What do you think will happen in the next 4 Months??!??

[elrodvoss]

I have been sitting and looking at how bitcoin has expanded in the course of the last 8 months and I have watched it grow and watch the bubble pop.  I have seen technology grow and the user base grow.  I have seen people embrace bitcoin and I have seen people take advantage of it and its users.


I know that there maybe a few dozen posts on this, but I wanted to get my 2 cents out there and see if someone can give me another perspective on my train of though.


So what does everyone thing what will happen in the next 4 months??

• We have the reward block coming soon, that will halve the coins per block from 50 to 25
• Butterfly Labs will be releasing their new system on or about Oct.
• With that new hardware, I believe that the difficulty will spike quickly.  Do you think it will increase Ten, Fifty, Hundred Fold or will casual users give up and make the difficulty go back down?
• Will the price of coins adjust higher to reflect the lower coins per block and this new difficulty

Do think think that bitcoin will hits its peak in the new year and fail or will it wane and then come back stronger?


-Elrodvoss

[casascius]

Last year, there were a few hackings and thefts and people said OMG sell now, they're not secure.  And the media considered it fireworks.

This year everyone realizes that hacking and theft only happens when precautions aren't taken.  Plus, paper wallets are easy to print, people realize to keep their bitcoins in "cold storage", and the occasional thefts don't even register as blips on the news anymore.

The five months of price stability and the media reporting that "Silk Road" is booming is making the world take notice that, if nothing else, Bitcoin functions as advertised.

[smoothie]

Last year, there were a few hackings and thefts and people said OMG sell now, they're not secure.

This year everyone realizes that hacking

...

[sunnankar]

This year everyone realizes that hacking and theft only happens when precautions aren't taken.  Plus, paper wallets are easy to print, people realize to keep their bitcoins in "cold storage", and the occasional thefts don't even register as blips on the news anymore.

This is a major problem. We need to lobby for legislation forming a Bitcoin oversight board and to protect people we need to form an FDIC for bitcoin owners so that moral hazard develops and increases inefficiency. All in the name of make work to create jobs.

[jimbobway]

This year everyone realizes that hacking and theft only happens when precautions aren't taken.  Plus, paper wallets are easy to print, people realize to keep their bitcoins in "cold storage", and the occasional thefts don't even register as blips on the news anymore.

This is a major problem. We need to lobby for legislation forming a Bitcoin oversight board and to protect people we need to form an FDIC for bitcoin owners so that moral hazard develops and increases inefficiency. All in the name of make work to create jobs.

coinbase is working on insuring bitcoin deposits at their site.

[Kupsi]

I don't think the block reward halving will make that big difference as many believes because the monetary inflation in percent has been decreasing all the time and is already down to 7% per quarter. The supply at the exchanges is much bigger than the daily mined coins so I believe the increasing demand for bitcoins is much more important than the reward halving.

Period   Totalt BTC     Increase in percent
Q1 2009   656250   
Q2 2009   1312500     100 %
Q3 2009   1968750     50 %
Q4 2009   2625000     33 %
Q1 2010   3281250     25 %
Q2 2010   3937500     20 %
Q3 2010   4593750     17 %
Q4 2010   5250000     14 %
Q1 2011   5906250     13 %
Q2 2011   6562500     11 %
Q3 2011   7218750     10 %
Q4 2011   7875000     9 %
Q1 2012   8531250     8 %
Q2 2012   9187500     8 %
Q3 2012   9843750     7 %
Q4 2012   10500000     7 %
Q1 2013   10828125     3 %
Q2 2013   11156250     3 %
Q3 2013   11484375     3 %
Q4 2013   11812500     3 %

[Stephen Gornick]

• Will the price of coins adjust higher to reflect the lower coins per block and this new difficulty

Do think think that bitcoin will hits its peak in the new year and fail or will it wane and then come back stronger?

Buy on the rumor, sell on the news.

If in December the block reward happens and there isn't a spike there could be some aggressive selling if the exchange rate starts to dip below these levels (at 2X the "stable" $5 range).

The metric to watch is how well bitcoin gains traction in its niches where it does well -- as a currency for online gambling, as a decent way for transferring money across borders, and yes -- as a currency used for "investing" in a new way, whether that be GLBSE cyber-equities or in a ponzi-like scheme.

