Bitcoin Forum

Hi guys!  Here is where I will post my thoughts and speculations on each altcoin that I would consider profitable to go long or go short.

Why am I doing this?  Simple, to motivate me to do more research on the movement of altcoins coupled with (maybe) the corresponding news that comes with it on a daily basis. 

I would appreciate it for others to participate with their matching analysis and their questions.  I would also like to warn you that I'm not an expert trader and all I post here is from the point of view of a fellow ordinary member of this forum.

Thanks!

Possible buy signal for ETH/BTC

https://i.imgur.com/gyJ0KBM.png

A little over a month of sideways action, ETH interest seems to start picking up again.  Now I have no idea how successful Devcon2 is but we could judge it by the number of attendees and then compare that to Devcon1.  If the number of attendees is clearly way more than last year then Devcon2 would be considered a success.  So if someone knows the numbers, feel free to post.

In my opinion it's good entry is at .0220 - .0225 and then set your stoploss at .020 - .0205.  I'd get in now while the volatility is still low and avoid any big swings in price.

FYI, I tried to short this around a couple of weeks ago but I covered my short as it looked like a bad idea.

To Buy or Not to Buy

https://i.imgur.com/xOmpbzr.png

I have recently noticed the Waves mini pump and I'm starting to question if this is just the start of something more or is the pump over...?

What made me interested to speculate and think about maybe trading it is because the pump went and broke its monthly high.  That's usually a sign of a break out and I usually trade break outs.  The problem is it fell a little bit bigger than expected and that usually gives out the sign that it's a fake out.  Note:  It usually gives out a sign that it's just a fake out, but I've seen other coins trend really high even if they looked like fake outs at first.

Please post your thoughts and reactions.

looks like a joint

An increase in price is a breakout if the price rises and stays high for at least a month. But a trader can't wait that long before joining, so it's best to get in and watch carefully when to get out (if need be).

DASH/BTC:  Really Time to Go Short?

Dash is showing signs of a drop incoming.  Obviously the weakening of the price movement is a big sign but the real sign for me is coupled with a fading volume.  Notice the volume from the date of the peak of the uptrend to the date today.  It usually means the whales and pumpers are now out and did that during the peak and the days that came after it.  Be also careful of bull traps as these tend to happen when a cryptocurrency is falling.  Remember the saying 'it cannot go up all the way in a straight line'?  The reverse is also true.

https://i.imgur.com/Ie7HyCZ.png

XMR/BTC:  Is the Current Trend Over?

https://i.imgur.com/8Pob6mJ.png

Well it looks like the current uptrend might be over for now.  Like anything gravity affects it and pulls it down only to be ready for another run up.  It doesn't matter if it's a stock, a commodity or a currency, it just happens.  The bottom line is there will always be trends and there always will be volatility.  The good news is that's where you can make your profit as traders (or aspiring traders).

In XMR's case, it might be a good idea to try and profit at both sides of the trend.  Putting in a small short position to hedge your long position (if you're a super long term, hardcore XMR holder) is a good idea to reduce the volatility of your portfolio in times when it's going down.  Imo, if it can go that fast going up, the same could happen going down.  So hedging might not be such a bad idea.

If you're just a pure trader trying to earn some BTC, then now is a good time to put in a short position imo.  But as always, be careful and don't listen to any trading advice given by random guy from the internet.  ;D

Fading volume means consolidation

In downtrend you don't need big volumes to show their validity ...

Dash has been consolidating (it may still break downwards) and Monero just broke a support on which it bounced 4/5 times.

We've seen better TA

Or it could also mean that the current trend is over because the driver (or drivers) of the pump has left, leaving a headless horse.


Yup, I will be the first to admit that.  But to my defense all those lines and indicators shown by some here in the forum don't work most of the time either.  I'd rather go for 'less is more' and avoid getting distracted.

Good point made there, at the end it's just playing with probabilities of something happening, that's why it's important to assume as a trader that you are always wrong and keep being agnostic.

Best of luck with your trades.

TA does not really work on small markets like the altcoin market. I have tried many times using TA in Poloniex but failed many times. The markets are really unpredictable and I always lose money trading coins in short term. Would you mind sharing some of your tips in TA?

That's absolutly not true. Thanks to TA you can make money with the shittest coin on poloniex  ;)

Imho, it all comes down to style and what works for you.  If day trading doesn't work for you, why not try a longer term approach like swing trading.  But whatever you do, never ever buy and hold.  That is just plain laziness and blindly being hopeful and wishful that your favorite coin will rise huge.  It's also the fast road to bagholder's land.

FCT/BTC:  The Same Pattern Over and Over

https://i.imgur.com/hOqSYB1.png

I have posted a couple of charts going through the same pattern, namely XMR/BTC and DASH/BTC.  Although the volatility of the three differ the pattern and the behavior are almost identical.  You also have to keep in mind that these three cryptocurrencies were the part of ones that trended up nicely for a couple or more months.

So what does this mean?  Will see more of these in the coming months?  Are we entering another phase of bearish outlook?  Is to short the way to make profit at the moment?  You decide.

Nice thread.
As someone who is new to trading its really helpful to have someone post this info and some explanation as to their thought process.
I appreciate your work and will check back later. GL 2 every 1  :)

unless of course you can actually gain interest on your holdings .. say 9.9% annual ?

https://dash-news.de/dashtv/#value=1000

which is why Dash currently has the second largest full nodes network (you get rewards for running a full node).

http://178.254.23.111/~pub/masternode_count.png

In the end i think some cryptocurrencies are more suited to hold longterm and some cryptocurrencies are
more suited for daytrading.

Bs; basic finance there.

if you want to calculate your return with such interest you do:

(P1-P0+D1)/P0

P1: price today
P0=Price as which you bought
D1:Dividends (here interest) you received

If you bought the top, sfyl but 8% might not be enought short term.

Hey tokeweed, nice thread. Ive also shorted factom and xmr at a good price because it also looked like the market makers are out and bull traps. What do you think about ripple? Volume is fading again and considering the huge dumps I happened to think pumpers already sold. Please share your ideas. Again, nice thread, keep it up. Thanks.

I know I might regret this but I'm staying away from XRP after having two small losses when I traded it in the past couple of months.  It's too swingy for my taste and I would wait for it to settle before going back in, if I get back that is.

XRP is probably one of the best looking TA chart in Polo :

https://i.imgur.com/8qNIdNr.png

We broke an important resistance in mid september but could not hold above 1450 ish, now the most important resistance.

the old resistance at 1100 ish became support, and we consolidate here in a trading range after the break out. Once we got fuel back, market tried to break again 1450 ish but could not hold above it. We may be forming a trading range between the old resistance which became support and 1450 ish.

Ps: notice the sign of accumulation since june that are very bullish (nonetheless, one could argue last pump attempt saw a bit of distribution, which could go with the hypothesis that we could be forming a new trading range).

I'm currently riding the small waves around 1300-1360. Its been like this couple of days. But It's pretty obvious someone is accumulating the sell side up until 1360 when there are enough orders. However, because of the huge dumps it might be also viable to think that market makers are out for now, as the volume is fading too. I predict a spike either way soon. Mostly likely top but it could be to 1100 too.

Market makers have nothing to do with pumper, otherwise we'll have a conflict of interest ;)

Thanks for sharing your chart and analysis.  I made a small buy in XRP after seeing it and I made other lower bids in case I could get in cheaper.  ;)

Keep the charts and analysis coming.  It would be nice to have more people post their thought process so that we could learn from each other.


