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Title: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on July 02, 2015, 01:00:32 AM Thinking we will see roughly the same movement we saw after the run up to 259:
http://i.gyazo.com/ead96e3509a94d3e2c0de90a6616c9ba.png https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/kyN0pcmI Quote Bulls have failed to show strength and Ultimate Oscillator shows bearish divergence. So we will probably retrace some more the coming days, let indicators reset before the next leg up on the daily chart. Putting buy orders between 248 and 250 target 277-280, SL at 242 Edit: TP line is wrong, you can ignore that Title: Re: My prediction for the next ~2 weeks Post by: Fakhoury on July 02, 2015, 01:03:26 AM Makes sense and looks solid.
Thank you :) Title: Re: My prediction for the next ~2 weeks Post by: everaja on July 02, 2015, 01:06:14 AM My prediction:
As noticed in Past 5-6 hrs ,4 cycles , means ~24 hrs , the price of bitcoin has fall from 267$ dramatically and i hope that there will not be much hike now and it gonna be same as long (months) back , So i don't think of buying Some of them rather will say to sell them up ! Moreover your Prediction seems Solid ! Title: Re: My prediction for the next ~2 weeks Post by: hodlmybtc on July 02, 2015, 01:15:17 AM As noticed in Past 5-6 hrs ,4 cycles , means ~24 hrs , the price of bitcoin has fall from 267$ dramatically and i hope that there will not be much hike now and it gonna be same as long (months) back , So i don't think of buying Some of them rather will say to sell them up ! Price moved up too fast, people taking profit will correct it. We are currently in an uptrend and retraces of 50% or even 61.8% are perfectly healthy. Price moving up too fast isn't that great in general (ofcourse for people who bought low it is great), see what happened after the mega bubble in 2013, a huge downtrend which will turn a lot of people off to use Bitcoin in an other way than a speculative asset. People who bought at 1200 can't be happy the last 2 years. Also we are not ready yet to see a huge bubble like in 2013, everyone is still very cautious because of the 19 month downtrend, maybe when we cross ~350-400 with force a lot of people will step in and we might see fireworks. Title: Re: My prediction for the next ~2 weeks Post by: everaja on July 02, 2015, 01:22:38 AM As noticed in Past 5-6 hrs ,4 cycles , means ~24 hrs , the price of bitcoin has fall from 267$ dramatically and i hope that there will not be much hike now and it gonna be same as long (months) back , So i don't think of buying Some of them rather will say to sell them up ! Price moved up too fast, people taking profit will correct it. We are currently in an uptrend and retraces of 50% or even 61.8% are perfectly healthy. Price moving up too fast isn't that great in general (ofcourse for people who bought low it is great), see what happened after the mega bubble in 2013, a huge downtrend which will turn a lot of people off to use Bitcoin in an other way than a speculative asset. People who bought at 1200 can't be happy the last 2 years. Also we are not ready yet to see a huge bubble like in 2013, everyone is still very cautious because of the 19 month downtrend, maybe when we cross ~350-400 with force a lot of people will step in and we might see fireworks. I agree with you on the point quoted Italic , if more People join the Bitcoin Party then we are sure of Seeing some crackers in the sky but for Bitcoin Party to Start it must reach 350$ across and from the sign of Graphs of last 3 days it is very much Imperative to say that the price gonna cross 300$ , well as BTC is speculative asset and the People who bought at 1200 can't be happy the last 2 years are keenly waiting for it to spark meanwhile there are some who don't want it , moreover i will not say much as i am still beginner and only 1 year old to BTC , i will just add your Thread to my watchlist. Title: Re: My prediction for the next ~2 weeks Post by: everaja on July 02, 2015, 01:35:46 AM In the Voting of Price prediction in July the Poll results says:
Poll Thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.0;topicseen Code: in july, price will hit a high of Out of 150 Title: Re: My prediction for the next ~2 weeks Post by: randy8777 on July 02, 2015, 02:43:24 AM finally a realistic prediction. it's getting annoying browsing through posts from dreamers thinking it will go to $600 within a short period of time. i hope we'll be able to go over $300 and stay there this year.
Title: Re: My prediction for the next ~2 weeks Post by: hodlmybtc on July 02, 2015, 03:15:16 AM In the Voting of Price prediction in July the Poll results says: Poll Thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.0;topicseen Code: in july, price will hit a high of Out of 150 Majority believes that Price gonna be less than 300 $. :-[ The majority believes the prices will be above $300. Of 150 people 102 people think the price will be above $300, only 48 think it will below $300. Title: Re: My prediction for the next ~2 weeks Post by: TheNewAnon135246 on July 02, 2015, 05:59:39 AM In the Voting of Price prediction in July the Poll results says: Poll Thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.0;topicseen Code: in july, price will hit a high of Out of 150 Majority believes that Price gonna be less than 300 $. :-[ The majority believes the prices will be above $300. Of 150 people 102 people think the price will be above $300, only 48 think it will below $300. The majority of people believe in these prices because they bought in way to high and want to cut their losses. I'd rather see a slow (and steady) increase instead of seeing the price shoot up and drop back down. Title: Re: My prediction for the next ~2 weeks Post by: NorrisK on July 02, 2015, 06:35:48 AM In the Voting of Price prediction in July the Poll results says: Poll Thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.0;topicseen Code: in july, price will hit a high of Out of 150 Majority believes that Price gonna be less than 300 $. :-[ The majority believes the prices will be above $300. Of 150 people 102 people think the price will be above $300, only 48 think it will below $300. This is the correct way of stating it. The majority thinks it will be above 300, but is divided about how much higher it will be. Title: Re: My prediction for the next ~2 weeks Post by: ammy009 on July 02, 2015, 07:49:16 AM Title: Re: My prediction for the next ~2 weeks Post by: Amph on July 02, 2015, 07:56:54 AM we will probably following the same pattern as before like you said, but with a fster rate, i'm not expecting 6 month in the 250-275 range, like it was for the porevious range
solid floor from now should be build faster the more we approach 300,, above 300 there is a good chance to rise much faster than what we are performing right now Title: Re: My prediction for the next ~2 weeks Post by: inca on July 02, 2015, 09:48:34 AM Drawing a line on a chart is simply a guess.
