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Title: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 11, 2015, 07:41:44 AM China’s central bank devalued its government controlled currency by 1.9% today, from 6.1162 on Monday to 6.2298 on Tuesday (today). Now we should expect the general Chinese public running from their national currency into BTC and USD...
And I guees this step from the PBC was just the beginning Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: tonycamp on August 11, 2015, 07:46:51 AM YUAN can be a coin to relate to other fiat and to BTC hope they open the buda eyes a bit into japan Yen too.
Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 11, 2015, 10:11:48 AM YUAN can be a coin to relate to other fiat and to BTC hope they open the buda eyes a bit into japan Yen too. I'd rather think that the Yuan is going to be Japanized soon, that is turned into another Yen, ever being devalued by the government. China has long surpassed Japan in the amount of the US debt held, so it seems to be right on the edge of becoming the next Japan a lot more, wtf... Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: Mayer Amschel on August 11, 2015, 10:15:26 AM Lets hope you longed on 1broker
Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: BillyBobZorton on August 11, 2015, 02:29:09 PM China’s central bank devalued its government controlled currency by 1.9% today, from 6.1162 on Monday to 6.2298 on Tuesday (today). Now we should expect the general Chinese public running from their national currency into BTC and USD... And I guees this step from the PBC was just the beginning The Chinese bubble WILL bust and when it goes get ready for the biggest pump you've ever seen in your life. Consider that the BTC game is still it's biggest on china. Once china "goes Greece" the pump will be way higher than the Greek pump. Check this out: www.fiatleak.com The speed of Chinese action during the crash will be sight to be seen. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: Hazir on August 11, 2015, 03:46:15 PM So do you think that devaluation will cause people to turn to bitcoin instead of yuan? I still think it is too far fetched analogy.
Russian currency - Ruble had recently a lot of problems, was devalued a lot due to Russian vs Europe and USA crisis and I seriously can't see massive bitcoin revolution in Russia. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: MF Doom on August 11, 2015, 04:24:24 PM So do you think that devaluation will cause people to turn to bitcoin instead of yuan? I still think it is too far fetched analogy. Russian currency - Ruble had recently a lot of problems, was devalued a lot due to Russian vs Europe and USA crisis and I seriously can't see massive bitcoin revolution in Russia. It seems like this timing is lining up with the "strengthening USD" argument. It is strengthening relative to other major currencies. But it seems like the chinese favor gold, wondering if this is part of the reason we're seeing a potential reversal of bearish gold prices. I think this devaluation will be good for both gold to help stabilize price, and btc. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: Borisz on August 11, 2015, 04:31:29 PM So if my money is worth less from one day to another I should invest it into an internet-based, highly unstable cryptocurrency?
Same thoughts as Hazir, happened something similar in Russia as well and we didn't see anything out of the ordinary. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: alva5763 on August 11, 2015, 04:38:41 PM The devaluation hit British,sure it hit others,today. Do not see everyone running for bitcoin. Gold is the more established,and trusted,commodity.
Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: OROBTC on August 11, 2015, 04:51:46 PM China’s central bank devalued its government controlled currency by 1.9% today, from 6.1162 on Monday to 6.2298 on Tuesday (today). Now we should expect the general Chinese public running from their national currency into BTC and USD... And I guees this step from the PBC was just the beginning The Chinese bubble WILL bust and when it goes get ready for the biggest pump you've ever seen in your life. Consider that the BTC game is still it's biggest on china. Once china "goes Greece" the pump will be way higher than the Greek pump. Check this out: www.fiatleak.com The speed of Chinese action during the crash will be sight to be seen. Yes, the Yuan devaluation will perhaps be seen as China abandoning (for now) its dream of being No. 1 in world currency. The IMF will not let them into the SDR Club by devaluing... They are building up their gold reserves, which is about all the good I see out of China today. And, yes, the Chinese bubble is epic. I believe much more is malinvestment rather than forward thinking (needing future apartments for people in the current ghost cities). What is Mandarin for "popcorn"? Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: boopy265420 on August 11, 2015, 06:10:07 PM I would say Chinese are very intelligent if they devalued their currency there must be some logic.In past few month U.S was pressurizing the Chinese to increase the value of Yuan but instead doing as they were told ,they did vise-versa this devaluation will help them to raise their exports as things will be more cheaper in their main external markets.
Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 11, 2015, 06:30:53 PM So do you think that devaluation will cause people to turn to bitcoin instead of yuan? I still think it is too far fetched analogy. They will turn from Yuan to Bitcoin (and USD). Furthermore, this is not an analogy, and I base my assumption (which it is) on two things. First, the previous pump to 1,200$ was primarily due to demand from China (there was a real-time map here showing massive buys from that part of the world). Second, when a national currency significantly depreciates, people are usually trying to save their savings (what an irony) by buying foreign currencies which are easily available to them. That would be BTC and USD... Russian currency - Ruble had recently a lot of problems, was devalued a lot due to Russian vs Europe and USA crisis and I seriously can't see massive bitcoin revolution in Russia. The answer is pretty obvious. People in Russia are massively Bitcoin-illiterate. Not that the Chinese are much better in this respect (I guess), but their numbers are just huge (150M vs 1,500M), and so is the potential demand from them... And yes, I was buying bitcoins (should have bought more), but that was not easy Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: seoincorporation on August 11, 2015, 06:40:24 PM China’s central bank devalued its government controlled currency by 1.9% today, from 6.1162 on Monday to 6.2298 on Tuesday (today). Now we should expect the general Chinese public running from their national currency into BTC and USD... And I guees this step from the PBC was just the beginning But is not only the Yuan, other wold currencies are losing value vs dollar. and i say that because i use the "peso", just take a looks at this stats: http://www.x-rates.com/graph/?from=USD&to=MXN&amount=1 from 13.14 to 16.3 in one year, was a big hit. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 11, 2015, 06:58:51 PM China’s central bank devalued its government controlled currency by 1.9% today, from 6.1162 on Monday to 6.2298 on Tuesday (today). Now we should expect the general Chinese public running from their national currency into BTC and USD... And I guees this step from the PBC was just the beginning But is not only the Yuan, other wold currencies are losing value vs dollar. and i say that because i use the "peso", just take a looks at this stats: As I already mentioned in my previous posts here, you should keep in mind 1) that this may be just a beginning (look at the Japanese Yen as an example of what might happen to Yuan), and 2) the population of China (i.e. the level of demand which is lurking)... Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: countryfree on August 11, 2015, 11:26:17 PM Obvious question is who's next?
Russian ruble has lost more than half of its value in the past year, the € has lost about 10% against the $ and the £, now the yuan. I believe the US will reevaluate its monetary policy before the end of the year, to lower its currency. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: luciann on August 11, 2015, 11:27:28 PM The euro has been devalued from $1.337 to $1.103 (a drop of 17.5%) over the last year and there is no flight from the euro to bitcoin. Is this devalue from the greece debt by any chance? Or this is just euro in general? Or is it more of all together of the influence with banks and their games to encourage their own debt game. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 11, 2015, 11:36:26 PM The euro has been devalued from $1.337 to $1.103 (a drop of 17.5%) over the last year and there is no flight from the euro to bitcoin. This flight happened when Cyprus bank system's adventures started. And Euro (and Russian Ruble, for that matter) hasn't been devalued as it is going to happen (in fact, already happens) in China. When you wake up one morning and find out in the news that your money has been devalued a few times by the Central Bank... The Chinks should now get ready for something like that Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: tabnloz on August 12, 2015, 12:57:44 AM Obvious question is who's next? Russian ruble has lost more than half of its value in the past year, the € has lost about 10% against the $ and the £, now the yuan. I believe the US will reevaluate its monetary policy before the end of the year, to lower its currency. The devaluing of the Yuan will only export deflation to the US, which leads to saying that an interest rate hike is surely off the table now. More likely to be more QE. So what do you do if you are Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Asian currencies etc who all compete with China in the (declining) export market and have all been devaluing v the USD? They've all recently held an advantage over China, who were 'behaving' in order to join the big boys club and be part of the IMF's SDR basket ? China were happy to maintain the unofficial US/Yuan peg for a short time (Nov 15 was originally decision time by IMF), but now that is off the table until 2016. So China has pegged them all back. Maybe it is the easiest and most public way to steady their listing ship, maybe it is a middle finger to the IMF, maybe they know they can devalue now and be steady next year when China will head the G20 for the year and reserve currency status is all but guaranteed. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: MF Doom on August 12, 2015, 01:02:09 AM The euro has been devalued from $1.337 to $1.103 (a drop of 17.5%) over the last year and there is no flight from the euro to bitcoin. And if anything it seems like the majority of chinese prefer gold as their "store of value" holdings. Yes some like btc, but still the ajority turn to gold/silver Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: alani123 on August 12, 2015, 01:11:41 AM EUR/USD final outcome seems to have taken the devaluation lightly. 1.104 is perfectly normal for the time we're in with the euro crisis tormenting the currency and all.
Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: TPTB_need_war on August 12, 2015, 02:33:05 AM The purpose of the Yuan devaluation is likely to be that the investment opportunities in the local economy had dried up and this was causing rampant speculation. Many were finding they could make more money betting short against the stock market than investing for example in export industry. Also there was a carry trade of borrowing abroad and bringing the money into the local economy to speculate with.
This is designed to boost competitiveness of the export and industrial sector, which will also diminish some of the speculation. This is an admission of defeat on the short-selling ban. We should view this as a sign of massive global deflation and the coming stampede into the US dollar and US dollar denominated investments such as the stock market. This is a reflection of the China's collapsing manufacturing sector, which has I believe two consecutive readings below 50. It was turning into a rout. Also labor costs have risen so much in China and the Yuan had appreciated so much that China has become uncompetitive globally with manufacturing costs being about on par with the USA. Overall this is an ominous sign of the collapsing global economy. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: tss on August 12, 2015, 04:47:18 AM So do you think that devaluation will cause people to turn to bitcoin instead of yuan? I still think it is too far fetched analogy. Russian currency - Ruble had recently a lot of problems, was devalued a lot due to Russian vs Europe and USA crisis and I seriously can't see massive bitcoin revolution in Russia. the wont go to bitcoin now. currently there is no reason ignoring 2014 devaluation. this past year the russian ruble is seen as one of the world's best performing currency Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 12, 2015, 07:20:19 AM As I expected, earlier at night today China's Central Bank devalued its currency once again, now at 1.6%. Yesterday they were saying that the previous devaluation at 1.9% was not to be expected to continue...
I didn't believe them at once Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 12, 2015, 07:25:10 AM So do you think that devaluation will cause people to turn to bitcoin instead of yuan? I still think it is too far fetched analogy. Russian currency - Ruble had recently a lot of problems, was devalued a lot due to Russian vs Europe and USA crisis and I seriously can't see massive bitcoin revolution in Russia. the wont go to bitcoin now. currently there is no reason ignoring 2014 devaluation. this past year the russian ruble is seen as one of the world's best performing currency You seem to be quite unfamiliar with what has been happening to Ruble the last few weeks. With oil prices collapsing Russian Ruble lost about 20% to US dollar within a month or so... Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: TPTB_need_war on August 12, 2015, 04:33:16 PM Go to the Martin Armstrong thread to learn more about what is really happening in the global economy (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg12123326#msg12123326).