Yup the market makers don't really care at what direction the market goes as they can make some profit either way.  The whales, the pumpers and the insiders are the ones to look out for but the problem is how.

Great initiative. As for someone new, can you share greater light on your technical analysis. And if possible, send the noob in direction towards better TA. What I am asking is how can I learn TA for my self. I have tried youtube but the information is so scattered.

My advice would be to dive in and actually trade with real money and in a live setting.  Since you have already watched videos and I assume have read some books then the next step is to learn through experience.  Why not start from a small amount and start trading with that.  You'll soon find out that actual trading is different from looking at the markets.

Now onward to Factom...

FCT/BTC:  A Dead Cat Bounce?

https://i.imgur.com/JYi4zed.png

So I just read the news on Coindesk that Factom got 4.2 million USD in series A funding that was lead by none other than Tim Draper:  http://www.coindesk.com/factom-blockchain-series-a-4-2-million/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CoinDesk+%28CoinDesk+-+The+Voice+of+Digital+Currency%29

So the FCT market got crazy and there's buying everywhere giving the shorts a little cringe on why this is happening now.  But the real question is, "Is this a dead cat bounce or is it the start of a reversal?"  In my experience this usually means a DCB.  These movements are normal in trading markets and nothing ever traded in an exchange goes down or up in a straight line.  FCT still is ok for now if you are shorting it but always keep in mind to protect yourself and set a stop loss and be ready to cover you shorts.

It also felt like a dead cat bounce to me. It got overhyped in trollbox and people fomo bought a lot. Factom is a good investment long term nonetheless however in short term I think it might go back to sub 400. More than half of the buys are grouped up under 370 and minus the fake walls all it takes a little bit of dump to start the dumpfest. I think it would go back to 330-360 range for further accumulation for the next real pump.

So glad I shorted over 460, I closed my position at 425 as we might see some spikes that can be taken advantage of. I'm also sad that I closed my short on ripple too early, I have had several shorts between 1550 - 1350, guess I just need some more btc to spread my positions.

I'm also watching xmr to short for a week know, I was almost certain that a short would be awesome over 130 before the REP addition, but had open positions on ripple so I was pennyless. Will xmr going to touch sub 0.007? What do you guys think?

I really hope not.
I feel like the market for the coin is really fragile right now.
People were expecting it to do big things, and now that things are getting stale, everyone is in panic mode.
A slight drop might lead to a huge panic selloff which may be hard to recover from.
If it drops to 0.01 it probably will drop to 0.007 unfortunately. :(

Meh. Factom started to bullish now, since the spikes are getting higher low resistances I'm kinda urged to open a long position. There seems to be accumulation going on with the it. What do you guys think? Maybe it was not just a pump.

While having over 60% of the Dash money supply tied up in the masternodes can over the short term support the price of Dash it can also be a double edged sword and lead to a sharp fall in price of Dash if the market were to perceive that the fall in price is going to be greater than the masternode yield.

A sharp drop in price is of course a opportunity for a day trader playing the short side of the market. Having said this day trading any crypto currency can be an incredibly risky business. I seriously doubt that any particular crypto currecny is actually more suited for day trading than others.

While the numbers are not exact, at least %60 of 4000ish masternodes were created with cheap coins. Since the price was a joke at those times, it was very easy to get 1000 darkcoin and many people rather locked them up in masternodes as the single month profit is probably greater than the amount they paid to get 1000 coins. Either way, having coins locked up in masternodes does indeed create a scarcity and pushes up the price.

ETH/BTC:  Short now?  But where's the volume?

https://i.imgur.com/x436N7c.png

If you read my more newer posts about ETH/BTC, you'll see that I suggested that it be short sold maybe a month or a couple months ago.  I think I said this about 2 times only for it to either stay flat or go up.  It hit my stoploss on my second attempt and I got of tired waiting for it to move in my first attempt so I covered.

This time around there's another signal but I'm reluctant to make a move on it because the volume isn't there.  Maybe this recent sell down is made by one anxious whale and it'll be over soon.  Another guess is that there may be some small ETH holders who want to switch to BTC due to BTC showing some strength lately.  Whatever it is, I'll continue to watch but I'm sitting on my hands on this one for now... 

I actually think this may be the case for a lot of altcoins.
If people are expecting BTC to go up they may pull out of other investments and sit on their coins until we hit the $650-700 mark some people are predicting.

True.  BTC has found its footing and it looks like it's being accumulated again.  The exchanges to look out for are the Chinese exchanges.  The last couple of pumps were done by them and it seems like they own Bitcoin in a way.  Those who control the mining farms indirectly controls the network.

Oh and some good news.  ETC is now available for margin trading on Kraken.  I hope REP follows soon.

That bullish concensus on BTC looks more and more appropriate for a short pull back and a long squeeze.

Not unless China steps in and pumps the hell out of this.  And the current movement looks the same as the one on 2015 when BTC was around 200 - 230 USD.  Check out the chart from August 25, 2015 to October 10, 2015.  That was just before China stepped in and pumped it above 400 USD.  If you're waiting for a pull back it might not come anymore.  It's better to start nibbling at it small and slowly than regret not holding some for the big rise.

DASH/BTC:  Is it Time to Go Short?  ... No really, is it?

https://i.imgur.com/TanoCOV.png

Here's another signal to go short that I'm sitting my hands on.  I have made two moves on this that resulted in two small losses.  So I guess the better option for now is to wait for a couple of weeks more and see if the trend down is real by confirming it through the price movement.  And keep in mind that the scenario is changing in the markets as BTC might be on its way up as mentioned from my post above this.  So altcoin shorters be ready.

If your strategy doesn't work I deeply advice you to reconsider it  ;D

The strategy is fine.  I'm willing to take small losses as the wins make up for them giving me a decent margin to gain some profit.  While whipsaws are part of the way I trade, sometimes it gets really frustrating especially when markets go flat.

Edit:  ETC is a short as well.  You can do it on Kraken.

I've been waiting for the price of Factom to rise higher for a while now. Guess I can't keep tying down my funds, I'll short and try my luck with some other coin.

If you are have patiente and won't get liquidated easily, just wait. Factom can go as down as 300, but it will eventually be back up. In a month with m2 release there are definetly oppurtunities for you to close your position without a loss. But ofcourse if don't want to miss other chances, its your choice.

On the other hand, I've been thinking to short dash since it was 197, usually when I do after a drop the price goes back up so I won't touch it even tho the chart tells me to short.

I'm curious what was the fundamental reason why you decided to short sell Dash?  As you can see, I make decision mostly be looking at the charts and see where the price momentum goes relative to the volume and Bitcoin's price movements.  So it's purely technical.  But I'm interested in the fundamentals as well and I want to learn how to trade using it.  I was wondering if you could enlighten us by explaining what are the fundamental issues to watch out for when deciding to go long or short.

I had several indicators. Besides having a bearish look since the early September spike, I also thought btc's long waited and anticipated rise would also force Dash down. But, and a big but here, I like and enjoy day trading. So If I would have shorted at 197, Id probably closing my position as soon as it touched sub 190. I still think dash will decline further to sun 175 until It can go up again.

Kinda cba to post some graphical analysis though have a look at stellar. Someones been collecting it since September. 2 spikes happened because of that and the total amount of coins in sale decreased everytime. I personally opened a long position at a nice dip. What do you think tokeweed? Have you had a chance to take a look at it?