OP guesses down and could be right. If more people guess up then he will be wrong. Place your bets! Title: Re: My prediction for the next ~2 weeks Post by: kwukduck on July 02, 2015, 09:49:25 AM I would comment on the chart and predictions but mods are just going to remove my comments again.
Very open and balanced dscussion we can have here when critics get silenced. Title: Re: My prediction for the next ~2 weeks Post by: SmartIphone on July 02, 2015, 09:56:01 AM The bitcoin price should go up this week :) or max next week
Title: Re: My prediction for the next ~2 weeks Post by: inca on July 02, 2015, 11:41:35 AM I would comment on the chart and predictions but mods are just going to remove my comments again. Very open and balanced dscussion we can have here when critics get silenced. Feel free to post in a fiat currency forum! Title: Re: My prediction for the next ~2 weeks Post by: farting_shot on July 02, 2015, 01:04:59 PM Began mini crashes
For the last two years Bitcoin has lost 90% of its value Yet, bulltards say Buy&HODL Over and over Drowning out reasonable voices Began mini crashes If you are still greedy Buy more bitcoins And prepare to die destitute Began mini crashes If you are insane Keep buying worthless coins Began mini crashes If you are sane Stop doing the same shit Over and over Began mini crashes We will all die destitute Title: Re: My prediction for the next ~2 weeks Post by: ammy009 on July 02, 2015, 01:07:05 PM Began mini crashes For the last two years Bitcoin has lost 90% of its value Yet, bulltards say Buy&HODL Over and over Drowning out reasonable voices Began mini crashes If you are still greedy Buy more bitcoins And prepare to die destitute Began mini crashes If you are insane Keep buying worthless coins Began mini crashes If you are sane Stop doing the same shit Over and over Began mini crashes We will all die destitute nice poetry :D ;D Title: Re: My prediction for the next ~2 weeks Post by: 8up on July 02, 2015, 01:29:24 PM I would comment on the chart and predictions but mods are just going to remove my comments again. Very open and balanced dscussion we can have here when critics get silenced. Feel free to post in a fiat currency forum! LMAO Just curious. Has anybody heared of dollartalk.org and eurotalk.org? Many followers. Very interest. Title: Re: My prediction for the next ~2 weeks Post by: hodlmybtc on July 02, 2015, 03:20:19 PM I would comment on the chart and predictions but mods are just going to remove my comments again. Very open and balanced dscussion we can have here when critics get silenced. You're not a critic, you want people to believe Bitcoin will fail etc. so you can buy back at $220, $10 or whatever targets you're usually posting. Bulls can make profit, bears can make profit, gamblers always lose in the long term. Title: Re: My prediction for the next ~2 weeks Post by: hodlmybtc on July 02, 2015, 05:51:29 PM I didn't advise anyone to short and I'm not a huge fan of shorting BTC myself but after 269 a correction was definately due so I put in a smallish short on OKCoin Futures to at least put a little bit of money where my mouth is :)
Other 13 contracts still short, almost got hit, settlement in 14 hours tho so I'll probably try to close it before settlement. http://i.gyazo.com/105d746698ada02da67315882861e247.png Title: Re: My prediction for the next ~2 weeks Post by: Eastwind on July 02, 2015, 08:25:15 PM It could touch $280 in the next two weeks. However, it does not matter for the long term price.
Title: Re: My prediction for the next ~2 weeks Post by: farting_shot on July 03, 2015, 02:28:20 PM It could touch $280 in the next two weeks. However, it does not matter for the long term price. Yeah, because "for the long term price" bitcoin will eventually crash! Title: Re: My prediction for the next ~2 weeks Post by: inca on July 03, 2015, 03:47:46 PM It could touch $280 in the next two weeks. However, it does not matter for the long term price. Yeah, because "for the long term price" bitcoin will eventually crash! Bears are becoming rare and desperate in these parts. Title: Re: My prediction for the next ~2 weeks Post by: hodlmybtc on July 03, 2015, 04:19:56 PM Added some more shorts yesterday when I saw we couldn't go higher than 257, most of them are closed in profit, only have a few contracts short left in quarterly futures.
