Bitcoin Forum

Simple extrapolation of the very steady exponential growth trend since January.

That also means we pass $50 by late March.

I'm not sure if we are geometric or exponential yet. Is the user base really growing, or are the current users doubling down?

Even though simple extrapolation works only until it stops working, you might be right. Let's wait and see.

Great prediction!
You surely have a point when you say that Bitcoin will hit 100 usd by April 31st.
As a matter of fact April has only 30 days..... duh!
 :o
This should give a pretty good indication about the level of "irrational exuberance" we joined so far.
Beware son.....

I was wondering who'd be the first to notice my little gimmick  ;)

Note: I assigned the prediction 20% confidence, meaning I have 80% confidence the price won't appreciate this rapidly - not very exuberant. It's just an interesting reference prediction to compare the actual results with to keep us sane if the price goes up even faster (probably that'd be a bubble), and if it conforms to the prediction people will freak out less than if I hadn't made this post.

I mostly just don't want to hear cries of "bubble" constantly as we climb what could be a gigantic wall of worry at what could be a breakneck, brain-destroying pace.

So you agree? The price will be $100 before the date will be April 31st?

Im guessing we will hit that before February 29th. Anyone taking bets?

(the first of which occurs in 2016 for anyone not paying attention, its a leap day)

100$ by 31st April would be crazy, but this is ridiculous...

He didn't specify which year would have Feb 29, so not betting :D

Chances are better we'll see single digits, I think.

Bad enough you dont realize what February 29th is, and then you didnt even see what you quoted lol.
I removed the color tags for you. Or try highlighting the quote.

you got me...  ::)

Single digits by April 31st - meaning never, right?

We remain on target  ;D

Still right on course.

If we hit $50 this week it'll be a bit early. My guess is next week, or possibly the week after.

https://i.imgur.com/3URzc3W.png

Ah, log charts. Can we see this on a log base-1000 chart, please?

Nice prediction. I agree with the idea that the rally will continue past $50 with a breakout in the near future (as I've talked about in my blog) however I think the line will become steeper and rise quicker after $50 than it has in the rally so far.

do you know what a logarithm is?

Based on that chart, price would reach $1,000 before year end.

I have a chart that says $100 by 2013-08-20, and $1000 by 2014-12-02

with each coin to rise in price over $100,000,000 each in about 5 years

yes we could expect some steady gains in the coming months  :D

I don't get it. Why has the price stalled? There seems to be only one whale creating the large walls and no competition. This isn't the stock market. There isn't going to be another cryptocurrency to wait for. There will be no QE for Bitcoin. I am really surprised that only one person seems to have locked the price down and there is nobody else with money that understands Bitcoin. Well, I for one will keep buying small amounts at this low price little by little. It really looks like Bitcoin will be the great wealth redistribution of the 21st Century.

Isn't there only 30 days in April?

We all got the joke. It's analogous to Zeno's Paradox. Since we'll never get to April 31st, Bitcoin will never go up in price.

Or whether Bitcoin reaches $100 or not, the statement will always be valid.

What exactly was wrong with that sentence? Do you only know what natural logarithm is?

It was going up even faster than exponential for a while (curving up even on a log chart), which suggests it was because present holders were doubling down, not solely from new users. Exponential growth is already insanely fast, so it shouldn't be puzzling if it "corrects" to the exponential trendline. 

Aah, graphs always nice.

Since there are a dozen topics on how high the price of BTC can go, I made a projection of BTC's price development in excel. The trouble with projections is...... that it is just that: projections. My sheet is full of assumptions and hand tweaking of numbers to make the graphs look nice. Having said so, let's spit out the outlines of this projection.