Yeah been watching it but I'm staying away from it.  It's too choppy for my taste as I like smoother charts and low volatility when getting in.  And then when a coin breaks out and volatility increases, your orders are already filled.  That's the idea at least.

But STR (or XLM) does look like it's being accumulated atm.  If you really want to get in and hold long term then buy the dips I guess.  Good luck.

I like your idea, but sometimes throwing in a few btcs at a coin you can at least forget about to a month can yield good returns. I personally will always reserve my day trading money (not really trading anything since the low volumes these days) but still, just a few btcs. :P

What happened to your chart analysis btw?

DASH/BTC:  Short Signal Confirmed?

https://i.imgur.com/dcGnRXZ.png

Signals to short sell Dash gets stronger and stronger everyday, I wish I was brave enough to act on the trade the minute I first saw it.  But now is a good time as ever to make a short sell as it doesn't look like it might going up anytime soon.  We'll see some spikes from time to time but that would usually be a desperate attempt by some traders to make something happen.


WAVES/BTC:  Breaking Out or Accumulation?

https://i.imgur.com/50Hb0yP.png

I've been getting a couple of pm's asking if I have something that would advice to go long.  Well here it is, Waves.  I have no idea exactly what's going on with the platform but somebody or some group is loving this one.  Notice the small spikes in volume, that all might be from the same buyer/group of buyers accumulating and supporting it.  The neon green horizontal line is the resistance.  We just saw it break but it went back down.  That could mean a couple of things:  1) That it could be the start of a break out, or 2) It's not.  ;D

But continue following the price movements, or better yet accumulate some for yourself but set a stop loss just in case it goes the other direction.  Good luck.

Waves looks good, agree with your TA. Incent ICO and the upcoming full nodes are probably the reason price has increased.

I have no idea what's making Waves go up, but this is weird as it's going up together with BTC.  :D  I have done a little reading about Waves and it seems that the full nodes' release have been long over due.

On the other hand mostly the rest of altcoins are going down.  All the short sell advice in this thread are spot on and the long advice, which is Waves clearly appears to be the right decision as well.  But I would advice to always keep watch of your stoploss.

And keep in mind the scene just changed due to BTC's (solid?) rise.  If you're waiting for a reversal in your favorite altcoin then that might take longer than you might expect.  It's better to be holding BTC right now.

Waves:  Is This a Correction or a Reversal?

https://i.imgur.com/FIvtyIm.png

The first big red day just happened since the fast climb of Waves occurred.  So is this a mere correction or a permanent reversal?  I don't have the answers and it's precisely why I'm asking you on what you guys think.

And what caused the rise anyway?  To answer where this market will go is to answer what caused the rise in the first place.

Reversal, put your chart on 12h time frame, shooting start candlestick + bearish divergence. broke both support of 48k et 51k. to late to make any move, you need to be quicker, falls are always sharp. I did probably one of the best sale point of my entire life, thanks crypto.

Waves is still looking good right now.  With all the tools in TA that you can use, you can still come up with the wrong conclusion some percentage of the time.

Anyway here's a new write up for Dash.

DASH/BTC:  Time to Close your Shorts?

https://i.imgur.com/kvfFUfy.png

Notice the spike in volume coupled with the sell down to .0105 BTC or so, could that be the final sell down?  If it is then Dash might have hit the bottom for this down trend and might be a start of a new accumulation phase.

On the other hand the current rise in price has no volume behind it so it might just be a technical reaction to BTC/USD when it fell below 700 USD for a bit.  But who's to say?  Sometimes it's a sign that the bear is gone and it's time to accumulate.

What do you guys think?

XMR/BTC:  Exhibiting the Same Pattern as Dash

https://i.imgur.com/ixOqghL.png

Here's another one.  The same pattern as Dash in the post above.  This could very may well be a sign that the bearish trend is starting to end across some altcoins and a following accumulation phase begins.  I'm waiting for ETH, FCT and some of the rest like ETC to show the same pattern and I think it would be time to start shopping for alts to buy and wait for the bull run.

I would appreciate all your comments and thoughts.  GLGT.

you'll see those pattern in most of altcoin ... panic sell to catch an hypothetical bitcoin bull run. Moreover, I did not sell all my waves, just hedged my position.

That chart is a bull trap, the coin is dumping. Its pump phase is over for now - till maybe next month or early next year.

I'm aware that the pump is over.  But the question is if it's the beginning of another accumulation phase that would be a preparation for the next pump.  The funny thing is most people would see the accumulation phase as a sign that the coin is already dead.

NXT/BTC:  Has the Accumulation Phase Begun?

https://i.imgur.com/fyKZ5cx.png

Here's what most traders of cryptocurrencies want to keep quiet about:  When their favorite coins/tokens are in a phase of accumulation.  :D

They don't want it to be prematurely pumped before they have filled their bags as they want to gain the maximum profit (in BTC) possible that they can take from the market.  As for the chart, please notice the last red spikes in volume.  Imho, that's the last of the big sell downs and it's highly possible that there will be none as large as that anymore.  So it's probably safe to start accumulating some NXT now.

Please comment below.  

I'm not that good with technical chart analysis but I have been following you for sometime and you have been really helpful with your projection, concerning NXT, I think the price will hit around 500 - 600 sat there is nothing to drive the price up now until next snapshot.

I am personnaly in, and watching the comment below of jacafbiz makes me even more bullish. but I don't have crystal ball, only the future will tell.

EDIT: but still monitoring that closely, don't want to get affected by a bitcoin bullrun.

Yeah that's the thing.  The equation has changed because BTC is still rising to who knows how high.  So it might be better to hold everything in BTC right now or short sell some altcoins as mentioned in this thread.  REP/BTC is looking more and more ripe for the picking for shorting, I will keep monitoring it and will do an analysis if need me.  GL.

I can't see your post on REP/BTC, can you please paste the link. But I will like to ask where do you project that the BTC bull run would end

As I said, I'll make an analysis later if needed.  I'm still in the sidelines as far as REP/BTC is concerned.  With BTC, my answer is I don't know.  I never believed in market prediction much and have never set profit taking targets or anything of that sort.  What I do as set a trailing stoploss to protect my gains but not close enough to stop me out of the trade.

I have a BTC speculation thread if you're interested:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1670362.0

And I wanted to make a Waves analysis as the current trend up seems to be waning.  Too bad Cryptrader is down so I won't be able to do that.  Please suggest me a crypto charting website and I'll do my analysis there.  Thanks.

Sure, I am thinking the same here. I have been accumulating NXT for sometime now. I think the worst is over for now as the charts seem to tell so. I feel if NXT can make a move above 1000 /1500 sats and if it can manage to stay above these levels, we can soon expect a pump in NXT. So anyone looking to trade or invest in to NXT should get into the ride now. Just my opinion. Please do your due diligence.

Check out REP/BTC, that could be another good short as BTC goes up and up vs fiat.  I wish Cryptrader gets back online soon so I could post the chart and my thought process.

Edit:  I had a couple PM's asking where to short REP.  Kraken is the only exchange where you can do it.  I would prefer Poloniex though becuase of the familiar interface.  But Kraken would do if you figure out their platform.

