Morecoin analysis [bitcoin/USD market observations]

[MatTheCat]

Posting here 'cause I like the thread. Hope you don't mind OP.

Yep.

Just about the only valuable thread in the whole forum.

He don't reveal much about his methods but the Morecoin Freeman certainly demonstrates an uncanny grasp of the BTC market. Write off his commentary at your own peril.

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[Morecoin Freeman]

Happy that you guys enjoy this thread.

I have the resistance at ~450 as well but I am not sure where this will bring us before it happens.
I remain comfortable with the general direction of the market:



A noticeable retrace touching the simple moving average (support) would not surprise me, but then again things are looking good on every time frame so I hold onto my long positions. I don't think that I can be of much help for predicting exact prices/targets. I will update as I learn more.

I also enjoy the sharing of ideas and analysis by others so thank you all for your replies.
More good reads: Nights Watch by Afrikoin and PnF TA.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $439.12)

[oda.krell]

Posting here 'cause I like the thread. Hope you don't mind OP.

Short-term momentum (by price and price+volume) still looks solid to me, i.e. on sub-daily to daily.

(Bearish) divergences? No idea. I suck at spotting divs

$450 is likely resistance by my count, but no idea how strong it might turn out to be. At least the DSMA50 seems 'conquered', so to speak.


Any thoughts on where we're heading, Morecoin?

Like a clockwork.

I guess we'll now find out whether it's hard resistance or not

[yefi]

Happy that you guys enjoy this thread.

You've made some pretty nice calls all in all - both on the bear trend and bull trend. Well done!

[Morecoin Freeman]

The anticipated retrace and bounce off of the simple moving average:



Very bullish sign. Enjoy!

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $433.13)

[MatTheCat]

The anticipated retrace and bounce off of the simple moving average:



Very bullish sign. Enjoy!

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $433.13)

Always interested in what the Morecoin Freeman has to say about the Bitcoin market, but in this instance, I have to respectfully disagree. Obviously Morecoin Freeman bases his analysis on more than the poxy 12 hr BB on Bitcoinwisdom, but I will be damned if I know what it is, as the most conventional market signs are all pointing towards a test and likely breach of $400:

[8up]

The anticipated retrace and bounce off of the simple moving average:



Very bullish sign. Enjoy!

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $433.13)

Always interested in what the Morecoin Freeman has to say about the Bitcoin market, but in this instance, I have to respectfully disagree. Obviously Morecoin Freeman bases his analysis on more than the poxy 12 hr BB on Bitcoinwisdom, but I will be damned if I know what it is, as the most conventional market signs are all pointing towards a test and likely breach of $400:

I hope you are not shorting this baby too hard. It's dangerous territory.

[MatTheCat]

I hope you are not shorting this baby too hard. It's dangerous territory.

No shorting at all yet.

Waiting on the FU move up above the previous recent $438 high (bound to happen), and then waiting on market structure and momentum divergence to form on lower timeframes. If it all lines up nicely for me, then I will take the short.

Bear in mind, Bitcoin isn't being driven by some obese halfwit sitting in a Tokyo office block with his trading bots switched to permabull mode anymore. Bitcoin is owned and driven by a cabal of wealthy Chinese Bitcoiners and their interest is to extract a continual income stream from Bitcoin, and they don't do that by simply allowing Bitcoin to pump unabated. For these guys machinations to be overruled, their would have to be some incredibly strong fundmamental driver, such as Capital Flight from China....but just watch the equity markets recover between now and May, and the PBOC cause the odd spike in CNY value, in order to wipe out speculators who are betting against it.

Anything can happen here, but for my money, all the signs are pointing towards a deeper correction........longer term, 'halving event' n all...I anticipate much higher prices in Bitcoin, but in the absence of a real fundemental driver, I certainly don't see any new ATH's anywhere on the horizon......

....if I am fortunate enough to be long Bitcoin at the time when it hits $800 zone, I imagine that I will be cashing out, hand over fist......I hope......although resisting drinking the Kool-Aid can be tough, but hopefully I have by now learned my lessons.

