Bitcoin Forum

New thread.

tss won last thread.

that thread is still open as I need to ship him a compac stick and suchmoon needs his BTC addy to pay him off.

We are going to try the shorter range as discussed.

Please don't post yet. I will need time to cut and paste.

New ranges below

pick times are block 600 to block 1200

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1229199.msg12854275#msg12854275


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1229199.msg12854582#msg12854582


Leaves  us with:

That is  a simple fix should work. We combine  your idea say


 .10%  ranges  and shift from blocks  300-1000   to   600-1200

should slow the rush a bit and leave room for picks

 

this correction to the negatives was made by suchmoon. 

so  -0   gives you 0 to  -0.9
and +0 gives you 0 to +0.9

this keeps negs and pos in a mirror image format. 




and down

-2.5  =
-2.4  =
-2.3  =
-2.2  =
-2.1  =
-2.0  =        -2.00 to -2.09
-1.9  =        -1.90 to -1.99
-1.8  =        -1.80 to -1.89
-1.7  =        -1.70 to -1.79
-1.6  =        -1.60 to -1.69
-1.5  =        -1.50 to -1.59
-1.4  =        -1.40 to -1.49
-1.3  =        -1.30 to -1.39
-1.2  =        -1.20 to -1.29
-1.1  =        -1.10 to -1.19>>>>>>>>>> philipma1957
-1.0  =        -1.00 to -109
-0.9  =        -0.90 to -0.99
-0.8  =        -0.80 to -0.89
-0.7  =        -0.70 to -0.79
-0.6  =        -0.60 to -0.69
-0.5   =      -0.50 to -0.59
-0.4   =      -0.40 to -0.49
-0.3   =      -0.30 to -0.39
-0.2   =      -0.20 to -0.29
-0.1   =      -0.10 to -0.19
-0.0   =      -0.00 to  -0.09


 0.0   =      +0.00 to +0.09
+0.1  =     +0.10 to +0.19
+0.2  =     +0.20 to +0.29
+0.3  =     +0.30 to +0.39
+0.4  =     +0.40 to +0.49
+0.5  =      +0.50 to +0.59
+0.6  =
+0.7  =  
+0.8  =
+0.9  =
+1.0  =
+1.1  
+1.2  
+1.3  
+1.4  
+1.5  
+1.6  
+1.7  
+1.8  
+1.9  
+2.0  
+2.1  
+2.2  
+2.3  
+2.4
+2.5
+2.6
+2.7
+2.8
+2.9
+3.0
+3.1
+3.2
+3.3
+3.4
+3.5
+3.6
+3.7
+3.8
+3.9
+4.0
+4.1
+4.2
+4.3
+4.4
+4.5
+4.6
+4.7
+4.8
+4.9
+5.0
+5.1
+5.2
+5.3
+5.4
+5.5
+5.6
+5.7
+5.8
+5.9
+6.0
+6.1
+6.2
+6.3
+6.4
+6.5
+6.6
+6.7
+6.8
+6.9
+7.0


and up as high as you want to pick

I like the delay to 600th block  and I like the .1 range

I don't care how high or how low you pick

but below -10%
and above +10%

are not likely to hit.

waiting until  late should still leave you picks  since there are simply more choices that  may hit.

I also think this will cause rollovers  since there are more slots.

I am going to check newbies very carefully  if we get flooded with them  we may restrict them.

So when you pick   just do

+1.0 notlist3d

or

-2.0 tss


  Obviously use your fourm name not the ones above.

I will do the rest.

Nice upgrades Phil !

it changes things up a bit  makes better chance for rollovers.

Pushes the art of waiting a bit more.

If it sucks we can always go back.

I don't know how this update effect the game but let's wait and see. It looks late predictions have better chances in the first glance.

It'll be a fun and tighter competition.

Going from a .25 ranges to a 0.1 :D

Lets see how many people join in this time.

okay

first day in

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

11-11-2015     169 blocks  this is a plus 25   now the first 77 blocks were on the last adjustment  So  on a part day I guess +14

we did 117 should be 103  I get +13.59%    it is very early do not panic

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (3.92%)


Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   68,427,134,941 (+3.92%)
Adjust time:   After 1899 Blocks, About 13.2 days
Hashrate(?):   480,507,892 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 30.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   22:25 (4.1 minutes ago)

we start on block 600 so we have 3+ days to go.  waiting a bit after
will help your picking.

+4.20 - Finksy    ;D

way too soon bro.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   68,360,405,231 (+3.82%)

Adjust time:   After 1847 Blocks, About 12.8 days ----------------- When this reads 1416 we are 600 blocks in.

Hashrate(?):   495,574,861 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 30.0 minutes
6 blocks: 60.0 minutes
Updated:   7:0 (4.2 minutes ago)

I figure  2 ¾ days from now.

okay day two

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

11-11-2015   169 blocks  this is a plus 25   now the first 77 blocks were on the last adjustment  So  on a part day I guess +14

11-12-2015  158 blocks this is plus 14    total is +28


we did 268  should be 240  I get +11.67%    it is very early do not panic

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   68,428,800,986 (+3.92%)
Adjust time:   After 1748 Blocks, About 12.0 days
Hashrate(?):   498,510,886 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.7 minutes
6 blocks: 59.4 minutes
Updated:   22:25 (6.0 minutes ago)

11.67 + 3.92 = 15.59 average the two estimates = 7.795%  this would be a decent guess

+3.20% to +3.29% DanielRo

Daniel, You should keep up :D

Thanks :). Sorry for to early pick up.
Did not read about the 600 blocks delay.
I'll pick up again after 1416 blocks.

tss has been paid.

I like the new rules. For the negative ranges I was thinking - what if we allow the zero to be picked by two participants.

i.e

-0.0

and

+0.0

would be valid picks, -0.00 to -0.09 and +0.00 to +0.09 respectively. If diff hits 0.00 both get paid. I'm quite confident in the odds against that :)

That would remove the slight confusion on the negative side and make both sides identical.

Diff change +2.24% = whoever picked +2.2 wins
Diff change +5.07% = whoever picked +5.0 wins
Diff change -1.51% = whoever picked -1.5 wins
etc

yup.. got my winnings.  thanks guys.  i am a fan of the new format.  seems to allow more participants and a choice of picks. the last few contests filled in so fast you end up taking whatever is available just to be part of the game.

Good point I will alter the negatives to conform to the positives.


and done in first post.

Really high peak today and doesn't want to get down so far.

Hashrate(?):   526,735,039 GH/s

okay day two  three

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

11-11-2015   169 blocks  this is a plus 25   now the first 77 blocks were on the last adjustment  So  on a part day I guess +14

11-12-2015  158 blocks this is plus 14    total is +28
 
11-13-2015   161 blocks  this is plus 17 total is +45

we did 434  should be 389  so   I get +11.568%    it is very early do not panic

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (+4.62%)  < note this is future guess   


Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   68,893,422,058 (+4.62%)
Adjust time:   After 1582 Blocks, About 10.7 days
Hashrate(?):   525,067,336 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 29.2 minutes
6 blocks: 58.4 minutes
Updated:   


current number is really high.  I glad we decided to delay until block 600  and to tighten the ranges up to .10 percent  it will take a little more skill and waiting a bit looks like the better move.

with the way we are making blocks we could be at 600 in 25 or 26 hours  maybe less.

Last 65 blocks for guesses. It would be too hard to guess now with 0.10 range. I think this time winning pick contains more luck than skills.

Yeah even if you pick at block 800  vs 600 you are not giving yourself a lot of chance.

My current numbers show us close to ten percent.

Waiting to pick should be a good move.

12 blocks to go for picks

12 blocks to go for picks

okay day] 4

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

11-11-2015   169 blocks  this is a plus 25   now the first 77 blocks were on the last adjustment  So  on a part day I guess +14

11-12-2015  158 blocks this is plus 14    total is +28
 
11-13-2015   161 blocks  this is plus 17 total is +45

11-14-2015   146 + 2                               +47

we did 588  should be 541  so   I get +8.68%    it is very early do not panic

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (  +5.39% )


Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   69,396,517,237 (+5.39%)
Adjust time:   After 1428 Blocks, About 9.5 days
Hashrate(?):   504,237,311 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.8 minutes
6 blocks: 57.6 minutes
Updated:   


so 8.68 vs 5.39   getting closer  ..

picks in 2 hours.  as it is late on the east coast I am going to sleep.

I.m taking :

+4.2 HerbPean

Thanks :P

+5.0 adaseb

+5.4 tss

+3.2 Tupsu

+4.5 ingiltere

Maybe I guess too quick but I don't want to forget this competition. :)

+4 mavericklm

The cats like the new rules! This time they came up with:

+3.3 edonkey

 
picks have started






-2.5  =
-2.4  =
-2.3  =
-2.2  =
-2.1  =
-2.0  =        
-1.9  =      
-1.8  =        
-1.7  =        
-1.6  =        
-1.5  =        
-1.4  =        
-1.3  =      
-1.2  =      
-1.1  =         philipma1957
-1.0  =        
-0.9  =      
-0.8  =        
-0.7  =        
-0.6  =      
-0.5   =    
-0.4   =    
-0.3   =    
-0.2   =      
-0.1   =      
-0.0   =    


 0.0   =      
+0.1  =    
+0.2  =    
+0.3  =    
+0.4  =    
+0.5  =    
+0.6  =
+0.7  =  
+0.8  =
+0.9  =
+1.0  =
+1.1  
+1.2  
+1.3  
+1.4  
+1.5  
+1.6  
+1.7  
+1.8  
+1.9  
+2.0  
+2.1  
+2.2  
+2.3  
+2.4
+2.5
+2.6
+2.7
+2.8
+2.9
+3.0
+3.1
+3.2 = Tupsu
+3.3 = edonkey
+3.4
+3.5
+3.6
+3.7
+3.8
+3.9
+4.0 = mavericklm
+4.1
+4.2 = HerbPean
+4.3
+4.4
+4.5 = ingiltere
+4.6
+4.7
+4.8
+4.9
+5.0 = adaseb
+5.1
+5.2
+5.3
+5.4 = tss
+5.5
+5.6
+5.7
+5.8
+5.9
+6.0
+6.1
+6.2
+6.3
+6.4
+6.5
+6.6
+6.7
+6.8
+6.9
+7.0


and up as high as you want to pick

I pick +5.6 thx

+6.1 please.

+4.3 dukeneptun

Good luck everyone, I hope Bitcoin price rise more than mining difficulty. :D

May I choose +7.0 (+7)?