WAVES/BTC:  I'm out for now.

https://i.imgur.com/2BtPQdv.png

I've been meaning to get a post about Waves the minute this sell down happened because it hit my stoploss at .00045, .00046 and .00047 BTC, but Cryptrader was down and the moment it went up a day later, I got lazy.  :P

Anyway, yeah, I'm out of Waves but there's one thing that perplexes me.  Where is the volume spike?  It would tend to make me think that the whales that got this pumping in the first place are still holding.  But that's a big maybe.  Let's see what developments come up in the coming weeks.

maybe the whale started dumping from the first spike until the last one

Yeah.  That's the smartest way to go about it.  It doesn't break the trend right away after the dump within the first spike and the second, giving the whales to slowly sell their coins to clueless, willing bagholders.  The last dump were probably the bagholders finally realizing what's really going on and then proceeded to panic sell their holdings really quick.

so with your assessment its a dump coming from the bag holders and whales who really got the price while its still cheap and now they are dumping it to make more panic and to cash out their earnings? just asking because i love when you make assessment its cool to chase the price and it will turned to profitable if placing an entry in the right timing. 

To simplify this is what usually happens in pump and dumps.  The whales and the insiders buy low and then they pump the coin selling high to the would be bagholders.  The whales and insiders leave and the bagholders realize that the coin isn't getting much higher anymore.  Some of the bagholders get lucky by selling first making them a small profit or making them break even.  But most of the bagholders sell at a loss.  While some stay in denial and don't sell, making them the real ultimate bagholders.

Interesting. From what I can tell is around 120-150 BTC just exited in one big swoosh. Might have been just one guy.

Since BTC price changed so much over the past months I'm talking cents here. Around 80% of all my Waves I bought in August-September for an average of 19$ cents each, so those I'm still holding.
The ones I bought in October I sold when the drop happened at a tiny win.

The bottom seems to be 25 cents right now. If it drops below that I'm very open to buy in big.

I think you bought your waves with bitcoins, thus if you are trying to rationalize your loss talking in cents, welcome to the bag holder club.

Not at all actually.
I convert crypto to fiat every 2-4 months on average. All I care about is: I go in with 10k$, I come out with say 12k$. For those 2k$ extra I buy real things. Like say a holiday, clothes or other expenses. I don't understand what sounds so irrational about it and what an outdateed Satoshi price has to do with it.

Sure if it matters to you that much I bought in between 27-34K Satoshi months ago, back then BTC was 610$, now it's 730$.

If I would sell all my Waves for fiat right now I'm at big +.

"not all actually" i've seen better lies, where did you buy waves with $??

Moreover, now that it's clear that you invested in btc, you have to compare return vs btc, what if I tell you that it could have been much better to keep your money in btc and not waves depending on when you invested? that falacy...

Steem:  Poised to Breakout?

https://i.imgur.com/9IqpmCv.png

After months and months of falling it has to end somewhere, right?  Well wait no further (possibly), because it looks like Steem has finally hit rock bottom and there's no other way to go but up.  Yes I said it!  ;D  So at least the people who converted their investment to Steem Power (lol) have something to look forward to and be happy (hopeful) about.  But then again this is the market, there's no saying where this will really go.  We'll have to wait and see.

REP/BTC:  It's up!  No it's down.  It's up!  Nope.

https://cryptrader.com/c/hFEzu2j2

Another good short could be REP/BTC (REP/XBT at Kraken where you can actually short it).  After two bull traps, where the majority who are trading this bought into, there seems to be a small number of those who has finally conceded and started to accept that REP is indeed going down.  I mean think about it, they have nothing to show for after all these years and after all the hype.  But who knows what's really is going on in Augur's development, my concern is the price of REP and how to make profit from its movements.  And it looks like its maybe gonna go down some more.  What do you think?

Tokeweed, I noticed that Waves has moved back to 40Ksat this morning what is your toake on this. looking at your earlier post concerning the dump

It's most probably a bull trap.  I haven't taken a look at the latest chart yet, but I will as soon as I get back home and post it here.

STEEM/BTC:  Is That it???

https://i.imgur.com/n1QRc6D.png

What looked like it might make 10x returns is looking like another fake out once again.  When it 'broke out' yesterday I was excited to make a post about it but I decided not to because I was afraid I would jinx it.  But still nothing happened, anyway so might as well start talking about it now.

SO, is that it?  Is the party over?  Did the pumpers who set this up gotten out already?  All signs point to yes.  Notice the huge fall from the peak.  Note that it all happened yesterday.  So that's really quite weak, and chances are those traders who played it to the top were basically giving their money to and from each other.  And check out the volume...  Yup that looks like it's pretty much it. 

But then I could be wrong.  No really.  Could this be an opportunity to buy now?  Risk it to know it.  :)

ETH/BTC:  The Classic Bull Trap

https://i.imgur.com/BKua30L.png

Now I might make a fool out myself here by posting this, as this could be a last ditch attempt for the whales behind Ethereum to manipulate the price up.  It may even be an exit scam as we have all seen that the platform is in dire straits.

But anyway, look at the chart without any 'filters' and 'shades' of technical indicators that tend to make one situation look subjectively like another.  That looks a lot like a classic Bull Trap or what some would say a Dead Cat Bounce.  Don't fall for it.  If anything, it's an opportunity to get some shorts here and there.  But be careful, like I mentioned this could also be a last ditch attempt for the whales to moon this. 

https://i.imgur.com/RB6a7P4.gif

this is exactly why we are here, fomo short had to stop. eth may have capitulated, only the future will tell us.

I totally agree with you that only the future can definitely tell us where this all is going.  But we have seen this happen again and again before.  And it usually ends how it usually ends.  It goes back to how it was trending as before because it was simply a bull trap in the first place.

Please note that I said 'usually' as reversals also tend to happen a certain amount.

This is kind of tempting me to add ETH to my portfolio. But Right now, it seems best to wait and see if ETH will corrects more in the coming days. What do you have to say about Stellar? It looks like Stellar is all set for a mega bull run and it has already started. Could you post your thoughts on it?

That's up to you if you wanna get into ETH.  Imho it's still too risky to buy it.  I'd rather go long on ETC as it might be starting to become more stable lately.

On STR, I have no idea.  I personally tend to stay away when an altcoin becomes too volatile.  Also keep in mind that I don't believe in making predictions in the market.  All we can do is follow the price.

If there is absolutly no predictive power in technical analysis, we are in weither:

- weak efficiency hypothesis, all information endogeneous to the price is already priced in, no point in watching the chart.
- strong efficiency hypothesis, all information available is already perfectly priced in, market follows a random walk, no point in looking at chart pattern's again.

Thus, if all you can do is follow the price, close the chart.

Nah.  That's EMH you're talking about.  I follow my own philosophy in trading.  I have accepted the fact that I can't predict the market perfectly, because who really can right?  All I do is follow the price and make my own rules in trading which focuses more on sizing my trades, measuring volatility and knowing when to buy or sell before I even make the trade.  I make my analysis public but I don't spoon feed you all the info.  It should be a learning process for everyone.

I just told you that there is no point in analysing the chart if you don't believe in technical analysis... you're just loosing time. We are speaking about empirical studies in place since the 60s, I personally think that this weight a bit more than our personal biased opinion.

Who are you to tell me that there's no point and how I trade?  You're just like me, an amateur trader who's trying to learn and to earn.  If you can earn.  If you were really a 'pro' then you wouldn't be wasting your time in this forum.  You also have a sig campaign like me, I would like to add.

My strategy has been working out for me so far.  If you can teach me on your way of how to trade, then we can start discussing it in private or public if you want.

