BFL worth it now?

[smoothie]

indeed  bfl nothing  but  lies   3 weeks delays  for a 24 hours process like bunping

How do you know this?  Someone I know who worked for an electronics company said it took between 6-10 weeks from the when the fab receives the ASIC design. He said the packaging process took between 1-2 weeks. This is for an established and experienced company in a good relationship with the fab.

That's how BFL strings people along with fake schedules.

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/announcements/692-bfl-asic-status.html#post13172

It should not take more than 24 hours to bump all our chips and get them to the packaging facility, where it will take another ~24 hours (probably less) to package them

Don't you love the "probably less" thrown in there just to give people hope when there's no way in hell it'll ever happen.

BFL is an utter failure.

BFL customers should request a refund. This game has gone on long enough. 9 months???

insane.

[crazyates]

BFL customers should request a refund.

Why do you insist on every single BFL customer getting a refund? You sound like a broken record, and I can't help but thinking you have some ulterior motive, or hidden agenda.

If BFL actually shipped 400 60 GH/s units per day, they would be adding 24TH/s to the network each day.  In 3 months, the network hashpower would be 2200 PH/s (plus all the other ASIC supplier shipments).

Your super SC would be generating less than 0.1 BTC per day.  And you can expect that ASIC suppliers would be dropping their prices so they could continue to sell hardware, further eroding your income over time.

You're taking some very fancy sounding numbers, and making assumptions, but you're not looking at the whole context before you're jumping to conclusions.

400 SC Singles a day for the next 3 months means about 36,500 SC Singles. At $1300 a pop, you're really telling me that you expect BFL to take $47 Million USD in preorders, AND ship all of those units in the next 3 months? Ya, I don't think so, for either of those 2 accounts.

[Entropy-uc]

If BFL actually shipped 400 60 GH/s units per day, they would be adding 24TH/s to the network each day.  In 3 months, the network hashpower would be 2200 TH/s (plus all the other ASIC supplier shipments).

Your super SC would be generating less than 0.1 BTC per day.  And you can expect that ASIC suppliers would be dropping their prices so they could continue to sell hardware, further eroding your income over time.

You're taking some very fancy sounding numbers, and making assumptions, but you're not looking at the whole context before you're jumping to conclusions.

400 SC Singles a day for the next 3 months means about 36,500 SC Singles. At $1300 a pop, you're really telling me that you expect BFL to take $47 Million USD in preorders, AND ship all of those units in the next 3 months? Ya, I don't think so, for either of those 2 accounts.

Kano reported seeing 90 Minirig cases ready to go.  That is $2.7M in orders by itself.  There are at least 50x (probably 100x) as many single orders out there, which brings us to about $10M in pre-orders.  Someone was on here reporting that he wanted to buy $300k in rigs as a new order last week.

Avalon did $1M in sales in 1 day.   $47 M isn't a very large number.

Good luck with your investment.

[crazyates]

Kano reported seeing 90 Minirig cases ready to go.  That is $2.7M in orders by itself.  There are at least 50x (probably 100x) as many single orders out there, which brings us to about $10M in pre-orders.  Someone was on here reporting that he wanted to buy $300k in rigs as a new order last week.

Avalon did $1M in sales in 1 day.   $47 M isn't a very large number.

Good luck with your investment.

90 cases doesn't mean 90 MR pre-orders. Also, please show me where you can pinpoint the number of SC Single orders, and stop guessing (50x? 100x?).

That $300k order sale never happened, and I don't think most people have that sort of cash to invest.

Avalon did close to $1M in sales in 1 day, but then they stopped accepting orders. It's a totally different scenario, and does nothing to help us out here.

The closest thing I know of is This thread, which is nowhere near complete.

[smoothie]

BFL customers should request a refund.

Why do you insist on every single BFL customer getting a refund? You sound like a broken record, and I can't help but thinking you have some ulterior motive, or hidden agenda.

If BFL actually shipped 400 60 GH/s units per day, they would be adding 24TH/s to the network each day.  In 3 months, the network hashpower would be 2200 PH/s (plus all the other ASIC supplier shipments).

Your super SC would be generating less than 0.1 BTC per day.  And you can expect that ASIC suppliers would be dropping their prices so they could continue to sell hardware, further eroding your income over time.

