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racerguy
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August 25, 2012, 09:12:08 AM |
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Eskimobob, wealth isn't however much of currency N you hold, it's how much real stuff you can buy with currency N. If you believe wealth is whatever some numbers on a computer somewhere says instead of the amount of real stuff you have bankers are gonna own your ass bitcoin or no bitcoin.
I do not recall arguing against it. Buy miningturds (fixed Mh/s perpetual "bonds") and it's guaranteed, that every month you can buy less crap with your coin (what ever currency) if you cash in your "investment". If some of you still think that miningturds are a good investment, please use simple calculations and actual data from GLBSE to confirm, what so many have told in this thread - your dividends will not cover your loss of principal even if BTC:USD price improves over time. You are better off sitting in BTC. How hard is it to understand this? If you have difficulty understanding 1+1-3=-1, please go play somewhere else  Yes it's possible just holding btc could be more profitable(and it has been over the last few months), but it's also more risky because if the price falls by 50% your wealth falls by 50% where as holding mining bonds you would be better protected in such a situation. Basically the reason you think mining bonds are turds is because you could put your wealth into something riskier and potentially profit even more - well duh but you're forgetting you could also lose a lot more if things go south too. |
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There are several different types of Bitcoin clients. The most secure are full nodes like Bitcoin Core, but full nodes are more resource-heavy, and they must do a lengthy initial syncing process. As a result, lightweight clients with somewhat less security are commonly used.
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P4man
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August 25, 2012, 09:15:16 AM |
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Yes it's possible just holding btc could be more profitable(and it has been over the last few months), but it's also more risky because if the price falls by 50% your wealth falls by 50% where as holding mining bonds you would be better protected in such a situation. Basically the reason you think mining bonds are turds is because you could put your wealth into something riskier and potentially profit even more - well duh but you're forgetting you could also lose a lot more if things go south too.
The issue with those bonds is that they will lose value even if BTC price goes up. |
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misterbigg
Legendary
 Offline
Activity: 1064
Merit: 1001
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August 25, 2012, 02:43:47 PM |
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It's highly profitable even with the dividend returns likely lowering over time. Hydro bonds has been paying out almost 2.5% weekly... I must say this EskimoBob. You are the most annoying TROLL I have seen on this forum. So...  And you're saying HYDRO.BONDS is profitable? I suppose if you only bought 13 shares. Any more than that, and you'd have no buyers. Unless you want to sell at 0.001BTC |
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Bitcoin Oz
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August 25, 2012, 02:47:11 PM |
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It's highly profitable even with the dividend returns likely lowering over time. Hydro bonds has been paying out almost 2.5% weekly... I must say this EskimoBob. You are the most annoying TROLL I have seen on this forum. So... And you're saying HYDRO.BONDS is profitable? I suppose if you only bought 13 shares. Any more than that, and you'd have no buyers. Unless you want to sell at 0.001BTC There is no escape..... |
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cuz0882
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August 25, 2012, 06:02:00 PM |
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It's highly profitable even with the dividend returns likely lowering over time. Hydro bonds has been paying out almost 2.5% weekly... I must say this EskimoBob. You are the most annoying TROLL I have seen on this forum. So... And you're saying HYDRO.BONDS is profitable? I suppose if you only bought 13 shares. Any more than that, and you'd have no buyers. Unless you want to sell at 0.001BTC There is no escape..... More then that have sold this morning, and it wasn't because anyone lowered the price to fill a bid order. Saying you can only sell x amount, because x = bid orders is pretty ignorant. |
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EskimoBob (OP)
Legendary
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Activity: 910
Merit: 1000
Quality Printing Services by Federal Reserve Bank
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August 25, 2012, 07:15:30 PM |
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cuz0882, you keep calling me troll. I like to know, what exactly is your problem? If you do not mind, pleas send me a PM and stop whining here. Lest look at the HYDRO coupon payments date payment change form previous
2012-06-24 18:21 0.04250000
2012-07-01 08:42 0.04142857 -2.52%
2012-07-08 08:24 0.04034090 -2.63%
2012-07-15 07:56 0.04019607 -0.36%
2012-07-22 19:21 0.03833992 -4.62%
2012-07-29 04:49 0.03771493 -1.63%
2012-08-05 16:00 0.03547034 -5.95%
2012-08-12 08:27 0.03457760 -2.52%
2012-08-20 04:01 0.03214346 -7.04%
Total: 0.34271179 Your "bond" holders are in green, if they this simple calculation returns a positive number: 'sale price'-'price bought'+'coupon payment received' If they bought those at IPO, they are fine unless the price drops below 1.73-0.34271179= 1.38728821. This is what I see at the moment in GLBSE (bid): QUANTITY PRICE
3 1.4601
5 1.46
10 1.45
1000 0.001
1000 0.0001
18 shares and that is it. There is no liquidity. And this is bad news for any investment. On August 06 you made the announcement: I have made a update regarding the ASIC announcement. I set the bond price at 1.73 btc.