I corrected MA's typo and clarified his intent as follows... http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35858 http://armstrongeconomics-wp.s3.amazonaws.com/2015/08/CHINA-Y-1-1-2015.jpg Quote from: Armstrong The dollar rally and the devaluation of the yuan is not a fluke and it most certainly is not a one-time event. The dollar Yes, the world trade is contracting and will get much worse after October. ...we see capital still pouring into the USA from both China and Europe. The real estate cycle has/or will peak with this turning point around the world from Switzerland, Britain, Canada, to Asia right down into India and Australia. The dollar rally is unfolding despite the fact people do not understand why. They look only at the USA debt and assume the dollar must crash, when in fact, the problem we face is on a global scale and $18 trillion in U.S. debt is simply not the large enough for international capital to Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 12, 2015, 05:52:05 PM Go to the Martin Armstrong thread to learn more about what is really happening in the global economy (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg12123326#msg12123326). I corrected MA's typo and clarified his intent as follows... http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35858 http://armstrongeconomics-wp.s3.amazonaws.com/2015/08/CHINA-Y-1-1-2015.jpg Quote from: Armstrong The dollar rally and the devaluation of the yuan is not a fluke and it most certainly is not a one-time event. The dollar Yes, the world trade is contracting and will get much worse after October. ...we see capital still pouring into the USA from both China and Europe. The real estate cycle has/or will peak with this turning point around the world from Switzerland, Britain, Canada, to Asia right down into India and Australia. The dollar rally is unfolding despite the fact people do not understand why. They look only at the USA debt and assume the dollar must crash, when in fact, the problem we face is on a global scale and $18 trillion in U.S. debt is simply not the large enough for international capital to Could you please make the long story short? What does this Armstrong actually try to convey? What should we expect near-term and when? Talk is cheap Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: MF Doom on August 12, 2015, 06:19:29 PM This is a reflection of the China's collapsing manufacturing sector, which has I believe two consecutive readings below 50. It was turning into a rout. Also labor costs have risen so much in China and the Yuan had appreciated so much that China has become uncompetitive globally with manufacturing costs being about on par with the USA. Overall this is an ominous sign of the collapsing global economy. I have heard/read about many manufacturers saying the cost savings of manufacturing in china has gone away. Plus the logistical issues can become a nightmare if there are quality issues. Even a bunch of entrepreneurs on the show shark tank have stated this as well. This is turning places like vietnam/thailand into more opportunistic places for manufacturing. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: OROBTC on August 12, 2015, 06:26:58 PM ...
MF Doom and TPTB Yes, China is having problems with other countries having lower production costs re export products. But for relatively complex products requiring certain reasonable quality standards (like rolling bearings), that production will likely stay there. Also re bearing production, robots are rapidly going into Chinese plants, lowering their costs. We will see in a month or two whether or not small importers of some Chinese products (like us) benefit from lower prices. And how contagious those lower prices really are (we buy much more from Korea than China, we also buy from Japan). Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: newcripto on August 12, 2015, 06:46:26 PM This devaluation of Yuan will really force the people to keep their savings in some independent and easy to access currency and then remain only Bitcoin.It will be seen huge investment in coming weeks from Chinese and I am thinking this way also.
Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 12, 2015, 07:55:14 PM This devaluation of Yuan will really force the people to keep their savings in some independent and easy to access currency and then remain only Bitcoin.It will be seen huge investment in coming weeks from Chinese and I am thinking this way also. That would be no-brainer if the Chinese CB continues to devalue Yuan every night (which is what it seems to be fixed on right now, wtf)... Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: malphite on August 12, 2015, 08:34:18 PM In any form of fiat theres always a devlauation due to being no limits of pumped more in circulation.
I think its better to take away that, since most are in debt with china that it may be worth while though to have yuan if you more of them wanting to be the us world reserve currency. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: botany on August 13, 2015, 12:56:28 AM The world used to call China a market manipulator because it wouldn't let its currency appreciate.
Now it goes ahead and devalues its currency. Go figure. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: OROBTC on August 13, 2015, 03:27:55 AM ...
Tonight (US ET) China devalued a third time, that's three times in three days... Link: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-12/china-devalues-yuan-3rd-day-4-year-lows-argentina-suffers-losses-japan-escalates-cur * * * Ahh, if I had to guess, this is an issue that will be recurring for some time. Maybe a long time. This is just one more variable to throw into the financial and investment equations. Now it is harder still to figure out safe places for our money. Shanghai is down 0.70% as I write. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 13, 2015, 04:36:29 AM Wow, China did it again!
Poor Argentina has suffered the most, since about a quarter of its foreign reserves (however small for a 43 million people country) are denominated in Yuan... Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: TPTB_need_war on August 13, 2015, 05:45:39 AM Martin Armstrong's computer and I have been telling you for past years that October 1, 2015 is the BIG BANG and now you all better start to listen.
Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: Kprawn on August 13, 2015, 07:47:41 AM The Chinese are gearing up for something. First it was the "correction" on the stock markets and then they partnered up with the BRICS countries to create their own little circle of friends and now they are
devaluating the Yuan. It's as if they are preparing for a strategic move in the economic market. I would be worried if I was in debt to them at this moment. ??? Do anyone else see this pattern or am I delusional? Break the economy and win the war before it started? ::) Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: alva5763 on August 13, 2015, 08:19:05 AM Third day of devaluation of the yuan but UK stocks rise. Reason given was an unlikely increase in US interest rates. Problem with devaluation of one currency is if other major currencies follow then it is just a meaningless cycle.
Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 13, 2015, 08:19:53 AM The Chinese are gearing up for something. First it was the "correction" on the stock markets and then they partnered up with the BRICS countries to create their own little circle of friends and now they are devaluating the Yuan. It's as if they are preparing for a strategic move in the economic market. I would be worried if I was in debt to them at this moment. ??? Do anyone else see this pattern or am I delusional? Break the economy and win the war before it started? ::) I guess they would sooner break their neck. It may look as if they are up to something when essentially they may be just desperate in their efforts to save their own economy from collapsing... Deep inside I never believed in China's economic miracle Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: fullypak on August 13, 2015, 08:32:58 AM Recently chinese economy is going down for that they have tried their best by reducing interest rates to provide liquidity and stopped many companies stocks trading to reduce further markets collapse and so on however they failed to stabilize or improve the conditions. Now it is their another way to provide benefits to all chiniese companies by devaluating their currency. These are dirty tricks but I don't think these things they can do for long time
Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: MF Doom on August 13, 2015, 01:04:30 PM The Chinese are gearing up for something. First it was the "correction" on the stock markets and then they partnered up with the BRICS countries to create their own little circle of friends and now they are devaluating the Yuan. It's as if they are preparing for a strategic move in the economic market. I would be worried if I was in debt to them at this moment. ??? Do anyone else see this pattern or am I delusional? Break the economy and win the war before it started? ::) at least one of their reasons is that now their exports will be cheaper. If you were buying something in USD, the price has now essentially gone down 1.9% or whatever they devalued the yuan. Of course politicians are now saying its giving them an "unfair" economic advantage. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: TPTB_need_war on August 13, 2015, 01:56:37 PM The Chinese are gearing up for something. First it was the "correction" on the stock markets and then they partnered up with the BRICS countries to create their own little circle of friends and now they are devaluating the Yuan. It's as if they are preparing for a strategic move in the economic market. I would be worried if I was in debt to them at this moment. ??? Do anyone else see this pattern or am I delusional? Break the economy and win the war before it started? ::) I guess they would sooner break their neck. It may look as if they are up to something when essentially they may be just desperate in their efforts to save their own economy from collapsing... Deep inside I never believed in China's economic miracle I read today that Argentina (one of the countries they were signing deals with) has 1/3 of their foreign reserves denominated in Yuan, so this devaluation is hurting those who partnered on the Yuan as a reserve currency diversification (at least in the short-term but remember Armstrong's model is the $USD will peak 2017.9 or 2020.05). Asia's economic miracle is still in place, because their debt is only at the corporate or LGO level and not unfunded social welfare liabilities to the tune of for example $125 trillion the USA owes the boomers. The West is demographically bankrupt, Asia is demographically fertile. This Minsky moment correction for Asia will be completed by 2020 and Asia will lead up in growth while the wheels fall off the West from 2020 forward until Singapore and Shanghai replace New York and London as the financial capitals of the world by 2032. The Yuan devaluation is more of a reflection of the death of the West (massive deflation) than it is a statement about Asia. Asia was primarily an exporter to the West. This collapse will ween Asia of that role and set it up to lead the world as a consumer and producing for its own constituency. The West needs to die as a consumer in order for that transition to occur. Don't be fooled. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: Erdogan on August 13, 2015, 02:48:47 PM The Chinese are gearing up for something. First it was the "correction" on the stock markets and then they partnered up with the BRICS countries to create their own little circle of friends and now they are devaluating the Yuan. It's as if they are preparing for a strategic move in the economic market. I would be worried if I was in debt to them at this moment. ??? Do anyone else see this pattern or am I delusional? Break the economy and win the war before it started? ::) It not a strategic move, it is not to make their exports more cheap. It is firefighting, they are dead scared of the price movements in equity and housing. It is panic. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 13, 2015, 02:52:22 PM The Chinese are gearing up for something. First it was the "correction" on the stock markets and then they partnered up with the BRICS countries to create their own little circle of friends and now they are devaluating the Yuan. It's as if they are preparing for a strategic move in the economic market. I would be worried if I was in debt to them at this moment. ??? Do anyone else see this pattern or am I delusional? Break the economy and win the war before it started? ::) I guess they would sooner break their neck. It may look as if they are up to something when essentially they may be just desperate in their efforts to save their own economy from collapsing... Deep inside I never believed in China's economic miracle I read today that Argentina (one of the countries they were signing deals with) has 1/3 of their foreign reserves denominated in Yuan, so this devaluation is hurting those who partnered on the Yuan as a reserve currency diversification (at least in the short-term but remember Armstrong's model is the $USD will peak 2017.9 or 2020.05). Asia's economic miracle is still in place, because their debt is only at the corporate or LGO level and not unfunded social welfare liabilities to the tune of for example $125 trillion the USA owes the boomers. The West is demographically bankrupt, Asia is demographically fertile. The population of Americas are 95 to 99% of European origin. Thereby the failing demographics can be remedied by sucking valuable human resources from outside (the pick of the basket). Isn't that exactly what the US has been doing the last 150 years? Is anything going to change? I guess many Asians would be happy to leave for the US if they were given such an opportunity... A better life is only a world away Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: johnyj on August 13, 2015, 02:53:48 PM Someone is shorting yuan like Soros did to HongKong dollar during 97, the pressure is so high that they must give up some ground. Usually the operation is not a single one, but a combination of different positions in stock index future and major stocks, maybe even commodities
Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: Erdogan on August 13, 2015, 03:07:02 PM Someone is shorting yuan like Soros did to HongKong dollar during 97, the pressure is so high that they must give up some ground. Usually the operation is not a single one, but a combination of different positions in stock index future and major stocks, maybe even commodities It could totally fall (don't know if it will), just as any other fiat. The system is highly unstable. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 14, 2015, 05:33:12 AM The population of Americas are 95 to 99% of European origin. You are way off : Race / Ethnicity Percentage of U.S. population Non-Hispanic White 63.7 % Non-Hispanic Black or African American 12.2 % Non-Hispanic Asian 4.7 % Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native 0.7 % Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander 0.2 % Non-Hispanic some other race 0.2 % Non-Hispanic two or more races 1.9 % Hispanic or Latino 16.4 % Total 308,745,538 100.0% It may surprise you but the Americas are not just the US. Furthermore, I guess you may want to find out what Hispanics actually means (since you are evidently pasting data without second thought). And I may not tell you that what you call Black or African American are halfway the progeny (http://www.theroot.com/articles/history/2013/02/how_mixed_are_african_americans.html) of Negro slaves and white slave owners... Quote A whopping 35 percent of all African-American men descend from a white male ancestor who fathered a mulatto child sometime in the slavery era, most probably from rape or coerced sexuality. In other words, if we tested the DNA of all of the black men in the NBA, for instance, just over one-third descend from a white second or third great-grandfather In any case, the European ancestry is heavily dominant across the continents Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: Insertion on August 14, 2015, 05:56:43 AM The Chinese are gearing up for something. First it was the "correction" on the stock markets and then they partnered up with the BRICS countries to create their own little circle of friends and now they are devaluating the Yuan. It's as if they are preparing for a strategic move in the economic market. I would be worried if I was in debt to them at this moment. ??? Do anyone else see this pattern or am I delusional? Break the economy and win the war before it started? ::) It not a strategic move, it is not to make their exports more cheap. It is firefighting, they are dead scared of the price movements in equity and housing. It is panic. They know they are in deep trouble so they are trying their best keep the economy moving up. In last couple of days the yuan decline in value by about 4 percent against the US dollar. In 2008 chinese government was intervening in the market to make its currency artificially cheap to give advantages to chinese exporters but now US economy is strong & the chinese economy is weak so china doesn't have to intervene to make its currency cheaper. Market forces itself pushing the yuan down. It is all cheating game. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: MinerHQ on August 14, 2015, 06:56:37 AM Chinese knows now their economy is not in a good shape so by reducing their currency want to give benefits for their exporters
Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: lottery248 on August 14, 2015, 07:21:56 AM in asian currency, only the HKD (my local currency, apparently) will be the top of them, since that was pegged to US dollars.
