Bitcoin Forum

XMR needs a public poll. The question's exact wording is:

What do you believe is the price (BTC/XMR) which fulfills that it is equally probable that the actual_price be less or more than price. Select the cohort that includes price.

.0165

0.005-0.008  I can't vote because my rank is too low to vote.

Crosslinking the Speculation thread. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=753252.new)

After 26 voters, the consensus (average of the votes) is 0.049. Compared to the current price, 0.015, the voters strongly believe that the rise will continue.

We have a history of August spikes and then sliding lower.  

December lows are a norm, too - with a Spring breakout.

I think 0.0064 will be our low point and may be where we end the year. But anywhere up to 0.01 is possible.

I will plump for 0.0075

Anything above 0.0064 will be wonderful for me.  

Edit - all subject to BTC not going way below current range (if it's way above I won't care).

I think it will become the second strongest altcoin (following ether).

I'll see at least 0,04 ($20-$25) coming up.


btw. can't vote in the poll!?

The voters in bitcoin talk are almost always wrong... it's sad to see the highest 2 choices being the majority, because now we know for sure it won't happen. Everyone has hype googles on now.

Use the same poll again as soon as the first round of dumps start and the top vote will be 0.004 or less


What do YOU think the price will be by Dec 2016 OP?






Because no one cares about a newbie vote

I myself think there is a more than 50% possibility that we take a breather, so that the year end price is lower than the current price. We raised from 0.004 so recently that it is still a realistic possibility to revisit. Going below does not seem realistic in my view. Based on this reasoning, I voted 0.011-0.016.

The voting scale is constructed so that there are 10 choices, and they are in a logarithmic scale (each cohort is 41% higher than previous). The midpoint price today was selected as the midpoint.

Even if I believe the rise to have a somewhat lower probability than the decline, I strongly encourage buy/hold. This is because of the Monero's explosive nature and its long term prospects: if the price rises now, it can go very high in a short time. But even if it goes down - nothing bad really happens because it will rise back, just as it did so many times in the last 2 years.

It was 0.004 before people realized it may be the primary coin used in DNM... I'm hoping a price above 0.01 stays for the additional influx of money the DNM brings and because of the new money that came in because of the attention.

I agree it will need to take a breather or retrace a bit, but I hope it doesn't go back below 0.01.... it sucks to be a bag holder and wait for another rise. Don't wanna be waiting for a year, especially if BTC starts pumping again

Your account is 1 day(!) older than mine. Elitist cunt.

Wow  :D  It was a global restriction. I am sorry.

0.005-0.008 for me. it's gonna settle way higher than where it started but this craziness never lasts. it may get a second wave of pumping before the year's end in which case all bets are off.

After a mighty 50 votes, the result is as follows:

25% believe that the price is at least 0.064
50% believe that the price is at least 0.042
75% believe that the price is at least 0.022
90% believe that the price is at least 0.009
95% believe that the price is at least 0.006


The votes are transformed to a cumulative table above. If the voting interest continues, I will post updates of the changes! :)

this is during the heat of one of the biggest pumps of the year. of course you can't buy coins at this price level now. just in the same way you couldn't get etc or eth a short while back for nearly double the price. everything has cool spells and they last a whole lot longer than the mania.

I am not a mod here but please do not use rude language. Thanks.

My take is that the highest probability is a above 0.064 for XMR/XBT, my second choice with a very significantly lower probability but not zero, is below 0.004 XMR/XBT. The middle levels are actually by far the least likely in my mind.

If one looks at github and follows Monero development there are significant development improvements in the pipeline that are close to completion anyone of which could easily lead to a 4x or 5x rise in the XMR/XBT rate. If one add to this that the recent price rise and trading volume could lead to one or more of the major fiat to crypto exchanges listing Monero, this alone would make 0.064 or higher the most probable.

The second most probable option is that some previously unforeseen bug, attack etc., causes a disruption of the Monero network. which could cause the XMR/XBT rate to fall below 0.004.

A good example of what can happen is Ethereum; however in the case of Monero the rise could actually be even more sharp since in the case of Monero this is caused by very solid fundamentals that that have been slowly built up over a period more than two years. This is then followed by the market suddenly "discovering" the fundamental value of Monero and releasing the built up energy in a sudden and violent upward thrust.

