Bitcoin Forum

Where does this number come from?  Easy, most long term Bitcoin skeptics have now done a complete 180 and claim you should invest 1% "just in case".  Even hardcore Zerohedge readers who only believe in gold and aren't into Bitcoin at all say this.  People with low net worths, or not of the investment class, will be more hesitant to do such a move, but many also will.  For the sake of simple calculation, we will say that only millionaires would be willing to risk that type of cash, 1% of their net worth, or $10,000.  

Since there are 16,300,000 millionaires on earth, 16,300,000 x $10,000 = $163,000,000,000 market cap

$163,000,000,000 divided by 21,000,000 Bitcoins = $7761 coins

Market cap doesn't actually work like this though, so the price would likely be far higher with that much real cash going in.

This also assumes they only have one million dollars when these 16.3 million people also include multi-millionaires and billionaires, so they would be investing more than $10,000 if they did 1% of their wealth.  If you don't low ball how market cap works, or low ball the amount of money these 16.3 million people have, the real value would probably reach something like $100k-500k+ while acting soley as something rich people hedge 1% of their wealth in without the mainstream even using or touching Bitcoin.

Much stranger things have happened before:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-10/pure-madness-revenueless-assetless-sync-continues-over-5bn-now-bigger-cablevision-an

You raise a good point, all you need is 14 million people deciding to say "What the hell, i'll buy "one" Bitcoin just in case" for the price to skyrocket.

I see this as a plausible event. Sooner or later rich people will invest 1% or less of their networth in bitcoin, and since there are only like 1 to 3 million bitcoins available on exchange (rough guess), they will really have to pay a lot for those bitcoin.

They are also likely to keep the bitcoin for quite a while, because they likely understand the true value of bitcoin once they realize how limited the amount is.

that reply LOL just made my morning

Nice reasoning, but I think as soon as price rises more coins become available or are retraded.

So it might be a bit high at the moment, especially considering not all millionaires will buy bitcoin.

Nice to see that people starting to put it in their portfolio though :)

It would be far into the tens of thousands if real cash of that quantity was poured in.

It balances out because a lot of millionaires will buy 0, and many will buy much more like the Winklevozz.  I think their average buy price is something like $100 a coin, which is not that low considering how long they've been in it and how high it can go.  Many people like to believe Bitcoin is a zero sum game and think you're just going to make someone else rich by buying some.  People who aren't mentally insane only care about what potential it can bring themselves in the future regardless of what other people make from it.  If it goes to $7000, it doesn't matter a whole lot that the Winklevoss got in $100 or two cheaper.

The Winklevii were buying in 2012. I think their average is somewhere around the $10 mark. They were also personally responsible for the buy that pushed the market cap over a billion for the first time.

It would be pretty bizarre to see a millionaire bun fight play itself out. I don't think they got to where they are today by chucking unlimited amounts around but stranger things have happened.

 :o

If you're the market maker, you gotta buy more to increase the price of the ones you already have.

the winkles average is about $100 per coin

also once the price of coins start rising fast EVERYONE pulls their coins from sale. its the exact opposite of what you would think, but everyone plays chicken waiting for a top.
last time during the big price rise from say 400 to 1000, there were literally 6 000 to 10 000 coins total for sale on all exchanges. I remember it very well. coins started showing up for sale once we stalled out at 1100

but having said that, there is noways all 21 million of those coins will be for sale ever

first of all there are not 21 million coins (yet... but not even close now)

second of all millions of those coins will be lost for whatever reasons

third, a lot of people will be buy and hold no matter what. some coins are just not for sale, as their either bought in on the way up and need to have it go up to make money, or they just think bitcoin should be $100k and will never sell or spend.

fourth, the millionaires I deal with have all spent a lot more than $10k per millionaire. Some are in for $200k to $500k, none have spent $10k or less, its either zero or a lot more than $10k.

fifth, it depends on how fast the money comes online. if it grows in a stable manner, like a 20% increase per year in money flowing in, it might be a stable type rise. But if you get 100% or 200% money flowing in within a year, it will be a vertical spike on price with a vertical crash again.

so in summary if $163B had to flow into Bitcoin, the price at some point would reach $50k minimum I am guessing at a peak spike.
  

