seeing these here makes me think that there's quite a number of folks throttling hardware or keeping it at bay for diff drops.  I've also seen some setups on rental sites like betarigs but not too many.

I'll take 2.25 to 2.5 before someone else gets it
Looks like a fun game

Ill do 7.77% with 7.76-8

1,75 - 2 for me  ;D

5.11 so +5.01 to +5.25% please

3.01-3.25

Man, it sucks when you're so close and it just swings right down!

Ill have to go with the OP. Hopefully it drops a little ; )

-0.51 to -0.75

Our youngest cat (the one that's the closest guesser; almost nabbed the last one) says +2.76% to +3%.

I think that might be a little high, but slots are filling up fast and beggars can't be choosers.

Congratulations to SunnyIgor!

This time I'll go with -0.01 to -0.25.

Good luck to all!

EDIT: % that is, obviously!

OFFICIAL RULES FOR THE MOST ACCURATE GUESS REWARD

are here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=964922.msg10550525#msg10550525
(in other words, nothing has changed since the previous cycle except there is of course a new deadline).

Deadline is 02:00 (2 AM) UTC March 15th, 2015

I'll take -0.26% to -0.50%.

This series of threads is really great. Thanks to philipma1957 for starting the original discussion. And thanks to Suchmoon for adding the fun factor, and putting up the bounty, of course.

Has anyone thought of setting up a difficulty betting site? I'm thinking that people would pick ranges (you'd have to allow overlap) and actually post BTC to an escrow address. When the winning value is selected, the pot would be divided by the number of winners. Think of the excitement of watching the pot grow down to the wire...

I did a casual Google search, and it looks someone had a similar idea for a difficulty lottery. But when I tried to access it, the site was down.

If someone has already mentioned this idea, then I apologize. Also, if philipma1957 thinks this is off topic, feel free to shut down any resulting discussion.

 I think this is up to date.

I am against it  only because it takes some fun away.

This thread provides  a lot of talk about difficulty plenty of speculation.  Plus a chance at a free prize.

In a way it is like the most exotic  btc faucet ever done.

No pressure no money out of pocket. (except for suchmoon thanks for that).

If you follow it it is a place or spot for fun and some ideas and info.

Heck it even inspired the speadsheet on google.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=978410053  

jmumich did it This was nice work done for free.   Not sure if he will do it again and not quite sure of the slight difference he had for the adjustment.  Most likely a time zone issue

 But until he did this  we I have never seen a 'real' time chart. this was his post on it.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=964922.msg10618341#msg10618341

I used to bet on diff on fairlay.com back in nov/dec, but it has no difficulty bets anymore (you can create one if you want). Despite the interest in this thread there were simply not enough people interested in betting. Another site with diff. bets is bitbet.us, there are currently 2 longer term diff bets running there.

As for betting in this thread, It may be a fun factor but it killed the discussion (or at least made it hard to follow between numbers posted).

+2.43%

4.76%-5.00% please

Too slow again, so +3.26 to +3.50 please.

I'll go with +0.26 to +0.5 this time :-)

My guess is +0.76 - 1.00%

Thanks again suchmoon for continuing this promo  ;D

+3,51 to 3,75%

going for two in a row ;D

I'd like -1.76 to -2.00 please.

I think with Spondoolies out of stock on most of their hardware, Bitmain also not selling tons, there's just not enough supply to deploy to push the hash rate up significantly.  Also it's going to start warming up soon, maybe not in time for this adjustment, which will tip a lot of the marginal miners with expensive power into the red.

I'm starting to agree with diff under 50 through to May.

As for current diff  numbers here goes:

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (+1.58%)



Bitcoin Difficulty:   47,427,554,951
Estimated Next Difficulty:   48,176,028,050 (+1.58%)
Adjust time:   After 1908 Blocks, About 13.2 days
Hashrate(?):   340,487,161 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.8 minutes
6 blocks: 59.5 minutes
Updated:   8:50 (2.4 minutes ago)


http://btc.blockr.io/charts

march 8

155 blocks  vs 144 normal    but most of them were made on the last adjustment


http://bitcoincharts.com/  (+0.49%)


Blocks   346860
Total BTC   13.922M
 
Difficulty   47427554951
Estimated   47662803147 in 1908 blks
 
Network total   339076.716 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.99 / 601 s


As to what happens short term only avalon 4.1 is selling decent gear,
 but it is a bit costly due to the premium it puts on quiet running.

Sp-tech has some sp31's left to sell at 2075 plus shipping.

and MegaBigPower is still buying used gear.

 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=976450.0


No one Knows when KNC or Bitfury will deploy there new super gear.

No one knows if some superplayer will build completely off the grid.

AsicMiner's Fried Cat is still missing.----Not sure about this.

Lastly price is 279 usd.

what does all that info point to?  Well it is a spec thread lets spec.

I still push the idea that both KNC and BitFury do not need to expand very much.  If their gear is really good simple replacement of current  hashpower  with better more efficient gear
and very little expansion works for them.

It also ends the endless upward spiral of  network hash power  wells slows it.
My continued mining depends on this idea.
I know the economics of that works. I don't know if the bigger players will go along with it.
Last adjustment is a perfect example of what I want to happen

Very slow diff jump under 2%
A good price jump over 10%

Frankly I think the builders are trying to manipulate the hash power supply to make this continue to happen.
    I like this idea. I really hope for these patterns to carry on.

I would agree this is an ideal situation for the home miners to continue, for now anyway

After a cursory glance over what's been taken so far, I'll take +4.26% to +4.50% (assuming that one's still open).

I think this is up to date.

Thanks - I will keep doing it as long as I have the spare time, and add new data as well. I'm pretty confident that the difficulty estimate was off due to the fact that we switched to daylight saving time in the US on Sunday morning, and it was not accounting for the jump from 1:59 a.m. to 3:00 a.m. on Sunday morning. It just assumed that no blocks were solved the entire hour that ordinarily would have been there, and adjusted the estimate downward by about the same amount I ended up being off. I manually corrected for the hour, and it would have predicted 1.54% but for the daylight saving bug, much closer to the 1.59% actual increase.