Edit 1: There is no "insider" information here. It is all publicly available to anyone who cares to look. A very good indication of this for example is https://www.coingecko.com/en (https://www.coingecko.com/en) which currently lists Monero in 4th place ahead of Ripple and closing in on Litecoin.

Edit 2: What is currently happening with Monero is in my mind a classic example the value of doing one's own research on the market fundamentals and taking a long term view, as opposed to trying to day trade the market technicals.

0.023-0.032, think the price will contract a bit first and later stabilise at around 0.25 after some volatility and a sucession of ATH's, taking some of the market cap of DASH out with it.

I actually doubt that Dash is going to have much impact here. Dash has actually held up very well in the face of the recent rise in Monero, especially considering that Dash itself had a very significant upward run. The valuation rise in Monero could simply occur by Monero taking a significant part of the overall increase in the valuation of crypto currency. This is especially the case since Bitcoin is prevented from growing by the 1 MB blocksize limit and Monero is not. Interestingly Ethereum also did not have this blocksize limitation to growth.

Lets see what happens. I think DASH will take a knock if XMR increases to a significant level and becomes the dominant anonymous coin. I'd be happier if both increase of course =)

I voted 0.011-0.016 and if this is the case that's pretty good. If simplify the truth a bot and assume the maximum XMR is 21M like BTC this range means that XBT is worth only 62.5 tot 90.9 times XMR. That's a very very high relative valuation!

Now i am curious wher the price will be on December 31 yeeeaaahhhh  ;D :o

I'd like AG-parity...

my model: my central estimate for 2017 is $25.  my estimate of current value is $5.80.  after the initial rise, there will be a retracement.  after the retracement, the central tendency is to hyperbolically converge to the central estimate for 2017.  using the endpoints of 1 Oct 2016 and 1 July 2017, i interpolated to estimate $13.68 for 1 Jan 2017, almost precisely an LTC mcap, taking uniform priors for BTC and LTC.

Ag may be lower, but it won't be that low.  Late spring?  Maybe.

Ok I removed it   ;)

I think the poll should be in XMR/USD. Now you are asking to speculate on the price of monero and the price of bitcoin at Dec-31-2016. Both are moving targets, while one moving target has proven to be already quite a challenge.

I for example speculate the USD price of bitcoin to slowly rise, while monero stabilizing at the current USD level. Luckily I don't trade.

I am around for long enough to know what that means  ;).

With any currency pair you're looking at moving targets. It's not like USD is static.

Anyhow, unless you are specifically speculating in another price series, efficient markets imply that the current price is the best uninformed estimate of the future price (or NPV thereof, in the presence of beneficiary cash flows).

I think we have another pump coming to .02btc. Everyone is on the sidelines now hoping for it to fall so they can buy in for the next increase, which is a self fulfilling prophecy.  There is a precedent of altcoins going higher (eth) so everyone knows there is room for growth. Once we hit old etherum highs it'll probably stagnate until news comes out,

1.5 bm USD?  That's a stretch, on speculation.  Not hyped enough, like ETH was.

After 82 votes, there have been less new "0.064+ votes", and more votes in the 0.016-0.064 range.

The average is 0.040, which is still higher than the current price, 0.014.

I went for 0.011-0.016
Monero may have quite a grow in the next months, but the history tells that winter use to be bad for Monero price, so I expect it to fall back by December....

Based on observation of two winters? It's not a snow to be cheap on winter. The weather is cloudy here, how it can affect price?

The end of the year dip was something I factored in too.

Not that the weather that affects things, but taking profits at year end and other factors do.  December lows and Feb breakouts have happened so far.  Plus BTC is oversold IMHO and due a little run up before the end of year.  These factors and the huge rise we have had, means we could easily retrace (against BTC if not USD) over the next few months.  I actually voted for .0075 (yes, very pessimistic) but I would be FAR happier to see it hit .02 and higher, of course.

95% of people voted higher than me - but polls can often see the crowd being hopelessly optimistic and very wrong.

I think Spring 17 will see it much higher than December 16 - but all this is based on gut feeling only.  Sure, laugh at me if we're out in the Ort belt with $25 + per Monero in December by all means.