Some millionaries entering late and other betting the 5% of his fortune could do this cipher very conservative. I see it more like 32k/BTC and beyond

The OP is pointing out the fact that it would not take an unbelievable amount of capital infusion to see Bitcoin go to astronomical levels. Given the shift in sentiment (with "bad news" not being so bad anymore) and the fact that some deep pockets are starting to have their balls drop (ie: starting to see the massive potential of the tech) it is hard to set a limit on how far this puppy can go. Sorry for all the stupid analogies. 

Next wave is going to be 10fold up, so around 3000 Dollars. But! I don't expect this new bubble before the end of next year, some months after the halving and when we have a new status quo in price and mining  (which will have lost a lot of its attraction by then anyway). Until August 2016 we won't see big bubbles, but slow price increases or waves.

Only question is what will this new price be then? My guess is somewhere near 1000 USD, maybe 900, maybe 1100 before this new bubble will take us to 3k. End result: New (temporary) bag holders will be created but the price will remain in the 4-digit realm. There you have it, mark my words. ;-p

I have my doubts whether any of us can have a very precise vision.

But the next bubble in the $3k to 7K range seems  plausible and reasonable.

I have my doubts whether it will take a year to have such a bubble.  We seems to have pretty decent momentum now, and maybe in the near term (1-3 months),  bounce in the $350 to $$800 territory, but that seems to gradual, and previous bubbles have come fairly rapidly, so it is possibly that the current fuel is going to bring us to $3k to $7k within the next few months.

I doubt that we need to rely on millionaires for such.  Surely, a few millionaires ill jump on board, but we are going to also have additional investment from the various segments of the masses, investing anywhere between $100 and $10k depending on their own level of comfort and/or perception of risk/reward.

Woot!

https://www.btcc.com/news/article/btcc-now-accepting-direct-bank-deposits

Looks like CNBC is more bullish than this thread:

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/03/bitcoin-to-be-6th-largest-reserve-currency-by-2030-research.html

6th? I'd say more like 3rd, after USD and EUR ;)

That went fast, not long ago they bashed BTC and now bombing it as a world reserve currency...lol

This is a reason why you need to save a few whole coins, just in case if it gets there.

By that time it's more likely those two are dead or have converted to using Bitcoin as reserve for their dirty fiat.

China buying not stopping anytime soon.  First we had:


Now we have:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-02/widening-probe-snags-most-senior-chinese-banker-yet-sends-stocks-lower-rba-sparks-co

Slightly unrelated, Max Keiser flipping out about banks in this Netherlands Bitcoin documentary that just aired at around 2 minutes 30 seconds:

https://youtu.be/8zKuoqZLyKg?t=154

An excellent point, and since like you said, market doesn't work like this and this is just a rough estimate, we are talking that a single millionaire could feel lucky or fall in love with Bitcoin and spend WAY MORE than 10K. Millionaires move millions daily in investments, 10K is absolutely nothing for them. A lot more will go above this 10K per investment threshold, no doubt about it.

5% there so far.

Yup. They spend 10k on having their wives' arses plucked. If you take the time and trouble to educate yourself on something like BTC then the chances are you're going to feel the excitement and throw a little more than spare change at it. Then again quite a few didn't get there by being dumb so you'd look for roundabout ways to pile in rather than straightforward market buys. I guess those options would be thin if everyone was at it.

Progress:  6% there.

Still only 6% there, but starting to look more optimistic!

it's more like 4%, 160B/6B is 1/25 100/25 = 4%

i don't know were you see 6%, probably because you estimated the wrong number on the total avaiblable coin? since at 163B it's not 7700 per coin

Which is not impossible to happen in the mid term future (3-5 years from now). I highly believe that we'll see $2k in a year from now. Could be even less.

