Speculate About the years 2013-2016

[smoothie]

Last baby boomers start claiming their entitlements through the U.S. gov't.

Financial markets, Equities, Gold, and Silver crash at least 25% each.

Unemployment/underemployment reaches 40%

Short-term deflation is in the air as there is a run on fiat currencies.

Central banks print in an effort to stop deflation.

Helicopter Ben overreacts and ends up inflating the USD into oblivion.

Investors dump their dollars to get real tangible goods (gold, silver, real estate, commodities).

Gold and silver prices skyrocket and this produces a mass shortage of physical metal.

Bitcoin prices, given its unregulated nature, have skyrocketed up to $100, down to $30, up to $500, down to $150, and have gone upwards of $1000 each.

...

[ianspain]

Last baby boomers start claiming their entitlements through the U.S. gov't.



Bitcoin prices, given its unregulated nature, have skyrocketed up to $100, down to $30, up to $500, down to $150, and have gone upwards of $1000 each.

...

that would be good

[Buffer Overflow]

Lots of money to be made then. 

[jcpham]

BTC is certainly over9000 USD in 2013.

[smoothie]

BTC is certainly over9000 USD in 2013.

Wow that's a pretty bold prediction...

Care to elaborate more?

[jcpham]

BTC is certainly over9000 USD in 2013.

Wow that's a pretty bold prediction...

Care to elaborate more?

predictinator is both bold and zesty.

[smoothie]

BTC is certainly over9000 USD in 2013.

Wow that's a pretty bold prediction...

Care to elaborate more?

predictinator is both bold and zesty.

I guess my 50 bitcoins will be worth much more than $550 then huh 

[Snapman]

You guys need to remember to add that as the value of the dollar goes down, your transition from btc--->usd will yield less and less as the collapse continues. Also with inflation, its only a matter of time before the loaf of bread at the corner store costs 20 bux, or 2 btc (today value).

[smoothie]

You guys need to remember to add that as the value of the dollar goes down, your transition from btc--->usd will yield less and less as the collapse continues. Also with inflation, its only a matter of time before the loaf of bread at the corner store costs 20 bux, or 2 btc (today value).

Yes you are right. But the change in value is not instant. Inflation takes time given how the system is manipulated and the masses are still in their beer induced coma's watching football.

[Oinsane1]

lots of money to be made in adult diapers

[BrannigansLaw]

What would we value bitcoin on if the dollar was to be made redundant like the Zimbabwe dollar? Or all currencies and crypto currency was to take over.

P.s. Zimbabwe ($1 = 642,371,437,695, 221,000)

[ElectricMucus]

I am an optimist.

• The Open Source Model is used by 10-38% of businesses contributing the majority of the GDP.
• 5% of households now have decentralized internet access.
• At least 3 counties have exited the European Union and have created their Money system backed by real assets
• Sovereign groups are forming the first naive implementation of globally decentralized republics
• Small towns in the USA are using their own demurrage based local currencies, tolerated by the regional governments

I don't rally care about the rest. 

[Chaz]

Here is my Bitcoin 2016 prediction, give or take a few bubbles 

[HDSolar]

Here is my Bitcoin 2016 prediction, give or take a few bubbles 

Nice chart, now if you could add something to back up the line I would love it more.  Not to beat you up but I hate when people make charts and then their is nothing to explain why the chart is doing what it is doing.  You must be an economist but finance people deal with facts and numbers and not graphs and theories.  They may bend the numbers or fake the numbers but at least you can see how they got there where as economist hid behind "all things being equal".  Hell that one statement alone allowed me to ace my econ classes with allot of words in front of it, easy.

As I tell all economist, love the idea but show me the facts and please prove me wrong because otherwise this is a fun line to look at on graph paper.

[HDSolar]

Here is my Bitcoin 2016 prediction, give or take a few bubbles 

Nice chart, now if you could add something to back up the line I would love it more.  Not to beat you up but I hate when people make charts and then their is nothing to explain why the chart is doing what it is doing.  You must be an economist but finance people deal with facts and numbers and not graphs and theories.  They may bend the numbers or fake the numbers but at least you can see how they got there where as economist hid behind "all things being equal".  Hell that one statement alone allowed me to ace my econ classes with allot of words in front of it, easy.

As I tell all economist, love the idea but show me the facts and please prove me wrong because otherwise this is a fun line to look at on graph paper.