You're taking some very fancy sounding numbers, and making assumptions, but you're not looking at the whole context before you're jumping to conclusions.

400 SC Singles a day for the next 3 months means about 36,500 SC Singles. At $1300 a pop, you're really telling me that you expect BFL to take $47 Million USD in preorders, AND ship all of those units in the next 3 months? Ya, I don't think so, for either of those 2 accounts.

Why do you support BFL at every single delay and let down?

How much are they paying you?

How much are you invested in BFL?

[mokahless]

Why do you support BFL at every single delay and let down?

Why do you care?

How much are they paying you?

How much are their competitors paying you? (disclaimer: not a real accusation; just trying to make a point)

How much are you invested in BFL?

How is that any of your business?

[smoothie]

Why do you support BFL at every single delay and let down?

Why do you care?

How much are they paying you?

How much are their competitors paying you? (disclaimer: not a real accusation; just trying to make a point)

How much are you invested in BFL?

How is that any of your business?

Let's ask more questions lol...divert more attention from the topic at hand: BFL is full of BS.

[crazyates]

Why do you support BFL at every single delay and let down?

Why do you care?

How much are they paying you?

How much are their competitors paying you? (disclaimer: not a real accusation; just trying to make a point)

How much are you invested in BFL?

How is that any of your business?

Let's ask more questions lol...divert more attention from the topic at hand: BFL is full of BS.

Smoothie, I've explained this to you before, over the past several months. I'm not happy with the delays. No one with BFL pre-orders is. Some people have asked for refunds. Some people continue to order from them. I am keeping my orders because I don't think they are a scam. I see the evidence and their track record and the current level of communication coming from them, and I don't think they are going to run away with my money. I "support" them cuz I'm sick of your negativity and whining in every single BFL thread there is on here, when it doesn't even affect you at all.

You: Thinks BFL is a scam.
Me: Thinks BFL will eventually deliver. 
You: Calls BFL liars. 
Me: Calls you a liar.
You: Trolls BFL forums for fun.
Me: Goes to BFL forums for information (but never posts).
You: Trolls BFL threads on BT.
Me: Stays out of Avalon and other ASIC threads.


Soo.... why are you questioning me again?

[Syke]

400 SC Singles a day for the next 3 months means about 36,500 SC Singles. At $1300 a pop, you're really telling me that you expect BFL to take $47 Million USD in preorders, AND ship all of those units in the next 3 months? Ya, I don't think so, for either of those 2 accounts.

What, you don't believe Josh? He's promised to finish shipping all preorders in under 2 months.

http://forums.butterflylabs.com/pre-sales-questions/1084-if-i-order-now-when-will-i-get-my-order.html

The currently estimated shipping time frame if you were to order today is the end of April or Beginning of May.

[creativex]

400 SC Singles a day for the next 3 months means about 36,500 SC Singles. At $1300 a pop, you're really telling me that you expect BFL to take $47 Million USD in preorders, AND ship all of those units in the next 3 months? Ya, I don't think so, for either of those 2 accounts.

What, you don't believe Josh? He's promised to finish shipping all preorders in under 2 months.

http://forums.butterflylabs.com/pre-sales-questions/1084-if-i-order-now-when-will-i-get-my-order.html

The currently estimated shipping time frame if you were to order today is the end of April or Beginning of May.

That's my problem with BFL. It's not that I think they're a scam in the sense that they'll run off with the money, I think they're a scam for constantly lying about the situation. That estimate quoted above is TOTAL BS and never ever should have been released. Just like when Josh trolls here and suggests the bets against BFL shipping dates are "foolish" then those that bet against BFL win. Telling people in mid December they may receive their shipments before the end of the year was outright fraud and this crap is SOP for BFL. They're costing anyone that believes them $$$ with their dishonest business practices.

[Frizz23]

... Me personally, I'm looking for a 6-8 month ROI, which I consider to be quite standard in the past, ...

I agree with you on this one. According to a poll on BFL's website 90% are willing to wait 6-12 month to make ROI*)

But back to the OP:

If I chose to put an order down on a 60gh unit do you think I would get it too late to make any profits? Im tempted to buy one but I think I may be too far back in the queue.