People who claim that BTC will worth dozens of thousands of USD per coin normally forget that on the market there are already several digital currencies that 1) offer much faster transactions than BTC; 2) offer higher level of anonymity; 3) already solved scalability issue.

BTC was a first experiment of digital currencies and it`s far from being perfect. Nobody know which coins will be #1 in 5 or 10 years.

They are but they are all unproven with very small communities. In this field the confidence is everything and even Bitcoin has hard time to gain the mainstream confidence and not some other alts that have even barely working wallets.

Also don't forget, that potentially all of the features that these other coins have can be possibly added to the Bitcoin. You never know what the development brings and where are we headed in the future!

No, OP's got it totally wrong.

Soon, 1 btc is going to be worth $7890000000000000000000000000000000!!! In near future, like 2340.

don't get MMM to raid bitcoin price, will no good to the bitcoin!
in that case, sell your bitcoin and go long first to get yourself safe.
i don't want bitcoin to fall again because of the ponzi! it would be horrible!

well the money its into the hands of 4% of all polulation at least the millions and thats like 600.000.000.000$ per most rich people and the all usa gives 1 trillion per year into supravit but not like even a 1% of this goes to btc so btc will have just 60bill and for the releagated coins its like 10.000$ per coin if goes like year 2020 the 1% of all fiat into btc

I just did 425/7700 and rounded up heh.

Lottery is one thing what make some lucky people rich and another is OIL  ::)

This is a partially incorrect calculation. There are 16-17 million millionaires, but their average holding is not exactly 1 mil.
You have to take 1% of their total holdings, which are at least ~56-67trillion according to
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millionaire and
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/06/15/millionaires-control-41-of-worlds-wealth.html

1% of 56 tril is 560bil or ~$27000/BTC
1% of 67 tril is ~$32000/BTC

I like how it sounds " even less". I think its very easy to touch it in next six months. Bitcoin had some publicity, maybe not so nice, but people heard about it and for sure they will search what that is, they will make some tests with small amounts.. and I dont see a reason why this 14 mil could not be sold faster then we even think, maybe we will see some big and nice surprise.

The problem is that if you go with 1% of the net worth of everyone with a million or more, a lot of these people are paper millionaires like Donald Trump that have all their money locked up in things like golf courses, buildings, London trust funds, etc.  I was trying to do a very conservative estimate without trying to inflate to best case scenario about the amount of liquid cash roaming around, which is why I just low balled it with 16 million x $1 million.  This is a good number that also takes into account some will not be interested or think it's some kind of bible prophecy devil currency.

Even though it could hit 6 figures a coin eventually, I think things like that also require large economic crashes to force people into something besides paper.  A value of something like $10,000 can occur before the next 2008 crash even gets here though, soon as the 12.5 block reward period hits with 75% of coins already mined.

No need to bring reality into it. Let the Monero believers have their fantasy.

I think like you, we will 3rd

no way, you forgot the RMB (yuan). I am OK with fourth.

Anything but a slow rise is going to be very bad for bitcoin as a currency, which if I'm not mistaken is what it's supposed to be.  A lot of people got burned in 2013, and I think merchants get scared off by price volatility.

Otoh, if it went to $7000/coin, WOOT WOOT!!

Facebook stock halved in price on release then went up 500%.  Currencies in South America are doing similar roller coasters by the day.  Everything is volatile!

$7700 / coin for sure but when? do you have any ETA !

$163,000,000,000 divided by 21,000,000 Bitcoins = $7761 coins
This is really nice. I am glad that I have 1 bitcoin,b ecause if this happen I can be a millionair in the fute.

to see it from a simple point of view..

range 1k-10k should kick in between this halving and the next one(2020), no more than that, then you have the range 10k-100k that should come in the decade of 2020-2030 and that's it

Yes, year 2020 we should go in my mind up to $10k per coin!

At least this is how I see it.

Oh man! I need to get 1 bitcoin now, before that will happen.
Oh well I will just try collecting some.

