Diff thread Nov 11 to Nov 24 Set up stage-picks are now closed!

[philipma1957]

http://www.coindesk.com/bitfury-completion-16nm-bitcoin-mining-asic/

Little reminder for all of you .  thinking it will level off lmao

hey don't be insulted  it is not about predicting that 92 diff is happening or that 150 diff will happen.

Both may happen down the road.

 you are writing like  92 bill diff  is happening in 1 day it is not.

And  72 bill diff is to happen in a day .


sept  4 diff was 56 bill

sept 4 price was 230

so 56 to 72 = 28%  diff

  235 to 325 = 38%  price jump

So if you stood pat with an s-5   from sept 4 until now  you had 2 ½ good mining months.

If you switched to S-7 in early sept  and sold your s-5's when price spiked to 490-510  you also whaled.

The sky has not fallen.   And diff will level off again

so let me get this straight. i wasnt saying the diff was where it was.. im working in 24 hour time frames and talking about what the current net hashrate is at the time i posted, which the swings we been having on the 24 hour isnt variance. but ok we agree to disagree.. but you tell me not to be insulted while you insult me.. how can i not be insulted...how about quit selling for bitmain as your opinions are obviously biased as hell.... but anyway im talking about the 24 hour time frame  if you look here you can see it moving in big ways.. but im done here you insulted me for the one and only time.. Good luck with your thread.  and by the looks of the list i think i have a good grip on whats going on.. just sorry that you all are on the philipma train with blinders on.  
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png
watch the blue line
Best Regards
d57heinz

you are in too small of a space is what I am saying.  and your writing style projects a small timeline  into a big one.

92 bill is not happening anytime soon.

Net Hashrate

664,821.06 TH/s  

and when the network gets that speed we will be at 92,874,428,825.17302000 diff

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png
Best Regards
d57heinz

Tell you what  that number won't be true

 92 bill  until end of Jan 2016 or later.

   If price stays stable by stable if price is under 375.

[adaseb]

Alright lets not argue. You are correct in saying you can't take the variance in difficulty especially in small time frames. I shouldn't of posted that 66% gain in difficulty taken 3 hours after the day started.

Currently for the day we are at 123 blocks and it should of been 99 block so . Today is looking again like a 24% day

[philipma1957]

Alright lets not argue. You are correct in saying you can't take the variance in difficulty especially in small time frames. I shouldn't of posted that 66% gain in difficulty taken 3 hours after the day started.

Currently for the day we are at 123 blocks and it should of been 99 block so . Today is looking again like a 24% day

yes i agree today looks bad. this entire adjustment looks bad. it looks to be over ten percent for sure.

i will also guess a second bad jump since even at 72 - 75 diff we have not caught up to the price gains we made since sept 4 .

maybe we don't stop until we reach 92 but 92 is still off on the horizon for now.

my next goal is review the avalon 6 and compare it to the s-7

[vortexz]

abandon ship! difficulty is going to explode !

[philipma1957]

abandon ship! difficulty is going to explode !

well it looks like it will keep moving up  and up.


it needs to be 78.68 to match the price jump we had since sept 4

235 to 325 = 1.3829


56.9 to 78.68 = 1.3829


so after tomorrow the diff would be close to even out.

of course we need to do numbers for the s-7 and the avalon 6 and winter.

  so  the 78.68 still seems too low .

@d57heinz  maybe I failed to understand your style of writing and projected a wrong interpretation of what you meant.

I think we both agree difficulty will continue to rise. We may disagree how fast or what it really should be.

[suchmoon]

A month ago we had:

$250 per coin
~60 billion diff

Now we have:

$320 per coin (28% increase)
soon ~73 billion diff (21% increase)

So in terms of mining revenue the change is still positive. Ironically though, the more outdated your gear the greater the impact has been (not accounting for higher density of newer equipment of course).

For example if you were spending $200 of each mined coin on electricity in October your net income was ~0.2 BTC or $50. Adjusted for price and difficulty next week it would be ~0.25 BTC or $80 (approx +25% and +60%).

If you we spending $50 of each mined coin on electricity in October your net income was ~0.8 BTC or $200. Adjusted for price and difficulty next week it would be ~0.81 BTC or $260  (approx +0% and +30%).

This won't last I think. Diff will catch up and pass the 28% due to the more efficient gear flooding the market. But we can still hope the halving will shake the price up again.

[adaseb]

A month ago we had:

$250 per coin
~60 billion diff

Now we have:

$320 per coin (28% increase)
soon ~73 billion diff (21% increase)

So in terms of mining revenue the change is still positive. Ironically though, the more outdated your gear the greater the impact has been (not accounting for higher density of newer equipment of course).

For example if you were spending $200 of each mined coin on electricity in October your net income was ~0.2 BTC or $50. Adjusted for price and difficulty next week it would be ~0.25 BTC or $80 (approx +25% and +60%).