i hate china, their policy of economy is no good, they just wish to gain the advantage from the economy, or incorrectly rescuing the economy. i now have to keep my HKD in my wallet, stay at home, and do not go any far away. luckily bitcoin isn't affected, especially the banks in china are forbidden to apply bitcoin for. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: BTC_ISTANBUL on August 14, 2015, 10:40:32 AM Someone is shorting yuan like Soros did to HongKong dollar during 97, the pressure is so high that they must give up some ground. Usually the operation is not a single one, but a combination of different positions in stock index future and major stocks, maybe even commodities Dear friend only Chinese goverment is devaluating.Nobody is shorting Yuan.USA,Germany and others are willing Yuan to gain power over EURO and USD so they can perform foreign trade directly to China or to countries China export. China and Hongkong are very different in volume.Neither the richest individuals nor the goverments can affect Yuan in long and medium term.However, China has a significiant affect on USD and EURO. I am not a chinese.I am an European citizen trying to objective. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: bitcollins85 on August 14, 2015, 04:31:20 PM the Yuan is already hugely undervalued, so another 1.9% is hardly what moved the market. I think the fact that they devalued is a signal to the market that things in China are more serious than they are letting be known.
Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: BTC_ISTANBUL on August 14, 2015, 09:20:58 PM The economists define two digit economical growth as normal for chinese economy.The new normal is 6 to 8 percent yearly growth. The Chinese economy has grown enormously for the last two decades.It was a continuous growth without any correction.Chinese bureucrats trying to give sport to chinese exporting companies by undervalueing Yuan. Do you think USA, Japan and Germany will accept this situation?In my opinion, no.
Chinese devaluation has political effects besides financial effects. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: tabnloz on August 14, 2015, 11:18:15 PM The Chinese are gearing up for something. First it was the "correction" on the stock markets and then they partnered up with the BRICS countries to create their own little circle of friends and now they are devaluating the Yuan. It's as if they are preparing for a strategic move in the economic market. I would be worried if I was in debt to them at this moment. ??? Do anyone else see this pattern or am I delusional? Break the economy and win the war before it started? ::) I guess they would sooner break their neck. It may look as if they are up to something when essentially they may be just desperate in their efforts to save their own economy from collapsing... Deep inside I never believed in China's economic miracle I read today that Argentina (one of the countries they were signing deals with) has 1/3 of their foreign reserves denominated in Yuan, so this devaluation is hurting those who partnered on the Yuan as a reserve currency diversification (at least in the short-term but remember Armstrong's model is the $USD will peak 2017.9 or 2020.05). Asia's economic miracle is still in place, because their debt is only at the corporate or LGO level and not unfunded social welfare liabilities to the tune of for example $125 trillion the USA owes the boomers. The West is demographically bankrupt, Asia is demographically fertile. This Minsky moment correction for Asia will be completed by 2020 and Asia will lead up in growth while the wheels fall off the West from 2020 forward until Singapore and Shanghai replace New York and London as the financial capitals of the world by 2032. The Yuan devaluation is more of a reflection of the death of the West (massive deflation) than it is a statement about Asia. Asia was primarily an exporter to the West. This collapse will ween Asia of that role and set it up to lead the world as a consumer and producing for its own constituency. The West needs to die as a consumer in order for that transition to occur. Don't be fooled. The thing I wonder about China, and the rest of Asia, is that their economies have been geared to providing goods for the West, a market which has dwindled post 2008. It doesn't seem like it is coming back, so how can / do they transition to a consumer led, domestic consumption society in such a relatively short amount of time (considering deflation seems to be accelerating). They have created vast amounts of infrastructure, ghost cities, gambling meccas and have also had a large run up in property and their stock market. If global deflation continues surely that cannot bode well for stocks & property, and if sovereign debt defaults occur in Europe, Asia or Latin America, will any the traditional markets of any country be safe? Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: countryfree on August 15, 2015, 12:15:12 AM It's a double-edged sword. The more China devalues its currency, the better for its economy, and the worse for the other countries. Most people only sees the Chinese exports, but many European companies are selling luxury products in China. Expensive German cars or French handbags. All those products' prices gained 5% this single week.
Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: MinerHQ on August 15, 2015, 01:28:20 AM It's a double-edged sword. The more China devalues its currency, the better for its economy, and the worse for the other countries. Most people only sees the Chinese exports, but many European companies are selling luxury products in China. Expensive German cars or French handbags. All those products' prices gained 5% this single week. It is not gained 5% but European companies lost 5% if they have fixed their price in Chinese currency. They need to do more business to compensate this loss or increase their price Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: tabnloz on August 15, 2015, 04:47:35 AM It's a double-edged sword. The more China devalues its currency, the better for its economy, and the worse for the other countries. Most people only sees the Chinese exports, but many European companies are selling luxury products in China. Expensive German cars or French handbags. All those products' prices gained 5% this single week. While luxury products have been a booming market for the last few years, it looks like car sales are on the decline http://wolfstreet.com/2015/08/14/china-mess-yuan-devaluation-dropping-auto-sales-spread-to-the-us-gm-ford-chrysler-component-makers/ Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: Erdogan on August 15, 2015, 11:10:47 AM It's a double-edged sword. The more China devalues its currency, the better for its economy, and the worse for the other countries. Most people only sees the Chinese exports, but many European companies are selling luxury products in China. Expensive German cars or French handbags. All those products' prices gained 5% this single week. Eventually, all imported goods must be paid for with exported goods. The money can not change that. Devaluation changes the environment for the exporters, and the individuals working in the exporting industries. To the importers, the effect is opposite. The importers, and the individual consumers buying that imports, will lose. Completing the picture: The consumers of imports are the same individuals as the producers of exports. There should be no devaluations, because it is just redistribution, increasing the risk of business because the devaluations are random, as seen from the view of the entrepreneur. It could be fixed with sound money, but it can't, because the state depends on continously devaluing money for its own existence. It means the currency wars will go on, and nobody see the cliff, nor want to see it. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 15, 2015, 01:28:37 PM It's a double-edged sword. The more China devalues its currency, the better for its economy, and the worse for the other countries. Most people only sees the Chinese exports, but many European companies are selling luxury products in China. Expensive German cars or French handbags. All those products' prices gained 5% this single week. Eventually, all imported goods must be paid for with exported goods. The money can not change that. Devaluation changes the environment for the exporters, and the individuals working in the exporting industries. To the importers, the effect is opposite. The importers, and the individual consumers buying that imports, will lose. Completing the picture: The consumers of imports are the same individuals as the producers of exports. Unless you export debt. Now Yuan is cheaper (with respect to dollar), China will export more goods to the US. Thereby the US will export even more debt to China (closely watch the dynamics of the US government debt held by China). And everyone is happy... It also works the other way round Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: Erdogan on August 15, 2015, 02:40:33 PM It's a double-edged sword. The more China devalues its currency, the better for its economy, and the worse for the other countries. Most people only sees the Chinese exports, but many European companies are selling luxury products in China. Expensive German cars or French handbags. All those products' prices gained 5% this single week. Eventually, all imported goods must be paid for with exported goods. The money can not change that. Devaluation changes the environment for the exporters, and the individuals working in the exporting industries. To the importers, the effect is opposite. The importers, and the individual consumers buying that imports, will lose. Completing the picture: The consumers of imports are the same individuals as the producers of exports. Unless you export debt. Now Yuan is cheaper (with respect to dollar), China will export more goods to the US. Thereby the US will export even more debt to China (closely watch the dynamics of the US government debt held by China). And everyone is happy... It also works the other way round That is right, depending on perceptions (trust) by the seller of goods, he can take debt and the buyers money instead of goods for a good while. But when the money volume expands enough, and the debt gets too high, that perception changes, and the value of both the money and the debt goes down. The holders of debt and foreign money loses, and thereafter the buyers must offer real value (the crucial eventually word I used). Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: Erdogan on August 15, 2015, 03:20:52 PM By the way, I saw this article on zerohegde by Eugen Bohm-Bawerk, explaining i detail what happens when payments in goods are delayed by debt:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-15/americas-economic-reset-will-trigger-global-recession-new-crises (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-15/americas-economic-reset-will-trigger-global-recession-new-crises) Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 15, 2015, 03:57:11 PM It's a double-edged sword. The more China devalues its currency, the better for its economy, and the worse for the other countries. Most people only sees the Chinese exports, but many European companies are selling luxury products in China. Expensive German cars or French handbags. All those products' prices gained 5% this single week. Eventually, all imported goods must be paid for with exported goods. The money can not change that. Devaluation changes the environment for the exporters, and the individuals working in the exporting industries. To the importers, the effect is opposite. The importers, and the individual consumers buying that imports, will lose. Completing the picture: The consumers of imports are the same individuals as the producers of exports. Unless you export debt. Now Yuan is cheaper (with respect to dollar), China will export more goods to the US. Thereby the US will export even more debt to China (closely watch the dynamics of the US government debt held by China). And everyone is happy... It also works the other way round That is right, depending on perceptions (trust) by the seller of goods, he can take debt and the buyers money instead of goods for a good while. But when the money volume expands enough, and the debt gets too high, that perception changes, and the value of both the money and the debt goes down. The holders of debt and foreign money loses, and thereafter the buyers must offer real value (the crucial eventually word I used). Eventually should seemingly read never. Given that governments line up to devalue their currencies against the US dollar, this is the most likely scenario. For more than ten years I've been constantly reading about the imminent collapse of the dollar... But it is still alive and kicking! Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: OROBTC on August 15, 2015, 04:35:25 PM It's a double-edged sword. The more China devalues its currency, the better for its economy, and the worse for the other countries. Most people only sees the Chinese exports, but many European companies are selling luxury products in China. Expensive German cars or French handbags. All those products' prices gained 5% this single week. Eventually, all imported goods must be paid for with exported goods. The money can not change that. Devaluation changes the environment for the exporters, and the individuals working in the exporting industries. To the importers, the effect is opposite. The importers, and the individual consumers buying that imports, will lose. Completing the picture: The consumers of imports are the same individuals as the producers of exports. Unless you export debt. Now Yuan is cheaper (with respect to dollar), China will export more goods to the US. Thereby the US will export even more debt to China (closely watch the dynamics of the US government debt held by China). And everyone is happy... It also works the other way round That is right, depending on perceptions (trust) by the seller of goods, he can take debt and the buyers money instead of goods for a good while. But when the money volume expands enough, and the debt gets too high, that perception changes, and the value of both the money and the debt goes down. The holders of debt and foreign money loses, and thereafter the buyers must offer real value (the crucial eventually word I used). Eventually should seemingly read never. Given that governments line up to devalue their currencies against the US dollar, this is the most likely scenario. For more than ten years I've been constantly reading about the imminent collapse of the dollar... But it is still alive and kicking! Yes, the US$ is indeed still alive. My guess would be that a short-term deflation is close to or now at hand. If so, the US$ is a safe place for your money. "Subject to a sudden change." And the dollar will (likely) eventually collapse... Why? ALL other fiats have collapsed in the past. Mostly due to the same causes: government overspending and money printing. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: Erdogan on August 15, 2015, 04:46:46 PM [...] Eventually should seemingly read never. Given that governments line up to devalue their currencies against the US dollar, this is the most likely scenario. For more than ten years I've been constantly reading about the imminent collapse of the dollar... But it is still alive and kicking! You are welcome to bet on never. And yes, with currency wars it wil be even nevererer... (NOT). Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: Erdogan on August 15, 2015, 05:00:23 PM It will be interesting to see which one of the large fiats holds out the longest. I guess the dollar too, but it is by no means certain.
Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 15, 2015, 05:02:21 PM Unless you export debt. Now Yuan is cheaper (with respect to dollar), China will export more goods to the US. Thereby the US will export even more debt to China (closely watch the dynamics of the US government debt held by China). And everyone is happy... It also works the other way round That is right, depending on perceptions (trust) by the seller of goods, he can take debt and the buyers money instead of goods for a good while. But when the money volume expands enough, and the debt gets too high, that perception changes, and the value of both the money and the debt goes down. The holders of debt and foreign money loses, and thereafter the buyers must offer real value (the crucial eventually word I used). Eventually should seemingly read never. Given that governments line up to devalue their currencies against the US dollar, this is the most likely scenario. For more than ten years I've been constantly reading about the imminent collapse of the dollar... But it is still alive and kicking! Yes, the US$ is indeed still alive. My guess would be that a short-term deflation is close to or now at hand. If so, the US$ is a safe place for your money. "Subject to a sudden change." And the dollar will (likely) eventually collapse... Why? ALL other fiats have collapsed in the past. Mostly due to the same causes: government overspending and money printing. But their collapse was an effect, not a cause. If you inquire into the history, you will see that the fiats' collapse you're referring to had been preceded by the collapse of the state (due to various reasons), not the other way round (if they are not suicides). In fact, by unleashing hyperinflation (or otherwise defacing the money) states are desperately and deliberately trying to postpone their doomsday... This is relevant to any form of money, not just fiat (since ancient times). So, ALL monies collapsed in the past (and only gold shines) Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: OROBTC on August 15, 2015, 05:17:10 PM ...
deisik 10-4, rgr that. Governments cause monetary collapse, yes. And, also yes, gold has saved many savers through the centuries. And gold will likely save many more (ah, ask Venezuelans, ah, IF any of them hold much gold...). Diversification is almost always very smart. Bitcoin counts as a "diversification" too. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: Erdogan on August 15, 2015, 05:18:13 PM So that is the reason that you (deisik) hold no coins, only dollars in your home. Wait, that is risky, not home, but in a deposit box. Wait, that is costly, and pays no interest to mitigate the devaluation, a bank deposit. But wait, the interest rate is zero, it must be in treasuries. But wait, those also pays almost nothing, it will have to be corporate bonds and corporate equity. I say good luck with that.
It is like going on a long trip and having a two year old in the back seat. When will we be there? You could say soon, but that would not take into account a two year olds concept of time. You could say in a long time, just don't think about it. Or you could just say never. Use the words of a famous politican: Some time in the distant future. Then, suddenly, we arrive. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 15, 2015, 05:30:29 PM So that is the reason that you (deisik) hold no coins, only dollars in your home. Wait, that is risky, not home, but in a deposit box. Wait, that is costly, and pays no interest to mitigate the devaluation, a bank deposit. But wait, the interest rate is zero, it must be in treasuries. But wait, those also pays almost nothing, it will have to be corporate bonds and corporate equity. I say good luck with that. It is like going on a long trip and having a two year old in the back seat. When will we be there? You could say soon, but that would not take into account a two year olds concept of time. You could say in a long time, just don't think about it. Or you could just say never. Use the words of a famous politican: Some time in the distant future. Then, suddenly, we arrive. Yeah, open my eyes, I wanna see it. The collapse, of the dollar. For real, for ever Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: Hazir on August 15, 2015, 05:42:08 PM http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user92183/imageroot/2015/08/LaborProduc2.png
This chart is so sad. What happen in the past that now we have so low compensation for increased productivity? World supposed to be evolving, not devolving. Exactly this problem is touching every major economy. And China is trying to keep it that way. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: TPTB_need_war on August 15, 2015, 05:54:33 PM http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user92183/imageroot/2015/08/LaborProduc2.png This chart is so sad. What happen in the past that now we have so low compensation for increased productivity? World supposed to be evolving, not devolving. Exactly this problem is touching every major economy. And China is trying to keep it that way. Let's fight back and win. I use bitcoin because I want to earn anonymously online. It's also a good investment and I like low transaction fees of bitcoin I love you because I am formerly AnonyMint and since 2013 my goal has been to add more anonymity to cryptoland. Thanks for validating my thesis about a coming glorious, anonymous Knowledge Age (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=355212.0). What I see people essentially saying in this thread is that Bitcoin is autonomous. They can get access to it, spend as anonymously as they take the care to obscure their IP address, and use it without any permission or without obtaining any account with some authority. In short, permission-less commerce (do what you like, no big brother with his dick up your ass!). Most of the terms above fall under the "autonomy" umbrella taxonomy. In my case, I don't have a utility bill matching my current address because I rent. And so I can't comply with the asinine Patriot Act KYC identification requirements that exchanges and financial institutions impose. So no worries, I just go place a buy order on localbitcoins, then go deposit some cash in a local bank and I get the BTC released an hour or so later. Later as the bankrupted Western governments start to limit more how much money you can get out per day from your ATM account (e.g. Greece is an example of what is coming to every Western nation because they are all broke), then if you are holding crypto-currency you can sidestep these restrictions. However, do note that Bitcoin is not reliably anonymous (unless you are for example connecting via a unregistered, public WiFi connection) as your IP address can be traced back to your identity (and Tor and I2P don't really stop the national security agencies from tracking your identity on the block chain) and so the authorities will one day in the future be clawing back against you prosecuting you for violating their regulations by using Bitcoin. This is why I (formerly username AnonyMint since 2013) support the development of altcoins with more robust built in anonymity. Many users will not appreciate the need for this until later when so many Bitcoin users are being busted for past activity all stored on the block chain. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 15, 2015, 05:55:11 PM http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user92183/imageroot/2015/08/LaborProduc2.png This chart is so sad. What happen in the past that now we have so low compensation for increased productivity? World supposed to be evolving, not devolving. Exactly this problem is touching every major economy. And China is trying to keep it that way. You should understand what this productivity is made of. If we substitute one group of machines with more productive ones, why should the increase in productivity thereby be reflected in the increase of wages? Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: TPTB_need_war on August 15, 2015, 05:57:19 PM You should understand what this productivity is made of. If we substitute one group of machines with more productive ones, why should the increase in productivity be reflected in the increase in wages? Because knowledge creation is where all the value is added. The manufacturing is headed towards a zero margin economy. Again go read my detailed thesis linked from the opening post of the Economic Devastation thread. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 15, 2015, 05:58:32 PM You should understand what this productivity is made of. If we substitute one group of machines with more productive ones, why should the increase in productivity be reflected in the increase in wages? Because knowledge creation is where all the value is added. The manufacturing is headed towards a zero margin economy. But knowledge creation (or compensation of) is not the same as non-supervisory compensation, right? The non-supervisory compensation refers to production workers (their wages), but what if there are no production workers (or their skill requirements are actually diminishing due to automation)? This discrepancy seems well-founded if we look deeper into things Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: TPTB_need_war on August 15, 2015, 06:00:33 PM You should understand what this productivity is made of. If we substitute one group of machines with more productive ones, why should the increase in productivity be reflected in the increase in wages? Because knowledge creation is where all the value is added. The manufacturing is headed towards a zero margin economy. But knowledge creation is not the same as non-supervisory compensation, right? Agree. Knowledge creation is being held back to some extent by a $227 trillion global debt funded socialism turning into totalitarianism as a way to prevent adjustment from the Industrial Age and force an NWO eugenics outcome so the old world fat cats can retain power, because the Knowledge Age can't be financed with usury so those bastards are trying to kill it, but they will fail. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: galbros on August 15, 2015, 07:58:56 PM Getting back to the OP, sorry, but I think this is mostly a non-event for bitcoin. The yuan has risen far more over the last few years and so this devaluation is just taking a little of this back. Plus it is designed to help the Chinese economy and so I don't see it really starting a panic.