This actually s got some sense. Imagine what would happen if they would invest 5% each. :))

Seriously, we re far away from that. I d be happy with $2k per BTC in the next 2 years.

Price jumps 10% and then all the crazies come out proclaiming $1 million for a coin.  When you see a crazy like that, just remind yourself of the 2 year bear market we are just recovering from.

Im going to need more than $7761 per coin before i can retire :(

Well that is easily solved, and this advise is for free: Get more bitcoins or spend less.

I think it is going to take a while before bitcoins dollar value becomes > 800$ unless there is a some external impulse. The great thing is that anything can trigger it instantly, so better get yourself some train tickets in advance.

Im actually thinking about biting the bullet at the price they are now.  If its an upword trend then no problem. As usual i buy high and sell low so no point in changing the habit of a lifetime.

Lol, way too slow.

I don't think this is as strange as all the millionaires in the world putting all of their assets into bitcoin.

So I understand the math (thanks for sharing it), why did you select these numbers? What's significant about them to you?

I think OP's main underlying point is a good one. Given the very limited adoption of the coin, there is still a lot of outside cash waiting to come in. Just wait for those institutional investors...

Mostly due to gold fever people and Bitcoin skeptics who disregarded it before are now advocating this 1% number.  Non-skeptics will obviously go much higher.  I wanted to give the most plausible, realistic number of what you can expect to happen after Bitcoin passes the old ATH, because that's the point it would likely accelerate faster to these levels mentioned.  I think the rise over ATH will be $1600, then dump, then $3200, then you'd get more big sell pressure here that holds it in place for a while.

At that point, the money will probably start to trickle in from high net worth individuals as a hedge with a slower rise, with the ability to hit something like $10k before the next 2008 crash.  There will be lots of sell pressure with coins that high in price so lots of people will miss the boat for another big rise with the next banking crash.  After the next banking crash, Bitcoin will be somewhere between $10k-100k, or we'll go back to the dark ages and only gold will be valuable if someone doesn't kill you first.

As other people said, I low balled the price by counting every millionaire as only having one million dollars and not any more.  I wanted to be conservative and account for things like actual liquid cash available, funds tied up in trusts, land, or general disinterest, etc.  If everyone with a million or more hedged 1% of total net worth instead of the low ball estimation I used, the price would probably be more like $100k+ without the next crash even occurring yet.

True, my error, thanks

Up 12.5% since original Nov 2nd 2015 post.

SUCH EPIC :)

The Kwukduck reality check thread.

This thread is not unrealistic.... it's just a matter of networking effects, momentum and timing. 

Another 19x increase from today's prices is completely within the realm of possibilities... ... especially if we zoom out a bit.. maybe 5 years?

a 19x increase from today's prices is also possible within 12 months, but quite a bit more improbable due to actual forces also working to keep bitcoin down.

If we get a 10x increase from today's prices within 18 months, that would be pretty decent.. and I am thinking may be around a 30% chance of accomplishing that 10x to the territory of $3k to $5k.  Am I too pie in the sky?

You guys are so fucking retarded I cant stop laughing.

Just form a jerk circle and dream about $7700 coins.

If anything after a false halving pump we'll see a plummet to $300 after the whales have extracted the money from the stupid and desperate.

corporate fail.

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img910/6019/ug1n3e.gif

True why would the price go to 7.7k. It makes no sense. It may even drop to 250 again. There are never certainties when you invest.
Bitcoin is not different then your average investment.

Those numbers are based on your wishes and they are related with feelings and as such
 they are false! Simple don't put your feelings in business.

None of us really know how prices are going to play out in either the short-term or the long term.


In the short term, we likely can recognize previous highs and lows and therefore approximate our estimations of support and resistance price points that we need to get passed... and if prices move in either direction passed those support and resistance points, it will then affect further dynamics to either continue to move in the same direction or to reverse directions. 

When posters are predicting... blah blah blah.. for sure we are going in one direction or another, they seem to be either minimizing or negating the support or resistance points that have to be traversed first, which is dependent on a variety of factors including momentum, fundamentals and the pervasiveness of the spreading of either FUD or hype.