Do you wait for more info or do you guess now? Hmm

+3.1 RichBC


Thanks

 
picks have started






-2.5  =
-2.4  =
-2.3  =
-2.2  =
-2.1  =
-2.0  =        
-1.9  =      
-1.8  =        
-1.7  =        
-1.6  =        
-1.5  =        
-1.4  =        
-1.3  =      
-1.2  =      
-1.1  =         philipma1957
-1.0  =        
-0.9  =      
-0.8  =        
-0.7  =        
-0.6  =      
-0.5   =    
-0.4   =    
-0.3   =    
-0.2   =      
-0.1   =      
-0.0   =    


 0.0   =      
+0.1  =    
+0.2  =    
+0.3  =    
+0.4  =    
+0.5  =    
+0.6  =
+0.7  =  
+0.8  =
+0.9  =
+1.0  =
+1.1  
+1.2  
+1.3  
+1.4  
+1.5  
+1.6  
+1.7  
+1.8  
+1.9  
+2.0  
+2.1  
+2.2  
+2.3  
+2.4
+2.5
+2.6
+2.7
+2.8
+2.9
+3.0
+3.1 = RichBC
+3.2 = Tupsu
+3.3 = edonkey
+3.4
+3.5
+3.6
+3.7
+3.8
+3.9
+4.0 = mavericklm
+4.1
+4.2 = HerbPean
+4.3 = dukeneptun
+4.4
+4.5 = ingiltere
+4.6
+4.7
+4.8
+4.9
+5.0 = adaseb
+5.1
+5.2
+5.3
+5.4 = tss
+5.5
+5.6 = vortexz
+5.7
+5.8
+5.9
+6.0
+6.1 = cakir
+6.2
+6.3
+6.4
+6.5
+6.6
+6.7
+6.8
+6.9
+7.0 = pandacoin
+7.1
+7.2
+7.3
+7.4
+7.5
+7.6
+7.7
+7.8
+7.9
+8.0

and up as high as you want to pick

or down as low as you want to pick

+4.1 Biodom

thanks...miss the old format somehow..it feels more random.

 
picks have started






-2.5  =
-2.4  =
-2.3  =
-2.2  =
-2.1  =
-2.0  =        
-1.9  =      
-1.8  =        
-1.7  =        
-1.6  =        
-1.5  =        
-1.4  =        
-1.3  =      
-1.2  =      
-1.1  =         philipma1957
-1.0  =        
-0.9  =      
-0.8  =        
-0.7  =        
-0.6  =      
-0.5   =    
-0.4   =    
-0.3   =    
-0.2   =      
-0.1   =      
-0.0   =    


 0.0   =      
+0.1  =    
+0.2  =    
+0.3  =    
+0.4  =    
+0.5  =    
+0.6  =
+0.7  =  
+0.8  =
+0.9  =
+1.0  =
+1.1  
+1.2  
+1.3  
+1.4  
+1.5  
+1.6  
+1.7  
+1.8  
+1.9  
+2.0  
+2.1  
+2.2  
+2.3  
+2.4
+2.5
+2.6
+2.7
+2.8
+2.9
+3.0
+3.1 = RichBC
+3.2 = Tupsu
+3.3 = edonkey
+3.4
+3.5
+3.6
+3.7
+3.8
+3.9
+4.0 = mavericklm
+4.1 = Biodom
+4.2 = HerbPean
+4.3 = dukeneptun
+4.4
+4.5 = ingiltere
+4.6
+4.7
+4.8
+4.9
+5.0 = adaseb
+5.1
+5.2
+5.3
+5.4 = tss
+5.5
+5.6 = vortexz
+5.7
+5.8
+5.9
+6.0
+6.1 = cakir
+6.2
+6.3
+6.4
+6.5
+6.6
+6.7
+6.8
+6.9
+7.0 = pandacoin
+7.1
+7.2
+7.3
+7.4
+7.5
+7.6
+7.7
+7.8
+7.9
+8.0
+8.1
+8.2
+8.3
+8.4
+8.5
+8.6
+8.7
+8.8
+8.9
+9.0


and up as high as you want to pick

or down as low as you want to pick


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty      (+7.05%)  


Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   70,493,459,746 (+7.05%)
Adjust time:   After 1351 Blocks, About 8.8 days
Hashrate(?):   510,070,909 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.4 minutes
3 blocks: 28.1 minutes
6 blocks: 56.2 minutes
Updated:   11:45 (4.9 minutes ago)


Actually   rushing to pick   becomes higher risk  of being off by a lot   we have made  665 blocks  and 13 picks are in most were done very quickly and   bitcoinwisdom did not reflect the higher numbers until an hour or 2 ago..  +7.05 %  is the new guess by them.


we end picks at 1200 made  which is when there are 816 left.  waiting a bit is a  better strategy.

+4.8 DanDan

This game is too hard now. ::)

picks have started






-2.5  =
-2.4  =
-2.3  =
-2.2  =
-2.1  =
-2.0  =        
-1.9  =      
-1.8  =        
-1.7  =        
-1.6  =        
-1.5  =        
-1.4  =        
-1.3  =      
-1.2  =      
-1.1  =         philipma1957
-1.0  =        
-0.9  =      
-0.8  =        
-0.7  =        
-0.6  =      
-0.5   =    
-0.4   =    
-0.3   =    
-0.2   =      
-0.1   =      
-0.0   =    


 0.0   =      
+0.1  =    
+0.2  =    
+0.3  =    
+0.4  =    
+0.5  =    
+0.6  =
+0.7  =  
+0.8  =
+0.9  =
+1.0  =
+1.1  
+1.2  
+1.3  
+1.4  
+1.5  
+1.6  
+1.7  
+1.8  
+1.9  
+2.0  
+2.1  
+2.2  
+2.3  
+2.4
+2.5
+2.6
+2.7
+2.8
+2.9
+3.0
+3.1 = RichBC
+3.2 = Tupsu
+3.3 = edonkey
+3.4
+3.5
+3.6
+3.7
+3.8
+3.9
+4.0 = mavericklm
+4.1 = Biodom
+4.2 = HerbPean
+4.3 = dukeneptun
+4.4
+4.5 = ingiltere
+4.6
+4.7
+4.8 = DanDan
+4.9
+5.0 = adaseb
+5.1
+5.2
+5.3
+5.4 = tss
+5.5
+5.6 = vortexz
+5.7
+5.8
+5.9
+6.0
+6.1 = cakir
+6.2
+6.3
+6.4
+6.5
+6.6
+6.7
+6.8
+6.9
+7.0 = pandacoin
+7.1
+7.2
+7.3
+7.4
+7.5
+7.6
+7.7
+7.8
+7.9
+8.0
+8.1
+8.2
+8.3
+8.4
+8.5
+8.6
+8.7
+8.8
+8.9
+9.0


and up as high as you want to pick

or down as low as you want to pick






@ DanDan    we may get a lot of rollovers

Wow Phil. Looks lonely down there.

+8.1 zebedee

Thanks

Ouch

This is not looking good. Never seen a spike like this before.


http://i68.tinypic.com/2uyiv40.png

picks have started



you can pick lower then me if you dare :D
      
-1.2  =      
-1.1  =         philipma1957
-1.0  =        
-0.9  =      
-0.8  =        
-0.7  =        
-0.6  =      
-0.5   =    
-0.4   =    
-0.3   =    
-0.2   =      
-0.1   =      
-0.0   =    


 0.0   =      
+0.1  =    
+0.2  =    
+0.3  =    
+0.4  =    
+0.5  =    
+0.6  =
+0.7  =  
+0.8  =
+0.9  =
+1.0  =
+1.1  
+1.2  
+1.3  
+1.4  
+1.5  
+1.6  
+1.7  
+1.8  
+1.9  
+2.0  
+2.1  
+2.2  
+2.3  
+2.4
+2.5
+2.6
+2.7
+2.8
+2.9
+3.0
+3.1 = RichBC
+3.2 = Tupsu
+3.3 = edonkey
+3.4
+3.5
+3.6
+3.7
+3.8
+3.9
+4.0 = mavericklm
+4.1 = Biodom
+4.2 = HerbPean
+4.3 = dukeneptun
+4.4
+4.5 = ingiltere
+4.6
+4.7
+4.8 = DanDan
+4.9
+5.0 = adaseb
+5.1
+5.2
+5.3
+5.4 = tss
+5.5
+5.6 = vortexz
+5.7
+5.8
+5.9
+6.0
+6.1 = cakir
+6.2
+6.3
+6.4
+6.5
+6.6
+6.7
+6.8
+6.9
+7.0 = pandacoin
+7.1
+7.2
+7.3
+7.4
+7.5
+7.6
+7.7
+7.8
+7.9
+8.0
+8.1 = zebedee
+8.2
+8.3
+8.4
+8.5
+8.6
+8.7
+8.8
+8.9
+9.0


and  pick up  and over as high as you want to pick

or down as low as you want to pick






@ edonkey yeah  it is lonely but I am committed to that number

@ adaseb  for today we are at :


https://blockchain.info/blocks

383747 (Main Chain)   2015-11-15 22:39:55     AntPool   


383594 (Main Chain)   2015-11-15 00:07:13     21 Inc.

this is 154 blocks in  the time it should be 136

so tack on  10 or 12 more and it is  a 166 day  not that bad.

okay day] 4

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

11-11-2015   169 blocks  this is a plus 25   now the first 77 blocks were on the last adjustment  So  on a part day I guess +14

11-12-2015  158 blocks this is plus 14    total is +28
 
11-13-2015   161 blocks  this is plus 17 total is +45

11-14-2015   146 + 2                               +47

11-15-2015   156 is +12                           +59    

  
we have made 762 blocks we should be 703  this is (+8.39%)  vs  bticointalk's 7.87



          
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   71,028,127,159 (+7.87%)
Adjust time:   After 1264 Blocks, About 8.2 days
Hashrate(?):   509,779,034 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.3 minutes
3 blocks: 27.9 minutes
6 blocks: 55.7 minutes
Updated:   

i want + 8.2

+2 % is just my two cents

This is CRAZY NUTS!. Time to sell all the miners.

http://i65.tinypic.com/153mzxl.png

Estimated Next Difficulty:    71,374,357,287 (+8.39%)
Adjust time:    After 1219 Blocks, About 7.8 days
Hashrate(?):    520,948,470 GH/s

we are fucked!  ;D

I preferred low price and low diff  :(

+6.7 = DanielRo

Conservative: 8.5% 10.6% Continous: 16.7 %

by http://nextdifficulty.com/

 :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o

dooooomed! we are!

is it bitfurry? 20% in the last 24h

+8.8 Lituation

I guess we'll see a lot bigger difficulty rise this time. Interesting things are happening.

+8.9 = VirosaGITS

Sound like we're up for a crazy difficulty increase. I wonder if the price will keep up.

Price wont keep up to that difficulty jump, no connection there.

+9.70 = d57heinz   ;D   edited sorry stuck on old system    long morning:/



currently Net Hashrate

619,439.12 TH/s

was just a bit ago.

Net Hashrate
644,617.18 TH/s

Best Regards
d57heinz

edit  my theory on the crazy swings isnt variance.. its large farms getting setup for the ramp up coming at halving.. they will drain the system as new money flows in with all the new hw just waiting to come online.. Just a theory anyway..

I'm keekping an eye on the diff raise since almost 2 years. The current Hastrate is about 520 Peta. I have no idea where you taking your number by it's clearly offset or base on a very short period of time.

If you want a good estimate of the hashrate use this : https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

EDIT: the last 6 block has been found in just under 1 hour ... no where a 30% diff adjustment

EDIT 2: I'm not the first one telling you that you're wrong with your numbers and you keep posting them.

for today the 16th of nov  https://blockchain.info/blocks


383880 (Main Chain)   2015-11-16 16:43:36

383754 (Main Chain)   2015-11-16 00:01:13


127 blocks in   16 hours and 40 minutes   normal would be 100 blocks in that time .

  so just for today so far we are 27 percent   over norm.   huge huge huge.   this could be the sp50 and something else.

+7.7 = ezeminer

I can't believe how high this difficulty is looking to be. It hasn't jumped this high in about a year. Well maybe it'll come down a little bit to save the miners.

