XMR Monero price poll - what is XMR/BTC rate by Dec-31-2016 ??

[wachtwoord]

I voted 0.011-0.016 and if this is the case that's pretty good. If simplify the truth a bot and assume the maximum XMR is 21M like BTC this range means that XBT is worth only 62.5 tot 90.9 times XMR. That's a very very high relative valuation!

[elrippo]

Now i am curious wher the price will be on December 31 yeeeaaahhhh 

[obit33]

I'd like AG-parity...

[aminorex]

my model: my central estimate for 2017 is $25.  my estimate of current value is $5.80.  after the initial rise, there will be a retracement.  after the retracement, the central tendency is to hyperbolically converge to the central estimate for 2017.  using the endpoints of 1 Oct 2016 and 1 July 2017, i interpolated to estimate $13.68 for 1 Jan 2017, almost precisely an LTC mcap, taking uniform priors for BTC and LTC.

[aminorex]

I'd like AG-parity...

Ag may be lower, but it won't be that low.  Late spring?  Maybe.

[Dafar]

I am not a mod here but please do not use rude language. Thanks.

Ok I removed it   

[bitebits]

I think the poll should be in XMR/USD. Now you are asking to speculate on the price of monero and the price of bitcoin at Dec-31-2016. Both are moving targets, while one moving target has proven to be already quite a challenge.

I for example speculate the USD price of bitcoin to slowly rise, while monero stabilizing at the current USD level. Luckily I don't trade.

After 26 voters, the consensus (average of the votes) is 0.049. Compared to the current price, 0.015, the voters strongly believe that the rise will continue.

I am around for long enough to know what that means  .

[wachtwoord]

I think the poll should be in XMR/USD. Now you are asking to speculate on the price of monero and the price of bitcoin at Dec-31-2016. Both are moving targets, while one moving target has proven to be already quite a challenge.

I for example speculate the USD price of bitcoin to slowly rise, while monero stabilizing at the current USD level. Luckily I don't trade.

After 26 voters, the consensus (average of the votes) is 0.049. Compared to the current price, 0.015, the voters strongly believe that the rise will continue.

I am around for long enough to know what that means  .

With any currency pair you're looking at moving targets. It's not like USD is static.

[aminorex]

Anyhow, unless you are specifically speculating in another price series, efficient markets imply that the current price is the best uninformed estimate of the future price (or NPV thereof, in the presence of beneficiary cash flows).

[bitowl]

I think we have another pump coming to .02btc. Everyone is on the sidelines now hoping for it to fall so they can buy in for the next increase, which is a self fulfilling prophecy.  There is a precedent of altcoins going higher (eth) so everyone knows there is room for growth. Once we hit old etherum highs it'll probably stagnate until news comes out,

[aminorex]

I think we have another pump coming to .02btc. Everyone is on the sidelines now hoping for it to fall so they can buy in for the next increase, which is a self fulfilling prophecy.  There is a precedent of altcoins going higher (eth) so everyone knows there is room for growth. Once we hit old etherum highs it'll probably stagnate until news comes out,

1.5 bm USD?  That's a stretch, on speculation.  Not hyped enough, like ETH was.

[rpietila]

After 26 voters, the consensus (average of the votes) is 0.049. Compared to the current price, 0.015, the voters strongly believe that the rise will continue.

After 82 votes, there have been less new "0.064+ votes", and more votes in the 0.016-0.064 range.

The average is 0.040, which is still higher than the current price, 0.014.

[Mike8]

I went for 0.011-0.016
Monero may have quite a grow in the next months, but the history tells that winter use to be bad for Monero price, so I expect it to fall back by December....

[sammy007]

I went for 0.011-0.016
Monero may have quite a grow in the next months, but the history tells that winter use to be bad for Monero price, so I expect it to fall back by December....

Based on observation of two winters? It's not a snow to be cheap on winter. The weather is cloudy here, how it can affect price?

[kurious]

I went for 0.011-0.016
Monero may have quite a grow in the next months, but the history tells that winter use to be bad for Monero price, so I expect it to fall back by December....

Based on observation of two winters? It's not a snow to be cheap on winter. The weather is cloudy here, how it can affect price?

The end of the year dip was something I factored in too.

Not that the weather that affects things, but taking profits at year end and other factors do.  December lows and Feb breakouts have happened so far.  Plus BTC is oversold IMHO and due a little run up before the end of year.  These factors and the huge rise we have had, means we could easily retrace (against BTC if not USD) over the next few months.  I actually voted for .0075 (yes, very pessimistic) but I would be FAR happier to see it hit .02 and higher, of course.

95% of people voted higher than me - but polls can often see the crowd being hopelessly optimistic and very wrong.

I think Spring 17 will see it much higher than December 16 - but all this is based on gut feeling only.  Sure, laugh at me if we're out in the Ort belt with $25 + per Monero in December by all means.

But I won't see it, I will be on a beach somewhere celebrating the best Christmas ever

[kurious]

I went for 0.011-0.016
Monero may have quite a grow in the next months, but the history tells that winter use to be bad for Monero price, so I expect it to fall back by December....

Based on observation of two winters? It's not a snow to be cheap on winter. The weather is cloudy here, how it can affect price?

Your guess is...?

[rpietila]

80% are voting higher than the current value. This is a reason for the opposite to happen because people tend to invest according to their perceptions, and if everyone's perception is "UP", then everyone has already bought, and will not be there to cause the momentum towards "UP".

[MoneroMooo]

Sure, laugh at me if we're out in the Ort belt with $25 + per Monero in December by all means.

Is that... past the Kuiper belt, and on its way to the Oort cloud ?

[Mike8]

I went for 0.011-0.016
Monero may have quite a grow in the next months, but the history tells that winter use to be bad for Monero price, so I expect it to fall back by December....

Based on observation of two winters? It's not a snow to be cheap on winter. The weather is cloudy here, how it can affect price?

The end of the year dip was something I factored in too.

Not that the weather that affects things, but taking profits at year end and other factors do.  December lows and Feb breakouts have happened so far.  Plus BTC is oversold IMHO and due a little run up before the end of year.  These factors and the huge rise we have had, means we could easily retrace (against BTC if not USD) over the next few months.  I actually voted for .0075 (yes, very pessimistic) but I would be FAR happier to see it hit .02 and higher, of course.

Thank you kurious for making it clear.
sammy007, I stand corrected. For me December is in winter. Maybe you are an aussie and then you may not have understood what I meant. 

95% of people voted higher than me - but polls can often see the crowd being hopelessly optimistic and very wrong.

I think Spring 17 will see it much higher than December 16 - but all this is based on gut feeling only.  Sure, laugh at me if we're out in the Ort belt with $25 + per Monero in December by all means.

But I won't see it, I will be on a beach somewhere celebrating the best Christmas ever

I also hope that Monero will stay low some more time, since I'd like to buys some more. Not really to go to a beach for Christmas, but at least for a city break outside Europe

[Febo]

When will the voting close?