small home mining, the future?

[soy]

So, where are we.  Home mining is only marginally profitable.  Small business owners running miners at work are only robbing Peter to pay Paul and it will probably become noticeable eventually.  But the large farms must pay rent and wages that the home miner doesn't - even if the large farms get their mining gear cheaper.  And that Novec ain't cheap.

Payout halves next year.  We've seen that as GH/s/$ decrease, the value of Bitcoin correspondingly decrease.  An optimist might project that when payout halves the value of Bitcoin will double. 

But the large farms dump inefficient mining gear and buy huge lots of the most efficient.  Meanwhile for the home miner, getting the most efficient miners at a reasonable price is now met with delays or unavailability.

I'm expecting that next year when the payout halves, the competition between the large farms for a bigger share of the pie will intensify.  They will have no real incentive to see an effective doubling of Bitcoin value to match the halved payout.  Instead the best will work to drive the Bitcoin value down expecting large marginally profitable farms to quit.

So, home mining will continue until home heating isn't needed in the spring and remain off until it gets cold.  That or lose money.

I could be wrong.

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[Biodom]

try to imagine yourself in November of 2011 and apply the same logic, considering that price was low, halving was coming, miners were unprofitable, bitcoin was in the downtrend. How did that situation predicted the next 24 mo with bitcoin going from $2 to $1160? It didn't. I am not saying that we will have the same spurt, just that it is not really predictable.

I would agree with you that it seems that in bitcoin soup some ingredient is currently missing and it is getting a bit boring lately, unfortunately.
All news are either about someone stealing bitcoin or about regulation.

[soy]

Well if you want to get onto the banks wanting bitcoin dead so their expensive bank transfers are again the way to transfer money....  Banks want bitcoin dead or at least as unpopular as media can make it without seeming obvious.

Was the rise in large Bitcoin mining farms expected?  Those farms were/are expensive.  That they dump their minings to pay off costs would be expected.  That it looks like that action over time drove the value of Bitcoins down might have been unexpected.  Certainly unexpected for those who paid cash for Bitcoins and held on hoping that their scarcity would drive up the price who now own Bitcoins worth only a small fraction of their original cost.

The one positive aspect of Bitcoin value down to mining operating costs and loan payoff is that the value fall has leveled off.  Will this kill a hoped for spring rise into summer?  Don't know.

The large farms realize that the halving early next year means that paying off a new miner this year, after electric, means one must get it up and running ASAP.  A spring rise in Bitcoin value into summer would temp home enthusiasts to buy one last time.  So, maybe that would provoke low Bitcoin value thru to summer.

[philipma1957]

 Well for the home miner   the best innovation  is big range watt per gh gear.

A s-5 is almost flat at .51 watts per gh

a sp20 is .47 to .6 watts   per gh

an avalon 4.1 is .43 to .7 watts per gh.


 if a .3 watt to .6 watt per gh miner comes out it lets your miner earn longer.

if a .20 watt to .55 watt per gh miner comes out even better.

Just think if your s-5  was not locked at .51 watts     we know it can really go   up to .55  and down to .35  if it had been sold this  way it would have longer life.

It could even weather the summer clocked low to .35 then bump up to .55  for cold weather.

I would love to see gear that can really dial down and up the watt/gh scale.

[soy]

Then you're back to equipment availability.  If manufacturing runs are pre-sold to large farms at a discount avoiding the overhead of dealing with the public, that's what's going to happen.  Look at US industry - how many products are produced to be sold to industry and NOT to the public.  That's not because the public will do harm with the product but that the public is expensive to deal with.

[philipma1957]

Then you're back to equipment availability.  If manufacturing runs are pre-sold to large farms at a discount avoiding the overhead of dealing with the public, that's what's going to happen.  Look at US industry - how many products are produced to be sold to industry and NOT to the public.  That's not because the public will do harm with the product but that the public is expensive to deal with.

BTC will not work with 6-8  worldwide super farms and 2-4  builders of asics.  Note the bolding  on the word  "and".



Like it or not the network needs some grease to work  so the big guys need grease and little home miners serve as the grease for the network.

Safety valve .
Circuit breaker.
Safety net.
 whatever words you want to use.

[NUFCrichard]

try to imagine yourself in November of 2011 and apply the same logic, considering that price was low, halving was coming, miners were unprofitable, bitcoin was in the downtrend. How did that situation predicted the next 24 mo with bitcoin going from $2 to $1160? It didn't. I am not saying that we will have the same spurt, just that it is not really predictable.

I would agree with you that it seems that in bitcoin soup some ingredient is currently missing and it is getting a bit boring lately, unfortunately.
All news are either about someone stealing bitcoin or about regulation.

