[Mpex.co] The Scientology of Bitcoin Finance?

[Duffer1]

I'm bored.  Can we keep this one going a little longer please?

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[Akka]

Year. To few soap opera threats on here.

[Peter Lambert]

I'm bored.  Can we keep this one going a little longer please?

So with the price of 0.001 btc/share and 1 billion shares that is a total price of 1000000 btc. With a profit of 136.5 btc for the month of December, extrapolated to 12 months (yes I know I could go back and add up all the profits for the last year, but that would give a different number) gives an annual earnings of 1638 btc. So the current P/E is 1000000/1638 for a P/E of 610.5.

Typical P/E values for companies listed on fiat based exchanges are in the order of about 5 to 20. Does it make sense for S.MPOE to have such a high P/E as compared to other types of stocks?

[kakobrekla]

I'm bored.  Can we keep this one going a little longer please?

So with the price of 0.001 btc/share and 1 billion shares that is a total price of 1000000 btc. With a profit of 136.5 btc for the month of December, extrapolated to 12 months (yes I know I could go back and add up all the profits for the last year, but that would give a different number) gives an annual earnings of 1638 btc. So the current P/E is 1000000/1638 for a P/E of 610.5.

Typical P/E values for companies listed on fiat based exchanges are in the order of about 5 to 20. Does it make sense for S.MPOE to have such a high P/E as compared to other types of stocks?

Maybe a more representative number www.btcalpha.com/mpex/stocks/s-mpoe/

[Peter Lambert]

I'm bored.  Can we keep this one going a little longer please?

So with the price of 0.001 btc/share and 1 billion shares that is a total price of 1000000 btc. With a profit of 136.5 btc for the month of December, extrapolated to 12 months (yes I know I could go back and add up all the profits for the last year, but that would give a different number) gives an annual earnings of 1638 btc. So the current P/E is 1000000/1638 for a P/E of 610.5.

Typical P/E values for companies listed on fiat based exchanges are in the order of about 5 to 20. Does it make sense for S.MPOE to have such a high P/E as compared to other types of stocks?

Maybe a more representative number www.btcalpha.com/mpex/stocks/s-mpoe/

Okay, they get 125 for the P/E. That is still extremely high.

[ex-trader]

Okay, they get 125 for the P/E. That is still extremely high.

It's also based on a chart of incomes that shows long-term declines in income. Historic incomes are flattered by people making big bets when Bitcoin was cheap ie small USD volume. As BTC jumped 10x in recent months guess what volumes declined from hundreds per quarter to hundreds per month.

I would still say it's not a 'scam' since no-one is pushing the shares, however anyone choosing to buy at these levels is paying a very high price IMHO.

[Peter Lambert]

Okay, they get 125 for the P/E. That is still extremely high.

It's also based on a chart of incomes that shows long-term declines in income. Historic incomes are flattered by people making big bets when Bitcoin was cheap ie small USD volume. As BTC jumped 10x in recent months guess what volumes declined from hundreds per quarter to hundreds per month.

I would still say it's not a 'scam' since no-one is pushing the shares, however anyone choosing to buy at these levels is paying a very high price IMHO.

There are two types of companies with high P/E values: companies in bubbles or companies that have great potential for growth. If MPEx someday becomes the equivalent of the NYSE, then the current price might be a great bargain. If MPEx stays about what it is now, then eventually the share price will go down by a factor of 10 or more.

[kakobrekla]

Okay, they get 125 for the P/E. That is still extremely high.

It's also based on a chart of incomes that shows long-term declines in income. Historic incomes are flattered by people making big bets when Bitcoin was cheap ie small USD volume. As BTC jumped 10x in recent months guess what volumes declined from hundreds per quarter to hundreds per month.

I would still say it's not a 'scam' since no-one is pushing the shares, however anyone choosing to buy at these levels is paying a very high price IMHO.

There are two types of companies with high P/E values: companies in bubbles or companies that have great potential for growth. If MPEx someday becomes the equivalent of the NYSE, then the current price might be a great bargain. If MPEx stays about what it is now, then eventually the share price will go down by a factor of 10 or more.

With a good enough WOT rating you can short that motherfucker.

[Peter Lambert]

Okay, they get 125 for the P/E. That is still extremely high.

It's also based on a chart of incomes that shows long-term declines in income. Historic incomes are flattered by people making big bets when Bitcoin was cheap ie small USD volume. As BTC jumped 10x in recent months guess what volumes declined from hundreds per quarter to hundreds per month.