Here's the daily diary for that metric:
 - http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular

What that chart doesn't show is what the value of the currency needs to be to support the economic activity for all these niches and other uses of bitcoin.  

It is entirely possible that 90% of the value comes from speculation and just 10% is actually needed to support the level of the economy that exists now.  So bitcoin's economic value today might be just $1.   So even if that economic activity goes up 3X, that brings the value only to $3, still well below today's $10.

The reason there is such speculation though is that if it is plausible that in a year there could be 3X current demand, could it be plausible a year after it would be 30X?   Or even later reach 300X (or more) versus current demand?   So there is a rational reason to explain fthe price premium each bitcoin carries today.

But nobody knows.  It is simply pure speculation.  But if you were to project out four months from now how many transactions each day occur and the average "output less change" for each transaction, then you could then make an educated guess about a price range that would likely be in the right ballpark.

[adamstgBit]

honestly i expect bitcoin to mature a hole lot in the few month.

next year or two or three, digital cash online will no long be vaperware, till will have been tried tested and true, it will begin its take over internet commerce. it will be recognized as a new type of global digital currency. new laws will be past.

things have changed
things are changing
things will change

bitcoin

[dissipate]

It's really hard to predict what will happen in the next 4 months, but in my opinion Bitcoin is still in a bootstrapping phase and will be there for a long time.

Bitcoin has 4 main uses right now (besides speculation) in this bootstrapping phase:

1. Gaming tokens. Bitcoins make for great online gaming tokens because of instant or near instant cash outs and the fact that they are borderless and greatly divisible. Poker alone could be a multi-billion dollar opportunity, but there are plenty of opportunities for other non-gambling games. http://bitcointerror.com has a really novel concept where you win Bitcoins for each in-game kill.

2. Black market/grey market sales. Like it or not Bitcoin is great for black market sales because of its anonymity (after tumbling) and the fact that there are no chargebacks.

3. International transactions. Bitcoin can be used as an intermediary medium of international exchange between countries that have capital export controls, or to avoid banks that have extremely high fees. In this regard, the Bitcoin exchanges of each fiat currency become international exchange intermediaries.

4. Long term wealth storage. Bitcoin costs nearly nothing to secure, store or transport and cannot be confiscated by governments. If one can handle the volatility, it can be used for long term wealth storage.

Unfortunately, I don't think online retail sales are there yet. The reason is not because of merchant problems. I think bit-pay and mtgox can probably provide merchants with enough tools to integrate bitcoin checkouts and allow them to mitigate risk by selling the coins immediately. The problem is on the consumer end. There isn't a huge incentive for consumers to acquire Bitcoins right now. The cost (or at least perceived cost) of acquiring them is going to be greater than the cost of just whipping out a credit card. Furthermore, holding bitcoins for any significant amount of time carries risk. A consumer would have to buy the bitcoins and get some kind of discount with the retailers to make it worth their while, and then spend them all rather quickly before they had a chance to drop in value.

Bitcoin is going to have to bootstrap from the rather menial niches it can worm its way into for a long time because the cost of acquiring Bitcoin and the volatility is not going away anytime soon.

[FreeMoney]

Taking "Bitcoin for economic activity" to mean buying coins, spending them and the recipient sells them right away this has a negligible effect on total demand the coins involved being 'demanded' for maybe hours or a day.

But merchants accepting coin has a huge effect once people come to realize that they'll be able to get what they want for coin making it safe and/or wise to hold coin at the ready.

Some people need to see this in the most direct way "SR has been open a long time and sells thing I need so I'm going to buy more coin this time to save the hassle for my next buy". Some are more in the middle, or saw this development earlier etc.

I'm on the extreme end of this spectrum. It works as a money, I think others will eventually figure this out and that doesn't depend on any particulars of the current market. I just get and save as many as I can. A dozen people doing this increases demand by more than 1000 occasional SR one time shot, quick turnover buyers.

I've carried something like 5 million bitcoin days. I'm a nerd, that's the area under my bitcoins held each day curve.

[ArticMine]

It's really hard to predict what will happen in the next 4 months, but in my opinion Bitcoin is still in a bootstrapping phase and will be there for a long time.