Remember the estimate is pretty 'dumb' at this point, it only tells you what difficulty would be if all blocks were solved at the same pace as the blocks that were already solved so far this round. Thus, it becomes more accurate as the round moves on.

This link should always go to the current difficulty period: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g

Please let me know if you have any thoughts or suggestions.

Will select 0 as usual :)

That would be sooooooooooo Epic as well as my 4-20 :D

sounds good

I'll take -1.51 to -1.75

I can be hopeful.  ;)

-0.76 to -1.00

I'll take -1.26 to -1.50%

Will be interesting time waiting on next gen gear.  New S5 price seems like it will help keep difficulty low.   

Also BTC price moving up slowly which is nice.  Maybe a few good months for miners.

would be nice to see it get over 300 a coin

at seriouscoin   my pick is -1.11%   but contest rules call for a range


so  the range is -1.01 to -1.25%


because  I love you man I will give you the btc on the entire range except for -1.11%

So if you see -1.01 to -1.10   or -1.12 to -1.25% 


I would win the 0.10 btc and


 I philipma1957 will give you MR. serious (fucking) coin AKA seriouscoin the prize money I would have taken.

 How is that for taking you seriously?

of course if it comes -1.11%  I will keep it and buy a nice bottle of cab and drink a toast to you.

and if it fall outside the -1.01 to -1.25% range this post will be but a passing moment  of reading for those that  have some fun on

 
bitcointalk.

 :D ;D :D ;D :D ;D :D ;D :D

If it hits exactly -1.11% I say we all chip in a little bit and send you a nice bottle of wine.  ;)

Any idea why the difficulty isn't rising considering BTC is about to break $300


Isn't that when cloud mining is back up and Antminer S1 get turned on?

I see diff moving at the 325 to 350 level. Not so much the 300 level.   lets say there is 30ph or 40ph  in s-1 and s-2 along with some dragon miners .

Some of it is running at 5 cent power farms. Or free power spots.

so lets say there is  30ph at 10 cents and 1.1 watts

1th at 1100 watts 300 usd and 10 cents makes  48 cents a day
1th at 1100 watts 325 usd and 10 cents makes 75 cents a day
1th at 1100 watts 350 usd and 10 cents makes 1 dollar a day

So diff will not fly up much until the 350 level is passed.


the google link is back

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=204080645

 it reads -3.74%    now give me  a -3 jump with coins at 310 usd on march 22nd.

This would be great.

place me here in between!
thx!

LE: we go negative atm!!! -0.11% :D

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  has (+0.30%)



Bitcoin Difficulty:   47,427,554,951
Estimated Next Difficulty:   47,571,120,448 (+0.30%)

Adjust time:   After 1702 Blocks, About 11.9 days------------------1702 blocks to go

Hashrate(?):   350,301,605 GH/s

Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.2 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   18:25 (3.8 minutes ago)

jmumich has his  spreadsheet   google real time  it is  (+1.23%)



https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=204080645



@ Xian01   pick a number  your pick was taken!!


Price is hovering very close to but not over 300 usd.  If we breakout I wonder if a mad rush up will happen.

 Just blow past 400 and up to 425-450.

Time will tell.  I have been clocking the s-5 sales in 36 hours about 300 pieces sold  around 350th see link.



 this is btc only not cc or bank transfer

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=902305.msg10730677#msg10730677

my guess>

+0.51 % to +0.75 %

+4.25% to +4.50

 @ Xian01 please pick a new number

has been picked  
below are open:        

+ 5.26 to +5.50
+5.51 to +5.75
+5.76 to + 6.00
+ 6.01  to +6.25
+6.26 to + 6.50
+6.51 to + 6.75
+6.76 to +7.00
+7.01 to + 7.25
+7.26 to + 7.50
+7.51 to + 7.75


then
all over 8

+8.01 to + 8.25  and all range over





negative open:

-1.26 to -1.50%
then all lower then -2

-2.01 to -2.25 and on and on


so roadstress and Xian01  please pick new numbers

Just wanted to throw a thank you to philipma1957 for running the contest, and suchmoon for funding!

It is a fun idea for those who watch difficulty a lot.

I think I spoke for -1.26 to -1.50%.

I think the live spreadsheet is stuck on yesterdays date.

My guess is -2.01 to -2.25%

It looks like it may be closer to zero however that is the closest to what I think will happen that is available.

I think it is very interesting to see how little the difficulty has increased even though the price has increased by >$50 (~22%)

Yeah, that'll happen, I still have to move the dates manually. It has no impact on the overall total for the period, or really anything else but the specific numbers for the date.

Fixed now.

I will check on that.

Thanks. I pick: + 5.26 to +5.50

jmumich has his  spreadsheet   google real time  it is  (+3.18%)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=204080645

according to news reports a number of mining pools have been under DDOS attack in recent days. I received an email from bitmain yesterday saying that they received a ransome notice and if they did not pay their services would be out under DDOS attack.

According to news reports BW.com stated in their blog that they have been subject to similar ransom demands.

This may be partially why difficulty has been so slow to increase in recent times.

As far as I'm concerned as long as difficulty stays down we are all winners.  I might not have been able to claim the BTC0.1 prize last time, but I'm earning about BTC0.03 more during these 2016 blocks than if my guess was correct.   If that can repeat then I'm all for it!

As a bonus the price is up too, which means I don't have to cash out as big of a percentage of earnings to cover the power bill (more BTC kept long term).  

I can't complain  if diff is under 2% and price jumps 10%

Same here.  With price jump it's been nice.  Seems 300 is going to be a little barrier chances are with auto sells etc.  But I'm hoping in next month to pass 300 mark consistently.

jmumich 's sheet

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=204080645

gives us 'real' time +1.26%


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

future numb is good

(+1.43%)


price is

291 usd.