http://i.gyazo.com/93ebadacf36e779cefeafd87d797b66d.png Waiting for the final dip to ~250, have my buy orders set, after that I'm full bull again ;D It could touch $280 in the next two weeks. However, it does not matter for the long term price. Yeah, because "for the long term price" bitcoin will eventually crash! Bears are becoming rare and desperate in these parts. Yeah posts like those are getting really desperate, I mean, if you aren't paid to post here and are such a Bitcoin skeptic, wtf you're doing here? Title: Re: My prediction for the next ~2 weeks Post by: randy8777 on July 03, 2015, 04:33:43 PM It could touch $280 in the next two weeks. However, it does not matter for the long term price. if you look at the long term price, and i mean real long term (5 years or more away from now) then even $500 or $1000 won't matter. by that time we'll know where bitcoin stands. or a lot less people will use it, or we will see global adoption increased significantly. Title: Re: My prediction for the next ~2 weeks Post by: HarHarHar9965 on July 03, 2015, 04:51:56 PM Your prediction seems to be nice, inspiring and in a way motivating. I hope things go at the same pace as they are, and it would be so nice to know how our investments have shaped into much more than an investment, but a real functioning, well adopted currency used by billions of people. I hope that day comes soon, and I hope old timers don't lose their patience and give up :)
Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on July 03, 2015, 06:45:47 PM I decided to make this a speculation thread instead of just 1 prediction.
It won't be limited to BTC, as I also trade a bit on 1broker since recently. It's great and easy to trade forex/commodities/stocks with BTC, feel free to join under me: https://1broker.com/m/r.php?i=3150 (if this isn't allowed please remove it or let me know mods). I'm currently shorting Oil (CL!1) from 56.55, chart: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CL1!/rxww67Ww (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CL1!/rxww67Ww) Also shorting EUR/USD, bearish divergence on the hourly chart and 9MA/20MA crossing down, chart: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/tSGpAKt2 More to come soonishTM ;D Title: Re: My prediction for the next ~2 weeks Post by: cellard on July 03, 2015, 07:21:35 PM Added some more shorts yesterday when I saw we couldn't go higher than 257, most of them are closed in profit, only have a few contracts short left in quarterly futures. http://i.gyazo.com/93ebadacf36e779cefeafd87d797b66d.png Waiting for the final dip to ~250, have my buy orders set, after that I'm full bull again ;D It could touch $280 in the next two weeks. However, it does not matter for the long term price. Yeah, because "for the long term price" bitcoin will eventually crash! Bears are becoming rare and desperate in these parts. Yeah posts like those are getting really desperate, I mean, if you aren't paid to post here and are such a Bitcoin skeptic, wtf you're doing here? Can I ask what GUI is that? i cant recognize that exchange's order list, and it seems like it tells you the gains that you make and so on, which is pretty cool. Title: Re: My prediction for the next ~2 weeks Post by: hodlmybtc on July 03, 2015, 07:54:53 PM Added some more shorts yesterday when I saw we couldn't go higher than 257, most of them are closed in profit, only have a few contracts short left in quarterly futures. http://i.gyazo.com/93ebadacf36e779cefeafd87d797b66d.png Waiting for the final dip to ~250, have my buy orders set, after that I'm full bull again ;D It could touch $280 in the next two weeks. However, it does not matter for the long term price. Yeah, because "for the long term price" bitcoin will eventually crash! Bears are becoming rare and desperate in these parts. Yeah posts like those are getting really desperate, I mean, if you aren't paid to post here and are such a Bitcoin skeptic, wtf you're doing here? Can I ask what GUI is that? i cant recognize that exchange's order list, and it seems like it tells you the gains that you make and so on, which is pretty cool. It's okcoin.com. Yeah it's pretty neat but some things are a bit weird still, also sometimes you get errors in chinese or something but overall it's ok. I wouldn't advise having a big % of your coins in an exchange ofcourse, maybe especially on OKCoin, there are a lot of rumors that it will be the next Gox. As always you should do your own due diligence and never send any money to an exchange for a longer period than you can't afford to lose. Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on July 03, 2015, 09:02:00 PM A bad day for Greek citizens:
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3c0ytq/greek_banks_prepare_plan_to_raid_deposits_to/ This is WAY worse than the Cyprus situation :-\ Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: Carlton Banks on July 03, 2015, 09:41:50 PM A bad day for Greek citizens: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3c0ytq/greek_banks_prepare_plan_to_raid_deposits_to/ This is WAY worse than the Cyprus situation :-\ €8000 is being suggested as the threshold for the deposit haircuts. Supposedly all Euro denominated deposit accounts have a €100, 000 guarantee. The Greek people will lose their shit if that actually happens, or at least those that still have more than that much left in a bank account. That could destroy the country, and possibly bring the warzone in Greece's backyard a little closer to Europe's backyard (North Africa & Middle East are, of course, very nearby to Greece). Scary stuff Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on July 05, 2015, 07:45:55 PM The next 24 hours are critical TM
4H looking beautiful: https://www.tradingview.com/x/opGTLyoP/ A bad day for Greek citizens: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3c0ytq/greek_banks_prepare_plan_to_raid_deposits_to/ This is WAY worse than the Cyprus situation :-\ €8000 is being suggested as the threshold for the deposit haircuts. Supposedly all Euro denominated deposit accounts have a €100, 000 guarantee. The Greek people will lose their shit if that actually happens, or at least those that still have more than that much left in a bank account. That could destroy the country, and possibly bring the warzone in Greece's backyard a little closer to Europe's backyard (North Africa & Middle East are, of course, very nearby to Greece). Scary stuff Yeah it won't end well, also stock markets are probably going to crash within 1 year and probably (way) earlier. Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on July 07, 2015, 02:53:10 AM The last couple days have been great for BTC, unfortunately I closed my long yesterday before I went to sleep and when I woke up the price was like $8 higher, also got stopped out a lot today.