Bitcoin has 4 main uses right now (besides speculation) in this bootstrapping phase:

...

Unfortunately, I don't think online retail sales are there yet. The reason is not because of merchant problems. I think bit-pay and mtgox can probably provide merchants with enough tools to integrate bitcoin checkouts and allow them to mitigate risk by selling the coins immediately. The problem is on the consumer end. There isn't a huge incentive for consumers to acquire Bitcoins right now. The cost (or at least perceived cost) of acquiring them is going to be greater than the cost of just whipping out a credit card. Furthermore, holding bitcoins for any significant amount of time carries risk. A consumer would have to buy the bitcoins and get some kind of discount with the retailers to make it worth their while, and then spend them all rather quickly before they had a chance to drop in value.

Bitcoin is going to have to bootstrap from the rather menial niches it can worm its way into for a long time because the cost of acquiring Bitcoin and the volatility is not going away anytime soon.

This ignores that fact that many consumers cannot get a credit card or a debit card that works as a credit card. It is the same reason that cash is still around despite that efforts of the financial industry for the last two decades to eliminate it. For an online merchant accepting Bitcoin is not about changing the habits of existing customers. It is about getting an entirely new customer that before Bitcoin had no cost effective way to pay for goods or services online.

[molecular]

This year everyone realizes that hacking and theft only happens when precautions aren't taken.  Plus, paper wallets are easy to print, people realize to keep their bitcoins in "cold storage", and the occasional thefts don't even register as blips on the news anymore.

This is a major problem. We need to lobby for legislation forming a Bitcoin oversight board and to protect people we need to form an FDIC for bitcoin owners so that moral hazard develops and increases inefficiency. All in the name of make work to create jobs.

legislation? oversight board? wtf, no thanks. consumer choice!

[Akka]

I don't understand why I read everwhere that the userbase grows. Where do you get it from?

If I look at http://bitcoinstatus.rowit.co.uk/ it looks like the user base is still declining. Or do I read this wrong?

[dissipate]

It's really hard to predict what will happen in the next 4 months, but in my opinion Bitcoin is still in a bootstrapping phase and will be there for a long time.

Bitcoin has 4 main uses right now (besides speculation) in this bootstrapping phase:

...

Unfortunately, I don't think online retail sales are there yet. The reason is not because of merchant problems. I think bit-pay and mtgox can probably provide merchants with enough tools to integrate bitcoin checkouts and allow them to mitigate risk by selling the coins immediately. The problem is on the consumer end. There isn't a huge incentive for consumers to acquire Bitcoins right now. The cost (or at least perceived cost) of acquiring them is going to be greater than the cost of just whipping out a credit card. Furthermore, holding bitcoins for any significant amount of time carries risk. A consumer would have to buy the bitcoins and get some kind of discount with the retailers to make it worth their while, and then spend them all rather quickly before they had a chance to drop in value.

Bitcoin is going to have to bootstrap from the rather menial niches it can worm its way into for a long time because the cost of acquiring Bitcoin and the volatility is not going away anytime soon.

This ignores that fact that many consumers cannot get a credit card or a debit card that works as a credit card. It is the same reason that cash is still around despite that efforts of the financial industry for the last two decades to eliminate it. For an online merchant accepting Bitcoin is not about changing the habits of existing customers. It is about getting an entirely new customer that before Bitcoin had no cost effective way to pay for goods or services online.

That could be true to some extent, but how do those people mitigate the risk of holding Bitcoin? These people are going to be the ones least able to afford to lose money on something as risky as Bitcoin. A loss of a couple hundred dollars even could mean they wouldn't be able to pay their rent.

[drakahn]

I don't understand why I read everwhere that the userbase grows. Where do you get it from?

If I look at http://bitcoinstatus.rowit.co.uk/ it looks like the user base is still declining. Or do I read this wrong?

I'm pretty sure that is the number of full nodes running, as the blockchain grows more and more people are using online wallets or something else

[ArticMine]

It's really hard to predict what will happen in the next 4 months, but in my opinion Bitcoin is still in a bootstrapping phase and will be there for a long time.

Bitcoin has 4 main uses right now (besides speculation) in this bootstrapping phase:

...