After all, if people in Venezeula who have seen their currency become utter worthless against the dollar have not rushed to bitcoin, I don't think the Chinese will. Now if it would just slow down their miners dumping bitcoin onto the market..... Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 15, 2015, 08:16:10 PM Getting back to the OP, sorry, but I think this is mostly a non-event for bitcoin. The yuan has risen far more over the last few years and so this devaluation is just taking a little of this back. Plus it is designed to help the Chinese economy and so I don't see it really starting a panic. Indeed, 3-4% devaluation is next to nothing, but how can you be sure that it won't be 30-40% in the next month (or overnight)? I guess that so small a devaluation won't help Chinese exporters either... You may call it a gut feeling or whatever but I went through this before After all, if people in Venezeula who have seen their currency become utter worthless against the dollar have not rushed to bitcoin, I don't think the Chinese will. Now if it would just slow down their miners dumping bitcoin onto the market..... You simply can't compare Venezuela and China. A lone man buying bitcoin in the former would become a vociferous crowd in the latter. I'm curious why I should repeat that again and again? Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: pitham1 on August 16, 2015, 10:11:39 AM Getting back to the OP, sorry, but I think this is mostly a non-event for bitcoin. The yuan has risen far more over the last few years and so this devaluation is just taking a little of this back. Plus it is designed to help the Chinese economy and so I don't see it really starting a panic. After all, if people in Venezeula who have seen their currency become utter worthless against the dollar have not rushed to bitcoin, I don't think the Chinese will. Now if it would just slow down their miners dumping bitcoin onto the market..... There is competitive devaluation in the region as other countries try to protect themselves from Chinese devaluation. This in turn will have a positive impact on Bitcoin. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: Erdogan on August 16, 2015, 11:50:20 AM China is done. They say don't sell shares! Then they arrest the sellers. Control the worlds peoples' free market real democracy with guns. Fucking noobs.
Here is an idea: China stock and housing crash. They can not afford to buy a single blue barrel of oil, nor an imperial ton of iron ore. What then? Money printing! Always smart. But their "peoples money" will not buy anything abroad. Then what? Use their stash of dollars. Sorry treasuries. Then what? Interest rate hike in treasuries. Yellens dream. Then what? Credit contraction.... Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: TPTB_need_war on August 16, 2015, 12:36:32 PM This impacts crypto-currency in at least two ways:
Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: Erdogan on August 16, 2015, 12:40:26 PM This impacts crypto-currency in at least two ways:
I suppose going blue market is the only way. But - it is easy to trade something covertly, other things not so easy. Hair dressing would be ok, but you can not have a capital extensive, effective supermarket as a blue market. Which submarkets can go on, which will be suffocated by state violence? Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 16, 2015, 01:36:09 PM China is done. They say don't sell shares! Then they arrest the sellers. Control the worlds peoples' free market real democracy with guns. Fucking noobs. Here is an idea: China stock and housing crash. They can not afford to buy a single blue barrel of oil, nor an imperial ton of iron ore. What then? Money printing! Always smart. But their "peoples money" will not buy anything abroad. Then what? Use their stash of dollars. Sorry treasuries. Then what? Interest rate hike in treasuries. Yellens dream. Then what? Credit contraction.... Then the eventually of yours slowly but surely turns into the never of mine. There can be only one... And that is the US dollar! Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 16, 2015, 01:41:07 PM Those within the devalued currency regimes may see value in gold or other private assets. More likely they buy dollars though (if they can). Governments in the state of a major money fuck-up (of any kind) are known to restrict the free flow of foreign currencies and precious metals, up to direct prohibition under the threat of criminal prosecution... Let's recall the notorious US Gold Reserve Act of 1933 Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: acquafredda on August 16, 2015, 02:04:29 PM Those within the devalued currency regimes may see value in gold or other private assets. More likely they buy dollars though (if they can). Governments in the state of a major money fuck-up (of any kind) are known to restrict the free flow of foreign currencies and precious metals, up to direct prohibition under the threat of criminal prosecution... Let's recall the notorious US Gold Reserve Act of 1933 Come on dollars can't go up too much. At some point they will have to crash: there has never been something always going up. And the question, obviously, is not if this will happen, but when? I think soon. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: Erdogan on August 16, 2015, 02:58:33 PM China is done. They say don't sell shares! Then they arrest the sellers. Control the worlds peoples' free market real democracy with guns. Fucking noobs. Here is an idea: China stock and housing crash. They can not afford to buy a single blue barrel of oil, nor an imperial ton of iron ore. What then? Money printing! Always smart. But their "peoples money" will not buy anything abroad. Then what? Use their stash of dollars. Sorry treasuries. Then what? Interest rate hike in treasuries. Yellens dream. Then what? Credit contraction.... Then the eventually of yours slowly but surely turns into the never of mine. There can be only one... And that is the US dollar! Then dollar printing... then stagflation ... then hyperinflation ... then a new world money system that fails...then bitcoin and gold. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 16, 2015, 03:22:45 PM China is done. They say don't sell shares! Then they arrest the sellers. Control the worlds peoples' free market real democracy with guns. Fucking noobs. Here is an idea: China stock and housing crash. They can not afford to buy a single blue barrel of oil, nor an imperial ton of iron ore. What then? Money printing! Always smart. But their "peoples money" will not buy anything abroad. Then what? Use their stash of dollars. Sorry treasuries. Then what? Interest rate hike in treasuries. Yellens dream. Then what? Credit contraction.... Then the eventually of yours slowly but surely turns into the never of mine. There can be only one... And that is the US dollar! Then dollar printing... then stagflation ... then hyperinflation ... then a new world money system that fails...then bitcoin and gold. Dollar printing we have already seen, actually even a few times by now (under the disguise of QEs). No sign of hyperinflation in the US so far... What part did I miss? Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: TPTB_need_war on August 16, 2015, 03:48:37 PM China is done. They say don't sell shares! Then they arrest the sellers. Control the worlds peoples' free market real democracy with guns. Fucking noobs. Here is an idea: China stock and housing crash. They can not afford to buy a single blue barrel of oil, nor an imperial ton of iron ore. What then? Money printing! Always smart. But their "peoples money" will not buy anything abroad. Then what? Use their stash of dollars. Sorry treasuries. Then what? Interest rate hike in treasuries. Yellens dream. Then what? Credit contraction.... Then the eventually of yours slowly but surely turns into the never of mine. There can be only one... And that is the US dollar! Then dollar printing... then stagflation ... then hyperinflation ... then a new world money system that fails...then bitcoin and gold. Dollar printing we have already seen, actually even a few times by now (under the disguise of QEs). No sign of hyperinflation in the US so far... What part did I miss? It all ended up overseas in bond issues due to carry trade from ZIRP to higher interest rates in developing markets. And thus now the world is short the dollar (owes $9 trillion as their exports collapse) and the is why the dollar will become incredibly strong until 2017.9. You guys are clueless because you don't read Martin Armstrong and you don't understand international capital flows determine everything. There won't be any hyperinflation. The Fed will raise interest rates now for the next several years and send us into a horrific global deflation and totalitarianism. And no Bitcoin will not win. It was planted as part of the plan to move to trackable digital money so you can be enslaved and expropriated. Any way I am tired of teaching this. Go ahead with your fantasies. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: Erdogan on August 16, 2015, 03:51:39 PM China is done. They say don't sell shares! Then they arrest the sellers. Control the worlds peoples' free market real democracy with guns. Fucking noobs. Here is an idea: China stock and housing crash. They can not afford to buy a single blue barrel of oil, nor an imperial ton of iron ore. What then? Money printing! Always smart. But their "peoples money" will not buy anything abroad. Then what? Use their stash of dollars. Sorry treasuries. Then what? Interest rate hike in treasuries. Yellens dream. Then what? Credit contraction.... Then the eventually of yours slowly but surely turns into the never of mine. There can be only one... And that is the US dollar! Then dollar printing... then stagflation ... then hyperinflation ... then a new world money system that fails...then bitcoin and gold. Dollar printing we have already seen, actually even a few times by now (under the disguise of QEs). No sign of hyperinflation in the US so far... What part did I miss? You missed QE 5. And fuck armstrong. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: TPTB_need_war on August 16, 2015, 03:52:44 PM You missed QE 5. And fuck armstrong. And you will be wrong. Guaranteed. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: Erdogan on August 16, 2015, 03:55:36 PM You missed QE 5. And fuck armstrong. And you will be wrong. Guaranteed. I agree on strong dollar. Timing, I wouldn't know. The first part, china hard landing happens now. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: TPTB_need_war on August 16, 2015, 04:10:39 PM It is not just China. Every where outside the USA is entering hard landing after October. It will accelerate into 2016.
We are heading into 2008 crisis yet much worse. The USA has no incentive to QE as the banks were already recapitalized in 2008/2009. It is Europe which has 30-to-1 leverage in the banks all over Europe (all of Europe will follow China soon). The Fed must raise interest rates because pensions are going broke and because they see stampede of international capital into the dollar. Outside the USA will go into a downward spiral because their currencies & exports will implode at the same time their debt explodes and being short the dollar also. By 2017.9, the strong dollar will have killed all of the USA's exports and then we will see the USA fall into the abyss too. They won't be able to QE again in 2018, because confidence will be blown to smitherenes. The USA public is ready for change and this will intensify as the dollar inflows won't help mainstreet only wallstreet. If they don't get it in the 2016 national elections, they will withdraw their money by 2018. That means the government bastards will have to move to capital controls. Massive totalitarianism coming. You'll need an anonymous coin and one with decentralized mining. GavinCoin (aka BitcoinXT) will be the tracking coin subservient to the State. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: OROBTC on August 16, 2015, 04:15:01 PM ...
Erdogan, deisik, TPTB For at least the short term, the US$ is likely to keep going up. Investors worldwide are fleeing almost every other currency, especially and including the Yuan. China's and Europe's economies are weak. Neither shows any sign of clear thinking re reforms that would strengthen them. Not that the USA is really any better, it's just that we're stronger, for now. The general view (perhaps better stated: the highest probability scenario from my perspective) that I have had for years now is that deflation is likely to happen first, then an inflation/hyperinflation. * * * Martin Armstrong is an interesting thinker who has made some very good calls. His study of cycles is very worthy, especially from an academic viewpoint. His mastery of economic cycles through history is unmatched as far as I have read. [EDIT: Reinhart and Rogoff's book, This Time is Different, is nearly an encyclopedia of debt defaults mostly by sovereigns through the past 800 years is very worth reading, highly recommended] While Armstrong has made some great observations to date, I (still) continue to contend that NO ONE can predict the future with any precision, there are too many unknown and confounding variables. Trends, yes. General timing of macro-events (demographics for example), perhaps. Black Swans, no. Even TPTB's interesting call of a Knowledge Age (described best at the beginning of the "Economic Devastation" thread) may or may not happen as he predicts. That is a trend, maybe an unstoppable one, but I am not going to put all of my money on it... Some money, sure, as there are reasons why a Knowledge Age may indeed be the future. But, I reiterate: No one can predict the future except in a limited way. Since no one can predict the future, limited minds like mine continue to suggest diversification in investments and in time used (for learning for example). Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: TPTB_need_war on August 16, 2015, 04:20:01 PM OROBTC in all due respect for you as very amiable person, I give you 0.1% chance of Armstrong's model failing on the big picture. Little small things yes but not on the big picture.