However I do expect a decent pullback now, the daily chart is looking pretty bad short term, the last daily candle close was a bearish shooting star, we have double bearish divergence now on the Ultimate Oscillator and the RSI and tough resistance at 280 and the 200EMA. I believe we're still quite bullish and the MSM is pumping BTC quite a bit with the Greece situation. For this reason I will place my bids a little higher, somewhere between 265 and 262 which are the 0.5 and 0.618 fib retracements from the rise from ~252 to ~279. Definately no shorting at this moment, was thinking a small short near 280 but unfortunately my balls weren't big enough and the FOMO seemed very real. By the way all prices are Bitfinex prices, I trade on OKCoin at the moment so for futures the prices are higher ofcourse. https://www.tradingview.com/x/pQOPmJIL/ Title: Re: My prediction for the next ~2 weeks Post by: Eastwind on July 07, 2015, 04:11:53 PM It could touch $280 in the next two weeks. However, it does not matter for the long term price. Yeah, because "for the long term price" bitcoin will eventually crash! Bears are becoming rare and desperate in these parts. I meant the price will be higher if bitcoin gets used more. Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on July 07, 2015, 07:54:58 PM Short on EURUSD, did a long earlier, stop loss is a little higher but didnt adjust it on the chart.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/C4OvrtR2/ I'm also short on oil from ~56.5 and took 50% profit, I'm going to add a new short in here too, target maybe lower 2015 lows. Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on July 07, 2015, 10:38:55 PM Setting my bids lower, 258-260, looking pretty bearish at the moment.
Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on July 13, 2015, 04:11:03 AM Edit: closed
Small short, looking toppish for now, have small stop loss in case bulls FOMO anyway. Will close my short around ~295, will see how the market reacts then probably go long again when there is a good opportunity. Ugly bearish divergences on the daily chart, RSI heavily overbought, warning sign on Godmode. https://www.tradingview.com/x/rPVk4mOB/ Also short LTC, USDCAD, SP500, DOW and oil. Long on Monero: XMR breaking out, bid side still pretty low and lol the guys who were selling it down in to zero bids. It seems the guy with 14k wall is scaring everyone to sell in to his bids. Would be epic if some buys it all and fucks him over. https://cryptrader.com/c/ZzwShJI9 Edit: closed Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on July 13, 2015, 08:40:52 PM Very annoying OKcoin DDOS again, removed most of my funds there now.
After I closed my short I opened a small long because there was such heavy buying at $305, then the DDOS happened and price dropped $55 margin calling everyone... Anyways with the rest I have left on OKC I'm doing a long now, hidden bullish divergences on the 4H, this correction was definately due and we're still trending up strong. Ask walls on Finex have been removed and bid walls have been added. https://www.tradingview.com/x/1TS13YzB/ Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on July 14, 2015, 08:07:04 PM After closing my long I opened a new one around $290, target $297, stop loss $287.5.
Think we will break up out of this triangle, will probably open another long after in another dip. https://www.tradingview.com/x/tecmvcjq/ Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on July 16, 2015, 05:25:02 PM New long @ ~275.
Closed my last long at a small loss, by the way most of the trades I place here are pretty short-term and I'm not updating those frequently. I'll try to post more longer term trades instead of (intra)daytrades. Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on July 20, 2015, 01:01:11 AM Had a short today, closed it after a few $ down, was a really slow grind down.
I'm waiting to go long near 265-260, really doubt that it will go to 260 tho. If the 270-272 area holds I'll also go long after bullish signs at the first pullback for a good entry. Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on July 21, 2015, 02:46:36 AM https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/84AU1muE
https://www.tradingview.com/x/koqQqosb/ Quote Price has found good support in the lower 270s, 200 day EMA support is currently at ~272.50, also support has been found near the middle BB and is currently in the positive BB zone. Hidden bullish divergences showing up on multiple indicators. I hope to get an entry around 275 but if 282 breaks on all exchanges with some volume I'm looking for a long entry too. Resistances at 284, 294 and 315, I doubt 284 will be big resistance when the bulls step in with force so I'm looking to close longs (partially) near 294 and 315 and try to open new ones after some small corrections. Next targets after that will be 350 and 375. Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: Fakhoury on July 21, 2015, 02:54:33 AM https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/84AU1 https://www.tradingview.com/x/koqQqosb/ Quote Price has found good support in the lower 270s, 200 day EMA support is currently at ~272.50, also support has been found near the middle BB and is currently in the positive BB zone. Hidden bullish divergences showing up on multiple indicators. I hope to get an entry around 275 but if 282 breaks on all exchanges with some volume I'm looking for a long entry too. Resistances at 284, 294 and 315, I doubt 284 will be big resistance when the bulls step in with force so I'm looking to close longs (partially) near 294 and 315 and try to open new ones after some small corrections. Next targets after that will be 350 and 375. Thanks for your nice thread, hodlmybtc. So in short and medium term you are bullish, right ? Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on July 21, 2015, 03:04:28 AM Super short term I think we're going down a little, that's why I'd like to enter a long near 275.
