try to imagine yourself in November of 2011 and apply the same logic, considering that price was low, halving was coming, miners were unprofitable, bitcoin was in the downtrend. How did that situation predicted the next 24 mo with bitcoin going from $2 to $1160? It didn't. I am not saying that we will have the same spurt, just that it is not really predictable.
Mining technology was growing at an exponential rate at the end of 2011 and that had a huge factor on btc value and network difficulty. We do not have that same exponential technology growth this time around. I think the halving is going to see a lot of large farms shut down. Eventually, after another couple halvings, farm mining will be cost ineffective and home mining will hopefully be the top dog. I think, in the long run, home mining dominating the network is "more healthy" for bitcoin than all these large multi-petahash farms.