But I won't see it, I will be on a beach somewhere celebrating the best Christmas ever ;)

Your guess is...?

80% are voting higher than the current value. This is a reason for the opposite to happen because people tend to invest according to their perceptions, and if everyone's perception is "UP", then everyone has already bought, and will not be there to cause the momentum towards "UP".

Is that... past the Kuiper belt, and on its way to the Oort cloud ?

Thank you kurious for making it clear.
sammy007, I stand corrected. For me December is in winter. Maybe you are an aussie and then you may not have understood what I meant.  :P


I also hope that Monero will stay low some more time, since I'd like to buys some more. Not really to go to a beach for Christmas, but at least for a city break outside Europe :)

When will the voting close?

Any speculation for Sept 1?


It seems like the price is being suppressed around 015 - 016, from going either up or down. Until Sept 1 everyone is riding the hype train so there is probably a lot of resistance on pushing the price down. Some whales might also think it can easily surpass 02 and beyond so they may be pressuring the price from rising further at the moment.

Come Sept 1... if we dont see much XMR volume in Alpha/Oasis then I'm guessing we are likely to see an epic dump.

how will you check xmr-volume in alpha/oasis?

best regards

I think Monero is gonna see a significant correction as Z-cash goes on-stream. My guess is ~ $5. At a pinch, I will go with a 0.006 to 0.008 BTC range for year end.

I have no idea lol, I thought the sites could determine the # of transactions happening in XMR? If they announce anything remotely disappointing about XMR not meeting the # of transactions or utility as assumed then I can certainly see the start of a dip. When a coin pumps 500%+ it only needs one excuse to come tumbling down

There is positive attitude in crypto last 2 months in all coins , even the one that dont bring anything new, gained a lot. This positive attitude happened after BTC did not ATH after halving and ETH fiasko.
Monero gained 420% in last 2 weeks and 700% in last 2 months
Monero would be worth $10 sooner or latter without nay news about dark markets.  I personally dont expect that there will be any disappointment , but expect it will be widely used there.
But still the price of Monero will still swing up and down a lot in upcoming weeks.

You do not need any news to support Monero in the days of dark net markets. All you need is junkies buying their stuff with XMR + vendors holding at least a part of their Moneros without any news of volumes. News are for the speculators - I am glad Monero is taking some steps away from specualtion stage into the stage of real world adaption.
Sure some nervous speculators with tight margin longs might be dumping on Sept 1st but I encourage to look a little more ahead than just stare at one date. The minimum block reward is only a few steps ahead of us, sure some adaption for sure will take place from DNM, then also normal people will adapt Monero as their personal currency.

I like your even tone, and consider your views quite temperate and sensible.  Respect.


I like your long-term emphasis, and consider your views quite temperate and sensible.  Respect.  Which surprises me, frankly.  So happy that your troll days are gone!

Only 9 more votes to go and we can analyse the situation after 100 votes!

My best guess would be around .006 - .008. It will be stable there for a long time after the hype. No solid reasoning behind the guess except maybe from what I saw happen from other cryptocoins that have gone up a lot in price. They always go down and become stable at slightly lower prices but at a higher price before the pump.

@rpietila. A sample of 100 votes from bitcointalk will not be a good measure of what might statistically happen. There is the argument that the sample is tainted knowing that this is bitcointalk. :)

It is a fun exercise but not to be taken seriously especially by the naive people who lurk here.

I don't know about the others, but I have repeatedly said it is a contrarian indicator. People sincerely believe what they vote on, but they have already acted according to their belief, ie. if someone is bullish, it does not mean he will buy, but he has already bought. Also being bearish does not mean in the process of selling, but waiting to buy lower.

Therefore, the potential for continued price appreciation exists when most are bearish and vote for low prices. When people vote for high prices, they are wishing for them but already bought.

A sample of 100 is of course relatively small but it depends on what you are looking for and what you do with the data.

Given the nature of the forum and simplicity of the poll, its difficult to create any controls or breakdowns of the data but I disagree that the results are tainted by the fact this is BTCtalk - the results are going to be more informed than if you had run the questionnaire on a gardening forum or in a supermarket.