At 300 usd and 1.5% jumps   my sp20e's can earn over power until sept 2016

Price seems good 290+ with current diffficulty i just keep hoping to get the 300+ .

This is a interesting time with miners seems kinda to be between generations.   I'm hoping this means difficulty stays low or a bit.

I think its better for price to stay below $300. Anything above $300 and the difficulty will keep increasing.

For miners, its better for price to stay low. Not for BTC coin holders however.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=204080645

shows a drop to +0.44%


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  has us at +1.51%

1234 blocks to go  price is drifting down to 278 usd

I think  that   the run at 300 usd may be over for a while.  Which could help diff keep low.

I think today will be a -20% day due to all these top 3 pools getting DDOS.

Had to join a new pool today because all my failover were dead.

this is a good point.  One of the things I like about BTC is endless unexpected variations turn up.  This is an other reason that the sp20e is the gold standard of gear.  Nice and easy to list 8 different pools to mine at.

the google  charts show a drop

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=204080645


to -1.02 percentage   that is a winner for my range if it stays put.  And serious coin would get the .1btc how about that.

Hey serious you have a routing interest !!   maybe he is doing the ddos himself LOL

With the DDOS attacks do you think there's people desperately trying to keep the difficulty down?

I hope that this time i won ..

With backup pools I do not see this as much of a factor in difficulty.  At this point everyone should have fail over pool's.

I think it shows a bad trend seeing multiple get attacked for not paying "ransoms".  It is more of a pain and costs the pool money to fix, then it costs the miner.

I know I personally have not had a time where my 3 pools all are down.

 I think the s-5 can be ssh'd into 4 or 5 pools.

I think the avalon 4.1 can do 4 or 5 pools.

These attacks hurt Asic miner prisma + tube owners

I think a rocker miner is only 2 pool choice.

Sp20e have lots of pool choices.

You can also have the issue that rented hash gets fully lost.  see posts here.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=559011.msg10738471#msg10738471

this cost me about 0.03-0.04 btc but rentals were small.   be busy for 4 hours when you are renting 500th for a day and find you lost a whole btc in hash due to ddos attacks.

I guess - 2.26% to -2.50% (if it is not too late)

It is possible that whoever is DDoS'ing the various pools is doing so at more then one pool at a time and as a result both the primary and the backup are affected. Also just because there is the option to set more then one backup does not mean that the owner of a miner will set more then one backup (or set one at all as we say the other week when ghash was DDoS'ed).

I think if these kinds of attacks last long enough it will move mining even further away from pool mining into more centralized corporate farm mining. When a pool is successfully DDoS'ed they effectively shut down and stop working. However a corporate mining farm can do something as simple as switch to a backup internet connection if their node starts getting DDoS'ed

2 am UTC time is 10 pm eastern standard time  it is 6:20 pm so  under 4 hours left.

New list

rikkie              - 2.26% to -2.50%
mirjangka        -2.01 to  -2.25%
TheAnalogKid   -1.76 to -2.00%
thedreamer      -1.51 to -1.75%
alh                  -1.26 to -1.50%
philipma1957  -1.01 to  -1.25%
Mikestang        -0.76 to -1.00%
bitcoin4eva      -0.51 to -0.75%
MegaFall         -0.26  to -0.50%
Kexkey            -0.01 to -0.25%
A4Tech                    0.00----------------bonus number with a 0.2 payout
Jamphone       +0.01 to +0.25%
davejh            +0.26 to +0.50%
tarmi              +0.51 to +0.75%
simplisticStu    +0.76 to +1.00%
Quickseller       +1.01 to +1.25%
RedhatCat       +1.26 to +1.50%
notlist3d         +1.51 to +1.75%
valkir              +1.76 to +2.00% -------- corrected from 1.75 to 2.00
jmumich          +2.01 to +2.25%
freedomno1      +2.26 to + 2.50%
frankenmint       +2.51 to +2.75%
edonkey           +2.76 to +3.00%
armedmilitia    +3.01 to +3.25
tertius993        +3.26 to +3.50
SunnyIgor         +3.51 to +3.75%
tlhIlwI              +3.76 to +4.00%
HerbPean          +4.01 to +4.25%
Korbman           +4.26 to +4.50%
mavericklm        +4.51 to +4.75%
zebedee             +4.76 to +5.00%
buyandhold      +5.01 to +5.25%
RoadStress       +5.26 to +5.50%


ezeminer        +7.76 to +8.00%



Slots are really filling in  

5.51 to 7.75  I think that is 9 different ranges.


+5.51 to +5.75
+5.76 to + 6.00
+ 6.01  to +6.25
+6.26 to + 6.50
+6.51 to + 6.75
+6.76 to +7.00
+7.01 to + 7.25
+7.26 to + 7.50
+7.51 to + 7.75

then
all over 8

+8.01 to + 8.25  and all range over

negative open:


all lower then -2.51

-2.51 to -2.76 and on and on





 I think this is up to date.

 


Xian01  still looking for a new pick

I am going to pencil Xian01 in as  something at the last minute rather then leave him out.

Since a final list has not yet been made, I would consider guessing a difficulty decline of -2.51 to -2.75%

The whole DDOS issue is likely going to cause miners to effectively go offline that based on economics should not be offline

FINAL LIST
New entries no longer eligible for the reward but don't let that stop you from embarrassing yourself with further guesses  ;D

Please take a minute to find your name in the list and verify if your numbers are accurate. Thank you.