It is how it is, sadly. If I make 100 predictions, at least 80 of them turns out right but I end up buying only 30 of those. I also end up buying at least 10 of the failed predictions. If you are not a whale you are not a 'pro' trader.  This market is even more manipulated than penny stock markets. Even whales lose time to time.

So your prediction for Eth is that the downward trend will continue for some time, but looking at the chart the price seems stable around $8 for some days now

I am not critisizing the way you trade but just telling you that what you are saying is contradictory per se.

It may sound contradictory to you but it's really not.  I refuse to believe that people in general can make perfect predictions in the market for a different reason, not the EMH reason which assumes everyone participating in the market is rational.

The reason why I don't believe people can't predict the market is because, who can?  But does that mean I shouldn't follow the price of something to make a trade?  Should I trade blind by just buying and then holding?  Of course not.  My belief is psychology plays a role in the market and that is reflected on the price.

ETC/BTC:  Happy Days Ahead?

https://i.imgur.com/UAetRFe.png

I have two simple questions for the experts in this forum.  Is this a break out and a start of an uptrend?  And will this uptrend be as huge as ETH's was months ago?

Please comment below and tell us what you think.

smart money is in, now let the dumb money join them at the top (IMO further up)

haha, that is true.
but i have been doing some experiments lately (not a long time) with trading during these pumps. and my strategy is to get in during th rise preferably before the top and do some short trades on the way up for some profit, and i have been successful so far, although the length of the time that i am doing this is not long enough to say anything certain about this method but i am happy so far with it.

you've been shorting overall weaknesses in the alt market how it has to be done (better to wait until it hits resistance to add to short). but market when market will be bullish, you'll lose your profits and more.

Who are you referring to when you say 'smart money'?  Is it the whales like Barry Silbert (who's a known ETC supporter)?  Is it the regular big funded traders in Poloniex?  I would think there are only several of them, maybe even less.

the "guys" that actually makes money. they are also call whales, composite man, manipulator,... it's just an image, it's better to be on there side when trading.

ETC seems to be a bull trap. The hype on both ETH and ETC are gone and some whales have already cashed out on ETH. It would be pointless to buy ETH at such high
price when the ETH hype is over. I would prefer to wait until ETC touches 10k satoshi before I would consider buying.

The whole pump was based on the news/rumors that ETC will look to cap the total supply of the coins in 2017. This will make it limited in supply and they are trying to roll out 100 Dapps which is not easy to do. So all these must have caused the traders to pump up ETC.

The capping of ETC's coin supply is not a rumor, it's true.  If this is truly a bull trap remains to be seen, as we could be witnessing a start of a large trend coming.  I base this assessment on the increasing hashing power of ETC.  The miners from ETH could be pointing their rigs to ETC now because Vitalik seems motivated in switching to POS.

In the short term moving away from a fixed coin reward may create an increase in price in ETC because of the increase in scarcity, but fundamentally this is a very bad move over the longterm. The falling coin reward will put into serious question the ability of ETC to scale while at the same time maintaining the security of the proof of work.

It would be very ironic if capping the the coin supply in ETC leads to ETC surpassing XMR in market cap while at the same time removing ETC as a competitor of XMR in the area of an adaptive blocksize with a secure proof of work. As I have said before I have not seen a solution for an adaptive blocksize with a secure proof of work without a minimum tail reward. Minimum fixed fees in the protocol is not the answer here. This could easily become very serious long term pain in exchange for some short term gains for ETC, and some short term pain in exchange for long term gains for XMR.  

Ok...  I totally get what you're arguing for needing an adaptive blocksize + some sort of additional reward system in place to scale and for miners to continually secure the network once all the coins are mined.  I want to take that argument to Bitcoin.  Will that really affect BTC, or will it really matter?  It's still a long way to go til 2140.

In theory you could be right, so I could not really argue.

DASH/BTC:  Another Opportunity to Short?

https://i.imgur.com/yTOuAnq.png

With BTC looking like it will surge past the 1000 USD mark by the end of the first quarter of 2017, it's time to find and short the more vulnerable altcoins.  I think DASH is one of them.  It's been really weak for the past couple of months with some intervening bull traps, but overall it's a good short.  And the recent price action could be a sign that it's good to add some more in your short position.

I completely agree with you, Dash has been showing sign of weakness coupled with low volume, any BTC rally is likely to crash the price

What exchange/ method are you guys using to short a coin?
I looked into the Margin Trading section on Poloniex, but it looks like you can only do shorts with borrowed funds? Or am I reading this section wrong?
https://poloniex.com/support/aboutMarginTrading/

On poloniex you actually needs to borrow funds that you then sell to buy the asset back, hopefully, at a cheaper price and cash in the difference.

In Bitmex, using future, you can actually short the asset and close before settlement of the contract, thus allowing you to do naked shorts, no owning the underlying asset.

In order to short sell, you always need to borrow the coins involved unless naked shorting is allowed which is a bad idea overall.  The borrowed coins should be backed up by the deposit in your account.

Besides Poloniex, Kraken is also a good platform to do short selling.  Their interface is a little confusing though and takes a little getting used to.

Ok thanks, appreciate the advice.
I've been looking into doing some short sales but didn't know what site to use.

Personally if i were to short a coin i would short it from the top, i would never ever short a coin when its at the very bottom and also has strong support there..... thats just way too risky.
But then again i never shorted a coin in my life, i just collect Dash as much as i can to get as many masternodes running as possible, as i think they form excellent longterm investments.

Indeed, that's what is supposed to be done.  :D

Only way to short at that point is to wait until support breaks (and at least 4h candle close below it).

But don't forget if that support breaks, it could go lower than ever before.  The argument was if BTC continues its surge what would that make of Dash?  And remember that most altcoins are considered ponzis and all it relies on is in the law of supply and demand.

Support didn't break obviously, but what if it did?

ETC/BTC:  Possible Good Entry Point If You Missed the Bottom

https://i.imgur.com/Tp0qtML.png

I know most of the aspiring traders here like me miss some good entry points from time to time but we shouldn't really be kicking ourselves about it and what we should be doing is find more good entry points with the minimal probability of losing.  Imo, this could be another good entry point for ETC as this could just be another pull back for another break upwards.  Remember, this is just my opinion and I would love to hear more about your ideas and opinions.  Especially from sandiman who I think is one of the people with more trading experience who reads and posts in these boards.

https://twitter.com/SFYLL/status/815224165103849472

This is what i've got. I used wyckoff method here because I though it was appropriate with such clear accumulation pattern. My Price objective is between 0.02 and 0.022, which also goes with one of the biggest resistance of etc. From then, I cannot speak much more (I may already be wrong), but I don't see etc stopping there definitly, we may just bounce back and forth until enough supply has been absorbed, but the latter is too much speculation. Anyway, I am in since november and also think that was a pullback, on which I sized my position (so my money is at the same place as my mouth). ;D

Yeah I feel iffy accumulating a lot of ETC though, it just feels wrong for as long as BTC is staying the course with its current trend, that is.  A majority of what we should all be holding should be in BTC right now, with a little XMR and ETC imho.  The rest look like crap or something I wouldn't to hold even if they are looking to reverse in trend like REP.

needless to say i accumulate quite a bit in comparaison of my poloniex account, but those are not a lot compared to my whole crypto portfolio :)

Yeah the wiser choice is to hold Bitcoin right now.  There's also a case in arguing for holding XMR too, since it's rising in Bitcoin value.  With ETC, sure I'll bite but more of a nibble than a bite just to satisfy my urge to gamble.  ;)

REP/BTC:  Is it Poised for a Breakout?

https://i.imgur.com/RoIvz9g.png

We've seen this pattern before.  Sometimes it's a sign that it's nearing a breakout, so it might be a good idea to buy a few and maybe add more if it really does surge higher.  What really puzzles me is the whole market is moving differently than in the past.  Could we also be entering the much desired cryptocurrency bull rush?

