Buying bitcoins feels like buying winning lottery tickets

[mcplums]

I actually have a serious point to make. I only discovered bitcoin three months ago, but I have spent many hours since reading a huge amount on the subject. I've done my very best to look at things objectively, and have listened to arguments from both sides. I have arrived at the conclusion that cryptocurrencies will, with absolute certainty, play a huge role in all our futures. It may not be with bitcoin- but it's looking increasingly likely that it will be with the crazy network effects, huge existing mining pool, and cryptocurrency 2.0 apps being built on top of it (counterparty for example).

Given the above, a bitcoin market cap of above $1trn is not only not unlikely, it seems to me that it's almost inevitable. So I have invested 75% of my life savings into it, and intend to hold it for years without spending a single satoshi. BUT WHY ISN'T EVERYONE ELSE DOING THE SAME!? Am I missing something? I can't help but think that I must be- the notion that I am right, and almost everyone else is wrong seems too good to be true.

I'm aware of the various cognitive biases which may be affecting my judgement, and have been careful not to forget the idea that 'The moment we want to believe something, we suddenly see all the arguments for it, and become blind to the arguments against it.' Yet even considering all these things, I still arrive at the inescapable conclusion that bitcoin is headed to very, very green pastures.

So I suppose the point of this post is to ask- am I missing something? Have I underestimated the chances of something going severely wrong, such as a major code fail? Could crypto simply 'fall out of fashion' and everyone goes back to fiat?


 

[r0ach]

Factors such as centralization of mining pools, some kind of viable PoS solution, or PoS/PoW hybrid overtaking it, scalability, etc.  There's a lot of variables where it might succeed or not.  Bitcoin is a decent investment that might offer huge returns, but it's not guaranteed.

[Biodom]

I actually have a serious point to make. I only discovered bitcoin three months ago, but I have spent many hours since reading a huge amount on the subject. I've done my very best to look at things objectively, and have listened to arguments from both sides. I have arrived at the conclusion that cryptocurrencies will, with absolute certainty, play a huge role in all our futures. It may not be with bitcoin- but it's looking increasingly likely that it will be with the crazy network effects, huge existing mining pool, and cryptocurrency 2.0 apps being built on top of it (counterparty for example).

Given the above, a bitcoin market cap of above $1trn is not only not unlikely, it seems to me that it's almost inevitable. So I have invested 75% of my life savings into it, and intend to hold it for years without spending a single satoshi. BUT WHY ISN'T EVERYONE ELSE DOING THE SAME!? Am I missing something? I can't help but think that I must be- the notion that I am right, and almost everyone else is wrong seems too good to be true.

I'm aware of the various cognitive biases which may be affecting my judgement, and have been careful not to forget the idea that 'The moment we want to believe something, we suddenly see all the arguments for it, and become blind to the arguments against it.' Yet even considering all these things, I still arrive at the inescapable conclusion that bitcoin is headed to very, very green pastures.

So I suppose the point of this post is to ask- am I missing something? Have I underestimated the chances of something going severely wrong, such as a major code fail? Could crypto simply 'fall out of fashion' and everyone goes back to fiat?


 

Depending on your age and risk taking profile 75% would be excessive or not.
My formula is: subtract your age from 100, then divide the remainder by a factor of 3=% to invest in bitcoin.
[(100-A)/3]x100=% to invest
So for a newborn baby that got some cash (from parents and grandparents): 33%
For 20 year old it would be 24%
For 50 year old 17%

Apart from that, the opposition from the establishment is the most possible negative. They already got their money in $$. Why switch over? We can hope that bitcoin will develop slowly and they will switch over during 2-3 decades. Then, it might work.

[r0ach]

75% of life savings is a little excessive for something that can still gain or lose half it's value overnight.  The main reason to hold Bitcoin right now is an insurance policy against USD or EU fiat implosion imo.

[calme]

That's a reckless strategy. But probably a super profitable one if you stay the course.

[Dilla]

Everyone isn't doing the same because they are unsure what the future will hold. I think things will change a lot once Gemini and ETF is launched, and Bitcoin goes more mainstream, probably into next year sometime. I think it will be a gradual steady growth until a nice boom up. 1 tril really isn't that unimaginable.

[mcplums]

75% of life savings is a little excessive for something that can still gain or lose half it's value overnight.  The main reason to hold Bitcoin right now is an insurance policy against USD or EU fiat implosion imo.

Since I'm in this for the long haul I don't think it really matters if it loses half its value overnight. I can cope without accessing the money for years. All that matters is the long term growth.

[hector3115]

I agree.  Once I found out about it almost 1 year ago today I have been obsessed everyday since.  There are many more like me and you out there that just haven't discovered it yet.

[mcplums]

I agree.  Once I found out about it almost 1 year ago today I have been obsessed everyday since.  There are many more like me and you out there that just haven't discovered it yet.

Hey buddy! It's great to find people in the exact same boat as me. And yes, I'm sure there are many hundreds just like us finding out about bitcoin every day. I'm not a techie guy, my job is an accountant for fucks sake, if I found out about it anyone can.

Bad luck finding out about it a year ago I thank the lord jeebus every day that I only got involved in January 2015.

