Devaluation of Chinese Yuan

[deisik]

It's a double-edged sword. The more China devalues its currency, the better for its economy, and the worse for the other countries. Most people only sees the Chinese exports, but many European companies are selling luxury products in China. Expensive German cars or French handbags. All those products' prices gained 5% this single week.

Eventually, all imported goods must be paid for with exported goods. The money can not change that. Devaluation changes the environment for the exporters, and the individuals working in the exporting industries. To the importers, the effect is opposite. The importers, and the individual consumers buying that imports, will lose. Completing the picture: The consumers of imports are the same individuals as the producers of exports.

Unless you export debt. Now Yuan is cheaper (with respect to dollar), China will export more goods to the US. Thereby the US will export even more debt to China (closely watch the dynamics of the US government debt held by China). And everyone is happy...

It also works the other way round

That is right, depending on perceptions (trust) by the seller of goods, he can take debt and the buyers money instead of goods for a good while. But when the money volume expands enough, and the debt gets too high, that perception changes, and the value of both the money and the debt goes down. The holders of debt and foreign money loses, and thereafter the buyers must offer real value (the crucial eventually word I used).

Eventually should seemingly read never. Given that governments line up to devalue their currencies against the US dollar, this is the most likely scenario. For more than ten years I've been constantly reading about the imminent collapse of the dollar...

But it is still alive and kicking!

[1715018670]

1715018670

[1715018670]

1715018670

[OROBTC]

It's a double-edged sword. The more China devalues its currency, the better for its economy, and the worse for the other countries. Most people only sees the Chinese exports, but many European companies are selling luxury products in China. Expensive German cars or French handbags. All those products' prices gained 5% this single week.

Eventually, all imported goods must be paid for with exported goods. The money can not change that. Devaluation changes the environment for the exporters, and the individuals working in the exporting industries. To the importers, the effect is opposite. The importers, and the individual consumers buying that imports, will lose. Completing the picture: The consumers of imports are the same individuals as the producers of exports.

Unless you export debt. Now Yuan is cheaper (with respect to dollar), China will export more goods to the US. Thereby the US will export even more debt to China (closely watch the dynamics of the US government debt held by China). And everyone is happy...

It also works the other way round

That is right, depending on perceptions (trust) by the seller of goods, he can take debt and the buyers money instead of goods for a good while. But when the money volume expands enough, and the debt gets too high, that perception changes, and the value of both the money and the debt goes down. The holders of debt and foreign money loses, and thereafter the buyers must offer real value (the crucial eventually word I used).

Eventually should seemingly read never. Given that governments line up to devalue their currencies against the US dollar, this is the most likely scenario. For more than ten years I've been constantly reading about the imminent collapse of the dollar...

But it is still alive and kicking!

Yes, the US$ is indeed still alive.  My guess would be that a short-term deflation is close to or now at hand.  If so, the US$ is a safe place for your money.  "Subject to a sudden change."

And the dollar will (likely) eventually collapse...  Why?  ALL other fiats have collapsed in the past.  Mostly due to the same causes: government overspending and money printing.

[Erdogan]

[...]

Eventually should seemingly read never. Given that governments line up to devalue their currencies against the US dollar, this is the most likely scenario. For more than ten years I've been constantly reading about the imminent collapse of the dollar...

But it is still alive and kicking!

You are welcome to bet on never. And yes, with currency wars it wil be even nevererer... (NOT).

[Erdogan]

It will be interesting to see which one of the large fiats holds out the longest. I guess the dollar too, but it is by no means certain.

[deisik]

Unless you export debt. Now Yuan is cheaper (with respect to dollar), China will export more goods to the US. Thereby the US will export even more debt to China (closely watch the dynamics of the US government debt held by China). And everyone is happy...

It also works the other way round

That is right, depending on perceptions (trust) by the seller of goods, he can take debt and the buyers money instead of goods for a good while. But when the money volume expands enough, and the debt gets too high, that perception changes, and the value of both the money and the debt goes down. The holders of debt and foreign money loses, and thereafter the buyers must offer real value (the crucial eventually word I used).

Eventually should seemingly read never. Given that governments line up to devalue their currencies against the US dollar, this is the most likely scenario. For more than ten years I've been constantly reading about the imminent collapse of the dollar...

But it is still alive and kicking!

Yes, the US$ is indeed still alive.  My guess would be that a short-term deflation is close to or now at hand.  If so, the US$ is a safe place for your money.  "Subject to a sudden change."

And the dollar will (likely) eventually collapse...  Why?  ALL other fiats have collapsed in the past.  Mostly due to the same causes: government overspending and money printing.