He will not make ROI in 6 month. Nor in 12 month. Maybe in 24 month. But that's very risky, because his unit has to work 24/7 for two years. Image he lives outside the US and has an RMA in those two years (-> send unit back to US, wait, get it repaired, wait, get it shipped again, wait, troubles with custom). Not to mention the warranty that might have expired by then.

So for the TS it is very risky to order now.



------------
*) ROI is wrong in this context, I know. Should be "break even". But since most users use ROI I'll use it too.

[crazyates]

... Me personally, I'm looking for a 6-8 month ROI, which I consider to be quite standard in the past, ...

I agree with you on this one. According to a poll on BFL's website 90% are willing to wait 6-12 month to make ROI*)

But back to the OP:

If I chose to put an order down on a 60gh unit do you think I would get it too late to make any profits? Im tempted to buy one but I think I may be too far back in the queue.

He will not make ROI in 6 month. Nor in 12 month. Maybe in 24 month. But that's very risky, because his unit has to work 24/7 for two years. Image he lives outside the US and has an RMA in those two years (-> send unit back to US, wait, get it repaired, wait, get it shipped again, wait, troubles with custom). Not to mention the warranty that might have expired by then.

So for the TS it is very risky to order now.

------------
*) ROI is wrong in this context, I know. Should be "break even". But since most users use ROI I'll use it too.

A SC Single is $1330USD. At the current MtGox weighted average of $46.9USD/BTC, that's 28.36BTC. You think it'll take 2 straight years to mine 28BTC? You're talking about a difficulty of over 400 million for it to take that long.

[opentoe]

... Me personally, I'm looking for a 6-8 month ROI, which I consider to be quite standard in the past, ...

I agree with you on this one. According to a poll on BFL's website 90% are willing to wait 6-12 month to make ROI*)

But back to the OP:

If I chose to put an order down on a 60gh unit do you think I would get it too late to make any profits? Im tempted to buy one but I think I may be too far back in the queue.

He will not make ROI in 6 month. Nor in 12 month. Maybe in 24 month. But that's very risky, because his unit has to work 24/7 for two years. Image he lives outside the US and has an RMA in those two years (-> send unit back to US, wait, get it repaired, wait, get it shipped again, wait, troubles with custom). Not to mention the warranty that might have expired by then.

So for the TS it is very risky to order now.

------------
*) ROI is wrong in this context, I know. Should be "break even". But since most users use ROI I'll use it too.

A SC Single is $1330USD. At the current MtGox weighted average of $46.9USD/BTC, that's 28.36BTC. You think it'll take 2 straight years to mine 28BTC? You're talking about a difficulty of over 400 million for it to take that long.

I don't think 12 months is a difficult number. I'm not talking now, I'm talking when people actually get their BFL units. I've already seen screen shots of Avalon tracking numbers and they are on their way. Avalon's first batch will be in the hands of all their customers obviously before BFL even has a working prototype, so at that point it will probably take a year or so to make $1300 worth of BTC.

[crazyates]

... Me personally, I'm looking for a 6-8 month ROI, which I consider to be quite standard in the past, ...

I agree with you on this one. According to a poll on BFL's website 90% are willing to wait 6-12 month to make ROI*)

But back to the OP:

If I chose to put an order down on a 60gh unit do you think I would get it too late to make any profits? Im tempted to buy one but I think I may be too far back in the queue.

He will not make ROI in 6 month. Nor in 12 month. Maybe in 24 month. But that's very risky, because his unit has to work 24/7 for two years. Image he lives outside the US and has an RMA in those two years (-> send unit back to US, wait, get it repaired, wait, get it shipped again, wait, troubles with custom). Not to mention the warranty that might have expired by then.

So for the TS it is very risky to order now.

------------
*) ROI is wrong in this context, I know. Should be "break even". But since most users use ROI I'll use it too.

A SC Single is $1330USD. At the current MtGox weighted average of $46.9USD/BTC, that's 28.36BTC. You think it'll take 2 straight years to mine 28BTC? You're talking about a difficulty of over 400 million for it to take that long.

