Bitcoin Forum

Hi everyone,

I trade bitcoin for a living because I firmly believe that being self sufficient is one of the most important things a person can do.
I will put my opinions about the market here, and I will try to identify the positive and negative developments.


Always remember:
- Plan your trade, and trade your plan. If you fail to plan, you are planning to fail.
- Buy low, sell high.
- Every time you win, someone else loses.
- There is only one bottom line in trading and that bottom line is how much money you make.
- This is one of the most stressful jobs on earth. You have stress every single second. Not everybody can survive.
- Any technical indicator is really just a fancy moving average.
- The moment you start to believe you are invincible is likely the moment before you are about to take a beating.
- The market has a paddle big enough to give anyone a spanking.
- Trading is not supposed to be entertainment.

Bottom of what? This push? I'll agree with that

Agreed! This could be the bottom and startingpoint of a megarally.

We're very far from the real bottom, $215 is at best good for a $15-20 dead cat bounce imo. I personally think the real bottom will be reached somewhere within 2 months from now between $80 and $160. $130 looks like a pretty safe bet to me, I am planning to close my short around there and buy a lot of coins (no margin) for the long term.

There will be no bottom in 2015. BTC is falling and falling and falling.  You were all trapped by bulltards ( except RyNinDaCleM he was bearish all the time and is smart )

You can plan to close your short when you want. But if the price rises then you will close it when the market decides :)

Pah. We'll see where we're at in 2020. Until then it's all day to day noise. I'll start to sweat when every last big gun tried and failed to get things rolling and then slunk away.

The bottom is more like in $150. The price will fall in the following days, you should just wait a couple day until the price hits bottom. The price is in downtrend at the moment and will probably go down.

how much did u bought till now?

I use proper risk management of course, but the price is very unlikely to rise up to the point where I would close my short. If it does happen I won't complain, as I'm still holding most of my coins untouched in cold storage. My short is working quite well as a hedge for me. :)

It could be, but it's not :(

Nice one. :)

we might see some panic selling shortly, if not then this is the bottom.

the next 24 hours really are critical

Adam, guy with your experience already knows, that bottom (or top) never happens on miniscule volume. So this is not bottom, unless we see massive buy impulse.

My stupid chart (based on onchain volume vs exchange rate) says you and OP are spot on (with a possible short dip in the high 100s). Yet the high volume for a bottom isn't there, and our brightest EW chartists are bearish.

 ???

We are nowhere near 'the bottom'  ;D

Very far from the bottom IMHO  ;)


And by "bottom" I mean a flash crash event that is gonna trigger a short term long opportunity (pumps for a few months, like $340, $275, $150) for the ones inclined, whether it will give rise to a more sustainable rally or crash again after a few months is another story.

This needs to go to 100s or double digits first. My personal target is $75-$85, but we'll know the bottom when we get there  ;)


If by "bottom" you simply mean that it will pump for a few days/one or two weeks before the next plunge, that's possible, but it's not my thing to play these little movements  :P


Can I take a look?  ;D

Here we are again with the "we reach the bottom"
how many times did we reach the bottom? :)

quite a few times but this is it guys the real bottom !!!

Of course it is  ::)

bottom or not, i bought today at around $220 which seems like a very good price if you ask me. can't see it going below $200 as buy support looks strong.

Good luck to everybody! Lets hope for a MEGARALLY!!  :D`

New bottom now in at $214, this is surely the cheapest price anyone will ever pay for a Bitcoin ever again.

buy support looks strong at 200$? What makes you say that?

we need a little correction upwards and then the real slaughter begins at sub 200$

Im a bull.

But now this is the BOTTOM bottom!
So who wants to REALLY speculate? What will the price be in 1 week, 1 month?

Lower and lower yet?

Did you just sell your account?


:P

I forgot to add the  ::)

Bottom is far from in.

Your going to wish you didn't buy.

Agreed: this is going to be messy in the short term. I expect major downward movement within days to 2 weeks. It only takes one whale at this point. One to start the chain reaction.

Ok, let me ask you guys since you seem knowledgeable. What is the point where people actually want to buy, like people who know of bitcoin but don't own any. Also what is the point where it gets too low? Just something I've wondered about, it all seems very delicate.

For me, this is just me being nice trying to help people make a profitable trade.
I don't really care whether people follow. Price is at $222 now. Happy trading!

Well I'm sure people are thankful for advice, I was just curious. Like if it hit say $150 would it be good or bad for the bitcoin economy, not for specific investors. Obviously if you bought at 1200 and it was at 150 it would be bad for you, but would it spark more interest for the people who weren't willing to cough up say 250-300 dollars. Sorry if I'm being confusing haha.

Hey its going back up!  :)

If the guy who bought at $1200 holds for a couple of years, you never know.
He might still end up with a decent profit.

At lowest probably hit around $100, and then go back up.

Anything beyond lower then $100, is just a collapse of bailing on the coin seeing most people decide on a emotional state then the technology what it stands for.

Like daytraders who scalp, also have a price effect as well. But, think about realistic long term, its much needed like people who want to send money in phillpines for example are saving costs then using western union.

I think we will see some major problems if it drops below $200. Most miners out there will not be able to make a profit below $200 and a lot will have to be shut off. Until the difficulty readjusts transactions will then take forever to confirm. We got a small taste of this last time.

215$ might be a chance to escape, anyway the Chinese stock market are firing now, it's much more profitable than trading(investing) Bitcoin.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
This.

Chinese are selling btc like crazy so they can buy stocks. It is the reverse of the 2013 bubble that saw Chinese driving up btc price to 1200. We are looking at btc going down to 120 in the next following days.

Oh sure sure.  Yet another 'bottom' huh?  Let's see if this holds true a week or two from today.

People like you told us at $1200, we will soon see $3000 while it was quite obvious we were building a plateau back then.

I smell to much bearishness in this forum, while some weeks ago there was way to much bullishness. For now, I stick to my sideway outlook.

people will keep lowering the exchange rate at this rate..  >:( >:( Have to fix up how they think about rush selling and buying.

We exactly touched the supportline from $2 to $150.

https://i.imgur.com/zHMYVJQ.png

it has been said many time, that it was willy bot, an hacker that hacked gox and start pumping the price to cash out in a second phase a big amount, and causing the current enormous drop

personally i'll not be touched by these swings, still holding

agreed mate ill be holding to the end too :D which will hopefully not be messy lol :D

Market seems afraid to buy even though we are severely oversold already.
I believe the opportunity to buy into a favorable position is now.

I will buy more when it reaches $150.

Why everyone thinks that bitcoin rates going down ? :o
Seems like its going up slowly not down  ::)

It is still going to dump, i must agree that the real bounce will be at 100-150.

I feel like you guys trying to bring up panic  :-\
Seems like its going up and up (already $237)
But i'm still scared because of you guys D:

i sold yesterday, still waiting for it to decrease, way too much panic in markets to buy my whole pot back. Waiting patiently.

if i sell my coins right now, then I'll lose $30-$55 per coin  :-[

fuck, if only my loss was that low.

well, about $1k is big loss for me  :(

You could possibly loose much more, if you don't sell now, but are not able to hold until 2017+!

I tried to draw a comparison of sentiment (perfect case study is this forum from august 2011 to november 2011), hashpower (we are still growing!) and chart patterns between 2011 and 2014/2015

I come to the conclusion, that we could have seen merely the first half of the correction, which took us 15 month, while back in 2011 it only took us 3 month. If one is assuming that the 2011 bubble is somehow unfolding again only lasting around 5 times longer. We would not see $200+ until the beginning of 2017! The price could go as low as $60 and swing around $100 for a long time. Personally I feel like it is not worth taking the risk to sell all my stash, even if I could tripple my bitcoin holdings, if this folds out as suggested.

https://i.imgur.com/2a4c6Bs.png

Time to buy some more to average dollar cost to lower :) whats the alternative sell to in the hope to rebuy cheaper? fk that.

to be honest, i have no idea what to do..
I earned my 20BTC hardly while it's was about $285/BTC
Currently waiting for some higher ranked user to confirm if its good idea to sell bitcoins now or keep them.

my target for this month is $250 if we then manage to stay above $250 we might see the price recover further. buy while it is still cheap. don't be too late.

Indeed. Indicators are showing bulls are coming in strong. If you don't get loaded right now with BTC you shall meet regret and desperation in the future. Enjoy.

Elaborate ? You think bitcoin rates will be going up or down?

Just like a month or so ago, when everyone was saying we'd blast straight through $300 on the way to the moon?