west420 -2.51 to -2.75%
rikkie -2.26% to -2.50%
mirjangka -2.01% to -2.25%
TheAnalogKid -1.76% to -2.00%
thedreamer -1.51% to -1.75%
alh -1.26% to -1.50%
philipma1957  -1.01% to  -1.25%
Mikestang -0.76% to -1.00%
bitcoin4eva -0.51% to -0.75%
MegaFall -0.26% to -0.50%
Kexkey -0.01% to -0.25%
A4Tech 0.00% -------- DOUBLE REWARD
Jamphone +0.01% to +0.25%
davejh +0.26% to +0.50%
tarmi +0.51% to +0.75%
SimplisticStu +0.76% to +1.00%
Quickseller +1.01% to +1.25%
RedhatCAT +1.26% to +1.50%
notlist3d +1.51% to +1.75%
valkir +1.76% to +2.00%
jmumich +2.01% to +2.25%
freedomno1 +2.26% to +2.50%
frankenmint +2.51% to +2.75%
edonkey's cat +2.76% to +3.00%
armedmilitia +3.01% to +3.25%
tertius993 +3.26% to +3.50%
SunnyIgor +3.51% to +3.75%
tlhIlwI +3.76% to +4.00%
HerbPean +4.01% to +4.25%
Korbman +4.26% to +4.50%
mavericklm +4.51% to +4.75%
zebedee +4.76% to +5.00%
buyandhold +5.01% to +5.25%
RoadStress +5.26% to +5.50%
--- gap -- let's put Xian01 at +5.51% to +5.75%
ezeminer +7.76% to +8.00%

this may turn out to be the best pick yet

real time google is -0.98%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=204080645

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  is +0.78% price is 276 usd


Bitcoin Difficulty:   47,427,554,951
Estimated Next Difficulty:   47,796,950,794 (+0.78%)
Adjust time:   After 1109 Blocks, About 7.7 days
Hashrate(?):   326,239,702 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 29.9 minutes
6 blocks: 59.8 minutes

real time google is -1.11   stop the contest now

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=204080645


http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/1280x1024q90/673/KPwN20.png

hmm philp , such , : if the diff near 0.00% like 0.22% or so i won ?

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  shows (+0.69%)  price is  280   1062 blocks left


Bitcoin Difficulty:   47,427,554,951
Estimated Next Difficulty:   47,752,580,038 (+0.69%)
Adjust time:   After 1062 Blocks, About 7.4 days
Hashrate(?):   325,662,248 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 29.9 minutes
6 blocks: 59.9 minutes
Updated:   7:15 (5.0 minutes ago)


these numbers still make money for me.

It will be very interesting to see what happens this summer.

I go to 16 cents in the summer.

  It is possible I may be able to run these sp20's in the summer.

   No you have only 1 shot at winning 0%.

  Someone has the above and someone has the below.
 It pays double.  It is 25x harder to win then picking a range.

looks like we jumped up just a bit on the google real time chart.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=204080645

-0.56% with price at 295 on coin base.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+0.42%)



Bitcoin Difficulty:   47,427,554,951
Estimated Next Difficulty:   47,628,066,716 (+0.42%)
Adjust time:   After 962 Blocks, About 6.7 days
Hashrate(?):   330,258,114 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 30.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   23:20 (55.0 seconds ago)

so -.5 to +.5  on the two predictors.  we have 962 blocks left.

I heard new gear from bitmaintech.com is coming but  zero proof .  they did drop price down to 369 plus 47 to ship to the usa so 416  I think this slows sales a lot.

Well one thing that the spreadsheet, nor bitcoinwisdom will take into account is the ddos attacks that appear (somewhat) to be over. If the attacks are generally over then we would have seen a temporary drop in the hashrate that using statistical analysis would not be able to pick up.

I would guesstimate that the ddos attacks will cause the difficulty increase to be ~1% lower then it otherwise would be (or the decrease be 1% more) and the estimate for the next difficulty change to be off by ~0.5% until we are ~85% or so through the difficulty period

well the spreadsheet has real time number which is about   -0.69  that is the actually number if we jump now.

It has future numbers at 3 and 5 days.  Those numbers may be wrong due to the ddos attack.  But the real number is for right now.

 below it is -0.69%   That is in 'real' time.  The futures  numbers for 3 days and for 5 days are the guess past on the trends up to now.
 
The google chart is like a horse race announcer  and -0.69% is   the horse in the lead at a little bit past the halfway point. 

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/1280x1024q90/908/JLACCE.png

Looking good

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,427,554,951
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,514,987,511 (+0.18%)
Adjust time:    After 960 Blocks, About 6.7 days

I personally think effect of DDOS is not huge on difficulty.  It was surprising though how much it could effect a pool if you watched antpool during. Most miner's should have fail over pools.  I'm sure lazyness caught some but majority should be fine.

Just usual trolling guys to keep you in perspective, analyzing block after block or even day after day has no value. This is not like checking factory output where any change has its reason, finding blocks is random process within some rules. There maybe absolutely no hashrate change behind +/-2% difficulty change, it's just the blocks finding probability.

Debbie Downer  ;D

This is a spec thread in  the spec  section.  It is for fun more then any other thing.  

It also provides a longer history  since there have been more then 20 of them.

If you go back and read them all , my common theme has been diff will slow and level off.

I have mentioned that in a ton of the threads.  So far I have been correct about the diff growth entering a new stage.

A lot of good ideas have popped up here and we have had some fun.  Suchmoon has made things a lot more interesting.

Biggest surprise for me  was the price tank after the sp20's and s-5 's came out.  Price was over 400 in NOV and  is now under 300.

Do you mine yourself? I find it a fun to spend a little time.  I would not agree with thread having no value.  I find it fun to speculate.

Sure we all could just wait till difficulty change and not guess.  But that would not be much fun.

 

I read this a second time and lets say it is all variance . (+/-) 1 or 2 percent.

Even better info then you realize  we can now spec is it variance or is it ddos or is simple btc price to diff ratio. or is it s-3's still make money at low power locations and people are shifting gear rather then buying gear.

  In the s-3 case I live in Northern Cali.  power is 25 cents.  I ship 20 s-3's to a guy in washington state. I give 12 to him for free. And he hosts my other 8 for free.  He makes money since his power is 3-4 cents.  I make out since my s-3 's were worth zip in northern cali.

there is 50ph in s-3's they are tanks and they are keeping growth down as they more to low cost power spots and are done in a barter move like I describe above.