There will be no hyperinflation at all. There will instead be deflation, rising interest rates, and expropriation via rising taxes and confiscations-by-another-name (e.g. violating money laundering laws, Civil Asset Forfeiture laws, bail-ins, nationalization of pension funds, etc). He has been accurately predicting the future for nearly 3 decades now. His $1 billion computer model predicted the 2008 crisis back in 1995. His model predicts the black swans. Black swans are not really dark, only to those who don't have the data to model them. If you understand Taleb's math on a deep level, and understand on a deeper level what Armstrong is doing, then you would see the so called black swans are only dark because centralized systems (and groupthink) ignore data and thus overcommit to egregious failure. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: OROBTC on August 16, 2015, 04:24:29 PM ...
TPTB If I send you BTC0.1, would then you pay me BTC100 if Armstrong gets something substantially wrong re the big picture? Terms and conditions of any such bet would have to be spelled out explicitly. But I'll take a 1000:1 odds on such a bet... :) :P ;) EDIT: Does Armstrong take into account Taleb's thinking, I have not read enough of M.A. to know. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: TPTB_need_war on August 16, 2015, 04:27:09 PM That proves nothing. My capital can early higher gains interim. Why should I let it sit there and lose ROI.
Reread my post. You are framing your logic incorrectly. Just because I give you high odds of an outcome that doesn't mean opportunity cost means I can earn more betting on that outcome directly. I am betting on that outcome indirectly by putting all my effort into creating better anonymity and decentralization. You can't calculate the return on a bet without calculating opportunity cost. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: TPTB_need_war on August 16, 2015, 04:30:30 PM ...only dark because centralized systems (and groupthink) ignore data and thus overcommit to egregious failure. For example the readers here who never looked at the data and patterns of international capital flows were in the dark about what is coming. They lacked data and a model. For them it is a Black Swan. But not for me. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: Erdogan on August 16, 2015, 04:31:26 PM ... Erdogan, deisik, TPTB For at least the short term, the US$ is likely to keep going up. Investors worldwide are fleeing almost every other currency, especially and including the Yuan. China's and Europe's economies are weak. Neither shows any sign of clear thinking re reforms that would strengthen them. Not that the USA is really any better, it's just that we're stronger, for now. The general view (perhaps better stated: the highest probability scenario from my perspective) that I have had for years now is that deflation is likely to happen first, then an inflation/hyperinflation. * * * Martin Armstrong is an interesting thinker who has made some very good calls. His study of cycles is very worthy, especially from an academic viewpoint. His mastery of economic cycles through history is unmatched as far as I have read. [EDIT: Reinhart amd Rogoff's book, This Time is Different, is nearly an encyclopedia of debt defaults mostly by sovereigns through the past 800 years is very worth reading, highly recommended] While Armstrong has made some great observations to date, I (still) continue to contend that NO ONE can predict the future with any precision, there are too many unknown and confounding variables. Trends, yes. General timing of macro-events (demographics for example), perhaps. Black Swans, no. Even TPTB's interesting call of a Knowledge Age (described best at the beginning of the "Economic Devastation" thread) may or may not happen as he predicts. That is a trend, maybe an unstoppable one, but I am not going to put all of my money on it... Some money, sure, as there are reasons why a Knowledge Age may indeed be the future. But, I reiterate: No one can predict the future except in a limited way. Since no one can predict the future, limited minds like mine continue to suggest diversification in investments and in time used (for learning for example). Good, I mostly agree, but armstrong uses a model, secret too, with adjustments to history. Same as the global warming models. I don't believe in their predictive power. He could be right at the date anyway. Fuck, the dominoes are falling, it could happen tomorrow. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: TPTB_need_war on August 16, 2015, 04:32:41 PM Btw, Peru is a developing market. Should bottom by 2020 and start moving back up.
Knowledge Age won't take over and turn bearings into worthless relics in only 4 years. You have a lot of time to adjust on Knowledge Age. The immediate threat is the coming totalitarianism. The West will continue declining after 2020. No end in sight for the economic devastation in the West because of the $100s of trillions in actuarial unfunded socialism obligations. Developing nations don't have this albatross around the government's fiscal neck, thus they can waterfall collapse now until 2020, then they will bottom. Its all over for the West. Kiss it goodbye. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: TPTB_need_war on August 16, 2015, 04:35:58 PM Good, I mostly agree, but armstrong uses a model, secret too, with adjustments to history. Same as the global warming models. I don't believe in their predictive power. He could be right at the date anyway. Fuck, the dominoes are falling, it could happen tomorrow. Global warming uses fudged data and lies. Armstrong uses data collected from every year since 6000 B.C. He spent $10 million ($100 million in 2015 dollars?) in the 1970 - 1980s just collecting every Roman silver coin issue to reconstruct a more accurate A.I. computer model of how empires collapse. He consistently points out the models need to have data going back 1000s of years, else they lack enough sampling. The patterns of nature, man, and society are not captured in any one 100 year period. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: OROBTC on August 16, 2015, 04:41:07 PM ...
TPTB Agreed re opportunity cost, also agreed that your project may provide an even higher rate of return. I was just hoping that you might take a bet that would yield me some passive income at a great rate-of-return... :) * * * Armstrong, even with his supercomputer, his presumably bright team and all of his work cannot model things for which there IS NO DATA (some Black Swans do not equal other Black Swans, also note that Taleb defined a Black Swan as an UNKNOWABLE & UNPREDICTABLE event, among other things). "The butterfly flapping its wings in Beijing may affect grain trading in Chicago..." <=== You can't model that! * * * Your current project(s) look to be risky but extremely important. Few individuals can / have significantly changed the world (individuals not on teams). You might be the rare exception. Please do not take my arguments on diversification and probability (from my perspective) as any kind of attack on you or Armstrong. As in so much that I read, I want good evidence that I do not have to dig too deeply for, at least at the beginning. I like the "30 second Elevator Version" of new ideas. If it interests me, then I like the details. That kind of thinking has yielded fortunes for canny & hard-working Venture Capitalists (alas I am not one of those, on either count). Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: TPTB_need_war on August 16, 2015, 04:43:24 PM Armstrong, even with his supercomputer, his presumably bright team and all of his work cannot model things for which there IS NO DATA (some Black Swans do not equal other Black Swans, also note that Taleb defined a Black Swan as an UNKNOWABLE & UNPREDICTABLE event, among other things). "The butterfly flapping its wings in Beijing may affect grain trading in Chicago..." <=== You can't model that! There is nothing unpredictable. The entropy of the universe is not infinite unless you consider infinite time into the future. So here and now, there is nothing unpredictable. It is just a question of is your data set comprehensive enough. There is a hidden order actually even to Butterfly events. There are some new data that Armstrong can't see. He can see that anonymous crypto can be a frontier. His computer model predicts frontiers to arise (even MA has mentioned grassroots creative destruction), but he personally can't see it because anonymous crypto was never created before. Entropy is increasing, but it is doing so in an ordered way because again entropy is not infinite. It is the small things and the short-term that can not be predicted accurately because the new entropy is seeping in there. The big picture (macroscopic) entropy morphs less radically than microscopic entropy on each cycle. Time may just be an illusion but it is the illusion we are assuming here for our purposes. No risk no reward. But if you understand the unstoppable trend of technology, it doesn't look conceptually risky. Mankind can not turn back the clock on technology. The big risk is on implementation, human failings, misconstrued marketing, etc.. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: TPTB_need_war on August 16, 2015, 04:55:36 PM Hyperinflation is impossible because the nations are still strong.
Although there is a lot of debt and unfunded social liabilities, the powers-that-be have no intention of hyperinflating away the debts they have given to you the people. Instead they plan to use the debts to enslave you. They will use the strength of Asia and totalitarianism of China also to make this happen. There will be no place for Westerners to go hide from the coming extraction of wealth from every Westerner to pay the debts to their masters. They will extract eugenics from the boomers to cover the debt (they already killing people in Europe is massive numbers in nursing homes). You guys fondling your gold and BTC. This isn't a joke. We are headed into some serious shit. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 16, 2015, 05:22:08 PM Hyperinflation is impossible because the nations are still strong. Although there is a lot of debt and unfunded social liabilities, the powers-that-be have no intention of hyperinflating away the debts they have given to you the people. Now you seem to have come closer to the idea that I expressed earlier in this thread. The breakdown of a monetary system (e.g. that of the US dollar) is an effect, not a cause. The real cause is the fall of the state. Ancient Rome, Germany (after WWI), Russian and Soviet Empires went bankrupt as powers (due to various reasons but surely not financial), and only after that their monetary systems collapsed. Given that, the dollar will crash only if the US loses its world dominance. Until then they can print as much money as they see fit. I massively don't care about anyone (Armstrong or no Armstrong) who predicts anything (in respect to finances) while not understanding or just deciding to ignore this causal relationship. Dollar is strong since the US is strong, not the other way round. And as long as they remain so, the dollar will be strong too... Is the US going to collapse soon? I guess no Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: TPTB_need_war on August 16, 2015, 06:40:29 PM Which nations are weak enough to go into hyperinflation? Not even Argentina, they have almost no debt now. Argentina's problem is the corrupt government and declining commodity prices with global deflation.
Greece? But the EU won't let them. The Troika will enslave them instead. Find me one nation. Maybe some country in Africa or Middle East. Maybe some East European country not in the EU. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: cellard on August 16, 2015, 06:43:41 PM Which nations are weak enough to go into hyperinflation? Not even Argentina, they have almost no debt now. Argentina's problem is the corrupt government and declining commodity prices with global deflation. Greece? But the EU won't let them. The Troika will enslave them instead. Find me one nation. Maybe some country in Africa or Middle East. Maybe some East European country not in the EU. Lol no nation can pay back their debt ever, starting with the USA. http://www.usdebtclock.org/ Have fun paying back all that. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: TPTB_need_war on August 16, 2015, 06:45:16 PM Which nations are weak enough to go into hyperinflation? Not even Argentina, they have almost no debt now. Argentina's problem is the corrupt government and declining commodity prices with global deflation. Greece? But the EU won't let them. The Troika will enslave them instead. Find me one nation. Maybe some country in Africa or Middle East. Maybe some East European country not in the EU. Lol no nation can pay back their debt ever, starting with the USA. http://www.usdebtclock.org/ Have fun paying back all that. There is a difference between never being able to pay back versus default with complete loss of public confidence. Without the EU backstop, Greece would be in that boat perhaps and unable to sell its sovereign bonds to finance the government. As long as you have public confidence and can restructure debts into longer payment terms, the shit continues... If you really want to default that shit, then adopt anonymous currency and don't pay taxes. If a lot of people do that, then yes we will see a default of the bastards. Disclaimer: I am not advising illegal activity. The above was a hypothetical thought experiment. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 16, 2015, 07:22:59 PM Which nations are weak enough to go into hyperinflation? Not even Argentina, they have almost no debt now. Argentina's problem is the corrupt government and declining commodity prices with global deflation. Greece? But the EU won't let them. The Troika will enslave them instead. Find me one nation. Maybe some country in Africa or Middle East. Maybe some East European country not in the EU. And so what? Whatever happens, the most militarily, technologically and industrially advanced country will be the last to die. What you say essentially boils down to claiming that the US is currently ruled by suicides. But if so, it is not clear how it got where it is now in the first place... Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: TPTB_need_war on August 16, 2015, 07:49:42 PM I have no idea what you mean by suicides.