SC/BTC:  Looks Like a Clean Breakout

https://i.imgur.com/p3ofpI0.png

I honestly missed this trade as I don't follow lower volume coins that much.  But I just want to show everyone what a clean breakout looks like and that these set ups are very ideal for the momentum based trader.

I know I'll get a couple of pm's asking 'How is this good to us?  What should we do?'.  Well I don't wanna spoon feed everything but getting in at a point where SC's volatility lowers a bit is good.  Be patient and don't be scared on missing out in some trades.  You can't ride them all.

Reversals?

https://i.imgur.com/2HhlqCP.png

https://i.imgur.com/iryvfhD.png

Check out the charts of AMP/BTC and XRP/BTC above.  Would you say that those two tokens have established a reversal due to the crash of BTC?  I think some of the alts will start going up unless Bitcoin goes on a crazy mania rampage again.  Which it won't.  Well not for a while at least...  :)

LBC/BTC:  Going Super Nova?

https://i.imgur.com/euV78dO.png

So yeah, the first thing I did when I noticed LBC was moving I immediately make a thread about it here:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1752048.0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1752048.0)

I was surprised that no one was really interested in the move as it has the makings of becoming a 'Super Nova'.  That's a term coined by a day trader named Timothy Sykes.  Look him up and watch his videos.

The next thing I did was go to Coinmarketap and look at its market capitalization.  Again it was surprising that it was valued under 1m USD (during that time).  Imagine if it could get pumped all the way to the top 10.  So we could either trade it and make some BTC profit or just be in the sidelines and whine about how altcoins are all a scam.  Your pick.

Hey guys, I haven't posted here in a while.  A couple of people were pm'ing me asking if I was coming back here and make a little more content.  I would like to say, of course I am. Posting my ideas and though process helps me a lot more than all of you think.  It makes everything clear.  Every mistake and every right decision.

Right now I'm looking at MAID and XEM.  I will post charts and my thought process later if I have the time.

As promised here are both of my thought process for MAID and XEM.

MAID/BTC:  Broke Out and Given Another Chance

https://i.imgur.com/FBQGN9E.png

When this broke out the first time, the run up was quick and I'm pretty sure a lot of traders missed the ride of what might be a decent trend.  Good think there are some traders who actually got in who made a quick exit by dumping huge bags in the market.  That created a second chance to get in.  If you still didn't get because you were having second thoughts, then I don't thank a third one will come anymore.


XEM/BTC:  Breakout, Another +3000%?

https://i.imgur.com/7dI41G0.png

Another speculative trade that could rake in a home run.  XEM is one of 2016's best performers, and who are we to say it can't be on 2017?  If this breaks out, I fill my bags.  ;D

NXT/BTC:  Making a Comeback?

https://i.imgur.com/qkxjTLe.png

First of all, I have no idea what's exactly going on with NXT, and have no idea what Ardor is all about.  I post this basing everything on the chart.  So it seems everything has bottomed out with NXT and it might be a good time to start accumulating again as it's possible that it has nowhere to go but up.  I think I mentioned a couple of years ago that in order for NXT to become an enticing trade it has to go down a lot in price.  Well it's down...  Make your move.  ;)

All bets are off.  Bitcoin is surging once again affecting all altcoins badly.  If I really need to gamble on alts.  I would start looking for bargains at the more solid, proven altcoins with good backing in development.  Altcoins like XMR, ETC and LTC.  Each have an argument for long term success, so why not get into these if they're getting cheap.

ETC/XMR, pretty confident regarding 2017. got both, mainly ETC at good price  ;D

Edit :

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ETCBTC/VIWATmW5-ETC-Price-objective-using-Wyckoff-Method/

Yup, Ethereum Classic looks like it's still near it's bottom, I wish I could speak the same of Monero.  I got in and out a few times making decent profit but I wish I just held no matter what.  I would've made tons more.  I was there when it went in its all time low only to trade in and out of it.  I missed the big move tbh.  But going all in and hoping for the best isn't how I trade.  I actually learn how the proper way.

I totally agree, as I shorted the break out of the multi year trading range, we all know what happened  ;D (thanks god I used stop loss on that one)

Exactly the same, had long positions below 700 above 5 btc... Closed too early for stupid day trading... :/

Great thread, we can make reference to buy the lucrative altcoin, but I think, the analysis cannot guarantee it will profit, sometimes there are a lot of things that could have affected the price, it's good advice given to us in taking decisions, where coins are good and profitable opportunities so that we can take a decision.

you lost your credibility by mentioning LTC

As you mentioned above, XEM will definitely break the 1k sats barrier very soon. I cant say I am a huge fan of ETC and LTC but regarding XMR we MAY see it drop to 0.011 (absolute minimum) but then I can see a surge in price to around 0.017.

I regret selling the minute Bitcoin began to surge upwards again.  The window to buy back could be lost and I'm not FOMO'ing my way back in again.  I'd rather miss a trade than do something motivated by emotion.  Oh well...


Lol.  I don't care.

Until now, I have not seen that a subcool can adapt to market fluctuations. They often take a position on the negative side and re-evaluate the crypto market for the time. There is an interesting situation here, actually. If it can be formulated, it can create opportunities

ETC/BTC:  Long Way Down?

First of all, before I post the chart I want you to listen to this song to go with the though process I'm about to give you.

Goo Goo Dolls - Long Way Down
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Mbx6tNjsl8

;)

https://i.imgur.com/7wliHgW.png

You're still listening to the song, right?  Do I need to say more?  After three lower highs what does that really tell you?  It's on it's way down, unless there'll be a manipulated pump happening soon or some breakthrough.  The former could happen the latter, not hoping so much.  Shorting this could reap in a small profit here.

XMR/BTC:  The Time to Short is Now

https://i.imgur.com/5Cp6I4N.png

Hello my fellow wannabe traders!  It's now time to take a look at XMR/BTC and look for a little short selling for fun and profit.  With BTC doing what it does best by being BTC, defying all odds, still climbing its way out of and above resistance, altcoins have no choice but to raise the red flag for now and must inevitably fall.  Although I admit I'm a little confused with the current set up as BTC's new climb could still be a bull trap.  Whether that's really the case or not, I don't know.  What I do is set my stop losses and go with the flow.

Anyway, look into getting some Monero shorts as this could continue to go down more.

lower high needs lower lows.

XMR actually bounced against a strong support, i'd wait for a break before shorting that.

Yeah, well it pays to gamble a bit.  And besides, I have placed a tight stop loss on this one just in case Bitcoin crashes after bumping on the recent high again (which in turn has the reverse effect on alts).  I would expect the PBOC to be the main culprit again.  Overall the China situation will cool down and it will be good for Bitcoin for the long term imo.

REP/XBT:  Another Victim of the Strength of Bitcoin.  And is Augur Vaporware?

https://i.imgur.com/8uwh39s.png

Here's another possible short opportunity for all of you.  The maintained strength of Bitcoin has again claimed another victim.  I see at least one person here claiming that altcoins are about to 'explode'.  Really?  Not when the king keeps this solid uptrend going, no.  Sorry.  ;D

I have stopped following Augur's development closely.  Does anybody know what's up with it and when is it launching its prediction market?  Things seem too quiet with them, except for one of their founding members having a breakdown on Twitter a couple of months ago.

