XMR Monero price poll - what is XMR/BTC rate by Dec-31-2016 ??

[rpietila]

XMR needs a public poll. The question's exact wording is:

What do you believe is the price (BTC/XMR) which fulfills that it is equally probable that the actual_price be less or more than price. Select the cohort that includes price.

[smokeyfish]

.0165

[trilingualme]

0.005-0.008  I can't vote because my rank is too low to vote.

[rpietila]

Crosslinking the Speculation thread.

[rpietila]

After 26 voters, the consensus (average of the votes) is 0.049. Compared to the current price, 0.015, the voters strongly believe that the rise will continue.

[kurious]

We have a history of August spikes and then sliding lower.  

December lows are a norm, too - with a Spring breakout.

I think 0.0064 will be our low point and may be where we end the year. But anywhere up to 0.01 is possible.

I will plump for 0.0075

Anything above 0.0064 will be wonderful for me.  

Edit - all subject to BTC not going way below current range (if it's way above I won't care).

[OrangeP]

I think it will become the second strongest altcoin (following ether).

I'll see at least 0,04 ($20-$25) coming up.


btw. can't vote in the poll!?

[Dafar]

After 26 voters, the consensus (average of the votes) is 0.049. Compared to the current price, 0.015, the voters strongly believe that the rise will continue.

The voters in bitcoin talk are almost always wrong... it's sad to see the highest 2 choices being the majority, because now we know for sure it won't happen. Everyone has hype googles on now.

Use the same poll again as soon as the first round of dumps start and the top vote will be 0.004 or less


What do YOU think the price will be by Dec 2016 OP?

btw. can't vote in the poll!?

Because no one cares about a newbie vote

[rpietila]

I myself think there is a more than 50% possibility that we take a breather, so that the year end price is lower than the current price. We raised from 0.004 so recently that it is still a realistic possibility to revisit. Going below does not seem realistic in my view. Based on this reasoning, I voted 0.011-0.016.

The voting scale is constructed so that there are 10 choices, and they are in a logarithmic scale (each cohort is 41% higher than previous). The midpoint price today was selected as the midpoint.

Even if I believe the rise to have a somewhat lower probability than the decline, I strongly encourage buy/hold. This is because of the Monero's explosive nature and its long term prospects: if the price rises now, it can go very high in a short time. But even if it goes down - nothing bad really happens because it will rise back, just as it did so many times in the last 2 years.

[Dafar]

I myself think there is a more than 50% possibility that we take a breather, so that the year end price is lower than the current price. We raised from 0.004 so recently that it is still a realistic possibility to revisit. Going below does not seem realistic in my view. Based on this reasoning, I voted 0.011-0.016.

The voting scale is constructed so that there are 10 choices, and they are in a logarithmic scale (each cohort is 41% higher than previous). The midpoint price today was selected as the midpoint.

Even if I believe the rise to have a somewhat lower probability than the decline, I strongly encourage buy/hold. This is because of the Monero's explosive nature and its long term prospects: if the price rises now, it can go very high in a short time. But even if it goes down - nothing bad really happens because it will rise back, just as it did so many times in the last 2 years.

It was 0.004 before people realized it may be the primary coin used in DNM... I'm hoping a price above 0.01 stays for the additional influx of money the DNM brings and because of the new money that came in because of the attention.

I agree it will need to take a breather or retrace a bit, but I hope it doesn't go back below 0.01.... it sucks to be a bag holder and wait for another rise. Don't wanna be waiting for a year, especially if BTC starts pumping again

[OrangeP]

After 26 voters, the consensus (average of the votes) is 0.049. Compared to the current price, 0.015, the voters strongly believe that the rise will continue.

The voters in bitcoin talk are almost always wrong... it's sad to see the highest 2 choices being the majority, because now we know for sure it won't happen. Everyone has hype googles on now.

Use the same poll again as soon as the first round of dumps start and the top vote will be 0.004 or less


What do YOU think the price will be by Dec 2016 OP?

btw. can't vote in the poll!?

Because no one cares about a newbie vote

Your account is 1 day(!) older than mine. Elitist cunt.

