encouraging signs of normality

[pleaseexplain]

The more signs there are about bitcoin being normal the more acceptance and uptake will be so even here in far off New Zealand our local prediction market (called ipredict) now lists bitcoin along with other currencies as ones that you can predict where the price will go in different time periods.
I have posted in the speculation forum how it works etc but thought the fact it now exists (after asking for it since 2013) is worth recording here in the general forum  - all we need now is for bitcoin to be seen as boring (2018?) and it will be fully mainstream. 

[Q7]

Depends on how one looks at it. Generally, less traded volume will also mean less price movement and when that happens, I supposed that also mean lower volatility that will eventually lead to price being more stable. When we say stable, it doesn't mean that price will not move at all but probably the rise or dip will be at slower pace. And maybe at that time, when businesses see there is a stability, it will somehow help towards mainstream adoption.

[pleaseexplain]

Depends on how one looks at it. Generally, less traded volume will also mean less price movement and when that happens, I supposed that also mean lower volatility that will eventually lead to price being more stable. When we say stable, it doesn't mean that price will not move at all but probably the rise or dip will be at slower pace. And maybe at that time, when businesses see there is a stability, it will somehow help towards mainstream adoption.

I might have been abit confusing with my post. by normal i meant a prediction market that trades in NZ dollars has now added bitcoin along with the price of gold and the price of petrol as things you can speculate on. ie it is saying to people bitcoins are normal just like gold etc. Just like if someone opens up a bitcoin atm - it all helps to make bitcoin more normal and hopefully increase acceptance/use. Note you do not actually buy and sell bitcoins or gold etc just they match your prediction (bet) with someone elses who thinks the opposite.

eg the current prediction is where at the end of the month will bitcoin be between $200 and $300? at present people are prepared to spend lots of 65c to potentially get $1 for every 65c - their return will be in a range as follows  

if $200 or less   -100% (lose all their money)
if $220           -69.23% (lose most)
if $280            23.08% (modest gain)
if $300 or more   53.85% (max gain)

if you think it will go down ie below $265 you can short for 35c per time
and the return will be in the range of
if $200 or less     +85% (maximum gain from each 35c)  and
if $300 or more    -100% (lose all )

regards

[uki]

Depends on how one looks at it. Generally, less traded volume will also mean less price movement and when that happens, I supposed that also mean lower volatility that will eventually lead to price being more stable. When we say stable, it doesn't mean that price will not move at all but probably the rise or dip will be at slower pace. And maybe at that time, when businesses see there is a stability, it will somehow help towards mainstream adoption.

If Bitcoin wants to see a stable and sustainable price rise, it must focus on the adoption. For now we had two big bubbles based purely on speculation, money coming from illegal(semi-legal) businesses and exchange scams. That may give fuel for one more bubble but that would be end of Bitcoin. Nevertheless, I agree, we already see positive signs of development going in the positive direction. It will take much longer than in case of the first two bubbles, but if we stay consistently on that road, sooner or later, the price would move higher.

[AtheistAKASaneBrain]

Depends on how one looks at it. Generally, less traded volume will also mean less price movement and when that happens, I supposed that also mean lower volatility that will eventually lead to price being more stable. When we say stable, it doesn't mean that price will not move at all but probably the rise or dip will be at slower pace. And maybe at that time, when businesses see there is a stability, it will somehow help towards mainstream adoption.

If Bitcoin wants to see a stable and sustainable price rise, it must focus on the adoption. For now we had two big bubbles based purely on speculation, money coming from illegal(semi-legal) businesses and exchange scams. That may give fuel for one more bubble but that would be end of Bitcoin. Nevertheless, I agree, we already see positive signs of development going in the positive direction. It will take much longer than in case of the first two bubbles, but if we stay consistently on that road, sooner or later, the price would move higher.

For mainstream massive adoption to happen there needs to be a need for people to use and own BTC. To get there, we either get it by making it viral and cool to use "just because", or else it will take people getting fucked by banks for them to see the real necessity of BTC (im talking about the average joes, which don't pay any attention to economics).

[MF Doom]

Depends on how one looks at it. Generally, less traded volume will also mean less price movement and when that happens, I supposed that also mean lower volatility that will eventually lead to price being more stable. When we say stable, it doesn't mean that price will not move at all but probably the rise or dip will be at slower pace. And maybe at that time, when businesses see there is a stability, it will somehow help towards mainstream adoption.

If Bitcoin wants to see a stable and sustainable price rise, it must focus on the adoption. For now we had two big bubbles based purely on speculation, money coming from illegal(semi-legal) businesses and exchange scams. That may give fuel for one more bubble but that would be end of Bitcoin. Nevertheless, I agree, we already see positive signs of development going in the positive direction. It will take much longer than in case of the first two bubbles, but if we stay consistently on that road, sooner or later, the price would move higher.

