Bitcoin Forum

my intuition says: we're sitting on a rocket about to be ignited

my rational mind tries to find explanations for the intuition:

• ECB Paper, ZeroHedge coverage / ... taps whole new reservoir of potential supporters and enemies, this might initiate wider public/academic discussion
• I see an above-average amount of newbs trickling in that seem to be quite educated and understanding already (not your typical gamer kid)
• Market turmoil ahead with the reward halving
• Long consolidation period has been going on
• Ongoing and increasing distrust of fiat money and banking system amongst the general population
• Bitcoin fundamentally rocksolid and more and more people "get it"
• All this taken together might push bitcoin beyond the next "critical mass" checkpoint of adoption / public awareness within the next 1-3 months.
  
• ...
• rocket ignition

don't jump off ;)

I have the same feelings, the only thing holding me back is of course worry.

you could've just said "The Secret Rocket"  :D

Not going to happen.

BTC will only take off once there is a killer use for it. Either mobile payments or electronic payment on the Internet. Before that, it will remain somewhat of a curiosity.

don't worry, be happy!  ;)

Thanks for the reminder  ;D

There already is.

theirs a bunch of them

Then my mom would be using them (the best measument device for these kinds of things)  ;D

For you it's either 1 or 0 huh?

My girlfriend's mother still won't/doesn't use the internet. That can't be a good measurement device lol

Wait, Bitcoin can't be used for electronic payment on the Internet yet?

I'll bet you 10BTC that it can!  :D

Wait, but it can't be used for mobile payments yet?

With the halving only 6 weeks or so away, I quite surprise the price hasn't started to go up.
Guess no-one cares.

the experts think it's priced in ;)

you mean yes or no?  or maybe do or die?

+1 OP

Its sort of like there is a lot of tension building up at the moment. I cant take it much longer, against all advise I have put everything I can into BTC, because it is a good idea whos time has come.

I have picked a few net things before their time that I thought would work and did, I just never had the money nor I suppose the will to back it.

the only way is down or side ways for 2/3 months, dear OP deal with it
https://i.imgur.com/V87i9.gif

My same tought.
Eventually, the price will rise anyway.

There several already: drugs, and asset protection (tax evading included). More than enough to back our funny money and then some.

I am instead worried by the attention of the "authorities" (witnessed by the ECB paper): if they are able to cap the world price of gold and silver for decades, just figure what they could pull out to kill BTC.

I suspect that even the weird Nefario's sudden paranoia may be related to it ("they" are probably beaming some mind control ray straight into his skull 24/7 from the black copters).

my guess is you will see a 10,000 coin dump hardly move the price and you'll still be in denial

short squeeze, coming right up!  ;D
http://www.aimhighprofits.com/wp-content/uploads/Juice.gif

It's not like they will securitize (is that the right word for putting a paper layer on something?) bitcoin and sucessfully suppress the price by naked-shorting the crap out of that bitcoin paper. In addition to that: there would be no "gold price" if gold was used as money throughout. Demonetizing gold and silver is a lot easier than demonetizing bitcoin, because bitcoin has lower transaction cost and risk than paper. It worked well with the metals because people preferred paper receipts because they are easier to carry around and more divisible (read: transaction cost is lower). It's interesting in this regard to read something about "imposing minimum reserve requirements on virtual currency schemes" in the ECB paper. Sorry, went off on a tangent here.

I agree these are powerful people bitcoin is up against and I also agree they will try to hit bitcoin hard at some point (not within the timeframe I suggested in OP, 1-3 months) - probably in many different ways. I said specifically "hit bitcoin" and not "hit us", because they can threaten all the Nefarios they want, there will still be the dread pirate roberts.

The most effective weapon they could use would kill themselves, too, btw: rollout of a sound money standard ;)

oh, don't worry 'bout me. I have to deal with my intuition being wrong all the time. I specifically hedge against that.

https://i.imgur.com/V87i9s.gif

whoops? where 'd the fat dude go?

More like T-3weeks!

yep, we're half way through the current difficulty adjustment period. Only one more to go after that.

http://bitcoinclock.com/

I'd like Bitcoin to stay right where it is until we've had a few more years ramp-up in regards to infrastructure. If "they" can control world financial markets, what makes you think they would bat an eye at spending billions to save the profit centers making them trillions? As soon as the banks realize Bitcoin is a threat, the jig is up. If we don't have a massive network already in place with measures to protect it, we're boned.

what about W.O.W. gold?
shouldn't they worry about that threat too?

lol bitcoin is FAR from being a threat...  

This assumes that Bitcoin is actually a threat to banks and the banking industry. There are enough Microsoft Windows users out there with computers infected with all sorts of malware to keep the banks very profitable should Bitcoin become mainstream. These users will deposit their Bitcoins with the banks for the same reason people in the 18th century deposited their gold with the Rothschilds: Fear of theft. In many ways the impact that Bitcoin will have on banking is to turn back the clock say 100 or 200 years and may ironically end up saving many banks and bankers.

ECB paper:

W.O.W gold: type 1
linden $: type 2
bitcoin: type 3

type 3 == problem

as steamboat says: we're only getting stronger with time. Maybe there's a point of no return.

so the weekly macd say down

https://i.imgur.com/3Y2W0.png

SS also say side ways or down

https://i.imgur.com/almlf.png


rsi say up or side ways
https://i.imgur.com/SIPfk.png
adx already say the past trend is dead

https://i.imgur.com/tAsVZ.png


because OP did hold 300 000 bitcoins and he say UP UP have no connection  ;)
http://www.spiegel.de/netzwelt/netzpolitik/hacker-waehrung-bitcoin-geld-aus-der-steckdose-a-765382.html

 :D

But Adam says we are going up.
And Adam says we are going up.
And Adam says we are going up.
But Adam says we are going up.