I am saying many nations are strong enough to avoid hyperinflation. Hyperinflation is a domestic phenomenon. It happens when nation becomes so riddled with corruption and socialism, that it can not tighten its belt, lengthen payout terms on bonds, and continue to receive public trust in bond auctions. Then the people stampede out of the local financial system and into alternative assets or abroad. In Zimbabwe wasn't it the socialism that kicked out the white farmers, which was the capital base of the country? Where is that on the verge of happening today? No where. Instead what is happening is the banksters are foisting some bullshit debt on us and telling us to be slaves and pay for the next 100 years. China, Russia, and the USA are run by oligarchies and they are all working together. The faux conflicts are just for show to fool you all. Edit: hyperinflation is not due to printing excessive debt notes (what the Fed has been doing), it is due to change in public confidence. QE was a printing of more debt which ended up as $9 trillion in dollar loans abroad. It was the printing of more debt. Not the printing of more cash. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 16, 2015, 09:19:17 PM I have no idea what you mean by suicides. You say that the West is gonna die (well, that Armstrong may actually say this, I don't care). I ask you how countries, more advanced technologically, more developed industrially, more powerful militarily than the rest of the world, are going to die unless they are ruled by suicides? I just don't get it Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: Erdogan on August 16, 2015, 09:23:49 PM I have no idea what you mean by suicides. I am saying many nations are strong enough to avoid hyperinflation. Hyperinflation is a domestic phenomenon. It happens when nation becomes so riddled with corruption and socialism, that it can not tighten its belt, lengthen payout terms on bonds, and continue to receive public trust in bond auctions. Then the people stampede out of the local financial system and into alternative assets or abroad. In Zimbabwe wasn't it the socialism that kicked out the white farmers, which was the capital base of the country? Where is that on the verge of happening today? No where. Instead what is happening is the banksters are foisting some bullshit debt on us and telling us to be slaves and pay for the next 100 years. China, Russia, and the USA are run by oligarchies and they are all working together. The faux conflicts are just for show to fool you all. Edit: hyperinflation is not due to printing excessive debt notes (what the Fed has been doing), it is due to change in public confidence. QE was a printing of more debt which ended up as $9 trillion in dollar loans abroad. It was the printing of more debt. Not the printing of more cash. QE is printing of electronic base money. They entered a number from the keyboard into their own account. Then they lent it to the state (via the banks, letting them take a cut). Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: TPTB_need_war on August 16, 2015, 09:24:52 PM I have no idea what you mean by suicides. You say that the West is gonna die (well, that Armstrong may actually say this, I don't care). I ask you how countries, more advanced technologically, more developed industrially, more powerful militarily than the rest of the world, are going to die unless they are ruled by suicides? I just don't get it The socialism in the West will strangle the productivity of the West. It will be a battle. The USA will fracture and no longer be united nation. Much strife ahead in the coming decades. It won't entirely die. The USA is rapidly losing those advantages to Asia and the socialism will strangle what is left. Also the USA will be dragged into wars with Russia and China to weaken it. Between 2020 and 2032, the USA will decline and Asia (Shanghai and Singapore) will become the new financial center of the world, displacing New York and London. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: TPTB_need_war on August 16, 2015, 09:27:00 PM I have no idea what you mean by suicides. I am saying many nations are strong enough to avoid hyperinflation. Hyperinflation is a domestic phenomenon. It happens when nation becomes so riddled with corruption and socialism, that it can not tighten its belt, lengthen payout terms on bonds, and continue to receive public trust in bond auctions. Then the people stampede out of the local financial system and into alternative assets or abroad. In Zimbabwe wasn't it the socialism that kicked out the white farmers, which was the capital base of the country? Where is that on the verge of happening today? No where. Instead what is happening is the banksters are foisting some bullshit debt on us and telling us to be slaves and pay for the next 100 years. China, Russia, and the USA are run by oligarchies and they are all working together. The faux conflicts are just for show to fool you all. Edit: hyperinflation is not due to printing excessive debt notes (what the Fed has been doing), it is due to change in public confidence. QE was a printing of more debt which ended up as $9 trillion in dollar loans abroad. It was the printing of more debt. Not the printing of more cash. QE is printing of electronic base money. They entered a number from the keyboard into their own account. Then they lent it to the state (via the banks, letting them take a cut). You focus only on a ledger and not on what was really accomplished. The interest rates were lowered sending capital overseas to find yield. This base money expanded reserve ratios allowing more risk taking and greater leverage. You can also look at it as displacing capital that would have bought USA bonds at higher interest rates. So the USA bonds became printed debt and the displaced capital went abroad to seek yield. It was effectively printing of more fractional reserve debt. It just appeared in other places. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 16, 2015, 09:33:10 PM I have no idea what you mean by suicides. You say that the West is gonna die (well, that Armstrong may actually say this, I don't care). I ask you how countries, more advanced technologically, more developed industrially, more powerful militarily than the rest of the world, are going to die unless they are ruled by suicides? I just don't get it The socialism in the West will strangle the productivity of the West. It will be a battle. The USA will fracture and no longer be united nation. Much strife ahead in the coming decades. It won't entirely die. The USA is rapidly losing those advantages to Asia and the socialism will strangle what is left. Also the USA will be dragged into wars with Russia and China to weaken it. So, as I said before, you think that the US is run by suicides (or madmen). Okay, but you should then explain how they managed to get where they are (provided you are right in your assumption). Otherwise, you will have to admit that you see only a part of the picture and don't understand the logic behind the governing elite actions... Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: TPTB_need_war on August 16, 2015, 09:41:38 PM You mean the elites running the country would be suicidal if I I was correct.
The elites are multi-national. They are strong in totalitarian states like Asia which is the future of the world. So if they lose a bit of centralization in the USA, it is okay because the USA is falling away as the world power. Also I think they believe that a fractured USA is the way to divide and conquer it finally and bring it under a UN and world government system. It will be fractured because the elites will be driving totalitarianism. Use Europe in WW1 and WW2 as a model. Look how socialist and controlled it is now. First devastate, then rescue with open socialist arms. Peace for Europe with EU. And now EU is slavery via the Troika. Different for USA because USA is different than Europe. USA is highly united by language. but coming very divided by Tea Party versus socialists political divide. They'd prefer to get there without the chaos, but how do you neutralize the gun rights activists? Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 16, 2015, 09:56:10 PM You mean the elites running the country would be suicidal if I I was correct. The elites are multi-national. They are strong in totalitarian states like Asia which is the future of the world. So if they lose a bit of centralization in the USA, it is okay because the USA is falling away as the world power. That can be reduced to saying that those in power (in the US) will lose some part of their power. That can happen due to either external or internal factors. War is the most powerful external factor, but don't forget that the US is a beast militarily, so I doubt that Asia can be a player here (by any means). So we are essentially left with internal factors (as it allegedly happened with the USSR)... Which are these, and who is gonna blow up the US from inside? Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: TPTB_need_war on August 16, 2015, 10:07:32 PM All of the above. Internal and external simultaneously. As happened to Rome.
But the true international elite are consolidating global power and have a long range focus in terms of creative destruction. They understand that societies love debt and collectivism and thus the overall trend is always to increase their power. But that is inconsistent with Second Law of Thermodynamics, thus their NWO world has to be a dying one. They may take down billions with them. Nature will help them. Nature does creative destruction too to remove these pesky collectivists. Pandemic might be on tap. We're due. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 16, 2015, 10:14:58 PM All of the above. Internal and external simultaneously. As happened to Rome. But the true international elite are consolidating global power and have a long range focus in terms of creative destruction. They understand that societies love debt and collectivism and thus the overall trend is always to increase their power. This doesn't explain anything in particular. Who is the true international elite, and why would this elite necessarily want to destroy the US? Rome fell due to internal factors. External factors only contributed to its gradual decline through centuries Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: TPTB_need_war on August 16, 2015, 10:17:53 PM Rome was financed on external conquest (military paid with plunder) and then trade with the somewhat indentured colonies (although they gained protection and road network). You can't say there was no external component because it was always there. While it was expanding it worked, then it slowed down and it imploded as Rome was insatiable (taxes and debt had to replace what wasn't coming from plunder). They depleted the land, the irrigation, all resources were strained by the demand to continue exponential growth.
The international elite are: https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21228354-500-revealed-the-capitalist-network-that-runs-the-world/ They want to get rid of their competition, e.g. millionaires, small businesses, Constitution rights diehards. Only their businesses will supply the world in their vision of the future. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 16, 2015, 10:25:02 PM The international elite are: https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21228354-500-revealed-the-capitalist-network-that-runs-the-world/ This thickly smells a conspiracy theory. So these guys want to destroy the US, right? This looks a little queer, since they seem to be already owning the US... Or are they suicidal in their intentions? Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: TPTB_need_war on August 16, 2015, 10:28:25 PM It is no conspiracy that corporations want to increase profits and defeat competition.
Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 16, 2015, 10:29:21 PM It is no conspiracy that corporations want to increase profits and defeat competition. But this leads to the centralization of power, not fragmentation, right? The piece by your link says about 147 superconnected companies that got united to conquer the world. I'm singularly curious how well that lives with your idea of the West death... Given that these corporations are the very blood of it Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: TPTB_need_war on August 16, 2015, 10:34:58 PM It is no conspiracy that corporations want to increase profits and defeat competition. But this leads to the centralization of power, not fragmentation, right? Move your power to where it can be very centralized because the society is already Communist. Devastate the freedom lovers and individualists in the USA, then use your power to invade and conquer the divided peoples who are weakened. I think they'd prefer to take direct control and they are trying. But Armstrong's model predicts a fracturing. The Constitutionalists are stilll numerous in the USA. It will require war to defeat them. We can hope TPTB might lose but they probably would never accept loss. Limited nuclear war, or polluting the water supply, or what ever it takes. They will choose the least risky choice available. By fighting back, we are forcing them into a corner. We had better be prepared to win. I see chaos ahead. The elite know the USA is the remaining major hurdle to their global dominance. They'd prefer a slow burn into centralized collectivism. But Tea Party is about ready to start going radical if they don't get their wishes in 2016 election. Perhaps the freedom lovers get some victories and the USA fractures because different regions are more collectivist than others. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 16, 2015, 10:39:44 PM It is no conspiracy that corporations want to increase profits and defeat competition. But this leads to the centralization of power, not fragmentation, right? Move your power to where it can be very centralized because the society is already Communist. Devastate the freedom lovers and individualists in the USA, then use your power to invade and conquer the divided peoples who are weakened. And how well does this correlate with the announced death of West? From what you now say it seems very unusual to speak of its death. It is rather expanding, not dying... In fact, I'm at a loss now. What is West, and why is it going to devastate the US? Does it mean that the US is not the West you are talking about? Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: TPTB_need_war on August 16, 2015, 10:45:18 PM Who are you referring to expanding? The plight of the people in the West or the international elite?
