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Author Topic: Trying To Understand Bitcoin Charts  (Read 2806 times)
Cataclysmic (OP)
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August 09, 2012, 04:45:30 PM
 #1

I'm finding that most of the charts on blockchain.info are well explained and useful, but there are a few that I'm having a hard time getting my head around and I hope someone might be able to help.  Here's what I'm confused about....

http://blockchain.info/charts/output-volume
That chart is described as follows:
"The total value of all transaction outputs per day. This includes coins which were returned to the sender as change."
Question 1: What is a "transaction output?"
Question 2: Why would a transaction ever have change that needs to be returned to the sender?  With BTC can't I give a vendor exact change every time, so that he'd never have to give me anything back?

http://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume
That chart is described as follows:
"Similar to the total output volume with the addition of an algorithm which attempts to remove change from the total value. This maybe a more accurate reflection of the true transaction volume."
Question 3: If the only difference between this chart and the one above is the removal of "change", why is the shape of these charts so dramatically different?  The huge difference makes it seem like the change that is returned to the buyer is comprised of MOST of the money that was initially transferred from buyer to seller.  It seems kind of like an equivalent real-world example would be me giving every cashier at the grocery store 5 times as much cash as is needed to cover the cost of my groceries... and then she gives me most of the money back.  This doesn't happen most of the time in real life, so why would it be happening most of the time with BTC?

http://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed
This chart is not explained well on blockchain.info but I found the following explanation on Forbes:
"Bitcoin Days Destroyed for any given transaction is calculated by taking the number of bitcoin in a transaction and multiplying it by the number of days it has been since those coins were last spent. Bitcoin Days Destroyed attempts to provide a reliable indication of transaction volume that strips out transfers to oneself and immediate account reorganizations since a high value for days destroyed indicates less hoarding and more old bitcoin on the move." Source: http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2012/07/31/top-10-bitcoin-statistics/
Question 4: If bitcoins were never divided into units smaller than 1 bitcoin, then I can understand how it would be possible to keep track of how long it's been since each bitcoin was last spent.  But since bitcoins are divisible into smaller units, I don't understand how it's possible to keep track of all that.  Does every single milli-milli-milli-bitcoin in existence have a unique identifier?  If no, how does anyone know when a certain milli-milli-milli-bitcoin was last spent?
Question 5: Can you explain how one can transfer BTC to oneself, and how would anyone know that you're transferring them to yourself rather than to someone else?
Question 6: What is an "immediate account reorganization"?
Question 7: I think an even more valuable chart than this one would be "Bitcoin Days Destroyed IN USD".  Bitcoin days destroyed is supposed to be valueable because it gives "a reliable indication of transaction volume"... but wouldn't it be even more telling if it was given in USD rather than BTC?  If yes, why doesn't blockchain.info publish that chart?

Thanks in advance for any answers!

Justin
DeathAndTaxes
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August 09, 2012, 05:06:24 PM
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Quote
   
Question 2: Why would a transaction ever have change that needs to be returned to the sender?  With BTC can't I give a vendor exact change every time, so that he'd never have to give me anything back?

Bitcoin can only create transactions by using as the input an ENTIRE prior unspent output.  The most important thing to realize is that Bitcoin tx have inputs and outputs.   The "value" of your wallet is an abstraction.  It is simply your client (software which analyzes the wallet) taking a SUM of all the unspent outputs which you have private keys for.   The input of a tx is the output of a PRIOR tx.  You can only use unspent outputs in a new tx.  Once they are part of a tx they can never be used again ("spent").   

Say you I send you 50 BTC (for simplicity lets assume this is compromised of a single 50 BTC output).   No matter how you spend that the input for the tx will be 50 BTC.  

Want to spend 20 BTC?   Input: 50 BTC   Output: 20 BTC + 30 BTC "change" back to an address you control.
Want to spend 1 BTC?  Input: 50 BTC  Output: 1 BTC + 49 BTC "change" back to an address you control.

