my intuition says: we're sitting on a rocket about to be ignited

[seleme]

If everyone thinks the price is going up than nobody is selling because everyone means, well.. everyone.

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[arepo]

If everyone thinks the price is going up than nobody is selling because everyone means, well.. everyone.

if everyone thinks the price is going to go up, they're already entirely in BTC. since everyone is in BTC, there is no fiat left to actually push the price up. the first person to actually realize this is incentivized to sell before anyone else does to get the best price for their coins, and for fear of selling too late at a possible loss. everyone else follows. this is where game theory helps in understanding price behavior.

[seleme]

If everyone thinks the price is going up than nobody is selling because everyone means, well.. everyone.

if everyone thinks the price is going to go up, they're already entirely in BTC. since everyone is in BTC, there is no fiat left to actually push the price up. the first person to actually realize this is incentivized to sell before anyone else does to get the best price for their coins, and for fear of selling too late at a possible loss. everyone else follows. this is where game theory helps in understanding price behavior.

My post was only sarcasm to bullshit wanna be serious theoretical responds like one you just did to phillipsjk's funny sarcastic one. Do you seriously think the stuff you posted in last 2-3 posts on this thread is some kind of wisdom?

Jeez, I wouldn't want to be at party with some of you guys, you're boring as rain in October.

[knightcoin]

I think about BTC as a central gravitational point for all others cryptocoins, like a sun... even at exchanges what I see is the need to convert to btc... Sounds like what US dollar is to others fiat money.

[arepo]

If everyone thinks the price is going up than nobody is selling because everyone means, well.. everyone.

if everyone thinks the price is going to go up, they're already entirely in BTC. since everyone is in BTC, there is no fiat left to actually push the price up. the first person to actually realize this is incentivized to sell before anyone else does to get the best price for their coins, and for fear of selling too late at a possible loss. everyone else follows. this is where game theory helps in understanding price behavior.

My post was only sarcasm to bullshit wanna be serious theoretical responds like one you just did to phillipsjk's funny sarcastic one. Do you seriously think the stuff you posted in last 2-3 posts on this thread is some kind of wisdom?

Jeez, I wouldn't want to be at party with some of you guys, you're boring as rain in October.

fair enough. wasn't sure if philip was being sarcastic or not because of Poe's Law -- sounds exactly like something a newbie would actually believe checking out philips post history and join date though it's obvious he is an oldfag like us

that being said, i figured it would be worth pointing out in case of newbie lurkers who might actually think that such a line of thought is rational or correct haha

also i find a particular elegance in game theory, so sue me or just avoid the parties i go to. i would rather be at the party with the mathematicians and scientists anyway

--arepo

[seleme]

i would rather be at the party with the mathematicians and scientists anyway

that would be a fun, lol 

[Anon136]

Well, crap. if everybody is in agreement the price is going to go up: that probably means I missed another buying opportunity.

if everyone thinks the price is going to go up its probably going to fall as everyone is fully invested and there is no one to buy the coins the bears are selling.  A market always follows the path of maximum possible pain.

+1

was gonna say this. an efficient market moves to minimize profits. always.

for producers maybe. not consumers.

[Bit_Happy]

Well, crap. if everybody is in agreement the price is going to go up: that probably means I missed another buying opportunity.

if everyone thinks the price is going to go up its probably going to fall as everyone is fully invested and there is no one to buy the coins the bears are selling.  A market always follows the path of maximum possible pain.

Right now the huge majority is Bearish on BTC; both here and in the "real world".
Is there any doubt about that?


EDIT:
VC $ is pouring in, but the mood is very Bearish.

[glub0x]

EDIT:
VC $ is pouring in, but the mood is very Bearish.

fuel fuel fuel !

[Cassius]

EDIT:
VC $ is pouring in, but the mood is very Bearish.

fuel fuel fuel !

You'd think so, wouldn't you... just not at the moment. Anyone care to guess why?
1) It's priced in already
2) There's a lag between investment and these technologies becoming useful to consumers - watch this space (6 months?)
3) Something else.

[Ibian]

EDIT:
VC $ is pouring in, but the mood is very Bearish.

fuel fuel fuel !

You'd think so, wouldn't you... just not at the moment. Anyone care to guess why?
1) It's priced in already
2) There's a lag between investment and these technologies becoming useful to consumers - watch this space (6 months?)
3) Something else.

3) Real Money™ are buying coins off the exchanges, either from large holders or directly from miners. This obviously will not influence the price, except to reduce the amount available for dumping. Once this supply dries up, all we will have left is what's on the exchanges. A large enough holder can drive the price up and make money doing so.

[Cassius]

EDIT:
VC $ is pouring in, but the mood is very Bearish.

fuel fuel fuel !

You'd think so, wouldn't you... just not at the moment. Anyone care to guess why?
1) It's priced in already
2) There's a lag between investment and these technologies becoming useful to consumers - watch this space (6 months?)
3) Something else.

3) Real Money™ are buying coins off the exchanges, either from large holders or directly from miners. This obviously will not influence the price, except to reduce the amount available for dumping. Once this supply dries up, all we will have left is what's on the exchanges. A large enough holder can drive the price up and make money doing so.

Good theory. Makes sense but do you have proof?
FWIW I suspect all three play a role, since
1) Speculators haven't been entirely shaken out - they're still buying the hope
2) Popular investment will only come when the technology makes it possible/easy
3) What you said.

[Ibian]

EDIT:
VC $ is pouring in, but the mood is very Bearish.

fuel fuel fuel !

You'd think so, wouldn't you... just not at the moment. Anyone care to guess why?
1) It's priced in already
2) There's a lag between investment and these technologies becoming useful to consumers - watch this space (6 months?)
3) Something else.