Knowing Risto he has knowledge of or access to statistical tools and wouldn't simply draw conclusions from the raw data but run analysis such as GLMs or PCAs if he really wanted to utilise the findings.

Remembering Bitcoin in 2010, we can rise higher without meaningful pullbacks also. My personal belief is not that this is impossible, but that it is not the most probable scenario. To elaborate, I see the rest of the year as a die game where you pay a coin and receive something like:

4 coins on a "6"
2 coins on a "5"
0.5 coins on a "4"
0.5 coins on a "3"
0.5 coins on a "2"
0.5 coins on a "1"

It is possible to be same time +EV (positive expected value) and higher probability to lose than to win  ;)

Or like ethereum did, it could keep climbing and climbing higher. You never know... :-\ :-\

There is the General Aminorex Law which states that the dump is on its way when Aminorex mentions term "bullish" attached to a certain coin and when he recommends to buy coffee beans, short oil, long cauliflower and wheat futures, there is a time to buy Monero actually.

However, this law can be applied on speculator games only. It doesn't necessarily work in current Monero environment that much anymore since there is also other things to do with Monero than tossing dies and throwing coins to  bids on Polo.

I just checked in to this thread to see how it was playing out - and I stand corrected... A belated 'thank you' is due to you.   Oort cloud, I hope - but most of my early pessimism is thus far playing out.  So far we have dipped way lower than 90% of people voted for initially.

Having predicted 0.0075, I of course hoped it would not happen and was also terrified of going to far below my target stash in XMR.  So I sold too little near the top.  If I had been bolder and followed my own advice, I would be a richer and happier man.

Such is life...

I now think much below 0.01 will see huge support, and if we go below it will not be for long.   Possibly below 0.009 briefly - but the fundamentals are too good to not snap back up sharply.  There has been no final capitulation yet.  The slide is a smooth down slope.  My instinct says one last hard spike down will sort it and the bottom will have been found.  

BTC moves are the variable that means I will simply wait and see. That which I have not sold so far I am keeping and hodling.  My low ball buys are in awaiting any moves that may surprise us.  GUI will hopefully help, but any significant (to 0.02 or more) rise may have to wait until at least February now.

That is my best guess. Based on bananas.

At least the quantum foam is decisively past us with 10k BTC and more daily volumes.

70-90$ in december.

What? Why do you think this could actually happens?

More like $5-$10 in december

There is still lots of time till December.
Less then a month passed from when this pool was created nd i am sure peoples expectations changed dramatically.

3 months are quite some time left.

I agree we are seemingly 'out of the woods' in terms of a crash to sub 0.007-level disaster - and there is certainly proven support at 0.01, as I had expected.

The road up is not as easy as a simple snap back to over 0.02 though, IMO.   

Financial market uncertainties make the 'stable-looking' BTC look increasingly attractive as a hedge on currency fluctuation - I speak as a Brit who has seen his currency flash crash overnight to terrifyingly levels, way below where it was pre-Brexit and is grateful that his BTC is denominated in USD. Every cent down adds a very nice amount to my (crypto) wealth.  So for me, being in BTC, or a currency denominated in BTC is a boon.

I am sure I am not alone.  Which is why he road ahead is positive for crypto, but rocky.  BTC will quite possibly spike up - I would not be surprised to see a decent run prior to Christmas - not to ATH, but over 800 looks possible.  I think we will much more than simply keep our value in USD terms, but massive increases against BTC to our ATH or more (in BTC terms) will be very unlikely if this happens.

Even if it does not - I doubt any new ATH type run will come before Spring.

Short term profit hunters are saving liquidity for ZCASH, ICONOMI and recently ETH.
I tend to agree with your analysis.
Buying XMR at <$7 probably was a bargain though.

After the recent events about the exit scam news I speculate that Monero will go back to 400k to 600k satoshis. The pumpers and the traders have already made their money when they took advantage of the volatility. Now it is on its way down and that might also be played by the same people to make money again by short selling.

You still cant read?

One dark market closed doors. It was small one. Apparently that happens quite often on dark markets. Far most  trades there was made in BTC and those BTC was stolen. Where do you expect BTC will drop because of this exit scam?