Bitcoin Forum

If I chose to put an order down on a 60gh unit do you think I would get it too late to make any profits? Im tempted to buy one but I think I may be too far back in the queue.

Yes it isn't worth it.

Don't waste the cash....

In Jan Josh said "you order now, you get it in Feb"
In Feb Josh said "you order now, you get it in Mar"

It is march now current orders are up at about 20,000

A few dozen Avalons have hit the road, and already the difficulty is 4.2mill  PPS is down at 0.0000054374254214, which is down 20% from a couple of weeks ago.

Also BFL have gone completely quite, this was after the 'hot dream' less than a week ago of getting chips and them starting the 'bumping' process...

I actually wish I had gone with Avalon, when I saw it in Sep.....

After I start getting my pre-orders, I plan on purchasing more Singles. I consider it worth it, but I'm looking long-term.

It's a tough call, my guess is that current orders will arrive around 2 months after the first orders ship, which may be next week. The hope is that rising difficulty will go hand in hand with rising BTC price, but that is not a given. Even if it does, it's highly unlikely that BTC value will rise at the same rate. Current estimates point to anywhere between 500 and 750 th out there by July. BTC would need to be anywhere from $560-$840 per coin by then to keep the current profitability scale. Very unlikely, but if you told me BTC would soon be approaching $40 this time last month, I would not believe it.

Also, keep in mind that BFL has touted the ability to produce 400 devices a day in the very near future. At that rate you could probably order a device and receive it within a few days. What that also means is a serious dillution of existing and future rig profitability, and in my opinion, huge price drops. Avalon and ASICMiner may not be able to compete in a price war with BFL, but BFL may end up having one with themselves if sales start to slow.

In any case, you can't make money if you don't risk any. So you know what to do...(build a time machine and go back to 2010. Buy 100,000 btc for 100 bucks or so, travel to 2018 and sell them for $100,000,000)

It's impossible to say, the best bet is to wait and see what they pay out. Those who invested early with BF will never make back what they would have just holding btc. BF is so far behind now I expect it will take them 7 months to catch up to current orders. I think even that is optimistic. BF seems to be near some kind of time dilation field. When I retire I may move down there, even if my Doctor only gives me 4-6 weeks. That's almost a year in BF time.

I think both those #s are extremely optimistic.

With BFL, always, ALWAYS look at the glass half full...

Well who on earth is actually expecting a 6 day 100% ROI? Me personally, I'm looking for a 6-8 month ROI, which I consider to be quite standard in the past, considering the cost/return of GPUs and FPGAs, and is still completely obtainable wth BFL equipment, even at high difficulties. With a difficulty of 100Million, which is on the high side of your estimate at 700TH/s, you're still looking at less than a 5 month ROI. A network of 1000TH/s and difficulty of 140Million is still a 7 month ROI. What is there to complain about that?

Yes 6-8 months is perfectly acceptable in my opinion, I purchased my fpga singles with that assumption. Current buyers do have a few variables that need to be analyzed beforehand though. BTC value, delivery time, necessity of preorder with impending mass production, and future ASIC prices. All of that said, current BTC value, market trend, and network hashrate estimates appear to point to a safe investment. Looking at our short history, that could all change in a day.

At this point I think you should wait until they've demonstrated a functional shipping product. Their own chart indicates that they expect current(March) orders to ship in June and as we've seen time a time again BFL estimates are consistently overly optimistic.

https://i.imgur.com/cq6qYX8.png

Agreed on the waiting part, I have one early (first batch) unit, I will not part with any more untill I see a working unit (either by me or a trusted user here with pics)

jsut watch the payd trolls  who said yes  its worth it


and even post a bfl unoficial table of shiipping

after half a year of delays and not having one single  jelly even in existence even in there lab for there own testing  not  shipping or deliveries to speak off


dont waste ur time and money  at this stage in the game

DUDE ULL MAKE UR MONEY BACK

JUST WILL TAKE 2 - 4 YEARS

THATS ALL

indeed  bfl nothing  but  lies   3 weeks delays  for a 24 hours process like bunping

chips are now at packaing with as josh admited  already run intro problems

expect another  3 weeks delay

and 3 more steps  with and avarage of  3 weeks delay per step

and we only talkin about  the orders placed in june2012

if u order now u wont see a fl asic  til 2014  for sure

+1 Seems as if they having some serious engineering problems. I wonder if it's hardware, software or both. The thing that seems fishy to me as an engineer is, I design stuff everyday run it through calculations, simulations so on and so forth. When the design is complete and assembled it may require miner tweaking but it all works and there's never delays like these guys have. They are using the BTC community to fund there R&D not nice >:(