Phil I am right with you. I was trying to find someone up in WA area to give miners to and split profit with but had no luck finding anyone I could trust.

LOL you're not Dave Carlson Right (joking)

What hardware are you running?  I know a diff. guy in your exact same situation with a full facility but NO capacity for other hardware that he has sitting on shelf.

I rather have shipped my S1's to someone than selling them on Craigslist at $50 a piece when I did. Then I would have even maybe sent some of my S3's as I had to sell to make room for the S5's in the basement. Even now thinking of getting rid of more before summer gets here and things get to hot.

Summer is a pain for us miners.  The free winter air is very nice to have.  So far I think I'm down to a level I can keep all summer.  But I am watching close to make sure I don't need any more fans. 

Depending on the miner you might look into underclocking.  I know that helped me on a few miners.

Unless you live in a desert like I do, then winter air is just as hot as summer air. :(

It was 90*F all weekend, my AC has been running since last month.  Plus I pay $0.20/kwh and up.  Good think I only mine as a hobby, not for profit.

yeah I am in NJ

Fall
Winter
Spring  all at 13 cents a kwatt and with heat benefits say 10 cents a kwatt

Summer 16 cents a kwatt  and with heat penalty say 18 cents a kwatt

I got free electricity over here but with the coming spring it will come down to shutting some miners down. Whenever its 40F or higher, the GPU miners need to be powered off due to massive heat.

All of my miners are very inefficient. I got GPUs, KNC Jupiters, and some S3+.

The S3+ are my most efficient miners.

I didn't want to pull the trigger on any more efficient miners because they all seem overpriced at the moment. All the miners I got made ROI a while ago so everyday is a positive day. I don't think I can buy an S5 or SP20 and have to wait 6 months to get ROI. I really wish the prices were more fair when it came to pricing mining equipment.

And that is one of the great things about mining community being so big.  I know at around 10 cents I decided to get rid of S3+'s before summer heat.  But with cheap and "free" there is a market for them still.  And the S3's are built pretty rock solid.

We hit 70 today here in Northern Indiana and I hear my S5's fans cycling up and down in the basement.... The wife is not going to like this..   ::)

I've got all my windows open in the basement, going to have to move the heaters out to the garage soon. I just know that as soon as I bring them out, cold weather will be back.

I still run a pair of batch 1 s-3's at my friends office.
 We have a 2.4 cent power deal at his place.  must be 600 to 800 watts must be quiet.

The pair of s-3's running at freq 212 hash 850 gh and use 650 watts. They will earn money until diff is 100

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,427,554,951
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,508,999,644 (+0.17%)
Adjust time:    After 820 Blocks, About 5.7 days

And BTC around 290.  Looking like another nice difficulty jump so far.

yeah they can just chug a long.

Luck to all mining.

-0.48% (at time of post) and price staying sub $300, would be nice to see a decline in difficulty and to break through the £300 barrier again or am I asking too much right now?

Won't happen. Either price will break $300 and difficulty will rise, or price will fall and difficulty will stay the same or go down.

Yeah that's what the rational side of my brain thought at first but then I thought it would be nice to break through $300 and keep the difficulty down.

It might happen, maybe if we see a 2nd wave of DDOS attacks  ???

If BTC would  stay in this  price range 280-300usd  and diff does -0.5% for the next 3 jumps  I will sign up for that in a heartbeat.


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=204080645  the live number is  (-1.68%)  we have about 722 blocks to go

coinbase is 295 usd

With failover pools I think loss of mining power is small.  Most don't use just 1 pool in their miners.   Sure some do.... but they would not long with these attacks hurting pools.

Yep not much more to go, also nearing 14 million coins generated
Doubt it will have much impact on mining speed though but it seemed like an interesting note.
13,950,550 when I posted :)

I always wonder how many of those coins have been lost for all time, due to misplaced keys or corrupted hard drives, etc.

This one surely looks lost :)

https://blockchain.info/address/1111111111111111111114oLvT2

Wow never seen one so full of 1's with money in it.  If someone truly has that I would like to know how long they used vanitygen to make it.  Or how ever they got it.

Look at the hash160 which is all 0's... Strange.  Somewhat impressive actually.

WOW. Another -10% day again. Looks like we might actuall get the difficulty reduced next Monday.

Great news for miners.

I think you might be right. The spreadsheet is now showing the estimated difficulty to be -1.92%, although the 3 day moving average is lower at -3.71%

If this drop is being caused by the DDOS attacks, then I am surprised that it is lasting this long, although it could be that pools that were being used by a large corporate farm(s) were affected, and all their miners were effectively kicked offline and for whatever reason were never brought back online.

I would say that if I do not end up winning then the contest will likely roll over because the difficulty will probably decline by more then what I predicted.

I think you may win. It may dip to -3.? then come back.  My guess is a big farm sold off gear to a 2 or 3 cent power prlce  farm

and it will come back on line soon.

Its getting suspensive :) ..

Nice maybe -2% That could be awesome!  ;D

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (-2.12%)     https://www.coinbase.com/charts   coins are now $274.28 :-[



Bitcoin Difficulty:   47,427,554,951
Estimated Next Difficulty:   46,419,854,296 (-2.12%)
Adjust time:   After 635 Blocks, About 4.6 days
Hashrate(?):   329,894,115 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.3 minutes
3 blocks: 31.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   9:0 (4.9 minutes ago)


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=204080645  (-1.69%)

The coin drop to 275 should  cause a bigger downward trend in diff. 

How low you think coin price will go? Maybe back to $220?

It really does look like downward trend is causing less hash:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,427,554,951
Estimated Next Difficulty:    46,444,875,248 (-2.07%)
Adjust time:    After 612 Blocks, About 4.4 days

Very interesting I wonder how many miners are turning on/off with difficulty changes.

Currently a little under 270 on price.

I feel for those that ordered the  469 usd s-5's due on march 30th.

That would make sense.  We have not heard much about next gen still.  So I'm guessing it's pretty small amount.