Short term bullish, medium term bullish, long term bullish. USDCAD also looks very toppy after an impressive rally, will probably short it tomorrow. Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on July 21, 2015, 07:45:42 PM USDCAD short:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USDCAD/6Hx8CmED-Short-USDCAD/ https://www.tradingview.com/x/Z5C6Vhx0/ Quote After a major rally it seems very toppy around 1.30. Bearish divergences all over the place, got in at the retrace after the drop at 1.295675, SL 1.30015, TP 1.27545. Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on July 21, 2015, 09:57:00 PM XMR is about to explode it seems, I will buy more XMR the coming days and also try out some longs on Poloniex.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XMRBTC/1KoVTR4m 3 day MACD turning green, the last time that happened was at the all time low, also 1 day EMA cross up, riding the daily upper bband and both bbands expanding. *Slowly moving my BTC to Poloniex* Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on July 26, 2015, 02:50:18 PM 275 long turned out pretty good, unfortunately I was in another country friday, so I only left a small position open through the weekend.
Mike Tyson knocked da bears out: http://www.miketysonbitcoin.com/ 2H analysis: bear divs on multiple indicators so we will probably see some down from here, I'm going long between 286-284 which is around the .382 and .5 fib retracements from 272 to 294, also the 100 and 200 ema will probably end up around there. Definately not shorting here, everything looks super bullish on higher timeframes and a little FOMO added will rekt any bear instantly. https://www.tradingview.com/x/nd8WS5Lh/ Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: RonPaulBTC on July 26, 2015, 11:45:18 PM Bitcoin is looking better than ever. Cant wait to see all the fudsters getting KO'd. I wish the low price lasted for 5 more years, i need more cheap BTC before go 10k.
Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on July 27, 2015, 06:04:45 PM 1/2 of my bids got filled, entered rest just now Finex pumping with nice walls
Edit: and closed a couple $ in profit, will probably enter a long again soon. Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on July 27, 2015, 07:02:28 PM Entered again when Finex Fomo'd above 294
Aaand closed again. Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on July 31, 2015, 08:49:12 AM Long 283, I found this 4H 125 EMA (~21 D EMA) , it has been very strong and accurate support this rally, also we're sitting on the .618 retracement from the rise from 272-298.
Hidden bull divs on multiple oscillators (just 3 on chart to not ruin it), normal bull div on UO showing momentum to the upside. Also RSI and godmode levels are around the lowest levels they've been so far this uptrend. I hope I can keep this long open for a long time, but I will take profit on the way up at resistance levels and try to get in back lower, resistance levels 290, 294, 300, 305, 315, stop loss for this trade 279. If 279 breaks on good volume we will probably see 275-272 which would also be a good long opportunity, also a short from 279 to 275-272 is probably good. https://www.tradingview.com/x/FSrTOA5B/ Also shorting USDCAD and gold Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: klee on July 31, 2015, 09:02:15 AM What you found is the two supports in my chart that I used for my eyes only (until now)!
https://www.tradingview.com/x/UzuCIgfn/ Could not resist posting :P Why is everyone short on poor CAD? ??? Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on July 31, 2015, 09:29:50 AM What you found is the two supports in my chart that I used for my eyes only (until now)! https://www.tradingview.com/x/UzuCIgfn/ Could not resist posting :P Why is everyone short on poor CAD? ??? Haha nice one, S/R levels can show up in multiple ways, although you can probably draw some lines or do some fancy chart shit so that every $ level is a S/R level. About USDCAD I think it's pretty toppy, I see that I just got stopped out of the USDCAD short haha, will keep my eye on that pair later. Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: klee on July 31, 2015, 09:36:22 AM S/R in P&F is objective though..
Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: gotmilk_ on July 31, 2015, 09:38:34 AM Long 283, I found this 4H 125 EMA (~21 D EMA) , it has been very strong and accurate support this rally, also we're sitting on the .618 retracement from the rise from 272-298. This! Went also long at this level. Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on July 31, 2015, 09:46:12 AM S/R in P&F is objective though.. I only read a little in P&F but from what I can see on your charts every trendline is 45 degrees? So it means that every trendline on a normal chart using P&F should be like the same slope up/down? Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: klee on July 31, 2015, 09:49:00 AM S/R in P&F is objective though.. I only read a little in P&F but from what I can see on your charts every trendline is 45 degrees? So it means that every trendline on a normal chart using P&F should be like the same slope up/down? So in order for a trend (eg bullish) to be held, whenever you change a column you need to be at least 1 box higher than the previous column. Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on July 31, 2015, 10:07:27 AM S/R in P&F is objective though.. I only read a little in P&F but from what I can see on your charts every trendline is 45 degrees? So it means that every trendline on a normal chart using P&F should be like the same slope up/down? So in order for a trend (eg bullish) to be held, whenever you change a column you need to be at least 1 box higher than the previous column. Ok thanks, I'll probably get PRO on TV soon, I'll at least test it for 30 days :) Do you watch P&F charts only now or both normal charts and P&F? Cheers! Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: klee on July 31, 2015, 10:10:11 AM S/R in P&F is objective though.. I only read a little in P&F but from what I can see on your charts every trendline is 45 degrees? So it means that every trendline on a normal chart using P&F should be like the same slope up/down? So in order for a trend (eg bullish) to be held, whenever you change a column you need to be at least 1 box higher than the previous column. Ok thanks, I'll probably get PRO on TV soon, I'll at least test it for 30 days :) Do you watch P&F charts only now or both normal charts and P&F? Cheers! Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on August 02, 2015, 06:34:06 PM Got stopped out on my long, did a small short after so I made back a little, all good.
4H 125 EMA didn't hold, let's see if the 200 EMA on the 4H and daily will hold. I'm setting buy orders between 272 and 275, stop loss 270, same targets as last time, new resistance at 286 so if we break that with good volume and not being overbought I'm looking for a long too. If 270 fails it's pretty likely we will see 265 and it's not a bad idea to short the 270 break to 265. Daily with hidden bull divs: https://www.tradingview.com/x/vwFDtFoc/ 4H regular bull div showing momentum to the upside on UO, other indicators look like bottoming to in W shapes: https://www.tradingview.com/x/TcXhTY1s/ 1H showing some hidden bearish divergences, indicators making higher highs without the price making higher highs (couple $ at least), so there is some room for more down. 2H willy and godmode are near the same levels as they were at 298: https://www.tradingview.com/x/Hj1hDCuo/ Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: RyNinDaCleM on August 02, 2015, 09:07:58 PM Yep, Daily divs will get bigger, the 4hr will get one more compounded divergence and the hourly will get regular bull since it's in overbought territory now.
Let's get it over with! Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on August 03, 2015, 05:55:58 PM Yep, Daily divs will get bigger, the 4hr will get one more compounded divergence and the hourly will get regular bull since it's in overbought territory now. Let's get it over with! Seems the dip is over... for now... As usual price rallied when I was asleep, cautiously entered a small long around 284, SL 282. Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on August 04, 2015, 12:17:46 AM Closed my long at breakeven just before it broke down a bit.
Potential bullish cypher pattern on the 1H: https://www.tradingview.com/x/YjUhJaNA/ Also hidden bullish divergence forming, if the divergence gets bigger this also gives more strength to the pattern. Entry 278.50, SL 275.50, target depends on how deep D goes, but my targets are 50%, 61.8% and 76.4% retracements from point C to D, D can't go below point X (~276.2). Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: Morecoin Freeman on August 04, 2015, 12:20:40 AM Closed my long at breakeven just before it broke down a bit. I'd get back in right about now. The price bottomed out already. Best of luck. (BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $281.12) Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: Fakhoury on August 04, 2015, 12:27:35 AM I don't know if I asked you this before or not hodl, what is your medium and long term sentiment ?
Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on August 04, 2015, 12:35:19 AM Closed my long at breakeven just before it broke down a bit. I'd get back in right about now. The price bottomed out already. Best of luck. (BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $281.12) I'm not going back long yet, I'm waiting for the pattern to complete or else see what the market does the coming days. By this I mean with margin trading by the way, I held my coins through $160 crash. I'm on 20x so I try to get an entry as good as possible, this also greatly reduced the chance of being margin called. I don't know if I asked you this before or not hodl, what is your medium and long term sentiment ? I think you've asked it before but I'm bullish :) Edit: I also stumbled upon "moon phases" in trading, at first I thought it was a joke but it really seems to influence things in markets. The Royal Bank of Schotland did a study with some impressive results, for example: Quote The similar behaviour is observed in other markets. Figure 2 presents the studyof S&P 500 index versus moon phases for the period since 1928 till 2010. Having invested £1,000 in S&P in 1928, by now would outcome in holding £63,864 worth portfolio, while by implementing the proposed moon trading strategy, the value of portfolio would have been £1,502,689. Full study: http://www.scribd.com/doc/38095213/RBS-Equity-Special-2010-07-07 It seems to have an (pretty big) impact on BTC it seems, a new moon or a full moon seems to signal a (short-term) reversal, it's pretty accurate within 1-2 days for the last 6-7 months: https://www.tradingview.com/x/51EFxYWO/ Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: Morecoin Freeman on August 04, 2015, 03:52:59 AM I'm on 20x so I try to get an entry as good as possible, this also greatly reduced the chance of being margin called. Ok, fair enough, I did not know this. In the short term I do not see your entry get better, but you have to be cautious indeed. You do not want the market to move against you at 20x margin. Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on August 05, 2015, 12:04:43 AM Looks like we're breaking out of this ascending triangle and cup and handle (both bullish patterns) within 36 hours, since we're in this uprending channel dumps have retraced pretty quickly.