+6.6 = wlefever please

picks have started



you can pick lower then me if you dare :D
      
-1.2  =      
-1.1  =         philipma1957
-1.0  =        
-0.9  =      
-0.8  =        
-0.7  =        
-0.6  =      
-0.5   =    
-0.4   =    
-0.3   =    
-0.2   =      
-0.1   =      
-0.0   =    


 0.0   =      
+0.1  =    
+0.2  =    
+0.3  =    
+0.4  =    
+0.5  =    
+0.6  =
+0.7  =  
+0.8  =
+0.9  =
+1.0  =
+1.1  
+1.2  
+1.3  
+1.4  
+1.5  
+1.6  
+1.7  
+1.8  
+1.9  
+2.0 = BTCish  
+2.1  
+2.2  
+2.3  
+2.4
+2.5
+2.6
+2.7
+2.8
+2.9
+3.0
+3.1 = RichBC
+3.2 = Tupsu
+3.3 = edonkey
+3.4
+3.5
+3.6
+3.7
+3.8
+3.9
+4.0 = mavericklm
+4.1 = Biodom
+4.2 = HerbPean
+4.3 = dukeneptun
+4.4
+4.5 = ingiltere
+4.6
+4.7
+4.8 = DanDan
+4.9
+5.0 = adaseb
+5.1
+5.2
+5.3
+5.4 = tss
+5.5
+5.6 = vortexz
+5.7
+5.8
+5.9
+6.0
+6.1 = cakir
+6.2
+6.3
+6.4
+6.5
+6.6 = wlefever
+6.7 = DanielRo
+6.8
+6.9
+7.0 = pandacoin
+7.1
+7.2
+7.3
+7.4
+7.5
+7.6
+7.7 = ezeminer
+7.8
+7.9 = togesix
+8.0
+8.1 = zebedee
+8.2 = Amph
+8.3
+8.4
+8.5
+8.6
+8.7
+8.8 = Lituation
+8.9= VirosaGITS
+9.0
+9.1
+9.2
+9.3
+9.4
+9.5
+9.6
+9.7= d57heinz
+9.8
+9.9
+10.0


and  pick up  and over as high as you want to pick

or down as low as you want to pick






blockchaininfo  still shows  a wicked bad  one jump

https://blockchain.info/blocks


383895 (Main Chain)   2015-11-16 18:59:41

383754 (Main Chain)   2015-11-16 00:01:13

140 blocks in  19 hours
it  should be   
114 blocks in  19 hours

1 day overage of 22.8%


@ tss   I mailed the usb stick out today  small flat rate box.

it is the compac  gold testing edition   it can run on cgminer 4.9.2

+5.9 = Mikestang

We are seeing a lot of machines coming on line right now in a short time, maybe a big burn-in run.  I am betting that diff will spike high this adjustment then drop back a little, similar to last period but I do not expect it to drop as far from its peak.

I'm not here to get into pissing match.  What I feel overall is that everyone here feels they know it all and dismiss anyone else idea. Well one thing I know damn good and well is once you think you know what's going on in btc you get thrown a curve ball.  I have a mpos pool setup for solo and it gives me real time hashrate   Also it's easy as Bitcoin-cli getnetworkhashps.   


Looks to me wisdom right on board with my thinking:)

Estimated Next Difficulty:   72,337,417,158 (+9.85%)
Adjust time:   After 1127 Blocks, About 7.1 days
Hashrate(?):   523,933,733 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.1 minutes
3 blocks: 27.1 minutes
6 blocks: 54.3 minutes
Updated:   18:25 (2.5 minutes ago)

Best regards
D57heinz

okay day 6

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

11-11-2015   169 blocks  this is a plus 25   now the first 77 blocks were on the last adjustment  So  on a part day I guess +14

11-12-2015  158 blocks this is plus 14    total is +28
 
11-13-2015   161 blocks  this is plus 17 total is +45

11-14-2015   146 + 2                               +47

11-15-2015   156 is +12                           +59    

 11-16-2015  172 is +28                           +87



we are 891 made should be  804  i get (10.08%)
which is a little worse then bitcoinwisdom

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   72,446,086,826 (+10.02%)
Adjust time:   After 1125 Blocks, About 7.1 days
Hashrate(?):   523,126,131 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.0 minutes
3 blocks: 27.1 minutes
6 blocks: 54.2 minutes
Updated:   19:35 (5.8 minutes ago)

So waiting to pick should make more sense and oh these are big numbers.

+7.4 = Notlist3d

Thanks!

picks have started



you can pick lower then me if you dare :D
      
-1.2  =      
-1.1  =         philipma1957
-1.0  =        
-0.9  =      
-0.8  =        
-0.7  =        
-0.6  =      
-0.5   =    
-0.4   =    
-0.3   =    
-0.2   =      
-0.1   =      
-0.0   =    


 0.0   =      
+0.1  =    
+0.2  =    
+0.3  =    
+0.4  =    
+0.5  =    
+0.6  =
+0.7  =  
+0.8  =
+0.9  =
+1.0  =
+1.1  
+1.2  
+1.3  
+1.4  
+1.5  
+1.6  
+1.7  
+1.8  
+1.9  
+2.0 = BTCish  
+2.1  
+2.2  
+2.3  
+2.4
+2.5
+2.6
+2.7
+2.8
+2.9
+3.0
+3.1 = RichBC
+3.2 = Tupsu
+3.3 = edonkey
+3.4
+3.5
+3.6
+3.7
+3.8
+3.9
+4.0 = mavericklm
+4.1 = Biodom
+4.2 = HerbPean
+4.3 = dukeneptun
+4.4
+4.5 = ingiltere
+4.6
+4.7
+4.8 = DanDan
+4.9
+5.0 = adaseb
+5.1
+5.2
+5.3
+5.4 = tss
+5.5
+5.6 = vortexz
+5.7
+5.8
+5.9
+6.0
+6.1 = cakir
+6.2
+6.3
+6.4
+6.5
+6.6 = wlefever
+6.7 = DanielRo
+6.8
+6.9
+7.0 = pandacoin
+7.1
+7.2
+7.3
+7.4 = notlist3d
+7.5
+7.6
+7.7 = ezeminer
+7.8
+7.9 = togesix
+8.0
+8.1 = zebedee
+8.2 = Amph
+8.3
+8.4
+8.5
+8.6
+8.7
+8.8 = Lituation
+8.9= VirosaGITS
+9.0
+9.1
+9.2
+9.3
+9.4
+9.5
+9.6
+9.7= d57heinz
+9.8
+9.9
+10.0

and  pick up  and over as high as you want to pick
or down as low as you want to pick

blockchaininfo  still shows  a wicked bad  one jump

7.51 to 7.75 please

Estimated Next Difficulty:    72,630,699,894 (+10.30%)
Adjust time:    After 1117 Blocks, About 7.0 days
Hashrate(?):    521,758,906 GH/s

fucking btc price!

nothing jumps in to my eyes in the hashrate on each pool

rules have changed

i can give you 7.5   which covers 7.50 to 7.59

picks have started
you can pick lower then me if you dare :D
      
-1.2  =      
-1.1  =         philipma1957


-0.1   =      
-0.0   =    
 0.0   =      
+0.1  =

+0.9  =
+1.0  =
+1.1  

+1.9  
+2.0 = BTCish  
+2.1  

+2.9
+3.0
+3.1 = RichBC
+3.2 = Tupsu
+3.3 = edonkey
+3.4
 

+3.9
+4.0 = mavericklm
+4.1 = Biodom
+4.2 = HerbPean
+4.3 = dukeneptun
+4.4
+4.5 = ingiltere
+4.6
+4.7
+4.8 = DanDan
+4.9
+5.0 = adaseb
+5.1
+5.2
+5.3
+5.4 = tss
+5.5
+5.6 = vortexz
+5.7
+5.8
+5.9 = Mikestang
+6.0
+6.1 = cakir
+6.2
+6.3
+6.4
+6.5
+6.6 = wlefever
+6.7 = DanielRo
+6.8
+6.9
+7.0 = pandacoin
+7.1
+7.2
+7.3
+7.4 = notlist3d
+7.5 = wpt1wpt1
+7.6
+7.7 = ezeminer
+7.8
+7.9 = togesix
+8.0
+8.1 = zebedee
+8.2 = Amph
+8.3
+8.4
+8.5
+8.6
+8.7
+8.8 = Lituation
+8.9= VirosaGITS
+9.0
+9.1
+9.2
+9.3
+9.4
+9.5
+9.6
+9.7= d57heinz
+9.8
+9.9
+10.0

and  pick up  and over as high as you want to pick
or down as low as you want to pick

blockchaininfo  still shows  a wicked bad  one jump

I tightened up the list  you can still pick any one not picked . by ranges of .1

This difficulty is going insanely high. I saw it jump from a predicted 9% to 11% today..

One can hope we don't jump too much, but it might because
http://www.91x.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/winteriscoming.jpg

Whenever I check Blockchain, it takes 20-30 minutes to find 6 blocks. If this continues then we won't see a 10% jump, we will see a 100% jump.

Largest diff jump was

Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s


There is a good chance this month we will beat that record.

okay day 6

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

11-11-2015   169 blocks  this is a plus 25   now the first 77 blocks were on the last adjustment  So  on a part day I guess +14

11-12-2015  158 blocks this is plus 14    total is +28
 
11-13-2015   161 blocks  this is plus 17 total is +45

11-14-2015   146 + 2                               +47

11-15-2015   156 is +12                           +59    

 11-16-2015  175 is +31                          +90



we are 891 made should be  801  i get (11.23%)
which is a little worse then bitcoinwisdom

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   72,446,086,826 (+10.02%)
Adjust time:   After 1125 Blocks, About 7.1 days
Hashrate(?):   523,126,131 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.0 minutes
3 blocks: 27.1 minutes
6 blocks: 54.2 minutes
Updated:   19:35 (5.8 minutes ago)

brutal numbers really high.

Calculation based on what ? Last 6 block ? 20 ? 100 ?

My point is, you are throwing statement like we just hit 650 Peta. There is no way someone just plugged 250 Peta out of no where. It's like Bitcoinwisdom ... Hashrate(?):   523,032,073 GH/s is the average of the last 504 block (25% of the difficulty)

Yes someone just throw a bunch of hashrate, but no where 650 peta.

Some what glad I didn't pull the trigger on those S7 purchases.


http://i64.tinypic.com/jjlcg8.png

Looks like it just keeps going up:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:    72,639,342,246 (+10.31%)
Adjust time:    After 1121 Blocks, About 7.0 days
Hashrate(?):    520,959,894 GH/s

I'm thinking burn in tests on Avalon and Bitmain for sure.   If any others are testing I'm still not sure.   I don't think it's the SP50 yet.  When we do get to that point that is a lot of hash in one unit. 

Could get crazy with just a few main makers.

I think we had 30-40% jumps at the end of 2013.

This current one has been running between 8-12% so far. Half hour or even a day isn't a large enough sample for estimates.

As for who's doing this - check pool stats. I don't have a good source for other pools on hand right now but I know that AntPool has been KILLING it:

https://www.antpool.com/poolStats.htm

http://i.snag.gy/MMcnI.jpg

I think this is essentially difficulty trying to catch up with BTC price. We've a significant run up in price, and difficulty is "chasing after price".

I thought the current network size was so large that it was going to virtually impossible to get a 10% increase in difficulty, just because the numbers are so large. Looks like maybe I was wrong.

I am going to wait a bit longer to guess. This going to feel like a brutal increase.

+8.6 = flikflak

thanks!

Pick +11.2% to 11.3 %

That difficulty is something else I'll match it's present state for my call
Bitcoin Difficulty:    65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:    73,229,045,484 (+11.21%)
Adjust time:    After 1050 Blocks, About 6.5 days

Good thing i ve sold my s7 at a small profit already!!!

If we get even just a few 10's or close Batch 7 buyers will be off I'm guessing on ROI math will be ineresting to see who hits ROI on batch 7.  With it being possibly a month before shipping could be interesting.

I really hoping it is just a spike and will slow down after a few days.

+9.2 Zz

Tough call, it would be higher though.