[rpietila]

Your account is 1 day(!) older than mine. Elitist cunt.

Wow    It was a global restriction. I am sorry.

[European Central Bank]

0.005-0.008 for me. it's gonna settle way higher than where it started but this craziness never lasts. it may get a second wave of pumping before the year's end in which case all bets are off.

[rpietila]

After a mighty 50 votes, the result is as follows:

25% believe that the price is at least 0.064
50% believe that the price is at least 0.042
75% believe that the price is at least 0.022
90% believe that the price is at least 0.009
95% believe that the price is at least 0.006


The votes are transformed to a cumulative table above. If the voting interest continues, I will post updates of the changes!

[European Central Bank]

too many wanting to buy at this range, not enough coins, ain't gonna happen

would be really glad to be wrong this time tho.

this is during the heat of one of the biggest pumps of the year. of course you can't buy coins at this price level now. just in the same way you couldn't get etc or eth a short while back for nearly double the price. everything has cool spells and they last a whole lot longer than the mania.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Your account is 1 day(!) older than mine. Elitist cunt.

I'd break your fucking jaw if you said that to my face, bitch

I am not a mod here but please do not use rude language. Thanks.

[ArticMine]

My take is that the highest probability is a above 0.064 for XMR/XBT, my second choice with a very significantly lower probability but not zero, is below 0.004 XMR/XBT. The middle levels are actually by far the least likely in my mind.

If one looks at github and follows Monero development there are significant development improvements in the pipeline that are close to completion anyone of which could easily lead to a 4x or 5x rise in the XMR/XBT rate. If one add to this that the recent price rise and trading volume could lead to one or more of the major fiat to crypto exchanges listing Monero, this alone would make 0.064 or higher the most probable.

The second most probable option is that some previously unforeseen bug, attack etc., causes a disruption of the Monero network. which could cause the XMR/XBT rate to fall below 0.004.

A good example of what can happen is Ethereum; however in the case of Monero the rise could actually be even more sharp since in the case of Monero this is caused by very solid fundamentals that that have been slowly built up over a period more than two years. This is then followed by the market suddenly "discovering" the fundamental value of Monero and releasing the built up energy in a sudden and violent upward thrust.

Edit 1: There is no "insider" information here. It is all publicly available to anyone who cares to look. A very good indication of this for example is https://www.coingecko.com/en which currently lists Monero in 4th place ahead of Ripple and closing in on Litecoin.

Edit 2: What is currently happening with Monero is in my mind a classic example the value of doing one's own research on the market fundamentals and taking a long term view, as opposed to trying to day trade the market technicals.

[starmman]

0.023-0.032, think the price will contract a bit first and later stabilise at around 0.25 after some volatility and a sucession of ATH's, taking some of the market cap of DASH out with it.

[ArticMine]

0.023-0.032, think the price will contract a bit first and later stabilise at around 0.25 after some volatility and a sucession of ATH's, taking some of the market cap of DASH out with it.

I actually doubt that Dash is going to have much impact here. Dash has actually held up very well in the face of the recent rise in Monero, especially considering that Dash itself had a very significant upward run. The valuation rise in Monero could simply occur by Monero taking a significant part of the overall increase in the valuation of crypto currency. This is especially the case since Bitcoin is prevented from growing by the 1 MB blocksize limit and Monero is not. Interestingly Ethereum also did not have this blocksize limitation to growth.

[starmman]

0.023-0.032, think the price will contract a bit first and later stabilise at around 0.25 after some volatility and a sucession of ATH's, taking some of the market cap of DASH out with it.

I actually doubt that Dash is going to have much impact here. Dash has actually held up very well in the face of the recent rise in Monero, especially considering that Dash itself had a very significant upward run. The valuation rise in Monero could simply occur by Monero taking a significant part of the overall increase in the valuation of crypto currency. This is especially the case since Bitcoin is prevented from growing by the 1 MB blocksize limit and Monero is not. Interestingly Ethereum also did not have this blocksize limitation to growth.

Lets see what happens. I think DASH will take a knock if XMR increases to a significant level and becomes the dominant anonymous coin. I'd be happier if both increase of course =)