Is there something unclear about the announcement that would lead to uncertainty or are these currently undervalued compared to GIGAMINING or BITBONDS? GIGAMINING - 1.13 - .226 BITBONDS - 0.45 - .214 HYDRO.BONDS - 1.335 - .1335 This had a positive effect to https://glbse.com/asset/view/HYDRO.BONDS price and whopping 347 BTC worth of trades (close to 3 weeks) helped the "bond" out of its all time low of 1.24. As of today, only 18 BTC worth of trades can send the bond back to "not so funny" price range. DO not fool yourself, your bond will lose value as difficulty rises because the damn Mh/s can produce less and less bitcoins. I am not saying, that mining is not profitable to you, I am saying, perpetual miningturds are a guaranteed to be losers from day one. If the difficulty trend changes, things will get better but as of now, I see no reason for this to happen. If you like to call someone a troll, go take a peek at the mirror. |
While reading what I wrote, use the most friendliest and relaxing voice in your head.
BTW, Things in BTC bubble universes are getting ugly....
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bitcoinbear
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August 26, 2012, 12:22:29 AM |
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Yes it's possible just holding btc could be more profitable(and it has been over the last few months), but it's also more risky because if the price falls by 50% your wealth falls by 50% where as holding mining bonds you would be better protected in such a situation. Basically the reason you think mining bonds are turds is because you could put your wealth into something riskier and potentially profit even more - well duh but you're forgetting you could also lose a lot more if things go south too.
The issue with those bonds is that they will lose value even if BTC price goes up. The issue with those bonds is that they will also lose value even if BTC price goes down. |
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cuz0882
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August 26, 2012, 02:08:21 AM |
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cuz0882, you keep calling me troll. I like to know, what exactly is your problem? If you do not mind, pleas send me a PM and stop whining here. Lest look at the HYDRO coupon payments date payment change form previous
2012-06-24 18:21 0.04250000
2012-07-01 08:42 0.04142857 -2.52%
2012-07-08 08:24 0.04034090 -2.63%
2012-07-15 07:56 0.04019607 -0.36%
2012-07-22 19:21 0.03833992 -4.62%
2012-07-29 04:49 0.03771493 -1.63%
2012-08-05 16:00 0.03547034 -5.95%
2012-08-12 08:27 0.03457760 -2.52%
2012-08-20 04:01 0.03214346 -7.04%
Total: 0.34271179 Your "bond" holders are in green, if they this simple calculation returns a positive number: 'sale price'-'price bought'+'coupon payment received' If they bought those at IPO, they are fine unless the price drops below 1.73-0.34271179= 1.38728821. This is what I see at the moment in GLBSE (bid): QUANTITY PRICE
3 1.4601
5 1.46
10 1.45
1000 0.001
1000 0.0001
18 shares and that is it. There is no liquidity. And this is bad news for any investment. On August 06 you made the announcement: I have made a update regarding the ASIC announcement. I set the bond price at 1.73 btc.
