Signal for Major Trend Reversal

[intighet]

I believe that the ask wall on bitstamp at $300 (now around 4500 btc) that can be graphically viewed at http://bitcointicker.co/ represents the major repellor i.e. the "long-term" trend.

If we can break through this with even volume and the above conjecture is correct, we may not see prices below $300 for at least an entire wave cycle. (scale of months)


Thoughts on this are welcome.

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[hdd3go]

An article published on Nasdaq also said that the fair value of Bitcoin is 370$ and 470$.

[ajareselde]

I hope you are right in longterm projection, however i placed my bet that we will have retrace to ~250-260$.
All this recent news flow is looking artificial to me, and i doubt it will pick up pace this moment, but i agree that will eventually.
Longterm investors will profit whenever they buy <500$, but if u like to gamble, your stake might increase for few %.

cheers

[dothebeats]

Long-term projection seems too difficult to speculate. I think we will still see some prices <$290 before gaining momentum for higher prices.

[Amph]

i think the bottom, is consolidated now, we won't see 200-230 anytime soon, we need to consolidate the next step, which appear to be 300

[Morecoin Freeman]

Good luck breaking trough that wall.

[MatTheCat]

I hope you are right in longterm projection, however i placed my bet that we will have retrace to ~250-260$.
All this recent news flow is looking artificial to me, and i doubt it will pick up pace this moment, but i agree that will eventually.
Longterm investors will profit whenever they buy <500$, but if u like to gamble, your stake might increase for few %.

I would suggest that perhaps $260 - $270 would be a likely retracement but I wouldn't try to tard it. Margins aren't worth it and Bitcoin is good until the upper $300s at least, with a likely market pop up into the $400s.

That is where my market sentiment lies at the moment and fuck the news. Nothing but cherry picked horseshit and by the time Coindesk does report anything significant to the Bitcoin Kool-Aid guzzling masses, you can bet your bottom dollar it is already priced in.

Edit: Another 'strange' but true fact, that despite the likes of Bitfinex now dwarfing Bitstamp in terms of volume, obviously when it comes to real liquidity Bitstamp is still the market leader with trades on Bitstamp being much more likely to represent capital flowing in and out of Bitcoin, other than tarders swishing coins backwards and forwards all day as is the case on Finex. This is why the market stopped at the large Bitstamp Ask Wall, and not for the first time has Stamp called a halt on a Bitcoin rally.

[oda.krell]

I hope you are right in longterm projection, however i placed my bet that we will have retrace to ~250-260$.
All this recent news flow is looking artificial to me, and i doubt it will pick up pace this moment, but i agree that will eventually.
Longterm investors will profit whenever they buy <500$, but if u like to gamble, your stake might increase for few %.

I would suggest that perhaps $260 - $270 would be a likely retracement but I wouldn't try to tard it. Margins aren't worth it and Bitcoin is good until the upper $300s at least, with a likely market pop up into the $400s.

That is where my market sentiment lies at the moment and fuck the news. Nothing but cherry picked horseshit and by the time Coindesk does report anything significant to the Bitcoin Kool-Aid guzzling masses, you can bet your bottom dollar it is already priced in.

Edit: Another 'strange' but true fact, that despite the likes of Bitfinex now dwarfing Bitstamp in terms of volume, obviously when it comes to real liquidity Bitstamp is still the market leader with trades on Bitstamp being much more likely to represent capital flowing in and out of Bitcoin, other than tarders swishing coins backwards and forwards all day as is the case on Finex. This is why the market stopped at the large Bitstamp Ask Wall, and not for the first time has Stamp called a halt on a Bitcoin rally.

Woah. What happened here? First time we agree on something

You know the reason. The one I've been regurgitating over and over like a broken record*... all other things being equal, non leveraged non-zero fee volume has more impact than leveraged zero fee volume.

Doesn't mean Finex or Chinese volume doesn't matter, obviously not. But it means, Finex matters despite OKC's or BTCChina's volume being higher by a factor of 2 or 3, and even Bitstamp matters, despite volume being 1/10 of the big Chinese exchanges.

"Matters", for a brief moment, that is. Don't think it'll change the course, just delay the arrival a bit

* Yes, I like my metaphors mixed, not stirred

[Brother Darkness]

An article published on Nasdaq also said that the fair value of Bitcoin is 370$ and 470$.

So which one is it? 370 or 470? I don't think there is any 'fair' price of bitcoin but obviously the market will dictate that.

[Q7]

If there are people willing to pay using fiat to acquire 50000btc, so what's up with the 4500 ask wall. It could have been easily breached. Rather than a trend reversal taking place, probably what we might see is some correction that cause the price to retrace to about 280 before it will start to resume the climb.

[BitCoinNutJob]

i think the bottom, is consolidated now, we won't see 200-230 anytime soon, we need to consolidate the next step, which appear to be 300

Agree we've now been in a bull market for 2 months, people wanting lower missed thier chance.

[intighet]

Many here assumed I was "forecasting" upwards action. I have done no such thing. The title of this thread refers to the hypothetical breach of $300.

With recent price action in mind, I must also warn that the repellor implies that the further we move downwards from the resistance at $300, that much less likely we shall see prices above that level.