Unfortunately, I don't think online retail sales are there yet. The reason is not because of merchant problems. I think bit-pay and mtgox can probably provide merchants with enough tools to integrate bitcoin checkouts and allow them to mitigate risk by selling the coins immediately. The problem is on the consumer end. There isn't a huge incentive for consumers to acquire Bitcoins right now. The cost (or at least perceived cost) of acquiring them is going to be greater than the cost of just whipping out a credit card. Furthermore, holding bitcoins for any significant amount of time carries risk. A consumer would have to buy the bitcoins and get some kind of discount with the retailers to make it worth their while, and then spend them all rather quickly before they had a chance to drop in value.

Bitcoin is going to have to bootstrap from the rather menial niches it can worm its way into for a long time because the cost of acquiring Bitcoin and the volatility is not going away anytime soon.

This ignores that fact that many consumers cannot get a credit card or a debit card that works as a credit card. It is the same reason that cash is still around despite that efforts of the financial industry for the last two decades to eliminate it. For an online merchant accepting Bitcoin is not about changing the habits of existing customers. It is about getting an entirely new customer that before Bitcoin had no cost effective way to pay for goods or services online.

That could be true to some extent, but how do those people mitigate the risk of holding Bitcoin? These people are going to be the ones least able to afford to lose money on something as risky as Bitcoin. A loss of a couple hundred dollars even could mean they wouldn't be able to pay their rent.

The cost of the alternatives is far higher. I have seen people on welfare pay $50 for a prepaid debit card in order to pay for a $20 item online. The balance then gets eaten by fees and charges. With Bitcoin the balance will likely appreciate over time. The group that will benefit the most from Bitcoin are the poor.

[ElectricMucus]

I don't understand why I read everwhere that the userbase grows. Where do you get it from?

If I look at http://bitcoinstatus.rowit.co.uk/ it looks like the user base is still declining. Or do I read this wrong?

I'm pretty sure that is the number of full nodes running, as the blockchain grows more and more people are using online wallets or something else

Online wallets (it's only really blockchain.info) cannot alone compensate for the decline, and nobody was able to tell me if electrum clients would show up or not or what their numbers are. There isn't 'something else' than that. Plus the decline started to manifest before those 2 came up.

Why is it so hard to accept that bitcoin is loosing excess userbase?

[dissipate]

The cost of the alternatives is far higher. I have seen people on welfare pay $50 for a prepaid debit card in order to pay for a $20 item online. The balance then gets eaten by fees and charges. With Bitcoin the balance will likely appreciate over time. The group that will benefit the most from Bitcoin are the poor.

It might appreciate over time but it might lose half it's value in one day. Suppose one of these poor people bought when Bitcoin was at $30, and then had their coins drop to $16 each the next day? I don't think they would be rushing to buy Bitcoin anytime soon after that.

[Kupsi]

I don't understand why I read everwhere that the userbase grows. Where do you get it from?

If I look at http://bitcoinstatus.rowit.co.uk/ it looks like the user base is still declining. Or do I read this wrong?

I'm pretty sure that is the number of full nodes running, as the blockchain grows more and more people are using online wallets or something else

Online wallets (it's only really blockchain.info) cannot alone compensate for the decline, and nobody was able to tell me if electrum clients would show up or not or what their numbers are. There isn't 'something else' than that. Plus the decline started to manifest before those 2 came up.

Why is it so hard to accept that bitcoin is loosing excess userbase?

Bitaddress.org was announced in September 2011

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=43496.0

[ArticMine]

The cost of the alternatives is far higher. I have seen people on welfare pay $50 for a prepaid debit card in order to pay for a $20 item online. The balance then gets eaten by fees and charges. With Bitcoin the balance will likely appreciate over time. The group that will benefit the most from Bitcoin are the poor.

It might appreciate over time but it might lose half it's value in one day. Suppose one of these poor people bought when Bitcoin was at $30, and then had their coins drop to $16 each the next day? I don't think they would be rushing to buy Bitcoin anytime soon after that.

If our poor person timed the market perfectly for the worst possible outcome and bought right at the top at $31.89 and then absorbed the 50% market risk, they are still ahead of my example of using a pre-paid debit card as they would have $5 worth of BTC left. So even in the worst possible scenario with perfect negative market timing they are still ahead using Bitcoin.