People who invest with feelings are doing a wrong thing indeed. Business is about being formal and act business wise.
Getting emotional, saying/hoping the price will go to 7700 USD is just crazy.

Just because people place a certain level of probability that prices are going to $7,700 does not mean that they are being emotional.... and it does not mean that they are crazy.

On the other hand, if people are placing unrealistically high probabilities, such as 80% within the next year, then that may be crazy...   The devil is in the details regarding what kinds of predictions and probabilities are crazy and which ones are reasonable... and your level of reasonable and my level or reasonable will likely still be within the realm of reasonable even if we have considerably different views, and yep, surely there are going to be some people who have crazy predictions... and crazy expectations regarding what is probable and what is a long shot.

These expectations are just rubbish. Think about how absurd it sounds. Bitcoin going to 7700 like really?
Promising newbies such high a reward is just plain lunatic and very wrong.

^Another one star banker shill poster on his 5000th brand new spam account.

For sure Bitcoin will go to 7700$ and thats not the end. Why are you wasting your time here if you dont believe in the idea of bitcoin ???  Bitcoin will be THE store of value and sattelement network of the world, basicly the money hub of the worlds economy.

Just because I dont buy in to your "bitcoin will make me a millionaire" delusion makes me a banker shill  ::)

Firstly I dont think the bankers give shit about bitcoin as its insignificant.

Secondly time will tell, lets see if there is a false halving pump.  Then lets see the price pump fall away to low $300's.

Dumb fucks like you are nothing more than "bitcoin" religious fanatics that attack anyone that does not share the same view as you.

Truly pathetic.

Bitcoin is not a store of value as its too volatile.

If bitcoin were to make any true steps to becoming mainstream then governments would simply ban it to protect their power base.  Cryptocurrency will grow and replace traditional fiat but it will created and controlled by governments and bankers and not the general public.

Next you will say "but you cant ban bitcoin" - no you cant, but you can impose huge fines and 10 years + jail time for those caught using it.  Lets see what that does to your mainstream adoption of bitcoin.

I think most people here are just too stupid to realize they nothing more than beta testers for the bankers.

It would be a very long time before the bitcoin market price goes up to $7700. We need to reach $1000 first.

It will reach $7700 if the bitcoin is adopted by 20 million of the people in the world, but it will take some time.

basically people playing around with a few thousand satoshi's are also part of the total bitcoin adoption. a few million of these people won't do much with the price. we need people with money that bring in tens of thousands of dollars. a few million of these will definitely help the price go up a lot. a higher amount of users is nice, but it's money that we need to see the price go up.

It's very doable. When Bitcoin reaches the mainstream and can do global transactions thanks to LN, it will have the marketcap of a major payment processor company. And even if this never happens, we are still gold 2.0, this means trillions of dollars of potential metal holders diversifying in the superior Bitcoin asset.

Who's promising anything?   There are probabilities with everything, and if there is a certain level of increased adoption, then prices rise. There's a lot of ways to get there and a lot of potential obstacles along the way, and whether you are a newbie or not, you have to take information (especially that presented in online forums) with a grain of salt and ultimately come to your own conclusion about what is reasonable or not.

$7,700 is less than a 20x increase from today's prices, which as calculated a $163 billion-ish market cap....     Gold has a $6 trillion market cap, which even with a $7,700 projection for bitcoins would still be 40x larger than bitcoin.... And, a lot of reasonable analysis have already assessed a lot of bitcoin potentials that are quite more functional than gold.... so for example, there a are a lot of real world major contracts that get executed that require liquidity... let's say purchasing some kind of a multi-million dollar asset - a ship full of oil, or a large piece of property.  Easier to transfer the value in bitcoin than gold, and there may be reasons that the person prefers not to use traditional banking (or wants to save on banking fees).  When bitcoin has a larger market cap, it becomes much more feasible to transfer greater amounts of value without affecting price slippage... and in that regard a larger market cap becomes more useful... and reasonably expected to occur at some point in the near future, whether that be within a year or within possibly 10 years.