For mainstream massive adoption to happen there needs to be a need for people to use and own BTC. To get there, we either get it by making it viral and cool to use "just because", or else it will take people getting fucked by banks for them to see the real necessity of BTC (im talking about the average joes, which don't pay any attention to economics).

I think (especially europeans) are seeing the reality of banking instability, and how it can directly effect them/their money.  This may be a huge factor in btc becoming mainstream, that is if the infrastructure can handle it!

[5970]

btc is just biding its time. there'll always be ups and downs.

[uki]

Depends on how one looks at it. Generally, less traded volume will also mean less price movement and when that happens, I supposed that also mean lower volatility that will eventually lead to price being more stable. When we say stable, it doesn't mean that price will not move at all but probably the rise or dip will be at slower pace. And maybe at that time, when businesses see there is a stability, it will somehow help towards mainstream adoption.

If Bitcoin wants to see a stable and sustainable price rise, it must focus on the adoption. For now we had two big bubbles based purely on speculation, money coming from illegal(semi-legal) businesses and exchange scams. That may give fuel for one more bubble but that would be end of Bitcoin. Nevertheless, I agree, we already see positive signs of development going in the positive direction. It will take much longer than in case of the first two bubbles, but if we stay consistently on that road, sooner or later, the price would move higher.

For mainstream massive adoption to happen there needs to be a need for people to use and own BTC. To get there, we either get it by making it viral and cool to use "just because", or else it will take people getting fucked by banks for them to see the real necessity of BTC (im talking about the average joes, which don't pay any attention to economics).

we are not that far from the increased adoption, actually. We can very soon see that happening, provided that recently there is quite a mess with the current banking system. Even the ol' Bank of England noticed the importance of Bitcoin.

[Bytty]

We may see a bitcoin rush by EU citizens, interest rates don't go lower than 0% because that's not permitted.

Banks have cheap money from ECB, they don't need depositors money.

[okthen]

We need a period (and a long one) of bitcoin being the OMG thing worldwide for adoption to really spread. That would bring us the last epic bubble, where bitcoin will jump to the maximum ATH.
Then comes boring bitcoin, when everyone just uses it and knows it, and a coin costs a mere $100000

[HarmonLi]

The perception definitely gets better. But as long as there still are headlines saying that Bitcoin filed for bankruptcy... well I guess there's still a lot to be learned for the regular person not _yet_ into Bitcoin

[uki]

The thing is that Bitcoin got a bit more 'immune' to the bad news, recently. BTER news didn't do that much harm. Drug-dealing site either. That may mean we are done with the bear market, but that does also not mean we will start to rise. we are now in the no-man's land.

[HarmonLi]

The thing is that Bitcoin got a bit more 'immune' to the bad news, recently. BTER news didn't do that much harm. Drug-dealing site either. That may mean we are done with the bear market, but that does also not mean we will start to rise. we are now in the no-man's land.

Umm the drug-dealing site pushed us down 20%, actually. We were around $290 and when the news came out we took 3 deep crashes down to $250... People are still speculating whether it was the news or really coins being sold somewhere...

[uki]

The thing is that Bitcoin got a bit more 'immune' to the bad news, recently. BTER news didn't do that much harm. Drug-dealing site either. That may mean we are done with the bear market, but that does also not mean we will start to rise. we are now in the no-man's land.

Umm the drug-dealing site pushed us down 20%, actually. We were around $290 and when the news came out we took 3 deep crashes down to $250... People are still speculating whether it was the news or really coins being sold somewhere...

well, such news one year ago would cause way much harm. If you look at the Bitcoin price since the start of the year, we are doing quite fine, despite all these potentially bad news. 20% down is a healthy correction, not a crash though. At least not from my longer-term perspective.

[HarmonLi]

The thing is that Bitcoin got a bit more 'immune' to the bad news, recently. BTER news didn't do that much harm. Drug-dealing site either. That may mean we are done with the bear market, but that does also not mean we will start to rise. we are now in the no-man's land.

Umm the drug-dealing site pushed us down 20%, actually. We were around $290 and when the news came out we took 3 deep crashes down to $250... People are still speculating whether it was the news or really coins being sold somewhere...

well, such news one year ago would cause way much harm. If you look at the Bitcoin price since the start of the year, we are doing quite fine, despite all these potentially bad news. 20% down is a healthy correction, not a crash though. At least not from my longer-term perspective.

Back in 2013 SilkRoad 1 went down, and the price crashed. It immediately recovered and we started our way up to $1200 soon after. Thing is... we're in this pattern right now where we could bounce off of the long-term resistance, again. Which would be really bad. We're still up from mid-January, yes, but the indicators are turning red, as we speak, unfortunately!