The people in the West will suffer much reduced standard-of-living relative to Asia. That is the West dying relative to its current stature. http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2012/10/worldeconomy.jpg Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 16, 2015, 10:48:18 PM Who are you referring to expanding? The plight of the people in the West or the international elite? The people in the West will suffer much reduced standard-of-living. That is the West dying relative to its current stature. http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2012/10/worldeconomy.jpg We talked about a "tightly connected group of corporations" that are going to conquer the world. That is surely not something that you would dream of lying on the deathbed... Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: TPTB_need_war on August 16, 2015, 10:54:27 PM The corporations are in it for themselves, not for you the USA citizen. With billions of people in Asia, the corporations can get rich seeing those billions rise from $3 per day to $20 per day, while the Westerner falls from $200 per day to $20 per day. Their profit will increase massively while the Westerner falls down to lower level.
April 2013 was when Snowden made his final moves to attack the USA and destroy it. Who will ever trust the USG again? I never will. The chart below was first produced in the 1980s. And it predicted exactly when Snowden would act. http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/16967 http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2013/12/us-224-cYCLE-2013-1024x820.jpg http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/17972 Quote The US will break up, but it should not go into a MADMAX event as long as we reach resistance from the people. If the people keep just watching their sports and never notice what the governments are doing to their future until it is too late, then it can go too far and that in the MADMAX event the ended the Roman Empire. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: TPTB_need_war on August 17, 2015, 12:10:55 AM I read more carefully Armstrong's post. He says up to 309.6 years from the 224 year peak (which was 2013) to the breakup. So appears the USA won't be breaking apart in our lifetime.
We get to participate in the decline only not in the final breakup. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: TPTB_need_war on August 17, 2015, 09:25:42 AM deisik,
I slept. Here is a more coherent summary: http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/55cd9831dd089502798b4587-1424-864/cds%20map.png http://www.businessinsider.com/the-riskiest-sovereign-bonds-ranked-2015-8?utm_content=buffer25fef&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer That chart reflects speculator expectations for the near-term. It does not reflect speculator expectations for the medium-term. Thus the chart does not convey the information that the northern European banks are highly leveraged to the PIIGS sovereign debt crisis, and so if the PIIGS default then the German banks will need a public bailout. Will the bailout come from the Germans alone or will the debt problem of the EU be consolidated onto a federalized EU with new taxation powers for the EU destroying national sovereignty. For me this isn't even a question. It is clear why this crisis was manufactured by TPTB. Back on the point of whether we will see the End of Government. No. TPTB (the capitalist network that rules (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1149850.msg12159464#msg12159464) the dying Industrial Age) is consolidating economies-of-scale because the Industrial Age is dying (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=355212.msg12151569#msg12151569). So the large fish must eat the smaller fish in order to survive. The people are fooled and believe they need the Industrial Age socialism model (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=355212.msg12158697#msg12158697) and are clinging to that, thus they will ride this NWO down into its top-down centralized, eugenics destiny with the USA declining from April 2013 at its 224-year peak (when Edward Snowden made his final plans to expose the NSA) to an eventual breakup by the 309th year of its cycle (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1149850.msg12159700#msg12159700). So no end of government for the masses. Yet many people will adopt the individually autonomous Knowledge Age (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=355212.0) and break free from that morass much sooner. That is why there will be a mixed outcome, initially with a waterfall collapse outside the USA, then with a long-term declining West and a rising East after 2020. However that East will be much more totalitarian (top-down obedient) that we were accustomed to in the West (http://blog.jim.com/politics/why-east-asians-vote-democrat/) (note my comment on the linked page). Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 17, 2015, 10:54:28 AM deisik, I slept. Here is a more coherent summary: http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/55cd9831dd089502798b4587-1424-864/cds%20map.png http://www.businessinsider.com/the-riskiest-sovereign-bonds-ranked-2015-8?utm_content=buffer25fef&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer That chart reflects speculator expectations for the near-term. It does not reflect speculator expectations for the medium-term. The chart seems to be utterly misguiding, and I'm dubious if it really reflects the speculator near-term expectations. China, the largest single holder of the US government debt (10% of total US public debt) is shown in this chart as more risky than the US. WTF? Honestly, I don't understand what this guy writes about Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: TPTB_need_war on August 17, 2015, 10:56:23 AM The chart seems to be utterly misguiding, and I'm dubious if it really reflects the speculator near-term expectations. China, the largest single holder of the US government debt (10% of total US public debt) is shown in this chart as more risky than the US. WTF? Near-term. Who is in crisis now, USA or China? Near-term. Near-term. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 17, 2015, 10:59:32 AM The chart seems to be utterly misguiding, and I'm dubious if it really reflects the speculator near-term expectations. China, the largest single holder of the US government debt (10% of total US public debt) is shown in this chart as more risky than the US. WTF? Near-term. Who is in crisis now, USA or China? Near-term. Near-term. The US is in crisis since 2008, I guess Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: TPTB_need_war on August 17, 2015, 01:17:41 PM The US is in crisis since 2008, I guess Oh really ??? They recapitalized the banks. Where is the crisis in the USA? Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 17, 2015, 01:29:19 PM The US is in crisis since 2008, I guess Oh really ??? They recapitalized the banks. Where is the crisis in the USA? I speak about real economy, not the financial sector. Oil has dropped more than twice in value within a year. As I'm informed, they didn't invent perpetuum mobile so far. And in the absence of such the dramatic drop in oil prices can only be explained by massive contraction in demand (with all that it means for output)... I don't believe in stories of oil over-production (this would be a consequence of the collapse in demand) Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: TPTB_need_war on August 17, 2015, 01:33:10 PM There is no crisis in the USA right now. The Fed is preparing to raise rates. The dollar is growing stronger.
There is crisis in China, the stock market has crashed, the exports are collapsing, the Yuan is being rapidly devalued. Please don't deny the obvious. That is very annoying. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 17, 2015, 02:13:55 PM There is no crisis in the USA right now. The Fed is preparing to raise rates. The dollar is growing stronger. There is crisis in China, the stock market has crashed, the exports are collapsing, the Yuan is being rapidly devalued. Please don't deny the obvious. That is very annoying. Oil is a key economic commodity, are you going to deny this? If its price drops more than two times (and has much room yet to go), isn't it an omen of something dire going on behind the scenes? China devalues Yuan to help their exporters, since the exports are collapsing... But why are they collapsing in the first place? Market never lies Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: OROBTC on August 17, 2015, 03:56:16 PM ...
IMO, China is much more risky, short-term, than the USA is, a least for investors. The Tianjin explosion may have killed some 1400 people (rumors) as China is doing a full "Fukushima Mode" (lying and covering-up the scale of the disaster). Such blatant lies (more serious than even Hillary's server...) hint at a risky environment for outsiders... Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: TPTB_need_war on August 18, 2015, 02:55:41 PM There is no crisis in the USA right now. The Fed is preparing to raise rates. The dollar is growing stronger. There is crisis in China, the stock market has crashed, the exports are collapsing, the Yuan is being rapidly devalued. Please don't deny the obvious. That is very annoying. Oil is a key economic commodity, are you going to deny this? WTF does that have to do with your assertion that the USA is in crisis? Oil and all commodities are crashing because China and every where outside the USA is. And the dollar is going up and the capital is stampeding into the USA. The USA is not in crisis now. Please don't make me repeat it again. OROBTC, Hillary is hiding she was involved in the Benghazi affair which was arms to Syria and the gas attacks on civilians, creating ISIS, etc.. Tens of 1000s of deaths on her hands at least. http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/tag/benghazi http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/14205 http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/14268 http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/13562 http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/21995 http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/21295 http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/21964 Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 18, 2015, 07:30:08 PM There is no crisis in the USA right now. The Fed is preparing to raise rates. The dollar is growing stronger. There is crisis in China, the stock market has crashed, the exports are collapsing, the Yuan is being rapidly devalued. Please don't deny the obvious. That is very annoying. Oil is a key economic commodity, are you going to deny this? WTF does that have to do with your assertion that the USA is in crisis? Oil and all commodities are crashing because China and every where outside the USA is. And the dollar is going up and the capital is stampeding into the USA. The USA is not in crisis now. Please don't make me repeat it again. Sorry, but you will have to come up with something more substantial than mere allegations. The US remains by far the largest consumer of oil, twice as much as China. Yes, China is in crisis right now, but you still didn't explain why it is in crisis, why its exports are falling. The US dollar vs other currencies is irrelevant here, real economy (goods produced, services rendered) is what ultimately counts... You won't get away from these questions Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: markj113 on August 18, 2015, 07:45:33 PM If you dont think the US is in financial trouble you are deluded.
You think this can go on indefinitely https://i.imgur.com/H45hkAG.jpg Or how about the US Debt clock - https://i.imgur.com/lwxvm32.png worth clicking the link to see just how fast that debt is growing which I believe has been proved to be mathematically impossible to ever pay back - http://www.theusdebtclock.com/ Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 18, 2015, 07:56:17 PM If you dont think the US is in financial trouble you are deluded. The US may not be in financial trouble right now. But its troubles lie much deeper, are a lot heavier to get rid of, and will have more lasting and therefore more devastating effects on the economy and society in the long run... Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: TPTB_need_war on August 18, 2015, 09:14:29 PM Hey dumb ass trolls. In case you can't read, let me remind you that upthread we were talking the short-term Credit Default Swaps map that I quoted and deisik was arguing the USA was in more near-term CDS danger than China.
And I refuted him. And I am correct. Of course I know the USA has worse medium-term and longer-term structural obligations. I wrote recently the West will decline perennially for the next decades, while Asia will bottom by 2020, because the West has $100s trillions in unfunded social liabilities that China and the developing world does not have. Any more strawmen and obfuscation you fools want to hoist on this thread? The US may not be in financial trouble right now... That is what you were arguing for dimwit. Well good to see you refuted yourself, lol. They say never argue with an idiot and this is why. You guys even forget what you were arguing. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 18, 2015, 09:35:20 PM The US may not be in financial trouble right now... That is what you were arguing for dimwit. Well good to see you refuted yourself, lol. They say never argue with an idiot and this is why. You guys even forget what you were arguing. Should I explain to you the meaning of may? But it doesn't really matter since I neither care if you can see the difference (which you obviously can't), nor do I care whether it actually does make any difference (i.e. may there be a financial crisis or not). As I said previously, I'm more interested in what happens in real economy behind the deceptive veil of financial data and abstract figures... All paper will burn Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: TPTB_need_war on August 18, 2015, 09:37:24 PM deisik carry on. You've never been able to carry logic from one post to the next, not since I first debated you in 2013 when I was AnonyMint.
I need to remember to not engage you in any discussion. Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: deisik on August 18, 2015, 09:46:00 PM deisik carry on. You've never been able to carry logic from one post to the next, not since I first debated you in 2013 when I was AnonyMint. I need to remember to not engage you in any discussion. I'm sorry that you have failed to fully embrace the point I was trying to convey. And, I'm afraid, you see only what your eyes want to see... But you're welcome, nevertheless Title: Re: Devaluation of Chinese Yuan Post by: Pab on August 18, 2015, 11:30:58 PM Yuan is now much more valued by market Yuan devalution,China were keepin Yuan stabe last time,that time USAhad his QE,EBC now hasQE Rates in USA and EuroZone are near zero China GDP foorecast is 7% China is rebuiding Silk Road All that news can be good reason for sell off on westerness stocks and can createsome trouble in westerness economys I am not expecting any pump on btc becouse of that |
