BFL worth it now?

[crazyates]

... Me personally, I'm looking for a 6-8 month ROI, which I consider to be quite standard in the past, ...

I agree with you on this one. According to a poll on BFL's website 90% are willing to wait 6-12 month to make ROI*)

But back to the OP:

If I chose to put an order down on a 60gh unit do you think I would get it too late to make any profits? Im tempted to buy one but I think I may be too far back in the queue.

He will not make ROI in 6 month. Nor in 12 month. Maybe in 24 month. But that's very risky, because his unit has to work 24/7 for two years. Image he lives outside the US and has an RMA in those two years (-> send unit back to US, wait, get it repaired, wait, get it shipped again, wait, troubles with custom). Not to mention the warranty that might have expired by then.

So for the TS it is very risky to order now.

------------
*) ROI is wrong in this context, I know. Should be "break even". But since most users use ROI I'll use it too.

A SC Single is $1330USD. At the current MtGox weighted average of $46.9USD/BTC, that's 28.36BTC. You think it'll take 2 straight years to mine 28BTC? You're talking about a difficulty of over 400 million for it to take that long.

I don't think 12 months is a difficult number. I'm not talking now, I'm talking when people actually get their BFL units. I've already seen screen shots of Avalon tracking numbers and they are on their way. Avalon's first batch will be in the hands of all their customers obviously before BFL even has a working prototype, so at that point it will probably take a year or so to make $1300 worth of BTC.

You didn't answer my question at all. For a BFL SC Single to break even in 24 months, you would need a difficulty of 400million, or a network of > 3Ph/s. 3000Th/s is 50,000 SC Singles, which at $1300 a pop is over $65 million USD in BFL pre-orders. Really? You think they have that many orders? I don't think BFL has that many pre orders. Hell, their entire batch of 100,000 chips (enough to cover all pre-orders) is only enough for 20% of that.

The problem with doing it at today's rates/diff is that in order for that to be accurate, BFL would have to be shipping units today (or already have shipped by today). You cant give a fair equation without looking at the fact that by the time BFL finally ships, the difficulty will be very high (due to avalons units, and single entity asics, and the increased gpu farms over the last few months).

You're basically asking a one sided question, and totally disregarding the fact that BFL has nothing, just to prove your point.

OMG did you even read my posts? Yes, I'm using today's BTC/USD rates, but i'm NOT using today's difficulty! This whole argument is over what difficulty will a SC Single no longer break even in a timely manner. And if you really wanted to nitpick over the use of current exchange rates, it actually works out in favor of my opinion, as the market has been in a continually upward trend. A year from now, there's a good chance the price will be higher than it is today, which shortens your break even point.

Also, how is my question "one sided" ? That's how arguments are won: I have an opinion, and I present facts to support my opinion. Do you have any numbers that counter my thesis, or are you just attempting to make fun of me with no grounds for doing so?

[Rawted]

Whoa. Wasn't trying to make fun of you at all. Not sure how i came across that way in my posts. I was simply pointing out a fallacy within your equation, as you just did with mine.

[crazyates]

Whoa. Wasn't trying to make fun of you at all. Not sure how i came across that way in my posts. I was simply pointing out a fallacy within your equation, as you just did with mine.

Please explain that "fallacy" again. I might be a little thick-skulled, cuz I'm not getting your point.

[CanaryInTheMine]

If I chose to put an order down on a 60gh unit do you think I would get it too late to make any profits? Im tempted to buy one but I think I may be too far back in the queue.

People who will "make" back their initial investment quickly are those who ordered in the first month of pre-ordering.
most of them will turn around an order more equipment and they will keep doing this till they run out of space.

[opentoe]

Most likely by what's been going on there will most likely be another one or two ASIC building companies around that will beat BFL into customer's hands. And by that time with all of Avalon units already delivered god only knows what the difficulty will be. We all know the BTC price isn't going to stay in the 40's for a very long time...it can't right? Once that drops it very well could take 2 full years to get your money back from one SC. 24 months to break even to me is not far fetched for a BFL unit, right?

[NEO2012]

If I chose to put an order down on a 60gh unit do you think I would get it too late to make any profits? Im tempted to buy one but I think I may be too far back in the queue.

dude if u get it before 2014

jsut mesage me i send u 10  btc

no joke


no way in hell

they dont have once single unit working in lab

they have like 1000th preopred

[BBQKorv]

Not really worth it now. This is based on the latest news of problems with the chips power consumption and not achieving promised hashrate.

Inabality to provide video or a photo of BFL device hashing infront of joshes eyes makes some really steep concerns.

