Diff thread Nov 11 to Nov 24 Set up stage-picks are now closed!

[Swordsoffreedom]

Pick +11.2% to 11.3 %

That difficulty is something else I'll match it's present state for my call
Bitcoin Difficulty:    65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:    73,229,045,484 (+11.21%)
Adjust time:    After 1050 Blocks, About 6.5 days

[vortexz]

Good thing i ve sold my s7 at a small profit already!!!

[notlist3d]

Good thing i ve sold my s7 at a small profit already!!!

If we get even just a few 10's or close Batch 7 buyers will be off I'm guessing on ROI math will be ineresting to see who hits ROI on batch 7.  With it being possibly a month before shipping could be interesting.

I really hoping it is just a spike and will slow down after a few days.

[Zz]

+9.2 Zz

Tough call, it would be higher though.

[64dimensions]

+12.2%

[jonnybravo0311]

I'll go with +9.6.  I'm keeping my hopes up it will be under 10%

[philipma1957]

picks have started
you can pick lower then me if you dare
      
-1.2  =      
-1.1  =         philipma1957


-0.1   =      
-0.0   =    
 0.0   =      
+0.1  =

+0.9  =
+1.0  =
+1.1  

+1.9  
+2.0 = BTCish  
+2.1  

+2.9
+3.0
+3.1 = RichBC
+3.2 = Tupsu
+3.3 = edonkey
+3.4
 

+3.9
+4.0 = mavericklm
+4.1 = Biodom
+4.2 = HerbPean
+4.3 = dukeneptun
+4.4
+4.5 = ingiltere
+4.6
+4.7
+4.8 = DanDan
+4.9
+5.0 = adaseb
+5.1
+5.2
+5.3
+5.4 = tss
+5.5
+5.6 = vortexz
+5.7
+5.8
+5.9 = Mikestang
+6.0
+6.1 = cakir
+6.2
+6.3
+6.4
+6.5
+6.6 = wlefever
+6.7 = DanielRo
+6.8
+6.9
+7.0 = pandacoin
+7.1
+7.2
+7.3
+7.4 = notlist3d
+7.5 = wpt1wpt1
+7.6
+7.7 = ezeminer
+7.8
+7.9 = togesix
+8.0
+8.1 = zebedee
+8.2 = Amph
+8.3
+8.4
+8.5
+8.6 = flikflak
+8.7
+8.8 = Lituation
+8.9= VirosaGITS
+9.0
+9.1
+9.2 =Zz
+9.3
+9.4
+9.5
+9.6 = jonnybravo0311
+9.7 = d57heinz
+9.8
+9.9
+10.0


+11.2 = SwordsofFreedom

+12.2 = 64dimensions

and  pick up  and over as high as you want to pick
or down as low as you want to pick

blockchaininfo  still shows  a wicked bad  one jump

I tightened up the list  you can still pick any one not picked . by ranges of .1

[philipma1957]

I think this is essentially difficulty trying to catch up with BTC price. We've a significant run up in price, and difficulty is "chasing after price".

I thought the current network size was so large that it was going to virtually impossible to get a 10% increase in difficulty, just because the numbers are so large. Looks like maybe I was wrong.

I am going to wait a bit longer to guess. This going to feel like a brutal increase.

yeah  if you go to sept 4th we were


230usd

diff was 56.9 bill

price now = 335 so diff should be 82.8 bill

now I left 3 factors out:

1)new gear s-5 was .51 watts  S-7 is .25 watts


2) cold weather for most miners

3)the ½ ing is coming.

 if you think these three blend into a factor of 1.0x  then we should go to 82.8 billion


I think the 3 factors are more like 1.2x   so 1.2 x 82.8 =  99.5 bill diff 

So a diff between 82.8 to 99.5 could be true by Jan 1  to do this we will do many 5% or more jumps.
  I still see the network going flat again  once we get to this level of 80-100.

[notlist3d]

So a diff between 82.8 to 99.5 could be true by Jan 1  to do this we will do many 5% or more jumps.
  I still see the network going flat again  once we get to this level of 80-100.