Is there something unclear about the announcement that would lead to uncertainty or are these currently undervalued compared to GIGAMINING or BITBONDS? GIGAMINING - 1.13 - .226 BITBONDS - 0.45 - .214 HYDRO.BONDS - 1.335 - .1335 This had a positive effect to https://glbse.com/asset/view/HYDRO.BONDS price and whopping 347 BTC worth of trades (close to 3 weeks) helped the "bond" out of its all time low of 1.24. As of today, only 18 BTC worth of trades can send the bond back to "not so funny" price range. DO not fool yourself, your bond will lose value as difficulty rises because the damn Mh/s can produce less and less bitcoins. I am not saying, that mining is not profitable to you, I am saying, perpetual miningturds are a guaranteed to be losers from day one. If the difficulty trend changes, things will get better but as of now, I see no reason for this to happen. If you like to call someone a troll, go take a peek at the mirror. I'm not going to explain it all again. The bonds dollar value is what matters. You are clearly to ignorant to even read the posts on here. If you did, you would have know I posted that 3 weeks. Your head in the sand views are no revelation to me. Why you think difficulty and btc price of the bond are the go to calculations or 18 btc is going to hurt anything is beyond me. I don't even want to know how you draw these narrow minded conclusions. |
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Bitcoin Oz
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August 26, 2012, 02:22:53 AM |
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cuz0882, you keep calling me troll. I like to know, what exactly is your problem? If you do not mind, pleas send me a PM and stop whining here. Lest look at the HYDRO coupon payments date payment change form previous
2012-06-24 18:21 0.04250000
2012-07-01 08:42 0.04142857 -2.52%
2012-07-08 08:24 0.04034090 -2.63%
2012-07-15 07:56 0.04019607 -0.36%
2012-07-22 19:21 0.03833992 -4.62%
2012-07-29 04:49 0.03771493 -1.63%
2012-08-05 16:00 0.03547034 -5.95%
2012-08-12 08:27 0.03457760 -2.52%
2012-08-20 04:01 0.03214346 -7.04%
Total: 0.34271179 Your "bond" holders are in green, if they this simple calculation returns a positive number: 'sale price'-'price bought'+'coupon payment received' If they bought those at IPO, they are fine unless the price drops below 1.73-0.34271179= 1.38728821. This is what I see at the moment in GLBSE (bid): QUANTITY PRICE
3 1.4601
5 1.46
10 1.45
1000 0.001
1000 0.0001
18 shares and that is it. There is no liquidity. And this is bad news for any investment. On August 06 you made the announcement: I have made a update regarding the ASIC announcement. I set the bond price at 1.73 btc.
Is there something unclear about the announcement that would lead to uncertainty or are these currently undervalued compared to GIGAMINING or BITBONDS? GIGAMINING - 1.13 - .226 BITBONDS - 0.45 - .214 HYDRO.BONDS - 1.335 - .1335 This had a positive effect to https://glbse.com/asset/view/HYDRO.BONDS price and whopping 347 BTC worth of trades (close to 3 weeks) helped the "bond" out of its all time low of 1.24. As of today, only 18 BTC worth of trades can send the bond back to "not so funny" price range. DO not fool yourself, your bond will lose value as difficulty rises because the damn Mh/s can produce less and less bitcoins. I am not saying, that mining is not profitable to you, I am saying, perpetual miningturds are a guaranteed to be losers from day one. If the difficulty trend changes, things will get better but as of now, I see no reason for this to happen. If you like to call someone a troll, go take a peek at the mirror. I'm not going to explain it all again. The bonds dollar value is what matters. You are clearly to ignorant to even read the posts on here. If you did, you would have know I posted that 3 weeks. Your head in the sand views are no revelation to me. Why you think difficulty and btc price of the bond are the go to calculations or 18 btc is going to hurt anything is beyond me. I don't even want to know how you draw these narrow minded conclusions. No one gives a fuck about the "dollar value" since its all denominated in BTC and youre not listed on a USD stock exchange. |
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cuz0882
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August 26, 2012, 02:50:27 AM |
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No one gives a fuck about the "dollar value" since its all denominated in BTC and youre not listed on a USD stock exchange.
Go read the earlier posts, its pretty well explained. Even if we traded them in dollars they would not be worth the same amount of dollars when the value of the dollar changed. You only benefit and lose from those changes if you invested in dollars. Bonds are invested in equipment, not a currency. So logically its not going to follow those changes in value. Go take a valium or somthing. |
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odolvlobo
Legendary
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Activity: 4298
Merit: 3214
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August 26, 2012, 05:33:59 AM |
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Here is my position. - It is claimed that many (if not most) fixed Mh/s bonds have dropped in value more than the dividends that have been paid. EskimoBob says that these are the worst investments ever, but that is an exaggeration. Really, it means that they are bad investments because you would have made more money (in dollars or BTC) by just holding the BTC instead of buying the bonds.
This is an important point because even if the value of BTC goes through the roof, if the total value of the bond (price + dividends) drops then it would be better to just hold the BTC instead of buying the bond. In this case, it doesn't matter if the value is in BTC or dollars.
- It is claimed that the BTC value of bonds fixed to a constant Mh/s will decline as the difficulty rises. This is only correct if you accept certain assumptions because the value of a Mh/s bond is dependent on supply and demand, and not difficulty. So, for EskimoBob's point to be correct, you must accept the assumption that an increase in difficulty goes along with a decrease in demand or an increase in supply.
For example, when the ASICs come out, the dividend for 1 Mh/s bond will drop significantly. But if there is not an increase in fixed Mh/s bonds (supply is constant) and there are no alternatives (demand is constant), then the value of the bonds will remain the same because there is nothing else to invest in. It is simple supply and demand.