I think all goings up are so  temporary. Anyway in long term it's so going down

Many speak out how fantastic Bitcoin is so why the majority here concidders the value to be lower than current price?
Once we agree that todays price is too cheap the bullmarket will kick in and it will be relentless, no pullbacks to buy-in late.
Better hold some tight in wallet.

and this is why its in the speculation thread, howeveer the short term graphs are showing positive indicators :D who knows we may break $500 this year...

Btc will never go up to 300, ever again, let alone 500.

You are all going to lose everything when it goes DOWN to ZERO very soon. Don't say I didn't warn you.

That might still be the right diagnosis.
The next bull run might be right around the corner.  :)

Then feel free to get out of the btctalkforum now if you believe that the price will go to zero.

you said the same thing, ops i mean falling said the same thin when from 156, we raised again at 300

so no you are talking bullshit, recover is always possible, like a dump is always possible

no way! that all are illusions  ;D

Bottom at $215! What? What about the bottom we already saw somewhere about $180 ? This is a higher low as it stands

Unless we get below the green line the bottom has already been seen and it was well below 215

https://www.tradingview.com/x/akh0m6A0/

Shorts are already loading up for the next wave down.  $200 will most likely be tested

I'll be more than happy if it doesn't drop further. Currently it's like hanging on precariously to its position and if you observe the orderbook at exchangers, a lot of sell order is already in place putting the pressure with more downside expected.

Have a look at okcoin futures,  tons of shorting all day. 

Congrats on the several percent rake. The falling knife trading method has its perks.

If it drops into the one hundreds I will be buying them up like a madman.

101% sure this won't happen.

Nothing you can say with surety anything would be happened with BTC. Btc is very volatile currency, It may drop to even 10$. you cant say anything about the Price of BTC.

There are tons of fake orders to scare the naive away. Those whales are sure having fun with the volume of this down trend. My take is a low price for a couple months while they stack that cheap BTC.

The odds of breaking down to 180 is greater than 300 atm

well this is obvious, we are talking about -44,4 against +75.6, however how i see it is that the odds that bitcoin falls to sub 100 are lower than the probability to reach 500

Double digits can happen, but something would have to trigger it (something along the lines of a large hack).  I think worst case 125-133.  It all depends on how much ammo this bear whale has and where the stop losses are.

100% chance it will go down to double digits and eventually to Zero, because who's gonna buy sh*tty bitcoins when they are heading down, not even Chinese are crazy to do so. In fact I can guarantee you that everyone and their mother will panic sell every coin they have when bitcoin goes down to 80.

I thought fallling was banned?

Ok, give all you bitcoins. Oh, you don´t have cause you are poor?

wow someone was butthurt lol, Current Bitcoin prices seem pretty stable with the ranges holding for over 24 hours :D i predict hitting 235 by next week and the Geminin exchange may be released too :D

Where did you hear this?

And even buying now is a mistake.. You could always buy more and average down as the price drops.  You win either way.

I think your guess is as good as mine. Price does seem to be resilient and even on a default upwards movement, which is always interesting to see. Don't think that the new exchange opening will do anything remarkable to the price, though...

You need to show more confidence in your conviction. Nobody is going to believe somebody who is so unsure of themselves.

and seems you were right haha
it's have been $235-$236 for while now :D

Well, he/she said 'next week' and not tomorrow :D It's still far too early to tell what the current movements turn out to bet. It could be the beginning of a breakout of the falling wedge/triangle we're in since 2014 or just another bounce on our way into the $100s (which I honestly don't hope!!!)

o yeah true, he didn't say tomorrow :D
Hope so it keep going up and up ;)

well bottom wasn't 215 after all, but a bit less, around 208-207, if we keep staying for few days above that, we can say that the bottom is reached, and falling under 200 is unlikely already

While you are obsessed about this age old pumpcoin and its 10% fluctuations i made almost +100% on my shitcoin portfolio. Man, huge gains in alts these days. Bitcoin? WHY?! Ain't nobody got time for that!!!

then why bother to take time and write a useless post about bitcoin when you don't have time for it. good luck with your altcoin trades and stay in the altcoin section.

The price of bitcoin is quite steady recently. It is good for long term.

Recently = last 1 day?
There was a jump of almost $8 in a matter of minutes, just a couple of days back. :)

Another shitty FUD account.
There are multi millonaires in this ship. Do you really think Winklevoss, people with fortuness invested here and working hard to bring up solid, serious services like Gemini, are going to abandom ship? Lol.
We are on the winning ship, deal with it or cry later.

Unfortunately it isn't at all the current mini uptrend still lies perfectly within the long-term downtrend. We need a decided break out at this point in order to confirm the uptrend, otherwise we will continue sliding down for the time being. I'd like to see the price go up as well, But it isn'y a safe bet as of yet.

It really has become quite difficult to actually tell whether this is the bottom or not. Last week we've made a double bottom at $215, which could be a very good indicator, on the other hand we could very well be heading down from here as well. I like to think it is best to stay in the game without using any leverage.

Yeah jump and then going down again,big player try manupulation market

Ten days have passed and the bottom did hold:

https://i.imgur.com/kG7pO5d.png

Congratulations to everyone who managed to buy.

If we see 220's again this weekend I will try to buy more.
By next week we should aim for 260 with another push. Happy trading!

i think those who managed to help the bottom stay at 215, were the whales/average traders who dumped at 290 2-3 weeks ago

they did bought in mass supposedly... 200 level should be considered rock solid by now

I wouldn't count on that, actually. We could be in a bad downtrend, still. But this can't go on forever and at some point there will be a trend-reversal, and most of the bears do know that. It's just a matter of who gets burned in the end.

It's possible, but maybe that's exactly what they want you to think: "Oh this floor of 200 is now solid as diamond" then they pull their fake orders and you fall for the trap.

dump/pump?

That buy rally is too big to be made by a single whale in terms of volume. I think there was an example of how scared people is to miss the boat in a rally scenario and how quick things can skyrocket.

I agree.

200 could easily be breached and this cant go on forever, but bears have the advantage right now. When bitlicense comes out, its probably going to result into another coinbase/pump/trap fiasco

Funny,

Considering the chart part you took, you act upon a reversal candle which is merely 1 indication to go long here. While the overall trend isstil lvery bearish, you clearly have very low confluence to go long from that point on the long term. You need a very solid price action confirmation combined with key line and candle atleast to say in order for you to have a roughly 'standing edge'.

Enjoy :)

This.

We shall know in a few months.

Nope.  I am pretty sure of this.  Bitcoin can go to +1000 quick.  We have seen this.  Buy now.

It is still cheaper now than it was 2 days back.  :)

Market seems to be increasingly hesitant to go below $226/$228. It's still too early to pop the champagne, of course, but it's good to see that bears have an increasingly hard time at a point where a drop-off into the $150s would be expected. I would have thought that the market collapsed when someone dumped at this time.

Let's see how this night plays out. Huobi doesn't really want to follow the dumps on Finex, that's for sure. I think all the dumps today could have brought us to even lower levels if they happened on a different day. The market didn't really seem to care for the dumps. Bullish? I don't know... It's so hard to be bullish these days.

You are correct that's bullish.

The whales are dumping to cover the shorts. That's how they make money. The market is totally rigged. Only whales can make any money playing the game. If you are not a whale, you are screwed.

Maybe ￥200(or lower) will become a new normal soon.

I am beginnng to think this.  Sub $100 might be where we're going and stay there for a while.

Probably, I think think Bitcoin have made much progress in the last two years. It's still unknown to public.

its mean u want bitcoin under $100 in this week or month?

No.  Its mean that it will happen regardless of what you want to happen.

bitcoin is heading to 150-100 usd...don't be a fool sell now while there are still people to buy at $200+ usd!

it seems that whales are trying hard to push this baby under 200, to force bitcoin holders to dump their bag

who will continue to hold now will be the real winner, don't be fooled by the manipulation

If it is below $200, I will buy some.

same here. but i think buy support will maintain $200 if the dumps are not major. but there are always traders who intentionally dump a huge load of coins just to trigger panic reactions.

We will only see a bottom and reversal after the panic sell...that is how markets work..there is no point fighting it you might as well embrace the coming carnage  ;D

https://i.imgur.com/ifQHxHW.jpg

It is now the third or forth time BTC reaches this price level. I am not too bullish for now, but I interpret it as a sideway movement with ups and downs. May not be a bad time to buy.