If BFL actually shipped 400 60 GH/s units per day, they would be adding 24TH/s to the network each day.  In 3 months, the network hashpower would be 2200 PH/s (plus all the other ASIC supplier shipments).

Your super SC would be generating less than 0.1 BTC per day.  And you can expect that ASIC suppliers would be dropping their prices so they could continue to sell hardware, further eroding your income over time.

Of course, BFL's track history makes it much more likely that they will struggle to ship 10 units / day.  In terms of placing a new order, that means you can expect delivery sometime after the next block reward halving.   ;D

Source? I seem to have missed this news and I've been keeping up to date with his posts and the "unofficial BFL news" twitter feed.


How do you know this? Someone I know who worked for an electronics company said it took between 6-10 weeks from the when the fab receives the ASIC design. He said the packaging process took between 1-2 weeks. This is for an established and experienced company in a good relationship with the fab. Admittedly though, he doesn't know much about the process but from where I stand right now, you've not mentioned your experience or research at all. He also did not mention bumping but I find it hard to believe this is a 24 hour process, especially when a fab has multiple customers.

So please, enlighten me on the manufacturing processes and send me a link to the news item I missed.

That's how BFL strings people along with fake schedules.

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/announcements/692-bfl-asic-status.html#post13172


Don't you love the "probably less" thrown in there just to give people hope when there's no way in hell it'll ever happen.

i couldnt of said it better  if u order today by the time u receive ur unit u will be making 0.01 btc a day
taking years=2-4 to recopup ur investment

BFL is an utter failure.

BFL customers should request a refund. This game has gone on long enough. 9 months???

insane.

Why do you insist on every single BFL customer getting a refund? You sound like a broken record, and I can't help but thinking you have some ulterior motive, or hidden agenda.

You're taking some very fancy sounding numbers, and making assumptions, but you're not looking at the whole context before you're jumping to conclusions.

400 SC Singles a day for the next 3 months means about 36,500 SC Singles. At $1300 a pop, you're really telling me that you expect BFL to take $47 Million USD in preorders, AND ship all of those units in the next 3 months? Ya, I don't think so, for either of those 2 accounts.

Kano reported seeing 90 Minirig cases ready to go.  That is $2.7M in orders by itself.  There are at least 50x (probably 100x) as many single orders out there, which brings us to about $10M in pre-orders.  Someone was on here reporting that he wanted to buy $300k in rigs as a new order last week.

Avalon did $1M in sales in 1 day.   $47 M isn't a very large number.

Good luck with your investment.

90 cases doesn't mean 90 MR pre-orders. Also, please show me where you can pinpoint the number of SC Single orders, and stop guessing (50x? 100x?).

That $300k order sale never happened, and I don't think most people have that sort of cash to invest.

Avalon did close to $1M in sales in 1 day, but then they stopped accepting orders. It's a totally different scenario, and does nothing to help us out here.

The closest thing I know of is This thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=89685.0), which is nowhere near complete.

Why do you support BFL at every single delay and let down?

How much are they paying you?

How much are you invested in BFL?

Why do you care?
How much are their competitors paying you? (disclaimer: not a real accusation; just trying to make a point)
How is that any of your business?

Let's ask more questions lol...divert more attention from the topic at hand: BFL is full of BS.

Smoothie, I've explained this to you before, over the past several months. I'm not happy with the delays. No one with BFL pre-orders is. Some people have asked for refunds. Some people continue to order from them. I am keeping my orders because I don't think they are a scam. I see the evidence and their track record and the current level of communication coming from them, and I don't think they are going to run away with my money. I "support" them cuz I'm sick of your negativity and whining in every single BFL thread there is on here, when it doesn't even affect you at all.