But those S5's would be in production chances are by this point and being burnt in.

268 usd will slow mining in its tracks. I am thinking a solid drop to  240 would help lower diff more.

down to 255 on coinbase

It has been one disappointing day to say the least.   The BTC price keeps dropping and difficulty is not dropping anywhere near as fast.

Did I miss anything on news for the sudden drop i price?

UK is also going to regulate BTC. Probably more significantly than the US.

Thank you very much appears your exactly right guess I had not read news today: http://www.coindesk.com/breaking-uk-treasury-issues-landmark-digital-currencies-report/

I don't think the difficulty will drop or rise either but remain flat.

Rememember how I kept posting "why isn't the difficulty rising" a few pages back? BTC went from $220 to $300 and difficulty didn't bulge.

On the way down, it won't bulge either unless we maybe go below $200.

well it remains to be seen but a price drop to 198 still works for a lot of miners. The assumption with that 198 price is diff stays under 50.

here is   1 sp20e downclock to 1000th run at 510 watts  

  http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/1280x1024q90/537/QYKijB.png

 here is a pair of s-3's at 10 cents coins at 198 usd and diff at 50 runs at 800 watts http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/1280x1024q90/673/amG4Lf.png


So in both cases if you are not paying to cool off your miners you can run them  at 198 usd a coin

Well I agree with your SP20 but not really worth having 2 S3+ run just to make $1 a month. Most will just turn those off.

If low price continues chances are most would sell it to someone with lower priced electricity.

With price dropping too a 250 it hurt small miners a decent amount today.

not true until the heat of the summer comes. then you need to cool the gear off.

Right now it is 33F in NJ and a lot of the mining world is still getting heat benefit from the miners.
A big guy with a lot of miners like the s-3 will be looking to sell them off to someone with cheap power. But the case for now is the price is holding at 252 not 198 so the rates of diff and hash do not get greatly reduced.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (-1.67%) BTC/USD: 255


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=204080645

(-1.51%)     

maybe the 240 usd mark will scare off more new money or more expansion

maybe under 200 for about 1 entire adjustment  period will do a big drop.

right now about 490 blocks are left. numbers still work.   and the crazy growth of 10 % 15% 20 % 25 % jump after jump after jump seems to be done for now.

I would agree with crazy growth done for now.   Once the next gen chips are out will be interesting if some of the big companies bring back crazy growth.

Since chips have reached a pretty small manufacturing process, I would assume that there won't be large difficulty hikes. Maybe if 20nm or 16nm actually get tested, and work will we see a huge hike. Other than that the only thing that'll affect mining is prices, to cover for electricity, and older hardware dying off.

I keep a spreadsheet to determine the optimum underclock to use on my 4x SP20 rig to maximize the amount of BTC left after taking out to cover the power cost (before the price drop I could do max 0.72V, so lots of headroom left-- more than I expected right now).  At the current difficulty a price of $315 is where efficiency becomes relevant (voltage lowering begins) and a price of $250 is where lower voltages become significant.  The span between those prices results in about a BTC0.39 difference after power.  It takes a difficulty increase of 21% for an equivalent after power difference in earnings as that $65 price span.  I can run at a highly reduced voltage with a price as low as $100 (at current diff) before the numbers go negative, but it really is hardly worth it under $150.  Above $315 things look very nice very fast.  So, at the moment price appears to hurt me more than difficulty (but both hurt).  Of course this is specific to my rig, power rate (0.0875/kWh), etc. and will be very different as conditions change in the future. 

I almost cashed out extra at $296 to cover the April power bill (March projected usage) in advance.  Instead, I opted to hold a bit longer since that bill was still nearly a month away.  With the drop to $248 I probably made the wrong call since the price will probably not make it back before I'm required to cover April.  I'm still keeping my settings at 0.72V for now optimistically hoping for enough return in price that combined with the diff reduction will be close enough (though my spreadsheet says I really should drop to 0.705).

If the price or difficulty do not get me, eventually the weather is going to force a settings reduction.  I had one 70F day already in which I had to open the garage door since the temps were rising into the high 90Fs in the garage.  There is no way I'll be able to run these settings when 80Fs hit.  I wonder how much the weather is going to affect global hash rate (most mining is northern hemisphere) and thus diff in the next couple months?

You are not alone on not cashing out.  Wish I would of for electricity aswell.  But can not go back in time.

Personally I'm thinking BTC price will affect more the crazy growth than the next gen chips.  I don't doubt there will be growth spurts, probably 2 or 3 mid-teens adjustments are likely, but I think it will be more measured.

For giggles, let's assume next gen chips are still 28nm, just more efficient, able to hit say .35w/gh which would be a 30% gain on the best existing chips (.5w/gh).  Let's assume also a June/July delivery timeframe.

I would believe that the largest adoption of those rigs would be with mining farms running on older hardware, say anything that's >6months and over .8w/gh.  For those miners, they've been running the older gear longer, probably at or close to positive ROI where upgrading will benefit them in the long run because of reduced power expenditure.

The mining farms who are spinning up now on the last bits of stock from SPTech and BMTech wouldn't (well, I should say "shouldn't") be in a position to drop large chunks on buying brand new hardware when the ones they just spun up are barely 2 months old.  I honestly don't think they'd be able to match the same 30% difference in the price of selling the old hardware (in other words, they would get 30% positive gain from the new chips for power consumption, but would be selling their hardware for more than a 30% loss, thus equating to a negative total ROI).

The first group, if that happens, will then start a cascade effect for smaller miners, where they can now also replace the higher wattage gear they're running with much cheaper use equipment (say those running S1's for sure, and some S3's will now pick up used S5's on the cheap).  IT'll turn into a sine wave of diff adjustments, dip while old hardware is turned off and sold, then an uptick as the hardware reaches the next set of miners and gets powered on, and then lather, rinse, repeat down the chain.

