Morecoin analysis [bitcoin/USD market observations]

[RyNinDaCleM]

Yes!
I am still bearish. The recent news is just fuel to the fire that I have seen as possible for over a year now. It may make my C-wave chart come to fruition sooner than I recently thought, even a couple of weeks ago. If the market takes it as a severe enough situation, then 352.50 will be broken, the triangle wasn't actually a triangle and we be doomin'. ETH goes up more and extends the pump.

If the 352.50 level holds (preferably higher if it's going to) then we get triangle completion, a thrust wave as high as 700 +/- a bit, and completion of the bear market counter trend (suckers rally) for wave-B (or X) and we see continuation of the bear trend (not necessarily breaking 100$, but it is possible). I don't see ATH's this year.

A) What recent news?

B) If this is a bull, then $38x holds, and we resolve this symmetrical triangle upon next attempt at resistance trendline. If we have to go down to $352, then this is no longer a symmetrical triangle, but a descending triangle, and those have an 80% chance of resolving bearishly. If BTC hits $352, I am sure there will be a bounce of some sort there, with it being an important support, but the bearish writing would be on the wall at that point I would say.

Well, not as much news as an eye opening, but the Satoshi round table article. An issue that has been known but swept under the rug for years, now.

352.50 is the C-wave low of the triangle and below that, invalidation of any chance of this triangle so that's why 352.49 becomes very bearish. Until then, triangle E can do anything it wants as long as it stays within the range of wave-D and retraces a minimum 20% of D. It can complete any time now, and may already be complete.

[keystroke]

Yes!
I am still bearish. The recent news is just fuel to the fire that I have seen as possible for over a year now. It may make my C-wave chart come to fruition sooner than I recently thought, even a couple of weeks ago. If the market takes it as a severe enough situation, then 352.50 will be broken, the triangle wasn't actually a triangle and we be doomin'. ETH goes up more and extends the pump.

If the 352.50 level holds (preferably higher if it's going to) then we get triangle completion, a thrust wave as high as 700 +/- a bit, and completion of the bear market counter trend (suckers rally) for wave-B (or X) and we see continuation of the bear trend (not necessarily breaking 100$, but it is possible). I don't see ATH's this year.

Thanks for your thoughts. What is your long term view going out over the next several years? When do you expect the next ATH? I think it will be some time yet, not least because great expectations for the halving should bring great disappointment in this ruthless market.

I think the blocksize issue is holding down price not because blocks are full (the 7 day average is only at 75.66% at the moment) but because of the uncertainties of governance and protocol development. Also the halving brings further uncertainty because of fears of decreased hash rate causing miners to drop out resulting in difficulty adjustment issues. In that way this halving does not exactly parallel the previous one, as at that time hash rate was very likely set to increase due to the switch to ASICs.

We also should see ETH either succeed or fail very publicly. I bet on the latter.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Yes!
I am still bearish. The recent news is just fuel to the fire that I have seen as possible for over a year now. It may make my C-wave chart come to fruition sooner than I recently thought, even a couple of weeks ago. If the market takes it as a severe enough situation, then 352.50 will be broken, the triangle wasn't actually a triangle and we be doomin'. ETH goes up more and extends the pump.

If the 352.50 level holds (preferably higher if it's going to) then we get triangle completion, a thrust wave as high as 700 +/- a bit, and completion of the bear market counter trend (suckers rally) for wave-B (or X) and we see continuation of the bear trend (not necessarily breaking 100$, but it is possible). I don't see ATH's this year.

Thanks for your thoughts. What is your long term view going out over the next several years? When do you expect the next ATH? I think it will be some time yet, not least because great expectations for the halving should bring great disappointment in this ruthless market.

I think the blocksize issue is holding down price not because blocks are full (the 7 day average is only at 75.66% at the moment) but because of the uncertainties of governance and protocol development. Also the halving brings further uncertainty because of fears of decreased hash rate causing miners to drop out resulting in difficulty adjustment issues. In that way this halving does not exactly parallel the previous one, as at that time hash rate was very likely set to increase due to the switch to ASICs.

We also should see ETH either succeed or fail very publicly. I bet on the latter.