You: Thinks BFL is a scam.
Me: Thinks BFL will eventually deliver. 
You: Calls BFL liars. 
Me: Calls you a liar.
You: Trolls BFL forums for fun.
Me: Goes to BFL forums for information (but never posts).
You: Trolls BFL threads on BT.
Me: Stays out of Avalon and other ASIC threads.


Soo.... why are you questioning me again?

What, you don't believe Josh? He's promised to finish shipping all preorders in under 2 months.

http://forums.butterflylabs.com/pre-sales-questions/1084-if-i-order-now-when-will-i-get-my-order.html

That's my problem with BFL. It's not that I think they're a scam in the sense that they'll run off with the money, I think they're a scam for constantly lying about the situation. That estimate quoted above is TOTAL BS and never ever should have been released. Just like when Josh trolls here and suggests the bets against BFL shipping dates are "foolish" then those that bet against BFL win. Telling people in mid December they may receive their shipments before the end of the year was outright fraud and this crap is SOP for BFL. They're costing anyone that believes them $$$ with their dishonest business practices.

I agree with you on this one. According to a poll on BFL's website 90% are willing to wait 6-12 month to make ROI*)

But back to the OP:

He will not make ROI in 6 month. Nor in 12 month. Maybe in 24 month. But that's very risky, because his unit has to work 24/7 for two years. Image he lives outside the US and has an RMA in those two years (-> send unit back to US, wait, get it repaired, wait, get it shipped again, wait, troubles with custom). Not to mention the warranty that might have expired by then.

So for the TS it is very risky to order now.



------------
*) ROI is wrong in this context, I know. Should be "break even". But since most users use ROI I'll use it too.

A SC Single is $1330USD. At the current MtGox weighted average of $46.9USD/BTC, that's 28.36BTC. You think it'll take 2 straight years to mine 28BTC? You're talking about a difficulty of over 400 million for it to take that long.

I don't think 12 months is a difficult number. I'm not talking now, I'm talking when people actually get their BFL units. I've already seen screen shots of Avalon tracking numbers and they are on their way. Avalon's first batch will be in the hands of all their customers obviously before BFL even has a working prototype, so at that point it will probably take a year or so to make $1300 worth of BTC.

You didn't answer my question at all. For a BFL SC Single to break even in 24 months, you would need a difficulty of 400million, or a network of > 3Ph/s. 3000Th/s is 50,000 SC Singles, which at $1300 a pop is over $65 million USD in BFL pre-orders. Really? You think they have that many orders? I don't think BFL has that many pre orders. Hell, their entire batch of 100,000 chips (enough to cover all pre-orders) is only enough for 20% of that.

You were responding to Koolio when you asked that question, not me. I'll just add that you never included all other ASIC miners other then BFL that are out there. Isn't another company making their own and not selling but mining for themselves bringing huge mining power to the network?

Proof that time travel will forever remain science fiction  :)

I am just amazed that working ASICs are made in China first! Is this also proof that the decline of the West has begun?

Crazyates and SLok are so far up BFLs arses - they don't even remember when they last saw daylight!

Read the subject of this thread: "BFL worth it now?".

New customers will be at the very end of the BTC food chain.

* BFL will have delivered all their 75.000 chips (or more).
* Avalon has shipped it's 1st, 2nd, 3rd ... batch by then.
* New players - known, like Helveticoin, and unknowns - might have entered the market even before BFL latecomers received their miners.

It is highly dubious to lure customers to order from BFL now.

I don't know why you keep saying I'm "Up their arses", as I'm asking you for numbers. You're asking if it's worth it to buy a spot in BFL's que now, and I'm posting numbers. You're not doing anything to refute or argue those numbers, but instead resorting to name calling.

As you said, BFL has a run of ~75,000 chips. That's about 9,400 SC Singles. That means BFL will have shipped about 565Th/s. That's about a 20x difficulty. As I said before, you would need a 100x difficulty (400 million) to extend your break even point to 2 years.

Its a legitimate concern. Its possible that ASIC companies are paying people in these forums to promote their interests.

The problem with doing it at today's rates/diff is that in order for that to be accurate, BFL would have to be shipping units today (or already have shipped by today). You cant give a fair equation without looking at the fact that by the time BFL finally ships, the difficulty will be very high (due to avalons units, and single entity asics, and the increased gpu farms over the last few months).