FTFY lol  ;D

Oh I see, that is becoming more complicated than I thought  :o

would a few weeks of trading toward 11.50 change any of these indicators?
I   THINK   SO!  ;D

He has spoken. BUY.  :D

One 'killer use' might be Greek and Argentinian citizens smuggling money out of the country after a currency devaluation.  This requires them to buy bitcoins before the collapse however, which no one really knows the date of.  Value of bitcoin goes up.  Greeks buying ASICs and mining doesn't help the value of bitcoin, as they would look to sell ASAP to pay for the hardware purchases.

A negative side effect of this however would be Europe and possibly its allies (USA, etc) putting pressure on bitcoin exchanges to not take 'illegal' funds from nations where currency controls are present.  MtGox et al are near useless without integration into the global banking system (how else does one transfer money to MtGox?).  Does MtGox being in Japan make it more immune to outside influence?  No, as the USA just needs to remind Japan who it is that provides security guarantees for the nation.

+1 Good post.

I've been wondering about this. Clearly the exchanges are Bitcoin's Achilles heel, and the points states could attack/overregulate if they so wished - the exchanges doing their darndest to be AML/KYC compliant is exceedingly sensible. However, are there countries such as, say, St Kitts & Nevis, Costa Rica, etc. where such services could be established relatively free of hassle, along the lines of online gaming?

You are clearly delusional.

But keep up the good work!  ::)

Agreed. Services that protect your privacy are another great match for bitcoin.

In fact, yesterday I was shopping for a VPN service and settled on https://torguard.net/ - I was pleasantly surprised to see them offering Bit-Pay as an option. First time I ran into a site accepting bitcoin in the wild (without looking for it specifically). It is moments like that when you realize that bitcoin is here to stay.

My opinion is there are distinct phases for bitcoin - one being 'edge' processors converting into other currencies, and ultimately - bitcoin has enough momentum where you don't transfer outside the system at all.

The rub, of course, is you have to get to the other phase - then they can't touch you, at least via banking channels, anyway.

Nice talks here !

IMO, bitcoins are doomed to be mass-adopted within a decade.  Any price it will trade wont matter much.  As sometimes, I hope it will trade as a real currency, without going in and out with other currencies..

2 big problem may slow down wide use, outside of other currencies..  Law enforcement against BTC, and some major flaws in developpement.  I'm pretty sure law enforcement will be too slow to react, and devs/miners will be able to keep things going.

Since ten years, I saw in my crystal ball, a lot of swing in ratio against other currencies.. 1000 EUR / BTC is not impossible imho. But it wont matter that much, as it will be a sure indication that BTC are on the way to be self trade without the need to touch other currencies... That is the best scenario, and quite possible within a decade.

Anyway, 21st Dec is'nt the end of the world as we know it ?

;)

was my 2 satoshi !

Ha! I wish, dude. I started mining in early February 2011 with one 5970. Managed to mine 1,300 coins until late 2011 at which point I turned the miner off and gave the card to some dudes in Prague.

Of course I'm interested in the exchange rate going up and I would profit from that. Hoping that a forum post would make that happen is naive. I simply had my intuition talk to me and thought I'd post that on the forums for discussion and to get a feeling about wether others feel the same way.

It seems the crowd is divided. It also seems that people try to "prove" what they want to happen is likely. That's probably part of why I'm a bull and always have been, I admit that. The other part is that I believe in the fundamentals of Bitcoin.

That doesn't make sense. If they want to "smuggle bitcoins" and buy ASIC for acquiring them, they would specifically NOT sell the coins, because they are exactly trying to turn EUR into BTC.

I need to get rid of my crumbling fiat! I know, I'll buy ASICs (which don't seem to exist yet) and sell the coins I mine to get my fiat back!

ah, you put that a lot better than I did ;) And more funny!

Sorry, for posting of topic.

So this is you?!

Thanks dude, without you I still wouldn't know about Bitcoin

NO.

For the post count.

EDIT: myself's quote is now cut off thanks to BFL and other spam.

OP=Original Poster=molecular

yeah, it is me ;). you're welcome.

W.O.W. gold, Adam? You're far to informed about bitcoin to compare it to game currency, sir. Bitcoin is now, and will continue to be, a threat to bankers. Even if bitcoin never reaches the critical mass needed for popular adoption as a store of wealth or currency, it is proving the technological infrastructure needed to empower the masses to wrest their freedom from the hands of their owners has already been developed and implemented. By planting the seeds of doubt in society's mind that the notion "this is how it has always been, and there's nothing we can do about it" is quite evidently no longer true, bitcoin has set in motion the progression toward enlightenment that must occur if society is ever to be free of the bonds of central banking. The realization that free markets need not depend on a corrupt fiat system which fleeces them with reckless abandon to facilitate the buying and selling of goods undermines the power of the central bank. For if the people chose to slough off the burden of financial debasement and taxation, and chose instead to adopt an alternative currency that cannot be debased or manipulated, they renounce the power given to the banks and restore it to the people. This is the greatest threat Bitcoin poses to banks. It is not competition in the global financial market, it is the awakening of the people.


but of course you already knew this, and were just poking fun, right? :P

banks do not fear bitcoin.

they find our little experiment interesting.
they understand we are trying to take over!  :o
but they feel invincible, and are having a good laugh about it.

everything is going according to plan  ;)

dead cat bounce Ъ  :-\

a leaky gas tank of the rocket  ::)

hey naima, thanks for avatar change. your old one made me feel uneasy.

I see bitcoin as more of a threat to government than to banks. Banks are businesses, if they can make money they dont give  a crap HOW they make it...

governementson the otherhand, once they get their mind set on something can really do some damage. they have the power to strong arm businesses into doing their bidding if needed which includes keeping banks from doing business with known coin users or even trying to arrest users themselves. making it illegal would be the easiest way to stop bitcoin...

and of course.. it would be in fighting the war on drugs..