Some interesting circumstances were pointed out in that article, that tells me it has become a very serious issue if not addressed in the very short future. If price doesn't rise before the halving, mining will not be profitable and the network could see the same problem Namecoin saw in 2012 when it was mined so heavily that difficulty rose to extremely high levels (at the time) and nearly abandoned causing blocks to take days and retargets to take months. If the decision hadn't been made to merged mine it along side Bitcoin, it would have surely died. The problem here is that there is no coin bigger to save Bitcoin. If this scenario happens, we will be in unknown territory. The fear of this scenario is enough to make some seek to exit completely and others to head for alts with seemingly promising futures. Some of this fueled ETH, I'm sure.

I feel ETH is another "right place at the right time" pump as LTC was in June/July last year. In LTC's case, pumpers knew it was approaching the halving so there would be plenty of speculation helping drive it, and Bitcoin slumping/stagnating just drew in traders since there was something with movement. In ETH's case, Bitcoin has the threat outlined above coupled with a relentless group behind the pump and new developments which may or maynot prove useless once released. I feel ETH will eventually see a spectacular crash the likes of which only crypto can offer and the lead group coming out vastly richer in BTC terms than previously. Many butt hurt investors will leave crypto as was the case with any Bitcoin crash in the past.

I have traded ETH exactly opposite of Bitcoin since polo first offered it. This has not change, even today. BTC up, ETH down... ETH up, BTC down. When The ETH pumpers get done fleecing ETH fish, Bitcoin will come back to life, break out of this consolidation and move up in it's thrust wave, except in the case (again) outlined in the first paragraph.

As for a Bitcoin ATH?
First and foremost, there needs to be a permanent fix to the blocksize issue and more generally, the practices of the Bitcoin dev teams. SegWit is not a fix and may introduce more problems considering it has a massive new code base. With lots of code, comes lots of potential bugs/errors. Personally, I don't think it's a fix, only a band-aid.
Second, I don't think new adoption is as high as many would like to believe. As long as huge amounts of new money isn't pouring in, no new ATH. Bulls haven't been beaten enough to panic so are all-in, and have no significant amount of money to buy the price up. Again, no new money, price doesn't rise. We need to go down before halving, get a massive deleveraging of market participants, and a fear to buy, so that when it does begin to rise, there is money to move it.
The second part being the psychological aspects to how trends and more specifically, EW works. No trend==corrective movement which is what we are seeing since January 2015.

Sorry for the long winded post! I don't have a TL;DR either... Just read it

If Morecoin would like me to delete this for the OT nature, just let me know and I will.

[MatTheCat]

If Morecoin would like me to delete this for the OT nature, just let me know and I will.

Why should he want to delete it?

Quality little piece of fundamental observation in a thread which has become a little island of quality in a forum section full of quite frankly, utter fucking horseshite.

Would be interesting to make a comparison chart between ETH and BTC, just to see how strong the inverse correlation is. Perhaps looking for strong market reversal structures in ETH would be a good sign for impending break out in BTC? To be honest though, I aint seeing any strong reversal signs in ETH just yet. Of course, it is by now so far overcooked that I couldn't possibly consider being a buyer, but I certainly don't see any compelling reason to be a seller there either, yet.

[Morecoin Freeman]

Strong buy signal with the MACD turning positive again and the RSI almost crossing above 50:



(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $415.46)

[8up]

my conclusion of the last weeks: world financial crisis >> bitcoin blocksize crisis



^^ this is good for bitcoin & co.

[MatTheCat]

Since Bitcoin is controlled by the Chinese, here is another inverse correlation to look out for:





Chinese stocks topped in April 2015, during which time Bitcoin was trundling along in the doledrums, right at break even point for even the big Chinese miners, in the low $200s. Recently, Bitcoin has clearly been finding a 'top', whereas Chinese equities have been finding a bottom, and the most recent inverse correlations between Bitcoin and Chinese stocks have been lining up footprints within the space of a dime. Seems to me that Chinese equities are looking to take back some of that huge lost ground between now and late Spring, which means BTC would lose some of the massive ground gained, between now and late Spring, if this inverse relationship continues.