You're basically asking a one sided question, and totally disregarding the fact that BFL has nothing, just to prove your point.

OMG did you even read my posts? Yes, I'm using today's BTC/USD rates, but i'm NOT using today's difficulty! This whole argument is over what difficulty will a SC Single no longer break even in a timely manner. And if you really wanted to nitpick over the use of current exchange rates, it actually works out in favor of my opinion, as the market has been in a continually upward trend. A year from now, there's a good chance the price will be higher than it is today, which shortens your break even point.

Also, how is my question "one sided" ? That's how arguments are won: I have an opinion, and I present facts to support my opinion. Do you have any numbers that counter my thesis, or are you just attempting to make fun of me with no grounds for doing so?

Whoa. Wasn't trying to make fun of you at all. Not sure how i came across that way in my posts. I was simply pointing out a fallacy within your equation, as you just did with mine.

Please explain that "fallacy" again. I might be a little thick-skulled, cuz I'm not getting your point.

People who will "make" back their initial investment quickly are those who ordered in the first month of pre-ordering.
most of them will turn around an order more equipment and they will keep doing this till they run out of space.

Most likely by what's been going on there will most likely be another one or two ASIC building companies around that will beat BFL into customer's hands. And by that time with all of Avalon units already delivered god only knows what the difficulty will be. We all know the BTC price isn't going to stay in the 40's for a very long time...it can't right? Once that drops it very well could take 2 full years to get your money back from one SC. 24 months to break even to me is not far fetched for a BFL unit, right?

dude if u get it before 2014

jsut mesage me i send u 10  btc

no joke


no way in hell

they dont have once single unit working in lab

they have like 1000th preopred

Not really worth it now. This is based on the latest news of problems with the chips power consumption and not achieving promised hashrate.

Inabality to provide video or a photo of BFL device hashing infront of joshes eyes makes some really steep concerns.

sure dude  jsut order  those who ordered on june 23 2012 didnt get shit yeat

i mean imagine placing and order now

u will not getit this year tahts for sure

and making a profit sure

if u runn it 4 years
and btc rises to 10000  i guess u will make a profit

other then that no chance in hell

900 Avalon units @ 68GH each=61.2TH

First batch BFL,5000 chips=625-8 chip boards=37.5TH

Second batch BFL,6000 chips=750-8 chip boards=45TH

Total Network Hashrate(approx)=61.2TH+37.5TH+45TH+35TH(before ASIC)=178.7TH

So,by July-September (my guess) 200TH:

60GH will earn 1.14 BTC per day or 34 BTC per month x exchange rate =  ???

@ 600TH=.38 BTC per day

Make up your own mind  :D

For me,yes its worth it  ;)

What about ASICMINER? Or would that not come into play for some reason?

Opps,don't hear much about them so I forgot,they'll have how much TH  ???

Edit:If they'll have about 20TH,then things don't change much,you'll note I rounded off at 200TH  ;)

IDK exactly maybe someone else could shed some light I see estimate figures nothing definite.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.0

Edit: ~6TH now with 12TH incriments until they top off at 50TH if I read correctly.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg1613133#msg1613133

If they ship you 2x 30GH/s units instead of 1x 60GH/s unit, and they still pull less power than an Avalon (combined), how does that make sense?

If they manage to redesing the device to cope with the extra heat and power draw I guess that would work.

The real problem is they need to use 2x the materials than originally planned to ship 60GH/s and that could mean serious economical problems for them. If they need 2x the materials than previously planned, shipping delays will grow even longer. Not meeting the promised 1GH/W makes their product less favorable to the current and upcoming competition. There might be some serious legal problems because of the continuing fraudulent advertising. Those problems add up and increase the possibility of no delivery aka bASIC.

Risk of failure rises with every missed delivery month and new problems to meet annouched specs.

Mine PPCoin with some FPGA's or Get yourself a kickass quad 7970 gaming rig and mine litecoin /novacoin when you are not playing. Keep the rest and buy bitcoin next drop to 70 or 80 and hold it.

ASICMINER states this week they'll start selling to the public sooner than anticipated. They've placed an order for 200 TH/s of hashing power in chips now. (On top of the 50 & 12 TH/s they currently have)