'murica!

 The halving will happen in november in no more than 3 weeks.

I have a slightly different angle: banks are in the business of buying up as many hard assets as possible. The fiat money scam is just a way for them to extract these assets from the population. In the end, it's about power. "He who control the money" and that stuff... it's true.


bureaucrats and politicians are but cogs in a machine, subject to pressure, greed and fear. And yes: that machine can do some damage by strong-arming businesses (and the population in general). Price fixing, all kinds of regulations "in the name of the people", but really against them in the end. The war on drugs fits this description, too.

They might somehow outlaw bitcoin, but they will not succeed in shutting it down and it will remain a tool for the people to re-empower themselves.

"no-one cares"? Everyone cares and the halving should be priced in "completely" by now, because everyone knows about the halving and has made up his mind on the implications.

It's possible however that the market under- or overestimated the effect and it will keep correcting it's stance even after the halving happened.

You didn't include the election or the upcoming tax changes in the U.S. as one of the reasons.

- http://www.forbes.com/sites/robertwood/2012/10/17/no-matter-who-wins-the-election-higher-taxes-are-certain/


- http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204789304578088931525397120.html

So there could be additional amounts of cash newly available for investing and some of that might end up at Bitcoin exchanges.  Today's selloff in the stock markets includes some who are dumping so that their capital gains occur in 2012.

this has been my contention all along.

IMO, the doubling in the ratio of exchange, due to the halving, occurs this spring/summer, when we got from 5$ to 10$
Meanwhile, I've bet BTC would be traded over 20$ on the 1st Jan 2013, I guess for other reasons !

I'm split as you can see.. so let's bet about the price on the 1st Jan on betsofbitco.in (http://betsofbitco.in)

My screen tells me that you were right.
The rocket has been filled of gas and is now taking off.
Let's see if this one will crash in the see or reach the moon!

I don't put much stock in "feelings" compared with math. However I feel it also. I'm buying some more this weekend.

Oh no, this is not a confirmation. I was "feeling" longer term and much bigger rocket. It could be the first stage, though.

Waiting for my funds to clear at Dwolla so I can get all the way in on this ride.

more on that please
http://i1264.photobucket.com/albums/jj488/spinegod/my/tumblr_m4p9yuPz1S1qg39ewo1_500_zpse3e96f13.gif

RALLY TIME

http://gifsforum.com/images/gif/funny%20gifs/grand/it%27s-dinner-time-funny-gifs-eccbc87e4b5ce2fe28308fd9f2a7baf3-119.gif

I admit the ultimate confirmation is when we'll be in the moon just before crashing to the sea (or on the way to Mars)
Now let me reformulate
Given what my screen tells me, my intuition says that you are right.

The day when all you guys are silently buying all the bitcoins instead of cheering here that's the day when we'll really taking off.  :-*

True that. I'm only screaming RALLY, because I bought my bitcoins a few weeks ago and I'm getting ready to cash out at $15 or so.

hehe, love it! I can accept being right that way. Let's hope my being rights lasts a long time.

The problem here is: NO FIAT.

I have a feeling you shouldn't do that.

We'll be taking off when 'buying bitcoins' makes no sense. I haven't bought bitcoins in well over a year and I encourage you all to join me in collecting as many as you freaking can. (buying bitcoins is so 2010)

so you want people to collect bitcoins without buying them?

Ahhh maybe he means "earn" as in real economy/jobs for BTC that kind of thing - not speculation buying.

Buying is the only thing that keeps pushing the price up though.

More currency instead of asset use could potentially give bitcoin some extra value. That means you would be able to exchange a bitcoin for more than the equivalent fiat money value in terms of goods. Of course that would lead to drastically more buying because there is a strong extra incentive.

Why not?

The real thing holding the market back is a few people can dump enough coins at any one time to crash the market, if they wanted to.

I have >6000 coins. If I sold them all today at once, the market would take a dump belly and there would be some panic buying and selling.

If someone with 100,000 or more dropped them all at once, btc would be pennies.

The prisoners dilemma:
If everybody were to sell (or better use) part of their hoard over time the market would become more and more healthy as the fear of dumps depreciates. In terms of the dilemma that would be to cooperate.
On the other hand if everybody hoards there is the increasing fear of dumps which results in violent outbursts in the market price. That would be defecting in terms of the dilemma.
So right now almost everybody is defecting in an iterated prisoners dilemma, that's the worst strategy....

But you know, even very smart people can act stupid when in a horde.

at the moment it would take about 600,000 BTC for btc be pennies, but this is not true, because if someone start selling those amounts, would rise quickly big bid walls that would slow the fall.

Considering that is one market order only existing bids are considered. It would bounce, for sure but it would get there if only for a moment.

True, really only would get a spread of $11, until new bid walls were lifted, since nobody is their right mind move a ask wall from $12 to $0.5 lightly...

LOL, that would be an epic dump

http://cdn.memegenerator.net/instances/400x/18386079.jpg

Unlike in the prisoner's dilemma, you can very well use Bitcoins (i.e. cooperate in your terms) without reducing your expected reward from future price increases: by simply restocking your BTC regularly.

I happily spend, donate and trade Bitcoins all the time without my savings wallet getting touched. Unless your strategy is to hold even the last bit of your wealth in Bitcoin, there is no prisoner's dilemma here.

Of course you are right. The Prisoners Dilemma is an oversimplification but there is an aspect of it. The problem is there are people who are even hoarding the Bitcoins they buy regularly and spend nothing.
Although I have no idea how many, but by observation on volatility it seems significant. I've read a paper recently which explains periods of high volatility or "hazards" by the strategy of certain investors to hold a certain percentage of total in an asset. This is what causes these spiky movements in-betweeen calm periods. So it's not only hoarding to be blamed but the overal investment strategy which leads to it.... even when every participant in the market acts rationally.
This is highly chaotic and a slight change in fundamentals can lead to drastic results.