But their collapse was an effect, not a cause. If you inquire into the history, you will see that the fiats' collapse you're referring to had been preceded by the collapse of the state (due to various reasons), not the other way round (if they are not suicides). In fact, by unleashing hyperinflation (or otherwise defacing the money) states are desperately and deliberately trying to postpone their doomsday...

This is relevant to any form of money, not just fiat (since ancient times). So, ALL monies collapsed in the past (and only gold shines)

[OROBTC]

...

deisik

10-4, rgr that.

Governments cause monetary collapse, yes.

And, also yes, gold has saved many savers through the centuries.  And gold will likely save many more (ah, ask Venezuelans, ah, IF any of them hold much gold...).

Diversification is almost always very smart.  Bitcoin counts as a "diversification" too.

[Erdogan]

So that is the reason that you (deisik) hold no coins, only dollars in your home. Wait, that is risky, not home, but in a deposit box. Wait, that is costly, and pays no interest to mitigate the devaluation, a bank deposit. But wait, the interest rate is zero, it must be in treasuries. But wait, those also pays almost nothing, it will have to be corporate bonds and corporate equity. I say good luck with that.

It is like going on a long trip and having a two year old in the back seat. When will we be there? You could say soon, but that would not take into account a two year olds concept of time. You could say in a long time, just don't think about it. Or you could just say never. Use the words of a famous politican: Some time in the distant future. Then, suddenly, we arrive.

[deisik]

So that is the reason that you (deisik) hold no coins, only dollars in your home. Wait, that is risky, not home, but in a deposit box. Wait, that is costly, and pays no interest to mitigate the devaluation, a bank deposit. But wait, the interest rate is zero, it must be in treasuries. But wait, those also pays almost nothing, it will have to be corporate bonds and corporate equity. I say good luck with that.

It is like going on a long trip and having a two year old in the back seat. When will we be there? You could say soon, but that would not take into account a two year olds concept of time. You could say in a long time, just don't think about it. Or you could just say never. Use the words of a famous politican: Some time in the distant future. Then, suddenly, we arrive.

Yeah, open my eyes, I wanna see it. The collapse, of the dollar. For real, for ever

[Hazir]

This chart is so sad. What happen in the past that now we have so low compensation for increased productivity? World supposed to be evolving, not devolving.
Exactly this problem is touching every major economy. And China is trying to keep it that way.

[TPTB_need_war]

This chart is so sad. What happen in the past that now we have so low compensation for increased productivity? World supposed to be evolving, not devolving.
Exactly this problem is touching every major economy. And China is trying to keep it that way.

Let's fight back and win.

I use bitcoin because I want to earn anonymously online. It's also a good investment and I like low transaction fees of bitcoin

I love you because I am formerly AnonyMint and since 2013 my goal has been to add more anonymity to cryptoland. Thanks for validating my thesis about a coming glorious, anonymous Knowledge Age.

What I see people essentially saying in this thread is that Bitcoin is autonomous. They can get access to it, spend as anonymously as they take the care to obscure their IP address, and use it without any permission or without obtaining any account with some authority. In short, permission-less commerce (do what you like, no big brother with his dick up your ass!). Most of the terms above fall under the "autonomy" umbrella taxonomy.

In my case, I don't have a utility bill matching my current address because I rent. And so I can't comply with the asinine Patriot Act KYC identification requirements that exchanges and financial institutions impose. So no worries, I just go place a buy order on localbitcoins, then go deposit some cash in a local bank and I get the BTC released an hour or so later.

Later as the bankrupted Western governments start to limit more how much money you can get out per day from your ATM account (e.g. Greece is an example of what is coming to every Western nation because they are all broke), then if you are holding crypto-currency you can sidestep these restrictions.

However, do note that Bitcoin is not reliably anonymous (unless you are for example connecting via a unregistered, public WiFi connection) as your IP address can be traced back to your identity (and Tor and I2P don't really stop the national security agencies from tracking your identity on the block chain) and so the authorities will one day in the future be clawing back against you prosecuting you for violating their regulations by using Bitcoin.

This is why I (formerly username AnonyMint since 2013) support the development of altcoins with more robust built in anonymity. Many users will not appreciate the need for this until later when so many Bitcoin users are being busted for past activity all stored on the block chain.

[deisik]

This chart is so sad. What happen in the past that now we have so low compensation for increased productivity? World supposed to be evolving, not devolving.
Exactly this problem is touching every major economy. And China is trying to keep it that way.

You should understand what this productivity is made of. If we substitute one group of machines with more productive ones, why should the increase in productivity thereby be reflected in the increase of wages?

[TPTB_need_war]

You should understand what this productivity is made of. If we substitute one group of machines with more productive ones, why should the increase in productivity be reflected in the increase in wages?