I would still say it's not a 'scam' since no-one is pushing the shares, however anyone choosing to buy at these levels is paying a very high price IMHO.

There are two types of companies with high P/E values: companies in bubbles or companies that have great potential for growth. If MPEx someday becomes the equivalent of the NYSE, then the current price might be a great bargain. If MPEx stays about what it is now, then eventually the share price will go down by a factor of 10 or more.

With a good enough WOT rating you can short that motherfucker.

I don't think anybody has rated my WOT account. And I would not want to short it right now, I think it will grow, and the current investors seem to be patient enough to keep waiting for it to get bigger.

[jimmothy]

How can a stock with 14,000btc in dividends (and likely to decrease due to increasing value of btc) be worth 1,000,000 btc or about 1/10th of all bitcoins.

Simply ridiculous if you ask me.

Even if mpex became the default stock exchange with a shitload of stocks how can it reach a value of 1/10th all bitcoins?

Besides the fact that mpex was designed to take money from noobs, how can anyone explain the current value?

[Peter Lambert]

How can a stock with 14,000btc in dividends (and likely to decrease due to increasing value of btc) be worth 1,000,000 btc or about 1/10th of all bitcoins.

Even if mpex became the default stock exchange with a shitload of stocks how can it reach a value of 1/10th all bitcoins?

You do realize that there can be things worth more than all bitcoins, right?

[jimmothy]

How can a stock with 14,000btc in dividends (and likely to decrease due to increasing value of btc) be worth 1,000,000 btc or about 1/10th of all bitcoins.

Even if mpex became the default stock exchange with a shitload of stocks how can it reach a value of 1/10th all bitcoins?

You do realize that there can be things worth more than all bitcoins, right?

Not if you want to sell it for bitcoins..

Fun fact: asicminer with 200k btc dividends past year is evaluated at 200k btc

mpex.co with 14k in dividends is valued at 1,000k btc

How can a dying company which has less than 1/10th asicminers profits be worth more than 5 times asicminer.

Does that make it 50 times more expensive than asicminer based on dividends alone?

Do you honestly think mpoe will pay out a significant percentage of share price in dividends over the next year or two? My guess is it doesn't even pay out 1% (or 10k btc) in the next year.

Who knows maybe some extremely rich idiots will join and blow a few thousand btc gambling. Doubt it though since the increasing cost of joining is going to exclude potential customers (idiots) from joining.

[NanoAkron]

Jimmothy, you're dead on the money.

Any company that thinks it's worth 1/12th the total money supply of an economy is either lying or delusional.

[Atruk]

How can a stock with 14,000btc in dividends (and likely to decrease due to increasing value of btc) be worth 1,000,000 btc or about 1/10th of all bitcoins.

Even if mpex became the default stock exchange with a shitload of stocks how can it reach a value of 1/10th all bitcoins?

You do realize that there can be things worth more than all bitcoins, right?

Not if you want to sell it for bitcoins..

Fun fact: asicminer with 200k btc dividends past year is evaluated at 200k btc

mpex.co with 14k in dividends is valued at 1,000k btc

How can a dying company which has less than 1/10th asicminers profits be worth more than 5 times asicminer.

Does that make it 50 times more expensive than asicminer based on dividends alone?

Do you honestly think mpoe will pay out a significant percentage of share price in dividends over the next year or two? My guess is it doesn't even pay out 1% (or 10k btc) in the next year.

Who knows maybe some extremely rich idiots will join and blow a few thousand btc gambling. Doubt it though since the increasing cost of joining is going to exclude potential customers (idiots) from joining.

I have to question your assumptions as to which venture is they dying one and which is the growing one.

[kakobrekla]

Yes because PE is the only number that matters.

Yes because its not the market that forms the price, the company just makes it up.

Yes because idiots are rich because they do not know how to handle monies.

[jimmothy]

How can a stock with 14,000btc in dividends (and likely to decrease due to increasing value of btc) be worth 1,000,000 btc or about 1/10th of all bitcoins.

Even if mpex became the default stock exchange with a shitload of stocks how can it reach a value of 1/10th all bitcoins?

You do realize that there can be things worth more than all bitcoins, right?

Not if you want to sell it for bitcoins..

Fun fact: asicminer with 200k btc dividends past year is evaluated at 200k btc

mpex.co with 14k in dividends is valued at 1,000k btc

How can a dying company which has less than 1/10th asicminers profits be worth more than 5 times asicminer.