Damn, I got stopped out on both of my XMR and REP shorts.  I think something interesting is happening here.  Despite BTC's price surge the alts are going up as well.  Usually what happens is the alts go in reverse and falls in Bitcoin value right?  Well not this time.  Are we starting to see the great cryptocurrency bull run happen?

Please post your thoughts.

When new investors are entering into crypto world, typically they are being advised to invest like 50-50 or say 80-20 percents into bitcoins - altcoins. I believe new people are starting come in adopting cryptocurrecnies, that is the reason we are seeing all the coins are up surging.

When only some group of people (like Chinese traders in recent times) pump bitcoin prices, just to maintain the equivalent dollar value altcoin prices are finding downfall in terms of satoshi. In those times, we do get higher bitcoin prices and significantly higher altcoin prices.

Topping gold prices must be a great achievement by bitcoin, hence it is becoming a hot investment among all types of investors world wide. Now we can expect exponential appreciations for bitcoin prices and interestingly this time along with altcoins.    

Looks like it may bottom here simply.

alt have been crushed except a very few.

True.  I have been looking for a couple of altcoins to invest this time.  I usually follow the trend after a breakout and then let it go if that trend ends.  This time I'm looking for a long term hold.  Something with a lot of good potential, a good core of developers, nice community, undervalued and preferably supported by some of the whales of the Bitcoin scene.  If you have an idea what that coin may be, post away.  ;)

Byteball. Not an investment advice though  :D

Don't listen to anyone on internet  :D

I live you a link here, explaining why it is not good to invest in any alts (just trade them):

kazonomics.com/the-truth-of-btc-episode-3-the-invisible-hand-of-belarus/

TL;DR BTC

Long term most alts have no future. Some of them found their niches (banking,gambling,darknet) and such altcoins may survive.
Ask yourself, how will our financial system look like in a 100 years? I find it unlikely there will be thousands of different coins that are not bound to a country. Having one currency (be it BTC or something else) is vastly superior.

I think I pass.  Lol.  Starting the name itself doesn't attract me one bit.  After looking around online, I think I found one decent project that might reap dividends in the future if I invest now.  ETC.  They have some good developers behind it, Barry Silbert looks to be in it for the long haul and so is Hoskinson. 

What do you guys think?

ETC/BTC:  Safe to Buy Now?

https://i.imgur.com/UZf3576.png

This could be a safe time to buy ETC right now.  The price is near the all time bottom (as ETC, exclude the price before the fork) and its fiat value seems stable enough to justify a buy.  What do you guys think?  Will ETC follow ETH in making over a billion USD market cap?  I think it can considering all the development being done and more development planned for the future.  Some might argue it's 'undervalued' right now.

I was just thinking about investing into ETC this morning, I think on long term basis, I see ETC hitting $10, I don't know when but that is how crypto money moves.

Bingo!  ETC is moving!  Now let's see how long this will last.  I have noticed that altcoin trends don't last as long as they did two or three years ago.  Maybe this is because the market doesn't have that many newbies anymore...?  Another reason could be because the market is more cautious and don't buy the idea that altcoins will replace Bitcoin as much as it used to.  I'm sure most of you were or maybe are still a victim of that kind of thinking.

LTC/BTC:  The Bitcoin Civil War and the Search for Shelter

https://i.imgur.com/LlEPUp3.png

All the drama in Bitcoin is getting crazy right now.  BU is gaining ground and the rule of Core might come to an end by first quarter of 2018 (Ok, that's highly doubtful.  Just saying that for suspense value for the thread. Lol.).  With all the craziness taking place it might be good to bet heavy on a stable altcoin.  My advice:  Go for Litecoin.

The alts are falling!  But here's a question for all of you.  Is this the anticipated bubble pop that each butthurt person who missed their trades are waiting for?  Or is this a mere correction that has the altcoin holders sweating but still knows the party continues?

I'm on the side of the latter.  If some of you missed some trades due to second guessing, buying in now is an opportunity in getting in cheaper.  If you're unsure which alt to buy, go for the safe bet:  ETC.

this is what happens:
stage 1
the dump begins, whales start to cash out and other traders who are wise enough will do the same by selling their coins that they are holding.
in this stage the market is still in its previous upward trend hype, so the orderbook is still packed with "buy" orders that will provide a good initial opportunity to dump as much as you like without the price going down much. because there are still traders caught up in the previous hype who were trying to buy a tiny bit lower than market price and sell higher for profit.
stage 2
after the initial dump and people slowly realizing what is happening and those previous "buy" orders who can't sell higher because price is now lower than where they bought at, they also start getting out due to their stop loss. and the chain of events creates bigger dumps. and in this stage most people know the dump is taking place so they remove all their orders and in the end the "buy" orderbook is no longer packed and it is much easier to go down.
stage 3
it is a combination of smooth and fast going down and multiple jumping back ups AKA dead cat bounces. and this finally leads to a price much lower than the high price it started with but not the same low as it started at.
(some price in between but closer to bottom)

this is an easy representation of the orderbook drawn in paint :)
up is before reality kicks in and down is when it does.
https://i.imgur.com/GOcFwWJ.jpg

LTC/BTC:  This Pump Could Bring More Bad Than Good

https://i.imgur.com/a9B8s2s.png

Check the chart out.  It wouldn't be surprising to me if this comes back down to .004 to .0045 BTC.  We have seen this happen a lot of times with altcoins, especially the scammy ones.  This type of pump could be a one day affair by the ones responsible for it imho.  Especially if it doesn't cause enough fish to follow the pump.  For LTC, I would rather see a slow trending rise.  I want this to become a long term kind of investment and not a cryptocurrency that's always being pumped time and time again for short term profits.

Dash, the world's third most valuable digital currency and the growing alternative to Bitcoin, has announced a partnership that will strengthen customer base in Europe. BitPanda, previously known as Coinimal, has added a buy option to Dash on its platform. After a series of strategic business partnerships and software upgrades from January through March, Dash rose from $ 11.21 to $ 100, representing an approximate increase of 800% in the first quarter.

Well it looks like it was royally dumped.  And there are people saying that the master nodes were going down in number while the pump to 100 USD was going on.  Was that just coincedence?  Or were they selling all their Dash?

The masternodes that went offline while the pump to 100 were on a VPN that was attacked by DDoS. link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IkKKRJLeDBA

Well isn't that a little too convenient for them?  But I guess it would be good to find out if the master nodes came back online after the DDOS attack.  Can you give us a link where we could see a graph of all the active the master nodes?  That would be nice, thanks. 

@tokeweed
Any new hint? Have some btc to invest and all respectable altcoins seems too high ???

Ethereum seemed too high @ 0.025 BTC not too long ago, I think this time it's LTC that can double easy.

Not at this time.  Everything seems to have risen a lot, some more than others.  But I still do recommend getting into ETC though, but buy only on the occasional dips and try to put a stoploss just in case the trend reverses to be safe.