I really hope that does not happen but it's not looking pretty.  I think we will break 10 this time... and I did not ever want to see that high again.  I want 5 and under.  At 10 will be interesting what a lot do as it's much harder to make a profit in current market with most miners. 

Bitwisdom midday:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:    72,617,129,681 (+10.28%)
Adjust time:    After 1013 Blocks, About 6.3 days
Hashrate(?):    530,831,166 GH/s

Still above that 10.  Not sure what I should consider a sucess even a 8-9 percent is not a pretty site.

[adaseb]

Why would the halving affect the current difficulty?

I understand the efficiency and cold weather but not the halving factor.

[Questor]

+8.4 = Questor

[indiemax]

=8.7%  Looking high

[notlist3d]

Why would the halving affect the current difficulty?

I understand the efficiency and cold weather but not the halving factor.

I could see companies thinking about expanding mining operations racing to do it to get as much mining before having as possible.  Essentially they get more money now, a lot of people the big companies will be fine after having i think with electricity rates.

But I see it as a big business advantage of launching new gear now compared to after having.  Granted it might change some if this difficulty changes keep going like this.

[philipma1957]

Why would the halving affect the current difficulty?

I understand the efficiency and cold weather but not the halving factor.

if halving was 18 months off it would not affect your roi caculations. as you would not want gear that takes 18 months to go + on roi.

halving is jun-jul 2016  close to 7-8 months.  this will affect your roi calculations  if your purchase shows roi on Aug 1 2016  the halving could fuck you.

So many people will factor in ½ ing as a negative to profit on gear purchased today since we are closer then Aug 1 more like Jul 1 or sooner if diff is super high.

[philipma1957]

picks have started
you can pick lower then me if you dare
      
-1.2  =      
-1.1  =         philipma1957


-0.1   =      
-0.0   =    
 0.0   =      
+0.1  =

+0.9  =
+1.0  =
+1.1  

+1.9  
+2.0 = BTCish  
+2.1  

+2.9
+3.0
+3.1 = RichBC
+3.2 = Tupsu
+3.3 = edonkey
+3.4
 

+3.9
+4.0 = mavericklm
+4.1 = Biodom
+4.2 = HerbPean
+4.3 = dukeneptun
+4.4
+4.5 = ingiltere
+4.6
+4.7
+4.8 = DanDan
+4.9
+5.0 = adaseb
+5.1
+5.2
+5.3
+5.4 = tss
+5.5
+5.6 = vortexz
+5.7
+5.8
+5.9 = Mikestang
+6.0
+6.1 = cakir
+6.2
+6.3
+6.4
+6.5
+6.6 = wlefever
+6.7 = DanielRo
+6.8
+6.9
+7.0 = pandacoin
+7.1
+7.2
+7.3
+7.4 = notlist3d
+7.5 = wpt1wpt1
+7.6
+7.7 = ezeminer
+7.8
+7.9 = togesix
+8.0
+8.1 = zebedee
+8.2 = Amph
+8.3
+8.4 = Questor
+8.5
+8.6 = flikflak
+8.7 = indiemax
+8.8 = Lituation
+8.9= VirosaGITS
+9.0
+9.1
+9.2 =Zz
+9.3
+9.4
+9.5
+9.6 = jonnybravo0311
+9.7 = d57heinz
+9.8
+9.9
+10.0


+11.2 = SwordsofFreedom

+12.2 = 64dimensions

and  pick up  and over as high as you want to pick
or down as low as you want to pick

blockchaininfo  still shows  a wicked bad  one jump

I tightened up the list  you can still pick any one not picked . by ranges of .1
[/quote]

[GreatNorthData]

+9.1 = GreatNorthData

Please and thank you.