I'm setting some bids at the bottom of the ascending triangle with a small stop loss, will add in more when we break out of the ascending triangle, cup and handle and the downtrend line from 316. If we break down out of the ascending triangle I'm placing bids around 278 which was my target entry if the cypher pattern completes. Will also go long if the trendline from 219 holds. This trendline was (barely) broken on logarithmic charts but not much happened after and price is now back above it. I give the green scenario 55% chance, orange 20%, red-green 15%, red-red 10%. These numbers are pulled out of my rabbit's ass so do what it whatever you want ;D https://www.tradingview.com/x/jiOWI4VF/ Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on August 05, 2015, 07:16:41 PM Got filled at quarterlies at an average of 292.67, didn't expect spot to go this low and expected quarterlies to panic harder, but in the end quarterlies got down to the price I wanted so it's all good.
The (small) ascending triangle broke down but there hasn't been hard selling so far, will be watching closely and will try to close my long around breakeven if we don't go up. Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: mrhelpful on August 05, 2015, 09:36:53 PM no matter how much technical analysis Id look at, id probably going crazy.
esp when the movements prices 1 week later are around the same price of $10 difference. This is just me, but I never see it like every hour basis.. Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: farting_shot on August 05, 2015, 09:51:22 PM The days of bubbles and crashes are behind us. We are in a new territory called a long lull, where prices stay within a narrow range, no amount of good/bad news seem to affect the market too much. I call it the blah-land.
Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on August 06, 2015, 12:09:54 AM Closed my long for now thanks to my alarms still in profit, also did a small short, pretty big sell on Finex and China is slowly coming down too, will close the short pretty fast.
Edit: closed short small profit Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on August 06, 2015, 11:01:53 AM Long on Monero: XMR breaking out, bid side still pretty low and lol the guys who were selling it down in to zero bids. It seems the guy with 14k wall is scaring everyone to sell in to his bids. Would be epic if some buys it all and fucks him over. https://cryptrader.com/c/ZzwShJI9 Update: Some nice buying and volume going on, currently at resistance so there's a good chance to buy lower the coming days, nothing is guaranteed ofcourse ;D Next resistance around 0.00268. https://cryptrader.com/c/2mKLvMXl Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: conspirosphere.tk on August 06, 2015, 11:06:50 AM I call it the blah-land. where price stays within a meh-band. Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on August 06, 2015, 10:46:56 PM Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: Eastwind on August 07, 2015, 12:23:06 AM The price is still stable within a band, so there is no worries.
Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: Wexlike on August 07, 2015, 01:26:28 PM Great catch. Are you exiting your position or are you still in the train? Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on August 08, 2015, 12:37:21 AM Great catch. Are you exiting your position or are you still in the train? Still in ofcourse, this is just the beginning, I'm going on vacation in 2 weeks so I'll sell a little bit before then to have some spending money and also set some asks while I'm away. I however do believe that there is a good chance XMR is going to reach a higher high (>430k) than the previous rally so I will sell some around at that range but probably not more than 25% of my coins, all depending on the market at that time. I'm also in a margin long and will close probably close half around 300k and other half around 350k, probably to open again lower at these resistance points. Also there is a part of my coins that I will never sell if Monero keeps reaching more awareness, development growth and a higher market cap (small P&D's excluded). Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on August 08, 2015, 03:39:51 PM Small long 268, stop loss 265, target 274 (38.4% retrace). After that I will probably take a small break from trading BTC until the market paints a clearer picture where it wants to go.
15 min bull divs in heavily oversold territory on multiple timeframes. https://www.tradingview.com/x/1aDupF8b/ If we break 265 then I'll open a short to around 255. Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on August 08, 2015, 07:40:26 PM It seems the devs of Ethereum created themselves another 12 million coins...
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1147063.0 It's still trading at way overinflated/overhyped prices, Poloniex is still trading at 0.02989 as we speak. My advise: sell ETH (preferably at Polo because prices are higher) buy XMR I thought of buying ETH near IPO prices but since the devs created another 12 million at a whim I might not even buy at IPO prices, let's see what happens. Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: snowdropfore on August 08, 2015, 11:59:33 PM Why so many peoples say XMR is better ?
Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on August 09, 2015, 01:33:29 AM Why so many peoples say XMR is better ? I'm in XMR since almost the beginning, you should do your own research before buying into anything, do the same with XMR. And ETH was way overpiced at the start of trading, IMO it's still overpriced. OT: Lost a bit on long, made back with short, qtr dropped below spot for a while lol. Closed short around 261 and went long when Finex held up, bullish divergences on multiple indicators at the 1H chart, also some other smaller divergences on other timeframes. Will close long at the first sign of weakness tho and go to sleep, will probably do some small trades tomorrow if there is action. Good luck everyone! Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: snowdropfore on August 09, 2015, 11:51:25 AM Why so many peoples say XMR is better ? I'm in XMR since almost the beginning, you should do your own research before buying into anything, do the same with XMR. And ETH was way overpiced at the start of trading, IMO it's still overpriced. Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on August 09, 2015, 03:35:54 PM Fell asleep while long, had stop loss set so wasn't a big deal. Closed around 267, small profit because the quarterly premium is still a little over $2 over the index, would've thought it would be higher by now. Anyways now doing a small short, hidden bearish divergences (red arrows) on multiple indicators, will close again at the first sign of strength.