Because knowledge creation is where all the value is added. The manufacturing is headed towards a zero margin economy.

Again go read my detailed thesis linked from the opening post of the Economic Devastation thread.

[deisik]

You should understand what this productivity is made of. If we substitute one group of machines with more productive ones, why should the increase in productivity be reflected in the increase in wages?

Because knowledge creation is where all the value is added. The manufacturing is headed towards a zero margin economy.

But knowledge creation (or compensation of) is not the same as non-supervisory compensation, right? The non-supervisory compensation refers to production workers (their wages), but what if there are no production workers (or their skill requirements are actually diminishing due to automation)?

This discrepancy seems well-founded if we look deeper into things

[TPTB_need_war]

You should understand what this productivity is made of. If we substitute one group of machines with more productive ones, why should the increase in productivity be reflected in the increase in wages?

Because knowledge creation is where all the value is added. The manufacturing is headed towards a zero margin economy.

But knowledge creation is not the same as non-supervisory compensation, right?

Agree. Knowledge creation is being held back to some extent by a $227 trillion global debt funded socialism turning into totalitarianism as a way to prevent adjustment from the Industrial Age and force an NWO eugenics outcome so the old world fat cats can retain power, because the Knowledge Age can't be financed with usury so those bastards are trying to kill it, but they will fail.

[galbros]

Getting back to the OP, sorry, but I think this is mostly a non-event for bitcoin.  The yuan has risen far more over the last few years and so this devaluation is just taking a little of this back.  Plus it is designed to help the Chinese economy and so I don't see it really starting a panic.

After all, if people in Venezeula who have seen their currency become utter worthless against the dollar have not rushed to bitcoin, I don't think the Chinese will.  Now if it would just slow down their miners dumping bitcoin onto the market.....

[deisik]

Getting back to the OP, sorry, but I think this is mostly a non-event for bitcoin.  The yuan has risen far more over the last few years and so this devaluation is just taking a little of this back.  Plus it is designed to help the Chinese economy and so I don't see it really starting a panic.

Indeed, 3-4% devaluation is next to nothing, but how can you be sure that it won't be 30-40% in the next month (or overnight)? I guess that so small a devaluation won't help Chinese exporters either...

You may call it a gut feeling or whatever but I went through this before

After all, if people in Venezeula who have seen their currency become utter worthless against the dollar have not rushed to bitcoin, I don't think the Chinese will.  Now if it would just slow down their miners dumping bitcoin onto the market.....

You simply can't compare Venezuela and China. A lone man buying bitcoin in the former would become a vociferous crowd in the latter. I'm curious why I should repeat that again and again?

[pitham1]

Getting back to the OP, sorry, but I think this is mostly a non-event for bitcoin.  The yuan has risen far more over the last few years and so this devaluation is just taking a little of this back.  Plus it is designed to help the Chinese economy and so I don't see it really starting a panic.

After all, if people in Venezeula who have seen their currency become utter worthless against the dollar have not rushed to bitcoin, I don't think the Chinese will.  Now if it would just slow down their miners dumping bitcoin onto the market.....

There is competitive devaluation in the region as other countries try to protect themselves from Chinese devaluation.
This in turn will have a positive impact on Bitcoin.

[Erdogan]

China is done. They say don't sell shares! Then they arrest the sellers. Control the worlds peoples' free market real democracy with guns. Fucking noobs.

Here is an idea: China stock and housing crash. They can not afford to buy a single blue barrel of oil, nor an imperial ton of iron ore. What then? Money printing! Always smart. But their "peoples money" will not buy anything abroad. Then what? Use their stash of dollars. Sorry treasuries. Then what? Interest rate hike in treasuries. Yellens dream. Then what? Credit contraction....

[TPTB_need_war]

This impacts crypto-currency in at least two ways:

• Those within the devalued currency regimes may see value in gold or other private assets. More likely they buy dollars though (if they can).
• This is the global economic collapse into totalitarianism as destitute Western (socialist) governments try to squeeze blood from every turnip. Thus driving capital and commerce into free trade zones of anonymity and decentralization (if those technologies are sufficiently easy and mature).

[Erdogan]

This impacts crypto-currency in at least two ways:

• Those within the devalued currency regimes may see value in gold or other private assets. More likely they buy dollars though (if they can).
• This is the global economic collapse into totalitarianism as Western government try to squeeze blood from every turnip. Thus driving money and commerce into free trade zones of anonymity and decentralization (if those technologies are sufficiently easy and mature).

I suppose going blue market is the only way. But - it is easy to trade something covertly, other things not so easy. Hair dressing would be ok, but you can not have a capital extensive, effective supermarket as a blue market. Which submarkets can go on, which will be suffocated by state violence?