Iit is a "prediction" but even when you can back it up with numbers it could still mean nothing, look at the Aztec calendar it has predicted every day since its inception with 100% accuracy and then S#!? for 2013.
I like the prediction is a little accelerated for my grasp.  I think the issue is you want to believe it and need more substance.   

So your saying the Aztec calendar is not true, crap I guess this bunker I am in was a waste.   
Yes I want to believe but without something more then a line it is just art, I would like to believe in unicorns and its possible because of horses and Narwals.  They may not be real but see I presented something that could make them real and I could even make a picture happen with more pictures supporting the first picture.  That is what I would like and yes you are right.

[adamstgBit]

The currency of many countries will start to default, US included.
Banks offer a "Global currency" deal that no one can refuse.
The global currency is introduced and soon after a global government. everyone's paper money / politicians  are the  same.
The Bank has successfully taken over the world.
The government start issuing new laws and basic human rights start to get squashed.
The people in some parts of the world want to separate from this new Global Government.
These people are quickly "taken care of"
Everyone on the planet now fears authority, and start to conform to the way they want us to live.
Life is easy so long as you obey.

A really big asteroid hits the planet and everyone dies in a matter of minutes.


Cool story eh?  

[justusranvier]

Last baby boomers start claiming their entitlements through the U.S. gov't.

Financial markets, Equities, Gold, and Silver crash at least 25% each.

Unemployment/underemployment reaches 40%

Short-term deflation is in the air as there is a run on fiat currencies.

Central banks print in an effort to stop deflation.

Helicopter Ben overreacts and ends up inflating the USD into oblivion.

Investors dump their dollars to get real tangible goods (gold, silver, real estate, commodities).

Gold and silver prices skyrocket and this produces a mass shortage of physical metal.

Bitcoin prices, given its unregulated nature, have skyrocketed up to $100, down to $30, up to $500, down to $150, and have gone upwards of $1000 each.

...

Bitcoin is priced higher than its use for trade would suggest because a lot of people have disposable income they can afford to divert towards speculation.
In times of severe economic stress less of those people will exist; many people will be forced to cash out their Bitcoin holdings to pay bills and a lot more people won't be able to buy and hold Bitcoins even if they want to because they are living paycheck to paycheck.

In that case the exchange rate of Bitcoin (and gold) corrects downward.

If you want to protect the exchange rate of your bitcoins do whatever you can to encourage its adoption by businesses. Get trade flowing between people who would otherwise be unable to transact.

[Chaz]

Nice chart, now if you could add something to back up the line I would love it more.  Not to beat you up but I hate when people make charts and then their is nothing to explain why the chart is doing what it is doing.  You must be an economist but finance people deal with facts and numbers and not graphs and theories.  They may bend the numbers or fake the numbers but at least you can see how they got there where as economist hid behind "all things being equal".  Hell that one statement alone allowed me to ace my econ classes with allot of words in front of it, easy.

As I tell all economist, love the idea but show me the facts and please prove me wrong because otherwise this is a fun line to look at on graph paper.

I'm no economist lol, I'm just trying to see how fast bitcoin is growing and what we can realistically expect for the future.  I've based the data on known low prices.  Current growth rate is around .46% per day, with a growth decay of .024% per day.  This is slightly different to the data used on my original graph.

So here is what that data looks like on a few graphs:

[alan2here]

Absolutly chaz :-) You rock.

Can I see this on the log scale charts too.

[smoothie]

Nice chart, now if you could add something to back up the line I would love it more.  Not to beat you up but I hate when people make charts and then their is nothing to explain why the chart is doing what it is doing.  You must be an economist but finance people deal with facts and numbers and not graphs and theories.  They may bend the numbers or fake the numbers but at least you can see how they got there where as economist hid behind "all things being equal".  Hell that one statement alone allowed me to ace my econ classes with allot of words in front of it, easy.

As I tell all economist, love the idea but show me the facts and please prove me wrong because otherwise this is a fun line to look at on graph paper.

I'm no economist lol, I'm just trying to see how fast bitcoin is growing and what we can realistically expect for the future.  I've based the data on known low prices.  Current growth rate is around .46% per day, with a growth decay of .024% per day.  This is slightly different to the data used on my original graph.

So here is what that data looks like on a few graphs:

Exactly how are you weighting the average price?