[paulifa123]

Good for you! 100% of my savings are in Bitcoin. Reckless, maybe, but it's such a piss poor small amount anyway, if it goes to nothing, so what, but if it does take off, I'll have a very tidy sum indeed. Risk is always relative. Everyone told me I was stupid to invest all my pension fund in Tesla 3 years ago at $20, when the fund was next to nothing, so if I lost it, who cared? I sold Tesla @ $250 and restructured the fund, retirement is looking much closer and better now and no one is laughing anymore  

Sometimes, caution is the biggest risk of all....

[futureofbitcoin]

I actually have a serious point to make. I only discovered bitcoin three months ago, but I have spent many hours since reading a huge amount on the subject. I've done my very best to look at things objectively, and have listened to arguments from both sides. I have arrived at the conclusion that cryptocurrencies will, with absolute certainty, play a huge role in all our futures. It may not be with bitcoin- but it's looking increasingly likely that it will be with the crazy network effects, huge existing mining pool, and cryptocurrency 2.0 apps being built on top of it (counterparty for example).

Given the above, a bitcoin market cap of above $1trn is not only not unlikely, it seems to me that it's almost inevitable. So I have invested 75% of my life savings into it, and intend to hold it for years without spending a single satoshi. BUT WHY ISN'T EVERYONE ELSE DOING THE SAME!? Am I missing something? I can't help but think that I must be- the notion that I am right, and almost everyone else is wrong seems too good to be true.

I'm aware of the various cognitive biases which may be affecting my judgement, and have been careful not to forget the idea that 'The moment we want to believe something, we suddenly see all the arguments for it, and become blind to the arguments against it.' Yet even considering all these things, I still arrive at the inescapable conclusion that bitcoin is headed to very, very green pastures.

So I suppose the point of this post is to ask- am I missing something? Have I underestimated the chances of something going severely wrong, such as a major code fail? Could crypto simply 'fall out of fashion' and everyone goes back to fiat?

We are very similar. I knew about bitcoin a long time ago, since the first crash from $30. But I knew of it as fake money for illegal uses, and didn't care about it until this year. It's funny, really. I would've never got into bitcoin had I not come to China. With the firewall here, I couldn't really do much, so I went to find new ways for entertainment; I stumbled across an article I saved 5 years ago by fred wilson, and proceeded to read his blog. I wondered why a legit and reputable VC like him was so interested in this illegal fake money, so I started looking more and more into it. Now I'm pretty much convinced that it will succeed.

Then I ended up with the same questions as you. How come people aren't making big bets in this? Don't they want a chance at complete financial freedom? And I realized that they don't. Most people are content with their life now, even if they don't realize it. They think getting rich or whatever is just a dream and impossible, and stuff like that. And with their mindset, they'll never succeed. Even if bitcoin fails, if we believe we can succeed and really look for ways to do it, I'm sure it'll happen eventually. But when you give up beforehand, you've already lost the battle.

[mcplums]

Then I ended up with the same questions as you. How come people aren't making big bets in this? Don't they want a chance at complete financial freedom? And I realized that they don't. Most people are content with their life now, even if they don't realize it. They think getting rich or whatever is just a dream and impossible, and stuff like that. And with their mindset, they'll never succeed. Even if bitcoin fails, if we believe we can succeed and really look for ways to do it, I'm sure it'll happen eventually. But when you give up beforehand, you've already lost the battle.

I don't know man, it seems to me that the main reason loads more people aren't getting involved is simply because they don't understand it. I too heard of bitcoin before this year, but I shrugged it off. It's not until you set aside some time to really understand how it works that you can fully appreciate the potential of this currency and its long term impact on society. Maybe we assume that others have a similar level of curiosity about technology/finance than us?

But you are right- they are content with their financial life now. And so was I, until I found out about bitcoin. I didn't see what was wrong with the status quo until I heard about bitcoin. Now, every time I see someone counting change I feel like I've stumbled into the 70s. Bitcoin truly does 'raise consciousness'.

[Biodom]

Good for you! 100% of my savings are in Bitcoin. Reckless, maybe, but it's such a piss poor small amount anyway, if it goes to nothing, so what, but if it does take off, I'll have a very tidy sum indeed. Risk is always relative. Everyone told me I was stupid to invest all my pension fund in Tesla 3 years ago at $20, when the fund was next to nothing, so if I lost it, who cared? I sold Tesla @ $250 and restructured the fund, retirement is looking much closer and better now and no one is laughing anymore  

Sometimes, caution is the biggest risk of all....

Unless you have an uncanny investment ability, this is a sure way to disaster. You lucked out on Tesla, but over many years or decades this tactic won't work.
One stock should NEVER be more than 20-25%, and even these are crazy high numbers.

back to bitcoin...again, it might work out, but if it does, 15-25% NOW will still be enough in 10-20 years.

[Biodom]

I actually have a serious point to make. I only discovered bitcoin three months ago, but I have spent many hours since reading a huge amount on the subject. I've done my very best to look at things objectively, and have listened to arguments from both sides. I have arrived at the conclusion that cryptocurrencies will, with absolute certainty, play a huge role in all our futures. It may not be with bitcoin- but it's looking increasingly likely that it will be with the crazy network effects, huge existing mining pool, and cryptocurrency 2.0 apps being built on top of it (counterparty for example).