[NEO2012]

If I chose to put an order down on a 60gh unit do you think I would get it too late to make any profits? Im tempted to buy one but I think I may be too far back in the queue.

sure dude  jsut order  those who ordered on june 23 2012 didnt get shit yeat

i mean imagine placing and order now

u will not getit this year tahts for sure

and making a profit sure

if u runn it 4 years
and btc rises to 10000  i guess u will make a profit

other then that no chance in hell

[Unacceptable]

900 Avalon units @ 68GH each=61.2TH

First batch BFL,5000 chips=625-8 chip boards=37.5TH

Second batch BFL,6000 chips=750-8 chip boards=45TH

Total Network Hashrate(approx)=61.2TH+37.5TH+45TH+35TH(before ASIC)=178.7TH

So,by July-September (my guess) 200TH:

60GH will earn 1.14 BTC per day or 34 BTC per month x exchange rate =  

@ 600TH=.38 BTC per day

Make up your own mind  

For me,yes its worth it  

[jedunnigan]

900 Avalon units @ 68GH each=61.2TH

First batch BFL,5000 chips=625-8 chip boards=37.5TH

Second batch BFL,6000 chips=750-8 chip boards=45TH

Total Network Hashrate(approx)=61.2TH+37.5TH+45TH+35TH(before ASIC)=178.7TH

So,by July-September (my guess) 200TH:

60GH will earn 1.14 BTC per day or 34 BTC per month x exchange rate = 

Make up your own mind 

For me,yes its worth it 

What about ASICMINER? Or would that not come into play for some reason?

[Unacceptable]

900 Avalon units @ 68GH each=61.2TH

First batch BFL,5000 chips=625-8 chip boards=37.5TH

Second batch BFL,6000 chips=750-8 chip boards=45TH

Total Network Hashrate(approx)=61.2TH+37.5TH+45TH+35TH(before ASIC)=178.7TH

So,by July-September (my guess) 200TH:

60GH will earn 1.14 BTC per day or 34 BTC per month x exchange rate =  

@ 600TH=.38 BTC per day

Make up your own mind  

For me,yes its worth it  

What about ASICMINER? Or would that not come into play for some reason?

Opps,don't hear much about them so I forgot,they'll have how much TH  

Edit:If they'll have about 20TH,then things don't change much,you'll note I rounded off at 200TH  

[jedunnigan]

900 Avalon units @ 68GH each=61.2TH

First batch BFL,5000 chips=625-8 chip boards=37.5TH

Second batch BFL,6000 chips=750-8 chip boards=45TH

Total Network Hashrate(approx)=61.2TH+37.5TH+45TH+35TH(before ASIC)=178.7TH

So,by July-September (my guess) 200TH:

60GH will earn 1.14 BTC per day or 34 BTC per month x exchange rate =  

@ 600TH=.38 BTC per day

Make up your own mind  

For me,yes its worth it  

What about ASICMINER? Or would that not come into play for some reason?

Opps,don't hear much about them so I forgot,they'll have how much TH  

IDK exactly maybe someone else could shed some light I see estimate figures nothing definite.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.0

Edit: ~6TH now with 12TH incriments until they top off at 50TH if I read correctly.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg1613133#msg1613133

[crazyates]

Not really worth it now. This is based on the latest news of problems with the chips power consumption and not achieving promised hashrate.

If they ship you 2x 30GH/s units instead of 1x 60GH/s unit, and they still pull less power than an Avalon (combined), how does that make sense?

[BBQKorv]

Not really worth it now. This is based on the latest news of problems with the chips power consumption and not achieving promised hashrate.

If they ship you 2x 30GH/s units instead of 1x 60GH/s unit, and they still pull less power than an Avalon (combined), how does that make sense?

If they manage to redesing the device to cope with the extra heat and power draw I guess that would work.

The real problem is they need to use 2x the materials than originally planned to ship 60GH/s and that could mean serious economical problems for them. If they need 2x the materials than previously planned, shipping delays will grow even longer. Not meeting the promised 1GH/W makes their product less favorable to the current and upcoming competition. There might be some serious legal problems because of the continuing fraudulent advertising. Those problems add up and increase the possibility of no delivery aka bASIC.

Risk of failure rises with every missed delivery month and new problems to meet annouched specs.

[Bicknellski]

Mine PPCoin with some FPGA's or Get yourself a kickass quad 7970 gaming rig and mine litecoin /novacoin when you are not playing. Keep the rest and buy bitcoin next drop to 70 or 80 and hold it.

[Xendrios]

900 Avalon units @ 68GH each=61.2TH

First batch BFL,5000 chips=625-8 chip boards=37.5TH

Second batch BFL,6000 chips=750-8 chip boards=45TH

Total Network Hashrate(approx)=61.2TH+37.5TH+45TH+35TH(before ASIC)=178.7TH

So,by July-September (my guess) 200TH:

60GH will earn 1.14 BTC per day or 34 BTC per month x exchange rate =  

@ 600TH=.38 BTC per day

Make up your own mind  

For me,yes its worth it  

What about ASICMINER? Or would that not come into play for some reason?

Opps,don't hear much about them so I forgot,they'll have how much TH  

IDK exactly maybe someone else could shed some light I see estimate figures nothing definite.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.0

Edit: ~6TH now with 12TH incriments until they top off at 50TH if I read correctly.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg1613133#msg1613133

ASICMINER states this week they'll start selling to the public sooner than anticipated. They've placed an order for 200 TH/s of hashing power in chips now. (On top of the 50 & 12 TH/s they currently have)