Block halving

[zekarsalih]

When is the next Block halving planned to come? I want to start mining so need to know how that will effect Profit.  If the rewards are halve, I guess we get 50procent less
 income. If that is the case O really wonder when it is estimated to be.

Regards

[OnkelPaul]

http://bitcoinclock.com/ shows it exactly to the second (of course, the exact time is impossible to determine in advance, but it will give you an idea)

Onkel Paul

[notlist3d]

I am really curious what will happen at halving.   With miners it will be a big loss in income, just wonder if price will follow.

Guess we wont know for sure for a while

[abyrnes81]

When is the next Block halving planned to come? I want to start mining so need to know how that will effect Profit.  If the rewards are halve, I guess we get 50procent less
 income. If that is the case O really wonder when it is estimated to be.

Regards

Some users think if the block reward will drop to 12.5 btc then the bitcoin price for 1 btc will go up, but it is only an supposition.

[aurel57]

When is the next Block halving planned to come? I want to start mining so need to know how that will effect Profit.  If the rewards are halve, I guess we get 50procent less
 income. If that is the case O really wonder when it is estimated to be.

Regards

Some users think if the block reward will drop to 12.5 btc then the bitcoin price for 1 btc will go up, but it is only an supposition.

It kind of makes sense that the price could go up but if mining is no longer profitable will we see difficulty come down? Will people quit buying mining equipment? When BTC was at it high price of $1000+ mining equipment was in big demand and most if not all was being bought using BTC and that was in my opinion one of the reasons that caused the high price.  Its anybody's guess but be careful for a run up and dump.  

[Korbman]

When is the next Block halving planned to come? I want to start mining so need to know how that will effect Profit.  If the rewards are halve, I guess we get 50procent less
 income. If that is the case O really wonder when it is estimated to be.

Regards

As others have pointed out, the BitcoinClock site is pretty handy. The Bitcoin Wiki should help as well: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

Regarding how it will affect your everyone's profits, that's an unknown, but it could be assumed that the price per coin would increase. Bitcoin Magazine had an article about the first drop written back in 2012.

The TL;DR version is that we could experience 'Supply Shock'...either it would be factored into the market price prior to the drop, or the price will increase post-halving to compensate for the reduction in income.

Looking at the BitStamp price charts from 2 months before to 2 months after the first halving , we can see an obvious increase...but that's only a fraction of the whole picture and may not completely correlate to the reward drop. There were a number of other factors leading to the price increase during that period (increased publicity, the first ASICs coming to market, etc).

[zekarsalih]

Guys just a suggestion:

What if they calculated product life cycles of miners and estimated that everytime we smalltime miners get close to break even they will launch a way better product and increase diffulty to such a degree that even with free electricity its not worth our while?

you get me ?
so kinda ponzi scammish,

I read on one topic that people were talking about "whales" that will take away our money all the time. This brings back memmories for me ... I dont like being a fish to the whales

[Jamphone]

Guys just a suggestion:

What if they calculated product life cycles of miners and estimated that everytime we smalltime miners get close to break even they will launch a way better product and increase diffulty to such a degree that even with free electricity its not worth our while?

you get me ?
so kinda ponzi scammish,

I read on one topic that people were talking about "whales" that will take away our money all the time. This brings back memmories for me ... I dont like being a fish to the whales

Zekarsalih, you've learned so much. I'm actually very proud of you.

[stonerider]

Currently, mining produces about 3600 bitcoins a day. Compared to the total available bitcoins for sale on the market, the daily production of 3600 coins is nothing. Also, not every newly mined coins go to the market to be sold, in other words, some miners like to keep their bitcoins for themselves.

Let's say the next halfing is July 29th, 2015; on that day, mining reward will drop from 3600 bitcoins a day to 1800 bitcoins a day. Compared to the total available bitcoins for sale on the market, the daily production of 1800 coins will be minscule. Again, not all miners sell their newly mined coins. Most of miners, I suspect, like to keep at least SOME of their bitcoins.

My point is this: the number of mined bitcoins coming into an open market is nothing compared to the total available coins offered to sell. They don't have huge impact that some people think.

The question, how much impact? I'd venture my guess and say 5% or less, on the bitcoin price.

[alh]

I think the next "Block Reward Halving", estimated for mid 2016, will have a significant impact on mining. If all mining operations just ignore it, their income will just get cut in half one day in Mid-2016. Since the larger operations usually have to liquidate some portion of their mined Bitcoins to pay for rent, electricity, salaries and the like, what's leftover will be reduced significantly. I would also venture to say that absent a corresponding increase in the price of Bitcoin, the value of the mining hardware will also drop in a big way, since each bit hardware doesn't produce as much per unit of time. Since I have zero idea what drives the price of Bitcoin, beyond the usual supply/demand theories, there isn't anything to pressure the price upwards. That ill crush many mining operations. I've said before, I can't think of any other industrial operation where this happens "overnight" like it will with Bitcoin.