I don't think 12 months is a difficult number. I'm not talking now, I'm talking when people actually get their BFL units. I've already seen screen shots of Avalon tracking numbers and they are on their way. Avalon's first batch will be in the hands of all their customers obviously before BFL even has a working prototype, so at that point it will probably take a year or so to make $1300 worth of BTC.

You didn't answer my question at all. For a BFL SC Single to break even in 24 months, you would need a difficulty of 400million, or a network of > 3Ph/s. 3000Th/s is 50,000 SC Singles, which at $1300 a pop is over $65 million USD in BFL pre-orders. Really? You think they have that many orders? I don't think BFL has that many pre orders. Hell, their entire batch of 100,000 chips (enough to cover all pre-orders) is only enough for 20% of that.

[opentoe]

... Me personally, I'm looking for a 6-8 month ROI, which I consider to be quite standard in the past, ...

I agree with you on this one. According to a poll on BFL's website 90% are willing to wait 6-12 month to make ROI*)

But back to the OP:

If I chose to put an order down on a 60gh unit do you think I would get it too late to make any profits? Im tempted to buy one but I think I may be too far back in the queue.

He will not make ROI in 6 month. Nor in 12 month. Maybe in 24 month. But that's very risky, because his unit has to work 24/7 for two years. Image he lives outside the US and has an RMA in those two years (-> send unit back to US, wait, get it repaired, wait, get it shipped again, wait, troubles with custom). Not to mention the warranty that might have expired by then.

So for the TS it is very risky to order now.

------------
*) ROI is wrong in this context, I know. Should be "break even". But since most users use ROI I'll use it too.

A SC Single is $1330USD. At the current MtGox weighted average of $46.9USD/BTC, that's 28.36BTC. You think it'll take 2 straight years to mine 28BTC? You're talking about a difficulty of over 400 million for it to take that long.

I don't think 12 months is a difficult number. I'm not talking now, I'm talking when people actually get their BFL units. I've already seen screen shots of Avalon tracking numbers and they are on their way. Avalon's first batch will be in the hands of all their customers obviously before BFL even has a working prototype, so at that point it will probably take a year or so to make $1300 worth of BTC.

You didn't answer my question at all. For a BFL SC Single to break even in 24 months, you would need a difficulty of 400million, or a network of > 3Ph/s. 3000Th/s is 50,000 SC Singles, which at $1300 a pop is over $65 million USD in BFL pre-orders. Really? You think they have that many orders? I don't think BFL has that many pre orders. Hell, their entire batch of 100,000 chips (enough to cover all pre-orders) is only enough for 20% of that.

You were responding to Koolio when you asked that question, not me. I'll just add that you never included all other ASIC miners other then BFL that are out there. Isn't another company making their own and not selling but mining for themselves bringing huge mining power to the network?

[solex]

In any case, you can't make money if you don't risk any. So you know what to do...(build a time machine and go back to 2010. Buy 100,000 btc for 100 bucks or so, travel to 2018 and sell them for $100,000,000)

Proof that time travel will forever remain science fiction  

I am just amazed that working ASICs are made in China first! Is this also proof that the decline of the West has begun?

[Frizz23]

A SC Single is $1330USD. At the current MtGox weighted average of $46.9USD/BTC, that's 28.36BTC. You think it'll take 2 straight years to mine 28BTC? You're talking about a difficulty of over 400 million for it to take that long.

Crazyates and SLok are so far up BFLs arses - they don't even remember when they last saw daylight!

Read the subject of this thread: "BFL worth it now?".

New customers will be at the very end of the BTC food chain.

* BFL will have delivered all their 75.000 chips (or more).
* Avalon has shipped it's 1st, 2nd, 3rd ... batch by then.
* New players - known, like Helveticoin, and unknowns - might have entered the market even before BFL latecomers received their miners.

It is highly dubious to lure customers to order from BFL now.

[crazyates]

A SC Single is $1330USD. At the current MtGox weighted average of $46.9USD/BTC, that's 28.36BTC. You think it'll take 2 straight years to mine 28BTC? You're talking about a difficulty of over 400 million for it to take that long.

Crazyates and SLok are so far up BFLs arses - they don't even remember when they last saw daylight!

Read the subject of this thread: "BFL worth it now?".

New customers will be at the very end of the BTC food chain.