However, we know that this is not the case because many of the miners are upgrading the bonds when the ASICs come out. The amount of fixed-Mh/s bonds is going to go up by a factor of 10-20. That means that the value 1 Mh/s bond will probably drop to about 5%-10% of its current value. Here we see that the value of a fixed Mh/s bond drops not because the difficulty rises, but because the supply of the bonds increases.
Even if we ignore the coming ASICs for now, it is pretty safe to assume that a rising difficulty is due to more miners and these miners are selling more bonds. In this case the value of the bonds fall not because of the rising difficulty, but again because of the increase in the supply of bonds.
- Finally, the value of equipment. If a company's shares are denominated in BTC, then the value of its equipment should also be denominated in BTC (or in dollars with a separate line for currency adjustments). This makes sense because investors need to be able to directly compare the value of a company to the value of its shares. Now, if the value of the equipment is constant in dollar terms, then it will vary in BTC terms. There is no way to avoid this. If the value of BTC goes up, the value of the equipment must go down because if you sell the equipment, you get less BTC for it. This is important for doing the accounting correctly. So, if the value of the company is determined by the value of the equipment and the value of BTC goes up, then the value of the company (in BTC) will go down. If the value goes down more than the dividends, the company is a "bad" investment (regardless of its dollar value) because you would have done better by holding the BTC instead of buying shares in the company.
I think all of this is pretty straightforward and indisputable. If you want to make other assumptions or if you don't mind if the value of your investment is less than the value of the BTC used to buy the investment (as long as the value has gone up in dollar terms), then that is your choice. No one gives a fuck about the "dollar value" since its all denominated in BTC and youre not listed on a USD stock exchange.
Unfortunately, a statement like this means that no further rational discussion is possible. |
Join an anti-signature campaign: Click ignore on the members of signature campaigns.
PGP Fingerprint: 6B6BC26599EC24EF7E29A405EAF050539D0B2925 Signing address: 13GAVJo8YaAuenj6keiEykwxWUZ7jMoSLt
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bitlane
Internet detective
Sr. Member
Offline
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
I heart thebaron
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August 31, 2012, 07:16:18 PM |
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This thread is great work. Please post a donation address.
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P4man
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August 31, 2012, 08:03:36 PM |
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Let me put my money where my mouth is. Anyone owning these bonds, lend them to me so I can short them. I will pay you all dividends +10% bonus. Minimum duration 3 months, after that Im free to return them whenever I want, or you want. PM me when interested.
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misterbigg
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1064
Merit: 1001
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August 31, 2012, 08:08:05 PM |
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Let me put my money where my mouth is. Anyone owning these bonds, lend them to me so I can short them. I will pay you all dividends +10% bonus. Minimum duration 3 months, after that Im free to return them whenever I want, or you want. PM me when interested.
Wow...I'd like some of that action. Can you set up a GLBSE security so that we can all profit? |
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P4man
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August 31, 2012, 08:19:02 PM |
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I intended to start something like that here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=88496.0Imagine my profits if I had done it back then, but Brendio promised an easier solution, that Ive yet to see materialize. And now, I dont think the new GLSBE rules would allow it. |
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EskimoBob (OP)
Legendary
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Activity: 910
Merit: 1000
Quality Printing Services by Federal Reserve Bank
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August 31, 2012, 08:25:17 PM |
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This thread is great work. Please post a donation address.
Interesting idea and thank you for all who have participated. 1C1gJABrGYdSGZ7wBcVWWcM8yraLuPc8m5 |
While reading what I wrote, use the most friendliest and relaxing voice in your head.
BTW, Things in BTC bubble universes are getting ugly....
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VeeMiner
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August 31, 2012, 08:35:32 PM |
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I must agree that buying a Mhash/s turd is a bad investment. But heck, let anyone invest in what they want...
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totaleclipseofthebank
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August 31, 2012, 09:29:12 PM |
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Net present value analyis relies on using a discount rate to model the present value of a flow of money. I was dicking around in excel to get some NPVs for an xMH/s perpetual (zero face value) mining bond. I am modeling these simply as a flow of ever-decreasing dividends. The difficulty increase rate (dividend decrease rate) is also an input. The mining rewards are modeled to halve after 18 weeks from today, and the NPV is then calculated at 1%, 2%, and 4% weekly discount rates over 2 years of projected dividends. Might be fun to play around with! http://www.filedropper.com/miningnpv |
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