I agree. If I were to speculate on the causes, I'd say that to a great extend people are holding on to their coins not so much until they are worth a fortune but until there is something useful they can spend them on. You know, there is only so many alpaca socks you really need ;)
The situation seems to be better in the US, but for the rest of the world, the amount of goods and services that can be purchased for Bitcoins and that one really needs is still rather limited.

Many people seem to happily pledge to buy Reddit gold, donate to the EFF or Wikipedia if only they could use Bitcoin for that. Sure, some probably do so in part because they simply want to reward Bitcoin acceptance, but most would probably genuinely like to help these organizations and for any number reasons prefer not using credit cards or PayPal.
Until people find a better use for their coins I can not blame them for holding on to them or even enjoy trading/speculating with them a bit. In any case, I don't really see hoarding as a long term problem of Bitcoin.

It seems to me that you're just trying to troll the rest of the community by disputing bitcoin with pseudo-intelligent bullshit.

I completely agree with that.

As for the rocket analogy:
I think we are still in the blueprint/prototype stage...

The corollary is that after experimental rockets were designed and built they had a penchant for blowing up on the launch pad or soon afterwards.  It took many tries to get consistent successful results. 

No here is the paper I was referring to: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1282711
It may be that I didn't understand it well enough or falsely applied it's conclusions, but I was certainly not trolling.

you sure did grossly misapply the conclusions of that paper to Bitcoin!  i didn't even have to read the paper, just the abstract.

you're totally missing the fact that the entity studied was gubbermint.  what source of funds do gubmints have that the rest of us don't?  why, the printing press!  that's what enables them to prop up assets to maintain price fiction.  of course that dynamic is unsustainable and will lead to volatility and bubble busts.  does Bitcoin suffer from that same dynamic?  of course not.  yes, its theoretically possible that all the USD being printed or borrowed could be causing Bitcoin to rise if it is just another ponzi asset.  but i don't think so.  Bitcoin is its own self contained new form of money that cannot be printed ad infinitum by a particular corrupt elite group like gubmint.  what's really happening is a paradigm shift from a bad system to a good honest system.  and that will be self sustaining.

the other problem i have with your reasoning has to do with hoarding.  no doubt that is going on with Bitcoin.  you see it as a bad sign; i see it as a good sign.  ppl are hoarding for a reason; the value of Bitcoin has not reached its equilibrium.  the collective wisdom of its market sees a "fair" price as being much higher than what it is currently.  why?  b/c its so new and the majority of ppl haven't heard of it.  the fundamentals behind Bitcoin are so strong that current hoarders are correctly estimating that the price should rise as awareness becomes more widespread.  most ppl "know" that the current fiat money system is corrupt and favors a select few.  but only a few of those same ppl know about Bitcoin.  that's going to change and fast.  hoarding should be viewed by you as a positive sign as it indicates a just and fair application of Gresham's Law.  ppl are "RunningToBitcoin".  hey, i better grab that site name before Trace does as i just coined a better site name than his.  ;)

I fail to understand what it has to do with the prisoner's dilemma or the game theory in general, but anyway...
Yes, hoarding (or lack of liquiduity) is a huge problem of Bitcoin caused by its underdeveloped economic infrastructure. Yes, it is one of the main reasons of Bitcoin's huge volatility. And yes, it is one of the most discussed topics in the bitcoin community. But it is not a fundamental problem caused by bitcoin's very nature. It is part of the phase we must go through and we wish that it ends soon. I have noticed that your posts mostly consist of saying why bitcoin is bad and how its price is bound to fall and stay very low. Don't get me wrong, I appreciate constructive criticism, but what you provide seems to me as pointless trolling (bitching and moaning) - hence the color of your ignore button.

Let's do something useful for a change : bombard Amazon with emails about why they should accept Bitcoin as a payment method, will you?

another thing about hoarding.  you assume just b/c hoarders hold a "large" number of coins that they are going to "dump" them at any second and crash the price.  as i said above, they're hoarding for a reason; the price has not yet reached it "fair equilibrium price" which most of them are concluding is much higher than it is now.  yes, its not a science as much as you'd like so there's no way to determine exactly what number that is or when it will be reached.  but that's also the beauty of subjective value.  every hoarder will decide what that fair price is on the way up; $20, $50, $100, $1000, $10,000 who knows?  they will unload at different points along the way dampening volatility.  fair money will lead to less volatility in the long run, not more.  of course we had huge volatility last year but that was growing pain. look at the volatility since then.  its getting less and less as more ppl understand what Bitcoin is all about.  participants are getting less scared and more confident and thus less likely to dump.  

I actually encourage you to press that orange button if you really think I am trolling and/or an idiot.

Anyway: I mentioned two different topics, or attempts at explanation. If you don't agree with em fine, but at the very least post a rebuttal of the points you think are fallacious in detail, don't accuse me of something.

Sorry, ignoring people is against my beliefs. Not even Goat made me press the button!

I certainly don't think you're an idiot, I thought you were a troll, but now I'm not sure. Generally, I do agree with some (or even most) of the points you make but repeating them over and over again seems pretty pointless to me. The bitcoin economy is underdeveloped, we should try to change it. Unfortunately, I'm not of much help because I live in a shitty country and my english language skills a quite limited, but you could invest your time and effort in building the bitcoin economy one e-mail at a time. Think about it.

Sorry to interrupt, i just drop this one here https://twitter.com/JoeCascio/status/269641282450776065

no freekin' way!  are u kidding me?!  :D :D :D

I would say pretty unlikely, although in this Report  (http://www.arte.tv/de/eine-internet-waehrung-aus-algorithmen/6988058.html) (sorry German only), there is a guy from Google, stating that Google watches possibilities how the Bitcoin protocol could be used. So they are at least interested.

given that Mike Hearns works for Google, this has been thought to be a possibility for a long time.  now with Wordpress's announcement and the tone of it...