+12.2%

I'll go with +9.6.  I'm keeping my hopes up it will be under 10% :)

picks have started
you can pick lower then me if you dare :D
      
-1.2  =      
-1.1  =         philipma1957


-0.1   =      
-0.0   =    
 0.0   =      
+0.1  =

+0.9  =
+1.0  =
+1.1  

+1.9  
+2.0 = BTCish  
+2.1  

+2.9
+3.0
+3.1 = RichBC
+3.2 = Tupsu
+3.3 = edonkey
+3.4
 

+3.9
+4.0 = mavericklm
+4.1 = Biodom
+4.2 = HerbPean
+4.3 = dukeneptun
+4.4
+4.5 = ingiltere
+4.6
+4.7
+4.8 = DanDan
+4.9
+5.0 = adaseb
+5.1
+5.2
+5.3
+5.4 = tss
+5.5
+5.6 = vortexz
+5.7
+5.8
+5.9 = Mikestang
+6.0
+6.1 = cakir
+6.2
+6.3
+6.4
+6.5
+6.6 = wlefever
+6.7 = DanielRo
+6.8
+6.9
+7.0 = pandacoin
+7.1
+7.2
+7.3
+7.4 = notlist3d
+7.5 = wpt1wpt1
+7.6
+7.7 = ezeminer
+7.8
+7.9 = togesix
+8.0
+8.1 = zebedee
+8.2 = Amph
+8.3
+8.4
+8.5
+8.6 = flikflak
+8.7
+8.8 = Lituation
+8.9= VirosaGITS
+9.0
+9.1
+9.2 =Zz
+9.3
+9.4
+9.5
+9.6 = jonnybravo0311
+9.7 = d57heinz
+9.8
+9.9
+10.0


+11.2 = SwordsofFreedom

+12.2 = 64dimensions

and  pick up  and over as high as you want to pick
or down as low as you want to pick

blockchaininfo  still shows  a wicked bad  one jump

I tightened up the list  you can still pick any one not picked . by ranges of .1

yeah  if you go to sept 4th we were


230usd

diff was 56.9 bill

price now = 335 so diff should be 82.8 bill

now I left 3 factors out:

1)new gear s-5 was .51 watts  S-7 is .25 watts


2) cold weather for most miners

3)the ½ ing is coming.

 if you think these three blend into a factor of 1.0x  then we should go to 82.8 billion


I think the 3 factors are more like 1.2x   so 1.2 x 82.8 =  99.5 bill diff 

So a diff between 82.8 to 99.5 could be true by Jan 1  to do this we will do many 5% or more jumps.
  I still see the network going flat again  once we get to this level of 80-100.

I really hope that does not happen but it's not looking pretty.  I think we will break 10 this time... and I did not ever want to see that high again.  I want 5 and under.  At 10 will be interesting what a lot do as it's much harder to make a profit in current market with most miners. 

Bitwisdom midday:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:    72,617,129,681 (+10.28%)
Adjust time:    After 1013 Blocks, About 6.3 days
Hashrate(?):    530,831,166 GH/s

Still above that 10.  Not sure what I should consider a sucess even a 8-9 percent is not a pretty site.

Why would the halving affect the current difficulty?

I understand the efficiency and cold weather but not the halving factor.

+8.4 = Questor

=8.7%  Looking high ;D

I could see companies thinking about expanding mining operations racing to do it to get as much mining before having as possible.  Essentially they get more money now, a lot of people the big companies will be fine after having i think with electricity rates.

But I see it as a big business advantage of launching new gear now compared to after having.  Granted it might change some if this difficulty changes keep going like this.

if halving was 18 months off it would not affect your roi caculations. as you would not want gear that takes 18 months to go + on roi.

halving is jun-jul 2016  close to 7-8 months.  this will affect your roi calculations  if your purchase shows roi on Aug 1 2016  the halving could fuck you.

So many people will factor in ½ ing as a negative to profit on gear purchased today since we are closer then Aug 1 more like Jul 1 or sooner if diff is super high.

picks have started
you can pick lower then me if you dare :D
      
-1.2  =      
-1.1  =         philipma1957


-0.1   =      
-0.0   =    
 0.0   =      
+0.1  =

+0.9  =
+1.0  =
+1.1  

+1.9  
+2.0 = BTCish  
+2.1  

+2.9
+3.0
+3.1 = RichBC
+3.2 = Tupsu
+3.3 = edonkey
+3.4
 

+3.9
+4.0 = mavericklm
+4.1 = Biodom
+4.2 = HerbPean
+4.3 = dukeneptun
+4.4
+4.5 = ingiltere
+4.6
+4.7
+4.8 = DanDan
+4.9
+5.0 = adaseb
+5.1
+5.2
+5.3
+5.4 = tss
+5.5
+5.6 = vortexz
+5.7
+5.8
+5.9 = Mikestang
+6.0
+6.1 = cakir
+6.2
+6.3
+6.4
+6.5
+6.6 = wlefever
+6.7 = DanielRo
+6.8
+6.9
+7.0 = pandacoin
+7.1
+7.2
+7.3
+7.4 = notlist3d
+7.5 = wpt1wpt1
+7.6
+7.7 = ezeminer
+7.8
+7.9 = togesix
+8.0
+8.1 = zebedee
+8.2 = Amph
+8.3
+8.4 = Questor
+8.5
+8.6 = flikflak
+8.7 = indiemax
+8.8 = Lituation
+8.9= VirosaGITS
+9.0
+9.1
+9.2 =Zz
+9.3
+9.4
+9.5
+9.6 = jonnybravo0311
+9.7 = d57heinz
+9.8
+9.9
+10.0


+11.2 = SwordsofFreedom

+12.2 = 64dimensions

and  pick up  and over as high as you want to pick
or down as low as you want to pick

blockchaininfo  still shows  a wicked bad  one jump

I tightened up the list  you can still pick any one not picked . by ranges of .1
[/quote]

+9.1 = GreatNorthData

Please and thank you.

picks have started
you can pick lower then me if you dare :D
      
-1.2  =      
-1.1  =  philipma1957
      
-0.0   =
    
 0.0   =      
 
+2.0 = BTCish  

+3.1 = RichBC
+3.2 = Tupsu
+3.3 = edonkey

+4.0 = mavericklm
+4.1 = Biodom
+4.2 = HerbPean
+4.3 = dukeneptun
+4.4
+4.5 = ingiltere

+4.8 = DanDan
+4.9
+5.0 = adaseb

+5.4 = tss
+5.5
+5.6 = vortexz

+5.9 = Mikestang
+6.0
+6.1 = cakir

+6.6 = wlefever
+6.7 = DanielRo

+7.0 = pandacoin

+7.4 = notlist3d
+7.5 = wpt1wpt1
+7.6
+7.7 = ezeminer
+7.8
+7.9 = togesix
+8.0
+8.1 = zebedee
+8.2 = Amph
+8.3
+8.4 = Questor
+8.5
+8.6 = flikflak
+8.7 = indiemax
+8.8 = Lituation
+8.9= VirosaGITS
+9.0
+9.1= GreatNorthData  you are very welcome.
+9.2 =Zz

+9.6 = jonnybravo0311
+9.7 = d57heinz

+11.2 = SwordsofFreedom

+12.2 = 64dimensions

and  pick up  and over as high as you want to pick
or down as low as you want to pick
I tightened up the list  you can still pick any one not picked  by ranges of .1

we are 22 hours into this day that should be 132 blocks we made 140 so we are +6% for today  this has lowered bitcoinwisdom a bit

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (+8.96%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   71,745,418,788 (+8.96%)
Adjust time:   After 990 Blocks, About 6.3 days
Hashrate(?):   517,502,426 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.2 minutes
3 blocks: 27.4 minutes
6 blocks: 54.9 minutes

lastly picks are open for 174 more  blocks about 1 more day maybe 28 hours

+9.8 = Kexkey

Crazy diff increase!

So this is shaping up to be the monster diff adjustment period that we've been predicting for the last several jumps.  I wonder if this is just a burn in test for a massive amount of hardware?  In which case we'll see it spike, then drop back down a bit, then gradually increase as the machines make their ways to their new owners.  Or are new facilities being brought online that no one is reporting?

+8 Please and Thanks

It could be part of the difficulty adjustment that we were expecting, those miners from Bitmain took a while to ship and get sent out so some units may be coming online, that and the recent price increases set price stability in this price range so old miners are now being added to the network that were previously left offline. Combine the two factors and the present difficulty increase is not that bad considering the external factors involved.

Looks like you are getting close to current bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:    71,170,547,721 (+8.08%)
Adjust time:    After 969 Blocks, About 6.2 days
Hashrate(?):    517,570,073 GH/s

It's nice to see the 8... did not think I would say that.  But seeing it go down from 10 is good hopefully we can lose one or two more before change.

I'm hoping for a stubborn block or two before the difficulty adjusts similar to the round a few games back where it literally was won by the skin of its teeth.

So what happened exactly? Looks like the difficulty is back to normal and might be +5 or so.

Why turn on all that gear and shut it off?

picks have started
you can pick lower then me if you dare :D
      
-1.2  =      
-1.1  =  philipma1957
      
-0.0   =
    
 0.0   =      
 
+2.0 = BTCish  

+3.1 = RichBC
+3.2 = Tupsu
+3.3 = edonkey

+4.0 = mavericklm
+4.1 = Biodom
+4.2 = HerbPean
+4.3 = dukeneptun
+4.4
+4.5 = ingiltere

+4.8 = DanDan
+4.9
+5.0 = adaseb

+5.4 = tss
+5.5
+5.6 = vortexz

+5.9 = Mikestang
+6.0
+6.1 = cakir

+6.6 = wlefever
+6.7 = DanielRo

+7.0 = pandacoin

+7.4 = notlist3d
+7.5 = wpt1wpt1
+7.6
+7.7 = ezeminer
+7.8
+7.9 = togesix
+8.0 = EternalWingsofGod
+8.1 = zebedee
+8.2 = Amph
+8.3
+8.4 = Questor
+8.5
+8.6 = flikflak
+8.7 = indiemax
+8.8 = Lituation
+8.9= VirosaGITS
+9.0
+9.1= GreatNorthData  you are very welcome.
+9.2 =Zz

+9.6 = jonnybravo0311
+9.7 = d57heinz
+9.8 = Kexkey

+11.2 = SwordsofFreedom

+12.2 = 64dimensions

and  pick up  and over as high as you want to pick
or down as low as you want to pick
I tightened up the list  you can still pick any one not picked  by ranges of .1

okay day 7

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

11-11-2015   169 blocks  this is a plus 25   now the first 77 blocks were on the last adjustment  So  on a part day I guess +14

11-12-2015  158 blocks this is plus 14    total is +28
 
11-13-2015   161 blocks  this is plus 17 total is +45

11-14-2015   146 + 2                               +47

11-15-2015   156 is +12                           +59    

 11-16-2015  172 is +28                           +87

11-17-2015   146 is +2                             +89   and plus 2 looks nice


we are 1052  made should be  963  i get (+9.24% )
which is a little worse then bitcoinwisdom

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+7.94%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   71,079,644,480 (+7.94%)
Adjust time:   After 961 Blocks, About 6.2 days
Hashrate(?):   515,732,992 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.3 minutes
3 blocks: 27.8 minutes
6 blocks: 55.6 minutes
Updated:   22:40 (2.2 minutes ago)



well if we waited until now to pick   based on the numbers above  we will be 6.5 to 10.5% area.

we have 148 blocks to reach the 1200 cutoff for picks.

and we have  20 picks made in the 6.5 to 10.5 area    there are 20 picks not made in that zone.

In terms of this guessing game  waiting will be the better move next time.  We could have a rollover or maybe not.

In terms of why we got over 10% and drifted down to 8%  if the true number is 9%  it falls inside variance.

I have to wonder  what we are really up against.  Is there 200ph that can be the flick of a switch? no way.

But are there 25th machines by bitfury  maybe  and 400 of them are 10ph and that could use 3 megawatts.

 bitfury is supposed to have a 20megawatt farm.  if they are moving from .5 watt to .25 watts gear   that would be 40ph to 80ph  and that is a 40ph jump.

they did a big upgrade last fall maybe they are doing it again.

Estimated Next Difficulty:    71,085,350,166 (+7.95%)
Adjust time:    After 960 Blocks, About 6.2 days
Hashrate(?):    518,006,446 GH/s

better! damn you variance!!!

To not have such a large change in difficulty. Mine hardcore, grab bitcoins at low difficulty. Turn off miners so that the difficulty doesn't go too high.