In 2011 the amount of money you would have spent on a mining farm would have been a lot lower than what people spend on a farm now though.
IF the price stays low up until and after the halving next year, then I guess the difficulty will have to fall significantly, otherwise the miners are just being charity workers propping up the network!

[notlist3d]

I think there will always be some home mining.   What it will look like I'm not sure.  But with low priced electricity they will always have a spot.

Right now is kinda a  wierd time on mining waiting on next gen gear.   I think whall we wait on next gen chips difficulty will not have any big jumps, and small miner will hopefully have a few good months.

[soy]

The network needs grease to work.  Okay.  Nobody with sense will mine at a loss.  But explain how the network won't work with only a few large mega farms and a few ASIC manufacturers.  I don't quite see how it can't.

[notlist3d]

The network needs grease to work.  Okay.  Nobody with sense will mine at a loss.  But explain how the network won't work with only a few large mega farms and a few ASIC manufacturers.  I don't quite see how it can't.

Sure it would keep working, the blockchain will not stop.  But it would lose it's decentralization model that it's always been thought of.

[soy]

The network needs grease to work.  Okay.  Nobody with sense will mine at a loss.  But explain how the network won't work with only a few large mega farms and a few ASIC manufacturers.  I don't quite see how it can't.

Sure it would keep working, the blockchain will not stop.  But it would lose it's decentralization model that it's always been thought of.

And a US legal system founded on verdicts by a jury of our peers.  What percentage of jailed inmates never saw a jury?  Very high percentage, almost all. 

So, the decentralization model might be the ideal but will profit and pragmatism allow it to be so in the future?

[notlist3d]

The network needs grease to work.  Okay.  Nobody with sense will mine at a loss.  But explain how the network won't work with only a few large mega farms and a few ASIC manufacturers.  I don't quite see how it can't.

Sure it would keep working, the blockchain will not stop.  But it would lose it's decentralization model that it's always been thought of.

And a US legal system founded on verdicts by a jury of our peers.  What percentage of jailed inmates never saw a jury?  Very high percentage, almost all. 

So, the decentralization model might be the ideal but will profit and pragmatism allow it to be so in the future?

I would say we don't know the future.  Crypto cash is still pretty new overall.  We are at the beginning of what it will be.  Decentralization has always been important, but will it always be? I cant say.

Only thing we have to compare really was look at when a pool nears 51 percent.  The community does not accept that so far.

[Amph]

The network needs grease to work.  Okay.  Nobody with sense will mine at a loss.  But explain how the network won't work with only a few large mega farms and a few ASIC manufacturers.  I don't quite see how it can't.

right now there is too much centralization on mining, when bitcoin is supposed to be decentralized, not looking good indeed

small miners need their spots, for this to happenen, the price should increase fast(faster than the diff), this should make mining profitable again even for casual miners

[notlist3d]

The network needs grease to work.  Okay.  Nobody with sense will mine at a loss.  But explain how the network won't work with only a few large mega farms and a few ASIC manufacturers.  I don't quite see how it can't.

right now there is too much centralization on mining, when bitcoin is supposed to be decentralized, not looking good indeed

small miners need their spots, for this to happenen, the price should increase fast(faster than the diff), this should make mining profitable again even for casual miners

I think there will always be a spot for small miners. Right now with it being between generations on chips, it's a interesting time. The longer we remain waiting on next gen the better of small miners do.

[larsson]

Would it even be worth mining at all ? if having around  1TH/s ? thanks !

[adaseb]

In my opinion for there to be any profit for small home miners like ourselves then BTC needs to stay low. If the price remains constant, then some large farms might come online when newer technology comes out. If price goes down, no new technology will come out and difficulty will remain constant or decrease.


If price goes up, mining will be profitable for only a short amount of time.

[CardRipper]

look at btc like a stock. it is huge success with $250+ shares. look at as currency. u can see ppl use it widely and with little fees. look at it from mining and u see dead end game always shifting who can b ahead in future. in end only small operation make the save and lots of loss for mining. mining only support it, yes can profit but only short while. 2 many have to dump over and over only hurting themselves and every operation further. believers>profiteers

[notlist3d]

Would it even be worth mining at all ? if having around  1TH/s ? thanks !

You can go to bitcoin widom and do some ROI math. 

We can help if you let us know price you pay for the miner and your electricity rate.

[notlist3d]

look at btc like a stock. it is huge success with $250+ shares. look at as currency. u can see ppl use it widely and with little fees. look at it from mining and u see dead end game always shifting who can b ahead in future. in end only small operation make the save and lots of loss for mining. mining only support it, yes can profit but only short while. 2 many have to dump over and over only hurting themselves and every operation further. believers>profiteers

You can profit short and long term if you operate your mining operation correctly.  Granted you need things such as low priced electricity.

[bill gator]

As far as mining now days do ROI and see if buying a machine or hosted miner makes most sense for you.