Definitely a bad time to buy. Bitcoin's death march to zero continues.

My buy orders at $220 went through = successful weekend. ;D

I really doubt that $215 was the bottom. I'm not even sure that ~$160 was the bottom.

Although sentiment has turned more negative in recent weeks, it's still too positive to think of a bottom. We have yet to see true despair, that means people completely loosing their faith in Bitcoin and truly expecting it to fail.

So the bottom is in, when almost nobody expects it. But maybe there is no bottom... ;)

ya.ya.yo!

At this point from the looks $200 level has decent support, but if it goes below that we might see a tiny flash crash when stop loss orders get activated.

I am happily waiting for a few buy orders to get filled if so. But don't really think it will happen.

maybe its good when the btc falls... then he will raise up

If we can't stage a recovery from here and the previous bottom around 160, then my next interest zone would be between 32 and ~70. This, of course, assuming that it isn't surpassed by another crypto, in which case our escapologist might never emerge from its shackled coffin.

You should wait for another couple of weeks before declaring that.
If Bitcoin goes to $200, you might want to take that back.

Well things actually do look kinda gloomy around here and on /r/Bitcoin and /r/BitcoinMarkets. I admit, I don't know how dark they still need to get in order to call this true despair, but they aren't exactly bright right now. Can't we just go ahead and ban exchanges that allow shorting? :D

Its not the shorting that is killing btc it is the fundamentals...market sentiment...unrealistic expectations of the community being rethought, etc

lol sounds like he really want it happened, support bitcoin with buy it as much as you can with your strategy.

tokeweed is just fooling around and talking his books  ::). So the answer to your question is: when short yes, when long no.

all those things come because of the 1200 -200 dump, not for everything else, criminal/whale/miners/ they helped the dump but in small percentage, the real factor was that monstrous pump,  which brought the price to the current value

Drop, sideways, drop, sideways, drop, sideways, drop...

Bitcoin death march to zero continues.

Yes, people are depressed because of the price decline. But that's not true despair. The current mind set is like: "I can't understand why Bitcoin is valued so low given its great potential.".

People have to question the concept of Bitcoin in its entirety, so they give up on the belief that Bitcoin has any chance to succeed at all. The mind set must become: "What kind of brain damage made me investing in this shitty ponzi scheme? I'm a worthless idiot, gambling away all my money, receiving some virtually generated data created out of thin air. I hate myself.". ;D

ya.ya.yo!

People that get nervous because of the price will Not make it. If you are here looking at the price, if you are of that type of person that looks at bitcoinwisdom 24/7 you have no notions and you'll end up selling.

Id start buying when its $150 ish, but thats just me.

But, there are times like this I buy it in increments though so avoids the price loss.

If the trend is most people shorting its better to let the shorting settle then buy, or while its going down.

I think the real question we should be debating right now is where the top for this current rally on BTC-e is. The second buying spree seems to have come to an end now, but who's to say there won't be a third one? Which makes things even more bizarre: If it was someone with inside knowledge about BTC-e going down or being banned, why would they wait for a second rally? (Is the orderbook only filling back up that slowly?)

I guess the question is its been bleeding for a long time
The best strategy has been to short
When will the downward trend end and finally reverse is the real question.

to catch a falling knife?  ;)

Well if you caught it at the 800 price your bleeding
If it was at 420 your hand is hurt
280 was a bit of a pinch
215 Makes you wonder though well were almost half of 420 how low can we limbo :)

Well in case one is unsure, it is best to just stay out of the game until a real trend emerges and is being confirmed, subsequently. Right now nothing's confirmed, really. Even though things are looking positive again, we first need to cross some more resistance lines!

14 april was one of the last chances to buy that cheap. Great call, OP still actual.

yeah but now price still cheap in range $250-$260, everybody still have a time to buy it now before this to late guys

you can call every price range that we are in, a low price to buy as long as the future is not clear!
a couple of weeks back when the price was at 220 USD range i was always saying that this is a good time to buy since it is at a low level and was stable for long time. now that it has gone up i'd say it is late to buy cheep, you have to pay extra.
but if you believe that it can go up to $1000 again, you can consider this level cheep and buy now.

As long as bitcoin is used, any current price is reasonable.

Thank you for acknowledging my call. :)

At the same time I have to admit that I feel like we are overbought right now.
I would not be surprised if we see some profit taking soon.

I was 1 week early but this idea seems to unfold.

I'm aware that a lot of disciplined analysts predict higher prices to be coming up next. Based on the information currently at hand I do not agree.

This next move down should confirm whether the bear market is done for more than anything else.

Timing is everything. In fact many analysts now think Bitcoin is taking a break but the uptrend is still intact. Buy on dips or holding ain't bad. Never know where it's really gonna turn up again and you don't want to miss that ride to new all time highs.

As long as BTC is used widely, the price will go higher.

New bottom for now at $275. ;)

+1

Back to $300 by Sunday is one possible outcome.

We did see some serious dump attempts, however the sentiment has proven to be very bullish lately.

I hold on to my coins again.

Sitting at $280 dollars was a pinch in April but with sentiment and momentum its may be in the opposite polarity
Where there is a stabilizaton and support being built at this range and trying to consolidate.
Profit taking is to be had but at the same time I can see the market moving upwards for now we will need to look at what will happen although in my opinion this is an ok buy range (Pinch range) with some downside return where 215 was the current low and some good upside potential to the 420 support levels.

I think the emphasis on this post is what you say about greed. Greed is what I feel gets most traders to lose most all their profits from the beginning of Q1 to the point they spend the rest of the year trying to make it up. Sometimes, this causes even more greed which bites you in the ass.

Status: Buying and holding.

We are in the process of leaving the 270's for 280's!

Things are looking great for bitcoin holders. Support at $275 did hold, new bottom is in.
We have a high volume breakout while I type this. We are on our way again to 300's. Enjoy!

Status: Holding like a king.

just hope that we also stay over 300 this time.  :)

$430 is coming. Let's stay above that.

how many bitcoins are you guys holding? Do you even have 1? 5? 10? 20 even??? I don't have much myself but I'm just curious.

careful.. one becomes a target if people find out you have a bunch of btc.

Yes, amount of coins is probably something to keep to yourself.



As we didn't quite make 300 yet, I expect the price to come down from here.

Status: Selling some.

Further price decline is to be expected.

Status: Sold.

Yeah it looks pretty grim from here.
If we had broken 300 we could have stayed there for a bit and build some resistance. But hope is slowly fading in the community. People are starting to realize it's all a fad and they are holding unbacked VIRTUAL money in their bags.
I feel panic selling will soon commenced.

Hey aren't you that guy who sold his coins at 10$? I would call that pretty grim personally.

If the price stays below 300 for another month I will agree with you, atm it still looks like we are consolidating for a solid push over 300

I am just keeping all my dollars and coin where they are, pretty much all coins are going to trend down on average for the next few hours.
Thats only my opinion so don't quote me :-)

down to 250

No, we have very large buy orders starting from $275.
There seems to be some support now at $283 too.

Status: Buying back in.
(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $284)

yeah I think it is quite observed by how the price has been from the past 14-20 days. There are a lot of newbies who did not give up when there was a time of panic and that was a very bright move, I am so glad words of people here influenced people positively :P AI think I will also be investing a larger quantity after the halving is complete and people are done dumping their coins when their rally didn't happen :P

good call? people said to buy on 1000 dollars too as everyone was thinking that it will keep on rising and rising, though it dropped to 300 and less, the price is unstable and no one knows what the price will be tomorrow

The new bottom is slightly up from the previous bottom at $275 (retest?), with the big buy walls still up.
I believe we will comfortably break $290 again this week. And... we could see $400 within 2015. Yes, really.

Status: Holding, since my outlook is quite bullish.
(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $282.02)

I hope we could see much more than 400 within 2015. It's 5 months to go, and 5 months is very long term in bitcoinland. We used to have a rally every 7-8 months. :)

400 USD bitcoins in 2015 are certainly realistic. I am a HODLER & very bullish but I still like to try & stay realistic, I'm not a deluded idiot expecting 10,000 USD coins in the short term.