Rinse and repeat

This is wrong. I firstly wanted to claim the final number of your bitcoins mined will be allways the same but on the contrary after putting it on paper, you would make LESS with this method.
Case A:
If the network hashrate was 1PH and you added another 1PH at the start of period you would mine 25200 BTC (half of all bitcoins to mine in that period). The period would end twice FASTER eg in 6 days. Than the difficulty would rise 100% up and in that period you'd mine the same amount=25200BTC  but in standard time 12 days. From this period on you'd make the same amount until somebody else added new miners.
So for say 30 days you would mine 25200(6days)+25200(12)+25200(12)=75600 BTC
Case B:
If you turned off miners in the half of first period you would logically mine only half eg 12600BTC in about 3 days and then you'd have to have wait till difficulty change for next 6 days as the hashrate would drop to normal. Then the difficulty would rise only 50% (Why? Because half of blocks was mined 100% faster and next half 0% faster) and in the 2nd period after turning your miners on again you would make 25200BTC (you have half of mining power) in about 9 days (because the difficulty is 50% higher). If you kept the miners on, in the 3rd period the difficulty would rise another 33% to the same level as in case A after 2 periods and you'd keep mining 25200BTC in 12 days period unless something else changed. So in 30 days you would mine 12600(3days+6idle)+25200(9)+25200(12)=63000 BTC.

So by delaying tactics you would lose 17% money. Correct me if I have error somewhere.

Reason for rapid decrease, excluding variance can be shipping huge number of hardware after test burn in or huge drop in BTC price.

-ve 1.2
Hehe i just picked this for you lol ... And this time my luck is on you :p i hope i win this time.

it will not reach even 5 % i think, my prediction already was 2%, but it might be a little more.

+6.3 = Last of the V8s

Estimated Next Difficulty:    71,085,201,494 (+7.95%)
Adjust time:    After 928 Blocks, About 6.0 days

we live in hope

picks have started
you can pick lower then me if you dare :D
      
-1.2  =  lolxxx                  looks like I have a visitor!!    
-1.1  =  philipma1957
      
-0.0   =
    
 0.0   =      
 
+2.0 = BTCish  

+3.1 = RichBC
+3.2 = Tupsu
+3.3 = edonkey

+4.0 = mavericklm
+4.1 = Biodom
+4.2 = HerbPean
+4.3 = dukeneptun
+4.4
+4.5 = ingiltere

+4.8 = DanDan
+4.9
+5.0 = adaseb

+5.4 = tss
+5.5
+5.6 = vortexz

+5.9 = Mikestang
+6.0
+6.1 = cakir
+6.3 = Last of the V8s
+6.6 = wlefever
+6.7 = DanielRo

+7.0 = pandacoin

+7.4 = notlist3d
+7.5 = wpt1wpt1
+7.6
+7.7 = ezeminer
+7.8
+7.9 = togesix
+8.0 = EternalWingsofGod
+8.1 = zebedee
+8.2 = Amph
+8.3
+8.4 = Questor
+8.5
+8.6 = flikflak
+8.7 = indiemax
+8.8 = Lituation
+8.9= VirosaGITS
+9.0
+9.1= GreatNorthData  you are very welcome.
+9.2 =Zz

+9.6 = jonnybravo0311
+9.7 = d57heinz
+9.8 = Kexkey

+11.2 = SwordsofFreedom

+12.2 = 64dimensions

and  pick up  and over as high as you want to pick
or down as low as you want to pick

I tightened up the list  you can still pick any one not picked  by ranges of .1

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (+8.28%)
Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   71,298,596,219 (+8.28%)
Adjust time:   After 906 Blocks, About 5.8 days
Hashrate(?):   525,519,626 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.2 minutes
3 blocks: 27.6 minutes
6 blocks: 55.2 minutes
Updated:   8:10 (7.4 minutes ago)


picks will close soon  about 10-14 hours

You can see it quite clearly here on this graph..  http://nextdifficulty.com/
Best Regards

Currently
Net Hashrate

426,357.08 TH/s

d57heinz

close enough.  it looks to me that  bitmaintech and avalon are both going to sell gear like mad.

So at times big flux will happen.

I also think all builders of asics know that NOV. DEC. JAN.  = cold = sales

I ALSO suspect bitmaintech can make and sell an s-7 for 500 usd and turn profit.   

Which means they could have 10,000 of them  for a cost of say 3,500,000.

 Sell them slowly at 1500  once they sold 2400 of them.  the other 7600 are free.

7600 machines  are 36ph  that could be turned on and off to mine at will.

they would need 10 megawatts  .  it is possible this is being done.

Remember the gear is paid for.  I saw a tv show on 60 minutes about empty cities in China.  their construction was government funded.

whats 10mega watts to a large government? nothing.

Why do all this?  WTF do I know.  But it would go beyond the money angle if it was being done.

yeah, check this out:
http://bravenewcoin.com/news/imf-unable-to-supply-the-currency-needed-to-counter-speculative-attack-using-bitcoin/

OK, I am in:

+8.3 = alh

Thanks again for running this Phil, and suchmoon for funding it!

got that.

to all we have 38 blocks for picks


 (+8.21%)  is bitcoinwisdom's number.

+9.0 = Ufo

you are in time we have 11 blocks to closing

I need to be off line  so if someone wants to track closing please do so.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   71,492,887,688 (+8.57%)  current guess by them.
Adjust time:   After 827 Blocks, About 5.3 days ---------------we close at 816
Hashrate(?):   522,355,469 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.2 minutes
3 blocks: 27.4 minutes
6 blocks: 54.9 minutes
Updated:   19:25 (1.4 minutes ago)

7 blocks to go!

Edit: which shows that we only made 4 since Phil's post an hour ago, yay :)

Last Call
We are exactly at Block 816 so pretty much Done

Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   71,355,990,814 (+8.36%)
Adjust time:   After 816 Blocks, About 5.2 days

816 blocks remaining in this cycle. Picks are officially closed, Phil will update the thread title when he gets back.

Here is a useful chart to illustrate what was happening the last few days. As you can see AntPool, BTCChina, F2Pool, and especially KnC had exceptional luck.

http://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/hashrate/7d?c=m&t=a

http://i.snag.gy/iI1CM.jpg

Hope http://nextdifficulty.com/ (http://nextdifficulty.com/) is wrong and some bad luck hits soon!


Ufo

'

Don't think they are wrong. Maybe off by 1% or so.

Just closed picks

okay day 8

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

11-11-2015   169 blocks  this is a plus 25   now the first 77 blocks were on the last adjustment  So  on a part day I guess +14

11-12-2015  158 blocks this is plus 14    total is +28
 
11-13-2015   161 blocks  this is plus 17 total is +45

11-14-2015   146 + 2                               +47

11-15-2015   156 is +12                           +59    

 11-16-2015  172 is +28                           +87

11-17-2015   146 is +2                             +89   and plus 2 looks nice

11-18-2015   156 is +12                           +101

we are 1208  made should be  1107  I get (+9.12% )

which is a little worse then bitcoinwisdom

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (+8.27%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   71,295,466,565 (+8.27%)
Adjust time:   After 808 Blocks, About 5.2 days
Hashrate(?):   513,100,488 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.2 minutes
3 blocks: 27.6 minutes
6 blocks: 55.1 minutes
Updated:   22:30 (4.5 minutes ago)


http://nextdifficulty.com/

is 9.1 to 15. with 10.6 as most likely


Conservative: 9.1% 10.6% Continous: 15 %
Next Difficulty Value:72794150521
Change will happen on appr. November 24, 2015, 6:51 am
Blocks to solve in this difficulty: 812 ------------ based on 812 so they are 4 behind bitcoinwisdom


I see 7 as an unlikely low and 12 as an unlikely high

with 9.5 as very close.

but look at last year's numbers

Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s nicest
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s nicer
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s nice
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s ---------- big run up

Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s two nice
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s  ^^^^
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s two runups
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s ^^^^^

Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s


these are encouraging

Will definitely be an interesting diff period this cycle, the next one is the one I am really interested about.


Ufo

Didn't the difficulty fall back then due to that massive farm fire ?

What fire? Do you have a link?

this was a year ago.  a place  in South asia.

and if you give me time I could find photos


page 6 of spec threads has a ton of my spec threads all in a row


found it
 last nov 2014

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=846810.0;all

http://www.coindesk.com/gallery-fire-destroys-thai-bitcoin-mining-facility/

I think the impact of the fire was incorrectly estimated at that time. The news spread at the beginning of November but later it turned out that it happened in 2-3 weeks prior. And the total capacity of that farm appears to have been 4-6 PH/s at most, barely 2% of the the network. Not enough to be distinguished from variance the hashrate charts IMHO. Look at our ~5% swing just over the last few days.

Bitwisdom is looking better:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:    70,269,710,108 (+6.71%)
Adjust time:    After 718 Blocks, About 4.7 days
Hashrate(?):    486,238,357 GH/s

But this could be do to some miners that are shipping right now.  Even if it is I like not seeing a 10 number up there.

No idea what is going on.

That day there were about 5-6 blocks solved every 10-20 minutes. It looked like 100-200PH/s were added to the network and then poof, gone.


I don't think its variance.

Maybe it was Bitfury/KNC new chips but they ran for about 12 hours and then they failed and shut off.

Thanks Suchmoon.

well here are some facts.

the s-7 can do .25 watts per gh

a 100mega watt farm is 400ph capable .

my home can do 6.667 kwatts of mining

so 3 guys like me can do 20kwatts in their home

30 guys can do  200 kwatts

300 homes can do 2000 kwatts or 2 megawatts

3000 homes can do 20 megawatts

30,000 homes can do 200 megawatts   and if all were using s-7's  at .25 watts  that would be 800ph. more then our entire network.

SO to think a government could ask a company such as bitmaintech or bitfury or knc to build a big plant /farm  with the ability to add 100ph-400ph  of hash is not nutty. To think it is up and running on command right now I am not so sure.
But it would not be very costly.

 I would think 40 megawatt power  plant built by China solely to supply bitmaintech power is not a stretch.  I am just not sure of the why of it.

I just happened to look and currently it's the devil's difficulty: 6.66% ;)

Hope it continues to trend down, but I doubt it will...

well if I look at https://blockchain.info/blocks/1447898154776



384364 (Main Chain)
384229 (Main Chain)

136 made  for the 19th and thats a drop


 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty     has 6.66


Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   70,248,995,057 (+6.68%)
Adjust time:   After 675 Blocks, About 4.4 days
Hashrate(?):   483,894,379 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.4 minutes
3 blocks: 28.2 minutes
6 blocks: 56.5 minutes
Updated:   20:55 (3.4 minutes ago)


classic signs of diff manipulation maybe .  variance maybe.

both  most likely

Price is taking a little of a dive at coinbase right now: 313.55  So loss of value of 21.15 in 24 hours currently.

Hopefully this reverses soon as i don't like watching it dive down.  I liked having 330 as new floor.

okay day 9

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

11-11-2015   169 blocks  this is a plus 25   now the first 77 blocks were on the last adjustment  So  on a part day I guess +14

11-12-2015  158 blocks this is plus 14    total is +28
 
11-13-2015   161 blocks  this is plus 17 total is +45

11-14-2015   146 + 2                               +47

11-15-2015   156 is +12                           +59    

 11-16-2015  172 is +28                           +87

11-17-2015   146 is +2                             +89   and plus 2 looks nice

11-18-2015   156 is +12                           +101

11-19-2015   131 is -13                            +88  same drop about the same time last diff adj


1358 blocks made should be  1270    which is +6.92%


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (+7.10)
Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   70,520,828,888 (+7.10%)
Adjust time:   After 658 Blocks, About 4.3 days
Hashrate(?):   489,151,772 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.3 minutes
3 blocks: 28.1 minutes
6 blocks: 56.1 minutes
Updated:   

It's been pretty much the same drop at the end of almost every diff since a few months back ... the last 2-3 days .... we see a big drop in hashrate.