If you we spending $50 of each mined coin on electricity in October your net income was ~0.8 BTC or $200. Adjusted for price and difficulty next week it would be ~0.81 BTC or $260  (approx +0% and +30%).

This won't last I think. Diff will catch up and pass the 28% due to the more efficient gear flooding the market. But we can still hope the halving will shake the price up again.

Yes I agree we are making more now then in the past but if the price doesn't keep rising then we will end up making less.

[suchmoon]

Yes I agree we are making more now then in the past but if the price doesn't keep rising then we will end up making less.

The other problem is that it's not so easy to upgrade now because hardware is so overpriced. 1+ BTC per TH/s - nearly the same as it was a year ago, I paid ~2.5 BTC for an S4 back then. The S7 (or the Avalon) has ~1/3 of the power consumption of the S4 but even with that in mind the end result still is: I'm going to mine less BTC per each BTC spent on hardware than I did a year ago, which means that hardware would need to last longer to ROI, which seems unlikely with faster rising diff and halving.

[notlist3d]

Yes I agree we are making more now then in the past but if the price doesn't keep rising then we will end up making less.

The other problem is that it's not so easy to upgrade now because hardware is so overpriced. 1+ BTC per TH/s - nearly the same as it was a year ago, I paid ~2.5 BTC for an S4 back then. The S7 (or the Avalon) has ~1/3 of the power consumption of the S4 but even with that in mind the end result still is: I'm going to mine less BTC per each BTC spent on hardware that I did a year ago, which means that hardware would need to last longer to ROI, which seems unlikely with faster rising diff and halving.

This is part of why I like keeping some of my holdings in gear.  It by far is not a sure thing, but I enjoy it.  And it's been good to me over the years.

But S4's looking back were a really good deal.  I mined with mine for a LONG time through summer even, they were part of reason I got a mining area.  But after all that mining they hold a amazing amount of their value still.  So those who had S4's (if decent electricity) have done well I think.  And selling it eventually is the cherry on-top.

[suchmoon]

Yes I agree we are making more now then in the past but if the price doesn't keep rising then we will end up making less.

The other problem is that it's not so easy to upgrade now because hardware is so overpriced. 1+ BTC per TH/s - nearly the same as it was a year ago, I paid ~2.5 BTC for an S4 back then. The S7 (or the Avalon) has ~1/3 of the power consumption of the S4 but even with that in mind the end result still is: I'm going to mine less BTC per each BTC spent on hardware that I did a year ago, which means that hardware would need to last longer to ROI, which seems unlikely with faster rising diff and halving.

This is part of why I like keeping some of my holdings in gear.  It by far is not a sure thing, but I enjoy it.  And it's been good to me over the years.

But S4's looking back were a really good deal.  I mined with mine for a LONG time through summer even, they were part of reason I got a mining area.  But after all that mining they hold a amazing amount of their value still.  So those who had S4's (if decent electricity) have done well I think.  And selling it eventually is the cherry on-top.

Yep. Also SP20 at $500 last December. I sold the last few just recently... for $500 each 

Somehow I doubt I'll get $1500 or 4 BTC or anything close to that for the S7 or the Avalon6 a year from now.

[philipma1957]

Yes I agree we are making more now then in the past but if the price doesn't keep rising then we will end up making less.

The other problem is that it's not so easy to upgrade now because hardware is so overpriced. 1+ BTC per TH/s - nearly the same as it was a year ago, I paid ~2.5 BTC for an S4 back then. The S7 (or the Avalon) has ~1/3 of the power consumption of the S4 but even with that in mind the end result still is: I'm going to mine less BTC per each BTC spent on hardware that I did a year ago, which means that hardware would need to last longer to ROI, which seems unlikely with faster rising diff and halving.

This is part of why I like keeping some of my holdings in gear.  It by far is not a sure thing, but I enjoy it.  And it's been good to me over the years.

But S4's looking back were a really good deal.  I mined with mine for a LONG time through summer even, they were part of reason I got a mining area.  But after all that mining they hold a amazing amount of their value still.  So those who had S4's (if decent electricity) have done well I think.  And selling it eventually is the cherry on-top.

Yep. Also SP20 at $500 last December. I sold the last few just recently... for $500 each  

Somehow I doubt I'll get $1500 or 4 BTC or anything close to that for the S7 or the Avalon6 a year from now.

Not sure about prices 1 year from now, but  looks like a make gear and sell like mad is going to be the builders move.

Growth is huge another really big day today.

Today will be the day the most hash was ever added.  We are going to push 180 blocks (maybe)  and add a lot more gear.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (+10.04%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   72,456,152,977 (+10.04%)
Adjust time:   After 207 Blocks, About 1.3 days
Hashrate(?):   560,095,703 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.1 minutes
3 blocks: 27.1 minutes
6 blocks: 54.3 minutes
Updated:   14:50 (4.5 minutes ago)

[adaseb]

I think the reason why gear is much more expensive now then a year ago is because a year ago price was CRASHING and difficulty was skyrocketing.