I think we could even reach 500 USD coins before the New Year but 400 is a pretty good, realistic target. I'll be disappointed if we don't break 400 before January 2016 to be honest.

the last long time of 220-250 range is telling me that 5 months can not be enough this time for something bigger than 400-500, if for every tiny move up, we need the same time frame to sustain it, then we can expect another big move toward 400 and that's it for 2015

i'm not talking about random pump that might occur in these 5 months

I don't want to sound like a "deluded idiot"(C) LFC_Bitcoin  :), but:

1. There are epochs in bitcoin. We had one-year downtrend. Now we have half-year consolidation. Then uptrend will start. I expect it to happen earlier than in 5 months.
2. People tend to expect tomorrow to be about the same as yesterday. We don't expect times to change. That's why people were over-optimistic during rally and are (IMO) over-pessimistic now. They expect for consolidation to go on forever. :)
3. Reward halving is one year away. It should cause price doubling. But the doubling won't happen overnight. It should start much earlier.
4. ETF. They cannot drag it forever. There are still chances (however slim :)) of it happening this year.

That's why I expect more than 30% up (i.e. $400) this year, although not necessarily ATH.

yes, I hope also. I'm really didn't like the bubble scenario and free fall. I'll be happy, if we will reach stabilized 400USD per BTC until end of this year.

I have been increasing my position this weekend.
Fortunately this was a good weekend to invest fresh money.

The market is oversold on multiple time frames, which should indicate a price increase to happen soon.

Status: Bought some good amounts at $268 and at $261.
(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $264.71)

Whew! I'm glad to hear that I'm not the only one that bought at $268.00.

Bottom is in at $250! The market is screaming oversold.
This went lower than I expected, which is not good. A bad month in trading for me.

Status: Holding onto my buys from $268, $261 and $256.
(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $250.05)

I really hope that you are right.  Too scared to buy, too scared to sell, feeling like a frog slowly being boiled. >:(

Today's low: 246.7

Over 20k was dumped but it recovered to 250 fast.

Today's low was under 200.

Depending on the exchange, I think only Bitfinex was actually under $200. Coinbase low was around $217.

Seeing $200 as the low for Coinbase, unless you mean the regular site and not the exchange. BTC-E, which usually has a lower price than the rest, surprisingly didn't go past $220.

It looks like $200 was an outlier, most of the sells were around the $218ish mark.

I didn't check the exchange during the big drop though, so I could be wrong and there were more sells. But from the chart it looks like just a small blip.

That was a surprise today, was not expecting to see it back at the low range of $210 even if it was a brief touch
Sitting at around $230 dollars now is not a great sign for upward movement but a potential sign of even further downward momentum
(That said bleeding aside it could stabalize again)

I increased my position again today...
Level of max pain is reached with a lot of FUD on the forums too, so $220 is a strong buy for me.

Some people are waiting for another flash crash at bitfinex.
These sort of events do not happen often. They will probably miss out on cheap coins.

The market is severely OVERSOLD at this time.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $219.50)

This is a triggered event due to the Chinese stock market tanking from all the leverage and margin calls
The fact its this strong of an effect in Bitcoin as well makes me wonder how strong the
BTC/CHN pair is not the BTC/USD pair
(Although to be fair all the big indexes were bleeding today)

I always wonder how people interpret this advice:


Ok, so now you buy some (regardless at which price levels) and you see the price dropping.

Following the advice to buy low, sell high would imply waiting until the price rises above your original buying level. This can be a *looong* wait (if ever) and might cause your losses to become substantial (up to 100%).

In theory, buy low sell high is great advice. In practice, not so much.

Well, then just buy HIGH and sell LOW, like most people on this forum do.

there is a good chance that no meaningful rally will take place for some time.

We either go side ways for a while or we slowly go downwards.

Block size issue needs to be resolved and done with before price can even attempt to go towards a new ATH or even $500 etc.

I do not believe we have reached the level of max pain yet.

I keep asking myself how we will break 300 again, since I do not see anyone willing to risk buying near the top.
But at the same time this floor established at 220's on multiple occasions seems somewhat solid too.

So, more sideways then I guess...

I will try and make the best out of trading this 220-250 range for now.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $231.30)

Somebody just posted exactly the same text at the Wall Observer thread  ;)

But I agree with you. For breaking out we need something BIG to happen. Like halving or COIN approved or Andresen renouncing XT  ;D

So we are now past this max pain level. People who bought at $200 and below are the real winners again.
Much like in January, we likely have already seen the new bottom.

My strategy: Buy and hold as much as one can afford. Best of luck to everyone that survived.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $234.55)

$220 And $300 have been important levels throughout 2015:
https://i.imgur.com/6RJRyj1.png

bottom is around $200. do not know if the price will break $300 in the near future.

this year is as good as wasted. i guess we'll stay bouncing between very low $200's and the higher $270's for the whole remaining year. can't see it going much higher or lower than i stated.

My analysis was pretty good:

https://i.imgur.com/GbRjHH7.png

And now is arguably a good time to sell.
The top is in at $308. This was a great trade.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $300.79)

Not 100% that was the top, just a ~$10 dump, we're still fighting at $300. We've been shooting up in price for a good amount recently, it was expected to dump over $300 at some point. If $300 can hold for a day, this isn't over.

The price is over $309. The volume is also quite good. We might see $350 by the end of the year. The rise could be due to Gemini effect.

So the rally went all the way up to $500. Incredible stuff. The trading volume has been insane, especially on Huobi and OKCoin.

Rumors are the triple M ponzi company was involved. I am not sure what to believe.
Anyway this price increase was definitely fueled by a lot of short positions getting liquidated on margin.

Going forward, I would suggest selling your coins while you are ahead:

https://i.imgur.com/jkvRiLF.png

Best of luck to everyone. Happy trading.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $370.48)

For shorters it could be a bad play.  I see decent sideways movement for awhile. 

There has been discussion recently that some Chinese investors are seeking out bitcoin as China's currency has struggled and the government has made it harder to move money out of the country.

Mr. Lee, CEO of Chinese Bitcoin Exchange BTCC, said he was not seeing much of those sorts of transactions. But he said he had seen signs that Chinese investors were using bitcoin to move money into an international investment scheme: MMM Global.

Sergey Mavrodi, founder of the MMM series of pyramid schemes, confirmed to the Financial Times that his projects are actively using bitcoin. Allegedly new members of MMM Global have to buy bitcoins to join the scheme.

Here is the interview with Mavrodi:
"I'm no crook," declares MMM scamster, while claiming credit for the Bitcoin price spike. (http://ftalphaville.ft.com/?p=2144388)

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $352.96)

It explains a lot. Shame really.

The $500 price was exciting.

So do I. I think the price will around $320 for about a month. The bitcoin price has risen too fast in the last 30 days. It is beter to consolidate before rising again.

would it be complicated for the forum moderators to auto delete any post that mentions "Ponzi" or "scheme" ???

That would be ideal.  It's just annoying more than anything.  Banker shills have been trying to connect bitcoin to a ponzi scheme since the very beginning.

I am feeling optimistic about the bitcoin price here. The 2015 resistance of ~$315 could have become the new support.
I am back in bitcoin at this time. My strategy: Buy and hold because we will break $350 soon. Best of luck.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $332.45)

Support at ~$310:

https://i.imgur.com/wmOmnr7.png

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $314.75)

Got any TA to back these 'feelings' up?

Word on the street is that 'Monster Support' is down in $200s.

did you know the Support at 50$ is Retardedly insane  :D

310 will probably hold

Question is, is demand for $300 Bitcoin retardedlz insane?

Have the Market Makers loaded up their wagons with enough BTC to dump at much higher prices....or do they want more, much cheaper?

come on 1000$ purely on entertainment value of buying/selling bitcoin

there isn't much selling going on, there dosnt need to be shit tones of buying either.

It is not uncommon to see a previous level of resistance change its role and become a new area of support.
This seems to be the case here when we broke the Jan-Oct 2015 resistance of ~$310 on Oct 29th.
Since then the bulls were able to keep the bitcoin price from slipping below this area on multiple occasions.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $320.06)

Yep...U called it......test of $300 zone seems to be bullishly resolved, with Bitcoin finally putting in a nice W double bottom at end of trading range.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/W1RLdWQn/

What are you targetting as the next resistance and/or short RLZ?

$370?

My analysis is mostly about quickly identifying good buying and selling opportunities as they arise.

For now I am not sure yet where to sell or go short, because this is the time to increase your positions in bitcoin.
However, you are right that $370 should become interesting. My last sell signal was at $370.48 (previous page).

I will update when I identify new developments! Best of luck to everyone.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $331.58)

New week, new money flowing in. On our way to $400.

https://i.imgur.com/MKhKCL0.png

Strong buy and sell signals on the simple moving average (12h).