It's pretty consistent to be a coincidence, too.  I wonder if the larger mines do this on purpose so that the next adjustment is slightly lower, thereby making their operations a bit more profitable for the next adjustment period.  Or is that just a paranoid delusional idea?  :-X

don't know but today we are up with a strong number.


384485 (Main Chain)   2015-11-20 16:13:14      16 hours and 13 min = 97 blocks

384365 (Main Chain) 2015-11-20 00:10:17


but we did   121  not 97  this is too big not to be a power gear power down gear cause.

it is over 24.7 % but yesterday at    131 vs 144 is  -9.02%


that is really not variance  that is power on power off.   It is a flux of over 120ph

I don't know for the operation to shutdown for 3.5-4 day's with a lot of hash that seems like a lot of lost profit.  For most operations I think they would just leave it on.

Only way I could see it happening is if it's a maker of miners.  If a big one wanted difficulty not to show huge on change as it might effect sales. So they would have a reason if sales of miners go down for some big changes.

But I don't see anyone shutting down honestly for this amount of days to effect difficulty.   But I could always be wrong this is speculating.

It's pretty consistent because it is variance. Shutting off miners in order to lower next adjustment will actually make your operations less profitable unless it causes difficulty change going really negative. Only way to make most money is to mine with everything you have without disruptions. Exception is selling the miners to public when the ROI starts to be boring :)

Nice view of variance can be seen on this chart. It happens over and over again and it's being denied by public over and over again :)
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png

Not true if government subsidies are involved and if you don't think China's government is involved you could be correct.  But if you think China's government is not involved

or that the are not capable of direct power subsidy to bitmaintech or avalon  look at this

http://www.businessinsider.com/60-minutes-chinas-ghost-cities-2013-3


there is enough power in the cities above to provide for all the mining equipment in the world.


I can think that  5 guys in five of the cities above shunt power to mines in china for next to 0 cost.  the catch is they can not do it 24/7/365

So they cut a deal with an asic builder  and the builder has mines that turn on and off. 

How hard is it for this to be the reason vs variance?  Or better  yet both  my case example of power on and power off.  Plus your idea of variance.

Phil, you'll remember that I was extremely skeptical about the PHashes that were sitting around offline and able to be turned on if the price jumped. I plainly refused to believe there were tens of MWs sitting around that could be switched on, but then we had a quick run up here. (I had figured there would be less than 5M.W

We saw 100PH (on the 3.5 day average) come online very quickly in only eight or nine days. The most efficient equipment, and anything below .7w/gh, was already online, maybe higher. That means we saw a spike of around 70+ MW if you attribute it all to old gear. There was probably a fair bit less due to variance and a lot of new equipment, but that still means 40MW or 50MW of old equipment was thrown back online and now appears to be coming off. Even Bitmain can't crank out 20PH in a week.

I'll admit it, I threw 10kW of old gear on there (1.1w/gh), and actually haven't taken it off yet since it's still above break even for me at this price, although we'll see what difficulty brings.

So, there wasn't a ton of gear ready to just be switched on, but there was plenty of capacity and machines near enough by that people through on a lot of extra online in just a few days.

good point a lot of older gear turned on and off makes sense too.

I know people at work that turned on old gpu machines when it spiked. I don't see someone sitting on 100ph idling waiting for the market rise, I see a shitload of people see the price spike and go to their attics/basements , dust their old friends off and fire them up. I would lean towards that as the spike to be honest, so I agree with phil.

I bet if the price spikes to $400 with resistance that there will be a huge spike again that lasts longer.

Fun times :)


Ufo

okay day 10

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

11-11-2015   169 blocks  this is a plus 25   now the first 77 blocks were on the last adjustment  So  on a part day I guess +14

11-12-2015  158 blocks this is plus 14    total is +28
 
11-13-2015   161 blocks  this is plus 17 total is +45

11-14-2015   146 + 2                               +47

11-15-2015   156 is +12                           +59    

 11-16-2015  172 is +28                           +87

11-17-2015   146 is +2                             +89   and plus 2 looks nice

11-18-2015   156 is +12                           +101

11-19-2015   131 is -13                            +88  same drop about the same time last diff adj

11-20-2015   169 blocks or + 25               back up to a very big  113 over.

1525 blocks made should be  1412    which is +8.00%


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (+7.73%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   70,935,427,608 (+7.73%)
Adjust time:   After 491 Blocks, About 3.1 days
Hashrate(?):   499,662,832 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.2 minutes
3 blocks: 27.6 minutes
6 blocks: 55.3 minutes
Updated:   23:10 (7.0 minutes ago)



my number is higher then bitcoinwisdom's     and at 491 blocks we are near 3 days.

I don't know.

I really doubt that people sit and wait by the computer and whenever BTC goes over a certain level they immediately power on-power off their gear.

I also don't believe mega farms shut down gear at the end of the difficulty cycle to get a smaller difficulty, they would lose more money that way.

I know that power is cheaper on certain hours of the day so that could be a theory but that would mean then during certain hours the hashrate increases not a certain day off the week.


I really think that a new ASIC chip is out there in operation and its very buggy so they ran it for a while and then it either burnt out or causes too many hardware errors and they are tweaking setting to get it to work properly.

I like my China ghost city idea best. If an s-5 is 50% power and 50% profit.  and i am bitmaintech having a ghost city s-5 10ph farm and a 5ph s-3 ghost city mine.

seems like it is not far fetched.  power turns on  when ever it can. since the gear was paid off why not move it to a ghost city and run it when power is available.

Estimated Next Difficulty:    70,819,346,021 (+7.55%)
Adjust time:    After 480 Blocks, About 3.1 days
Hashrate(?):    506,027,398 GH/s

better than +1x%!!!  :)

Ok... I need .06 of everyone to turn of miners so I can be right.  Which I never am :) but it's still fun to speculate.

We do have some miners that have went out.  So it will be interesting if it goes up some more once plugged in, or if they are already plugged in.   But I do agree not seeing 1X change is nice just not to see.

Just saw a article about this on digg: http://priceonomics.com/surveying-the-ghost-cities-of-china/

There are a lot more ghost cities then I would have guessed.   I guess it makes sense they would have a good amount of unused power in each of them.   So would be interesting if anything is happening in them with mining.

yeah it is a great way to use old gear.

I remember a guy in china grabbed up a ton of s-3's  dirt cheap last spring and was running a 2 or 3 ph farm with them. He said he could use the s-3's because he had 2 cent power.

It seems to me that this old gear paid off sitting in a ghost city could be fired up pretty easy.


http://natocouncil.ca/ghost-cities-in-china/

just think how many s-3's could be turned on and off in this set of buildings.

It could be done with government approval as a way of testing and maintaining the power grids in those cities.

Hey @ bitmaintech   I know you read the thread....  If you are not doing this you should be.  Feel free to send me some coins for the

idea.   https://blockchain.info/address/164o6jGhpciHC8Lg4XiXyprKfrqZK3tST6


https://i.imgur.com/0lXZrKF.jpg

But the gear would have to have been built first to be used in these ghost towns. To turn 100Ph/s on and off, is like 200,000 Antminer S3's. I don't think that many Antminers in total even exist on the planet.



384638 (Main Chain)   2015-11-21 15:20:06   AntPool   0000000000000000033e5efed37742ec7925ff825853ce21fbd53592c1489620
384532 (Main Chain)   2015-11-21 00:02:42   F2Pool   00000000000000000860c5b9429f78ed94db860c347ec72ac0f7cc3a1b3371b8

106 blocks in ~15.5 hours should be 93 blocks instead.


14% difference




Even in the last 20 minutes, 6 blocks were found.

Bitwisdom did go back up:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:    71,773,382,950 (+9.00%)
Adjust time:    After 404 Blocks, About 2.5 days
Hashrate(?):    518,513,335 GH/s

Maybe some miners got shipped and are being plugged in currently.  It would not surprise me at all.  I still hope we see less than 10 though.

  realistically they don't have 100ph just too much, but 5-20ph they could.

20ph in s-1's were built  50ph in s-3's were built   75ph in s-5's were made.

I don't really think they can turn off and on 100ph.  but  5-20ph in 10 spots in ghost towns  they could

and the gear  would be toss away gear s-1's s-3's  how many in a white  van?   100 s-3's in 1 van = easy.

fit them in a building like the photo  and boom 50th   at the flick of a switch.  the antminer psu can do 4 s-3's at an under clock to 350 watts.  so only 25 psu's   a few gigabyte switches and a router.

keep it under 200 per  location and 1 guy or 2 guys can set it up.

384532 (Main Chain)   2015-11-21 00:02:42   F2Pool   00000000000000000860c5b9429f78ed94db860c347ec72ac0f7cc3a1b3371b8
384667 (Main Chain)   2015-11-21 18:14:30   Slush   000000000000000001b11ef38a2a4d7e30ad9064529ef50e4a77bd1ddb72f099


110 Expected and 135 Found so 23% TODAY!

huge fucking spike today

 384669 (Main Chain)   2015-11-21 18:46:14

384532 (Main Chain)   2015-11-21 00:02:42

138 in the time it should be 113 

so that would be  174 in 24 hours.

10% looks pretty certain.

Glad to see you all are starting to see what I've been saying.  I think it's above the realm of variance I would expect 10% spike for variance. So possible that it's only a 10% of network sized farm cranking on.  Could be hw tests.  Hell the diff should technically double at least with the new efficiency of machines. Just have to see what's up:). Sure is fun to speculate :)

Best regards
D57heinz

diff to catch up to  sept 4 price diff eff ratio

 needs to be over 110.

 this won't happen since all that .5 watt gear won't vanish.

Somewhere 2 months ago I predicted a quick move to 70 then flat  .  with not a big price jump.

well price jumped.  I will changed prediction higher.  85 then flat.  going past 85  will not be easy. (price at 350 or so)

once again WTF do I know? Bottom line is it is just a guess!

384689 (Main Chain)   2015-11-21 21:25:42   BW.COM   000000000000000006bc8785d43270bdf0ec0f03dc3b496781b11d5c0de29bf9
384532 (Main Chain)   2015-11-21 00:02:42   F2Pool   00000000000000000860c5b9429f78ed94db860c347ec72ac0f7cc3a1b3371b8


22.65% more then it should have.

In a few hours we will get the final tally but its definately going to be around 30 blocks extra created than usual.

In the last 180 days
 
17?   Nov  21
169   Nov  20
175   Nov  16
169   Nov  11
167   Oct   30
167   Oct   19

170   Sept  29
167   Sept  25
168   Sept  10
170   Aug   11
168   Aug   10
174   July   24
171   July     6
172   June    6

Easy to see  Oct and Nov are really moving the dial upwards.

May 17 to Sep 17  48.8 bill to 59.3 bill   in 4 months a jump of 21.5%

Sept 17 to Nov 21  59.3 bill to   72.2 bill in 2 months a jump of 21.7%

Day is done so

384705 (Main Chain)   2015-11-21 23:57:32   000000000000000001da84b1e1c3ce89af70960989397061eadeb4596444d7ca
384532 (Main Chain)   2015-11-21 00:02:42   00000000000000000860c5b9429f78ed94db860c347ec72ac0f7cc3a1b3371b8

173 blocks found when should of been 144

+29

20%

That is crazy never thought I would see those numbers again with size of hashrate now.   Below is bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:    72,222,173,626 (+9.68%)
Adjust time:    After 336 Blocks, About 2.1 days
Hashrate(?):    526,826,811 GH/s

I think i agree with those saying over 10 chances are... which is not really the way we want it to go.

Estimated Next Difficulty:    72,591,042,295 (+10.24%)
Adjust time:    After 317 Blocks, About 2.0 days
Hashrate(?):    536,067,649 GH/s

craaaaap!
fuckin' big leap, fuckin' big swings... damn the price!!!