Quote
Question 3: If the only difference between this chart and the one above is the removal of "change", why is the shape of these charts so dramatically different?  The huge difference makes it seem like the change that is returned to the buyer is comprised of MOST of the money that was initially transferred from buyer to seller.  It seems kind of like an equivalent real-world example would be me giving every cashier at the grocery store 5 times as much cash as is needed to cover the cost of my groceries... and then she gives me most of the money back.  This doesn't happen most of the time in real life, so why would it be happening most of the time with BTC?

In the early days of Bitcoin there really was nothing to "spend" it on so most tx tended to be accumulation.  This resulted in most addresses having very large unspent outputs. As people started "breaking" up those unspent outputs in tx involving smaller amounts most of the volume WAS change.  Nice observation.


Forget the crypto lets think about it in physical terms that might make it easier.
In the physical world with fiat say you want to buy a soda at the store for $1.25.   You open your wallet and the only bill inside is a $50 one.   How large will the tx be?  $50 right?   Input: $50 from your wallet.  Output: $1.25 to merchant's "wallet", $48.75 back to your wallet. Now in the fiat world your $48.75 is compromised of multiple fixed denomination bills & coins.  Only the central bank can issue currency and they issue them in a few fixed size denominations.

Now imagine the physical world worked like the Bitcoin protocol.  In Bitcoin the outputs (i.e. $1.25 to merchant AND $47.75 back to you) become new "bills".   Hypothetically the merchant would destroy your $50 bill and in the process print a $1.25 bill for himself (not a dollar and a quarter but a single $1.25 bill) and a $47.75 bill for you.   Your "change" wouldn't be a bunch of fixed denomination bills it would be a newly printed bill for exactly $48.75.

Why doesn't the fiat world work that way?  Well the obvious reason is trust.   A merchant could cheat and destroy a $50 bill and make $100 or $1,000 worth of new bills.   The bitcoin protocol prevents that.   Miners validate tx and put them in blocks.  Those blocks will be rejected by other miners if they are invalid.  If you have a tx which has $50 input and $50.00 + $1.25 output it will be invalid.   If the tx is invalid the block is invalid.  Since miners get compensated for good blocks added to the blockchain they have an incentive to reject bad tx.

Now all these examples have involved a single input for simplicity but they don't have to.   Say I give you a $28.75 bill.  Your wallet now has two bills one for $48.75 and one for $28.75 (in Bitcoin we would call these unspent outputs).  If you wanted to buy something which was <$28.75 you could use either bill.   If you wanted to buy something more than $48.75 you would need to use both bills.   If you had lots of bills you could choose the ones which closest matches the change to make it small (or possibly nothing).


Stephen Gornick
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August 09, 2012, 08:01:33 PM
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Question 4: If bitcoins were never divided into units smaller than 1 bitcoin, then I can understand how it would be possible to keep track of how long it's been since each bitcoin was last spent.  But since bitcoins are divisible into smaller units, I don't understand how it's possible to keep track of all that.  Does every single milli-milli-milli-bitcoin in existence have a unique identifier?

The tree view (Dendogram) by Blockchain.info might help you understand it.

Here's an article:
 - http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2012/04/02/watch-bitcoin-robbery-in-slow-motion/

Here's the dendogram from the article:
 - http://blockchain.info/tree/2893660

So there is no relationship between a bitcoin address and a set amount of bitcoin for that address.  They don't work like denominations of currency.  The balance for an address is a summation of all unspent transaction outputs previously sent to that address.   Some of these totals will be really tiny amounts, and others will be very large amounts.

Question 5: Can you explain how one can transfer BTC to oneself, and how would anyone know that you're transferring them to yourself rather than to someone else?

I'm not sure what scenario you might be thinking of.  With the bitcoin client you have receiving addresses.  You will receive any funds sent to any of those addresses.  Perhaps you are referring to when you have a hosted (shared) wallet with a third party provider?  Each one can handle bitcoin addresses in a unique way.   For example, with some services Bitcoin deposit addresses can be used just once.  So be sure to follow the correct method for the service you are using, if that is the case.

Question 6: What is an "immediate account reorganization"?