[philipma1957]

picks have started
you can pick lower then me if you dare
      
-1.2  =      
-1.1  =  philipma1957
      
-0.0   =
    
 0.0   =      
 
+2.0 = BTCish  

+3.1 = RichBC
+3.2 = Tupsu
+3.3 = edonkey

+4.0 = mavericklm
+4.1 = Biodom
+4.2 = HerbPean
+4.3 = dukeneptun
+4.4
+4.5 = ingiltere

+4.8 = DanDan
+4.9
+5.0 = adaseb

+5.4 = tss
+5.5
+5.6 = vortexz

+5.9 = Mikestang
+6.0
+6.1 = cakir

+6.6 = wlefever
+6.7 = DanielRo

+7.0 = pandacoin

+7.4 = notlist3d
+7.5 = wpt1wpt1
+7.6
+7.7 = ezeminer
+7.8
+7.9 = togesix
+8.0
+8.1 = zebedee
+8.2 = Amph
+8.3
+8.4 = Questor
+8.5
+8.6 = flikflak
+8.7 = indiemax
+8.8 = Lituation
+8.9= VirosaGITS
+9.0
+9.1= GreatNorthData  you are very welcome.
+9.2 =Zz

+9.6 = jonnybravo0311
+9.7 = d57heinz

+11.2 = SwordsofFreedom

+12.2 = 64dimensions

and  pick up  and over as high as you want to pick
or down as low as you want to pick
I tightened up the list  you can still pick any one not picked  by ranges of .1

we are 22 hours into this day that should be 132 blocks we made 140 so we are +6% for today  this has lowered bitcoinwisdom a bit

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (+8.96%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   71,745,418,788 (+8.96%)
Adjust time:   After 990 Blocks, About 6.3 days
Hashrate(?):   517,502,426 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.2 minutes
3 blocks: 27.4 minutes
6 blocks: 54.9 minutes

lastly picks are open for 174 more  blocks about 1 more day maybe 28 hours

[Kexkey]

+9.8 = Kexkey

Crazy diff increase!

[philipma1957]

picks have started
you can pick lower then me if you dare
      
-1.2  =      
-1.1  =  philipma1957
      
-0.0   =
    
 0.0   =      
 
+2.0 = BTCish  

+3.1 = RichBC
+3.2 = Tupsu
+3.3 = edonkey

+4.0 = mavericklm
+4.1 = Biodom
+4.2 = HerbPean
+4.3 = dukeneptun
+4.4
+4.5 = ingiltere

+4.8 = DanDan
+4.9
+5.0 = adaseb

+5.4 = tss
+5.5
+5.6 = vortexz

+5.9 = Mikestang
+6.0
+6.1 = cakir

+6.6 = wlefever
+6.7 = DanielRo

+7.0 = pandacoin

+7.4 = notlist3d
+7.5 = wpt1wpt1
+7.6
+7.7 = ezeminer
+7.8
+7.9 = togesix
+8.0
+8.1 = zebedee
+8.2 = Amph
+8.3
+8.4 = Questor
+8.5
+8.6 = flikflak
+8.7 = indiemax
+8.8 = Lituation
+8.9= VirosaGITS
+9.0
+9.1= GreatNorthData  you are very welcome.
+9.2 =Zz

+9.6 = jonnybravo0311
+9.7 = d57heinz
+9.8 = Kexkey

+11.2 = SwordsofFreedom

+12.2 = 64dimensions

and  pick up  and over as high as you want to pick
or down as low as you want to pick
I tightened up the list  you can still pick any one not picked  by ranges of .1

we are 22 hours into this day that should be 132 blocks we made 140 so we are +6% for today  this has lowered bitcoinwisdom a bit

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (+8.96%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   71,745,418,788 (+8.96%)
Adjust time:   After 990 Blocks, About 6.3 days
Hashrate(?):   517,502,426 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.2 minutes
3 blocks: 27.4 minutes
6 blocks: 54.9 minutes

lastly picks are open for 174 more  blocks about 1 more day maybe 28 hours

[Mikestang]

So this is shaping up to be the monster diff adjustment period that we've been predicting for the last several jumps.  I wonder if this is just a burn in test for a massive amount of hardware?  In which case we'll see it spike, then drop back down a bit, then gradually increase as the machines make their ways to their new owners.  Or are new facilities being brought online that no one is reporting?