[Iuvenalis]

I think the next "Block Reward Halving", estimated for mid 2016, will have a significant impact on mining. If all mining operations just ignore it, their income will just get cut in half one day in Mid-2016. Since the larger operations usually have to liquidate some portion of their mined Bitcoins to pay for rent, electricity, salaries and the like, what's leftover will be reduced significantly. I would also venture to say that absent a corresponding increase in the price of Bitcoin, the value of the mining hardware will also drop in a big way, since each bit hardware doesn't produce as much per unit of time. Since I have zero idea what drives the price of Bitcoin, beyond the usual supply/demand theories, there isn't anything to pressure the price upwards. That ill crush many mining operations. I've said before, I can't think of any other industrial operation where this happens "overnight" like it will with Bitcoin.

no one would know what is going to happen. if the price is high enough and ASICs become efficient enough, most mining operators would ignore it as long as it still brings in profit after deducting expenses.

[alh]

I think the next "Block Reward Halving", estimated for mid 2016, will have a significant impact on mining. If all mining operations just ignore it, their income will just get cut in half one day in Mid-2016. Since the larger operations usually have to liquidate some portion of their mined Bitcoins to pay for rent, electricity, salaries and the like, what's leftover will be reduced significantly. I would also venture to say that absent a corresponding increase in the price of Bitcoin, the value of the mining hardware will also drop in a big way, since each bit hardware doesn't produce as much per unit of time. Since I have zero idea what drives the price of Bitcoin, beyond the usual supply/demand theories, there isn't anything to pressure the price upwards. That ill crush many mining operations. I've said before, I can't think of any other industrial operation where this happens "overnight" like it will with Bitcoin.

no one would know what is going to happen. if the price is high enough and ASICs become efficient enough, most mining operators would ignore it as long as it still brings in profit after deducting expenses.

I beg to differ. While it's quite possible that many mining operations will continue to mine and make an operating profit, they will all notice the income drop and re-think how much they are willing to risk on mining Bitcoins. After all if you were make $1000/day profit (after costs) on Thursday, and then on Friday you were only making $200/day profit, you would notice. Also while you thought you had $500K in mining hardware value on Thursday, on Friday it's worth no more than $350K (probably less). That's worse than new car depreciation by a long shot. I personally would notice, and NOT ignore, that kind of drop.

[abyrnes81]

When is the next Block halving planned to come? I want to start mining so need to know how that will effect Profit.  If the rewards are halve, I guess we get 50procent less
 income. If that is the case O really wonder when it is estimated to be.

Regards

Some users think if the block reward will drop to 12.5 btc then the bitcoin price for 1 btc will go up, but it is only an supposition.

It kind of makes sense that the price could go up but if mining is no longer profitable will we see difficulty come down? Will people quit buying mining equipment? When BTC was at it high price of $1000+ mining equipment was in big demand and most if not all was being bought using BTC and that was in my opinion one of the reasons that caused the high price.  Its anybody's guess but be careful for a run up and dump.  

If people will quit from the mining activity , the bitcoin network (called blockchain) with all the nodes, transaction, miners etc will be less secure and more weak to the various attack (51% , sybil attack, etc). The hash 'power' will drop drastically and if the price will not raise a lot of people will abandon bitcoin ( who think bitcoin as only speculation ).

[zetaray]

The next halving will happen in 15 months. Long time to go in my opinion. Anything could happen before that. More retail adoption and large corp support, or more auctions and exchange scams. You can never know for sure. When block reward halving is near, mining equipment prices will surely go down.

[RealMalatesta]

If anybody knew... There are so many possibilities that we just can sit here and wait. As a miner, I just try to get the best electricity deal available. Furthermore, I invest as much as possible in an infrastructure which will - at the end of the day - make electricity even cheaper. So everything is being prepared for the day of the halving. In the best case, I'll make more money with mining and with selling heat, in the worst case, I make less. So the ultimate goal is to calculate in a way that you will always make profits.

[Amph]

it's planned for late 2016

I am really curious what will happen at halving.   With miners it will be a big loss in income, just wonder if price will follow.

Guess we wont know for sure for a while

from how i can see it, the miners follow the price not the contrary

Guys just a suggestion:

What if they calculated product life cycles of miners and estimated that everytime we smalltime miners get close to break even they will launch a way better product and increase diffulty to such a degree that even with free electricity its not worth our while?

you get me ?
so kinda ponzi scammish,

I read on one topic that people were talking about "whales" that will take away our money all the time. This brings back memmories for me ... I dont like being a fish to the whales

isn't this the same shit about pre-order crap, so by the time you get your pre-order a new product is available and you will never roi

[Minerjoe]

When is the next Block halving planned to come? I want to start mining so need to know how that will effect Profit.  If the rewards are halve, I guess we get 50procent less
 income. If that is the case O really wonder when it is estimated to be.

Regards

We get 50% less BTC per block but the price should go up significantly. So the income might stay more less the same.

[Alley]

We would need to know exactly how many new coins are sold everyday to know the effect of price after the halving.  Miners need to instantly double there ask price after the halving.  But if only 10% of new coins are being sold then the halving won't have much of an effect.  That also means there is barely any new money coming into the bitcoin economy on a daily basis.

[keystroke]

Just pulled up a day to the 28th of July with the recent difficulty increase. If we do get more efficient ASICs on the net it could even move to early July by then.

[goosoodude]

I am really curious what will happen at halving.   With miners it will be a big loss in income, just wonder if price will follow.

Guess we wont know for sure for a while

You know what will happen. Block interval would increase till difficuly adjust and after a few adjustments difficulty will roughly be halved.

I dont expect the block halving to have much effect on the price, but only on the difficulty.