1H chart which I forgot to post yesterday, went long when Finex held and when I saw the bullish divs: https://www.tradingview.com/x/PE8FaC6W/ Why so many peoples say XMR is better ? I'm in XMR since almost the beginning, you should do your own research before buying into anything, do the same with XMR. And ETH was way overpiced at the start of trading, IMO it's still overpriced. Probably not for long, from what I've seen/read there are more and more Chinese people interested in XMR, also currently there are people translating pages to Chinese and helping Chinese people setting up wallets etc. Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on August 11, 2015, 03:35:49 AM So China's currency dropped 1.9%.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-10/china-devalues-yuan-fix-most-record-plunges-28-month-lows-against-dollar I'm going long on futures because the index is pretty heavily influenced by the Chinese exchanges and it seems this hasn't influenced the difference between BTC/CNY and BTC/USD by that much yet. It's probable that BTC/CNY will still rise quite a bit because of this and maybe this causes other BTC pairs to rise too, causing a positive feedback loop. I could be wrong with everything so I have a small stop loss. Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on August 17, 2015, 07:42:25 PM Was away for a couple days, did only a few trades:
I'm going long now on BTC between 255 and 252, stop loss 249, bullish divergence forming on the daily, ask side is very thin and the 10k sell was a good sign of capitulation but there might be a few more dumps. We're at the 61.8% fib from 219 to 316, the lowest I can see BTC go that's still bullish is 240, if it goes below probably short the hell out of it. ETH bounced on the 61.8% fib and is going down again now, I suspect it will keep going down because presale holders can still get 10x BTC profit from it, if it doesn't go lower I'll close my short. I will start buying some if all the presale holders that want to sell have sold, but this can take a couple weeks as a lot of people still don't know how get their coins to exchanges. Current ETH support 400k, lower trendline ~350K, if that breaks we might see some panic from presale holders. Daily BTC, buying blue box: https://www.tradingview.com/x/y2HT4cAn/ Daily XMR (ignore the big candle down, it's a bug): https://cryptrader.com/c/lJFHEShC Daily ETH: https://cryptrader.com/c/Z3CHdUih Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on August 17, 2015, 08:49:07 PM Didn't see the buywall on Huobi, apparantly it's there for a couple hours already and isn't fake. I think it was 3000 coins but I don't know if that's the exact amount.
Small long here, will close when that wall is gone. Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: gotmilk_ on August 17, 2015, 09:48:34 PM Despite those buy wall on Huobi someone is setting some ask walls on Stamp and Finex...
Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on August 18, 2015, 12:50:34 AM Despite those buy wall on Huobi someone is setting some ask walls on Stamp and Finex... It seems it's going down, 1k left, will close my long when it's below 500 coins. Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on August 18, 2015, 02:22:37 AM Closed long and went short when Huobi wall broke, 1k bid on Finex though so I'll monitor it closely.
Also closed ETH short, will reshort a little under 500k as there might be a short squeeze incoming. Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: kingscrown on August 18, 2015, 03:06:10 AM nice thread ;) not so easy to predict
Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: gotmilk_ on August 18, 2015, 09:03:33 AM I'm long from 259.2$... I have a stop loss lower but I think this won't go much lower.
Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on August 18, 2015, 11:25:46 PM Quite a bit of volatility today, made a decent profit on BTC short, closed it a bit too early, then made a small profit on a long, now in short again.
I didn't enter the long at my target I posted earlier because there was just too much downward pressure. Now selling off starting again... Not going long on BTC unless we form a clear bottom, short the hell out of it if we break 240. ETH I had 1 good short and 1 bad, I'll hold off trading ETH for a while. nice thread ;) not so easy to predict Thanks, I try my best, although I'm wrong quite often. I'm long from 259.2$... I have a stop loss lower but I think this won't go much lower. Hope your stop helped you! Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on August 19, 2015, 12:08:11 AM Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: kingscrown on August 19, 2015, 12:21:47 AM first flashcrash i didnt make too big money at..
i had not much USD on bitfinex ;( Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on August 19, 2015, 12:33:27 AM first flashcrash i didnt make too big money at.. i had not much USD on bitfinex ;( Same here, trade only on quaterly futures, made a big profit first short, ok profit second short, got rekt 3rd one because futures premium was behaving pretty weird. All in all I'm up a tiny bit, will hold off trading this mad beast for a while until things cool down. Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on August 19, 2015, 01:54:11 AM Long, small stop loss at ~233
Title: Re: hodlmybtc speculation thread Post by: hodlmybtc on August 19, 2015, 09:21:17 PM Long, small stop loss at ~233 Closed at breakeven, was moving to a new home today, just went short when Finex broke 230 will close a little above 220. If 220 doesn't hold we might see some margin call cascade action again, if it happens just open a decent sized short and make some good BTC, remember to close the short before it shoots up again! Also it's important to watch if Bitfinex prices diverge from other exchanges again or not as this will ofcourse limits the price fall on futures. If you're on Bitfinex you can make a big profit if this happens but you can also get owned by the lag/system/bugs whatever, I read a lot of people had bids yesterday which didn't get filled and they were quite a bit above the low of 162 on Finex, so watch out. GL |