[8up]

I hope you are not shorting this baby too hard. It's dangerous territory.

No shorting at all yet.

Waiting on the FU move up above the previous recent $438 high (bound to happen), and then waiting on market structure and momentum divergence to form on lower timeframes. If it all lines up nicely for me, then I will take the short.

Bear in mind, Bitcoin isn't being driven by some obese halfwit sitting in a Tokyo office block with his trading bots switched to permabull mode anymore. Bitcoin is owned and driven by a cabal of wealthy Chinese Bitcoiners and their interest is to extract a continual income stream from Bitcoin, and they don't do that by simply allowing Bitcoin to pump unabated. For these guys machinations to be overruled, their would have to be some incredibly strong fundmamental driver, such as Capital Flight from China....but just watch the equity markets recover between now and May, and the PBOC cause the odd spike in CNY value, in order to wipe out speculators who are betting against it.

Anything can happen here, but for my money, all the signs are pointing towards a deeper correction........longer term, 'halving event' n all...I anticipate much higher prices in Bitcoin, but in the absence of a real fundemental driver, I certainly don't see any new ATH's anywhere on the horizon......

....if I am fortunate enough to be long Bitcoin at the time when it hits $800 zone, I imagine that I will be cashing out, hand over fist......I hope......although resisting drinking the Kool-Aid can be tough, but hopefully I have by now learned my lessons.

Very reasonable argumentation. +1

[Afrikoin]

The anticipated retrace and bounce off of the simple moving average:



Very bullish sign. Enjoy!

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $433.13)

Always interested in what the Morecoin Freeman has to say about the Bitcoin market, but in this instance, I have to respectfully disagree. Obviously Morecoin Freeman bases his analysis on more than the poxy 12 hr BB on Bitcoinwisdom, but I will be damned if I know what it is, as the most conventional market signs are all pointing towards a test and likely breach of $400:

It couldgo downto $390 and still be bullish.

I see your scenario and I am watching it as well.

But my top watch pattern is this for now. Until its broken

[RyNinDaCleM]

The anticipated retrace and bounce off of the simple moving average:



Very bullish sign. Enjoy!

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $433.13)

Always interested in what the Morecoin Freeman has to say about the Bitcoin market, but in this instance, I have to respectfully disagree. Obviously Morecoin Freeman bases his analysis on more than the poxy 12 hr BB on Bitcoinwisdom, but I will be damned if I know what it is, as the most conventional market signs are all pointing towards a test and likely breach of $400:

It couldgo downto $390 and still be bullish.

I see your scenario and I am watching it as well.

But my top watch pattern is this for now. Until its broken

Your triangle is valid to the C wave low ($352.50 but no less). I kind of expect a failure to hit the lower trendline (something around 400), but would not be surprised to see a slight break of it to trip the stops that are based on that triangle.

[Morecoin Freeman]

Ha I was wrong! In hindsight I should have jumped ship when it started trading under the simple moving average:



Where does this leave us? Any coin under $400 is a cheap coin because for the price to consolidate around ~420 is still not too far-fetched.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $395.79)

[RyNinDaCleM]

Ha I was wrong! In hindsight I should have jumped ship when it started trading under the simple moving average:



Where does this leave us? Any coin under $400 is a cheap coin because for the price to consolidate around ~420 is still not too far-fetched.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $395.79)

It happens! As long as the triangle holds, things should look better soon.
That poke of the lower trend line happened... Probably stopping some longs out. We'll soon see how it pans out.

[Afrikoin]

Ha I was wrong! In hindsight I should have jumped ship when it started trading under the simple moving average:



Where does this leave us? Any coin under $400 is a cheap coin because for the price to consolidate around ~420 is still not too far-fetched.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $395.79)

It happens! As long as the triangle holds, things should look better soon.
That poke of the lower trend line happened... Probably stopping some longs out. We'll soon see how it pans out.

if you were/are trading this probable move, what price would you buy at for a safe risk/reward confidence level?