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $376.57)

Does the steadily increasing bearish divergence on 1hr and 4hr charts not concern you?

https://www.tradingview.com/x/a8zjxHmI/

If Bitcoin is going to get to $400 on this move, then it is going to require a shit ton of retail investors stupid enough to gobble up $380+ sell walls, only to run into a barrage of selling pressure around $400 mark.

The thing about divergences on technical indicators is that they're all lagging in terms of displayed information. What looks like bearish divergence now may get destroyed, but there is no way of knowing until after the fact. The previous run up to ~$500 had a ton of bearish divergences along the way in those time frames, and they were blasted through. If the divergences currently fit the picture with other factors, I'd take them into consideration, but I wouldn't pay much attention _yet..

Yes, I agree. Particularly strong trends remain overbought or oversold for extended periods.
Bearish divergence could trick you into betting against the trend at the wrong time.

The price action is in a bullish channel. For now my exit strategy is at ~$350.
Good moment for buying and holding because we are aiming for higher prices.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $360.91)

Looks like the Bearish Divergence wins this time around.

Will we continue in this channel? I think something like this:

https://i.imgur.com/lPED4NX.png

Trading below that simple moving average is a strong sell in my opinion.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $352.55)

Momentum indicators are mixed. 1Hr mom suggests correction time. 4hr....more upside potential than down, but still potential for down side....1 Day mom, weighing heavily to the downside and that big run up we just had from $320s, had 1 Day mom at it's back the whole of the way.

I think Bitcoin has to go down further, before taking out the $385...

I am anticipating something like this:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Tew1bvSN/ (price in €uros as per Kraken)

If Bitcoin gets down into my day trade Long RLZ (green), then I will go long, up until my Short RLZ, and if/when BTC gets up there (or even a bit above), then I am hunting for shorts. If BTC plays out something along these lines, then your 12hr BB trend will remain intact, until it doesn't. If what I am envisaging plays out, then it will also make for a rather nasty Head & Shoulders formation on the chart......I anticipate a 'bottom' will be found somewhere down in the $330s.

At the moment, Bitcoin seems to playing ping pong between 38.2% retracements, the largest cycle of which ($500-$300) failed at $380s. I anticipate that BTC will not breach this large cycle 38.2% retracement on the next attempt, and will go down to find support at 61.8% retrace of the $300-$380 rally, having already bounced of the 38.2% retrace of the $300-$380 rally at around $350.

https://i.imgur.com/ehqzuoP.png

This ascending channel is strong. 8)

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX 392.25)

Nice call. Cheers.  :)

Hmm did it? If I were a trader that sold into that one I wouldn't be too happy right now.
:-*

It did.

look at the dates of those posts.

I'm aware dawg. It was only a pull back before moving up further.
Selling there missed more upside potential.

Unless you're implying that you traded out at ~$380 and then bought back in at ~$350 to profit, but based on the rest of your posts on this forum I'm not really thinking that was what you were looking to do.  :-X

I am busy so this heads up is from my phone:

I have sold around $418. The upside momentum is not too strong at this point. My strategy for now is to wait and see what is going to happen before buying back in.

I will try to update with more analysis.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $417.00)

I can see the price going down for the remainder of this month.
The rally was fun but all good things must come to an end.

See you in 2016. Take care.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $442.19)

Strong buy and sell signals on the simple moving average (12h):

The latest uptrend was from ~325 (open) till ~450 (close); +38%.

https://i.imgur.com/Lfdm6yg.png

The selling is going slower than what I initially expected.
However, I am confident that we will see lower prices again.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $426.42)

Always enjoy this thead.

Thanks for the info.

This thread is embarrassing, just put it to bed.

lol

The only thing that is embarassing about it, is how Morecoin Freeman provides next to fuck all in the way of TA, yet his calls bulldoze through all the nonsense spouted by the majority of other clowns on this forum.

Morecoin Freeman is not to be dimissed lightly.....but I know which side of the trade you favour at the moment, and it aint the same as Morecoin Freeman's.....perhaps you are about to learn the same lesson I did a short while ago?

Bullshit.

He declared intermediate bottom around 220 USD in April, then next higher floor around 275 USD in July. Sell suggestion in late July wasn't a bad call either (for a mid to short term trade), and he followed it up with a buy recommendation that came early enough to make it a profitable trade.

He didn't seem to have called the current swing correctly (October to now), suggesting to sell halfway into the first leg up, but admitted his mistake. Sell recommendation in early November (for another short/mid term trade) was again correct. Followed up by another accurate call for the intermediate bottom shortly after.

I tend to agree with Mat on this one: very little explanation or spelled out analysis, but pretty accurate over the entire period.

(edit) That said, Morecoin's latest call is a bit dubious. He said he sold on December 10 at $418, but a later post by him suggests his exit was on December 20. Which either means he's retconning his trading history, or that he's not disclosing all trades in between the two post - some of which might have not been profitable.

(aside) The real mystery to me is finding so many uber-bearish posts by some forum old timers in here, like Miz4r's post in April (at ~$220) about the expected bottom between $80 and $160, and how he believes it to be "very unlikely" he'd need to close his short at a loss. Hope he was only playing with a fraction of his coins - likely that's what he did, unless I completely misjudged him from past interactions.

Morecoin has been whiffing HARD for a couple months now. I'd rather listen to my cat's meows - 1 for yes 2 for no, than follow this asshole now.

As the new move down unfolds it becomes clear that the simple moving average never really turned into support this time:

https://i.imgur.com/OIb5Sch.png

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $437.15)

Sage market commentary from the Morecoin Freeman should never be taken lightly!

I think we are in for some January-volatility. Leaving the 400's this weekend is a possibility.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $423.48)

Phew!

I am glad that instead of listening to my cat's meows, I paid heed to the Morecoin Freeman!

Yep, absolutely brutal:

https://i.imgur.com/L3kNDey.png

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $367.21)

Did you entered a bitcoin position again ?

Not yet. But I have to say that, depending on your time frame, buying now at ~365 could turn out to be nice.
I just closed my short from ~440. I trade this quite conservative so I am waiting for more of a buy signal before I enter.

I entered at $366, not because of the above statement, but because 70% fkn retracement, right into 61.8% RLZ of entire rally, fkn 12% slide in one fucking day! Surely $357 had to be the bottom. Surely. Surely. SURELY.....and after such a dramatic crash...the bounce here could be pretty substantial...so caution to the wind (and not for the first time on this BTC death slide), I abandoned waiting for nice reassuring market structure went long.......

Obviously....I got my Stop triggered on the Stop Run heading into London Kill Zone, with BTC now above where I got bumped out of my position. Taunting me, pointing and laughing in my face....in summation..I have wiped out about 80% of the profits I made from shorting ($450 - $430), by trying to 'pick the bottom'

Yep...I think 'trade conservatively' is key to playing this bitch of a market.....with that said...'just closed your short from $440!?!?!'. What trade setup are you using that makes it ok to hold a short from $440, right down to $360 in one day? 9/10 times, a bounce would have triggered, obliterating your profits and/or making you hang around in the short trade for another 10 days, waiting on continuation of the trend.

Market can of course do anything it wants....but looking at the charts here, it looks like probably a consolidation period.........and then more downside, basically down to test support at around $320....or who knows....maybe just straight down......'Shooting Star' bottom candle on 4Hr, 12Hr, etc... Don't see many of those. If 'they' send it straight down, then 'they' will shut out the shorters and leave the downside momentum to panic sellers. Would need to go full Kamikaze to short BTC now.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/GeazCxCp/

$ 300 seems a realistic target at this point.

That would be an extreme downside target in my view, but still a very viable and possible one:


https://www.tradingview.com/x/y9TmytR9/

Lately the news about bitcoin's scalability problem has been very negative. Meanwhile the simple moving average is pretty much acting as resistance:

https://i.imgur.com/esrDlfH.png

Add to this that on larger time frames the MACD is close to suggesting the price to break down and you will understand that I remain bearish.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $381.92)

For some time, I was in the $315 Final Test of Monster Support camp.....

.....but the more I look at the way BTC is working, 'they' seem to push the market just far enough to freak out bulls/bears, have them panic buy/sell, trigger stop orders etc, then bring the market right back the way it came.....For this reason, I still do ultimately expect a breach of $352, which will trigger a spate of panic selling down to I guess $330-$340.....

Certainly a big notch needing filled in down there:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/FN9FtTrv/


But for time being, give or take a retrace back down to lower $370 or upper $360s, I think there is a strong case to be made for a range trade back up to $410. $410, cos the last logical Stop Order for shorts is at $407, and all Bitcoin is doing right now is trying to suck n00b bears n bulls in, and them wipe em out.