But, the whole thing with this is the price of BTC.  If it stays low, then even the large farms aren't turning as much of a profit, and that should result in the ability to purchase and deploy less hardware than they could if BTC were higher.  If BTC goes up considerably, then these same places could deploy much larger amounts of hardware, which would drive difficulty through the roof, quickly, much like was seen from middle through late last year (June - November).

If hardware isn't being bought at a rapid pace, that leads manufacturers to not have as much revenue and on-hand capital to push forward on newer, more dense chips like 20nm and 16nm.

Then again, we can speculate till we're blue in the face... who the hell really knows what will happen... :)

 That's why they call it a spec thread. We get to spec all we want plus we get a shot at a  free prize.

LOL

I wish BTC would drop like LTC difficulty.  Thought some in here might find intresting just as miners don't mean to go to off topic.

But:

Litecoin Difficulty:    40,766
Estimated Next Difficulty:    35,077 (-13.95%)
Adjust time:    After 24 Blocks, About 1.3 hours

LTC to be losing around 14 percent hash.  I just hope it's not hosting/data centers switching to BTC mining gear.

A small update from bitcoinwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,427,554,951
Estimated Next Difficulty:    46,640,444,220 (-1.66%)
Adjust time:    After 337 Blocks, About 2.4 days
Hashrate(?):    331,044,027 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 10.3 minutes
3 blocks: 30.8 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
   
Updated:    10:25 (4.2 minutes ago)

Looks like it's almost certain to be a difficulty decrease this time around.

The spreadsheet is saying -1.75%... come on, just .. need .. .01 more % ... :D

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=204080645

reads (-1.72%)

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  reads (-1.76%)


328 blocks to go

price is 255 to 262 usd


No one is really pushing truly new more efficient gear.

So we kind of stay in a stable clam area for the time being.

Interesting time in mining.  It looks like we lose around the difficulty we gained on Mar 8th.

I just hope BTC goes back to 300's in a reasonable timeframe.

I still think the big guys are holding back from dropping 3 or 4 million on a new chip super farm.

Basically Bitfury made a lot of money and then shut down gear.
While they can make a .25 watt /gh machine
I think they are afraid to commit the 3-6 million need to make a 20-40ph farm at the current btc price level.

This is a good thing. I am hoping for 11-18 months between gear.

the s-1 was nov-dec 2013----------------------------- 2 watt gear
the s-3 was june- july 2014--------------------------- 0.8 watt gear
the s-5 was nov-dec   2014--------------------------- 0.5 watt gear

the s-6 or  s-7 has been mentioned for  later then june 2015 I read this  here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=902305.msg10826237#msg10826237


So say the s-6 comes out in July and is 0.38 or 0.4 watt gear
Then in sept the s-7 comes out at .3 watts
We are seeing a mature asic industry unfold.

This reminds me of the intel cpu's once sandy bridge arrived pc's are so good  the next two gen's pushed us into little mini pc's
Anyone with an i7 2600 cpu in a desktop has no need for an i7 4790 desktop.(90% true not 100%)

So to drive sales the pc industry is pushing tablets and mobile gear over desktops.

So if you have a .4 watt asic replace a .5 watt asic  what is your gain?
I do wonder how this plays out.

 I would not mind rocket to the moon on btc to 2000usd. It would wake everyone  up.

 I think we wander around in the 200-300 price slot and in the 44-49 diff range for months to come. I can live with that.

Well said Philip like always.

Im pretty sure right now the company are waiting to see the next 2 or 3 difficulty jump to see if they want to invest more or not.
I will be more than happy if we can stay between 44 and 49. That will give us a break and use our miner a little bit more.
The last 2 years was a race to buy, mine, sell the newest miners.

As for the price, if we stay at this diff, I think we could see a stable grown. Less fluctuation will also help people to get in Bitcoin.

Will see but right now, Im happy with the -1%  ;D

I  would agree on waiting on next gen gear with the "big boys".  It will be intresting once birfury, bitmain, and SP have some new chips what happens.

I agree, and in fact difficulty began to plateau even before the dramatic price drops in October and January. It really started in July, when double-digit increases stopped being the norm. There were exceptions when SP, Bitmain, or AM made some big deliveries, but other than that we've been pretty much flat.

And I doubt that there's much in the pipeline right now. SP has hinted at a new gen of chips, but their mantra is to be patient. It looks like Bitmain won't release a new chip until 3Q at the earliest, and AM from what I can tell is done or close to it. Unless there's a dramatic price increase, the days of double-digit difficulty increases are pretty much over. It would take over 33 Ph/s to be added to the network during the next difficulty period for a 10% increase.

Moreover, and I've been saying this for a while now, there's a finite supply of "cheap" electricity. There's a reason electricity costs what it does in most populated places. There's demand for it. As big farms move to remote locations for cheap power, the demand and cost will eventually go up as well. That's how markets tend to work.

That said, it's a good time for smaller miners, especially if the price recovers near-term. If we move back up to $500 by the summer, difficulty will be slow to catch up. It takes time to manufacture, and right now I don't think there's all that much in the pipeline. So if the price increases, difficulty will lag by at least a month or two.

The day is almost over:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,427,554,951
Estimated Next Difficulty:    46,569,405,256 (-1.81%)
Adjust time:    After 265 Blocks, About 1.9 days

Price at around 260

C'mon -1.51-1.75..   ;)

I think it will be great for people like me who mine as a hobby, we can pick up the older gear at way reduced costs.  Probably at that point you won't be able to give an S1 away, an S3 will be in the S1 price range, and S5 half of what they are today.  Makes that more efficient gear much more affordable to someone not looking to turn a profit.

Looks like if I want to win this round I better restart that 10PH that's been sitting cold for the last few weeks. Gotta be careful though since I don't want to overshoot....  :)

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,427,554,951
Estimated Next Difficulty:    46,846,395,019 (-1.23%)
Adjust time:    After 210 Blocks, About 1.5 days

Price seems steady around 260 right now. 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=204080645

is at (-1.50%)

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

is at  (-0.98%)

171 blocks to go

btc = 260usd

my -1.11% is in real contention

I'd say between 0 and -1%, but I'm always wrong so whoever is on either site of this interval has a good chance.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=204080645

is at (-3.36%) falling like a rock!!