Does that make it 50 times more expensive than asicminer based on dividends alone?

Do you honestly think mpoe will pay out a significant percentage of share price in dividends over the next year or two? My guess is it doesn't even pay out 1% (or 10k btc) in the next year.

Who knows maybe some extremely rich idiots will join and blow a few thousand btc gambling. Doubt it though since the increasing cost of joining is going to exclude potential customers (idiots) from joining.

I have to question your assumptions as to which venture is they dying one and which is the growing one.

I consider the one which had no revenue last quarter besides registration fees to be dieing. (Wasn't asicminer)

The one which is a few months away from releasing an actual product may or may not do well but at least they have a source of revenue other than gamblers and registration fees.


Take a look at these nice graphs http://www.btcalpha.com/mpex/stocks/s-mpoe/

[lobbes]

I consider the one which had no revenue last quarter besides registration fees to be dieing. (Wasn't asicminer)

The one which is a few months away from releasing an actual product may or may not do well but at least they have a source of revenue other than gamblers and registration fees.


Take a look at these nice graphs http://www.btcalpha.com/mpex/stocks/s-mpoe/

Those graphs show that registration fees aren't the primary source of cash flow, its the options market making activities.

Gambling is also very profitable industry, and BitBet seems to be holding its own; pulling in some high volume wagers over its history. The question remains whether that security and the options market making is enough to keep MPEx profitable in the long-run.

MPEx may be overvalued, but I don't see it as a scam by any means. Everything is very transparent, as well.

[jimmothy]

I consider the one which had no revenue last quarter besides registration fees to be dieing. (Wasn't asicminer)

The one which is a few months away from releasing an actual product may or may not do well but at least they have a source of revenue other than gamblers and registration fees.


Take a look at these nice graphs http://www.btcalpha.com/mpex/stocks/s-mpoe/

Those graphs show that registration fees aren't the primary source of cash flow, its the options market making activities.

Gambling is also very profitable industry, and BitBet seems to be holding its own; pulling in some high volume wagers over its history. The question remains whether that security and the options market making is enough to keep MPEx profitable in the long-run.

MPEx may be overvalued, but I don't see it as a scam by any means. Everything is very transparent, as well.

Q4 total profit = 938btc
Total profit from new users = 820btc

You are totally right that being overvalued does not make anything a scam. Having a business model which requires recruiting new gamblers/investors to pay 30btc registration fees as a major source of revenue is a scam.

Gambling is a very profitable industry as you said but I see no reason there can't be options/futures without a 30btc fee and the loads of bullshit that comes along with mpex.

Just for fun lets compare mpex.co to just-dice

Last year net profit: ~14,000btc vs 13,000btc
Total evaluation: 1,000,000btc vs 37,000btc
Profit split: 85% goes to owner 15% to investors vs 10% owner and 90% investors
Registration fees: 30btc vs 0btc
Blog fees: 0.01btc vs 0btc
PR fees: 12btc vs 0btc

Also bitbet doesn't seem to be holding its own. 150btc profit past year and 7200btc evaluation @ a whopping 2% apr. Not sure who buys this shit.

[Duffer1]

It has been repeated several times by PR that the cost of entry is there to specifically keep people out.  The insult she intended was obvious, but it was more than a simple insult; see past it to the fact she was being literal.  Apparently they don't want the patronage of those who don't understand it and/or can't afford it.

Edit:
I like that you've noted PR's fees.  Mircea Popescu is paying a considerable amount of money, monthly, for your education.  Please have a little respect.

[jimmothy]

It has been repeated several times by PR that the cost of entry is there to specifically keep people out.  The insult she intended was obvious, but it was more than a simple insult; see past it to the fact she was being literal.  Apparently they don't want the patronage of those who don't understand it and/or can't afford it.

Edit:
I like that you've noted PR's fees.  Mircea Popescu is paying a considerable amount of money, monthly, for your education.  Please have a little respect.

Explain to me why the fee to keep people out was only 200 usd a year ago? Surely that wouldn't keep anyone out so its obvious it is just a method of revenue.

I hope you are not serious when you say mpoe pr is paid monthly to educate. Mpoe pr is nothing more than a troll who is paid to spam links directing people to mpex/blog.

Seriously anyone who buys in to this shit is dilusional. Mpex.co is the scientology of bitcoin.