The shaking up can happen also without intentional manipulation. People have different stop levels - but they tend to cluster, when the price gets into such cluster the move gets accelerated by the stop orders.

No doubt, but I seen enough of BTC to know that if a cluster of Stop Orders appear in a zone, that is reason enough for the market to move into that zone.

I mean just look at last nights action. $380 BTC. Crash through 'support' at $370, panic sells down to $360, and then with a snap of the fingers, right back up to $380...except it wasn't right back up to $380, it was right back up to $386. All the Shorts that were set prior to the break down, whose targets were never hit, would have had their Stops at $384, $385, $386 etc. What is the 'point' in this sort of price action? Is it really simply down to aggregate movements of the herd, or is it actually very deliberate and engineered? I believe the latter.

Swish swish, go the Chinese Whales......as their purses fill up ever increasingly with USD, BTC, CNY etc.....(but especially USD)

I am buying here. I believe bitcoin is close to bottoming.
To get in more of a bullish trend we have to aim for $390 and stay above $380.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $370.10)

think you're right (and hope so)

Weekly isn't too bad, but Daily on the other hand... Looks like shit.
Weekly really only has a low angle MACD cross. The only thing going for the Daily is that MACD is so far from zero and doesn't appear to be hooking down, that it just might cross back up.
What are you seeing right now?

What I am seeing. Hard to explain exactly but some thoughts:

- Expected the price to be lower by now but it is still holding.
- Had an extended period of sideways movement.
- Daily seems to come back up from its oversold condition.
- Pattern recognition, intuition.
- If necessary there is an opportunity to exit my position.

It is important to know when to sit on your hands but I like my odds here. What will happen exactly I am not sure, but I do not see the price go straight down from where we are now so buyers should do okay.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $370.90)

Strong buy signal on the simple moving average:

https://i.imgur.com/Is8UIkh.png

I expect this moving average to become support again. Best of luck.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $383.47)

Here is my price analysis:

More coin - Free man, Less coin - Slave man !  :D

for how long?
 a bottom for a week? a month?

Do you have a target?

LOL!

Fuck Bitcoin and the cheating Chinese Cunts that totally fucking dominate it.

Cannot fucking believe that I have been stopped out at the very bottom of what is the most ridiculous FU market action that I ever seen.

Nothing more than a fucking rigged casino.

Only thing that can be predicted in this market is that you will have your funds taken off you.

Pump came 'out of blue', and happened all at once....as did dump.......whole market is moved by just one set of hands, fuck that and fuck them! Think I am going to take everything off exchanges after this.


I think that Bitcoin is going to go down a lot after this. A lot of Bitcoin traders I think, would have been totally caught out by this utterly engineered move and stopped out of their positions. Wonder how many others are thinking the exact way that I am thinking, and whose next BTC transaction will involve them getting all of thier funds off the exchanges? Quite a few I bet.

Bitcoin to $340? $320? $280?

Don't give a shit. Bitcoin is worthless trading token to me when market can be totally pushed around like it is, by just one set of hands.

I remain more optimistic. The activity on some of the exchanges does look rigged indeed but if you look at China and BTC-e they seem to support my main count:

https://i.imgur.com/9k0wiWE.png BTC-e      https://i.imgur.com/gWy9IAR.png Huobi

i.e. staying above ~380 with the simple moving average acting as support.



My idea is that bitcoin has bottomed out and it will get in a bullish move lasting for multiple weeks with the simple moving average on the 12h acting as support throughout said uptrend. Where this will take the price exactly I am not sure.

I am holding onto my long positions for now.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $376.00)

Indeed.

The FU extraordinaire moves occured on Bitfinex (and Kraken but on fraction of volume). Both the pump, and the dump was initiated on Bitfinex. Both times, around 4 Million USD worth of margin trades were liquidated in both directions. Obviously that doesn't equate with bears having lost 4 Million USD worth of capital on the pump, or bulls having lost 4 Million USD worth of capital on the dump, but it does equate with a lot of angry pissed off traders who are out of pocket, the majority of which will also be casting dubious aspersions on the integrity of the exchanges and on what, or who, really drives the whole BTC market.

You may well prove to be correct in your analysis. Your track record of calling BTC of late has certainly been excellent. No doubt about that. But I for one, have taken my $5K out of Finex. Have it now sitting on Stamp, where it will remain until the USD has risen again against the EUR and GBP, at which point I will be fully cashing out from all BTC exchanges.

The market won't miss my capital much, but perhaps if their are a few thousand of me, or even just a few hundred, then that has surely got to mean something. In the absence of any real fundamental drivers in Bitcoin giving investors beyond the usual suspects, reason to actually move capital into Bitcoin, that has got to equate with liquidity leaving the market.

Been a long time since anyone could truly claim to be a 'beleiver' in Bitcoin as a force of good. This game is all about putting pennies in ya pocket...someone else's pennies at that. Bitcoin has dicked around here on this trendline far too long now. If 'they' were gonna ramp it, then 'they' wouldn't have pumped BTC, and then brought it right back down just as fast. This is exactly the sort of thing that wrecks confidence in markets...........even if 'they' did pump it to $400, I suspect that there will be an increasing number of traders who just won't buy it. $450. Not interested. $500, don't trust it. $600, too late now, no point in running in and being dumped on.

Bitcoin needs a reason for new capital to feel encouraged and/or safe to go long. That has to either be much lower prices and market structure that just screams that she can't sink no lower (and I don't see how that can happen b4 the Halving....was Nov 2015 indeed the Halving pump?), or some fundamental driver pushing capital into Bitcoin. China stocks have already crashed, CNY has already devalued a lot. Probably Chinese equities will countertrend rally a bit from here, as will Western equities markets......at this point in time, I just dont see where the impetus for another BTC pump is coming from, save for another whale manipulation, but I think an increasing amount of BTC investors are getting wise to how these play out.....perhaps that is why Bitcoin 'zigged', but did not 'zag'? Mr Whale creates the 'zig', but Joe Public has to create the 'zag', but maybe Joe Public just didn't have the appetite?

lmftfy ;)

This time it's different.  ;)

https://i.imgur.com/XQ0b5Uq.jpg

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $381.46)

Just the usual 'hunting for patterns vs. imprinting patterns where there are none', but I thought this one could turn out to be mildly interesting maybe:

https://i.imgur.com/AAnxeU1.png

https://i.imgur.com/geSXN0V.png

Last one is the current position, and flipped, so assuming patterns are direction invariant (which plenty of traders seem to do), and the similarity is not just superficial, I kind of expect another "breakdown" in the 20% range from here, only in the other direction this time.

Starting at ~380, meaning: target ~455-475 (EDIT: unless DSMA50 turns out to be resistance over the next day or so).

Nice find oda.krell. I believe in a cyclical nature and repetition of patterns.
They tend to become a self fulfilling prophecy.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $406.73)

Posting here 'cause I like the thread. Hope you don't mind OP.

Short-term momentum (by price and price+volume) still looks solid to me, i.e. on sub-daily to daily.

(Bearish) divergences? No idea. I suck at spotting divs :D

$450 is likely resistance by my count, but no idea how strong it might turn out to be. At least the DSMA50 seems 'conquered', so to speak.


Any thoughts on where we're heading, Morecoin?

lol arent you that 'sexy abs' guy that shorted at 250 dolla when it shot up 462 ?
Kinda funny

Yep.

Just about the only valuable thread in the whole forum.

He don't reveal much about his methods but the Morecoin Freeman certainly demonstrates an uncanny grasp of the BTC market. Write off his commentary at your own peril.

Happy that you guys enjoy this thread.

I have the resistance at ~450 as well but I am not sure where this will bring us before it happens.
I remain comfortable with the general direction of the market:

https://i.imgur.com/YwRMwxE.png

A noticeable retrace touching the simple moving average (support) would not surprise me, but then again things are looking good on every time frame so I hold onto my long positions. I don't think that I can be of much help for predicting exact prices/targets. I will update as I learn more. :)

I also enjoy the sharing of ideas and analysis by others so thank you all for your replies.
More good reads: Nights Watch by Afrikoin (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1161207) and PnF TA (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1064374).

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $439.12)

Like a clockwork.

I guess we'll now find out whether it's hard resistance or not :)

You've made some pretty nice calls all in all - both on the bear trend and bull trend. Well done!