Given the above, a bitcoin market cap of above $1trn is not only not unlikely, it seems to me that it's almost inevitable. So I have invested 75% of my life savings into it, and intend to hold it for years without spending a single satoshi. BUT WHY ISN'T EVERYONE ELSE DOING THE SAME!? Am I missing something? I can't help but think that I must be- the notion that I am right, and almost everyone else is wrong seems too good to be true.

I'm aware of the various cognitive biases which may be affecting my judgement, and have been careful not to forget the idea that 'The moment we want to believe something, we suddenly see all the arguments for it, and become blind to the arguments against it.' Yet even considering all these things, I still arrive at the inescapable conclusion that bitcoin is headed to very, very green pastures.

So I suppose the point of this post is to ask- am I missing something? Have I underestimated the chances of something going severely wrong, such as a major code fail? Could crypto simply 'fall out of fashion' and everyone goes back to fiat?

We are very similar. I knew about bitcoin a long time ago, since the first crash from $30. But I knew of it as fake money for illegal uses, and didn't care about it until this year. It's funny, really. I would've never got into bitcoin had I not come to China. With the firewall here, I couldn't really do much, so I went to find new ways for entertainment; I stumbled across an article I saved 5 years ago by fred wilson, and proceeded to read his blog. I wondered why a legit and reputable VC like him was so interested in this illegal fake money, so I started looking more and more into it. Now I'm pretty much convinced that it will succeed.

Then I ended up with the same questions as you. How come people aren't making big bets in this? Don't they want a chance at complete financial freedom? And I realized that they don't. Most people are content with their life now, even if they don't realize it. They think getting rich or whatever is just a dream and impossible, and stuff like that. And with their mindset, they'll never succeed. Even if bitcoin fails, if we believe we can succeed and really look for ways to do it, I'm sure it'll happen eventually. But when you give up beforehand, you've already lost the battle.

Why do you think that they didn't in the last year-year and a half?
One dude sold his deceased dad's house for bitcoin when bitcoin was $650. Massive losses so far.
Tim Draper bought 30K bitcoins at above $600-650...he has more where this came from, so it is OK.

[spiderbrain]

I think going over 50% is daft, but it's your money. Good call on Tesla. If you're heavily invested in crypto, you need to follow the technological and legal developments closely so you can get a bit of warning before the bottom falls out of the market because of unforeseen developments. Diversifying a little into other cryptos as they come out is wise, too, although you need to be able to understand what each new technology offers, not just get sucked into a sales parade.

Overall I agree with you, though, centrally created fiat currency is dead in the long term.

[futureofbitcoin]

@Biodom: Not saying no one did. But very few did. Even the vast majority of the people on this forum don't own all that many bitcoins, so it's not simply about people not understanding the potential of bitcoin. People are really adverse to risk. But they don't understand opportunity cost. There's a risk in not participating as well, and I think the potential loss of opportunity far outweighs the risk.

[Q7]

Given the above, a bitcoin market cap of above $1trn is not only not unlikely, it seems to me that it's almost inevitable. So I have invested 75% of my life savings into it, and intend to hold it for years without spending a single satoshi. BUT WHY ISN'T EVERYONE ELSE DOING THE SAME!? Am I missing something? I can't help but think that I must be- the notion that I am right, and almost everyone else is wrong seems too good to be true.

Well for me I'm prepared to do that (investing money which I can afford to lose) but just like everyone else I'm still waiting for the right time. The fact is that price have been moving up and down for the past few months and i think right now, buying in whenever there is a dip might be a good idea. The question is, if only I knew which is the bottom level and if I know that, I'll definitely go with it.

[btcjoin14]

The price went as high as $1100 , but only for a short while. So actually at this moment buying is
a good idea

[Amph]

i don't think so, it was more of a lottery when there was the big bubble of 1200, now the price is tanked so much that we can call the bottom more easily, it look stable

"BUT WHY ISN'T EVERYONE ELSE DOING THE SAME!?"

adoption need bitcoin movement, buy/sell is healthy for the price, big site like coinbase are the one who is selling the most, which is good, it mean the adoption is increasing

[guybrushthreepwood]

Given the above, a bitcoin market cap of above $1trn is not only not unlikely, it seems to me that it's almost inevitable. So I have invested 75% of my life savings into it, and intend to hold it for years without spending a single satoshi. BUT WHY ISN'T EVERYONE ELSE DOING THE SAME!? Am I missing something? I can't help but think that I must be- the notion that I am right, and almost everyone else is wrong seems too good to be true.

Many people are doing this. Some have invested their entire life savings into bitcoin. Personally, I think bitcoin does have a very strong possibility to become very successful and break into mainstream acceptance thus the value rising considerably, but this is not guranteed. I've invested a few thousand into bitcoin but only an amount I can afford to lose and I'm holding that for the long term whilst trying to earn bitcoin in other ways. I believe in bitcoin but the question is will everybody else?