* BFL will have delivered all their 75.000 chips (or more).
* Avalon has shipped it's 1st, 2nd, 3rd ... batch by then.
* New players - known, like Helveticoin, and unknowns - might have entered the market even before BFL latecomers received their miners.

It is highly dubious to lure customers to order from BFL now.

I don't know why you keep saying I'm "Up their arses", as I'm asking you for numbers. You're asking if it's worth it to buy a spot in BFL's que now, and I'm posting numbers. You're not doing anything to refute or argue those numbers, but instead resorting to name calling.

As you said, BFL has a run of ~75,000 chips. That's about 9,400 SC Singles. That means BFL will have shipped about 565Th/s. That's about a 20x difficulty. As I said before, you would need a 100x difficulty (400 million) to extend your break even point to 2 years.

[bonker]

Why do you support BFL at every single delay and let down?

Why do you care?

How much are they paying you?

How much are their competitors paying you? (disclaimer: not a real accusation; just trying to make a point)

How much are you invested in BFL?

How is that any of your business?

Let's ask more questions lol...divert more attention from the topic at hand: BFL is full of BS.

Smoothie, I've explained this to you before, over the past several months. I'm not happy with the delays. No one with BFL pre-orders is. Some people have asked for refunds. Some people continue to order from them. I am keeping my orders because I don't think they are a scam. I see the evidence and their track record and the current level of communication coming from them, and I don't think they are going to run away with my money. I "support" them cuz I'm sick of your negativity and whining in every single BFL thread there is on here, when it doesn't even affect you at all.

You: Thinks BFL is a scam.
Me: Thinks BFL will eventually deliver. 
You: Calls BFL liars. 
Me: Calls you a liar.
You: Trolls BFL forums for fun.
Me: Goes to BFL forums for information (but never posts).
You: Trolls BFL threads on BT.
Me: Stays out of Avalon and other ASIC threads.


Soo.... why are you questioning me again?

Its a legitimate concern. Its possible that ASIC companies are paying people in these forums to promote their interests.

[Rawted]

... Me personally, I'm looking for a 6-8 month ROI, which I consider to be quite standard in the past, ...

I agree with you on this one. According to a poll on BFL's website 90% are willing to wait 6-12 month to make ROI*)

But back to the OP:

If I chose to put an order down on a 60gh unit do you think I would get it too late to make any profits? Im tempted to buy one but I think I may be too far back in the queue.

He will not make ROI in 6 month. Nor in 12 month. Maybe in 24 month. But that's very risky, because his unit has to work 24/7 for two years. Image he lives outside the US and has an RMA in those two years (-> send unit back to US, wait, get it repaired, wait, get it shipped again, wait, troubles with custom). Not to mention the warranty that might have expired by then.

So for the TS it is very risky to order now.

------------
*) ROI is wrong in this context, I know. Should be "break even". But since most users use ROI I'll use it too.

A SC Single is $1330USD. At the current MtGox weighted average of $46.9USD/BTC, that's 28.36BTC. You think it'll take 2 straight years to mine 28BTC? You're talking about a difficulty of over 400 million for it to take that long.

I don't think 12 months is a difficult number. I'm not talking now, I'm talking when people actually get their BFL units. I've already seen screen shots of Avalon tracking numbers and they are on their way. Avalon's first batch will be in the hands of all their customers obviously before BFL even has a working prototype, so at that point it will probably take a year or so to make $1300 worth of BTC.

You didn't answer my question at all. For a BFL SC Single to break even in 24 months, you would need a difficulty of 400million, or a network of > 3Ph/s. 3000Th/s is 50,000 SC Singles, which at $1300 a pop is over $65 million USD in BFL pre-orders. Really? You think they have that many orders? I don't think BFL has that many pre orders. Hell, their entire batch of 100,000 chips (enough to cover all pre-orders) is only enough for 20% of that.

The problem with doing it at today's rates/diff is that in order for that to be accurate, BFL would have to be shipping units today (or already have shipped by today). You cant give a fair equation without looking at the fact that by the time BFL finally ships, the difficulty will be very high (due to avalons units, and single entity asics, and the increased gpu farms over the last few months).

You're basically asking a one sided question, and totally disregarding the fact that BFL has nothing, just to prove your point.