The anticipated retrace and bounce off of the simple moving average:

https://i.imgur.com/CItj2uG.png

Very bullish sign. Enjoy!

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $433.13)

Always interested in what the Morecoin Freeman has to say about the Bitcoin market, but in this instance, I have to respectfully disagree. Obviously Morecoin Freeman bases his analysis on more than the poxy 12 hr BB on Bitcoinwisdom, but I will be damned if I know what it is, as the most conventional market signs are all pointing towards a test and likely breach of $400:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/VrLwCo3e/

I hope you are not shorting this baby too hard. It's dangerous territory.

No shorting at all yet.

Waiting on the FU move up above the previous recent $438 high (bound to happen), and then waiting on market structure and momentum divergence to form on lower timeframes. If it all lines up nicely for me, then I will take the short.

Bear in mind, Bitcoin isn't being driven by some obese halfwit sitting in a Tokyo office block with his trading bots switched to permabull mode anymore. Bitcoin is owned and driven by a cabal of wealthy Chinese Bitcoiners and their interest is to extract a continual income stream from Bitcoin, and they don't do that by simply allowing Bitcoin to pump unabated. For these guys machinations to be overruled, their would have to be some incredibly strong fundmamental driver, such as Capital Flight from China....but just watch the equity markets recover between now and May, and the PBOC cause the odd spike in CNY value, in order to wipe out speculators who are betting against it.

Anything can happen here, but for my money, all the signs are pointing towards a deeper correction........longer term, 'halving event' n all...I anticipate much higher prices in Bitcoin, but in the absence of a real fundemental driver, I certainly don't see any new ATH's anywhere on the horizon......

....if I am fortunate enough to be long Bitcoin at the time when it hits $800 zone, I imagine that I will be cashing out, hand over fist......I hope......although resisting drinking the Kool-Aid can be tough, but hopefully I have by now learned my lessons.

Very reasonable argumentation. +1

It couldgo downto $390 and still be bullish.

I see your scenario and I am watching it as well.

But my top watch pattern is this for now. Until its broken

https://i.imgur.com/sYU3VEP.jpg?1

Your triangle is valid to the C wave low ($352.50 but no less). I kind of expect a failure to hit the lower trendline (something around 400), but would not be surprised to see a slight break of it to trip the stops that are based on that triangle.

Ha I was wrong! In hindsight I should have jumped ship when it started trading under the simple moving average:

https://i.imgur.com/wbLggJ5.png

Where does this leave us? Any coin under $400 is a cheap coin because for the price to consolidate around ~420 is still not too far-fetched.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $395.79)

It happens! As long as the triangle holds, things should look better soon.
That poke of the lower trend line happened... Probably stopping some longs out. We'll soon see how it pans out.

if you were/are trading this probable move, what price would you buy at for a safe risk/reward confidence level?

I increased my position at $394. Maybe my outlook is a tad optimistic but I can see the anticipated block reward halving bring us past $500.
Technically we are still trading in the triangle (https://i.imgur.com/sYU3VEP.jpg) which is positive, especially considering yesterday's excessive sell-off. Short term: probably sideways.

Regarding the negative tone of the news, I believe that bitcoin is likely to scale long term. This recent block size debate marks another phase in bitcoin's development, and there is no such thing as bad publicity. Some of the smartest people in the world are involved.
Digital cash... what did you think was going to happen?

imo, anything below $400 is a buy and above 352.50 (C wave low). Right now, I have my sights set on 375ish as a bottom which may trigger some more stops. Bullish case, as long as 352 holds, is potentially above 600. A break below 352.50 is very bearish.

Your signature says still bearish. That reflects your medium term view?

Yes!
I am still bearish. The recent news is just fuel to the fire that I have seen as possible for over a year now. It may make my C-wave chart come to fruition sooner than I recently thought, even a couple of weeks ago. If the market takes it as a severe enough situation, then 352.50 will be broken, the triangle wasn't actually a triangle and we be doomin'. ETH goes up more and extends the pump.

If the 352.50 level holds (preferably higher if it's going to) then we get triangle completion, a thrust wave as high as 700 +/- a bit, and completion of the bear market counter trend (suckers rally) for wave-B (or X) and we see continuation of the bear trend (not necessarily breaking 100$, but it is possible). I don't see ATH's this year.

I have a different view, if 300$ holds I think it will be clearly bullish, with about 750$ around the halving.
Below 300$, if gets bearisher, but if 200$ won't be broken, a bullish scenario is still possible.
For the next 2 weeks I expect to continue a downtrend, ending with the 300$ support testing.

A) What recent news?

B) If this is a bull, then $38x holds, and we resolve this symmetrical triangle upon next attempt at resistance trendline. If we have to go down to $352, then this is no longer a symmetrical triangle, but a descending triangle, and those have an 80% chance of resolving bearishly. If BTC hits $352, I am sure there will be a bounce of some sort there, with it being an important support, but the bearish writing would be on the wall at that point I would say.

Well, not as much news as an eye opening, but the Satoshi round table article. An issue that has been known but swept under the rug for years, now.

352.50 is the C-wave low of the triangle and below that, invalidation of any chance of this triangle so that's why 352.49 becomes very bearish. Until then, triangle E can do anything it wants as long as it stays within the range of wave-D and retraces a minimum 20% of D. It can complete any time now, and may already be complete.

Thanks for your thoughts. What is your long term view going out over the next several years? When do you expect the next ATH? I think it will be some time yet, not least because great expectations for the halving should bring great disappointment in this ruthless market.

I think the blocksize issue is holding down price not because blocks are full (the 7 day average is only at 75.66% at the moment) but because of the uncertainties of governance and protocol development. Also the halving brings further uncertainty because of fears of decreased hash rate causing miners to drop out resulting in difficulty adjustment issues. In that way this halving does not exactly parallel the previous one, as at that time hash rate was very likely set to increase due to the switch to ASICs.

We also should see ETH either succeed or fail very publicly. I bet on the latter.

Some interesting circumstances were pointed out in that article, that tells me it has become a very serious issue if not addressed in the very short future. If price doesn't rise before the halving, mining will not be profitable and the network could see the same problem Namecoin saw in 2012 when it was mined so heavily that difficulty rose to extremely high levels (at the time) and nearly abandoned causing blocks to take days and retargets to take months. If the decision hadn't been made to merged mine it along side Bitcoin, it would have surely died. The problem here is that there is no coin bigger to save Bitcoin. If this scenario happens, we will be in unknown territory. The fear of this scenario is enough to make some seek to exit completely and others to head for alts with seemingly promising futures. Some of this fueled ETH, I'm sure.

I feel ETH is another "right place at the right time" pump as LTC was in June/July last year. In LTC's case, pumpers knew it was approaching the halving so there would be plenty of speculation helping drive it, and Bitcoin slumping/stagnating just drew in traders since there was something with movement. In ETH's case, Bitcoin has the threat outlined above coupled with a relentless group behind the pump and new developments which may or maynot prove useless once released. I feel ETH will eventually see a spectacular crash the likes of which only crypto can offer and the lead group coming out vastly richer in BTC terms than previously. Many butt hurt investors will leave crypto as was the case with any Bitcoin crash in the past.

I have traded ETH exactly opposite of Bitcoin since polo first offered it. This has not change, even today. BTC up, ETH down... ETH up, BTC down. When The ETH pumpers get done fleecing ETH fish, Bitcoin will come back to life, break out of this consolidation and move up in it's thrust wave, except in the case (again) outlined in the first paragraph.

As for a Bitcoin ATH?
First and foremost, there needs to be a permanent fix to the blocksize issue and more generally, the practices of the Bitcoin dev teams. SegWit is not a fix and may introduce more problems considering it has a massive new code base. With lots of code, comes lots of potential bugs/errors. Personally, I don't think it's a fix, only a band-aid.
Second, I don't think new adoption is as high as many would like to believe. As long as huge amounts of new money isn't pouring in, no new ATH. Bulls haven't been beaten enough to panic so are all-in, and have no significant amount of money to buy the price up. Again, no new money, price doesn't rise. We need to go down before halving, get a massive deleveraging of market participants, and a fear to buy, so that when it does begin to rise, there is money to move it.
The second part being the psychological aspects to how trends and more specifically, EW works. No trend==corrective movement which is what we are seeing since January 2015.

Sorry for the long winded post! I don't have a TL;DR either... Just read it :)

If Morecoin would like me to delete this for the OT nature, just let me know and I will.

Why should he want to delete it?