And here is Etheruem:





I find it much harder to establish an intellectual link between players in ETH and BTC, as I do with players in the Chinese economy and BTC, especially so since those bidding up ETH, are already in BTC, which they use to buy ETH with. With that said, since Dec 2015, the inverse correlation between ETH and BTC, is indeed striking, and seems much more pronounced and 'obvious' than the correlation between BTC and Chinese Equities.

[Morecoin Freeman]

Notice the Bollinger Bands contract toward the moving average because of low volatility:



Periods of low volatility are often followed by periods of high volatility. Everyone get ready for a significant advance...

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $416.00)

[MatTheCat]

Notice the Bollinger Bands contract toward the moving average because of low volatility:



Periods of low volatility are often followed by periods of high volatility. Everyone get ready for a significant advance...

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $416.00)

Got to respectfully disagree with this.

Huge weight pressing down on Bitcoin at the moment in my view.


Bull Momentum is getting increasingly weaker. Market is now likely to get a taste of some Bear Mom:






On the 4hr chart, the only valid argument in town, is the bearish argument in my view:





And again on 1hr chart. With that said, I could easily see a little run up into Liquidity Zone (pink box) to clear out some weak short positions before the tanking commences:

[Morecoin Freeman]

Breaking the sideways trend. This new high in price above the horizontal channel is a technical buy signal:



(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $432.35)

[oda.krell]

I don't have much time to follow the news or price at the moment (also: low volatility), but if there's one place I like to stop by once in a while, it's this thread.

Thanks for your insights, Morecoin, MatTheCat, RyNinDaCleM, (apologies to whoever I'm forgetting here)

[MatTheCat]

[bitcoin carpenter]

Interesting months ahead for btc.  Halving, interesting fiat turmoil as the yuan makes its first move to decouple from usd and becoming a new peg for gold price.  Saudis liquidating usd in fear of new economic securitie measures..

And the charts are looking primed😃😃.

Guess we will see soon.

[Morecoin Freeman]

This is it; the significant advance. The current positive state of the market shares key similarities with the price rise from May 2012 ($5) till April 2013 ($260!), with the first block reward halving in between which took place on November 28, 2012. Note that on a weekly time frame we are in the second longest lasting uptrend in the history of bitcoin. Right now bitcoin is a very legitimate investment.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $444.43)

[MatTheCat]

This is it; the significant advance. The current positive state of the market shares key similarities with the price rise from May 2012 ($5) till April 2013 ($260!), with the first block reward halving in between which took place on November 28, 2012. Note that on a weekly time frame we are in the second longest lasting uptrend in the history of bitcoin. Right now bitcoin is a very legitimate investment.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $444.43)

Hey Morecoin, doesn't the distinct utter lack of Volume on this rise concern you? I know this is Stamp, and Stamp aint leading no more, but Finex (and other exchanges where the volume isn't 0% fee fakery) shows the same sort of pattern. Entirely possible that every little burst up was short squeeze driven? I myself have contributed to a couple of the pumps by covering shorts, as no doubt have many other traders. Does this pump run out of steam when there aren't enough shorters left to squeeze?

[Morecoin Freeman]

Hey Morecoin, doesn't the distinct utter lack of Volume on this rise concern you? I know this is Stamp, and Stamp aint leading no more, but Finex (and other exchanges where the volume isn't 0% fee fakery) shows the same sort of pattern. Entirely possible that every little burst up was short squeeze driven? I myself have contributed to a couple of the pumps by covering shorts, as no doubt have many other traders. Does this pump run out of steam when there aren't enough shorters left to squeeze?

I'm not concerned about the trading volume. Maybe you overcomplicate your trading.
The volume is picking up and I expect new highs in price to come every other day.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $460.92)

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Looks like you're getting things right Morecoin, nice to read some bullish observations that bear fruition rather than all the bearish crap that's been around for too long.

[MatTheCat]

Looks like you're getting things right Morecoin, nice to read some bullish observations that bear fruition rather than all the bearish crap that's been around for too long.

Yep..got to hand it too him....he don't always get it right, but ~80% accuracy aint too shabby.

Would be nice if he posted his TA, but then I guess that would be giving the game away.

[Morecoin Freeman]

There are certain feelings that we don't have the ability to express in one clear, concise word.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $540.86)

[Decoded]

There are certain feelings that we don't have the ability to express in one clear, concise word.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $540.86)

MOON.