Well its just speculation, but seems pretty plausible to me considering that one of the google emploees made bitcoin library for java.

Yeah, when you buy, do it on mtgox, when you sell, do it locally in order to not move the price ;>

Google employees get to spend 10% of their time at work, working on anything they wish. G-bitcoin might have stated as a pet project that is now getting some serious attention.

Mike Hearn ring a bell? This guy is a google employee and he's been helping bitcoin on the technical side since at least early 2011 (implemented bitcoinj, for example) and really can be seen as an innovator or visionary who thinks several steps ahead (for example: smart contracts, pay to policy (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=92421.0)). See his presentation at the conference in London: https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=mD4L7xDNCmA

Now, this doesn't imply that it's likely that google would embrace bitcoin in such a fundamental way as to integrate a bitcoin client into GWallet. On the other hand: google has been seen to make quite big bald moves at times, so I wouldn't rule that out at all. It would certainly dwarf anything we've seen so far and surely get the rocket going.

Very interesting, thanks for linking that.

and now it's easier for a big player like Google to say, "what?  Wordpress is doing IT!"

I suspect Google will wait a few months to let WordPress be the guinea pig.

I would have expected more of a price rise with the wordpress news just like I would have expected a huge move down off of GLBSE closing.

Seems like the market ignores the news for the most part.

well, this is what i was talking about above to EM about how the market is maturing along with the depth.  volatility actually decreases with a sound money the more established it becomes.  the chart paints a huge multiyear triangulish oscillator with the whipsaws dampening into a consolidation pattern that will break up.  i think we've just started that.

a 6.3% move in roughly a day (from 11.0 to 11.7) is in other markets (even the volatile silver, for example) considered a big move.

Also: the wordpress news not only triggers existing bitcoiners to buy, but it also generates new bitcoin users and introduces a lot of new people to bitcoin that didn't know about it before (thankfully, wordpress "gets it" and embraced bitcoin for the right reasons and also says so). In a mid-term view this is even more bullish then a couple traders reacting to news.

aka: the daaash for the digital caaash ;>

you love it.  admit it.  ;)

admitted. both meaning and the sound of it.

You forget: This is bitcoin. 6.3% moves mean nothing. We just had a 25% drop in October on two occasions in two days each.

big moves like that will not happen any more. as the market gets bigger 2 things happen

1) The market is more capable of handling big dumps
2) Coins become more distributed, meaning less people have enough bitcoin to crash the market

I think we are seeing this effect now.
if you look back you find that price swigs are getting smaller.

there is more and more fiat out there, however, so big rallies are still possible, no?

it goes both ways unfortunately... because the market will not allow a crazy swing up or down unless its justified with new development / news.

look at the log chart you'll see what I'm talking about.

Wanna bet they will?  :D :D

I'm sorry but you acting like there is a complete science to this is retarded.

Bold for emphasis. Not all movements need to be on news/developments.

Hahaha  ;D

your right, if someone buys 100k bitcoin in one shot ... etc.
but their is some truth to what i say. the market is growing, and wild swings are fading, that much is clear.
you remember that 7.20 wall that we hit OVER AND OVER yet could not break it?
that was 1 dumb ass ( pirate40 ) controlling the price and profiting from it.
that kind of influence is going away.

the market moves because of the crowd moving it, not 1 guy.

;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ROFL

Even Gavin says, which I believe too, "there will be growing pains"......don't think you've seen the last of it.

Never sit on a rocket :P

http://smartcanucks.ca/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/rocketchair.jpg

idk looks fun   ::)

What goes up must come down lol

TIL    8)

I think your reasoning "(2) Coins become more distributed, meaning less people have enough bitcoin to crash the market" is valid and I also think that price swings up are getting smaller (because/if liquidity increases). However the price swings up cannot be argued using above reasoning and that's probably why you switched your reasoning to "because the market will not allow a crazy swing up or down unless its justified with new development / news", which is a lot less convincing than the "distribution" argument, which only works for the bitcoin side.

*pats self on back*

My intuition was correct so far, lets see if it plays out accordingly in the coming weeks and months.

Hopefully BTC will be $50 each by 2013, and I will be closer to becoming a millionaire.

Slow and steady growth is what I would prefer. $50 by 2013 most likely means another crash.

Slow and steady growth (if we can call the period from July 1st 2012 until now steady growth) would take us to almost 50 by the end of 2013.

I wouldn't call July until now steady, considering all the drama and the $15 minibubble lol

I approve of bumping the post with the lolrocket gifs in it.

Ground Control to Major Tom
Ground Control to Major Tom
Take your protein pills and put your helmet on

Ground Control to Major Tom
Commencing countdown, engines on
Check ignition and may God’s love be with you

Ten ,Nine,Eight.....

(emphasis mine)

https://i.imgur.com/oqNrP.png

ah, it feels so good to pat myself on the back and kick myself in the balls.

Dear myself, deal with it.

molecular , you were basically right. The amount BTC has increased since your first post would be considered a big rally, if it was anything other than bitcoin.

$12 or $15 here we come!!!

https://i.imgur.com/xVAEZ.jpg

As seen here the RSI over 1 month or longer suggests down.  10 days or under however 'doesn't see a problem' with the current price/activity.  I'm not selling.  My tendency is to go with the suggestion of the shorter-term chart because the impression I'm getting of the amount of new money coming into play is making looking too far back deceptive.

https://i.imgur.com/ijboX.jpg

Having said that, even on the 1 month chart, the RSI on the 6-hourly, says all is well :)  I don't think this current bear charge is going to go very far for very long before some fresh young bullocks come start bushing them back a bit (just

nice
We took something like +80% in 3 month and the direction is vertical...
We left earth.. .Houston,Do We've Got a Problem????