Quality little piece of fundamental observation in a thread which has become a little island of quality in a forum section full of quite frankly, utter fucking horseshite.

Would be interesting to make a comparison chart between ETH and BTC, just to see how strong the inverse correlation is. Perhaps looking for strong market reversal structures in ETH would be a good sign for impending break out in BTC? To be honest though, I aint seeing any strong reversal signs in ETH just yet. Of course, it is by now so far overcooked that I couldn't possibly consider being a buyer, but I certainly don't see any compelling reason to be a seller there either, yet.

Strong buy signal with the MACD turning positive again and the RSI almost crossing above 50:

https://i.imgur.com/a7yBL8l.png

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $415.46)

my conclusion of the last weeks: world financial crisis >> bitcoin blocksize crisis

https://i.imgur.com/GSKnbC7.png

^^ this is good for bitcoin & co.

Since Bitcoin is controlled by the Chinese, here is another inverse correlation to look out for:


https://www.tradingview.com/x/Mo4UUQ4N/


Chinese stocks topped in April 2015, during which time Bitcoin was trundling along in the doledrums, right at break even point for even the big Chinese miners, in the low $200s. Recently, Bitcoin has clearly been finding a 'top', whereas Chinese equities have been finding a bottom, and the most recent inverse correlations between Bitcoin and Chinese stocks have been lining up footprints within the space of a dime. Seems to me that Chinese equities are looking to take back some of that huge lost ground between now and late Spring, which means BTC would lose some of the massive ground gained, between now and late Spring, if this inverse relationship continues.


And here is Etheruem:


https://www.tradingview.com/x/vwFi1YqF/


I find it much harder to establish an intellectual link between players in ETH and BTC, as I do with players in the Chinese economy and BTC, especially so since those bidding up ETH, are already in BTC, which they use to buy ETH with. With that said, since Dec 2015, the inverse correlation between ETH and BTC, is indeed striking, and seems much more pronounced and 'obvious' than the correlation between BTC and Chinese Equities.

Notice the Bollinger Bands contract toward the moving average because of low volatility:

https://i.imgur.com/L79ysIM.png

Periods of low volatility are often followed by periods of high volatility. Everyone get ready for a significant advance...

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $416.00)

Got to respectfully disagree with this.

Huge weight pressing down on Bitcoin at the moment in my view.


Bull Momentum is getting increasingly weaker. Market is now likely to get a taste of some Bear Mom:


https://www.tradingview.com/x/4vHAIoOl/



On the 4hr chart, the only valid argument in town, is the bearish argument in my view:


https://www.tradingview.com/x/EAuu5xMg/


And again on 1hr chart. With that said, I could easily see a little run up into Liquidity Zone (pink box) to clear out some weak short positions before the tanking commences:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/5SiLtSK9/

Breaking the sideways trend. This new high in price above the horizontal channel is a technical buy signal:

https://i.imgur.com/xqVScwG.png

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $432.35)

I don't have much time to follow the news or price at the moment (also: low volatility), but if there's one place I like to stop by once in a while, it's this thread.

Thanks for your insights, Morecoin, MatTheCat, RyNinDaCleM, (apologies to whoever I'm forgetting here)

Interesting months ahead for btc.  Halving, interesting fiat turmoil as the yuan makes its first move to decouple from usd and becoming a new peg for gold price.  Saudis liquidating usd in fear of new economic securitie measures..

And the charts are looking primed😃😃.

Guess we will see soon.

This is it; the significant advance. The current positive state of the market shares key similarities with the price rise from May 2012 ($5) till April 2013 ($260!), with the first block reward halving in between which took place on November 28, 2012. Note that on a weekly time frame we are in the second longest lasting uptrend in the history of bitcoin. Right now bitcoin is a very legitimate investment.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $444.43)

Hey Morecoin, doesn't the distinct utter lack of Volume on this rise concern you? I know this is Stamp, and Stamp aint leading no more, but Finex (and other exchanges where the volume isn't 0% fee fakery) shows the same sort of pattern. Entirely possible that every little burst up was short squeeze driven? I myself have contributed to a couple of the pumps by covering shorts, as no doubt have many other traders. Does this pump run out of steam when there aren't enough shorters left to squeeze?

https://www.tradingview.com/x/DonGkzKI/

I'm not concerned about the trading volume. Maybe you overcomplicate your trading.
The volume is picking up and I expect new highs in price to come every other day.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $460.92)

Looks like you're getting things right Morecoin, nice to read some bullish observations that bear fruition rather than all the bearish crap that's been around for too long.

Yep..got to hand it too him....he don't always get it right, but ~80% accuracy aint too shabby.

Would be nice if he posted his TA, but then I guess that would be giving the game away.

There are certain feelings that we don't have the ability to express in one clear, concise word. :)

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $540.86)

MOON.

If you could, it would be a thu'um though :D

I see that masterluc agrees. 8)
The past three weeks have been amazing with the bitcoin price reaching $700.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $668.45)

daily:
https://i.imgur.com/YN4yNR0.png

The daily picture paints a continuation of the uptrend with the SMA acting as support.
It is important to break and stay above ~$680, more on that in a bit.


weekly:
https://i.imgur.com/YuTTW0r.png

Originally this thread was titled 'Bottom is in at $215 buying like crazy.' This was when I noticed the, at that time, double bottom in April 2015. From above picture it is clear that, shortly after the bottom was confirmed for the third and final time, bitcoin has been in an incredible bull market ever since. With recent support holding and the MACD suggesting positive momentum, it seems like said bull market is here to stay. Start trading below our SMA and things will be negative.


Jan. '13 - Nov. '16:
https://i.imgur.com/Q6j92Ow.png

Now this looks like a cup and handle breakout pattern to me. Not only was ~$680 resistance just a couple of months ago but also in 2014, after it had acted as a level of support in 2013. Also, this price level coincides with the lip of our cup. So a new break above this resistance is very relevant.


(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $657.02)

No words, only bitcoin:

https://i.imgur.com/KUKpTCH.png

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $915.10)

Hey morecoin?


Could you please share your BBands charts on Nights watch thread whenever you can?

If its not too much too ask


quotes are fine to link back to your thread.

Ive been posting some of John Bollinger's BBands charts

Bitcoin long-term uptrend; Usually a good moment to buy is just after you start to see the bounce off support:

https://i.imgur.com/qQt6zh1.png

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $1,028.36)

Is this guy a wizard? He's been calling the bottom a gazillion times.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

Any thoughts on the current fiat deposit/withdrawal issue at Bitfinex potentially disturbing the market?

This feels eerily familiar…

https://i.imgur.com/nwebI1Y.png

Feedback?

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $2,081.21)

Looks like where about to go for a joyride. I'd love to buy some more at these cheap rates but I'm out of fiat (That I can comfortable gamble with an MOT coming up) however. Pay day next week so maybe thatll coincide with a boost again as everyone with more money scrambled to pick up cheapish coin?

Can't close candle under middle axis BB, maybe have some bull trap but under $2200 and continue falldown if can't breakout this resistance line

JULY 17th I told you to buy every bitcoin:

https://i.imgur.com/yxYhZcb.png

...

Expecting lower prices if the daily closes below $4300.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $4,396.39)

Here we go again,

https://i.imgur.com/pmrfNwA.png

All-in bitcoin!

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $3,069.37)

Let's hope this support holds and the bull continues.


Edit: Perfect analysis Morecoin. *hat tip*

Expecting lower prices if the daily closes below $5700.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $5,539.53)

Bearish divergence, anyone?

https://i.imgur.com/u1Fwshg.png
daily price

https://i.imgur.com/OBVMfln.png
daily RSI (and volume)


(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $6,120.40)

Well RSI and volume is both down a bit whilst price has continued to climb and hold the current level. It wouldn't be a surprise to me if the price went down back to the $5000s before resurfacing back up again.

Looking at your charts, it's pretty much the textbook definition of bearish divergence.

Let's see if your predictions come true once again :)

Well, not this time. That was an epic bear trap... We're now at 7000!

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $7,032.63.39)

Everybody can be wrong, nothing to be ashamed of Morecoin. Personally I hope to see the price constantly rising though :)

This is it!

https://i.imgur.com/31ctSx7.png

Bitcoin long-term uptrend...

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $10,000.00)

₿een a while... Time to invest:

https://i.imgur.com/lrHncGQ.png

Beartrend resistance passed. Next couple of weeks will be interesting.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $4,744.62)

Indeed, looks like the best opportunity in a long time. Want to see it break and hold above $5700 now.