I think 20% is considered a good thing.

Right now

384741 (Main Chain)   2015-11-22 03:31:09   Slush   000000000000000001ac0df7bfb9349fd6d8cd7acdea584520d33f8b3ad8d915

384706 (Main Chain)   2015-11-22 00:01:54   F2Pool   00000000000000000bcf3e6f7580c8cddcef9bcc460447fcca368c41c5b2a724

66%

But its much too early in the day.

Net Hashrate

664,821.06 TH/s 

and when the network gets that speed we will be at 92,874,428,825.17302000 diff

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png
Best Regards
d57heinz

fud  and not accurate   you  use short time and state it to be fact. it is a half truth or yellow journalism.


  here is fact as of right now we are +9.5%  and not +41.5%  as you suggest.

we  made 1704  should be 1556   I get  (+9.51%)


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+10.24%)


Don't be a Seriouscoin  dude.

Guys you're getting ridiculous. There is a reason diff is adjusted based the average of 2016 blocks. Yes, it's going to be a big one. No, it's not 60% or even 20%, not even close. As an exercise try calculating the possible MAXIMUM diff increase this cycle, i.e. if all remaining blocks were solved instantaneously.

Using heavily rounded numbers, if the remaining blocks (until the difficulty adjusts) were to be solved nearly instantly then the difficulty would increase roughly 27%.

Again using heavily rounded numbers, we are about 150 blocks ahead where we would be expected to be if luck remained at 100% and no equipment was ever added nor removed from the network. Based on 11/14 days into this difficulty period (severe rounding is going to make this number inaccurate), we are looking at a roughly 15% increase.

There you go, messing up an exciting story with math and facts.....  :)

Yes, it's going to feel like a gut punch, but it's not going to even be 20%.

If it's less then 11% I will consider it a win, which it isn't from a mining perspective for me.

Any recommendations for asic co-lo's? I pay 0.085c right now, so I am looking for an exit already. Preferably, a recommendation from established members that have used the co-lo's that have positive ratings.

Thanks in advance!


Ufo

Gotcha.. well if i win this round just keep it!

Best Regards and good luck with your contest
Doug

http://www.coindesk.com/bitfury-completion-16nm-bitcoin-mining-asic/

Little reminder for all of you .  thinking it will level off lmao

ohh and this is a speculation thread.... But i can prove everything i said with charts and numbers.. so to flat out basically cal me a liar is rather bold of you to say the least not to mention not very good community liaison if you ask me. Keep sucking bitmain hind tit maybe that will get you somewhere!

Best Regards
Doug
d57heinz

hey don't be insulted  it is not about predicting that 92 diff is happening or that 150 diff will happen.

Both may happen down the road.

 you are writing like  92 bill diff  is happening in 1 day it is not.

And  72 bill diff is to happen in a day .


sept  4 diff was 56 bill

sept 4 price was 230

so 56 to 72 = 28%  diff

  235 to 325 = 38%  price jump

So if you stood pat with an s-5   from sept 4 until now  you had 2 ½ good mining months.

If you switched to S-7 in early sept  and sold your s-5's when price spiked to 490-510  you also whaled.

The sky has not fallen.   And diff will level off again

so let me get this straight. i wasnt saying the diff was where it was.. im working in 24 hour time frames and talking about what the current net hashrate is at the time i posted, which the swings we been having on the 24 hour isnt variance. but ok we agree to disagree.. but you tell me not to be insulted while you insult me.. how can i not be insulted...how about quit selling for bitmain as your opinions are obviously biased as hell.... but anyway im talking about the 24 hour time frame  if you look here you can see it moving in big ways.. but im done here you insulted me for the one and only time.. Good luck with your thread.  and by the looks of the list i think i have a good grip on whats going on.. just sorry that you all are on the philipma train with blinders on.  
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png
watch the blue line
Best Regards
d57heinz

you are in too small of a space is what I am saying.  and your writing style projects a small timeline  into a big one.

92 bill is not happening anytime soon.




Tell you what  that number won't be true

 92 bill  until end of Jan 2016 or later.

   If price stays stable by stable if price is under 375.

Alright lets not argue. You are correct in saying you can't take the variance in difficulty especially in small time frames. I shouldn't of posted that 66% gain in difficulty taken 3 hours after the day started.

Currently for the day we are at 123 blocks and it should of been 99 block so . Today is looking again like a 24% day

yes i agree today looks bad. this entire adjustment looks bad. it looks to be over ten percent for sure.

i will also guess a second bad jump since even at 72 - 75 diff we have not caught up to the price gains we made since sept 4 .

maybe we don't stop until we reach 92 but 92 is still off on the horizon for now.

my next goal is review the avalon 6 and compare it to the s-7

abandon ship! difficulty is going to explode !

well it looks like it will keep moving up  and up.


it needs to be 78.68 to match the price jump we had since sept 4

235 to 325 = 1.3829


56.9 to 78.68 = 1.3829


so after tomorrow the diff would be close to even out.

of course we need to do numbers for the s-7 and the avalon 6 and winter.

  so  the 78.68 still seems too low .

@d57heinz  maybe I failed to understand your style of writing and projected a wrong interpretation of what you meant.

I think we both agree difficulty will continue to rise. We may disagree how fast or what it really should be.

A month ago we had:

$250 per coin
~60 billion diff

Now we have:

$320 per coin (28% increase)
soon ~73 billion diff (21% increase)

So in terms of mining revenue the change is still positive. Ironically though, the more outdated your gear the greater the impact has been (not accounting for higher density of newer equipment of course).

For example if you were spending $200 of each mined coin on electricity in October your net income was ~0.2 BTC or $50. Adjusted for price and difficulty next week it would be ~0.25 BTC or $80 (approx +25% and +60%).

If you we spending $50 of each mined coin on electricity in October your net income was ~0.8 BTC or $200. Adjusted for price and difficulty next week it would be ~0.81 BTC or $260  (approx +0% and +30%).

This won't last I think. Diff will catch up and pass the 28% due to the more efficient gear flooding the market. But we can still hope the halving will shake the price up again.

Yes I agree we are making more now then in the past but if the price doesn't keep rising then we will end up making less.

The other problem is that it's not so easy to upgrade now because hardware is so overpriced. 1+ BTC per TH/s - nearly the same as it was a year ago, I paid ~2.5 BTC for an S4 back then. The S7 (or the Avalon) has ~1/3 of the power consumption of the S4 but even with that in mind the end result still is: I'm going to mine less BTC per each BTC spent on hardware than I did a year ago, which means that hardware would need to last longer to ROI, which seems unlikely with faster rising diff and halving.

This is part of why I like keeping some of my holdings in gear.  It by far is not a sure thing, but I enjoy it.  And it's been good to me over the years.

But S4's looking back were a really good deal.  I mined with mine for a LONG time through summer even, they were part of reason I got a mining area.  But after all that mining they hold a amazing amount of their value still.  So those who had S4's (if decent electricity) have done well I think.  And selling it eventually is the cherry on-top.

Yep. Also SP20 at $500 last December. I sold the last few just recently... for $500 each  ;D

Somehow I doubt I'll get $1500 or 4 BTC or anything close to that for the S7 or the Avalon6 a year from now.

Not sure about prices 1 year from now, but  looks like a make gear and sell like mad is going to be the builders move.

Growth is huge another really big day today.

Today will be the day the most hash was ever added.  We are going to push 180 blocks (maybe)  and add a lot more gear.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (+10.04%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   72,456,152,977 (+10.04%)
Adjust time:   After 207 Blocks, About 1.3 days
Hashrate(?):   560,095,703 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.1 minutes
3 blocks: 27.1 minutes
6 blocks: 54.3 minutes
Updated:   14:50 (4.5 minutes ago)

I think the reason why gear is much more expensive now then a year ago is because a year ago price was CRASHING and difficulty was skyrocketing.

Its probably a safer bet buying an S7 now then it was buying an S2/S3/S4 last year right when they came out.

yeah we had a price melt down  in 2014 

995 in Jan 2014
814 in Feb 2014
712 in Mar 2014
547 in Apr 2014
585 in May 2014
660 in Jun 2014
629 in Jul   2014
591 in Aug 2014
495 in Sep 2014
393 in Oct 2014
367 in Nov 2014 ------------pretty close to price now
377 in Dec 2014
270 in Jan 2015    but under 185 for a day or two

My bet is that right now, the ASIC vendors (Bitmain, Avalon, etc) are looking at the halving and thinking that they will have a much harder time selling out gear leading up to that and some time afterwards. Something like:

"Make Hay while the Sun is shining"

Six months from now will be exciting (aka turbulent) times I think.

Later on it ended up stabilizing but the day ended up being +15.7%

I am thinking they have decided to sell sell sell sell sell sell and sell more.  If so this will be very interesting 6 months.

picks have started
you can pick lower then me if you dare :D
      
-1.2  =  lolxxx                  looks like I have a visitor!!    
-1.1  =  philipma1957
      
-0.0   =
    
 0.0   =      
 
+2.0 = BTCish  

+3.1 = RichBC
+3.2 = Tupsu
+3.3 = edonkey

+4.0 = mavericklm
+4.1 = Biodom
+4.2 = HerbPean
+4.3 = dukeneptun
+4.4
+4.5 = ingiltere

+4.8 = DanDan
+4.9
+5.0 = adaseb

+5.4 = tss
+5.5
+5.6 = vortexz

+5.9 = Mikestang
+6.0
+6.1 = cakir
+6.3 = Last of the V8s
+6.6 = wlefever
+6.7 = DanielRo

+7.0 = pandacoin

+7.4 = notlist3d
+7.5 = wpt1wpt1
+7.6
+7.7 = ezeminer
+7.8
+7.9 = togesix
+8.0 = EternalWingsofGod
+8.1 = zebedee
+8.2 = Amph
+8.3 = alh
+8.4 = Questor
+8.5
+8.6 = flikflak
+8.7 = indiemax
+8.8 = Lituation
+8.9= VirosaGITS
+9.0 = UfoRia
+9.1= GreatNorthData  you are very welcome.
+9.2 =Zz

+9.6 = jonnybravo0311
+9.7 = d57heinz 
+9.8 = Kexkey

+11.2 = SwordsofFreedom

+12.2 = 64dimensions



final pick list is above   a few numbers in contention


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+10.08%)
Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   72,487,079,597 (+10.08%)
Adjust time:   After 171 Blocks, About 1.1 days
Hashrate(?):   559,392,317 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.1 minutes
3 blocks: 27.2 minutes
6 blocks: 54.5 minutes
Updated:   19:50 (4.0 minutes ago)

Wow, this is going to be an interesting next couple of days...

okay day 12

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

11-11-2015   169 blocks  this is a plus 25   now the first 77 blocks were on the last adjustment  So  on a part day I guess +14

11-12-2015  158 blocks this is plus 14    total is +28
 
11-13-2015   161 blocks  this is plus 17 total is +45

11-14-2015   146 + 2                               +47

11-15-2015   156 is +12                           +59    

 11-16-2015  172 is +28                           +87

11-17-2015   146 is +2                             +89   and plus 2 looks nice

11-18-2015   156 is +12                           +101

11-19-2015   131 is -13                            +88  same drop about the same time last diff adj

11-20-2015   169 blocks or + 25               back up to a very big  113 over.

11-21-2015   178 blocks or + 35                   148 over more then 1 full day!  
  
11-22-2015   170 blocks + 26                          174 over


the last 3 days are the worst or best three days in a row for the last six months

we are 1864 blocks made should be 1690  which makes us  (+10.29%)


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty    says (+10.19%)
Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   72,558,347,171 (+10.19%)
Adjust time:   After 152 Blocks, About 23.0 hours
Hashrate(?):   555,068,286 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.1 minutes
3 blocks: 27.1 minutes
6 blocks: 54.3 minutes
Updated:   22:40 (4.5 minutes ago)


we may go to 11%  but on the 19th we did 131 blocks so maybe we drop to 9%   price is in the 320 area

11% + for sure !