I am also considering it is highly possible to happen as bitcoin would be the future of world economy like both in payment system as well as investment sector. So, it is highly possible to reach even price levels like $10,000 per one bitcoin.

Bitcoin will be reserve currency in the digital world. It will have the same status of US dollar today.

But this whole mainstream talk, isnt it already passed?

I mean most people can google bitcoin and find this out on their own or hearing on RT. Most people are aware of it, just afraid to get involved in my view.

Most people believe Bitcoin is dead until it passes ATH again.  After that happens, this website turns into a circus again.

If they time it right... they'll register an account here within days of the ATH.

As for the original post .... many of these millonaries probably already hold bitcoin, and bought it cheaper to get a profit (that is what millonaries do, they do not tend to buy things when they are overpriced)

But will it? i thought with the massive price hike weve had already i might have seeen something on the news but the only place i hear about bitcoin is online on bitcoin related sites. I wasnt here in 2013 so im not sure if it was splattered all over mainstream news back then or not?

It's on Zerohedge and stuff like that a lot.  Having it go over $1000 or the price of gold will cause an avalanche of news on mainstream media.  Might start as soon as $800 though.

It will have a bigger status than US dollar, not only will it be the digital reserve currency but it will be one of the best stores of value unlike USD which is only decent for holding for a month tops.

That is right. I think the bitcoin will increase in value in the next few decades. The dollar and other fiat will decrease.

Even half of all millionaires invest 1% in Bitcoin, the price will be over 3k.

https://i.imgflip.com/16m2ag.jpg (https://imgflip.com/i/16m2ag)via Imgflip Meme Generator (https://imgflip.com/memegenerator)

yeah the op really seems generous to the price and its speculation ! by this thread i think now i can see the bitcoin has clear and bright future :D
Keep on holding your coins guyzz something big is gone a happen in near future ! :D

His prediction is just a few years too early. It could happen in 3 to 5 years if the bitcoin is used widely.

Do they tend to hold things that are overpriced? No.

but for the price of more than $7700 bitcoin needs a lot longer than 3-5 years and also it needs a lot more halving to happen so the reward is small enough.

also the adoption (usage) needs to be so big, as in being used everywhere in the world.

When you are describing what is possible and what is not possible in absolutes, you come off as a bit arbitrary.. .in this regard, you are suggesting that $7,700 is not possible in the next 3-5 years, which is nearly pure baloney.

I would phrase such prediction differently.  Whereas, you may have better predicted in terms of a percentage.. less than .0001% chance, whereas, I would suggest the odds are much greater than that... maybe even up to 5%.

One thing everyone needs to consider about bitcoin is that it is a paradigm shifting technology, which means that there have been no other assets or items like it in the past, and accordingly such actuality makes it even more difficult to predict it's upward price potential.  Of course there are potential obstacles along the way, and also there are the clearing of obstacles and learning about the technology.  Accordingly, since the price was suppressed for about a year (maybe longer), there could be an opposite reaction that explosively counter balances the prior extended price suppression.

Sure, nothing is for sure, but the probabilities are much higher than zero that BTC prices could reach $7,700 within 3-5 years and even sooner is quite possible (at least much higher than zero, as you seem to be asserting without any further justification beyond your mere supposed wisdom-filled proclamation).

I think 7700 dollars is possible when the block reward size is increased to 4 MB or higher together with adoption.

No blocksize doesn't play such a big role as you think for a price skyrocketing.
Just because you increase the blocksize does not mean more people will flock in and using Bitcoin.
Furthermore the devs are already working on the improvement of throughput per second.All these improvements combined with layer solutions will offer us more than enough capacity for some while.
Regarding the price it's just needs some insitutional money to push BTC up into mid 4 figures and higher.
Or imagine 1% of the actual gold market decides to store it's funds in Bitcoin.Then you'll have a price of around $4000+/coin.