Necrobump, only to say:

Kudos molecular.  ;D

The call of the century :)

Molecular for pres

thanks guys. I should probably listen to my intuition more often.

And in the spirit of decentralization, let's hope we won't need a "president".

Has the rocket been lit yet? Or are we just warming up the torch? lol

OP was spot on. Good job.

brilliant.

what say you about the current market, molecular?

He said in the wall thread that we will go up explosively in Tuesday, I told him that I think we Asian bulls will charge in Monday, let's see who is right in the end. ;)

Monday is a good bet, because I probably won't be able to sell any fiat until Tuesday.  >:(

You know what I like most about this thread? Cynic daytraders may get a few things right day in day out. But to foresee the greatest rally ever you really need to have some faith in this whole thing.

You know what I like most about this thread?

??

http://www.bannedinhollywood.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/rocket-fail-banned-hollywood-17.gif

This just never gets old  ;D

Haha. Just because my gut feeling was right at one point doesn't mean I can tell the future now.

I think Bitcoin is fundamentally sound and we're not in a bubble.

I like this post. What are your intuition about BFL and Avalon?

i liked that thread a few month back.
now even more :p

Imo we have not been truly ignited. The rocket is merely starting its engine.

My intuition says difficulty will rise. :-)

:D

Good call man.. XD

My intuition says this topic is relevant again ;)

Rocket Refuel - Check



All systems prepare for liftoff

crap... i thought this is a new thread...

it was dated nov 5 2012


lol

Exactly. Insane amounts of fiat popping up on Gox's orderbook, far more than the amount of fiat when we were > 200 per coin, and still going up fast.

Volitilty is great for making money. Buying at 94 95 and selling at 96 is getting boring.  ;D

I think we will soon be caught up in another rally like the last one. Bids are rising and asks are declining and media attention is massive with new stores accepting BTC everyday. I just hope it doesn't end like the last one.

well yea i mean sell for gold or silver or some new crypto, not fiat =P

at some point though bitcoin will become overvalued (that could be right now but i doubt it)

Fiat available is not the driving factor behind the price, though. BTC available is much more reliable as an inverse indicator.

Nevertheless, it's nice to see about 21 mil on the orderbook.

They want cheap coins.

It's not really bullish, nor is it manipulative.

Here comes the ignition!

http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2013/04/18/bitcoin-buzz-draws-western-union-moneygram/ (http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2013/04/18/bitcoin-buzz-draws-western-union-moneygram/)

wtf. If anything makes sense for these guys is to become local BTC/Fiat exchangers.

bitcoin already transfers quite easily by itself.

+1

BOOOOOMMM goes the dinomite!! :o

Admittedly I'm answering  a 5 month old question but:

My business is using it right now. Tens of thousands of others are too.

From an investment point of view if you wait until the killer app appears you've waited too long.

But good call :)

I agree.

If they did BTC/Fiat exchange in their numerous branches they could probably charge a pretty high fee and people would still use it. However, they'd cut into their current bussiness model. It'd be a far-sighted move and probably save them in the long run, but I doubt they're capable of doing it.

At any rate, they've seen the writing on the wall, and instead of moving to crush it they're moving to work with it. Their business model is one of the most fundamentally threatened of all finance related, and BTC still needs a reliable mass way to convert cash -> BTC and back. Western Union might be able to help and still draw some profit out of it. Win-Win!

I don't think they feel threatened. If so they would have start a FUD campain or ignore btc as a first stance. Btc is still VERY anecdotic.
I think they have some clever guy up in the company ( the boss?) and also consider that they have already did some drastic changes. They use to be a telegraph company.
So i think they are just considering an opportunity.

Now if they accept bitcoin all the competitors will rush into it that is for sure because the others will be at risk of being left behind.

It is exciting to watch, no?

Vladimir, you're a bright fellow, so we'll forgive you the cadoob faux pas... It's CADO, man! How could you miss that?  :D

They would have to be extremely naive to not be threatened by bitcoin. If they are not naive, they know what would happen by trying to put it down (how well did that go for the music industry?). The absolute best thing they can do is to modify their business model to incorporate developing technologies like this (as they have done many times in the past) and as they can make a good buck from it, they are doing so. Kudos to them if they create the first worldwide physical exchange infrastructure for bitcoin. Both bitcoin and WU will win big from this.

regarding WU and BTC.....

There is another aspect of the Western Union business that I haven't seen touched upon yet...  That is their Bill Pay service.  There are a LOT of companies that have bill pay agreements with WU.  

For example..  Lets take a well known bank.. Citi ..  If you are coming up on "late charge day" and you need to pay your mortgage NOW ..  you can take cash down to your local WU office and pay your mortgage IN CASH and have the payment credited same day.  

Same thing with my local electric company...  if you need to pay your bill TODAY or have your electric shut off, you can pay cash at the local WU office.

A lot of other banks and utilities have this same agreement with WU.

So, for those of you who keep saying "When I can pay my mortgage in BTC then.. bla bla bla.."  ... well get ready for the bla bla bla.. cuz if WU starts dealing in BTC, you can do exactly that.. PAY YOUR MORTGAGE WITH BTC.

Sigg

Anybody think we're on a secret rocket now? I can't help but feel like that's the case now... by all metrics, the user base has more than doubled since last November... and it seems like a wave of US-based exchanges opening up is just around the corner...

This just popped up in my feed. These were the days, if only I had bought 50x more Bitcoin back then! lol!

I had the same feeling this morning as well. This feeling is very familiar.

Austin Global Exchange is a solid start to the wave. https://agx.io/

Has been a pleasure working with them the past week. Excited for regular trading to start and for them to add Fiat trading pairs.