[Morecoin Freeman]

I increased my position at $394. Maybe my outlook is a tad optimistic but I can see the anticipated block reward halving bring us past $500.
Technically we are still trading in the triangle which is positive, especially considering yesterday's excessive sell-off. Short term: probably sideways.

Regarding the negative tone of the news, I believe that bitcoin is likely to scale long term. This recent block size debate marks another phase in bitcoin's development, and there is no such thing as bad publicity. Some of the smartest people in the world are involved.
Digital cash... what did you think was going to happen?

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $409.57)

[RyNinDaCleM]

Ha I was wrong! In hindsight I should have jumped ship when it started trading under the simple moving average:



Where does this leave us? Any coin under $400 is a cheap coin because for the price to consolidate around ~420 is still not too far-fetched.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $395.79)

It happens! As long as the triangle holds, things should look better soon.
That poke of the lower trend line happened... Probably stopping some longs out. We'll soon see how it pans out.

if you were/are trading this probable move, what price would you buy at for a safe risk/reward confidence level?

imo, anything below $400 is a buy and above 352.50 (C wave low). Right now, I have my sights set on 375ish as a bottom which may trigger some more stops. Bullish case, as long as 352 holds, is potentially above 600. A break below 352.50 is very bearish.

[keystroke]

imo, anything below $400 is a buy and above 352.50 (C wave low). Right now, I have my sights set on 375ish as a bottom which may trigger some more stops. Bullish case, as long as 352 holds, is potentially above 600. A break below 352.50 is very bearish.

Your signature says still bearish. That reflects your medium term view?

[RyNinDaCleM]

imo, anything below $400 is a buy and above 352.50 (C wave low). Right now, I have my sights set on 375ish as a bottom which may trigger some more stops. Bullish case, as long as 352 holds, is potentially above 600. A break below 352.50 is very bearish.

Your signature says still bearish. That reflects your medium term view?

Yes!
I am still bearish. The recent news is just fuel to the fire that I have seen as possible for over a year now. It may make my C-wave chart come to fruition sooner than I recently thought, even a couple of weeks ago. If the market takes it as a severe enough situation, then 352.50 will be broken, the triangle wasn't actually a triangle and we be doomin'. ETH goes up more and extends the pump.

If the 352.50 level holds (preferably higher if it's going to) then we get triangle completion, a thrust wave as high as 700 +/- a bit, and completion of the bear market counter trend (suckers rally) for wave-B (or X) and we see continuation of the bear trend (not necessarily breaking 100$, but it is possible). I don't see ATH's this year.

[Tzupy]

I have a different view, if 300$ holds I think it will be clearly bullish, with about 750$ around the halving.
Below 300$, if gets bearisher, but if 200$ won't be broken, a bullish scenario is still possible.
For the next 2 weeks I expect to continue a downtrend, ending with the 300$ support testing.

[MatTheCat]

Yes!
I am still bearish. The recent news is just fuel to the fire that I have seen as possible for over a year now. It may make my C-wave chart come to fruition sooner than I recently thought, even a couple of weeks ago. If the market takes it as a severe enough situation, then 352.50 will be broken, the triangle wasn't actually a triangle and we be doomin'. ETH goes up more and extends the pump.

If the 352.50 level holds (preferably higher if it's going to) then we get triangle completion, a thrust wave as high as 700 +/- a bit, and completion of the bear market counter trend (suckers rally) for wave-B (or X) and we see continuation of the bear trend (not necessarily breaking 100$, but it is possible). I don't see ATH's this year.

A) What recent news?

B) If this is a bull, then $38x holds, and we resolve this symmetrical triangle upon next attempt at resistance trendline. If we have to go down to $352, then this is no longer a symmetrical triangle, but a descending triangle, and those have an 80% chance of resolving bearishly. If BTC hits $352, I am sure there will be a bounce of some sort there, with it being an important support, but the bearish writing would be on the wall at that point I would say.