Its probably a safer bet buying an S7 now then it was buying an S2/S3/S4 last year right when they came out.

[philipma1957]

I think the reason why gear is much more expensive now then a year ago is because a year ago price was CRASHING and difficulty was skyrocketing.

Its probably a safer bet buying an S7 now then it was buying an S2/S3/S4 last year right when they came out.

yeah we had a price melt down  in 2014 

995 in Jan 2014
814 in Feb 2014
712 in Mar 2014
547 in Apr 2014
585 in May 2014
660 in Jun 2014
629 in Jul   2014
591 in Aug 2014
495 in Sep 2014
393 in Oct 2014
367 in Nov 2014 ------------pretty close to price now
377 in Dec 2014
270 in Jan 2015    but under 185 for a day or two

[alh]

My bet is that right now, the ASIC vendors (Bitmain, Avalon, etc) are looking at the halving and thinking that they will have a much harder time selling out gear leading up to that and some time afterwards. Something like:

"Make Hay while the Sun is shining"

Six months from now will be exciting (aka turbulent) times I think.

[adaseb]

Later on it ended up stabilizing but the day ended up being +15.7%

[philipma1957]

My bet is that right now, the ASIC vendors (Bitmain, Avalon, etc) are looking at the halving and thinking that they will have a much harder time selling out gear leading up to that and some time afterwards. Something like:

"Make Hay while the Sun is shining"

Six months from now will be exciting (aka turbulent) times I think.

I am thinking they have decided to sell sell sell sell sell sell and sell more.  If so this will be very interesting 6 months.

[philipma1957]

picks have started
you can pick lower then me if you dare
      
-1.2  =  lolxxx                  looks like I have a visitor!!    
-1.1  =  philipma1957
      
-0.0   =
    
 0.0   =      
 
+2.0 = BTCish  

+3.1 = RichBC
+3.2 = Tupsu
+3.3 = edonkey

+4.0 = mavericklm
+4.1 = Biodom
+4.2 = HerbPean
+4.3 = dukeneptun
+4.4
+4.5 = ingiltere

+4.8 = DanDan
+4.9
+5.0 = adaseb

+5.4 = tss
+5.5
+5.6 = vortexz

+5.9 = Mikestang
+6.0
+6.1 = cakir
+6.3 = Last of the V8s
+6.6 = wlefever
+6.7 = DanielRo

+7.0 = pandacoin

+7.4 = notlist3d
+7.5 = wpt1wpt1
+7.6
+7.7 = ezeminer
+7.8
+7.9 = togesix
+8.0 = EternalWingsofGod
+8.1 = zebedee
+8.2 = Amph
+8.3 = alh
+8.4 = Questor
+8.5
+8.6 = flikflak
+8.7 = indiemax
+8.8 = Lituation
+8.9= VirosaGITS
+9.0 = UfoRia
+9.1= GreatNorthData  you are very welcome.
+9.2 =Zz

+9.6 = jonnybravo0311
+9.7 = d57heinz 
+9.8 = Kexkey

+11.2 = SwordsofFreedom

+12.2 = 64dimensions



final pick list is above   a few numbers in contention


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+10.08%)
Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   72,487,079,597 (+10.08%)
Adjust time:   After 171 Blocks, About 1.1 days
Hashrate(?):   559,392,317 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.1 minutes
3 blocks: 27.2 minutes
6 blocks: 54.5 minutes
Updated:   19:50 (4.0 minutes ago)

[UfoRia]

Wow, this is going to be an interesting next couple of days...

[philipma1957]

okay day 12

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

11-11-2015   169 blocks  this is a plus 25   now the first 77 blocks were on the last adjustment  So  on a part day I guess +14

11-12-2015  158 blocks this is plus 14    total is +28
 
11-13-2015   161 blocks  this is plus 17 total is +45

11-14-2015   146 + 2                               +47

11-15-2015   156 is +12                           +59    

 11-16-2015  172 is +28                           +87

11-17-2015   146 is +2                             +89   and plus 2 looks nice

11-18-2015   156 is +12                           +101

11-19-2015   131 is -13                            +88  same drop about the same time last diff adj

11-20-2015   169 blocks or + 25               back up to a very big  113 over.

11-21-2015   178 blocks or + 35                   148 over more then 1 full day!  
  
11-22-2015   170 blocks + 26                          174 over


the last 3 days are the worst or best three days in a row for the last six months

we are 1864 blocks made should be 1690  which makes us  (+10.29%)


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty    says (+10.19%)
Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   72,558,347,171 (+10.19%)
Adjust time:   After 152 Blocks, About 23.0 hours
Hashrate(?):   555,068,286 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.1 minutes
3 blocks: 27.1 minutes
6 blocks: 54.3 minutes
Updated:   22:40 (4.5 minutes ago)


we may go to 11%  but on the 19th we did 131 blocks so maybe we drop to 9%   price is in the 320 area

[vortexz]

11% + for sure !