Yes. I feel the same. A familiar feeling. We have started building our base, and the pressure is just starting to grow. I think/feel we have a couple of months of boredom before the big movements. The pressure is just not strong enough yet. But it is there.

I am right there with you.  BitChicksHusband and I were telling some friends to buy right before it was $200 in October saying that it had been stagnant for a while but we expected a big jump soon.  Of course, our friend did not act very soon and waited until the price was $400 to buy. ;)  Oh well. 

But it does seem very similar for some reason.  The calm before the storm.

I too was thinking to resurect my favorite post.
Nice to see I m not alone.

Now you know?

1. New ATH by end of July

2. $5000 by year end.

CHOOOOOO CHOOOOO!

I concur, except for the chooo chooo part.

I was thinking this exact same thing yesterday. Hard to know how long it will take for it to start rising. My guess would be it's still at least a few months off. There are lots of people who first learned about bitcoin during its rapid rise last fall from ~ 100 to above 1000, who are not accustomed to its volatility and who are fearful after seeing the bad news from China, bad news regarding MtGox with some pundits declaring this will be the death of bitcoin, the spate of hackers stealing bitcoins unrelated to Gox, and drop in value from 1200 to 600 which to them is a HUGE drop. I think they will bounce back into euphoria when the following things happen: 1) a few more months go by and bitcoin does NOT die, ie its value does not plummet below, I dunno, 100 or 200 which was the prior support level in their eyes; 2) new high-powered professional exchanges come online, dispelling the argument that MtGox was the death of bitcoin; 3) absence of any other really bad news items (high profile bitcoin individuals arrested for torturing baby kittens, that sort of thing); 4) one or two other big-ticket good news items. I am hopeful that something like Trezor will make bitcoin more user friendly for a wider audience. But I am particularly looking for something like ebay accepting payment in bitcoin to be the trigger for the next huge rally beyond the prior ATH.

However, I think it's still a little early for that huge rally. Trendline analysis puts the value of bitcoin today at $837 / BTC.
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10+%5E+%28+%28+3073%2F1000000+%29+*+%28+number+of+days+since+jan+3%2C+2009%2F+days+%29+-+2.909514+%29

A rally in the 5000+ range before Dec 31 2014 is certainly attainable. The trendline puts the value at that time at $6519 / BTC:
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10+%5E+%28+%28+3073%2F1000000+%29+*+%28+number+of+days+from+jan+3%2C+2009+to+dec+31%2C+2014%2F+days+%29+-+2.909514+%29

Keep in mind that the April 10, 2013 peak of $266 was almost 4 times above the trendline of $75 / BTC:
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10+%5E+%28+%28+3073%2F1000000+%29+*+%28+number+of+days+from+jan+3%2C+2009+to+apr+10%2C+2013%2F+days+%29+-+2.909514+%29

and the Dec 5, 2013 peak of 1200 (I forget the exact date and exact number) was about 3 times above the trendline of $409 / BTC:
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10+%5E+%28+%28+3073%2F1000000+%29+*+%28+number+of+days+from+jan+3%2C+2009+to+dec+5%2C+2013%2F+days+%29+-+2.909514+%29

the point being that a strong rally can easily go higher than the trendline. Bear in mind that volatility should be expected to decrease with time, so a peak of, say, 2 times above the trendline at some point this year would not violate expectations. 

Well, crap. if everybody is in agreement the price is going to go up: that probably means I missed another buying opportunity.

November 05, 2012, 11:41:30 AM
^^^
History records that after several months of waiting your rocket blasted our asses into orbit.  :D

Lots of people would disagree! I still see articles almost every week (feels like every day) declaring the death of bitcoin, usually by an academic economist.

Yeah, those smart arses were always right about Bitcoin, lol

if everyone thinks the price is going to go up its probably going to fall as everyone is fully invested and there is no one to buy the coins the bears are selling.  A market always follows the path of maximum possible pain.

+1

was gonna say this. an efficient market moves to minimize profits. always.

If everyone thinks the price is going up than nobody is selling because everyone means, well.. everyone.

if everyone thinks the price is going to go up, they're already entirely in BTC. since everyone is in BTC, there is no fiat left to actually push the price up. the first person to actually realize this is incentivized to sell before anyone else does to get the best price for their coins, and for fear of selling too late at a possible loss. everyone else follows. this is where game theory helps in understanding price behavior.

My post was only sarcasm to bullshit wanna be serious theoretical responds like one you just did to phillipsjk's funny sarcastic one. Do you seriously think the stuff you posted in last 2-3 posts on this thread is some kind of wisdom?

Jeez, I wouldn't want to be at party with some of you guys, you're boring as rain in October.

I think about BTC as a central gravitational point for all others cryptocoins, like a sun... even at exchanges what I see is the need to convert to btc... Sounds like what US dollar is to others fiat money.

fair enough. wasn't sure if philip was being sarcastic or not because of Poe's Law -- sounds exactly like something a newbie would actually believe :D checking out philips post history and join date though it's obvious he is an oldfag like us :P

that being said, i figured it would be worth pointing out in case of newbie lurkers who might actually think that such a line of thought is rational or correct haha

also i find a particular elegance in game theory, so sue me :P or just avoid the parties i go to. i would rather be at the party with the mathematicians and scientists anyway ;)

--arepo

that would be a fun, lol  :D ;D

for producers maybe. not consumers.

Right now the huge majority is Bearish on BTC; both here and in the "real world".
Is there any doubt about that?


EDIT:
VC $ is pouring in, but the mood is very Bearish.

fuel fuel fuel !

You'd think so, wouldn't you... just not at the moment. Anyone care to guess why?
1) It's priced in already
2) There's a lag between investment and these technologies becoming useful to consumers - watch this space (6 months?)
3) Something else.