There is a large demand for new equipment. The biggest demand from the mines themselves.
Look at the recent purchases of equipment in HaoBTC - 1,600 units of A6 !:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1072474.560

Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   73,070,999,369 (+10.97%)
Adjust time:   After 91 Blocks, About 13.8 hours
Hashrate(?):   559,322,075 GH/s

It'll be probably more than %10.
I didn't expect that much difficulty raise. That's very surprising to me. ::)

https://blockchain.info/blocks


384968 (Main Chain)2015-11-23 12:42:58
384878 (Main Chain)2015-11-23 00:03:32

91 blocks   should be 76 in 12 hours and 42 min about 19.7% for today only.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (+10.92%)  looks to be pretty big


Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   73,038,472,540 (+10.92%)
Adjust time:   After 88 Blocks, About 13.3 hours
Hashrate(?):   559,304,518 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.1 minutes
3 blocks: 27.3 minutes
6 blocks: 54.6 minutes
Updated:   8:0 (43.0 seconds ago)

right now SwordsofFreedom  has 11.2 pick  he could win

Since they bought $2.5 Million dollars worth of miners, they are pretty much betting that the price of BTC will be much higher then it is presently $320.

Just look at intensifying the accumulation of external funds: PACMIC, interest-bearing deposits in HaoBTC or BitBank. It was not before on such a scale.

Well the game is growing.  I will soon go from 2 s-7's = 9.6th to 16.6th as I am adding 2 avalon 6's

I have  1 s-7   hosted  and  I have 2500gh in s-7 on hashnest.  So that will be 23.6th  I am adding 2 more s-7's in dec = 32.6th

At this point I will be set until the spring.

Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   72,827,596,021 (+10.60%)
Adjust time:   After 74 Blocks, About 11.3 hours
Hashrate(?):   549,121,516 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.1 minutes
3 blocks: 27.4 minutes
6 blocks: 54.8 minutes

Will it decrease to less than %10? Only 74 blocks left but I see a down trend.
91 blocks +10.97
81 blocks +10.92
74 blocks +10.60

With that logic it would be somewhere around +9.80 to +10.00. Still far from my prediction (+8.80).

Estimated Next Difficulty:   72,673,017,777 (+10.36%)
Adjust time:   After 47 Blocks, About 7.3 hours
Hashrate(?):   550,789,307 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.2 minutes
3 blocks: 27.8 minutes
6 blocks: 55.5 minutes

Ok this is getting exciting.

To spice it up a bit I'm offering a quick Yes/No quiz for the first 10 posters who respond in this thread - read below.

0.05 BTC total prize.

The question you need to answer: is the upcoming difficulty adjustment going to be in double digits? (i.e. +10.00% or more)

Only the first 10 posts after this one will count. For example if 4 posters answer Yes, 6 posters answer No, and diff goes up by 10.41% then the 0.05 BTC prize will be divided among the 4 posters who answered Yes, i.e. 0.0125 BTC each.

Entries won't be accepted after less than 10 blocks remain (if we don't fill the 10 spots by then).

This is NOT related to the main contest, which is likely to end in a rollover.

This quick quiz is guaranteed to pay out no matter what the result of the diff change is going to be.

Again, the question is:

Is the upcoming difficulty adjustment going to be in double digits? (i.e. +10.00% or more)

Post Yes or No below.

Edit: feel free to post the actual percentage you're guessing too and/or any reasoning why you think that way.

Yes. Here it comes.

+7.8 = Jamphone
or
+7.6 = Jamphone

In case 7.8 is taken already

Sorry, the main contest is closed... your "Yes"  for the extra quiz has been counted, thank you!

Yes it'll be higher than 10%

Two "Yes" votes so far... 8 spots left.

Is the upcoming difficulty adjustment going to be in double digits? (i.e. +10.00% or more)

Post Yes or No below.

Feel free to post the actual percentage you're guessing too and/or any reasoning why you think that way.

NO!
bloody hell nooooo!  :D ;D :D ;D
hopefully  ::)

Yes.

I think we're heading for close to +12% this time.  Have you all seen that HaoBTC is opening a second mining facility?  They plan to be 20PH by next year.

Three "Yes" votes
One "No" vote
I'm reserving one spot for Phil, 'cause otherwise he's not gonna win anything for a long time stuck down there in the negatives  ;D

5 spots left.

Is the upcoming difficulty adjustment going to be in double digits? (i.e. +10.00% or more)

Post Yes or No below.

Feel free to post the actual percentage you're guessing too and/or any reasoning why you think that way.

No

Going for the underdog and hopefully a dip before the adjustment.

YES, but just barely.

Way higher than I was willing to think back when I put in my guess......

Four "Yes" votes
Two "No" votes
One vote reserved for Phil

3 spots left.

Is the upcoming difficulty adjustment going to be in double digits? (i.e. +10.00% or more)

Post Yes or No below.

Feel free to post the actual percentage you're guessing too and/or any reasoning why you think that way.

Lower, just under 9.95%, because my first thought was higher and I am always wrong.....

Rich

Yes it will be.

Dont want to edit my previous post because it would make it invalid but we are currently at +12% for the day so since it was around +20% or so for the previous few days, it will most likely stay at +12% or higher for the next few hours until the adjustment so its definately going to be over +10.

FREE MONEY!

Five "Yes" votes
Three "No" votes
One vote reserved for Phil

1 last spot remaining.

Is the upcoming difficulty adjustment going to be in double digits? (i.e. +10.00% or more)

Post Yes or No below.

Feel free to post the actual percentage you're guessing too and/or any reasoning why you think that way.

I vote yes.

Edit: with 31 blocks to go bitcoinwisdom is estimating a 10.68% increase in difficulty however the last 500 and 1,000 blocks have been found at a more quick pace verses the preceding blocks which implies that additional mining capacity has been added to the network since the start of the difficulty period (ignoring luck) which means that blocks should be found at a more quick pace now then they were at the beginning of the difficulty period.

If I had to guess I would say the difficulty will increase somewhere in the 10.65 to 11% range and if I had to guess a specific value then I would say 10.7%. With so few blocks to go, there is very little in either direction that the difficulty can go barring a highly unlikely event.

Six "Yes" votes
Three "No" votes
One vote reserved for Phil

The quiz is closed now. Phil please post your opinion by block 2006. You have an unfair advantage obviously :)

Thank you all for participating. I'm hoping for a much closer contest than it currently looks like - edging towards 11% again.

Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   72,869,681,621 (+10.66%)
Adjust time:   After 29 Blocks, About 4.4 hours

yes I am picking 11.11

got busy with the 2 avalon 6s

well seeing I can run 2 s-7's and avalon 6s I see a big one right after this one at least a 6+  my thinking is anyone in a cold spot is buying the gear that they are selling.  and both companies are selling like mad.   so this 72 bill will soon be 80 bill

Of course  ;D

We have 7:3 bets on the difficulty adjustment being 10% or more. We'll see how it turns out in about 4 hours from now.

13 blocks (~2 hours) to go and we're down slightly.

Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   72,730,764,036 (+10.45%)
Adjust time:   After 13 Blocks, About 2.0 hours

Edit: to put this into perspective - the last 10+ change was November 5, 2014...

Well, November is when the winter cold come, so i'm hoping we can chalk this up as the annual Diff raise that come with the cold coming and many switching to smart ASIC heating for the winter.

Considering the BTC raise we got and that seem to be holding, its not surprising the difficulty went up in the first place. Hopefully it settles... now.

It's going to hurt on this difficulty.  I did not think I would see a over 10 difficulty again.... just so much hash out there.  But it looks like its going to be over 10.

Wow is all I can say.  And hope next week is less... i like 5 or under.

Yes its going to hurt

currently we make

0.00733197 BTC / Thash/s


On F2Pool which is very little to begin with.

Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   72,633,383,533 (+10.30%)
Adjust time:   After 3 Blocks, About 27.3 minutes
Hashrate(?):   553,905,670 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.1 minutes
3 blocks: 27.3 minutes
6 blocks: 54.6 minutes
Updated:   20:5 (1.6 minutes ago)

THIS IS IT!


[2015-11-24 02:26:52] Network difficulty changed to 72.7G (520.6Ph/s)
 [2015-11-24 02:26:52] Stratum from pool 0 detected new block



F2Pool went from 0.00733197 BTC / Thash/s to 0.00663888 BTC / Thash/s

We still have 1 more block to go, less than 9.1 minute.

Bitcoin Difficulty:   72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty:   79,170,440,232 (+8.87%)
Adjust time:   After 2016 Blocks, About 14.1 days
Hashrate(?):   554,005,337 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   20:35 (10.0 seconds ago)

BitFury just taped out their 16nm chips, so their new mine should start gearing up soon. meh!

The official number is +10.44%

Nobody wins the main prize.

There are 7 winners for the double-digit quick quiz.

Each gets 0.00714286 BTC - please everybody who said "Yes" send me your BTC address.

If they have that new chip perfected that scares me personally.  If as reported it's like 1/3 or less then current gen efficiency... so massive jump.

If I was them with the magic chip I would be pumping out very fast and changing out all old hardware.  This scares me that it likely is not 1 week of high difficulty change.

@ notlist3d do you feel like running it this adjustment?

It all will depend on their QA\QC, so when that is announced and they start filling their data center. Bad things will be happening if we keep this trend up through the winter. With day trading I am only 112 days at current price/difficulty on my roi for my nine s7's. I am really wanting to mine until the halving, but if the next couple of jumps are close to ten I think I will just sell my miners and leave most of the coins in cold storage and go back to trading with 10-30% of my coins on the swings.

I am kicking myself in the ass for not dumping a large portion of my coins before the difficulty increase and my expected drop in price since the pump will likely be nice.... sigh.


Ufo

Sure! I will get one going for this adjustment and watch over it.

1JRVGkQg5cVqbr2cwDQkJF7PrxGMVWSrLZ is my addy that the~.007 can be sent to :)

please roll mine over to the next pool. thanks.

Ah was off by 1%  ;) Technically was also a Yes by default since I did pick 11% heh heh but wasn't lurking at the time of settlement so gz to winners and tks suchmoon for doing that :)
Always next time to get it right either way it was an interesting round

1Cxn5fnZo5SV6iGUgCgk5r3rrF9HX6fZ3T, address in my profile, thank you!

I haven't been active in bitcoin very long and I've almost seen the difficulty double already.  There's more hardware coming online, too.  I wonder if this is like a mad dash before the halving next year to get out as much gear as possible and just crank blocks.  Will we see difficulty drops this time next year?  Could be, will be interesting to look back.

I've sent my btc address via pm :)
Thanks a lot!
in case you missed it; 1C7shK2SaRSx1CDpxvHUvfKdWH7JLbb1Ep

Thank you all who sent me the addresses. I would like to do one transaction for all (because I'm cheap) so I'm still waiting for two more addresses... let's give them 24 hours.

Jamphone - please send me your BTC address
Bitcoinless - ok
Mikestang - ok
alh - please send me your BTC address
adaseb - ok
Quickseller - ok
philipma1957 - rollover - thank you sir

1NsQHrcixkoowVfz1qqZxuyD7b3qbsNRvP

Sorry for the really late reply. Please just go ahead and roll this over as you did with Phillip. I have won one of these contests a while ago, so I feel it's appropriate for me to pass on this one.

Of course I'll continue to guess and hope to win another!  :)

Thanks again, suchmoon.

Ok, payout sent:

https://blockchain.info/tx/b2182392185faa320572799ea5939139ec553186ac258e79f05bf50ef96e0e9b

I rounded it up a little bit, I hope nobody minds that.

locking this up all paid rollover to next pool makes for a good prize.