3) Real Money™ are buying coins off the exchanges, either from large holders or directly from miners. This obviously will not influence the price, except to reduce the amount available for dumping. Once this supply dries up, all we will have left is what's on the exchanges. A large enough holder can drive the price up and make money doing so.

Good theory. Makes sense but do you have proof?
FWIW I suspect all three play a role, since
1) Speculators haven't been entirely shaken out - they're still buying the hope
2) Popular investment will only come when the technology makes it possible/easy
3) What you said.

If there was Proof the price would not still be as low as it is. Real Money™ is all about speculating and making sense of data points and patterns.

What we know: Businesses are adopting bitcoin, big names are interested, legislation is in the process of being made, the number of active wallets is increasing. All good news. Money is pouring in, there simply is no way it is not. So it must be doing so in such a way as not to move the market. That leaves few options.

[Cassius]

EDIT:
VC $ is pouring in, but the mood is very Bearish.

fuel fuel fuel !

You'd think so, wouldn't you... just not at the moment. Anyone care to guess why?
1) It's priced in already
2) There's a lag between investment and these technologies becoming useful to consumers - watch this space (6 months?)
3) Something else.

3) Real Money™ are buying coins off the exchanges, either from large holders or directly from miners. This obviously will not influence the price, except to reduce the amount available for dumping. Once this supply dries up, all we will have left is what's on the exchanges. A large enough holder can drive the price up and make money doing so.

Good theory. Makes sense but do you have proof?
FWIW I suspect all three play a role, since
1) Speculators haven't been entirely shaken out - they're still buying the hope
2) Popular investment will only come when the technology makes it possible/easy
3) What you said.

If there was Proof the price would not still be as low as it is. Real Money™ is all about speculating and making sense of data points and patterns.

What we know: Businesses are adopting bitcoin, big names are interested, legislation is in the process of being made, the number of active wallets is increasing. All good news. Money is pouring in, there simply is no way it is not. So it must be doing so in such a way as not to move the market. That leaves few options.

Ok... quite possibly, but let me play devil's advocate a moment.
Big names are interested but they are chiefly dealing with infrastructure. Bitpay, for example, doesn't need to hold bitcoins for long to make a profit.
There are lots of new active wallets. But this could be due to the post-Gox loss of confidence in exchanges. People don't want to keep coins or money on an exchange now. Withdrawn bitcoins = new and active addresses. Sold coins = falling prices on exchanges.
Legislation is being made, but the situation is still unclear: big money is waiting until they know it's safe.

[Ibian]

EDIT:
VC $ is pouring in, but the mood is very Bearish.

fuel fuel fuel !

You'd think so, wouldn't you... just not at the moment. Anyone care to guess why?
1) It's priced in already
2) There's a lag between investment and these technologies becoming useful to consumers - watch this space (6 months?)
3) Something else.

3) Real Money™ are buying coins off the exchanges, either from large holders or directly from miners. This obviously will not influence the price, except to reduce the amount available for dumping. Once this supply dries up, all we will have left is what's on the exchanges. A large enough holder can drive the price up and make money doing so.

Good theory. Makes sense but do you have proof?
FWIW I suspect all three play a role, since
1) Speculators haven't been entirely shaken out - they're still buying the hope
2) Popular investment will only come when the technology makes it possible/easy
3) What you said.

If there was Proof the price would not still be as low as it is. Real Money™ is all about speculating and making sense of data points and patterns.

What we know: Businesses are adopting bitcoin, big names are interested, legislation is in the process of being made, the number of active wallets is increasing. All good news. Money is pouring in, there simply is no way it is not. So it must be doing so in such a way as not to move the market. That leaves few options.

Ok... quite possibly, but let me play devil's advocate a moment.
Big names are interested but they are chiefly dealing with infrastructure. Bitpay, for example, doesn't need to hold bitcoins for long to make a profit.
There are lots of new active wallets. But this could be due to the post-Gox loss of confidence in exchanges. People don't want to keep coins or money on an exchange now. Withdrawn bitcoins = new and active addresses. Sold coins = falling prices on exchanges.
Legislation is being made, but the situation is still unclear: big money is waiting until they know it's safe.

Also possible. It then becomes a bet: What do Big Money think the future will bring? And what do I think they think?

[phillipsjk]

fair enough. wasn't sure if philip was being sarcastic or not because of Poe's Law -- sounds exactly like something a newbie would actually believe checking out philips post history and join date though it's obvious he is an oldfag like us

I was being serious, actually. The difficulty is that I probably won't be able to buy BTC for at least a month. By then, the market may have "corrected." I guess I should have used the future tense, but with no time-frame, that would be a tautology (there will always be missed buying opportunities).

[Cassius]

Also possible. It then becomes a bet: What do Big Money think the future will bring? And what do I think they think?

This is roughly where I'm at now. I'm still of the opinion that bitcoin is overpriced, though. The real question is what effect new investment, Big or Popular, will have. I tried to ask this in another thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=505406.0) and got mostly useless responses (with one or two exceptions).

[knightcoin]

My intutition tells me that we will see old "pay per click" Vs new "crypto tip" paradigma in next year on social network arena ...

[Cassius]

My intutition tells me that we will see old "pay per click" Vs new "crypto tip" paradigma in next year on social network arena ...

That would be cool. There may be resistance from big social networks... Facebook failed with Facebucks or whatever they were called and might be bitter about it. Apple certainly not keen and I'm not sure Google will want the challenge to its creaking Wallet system.

[Dafar]

My intuition tells me I have missed the rocket ship... FML