No idea, where did you come by that term?

Question 7: I think an even more valuable chart than this one would be "Bitcoin Days Destroyed IN USD".  Bitcoin days destroyed is supposed to be valueable because it gives "a reliable indication of transaction volume"... but wouldn't it be even more telling if it was given in USD rather than BTC?  If yes, why doesn't blockchain.info publish that chart?

Perhaps, but don't put too much value to this chart.  That BDD metric is not much of a reliable indication of anything -- as it can be manipulated to throw off speculators. (Someone with a large amount of funds can transfer an amount right back to themselves.  There would be a lot of BitcoinDays destroyed but no economic activity.)    At best is helps give an advance warning that someone might be moving bitcoins to an exchange and to pay closer attention over the next hours and days.

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Cataclysmic (OP)
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August 12, 2012, 08:43:23 PM
 #4

DeathAndTaxes: Thank you for the great explanation.  I understand everything you wrote.  I think it's crazy that no central location exists where such easy to follow explanations of how bitcoin works are readily available.

Question 5: Can you explain how one can transfer BTC to oneself, and how would anyone know that you're transferring them to yourself rather than to someone else?

I'm not sure what scenario you might be thinking of.  With the bitcoin client you have receiving addresses.  You will receive any funds sent to any of those addresses.  Perhaps you are referring to when you have a hosted (shared) wallet with a third party provider?  Each one can handle bitcoin addresses in a unique way.   For example, with some services Bitcoin deposit addresses can be used just once.  So be sure to follow the correct method for the service you are using, if that is the case.

I'm not sure what scenario I might be thinking of either.  My question was in reference to the excerpt from the Forbes article that I included in my opening post.  I guess a better question might be "What scenario was Jon Matonis thinking of?"  Perhaps neither you nor I can answer that question.

Question 6: What is an "immediate account reorganization"?

No idea, where did you come by that term?

Again that term was in the quote that I pasted into my opening post from the Forbes article.  If a "hero member" on this forum can't figure it out, I guess the problem may be that Jon Matonis simply didn't explain what he meant clearly enough in his article.

That BDD metric is not much of a reliable indication of anything -- as it can be manipulated to throw off speculators. (Someone with a large amount of funds can transfer an amount right back to themselves.  There would be a lot of BitcoinDays destroyed but no economic activity.)

For the same reason, couldn't you also say that the "Estimated Transaction Volume" and "Estimated Transaction Volume In USD"...
Here: http://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume
And Here: http://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume-usd
...aren't much of a reliable indication of anything either?  I expect they could also be manipulated by people who transfer a large amount of funds right back to themselves, right?

If that's true, is there ANY reliable indication anywhere of how much valid economic activity is happening in the bitcoin economy?  If yes, where?
Strider Hiryu
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August 13, 2012, 10:12:38 AM
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Question 6: What is an "immediate account reorganization"?

No idea, where did you come by that term?

Again that term was in the quote that I pasted into my opening post from the Forbes article.  If a "hero member" on this forum can't figure it out, I guess the problem may be that Jon Matonis simply didn't explain what he meant clearly enough in his article.

That BDD metric is not much of a reliable indication of anything -- as it can be manipulated to throw off speculators. (Someone with a large amount of funds can transfer an amount right back to themselves.  There would be a lot of BitcoinDays destroyed but no economic activity.)

For the same reason, couldn't you also say that the "Estimated Transaction Volume" and "Estimated Transaction Volume In USD"...
Here: http://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume
And Here: http://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume-usd
...aren't much of a reliable indication of anything either?  I expect they could also be manipulated by people who transfer a large amount of funds right back to themselves, right?

If that's true, is there ANY reliable indication anywhere of how much valid economic activity is happening in the bitcoin economy?  If yes, where?

"immediate account reorganization" - in the article they are trying to determine bitcoin statistics, but the bitcoin client will create many new addresses in a wallet and shuffle bitcoin around between them (since all bitcoin at a particular address must be spent) - I assume that is what he meant by "immediate account reorganization" (a term he just made up btw).
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