3) Real Money™ are buying coins off the exchanges, either from large holders or directly from miners. This obviously will not influence the price, except to reduce the amount available for dumping. Once this supply dries up, all we will have left is what's on the exchanges. A large enough holder can drive the price up and make money doing so.

Good theory. Makes sense but do you have proof?
FWIW I suspect all three play a role, since
1) Speculators haven't been entirely shaken out - they're still buying the hope
2) Popular investment will only come when the technology makes it possible/easy
3) What you said.

If there was Proof the price would not still be as low as it is. Real Money™ is all about speculating and making sense of data points and patterns.

What we know: Businesses are adopting bitcoin, big names are interested, legislation is in the process of being made, the number of active wallets is increasing. All good news. Money is pouring in, there simply is no way it is not. So it must be doing so in such a way as not to move the market. That leaves few options.

Ok... quite possibly, but let me play devil's advocate a moment.
Big names are interested but they are chiefly dealing with infrastructure. Bitpay, for example, doesn't need to hold bitcoins for long to make a profit.
There are lots of new active wallets. But this could be due to the post-Gox loss of confidence in exchanges. People don't want to keep coins or money on an exchange now. Withdrawn bitcoins = new and active addresses. Sold coins = falling prices on exchanges.
Legislation is being made, but the situation is still unclear: big money is waiting until they know it's safe.

Also possible. It then becomes a bet: What do Big Money think the future will bring? And what do I think they think?

I was being serious, actually. The difficulty is that I probably won't be able to buy BTC for at least a month. By then, the market may have "corrected." I guess I should have used the future tense, but with no time-frame, that would be a tautology (there will always be missed buying opportunities).

This is roughly where I'm at now. I'm still of the opinion that bitcoin is overpriced, though. The real question is what effect new investment, Big or Popular, will have. I tried to ask this in another thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=505406.0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=505406.0)) and got mostly useless responses (with one or two exceptions).

My intutition tells me that we will see old "pay per click" Vs new "crypto tip" paradigma in next year on social network arena ...

That would be cool. There may be resistance from big social networks... Facebook failed with Facebucks or whatever they were called and might be bitter about it. Apple certainly not keen and I'm not sure Google will want the challenge to its creaking Wallet system.

My intuition tells me I have missed the rocket ship... FML  :'(

you need an emergency injection of andreas antonopoulos. it may not be bitcoin specifically where all of the big money will be made but you have absolutely not missed the crypto (in general) rocketship. this thing is just getting started. wait until other forms of finance besides only money move onto the block chain. wait until finaincal securities move onto the block chain. wait until people blockchain crowed funding over takes kickstarter. wait until people start bootstrapping corporations. wait until we have self executing 0 counter-party risk derivatives contracts on the blockchain. jesus wait until distributed autonomous corporations.

you havn't seen anything yet.

+1

lol..

Well said...Agree 100.1 ( BTC...)...oopss %... ;D

BUT...I am NOT holding my breath...for distributed autonomous GOVERNMENT(s)...Then call Jesus... ???

DAC's could in theory out-compete government. In a sense they could make government irrelevant. Of course not early ones, that would take a while.

Well...and in practice isn't it already happening...?...even without the help of Bitcoin ...I believe "plain old cash" is just enough... ;)

yes i am personally very optimistic about the future. the nsa stuff and the police state stuff is scary but when compared to all of the positive trends i dont think it stacks up. things are generally moving in a very positive direction imo.

Speculation based on intuition?!





great....

Behind our intuition is a computer with many Exaflops with highly sophisticated pattern recognition software. Our logic is driven by an emulation layer that is slower than a 1970s pocket calculator. You think our logic is superior just because you are more aware of it?

My intuition tells me that trying to predict the future is shaky at best.
 :)

Point of order: Our brains don't exactly do Floating-point operations. Much like the Bitcoin network does not do a lot of Floating-point operations. Contrary to popular belief, the Bitcoin network does do some floating-point operations: mainly for stats.

But yes, our neurons are very good are recognizing patterns (and ignoring them). AFAIK, our brains are biased toward new information (which implies recognizing old information).

Nicely put! Logic helps streamline simple routine tasks. All great deeds were achieved with intuition. Personally I prefer mixing trading decisions (intuition) with money management (logic)

I'm strapped in and ready for the ride of a lifetime and I'm glad to have the rest of you here with me.  Big ups to the bears and strong hands.  8)

Bitcoin is just ready to burst through $1k and continue its inevitable trip to $10k any moment now.

 ::)

I think you are wrong, NEVER sell your bitcoins for paper.

It's gonna happen either late this year or in 2015... we still have a lot of FUD left to go

+1

Instant Anu fan.

One of these rockets maybe

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6qJh9upqW8

None are carrying people (I think), so not in bad taste.

Buckle up people we all know that rockets are not known for giving a very smooth ride.  Watch any rocket take off and you will see just what I'm talking about.

Yep, they need lot of fuel and some momentum to start moving, after that is routine :D

The longer we stay on the ground re-fueling, the more fuel we will have ;)

the rocket will have sufficient fuel soon.

not matter how much, the EU/Greece thing can cause the rocket engineers to start the launch sequence

Yes!!!
Exactly what I think. Reading this thread is making me happy, and hopeful!

FTFY
Even tho the thread does provide some hope that were going to see the orbit once again, i doubt that will happen soon, and even more doubtful is that it would have anything to do with Greece,
that is now recieveing additional funding in hopes of the situation calming.
Try again in 2 years, after the halving, and when people forget about every exchange hack we had so far.

cheers

I tend to agree, we need to be patient...

on the other hand: bitcoin is known for surprises ;)

best quote of the year, long live crystallization, because once it's break... at the speed of light trough crystal.
(Unless you have a small pipe to fuel :D).

We are sitting under something that is about to be ignited.

I wonder if it is a rocket or a ton of TNT. Or a rocket that will blow on ignition