• exponential average annual growth factor between 1.6 and 3.5
• 2013 as the start of data (with $150,000 market cap)
• S-curve type price action (meaning faster growth in the beginning and slower at the end)
• correction in the S-curve to account for BTC inception in 2009 instead of 2013 (meaning: already in fast growth mode in 2013)
• 5% final market cap of the current $70-80 trillion (I don't think that is unrealistic)
• hitting $1,000: light green, $10,000: darker green, $100,000: even darker green, full market cap: green
• 4 scenarios ranging from cautious to aggressive

Of course, none of this is scientific; its make believe  8) Nonetheless, the better my assumptions are, the better insight of the possible price projection. Main assumption is, of course, that Bitcoin will survive all those years and will actively be developed further to accommodate trading to reach a 5% market cap.

Excel spouts out the following sheet:
https://i.imgur.com/iaGIIVg.png

The graphs that belong to the sheet:
https://i.imgur.com/mnqeFXY.png

The graphs are not that interesting. Price will reach some $180,000 in either scenario, the S-curve is obviously present in all of them (since unscientifically engineered by me) and details of our current period are lost in the small numbers until the big leap. The only thing interesting is the time frame, but that is clear from the sheet as well. Nevertheless, for the power-graph hungry people I included the graphs.

From the sheet, it appears that a slow scenario vs an aggressive scenario is 'only' 10 years. Nevertheless, if your goal is $100,000/BTC, then it makes a lot of difference whether we take the Android/Youtube/Fabecook route (very fast adaptation, 3-8 years) or the Intel/Phone/TV route ('normal' adaptation, 10-20 years).

The good news is that reaching $1,000 happens more or less at the same moment. In each scenario, the $1,000 mark is reached within the time frame 2016-2017. After that, the differences start to grow. While reaching $10,000 comes relatively fast in all scenario's, reaching $100,000 will take some time. Also in the aggressive scenario, the wait lasts until 2019. That is still 6 years away and 6 years is long in the Internet 2.0 age we're in.

What I take away from this calculation exercise:

• even with a 5% market cap target, the rewards over time look very promising if you get in now with one single BTC
• the real prize ($100,000/BTC) will take some time regardless of the scenario (so for those that only started in 2011 as wannabee millionaires: have patience...)
• reaching $1,000 is a breeze and will happen soon in either scenario
• and the final kicker: look at the aggressive scenario and think of an even more aggressive scenario......  :P :P :P
• therefore: buy and hold. Keep on buying at least until $1,000/BTC

The sky is the limit.

Excellent & Outstanding, +1

It's nice to see how intuitive decisions taken back in 2010 after reading for a week all things Bitcoin getting this kind of (admittedly make-belief) support a few years down the road.


Yep I mean this one.

Nice analysis!

One down like clockwork, one to go!

I have a bet that bitcoin won't reach US$100/btc anytime in 2013.  I have won 4 out of 4 bets involving bitcoins so far, and don't intend to lose this one.

The only way I can see it failing is Italy undergoing mandatory deposit confiscation like Cyprus is at the moment, and someone whispering sweet nothings about bitcoins and a stunning way to smuggle money out of the country to the masses.

100$ is less than double from where we are now. Given the volatility chances that we will hit it in 2013 are rather high. We can hit it in March or April of 2013 or even this week. You will lose this bet.

$1000 in 2013.

Being right 80% of the time is still good -- don't be too disheartened.

+1

That made me laugh ;D

A lot can happen in 9 months. Just look at the past 2 months.

It's also pretty cool that the market doesn't give a rat's ass about what your intentions are  ;D

Getting closer...

Man when I first posted this it looked crazy and people laughed but now it looks positively tame. Simple extrapolation of the exponential seems to be working uncannily well as a conservative estimate, although maybe this can be thought of more as a base for support, with anything like Cyprus just bumping it up to a new set point from which to continue at the same exponential pace.

No kidding, ahead of schedule by a month or so. (yes I know we haven't hit it... yet)

I wonder what the price will actually be on April 31st. Over $130?

$32 :D

I think he means that we will see 1mBTC = single digits = $1, $2, ...etc.  :D

If we continue this pace, between 200-300. And then it will crash.

I don't disagree - it has to cool off from this pace sometime or we'll be at insane (full mainstream adoption-level) prices by year end - but why those specific numbers?

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2013-01-01zeg2013-06-15ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv
 :o :o :o

Impressive.