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

is at  (-1.13%)

127 blocks to go

btc = 260usd

we are 66 blocks behind the pace


1889 instead of 1955.  we may have a carry over. frankly a -3.36% drop would be very welcome

We have had a number of nearly 1 hour blocks today, this is probably what is causing this, plus the fact that the last several days have seen much fewer blocks then we should have.

Something is up with the spreadsheet. Getting an Cannot divide by 0 error. Either way.

Less than 100 blocks to go !!!!!!!!!!

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (-1.93%)  price is around 260


Bitcoin Difficulty:   47,427,554,951
Estimated Next Difficulty:   46,511,198,252 (-1.93%)
Adjust time:   After 77 Blocks, About 13.3 hours
Hashrate(?):   326,299,841 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.3 minutes
3 blocks: 31.0 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   9:15 (2.5 minutes ago)


and the google chart is crashed.

but -2 or lower looks strong

70 blocks left  still near -2%

If we could get hot and rip a few quick ones my -1.11 % could win.

I do think we will be at -2.22%

I'd rather we stay exactly where we're at right now... ;)

I would love the -2+.   I'm hoping price slowly goes back up.

31 blocks to go



https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=204080645
(-2.03%)

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (-1.62%)


Bitcoin Difficulty:   47,427,554,951
Estimated Next Difficulty:   46,657,567,871 (-1.62%)
Adjust time:   After 31 Blocks, About 5.3 hours-------->>  31 to go
Hashrate(?):   328,086,086 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.3 minutes
3 blocks: 30.9 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   16:20 (5.3 minutes ago)

11 blocks to go



https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=204080645
(-1.66%)

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (-1.47%)


my -1.11% is alive , but not that close


TheAnalogKid -1.76% to -2.00%
thedreamer -1.51% to -1.75%
alh -1.26% to -1.50%
philipma1957  -1.01% to  -1.25%

I'm almost rooting against you because of what you promised to that serious dude :)

BTW, when you start a new thread could you please post a link to the rules like this: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=982118.msg10707126#msg10707126

And set the deadline to 2:00 AM UTC March 29.

I'm heading out for a few hours and probably won't be around when the new thread shows up. I'll pay the winner as soon as I get back.

Hopefully we can get really lucky and get a negative next difficulty aswell.  Been since December since we got to negative two difficulty changes in a ro.

Congrats alh!  That was borderline!!  :D

See you all on the next thread!  :)

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (-1.50%)   look like alh wins.

once alh gives a btc addy and suchmoon pays it off I will lock this thread.

new thread here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=999830.0




https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (-1.50%)

Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate


Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645     -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s




Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941   5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014   18,736,441,558   8.08%   134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014   17,336,316,979   3.08%   124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s
Jun 18 2014   13,462,580,115   14.51%   96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014   11,756,551,917   12.44%   84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014   10,455,720,138   18.10%   74,844,960 GH/s
May 12 2014   8,853,416,309   10.66%   63,375,223 GH/s
Apr 29 2014   8,000,872,136   14.64%   57,272,474 GH/s
Apr 17 2014   6,978,842,650   14.04%   49,956,502 GH/s
Apr 05 2014   6,119,726,089   22.23%   43,806,706 GH/s
Mar 24 2014   5,006,860,589   17.80%   35,840,504 GH/s
Mar 13 2014   4,250,217,920   11.39%   30,424,245 GH/s
Feb 28 2014   3,815,723,799   21.92%   27,314,015 GH/s
Feb 17 2014   3,129,573,175   19.39%   22,402,357 GH/s
Feb 05 2014   2,621,404,453   19.49%   18,764,744 GH/s
Jan 24 2014   2,193,847,870   22.59%   15,704,175 GH/s
Jan 13 2014   1,789,546,951   26.16%   12,810,076 GH/s
Jan 02 2014   1,418,481,395   20.12%   10,153,885 GH/s
Dec 21 2013   1,180,923,195   30.01%   8,453,378 GH/s
Dec 10 2013   908,350,862   28.41%   6,502,229 GH/s
Nov 29 2013   707,408,283   16.07%   5,063,826 GH/s
Nov 17 2013   609,482,680   19.29%   4,362,847 GH/s
Nov 05 2013   510,929,738   30.70%   3,657,378 GH/s
Oct 26 2013   390,928,788   46.02%   2,798,377 GH/s
Oct 16 2013   267,731,249   41.45%   1,916,495 GH/s
Oct 06 2013   189,281,249   27.19%   1,354,928 GH/s
Sep 25 2013   148,819,200   32.13%   1,065,289 GH/s
Sep 14 2013   112,628,549   29.56%   806,227 GH/s
Sep 04 2013   86,933,018   32.22%   622,291 GH/s
Aug 24 2013   65,750,060   29.40%   470,657 GH/s
Aug 13 2013   50,810,339   35.88%   363,715 GH/s
© 2013-2014 BitcoinWisdom.com

Congratulations alh!

Let me know your address please.

I am just glad the difficulty didn't increase. Don't mind that its only -2%

I remember the +20% days and the huge profit losses.

Congrats.. But maaan... I was 0.01% off.  :D

Yeah, this was as close as it gets.

1DtWBQyiaWyRYRofyPjmRNCpBqWUScqHRc is my wallet address.

I'd like to thank the Academy for this award, and suchmoon in particular!   :)

Here you go. Thank you for participating!

https://blockchain.info/tx/d3d2d1497ed1e4902305ce73a5d5940a534d117ae52552768e3bdfc8418d64cd

well the diff follow the price, it can't increase if we remain stable, as soon as the price will rise the diff will rise too

with a low diff there is a better chance at least for small pools to join

we are paid off so I am locking this one up.
New thread is here.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=999830.0;all

bump to order by time

too tired to do this correctly will stop for now