Speculate About the years 2013-2016

[Chaz]

Exactly how are you weighting the average price?

I'm just using Mt.Gox weighted average price data from here: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD

Absolutly chaz :-) You rock.

Can I see this on the log scale charts too.

 

[1Pakis]

Excellent work.
Thanks

[dissipate]

I have no precise price predictions, but I predict that the Bitcoin economy will continue to bootstrap off these areas:

1. International transfers

Extremely low fee and rapid international transfers in a large number of countries (brought about by competitive exchanges/dealers in each respective country). 

2. Online gambling/gaming

Bitcoin makes for an unbeatable 'poker chip'. Also acts as a great game token for MMORPGs and other games that will allow players to earn Bitcoins in the game.

3. Underground markets

Silk Road will continue to grow until it is shut down (if it is shut down). In any event, a number of copy cat sites running on TOR will surely pop up (the software to start one's own Silk Road type site will be open source). Over the counter deals for black market transactions will probably also take place using Bitcoin.

4. Online revenue sharing for advertising/crowdsourcing

Bitcoin is awesome for sharing revenue from advertising or crowdsourced online enterprises. Imagine a YouTube type business model without any fiat currency restrictions on revenue sharing.

5. Wealth storage

Wealthy individuals who are looking for an alternative to gold will start putting money into Bitcoin for the same reasons they put it into gold. As the volatility of Bitcoin goes down (and liquidity goes up) due to an increase in activity from the first 4 use cases above, more wealth will move into Bitcoin as a means of wealth storage.

From the first 4, we might see a market cap of $500 million by 2016 (an extremely rough estimate). As the volatility of Bitcoin decreases, a lot more money will move from use case 5, sending the market cap towards $1 billion beyond that. After all this, Bitcoin will leave the bootstrapping phase and the mainstream financial/banking interests will have to do something about it. Expect a significant amount of chaos all along the way. Panic buying and panic selling will continue to occur as Bitcoin related news comes in.

[waspoza]

By 2015 there have been so many hacks that the general population no longer holds any bitcoins. The only use of Bitcoin is as a settlement currency between scammers and thieves.

With time comes experience, so security awareness will rise, not lower.

[ribuck]

By 2015 there have been so many hacks that the general population no longer holds any bitcoins. The only use of Bitcoin is as a settlement currency between scammers and thieves.

With time comes experience, so security awareness will rise, not lower.

Yes, of course. I was posting tongue-in-cheek. People will certainly learn that Bitcoin needs a different kind of security than the traditional western financial model.

My serious prediction is that there will be a very unstable phase after Bitcoin goes mainstream when many imitators will arise, created by governments and large corporations. I'm not sure how much Bitcoin will suffer during this phase, but I expect it will emerge stronger.

[Mageant]

End of 2012: Goverments admit the UFO coverup and that extraterrestials are real.

2013-2016: Everything changes
World consciousness changes from competition to cooperation.
Governments become transparent and then slowly fade away into oblivion.
The financial system becomes beneficial to all. Bitcoin becomes one of many widely used alternative currencies.
Wars end.
Religions disappear.
Free energy technologies appear ending poverty and environmental pollution.
New healing technologies appear giving health to everyone.
People start developing paranormal powers.
Humanity starts exploring Space.

[cbeast]

End of 2012: Goverments admit the UFO coverup and that extraterrestials are real.

2013-2016: Everything changes
World consciousness changes from competition to cooperation.
Governments become transparent and then slowly fade away into oblivion.
The financial system becomes beneficial to all. Bitcoin becomes one of many widely used alternative currencies.
Wars end.
Religions disappear.
Free energy technologies appear ending poverty and environmental pollution.
New healing technologies appear giving health to everyone.
People start developing paranormal powers.
Humanity starts exploring Space.

They legalize drugs?

[Mageant]

End of 2012: Goverments admit the UFO coverup and that extraterrestials are real.

2013-2016: Everything changes
World consciousness changes from competition to cooperation.
Governments become transparent and then slowly fade away into oblivion.
The financial system becomes beneficial to all. Bitcoin becomes one of many widely used alternative currencies.
Wars end.
Religions disappear.
Free energy technologies appear ending poverty and environmental pollution.
New healing technologies appear giving health to everyone.
People start developing paranormal powers.
Humanity starts exploring Space.

They legalize drugs?

Yes. 

[BrannigansLaw]

Briefcases are brout back by the hipsters and The last laundromat is closed. As for bitcoin; it's hoarded by the government by scamming people into investing into their stocks and schemes.

[1Pakis]

End of 2012: Goverments admit the UFO coverup and that extraterrestials are real.

2013-2016: Everything changes
World consciousness changes from competition to cooperation.
Governments become transparent and then slowly fade away into oblivion.
The financial system becomes beneficial to all. Bitcoin becomes one of many widely used alternative currencies.
Wars end.
Religions disappear.
Free energy technologies appear ending poverty and environmental pollution.
New healing technologies appear giving health to everyone.
People start developing paranormal powers.
Humanity starts exploring Space.

All that would take about 20 to 50 years

[jojo69]

The currency of many countries will start to default, US included.
Banks offer a "Global currency" deal that no one can refuse.
The global currency is introduced and soon after a global government. everyone's paper money / politicians  are the  same.
The Bank has successfully taken over the world.
The government start issuing new laws and basic human rights start to get squashed.
The people in some parts of the world want to separate from this new Global Government.
These people are quickly "taken care of"
Everyone on the planet now fears authority, and start to conform to the way they want us to live.
Life is easy so long as you obey.

Global technofascist regime reaches limits of resource utilization, loses control of marginal regions

Open source mesh networks continue to develop enabling coordinated resistance against global elite

Millions die; war, famine, radiological release



profit?

[jojo69]

End of 2012: Goverments admit the UFO coverup and that extraterrestials are real.

2013-2016: Everything changes
World consciousness changes from competition to cooperation.
Governments become transparent and then slowly fade away into oblivion.
The financial system becomes beneficial to all. Bitcoin becomes one of many widely used alternative currencies.
Wars end.
Religions disappear.
Free energy technologies appear ending poverty and environmental pollution.
New healing technologies appear giving health to everyone.
People start developing paranormal powers.
Humanity starts exploring Space.

drugs wear off

Mageant finds self back in reality shithole

[chriswilmer]

Someone should update the chart in this thread every week or so (to see how we are doing vs. growth projections).

[cloon]

Religion dissapears after war?
During war and system changes people start believing and do not quit...
Why should religions dissapear after war?

Ps: i believe in logic and not god

[Chaz]

Someone should update the chart in this thread every week or so (to see how we are doing vs. growth projections).

Here is a 2012 zoomed in view up to the 15th of September.  Probably only need to view an updated one once every few months.  As you can see it gives a price expectation of ~$14 for the end of the year.  Who knows though, could be $25, could be <$10   

[chriswilmer]

Maybe this chart is due for an update? How did your model do?

[notme]

Religion dissapears after war?
During war and system changes people start believing and do not quit...
Why should religions dissapear after war?

Ps: i believe in logic and not god

You've simply made logic your god, and your hardware has an error rate higher than a computer.  You should obviously let a computer make decisions for you.

[Chaz]

Maybe this chart is due for an update? How did your model do?

I had to change the calculation slightly because of the $9.74 low on 26th Oct 2012.  The price went through my predicted line.  This pushed the $100 prediction out by around 2 months.  If the price falls through the bottom again, I will concede that this model probably doesn't work 

But I was quite happy with the current rally prediction, on the 7th Jan 2013 the price was only 13c away from falling through my predicted line again.  Then all of a sudden boom lol.  The price is now $7.94 away.