Here you go: https://www.dashninja.pl/ if you scroll down near a graph you will see the total and active masternodes (4215 actives at current post)

Someone knew how to DDoS some masternodes and waited till the price started to rise to intentionally keep the price down. I noticed something similar while daily trading cryptos... some people are preventing certain coins in the market from catching momentum (eg.: they instasell if coin is over a certain value to bring it back)

We need a site that shows a graph if the master nodes count is going up or down.  Does someone know how many master nodes were there before the DDOS attack and after it?  It wouldn't be surprising if there's less now than before the pump.

You should weight in Poloniex webpage failing with at least 50% of the whole effect. Some Masternodes failing could get faked from the very same node operators.

DASH/BTC:  There Could be a Short Selling Opportunity Here.

https://i.imgur.com/QstXv5N.png

What goes up must inevitably go down and Dash is no exception despite the Bitcoin Jesus' love for it.  Even he can't turn 'water into wine' (aka making a miracle) on this one.  The market always decides in the end.

All the usual suspects are on this one.  A dwindling volume after a huge pump, the lower volatility and the falling price.  This could mean one of two things.  Accumulation or another dump.  You decide.

Please post your comments and tell me what you think.  A little argument saying I'm wrong won't hurt.  ;)

Kraken just adopted Dash (http://blog.kraken.com/)
There has been some activity in dash lately...yesterday the number of masternodes was 4271 and now it is 4146 (data from http://178.254.23.111/~pub/masternode_count.png ).
There was a sell wall today on poloniex of 5k DASH at 0.06099999 that intimidated me from buying in but 5 mins ago got cancelled and I think its too late for me to buy in now.

They put in those large sell walls to influence peoples perceptions, thats a common trick.  Also done on real stock books is gaming the order book in a similar way so I guess its a legitimate tactic.  Poloniex allows margin trading so I guess they are just trying to herd the cattle, maybe buying the Dash at a lower price then might be otherwise?

I wouldn't waste time looking at the orderbook if I were you.

Just a little update.  The huge 'winners' Dash, ETH and Monero are looking riper and riper for shorting (charts coming later) while ETC is breaking out.  A lot of people say that the launch of Silbert's 10M USD private fund for ETC was responsible for this.  In all honesty I have no idea why but it would be nice if somebody would give us more info about ETC's upswing in the thread.

ETC/BTC:  What I Hate

https://i.imgur.com/coHYx6X.png

This is when I start hating when something is going up in price...  When it starts doing a quick, parabolic rise.  I tend to get confused in these kinds of situations because:

1.  It means it's the time to start dumping because the price will fall after this.

2.  It means it's time to start getting excited because the price moves going up will be larger.

One of the two above will certainly happen.  The problem is, which one?  Please post your comments.

Are we back in the pre 2014 era where Bitcoin and everything else was rising without rhyme or reason?  Is this finally the cryptocurrency bull market we've all been waiting for?  If it is then place your bets and take the risk.  But I want to know what all you guys think?  I would be happy to hear your analysis.  :)

Wouldn't be surprised to see $100B Bitcoin market cap, but market crash won't surprise too.

Hoping for this:
https://cryptoyoda1338.wordpress.com/2017/05/04/the-golden-age-of-cryptocurrency/

It's really going to get out of hand this new bull market.  I'm pretty sure of that.  And somewhere along the line a big crash is waiting to happen.  That I'm also pretty sure of.

Don't forget that most of these alts and platforms don't solve anything that Bitcoin is already doing.

besides that btc currently has a 100K tx backlog ;)

Which should be fixed sooner or later.  That's the problem with most of us in this forum, we tend to think that Bitcoin is 'dying' because it's 'old' or it 'doesn't have X features'.  What we all fail to realize is Bitcoin is the most secure and most robust cryptocurrency ever.  It will stand the test of time.  I'm not saying other alts won't have their uses, I'm saying BTC will all be still in the middle of it all for a long time.

ETC/BTC:  Here is Where I Usually Get Confused

https://i.imgur.com/MoiVjoG.png

Ok, I have already said I've loaded heavy on ETC.  I want this to be my gamble of the cryptotrading endeavor of my life.  Now look at the chart above and this is when it starts to make me doubt about the whole 'investment'.  The things going on in my head are do I add more or is this the end of the trend and should I cash out?

Gambling too much on one altcoin really makes you question yourself.

If you're worried about your position, it means that it is too large. Generally you shouldn't really care what is happening. Try reducing your position if you're in doubt, and re-enter when you're more confident. These are just general common sense trading rules, not an investment advice  ;)

Vlight, I wasn't really asking for any advice this time around.  I was merely trying to word out and share my thought process with all of you and hopefully get some comments but not advice.  I'm sure a lot of you here also had the same predicament as I'm having right now.  ;D

If you must know, I'm loading the gun and preparing to fire.  I'm gonna put more money in the pot and buy more ETC.  Gamboool!

Which isn't performing that bad, for sure a pump but a double bottom at 9th & 13th may and at least +14% should be doable from today/rightnow by reaching the USD-ATH which is lower than ATH valued in BTC
The bitcoin run comes to the rescue and should get some support by ... that stupid ransomware incident.

ETC/BTC:  Buy, yes.  Buy, yes.  Buy???

https://i.imgur.com/2czru5V.png

As many of you already know, I have bet heavy on ETC.  Overall I like it better than Ethereum due to moral reasons, and no I won't argue about it.  That's just me.  But don't get me wrong I'll still buy ETH of there's an opportunity to profit from it.

Anyway, yeah...  Look at the chart.  Is it an opportunity to buy more, or is it time to sell on the pumps and invest the proceeds in something else (Tezos ;))?

Basically, the question is, is there any more upside for ETC?  Long term yes, potentially there's a great upside, I'm asking for the medium term like 3 - 6 months?

Check the movement on ETC.  A day later I posted my last chart about it in this thread, it started to move back up again.  Are the pump groups following this thread or what?  :D  Just kidding.

Anyway, yup, I guess I got lucky again.  IF the price continues to surge past .005 BTC that is.  Good luck on all your trades.

ETC/BTC:  A Continuation of the Pattern?

https://i.imgur.com/oe7sNbW.png

Let me ask you.  Does this look like a continuation of the pattern or is it finally the end of a good run?  I think it could follow the same pattern, albeit there's higher volatility.  The sudden rise and the sudden dumps show how irrational some traders seem, but the long term trend seems to be still intact.

What do you guys think?

ETC/BTC:  A Little Update

https://i.imgur.com/D6dEURH.png

Well it's looking more and more like it was the right call.  I'm thinking about adding more buy orders but Chris de Rose is publishing an open letter to the SEC in an attempt to get their attention on what's going on primarily in Ethereum and the multimillion ICO's which are mostly ponzis (according to him).  I personally don't care.  I like to gamble in cards, sports, stocks and altcoins.  Why make an attempt to stop gambling using Bitcoins?  Isn't being able to do stuff outside of regulations one of BTC's uses?

With the huge demand for ETH in ICOs, I think ETH may hit $500 this year and $1000 next year. Who can tell? Nobody has predicted the 20x growth since January.

Yeah, but what kind of demand are those ICO's getting?  It's all speculation and it's not gonna last for the long term.  But I do agree in the medium term of all the ICO craze continues, we'll see a higher ETH price.  Hell...  I'll go as far as saying that we'll see a 'flippening'.  Meaning ETH replacing BTC as king in market cap value.

I do think these kind of repeated patterns are very scary. The more they occur, the less you will imagine they will reproduce once more. But in fact, they do!
That's the reason why I don't like them. But honestly, you must buy. you can't ignore the reproductive pattern.

Oh yeah, ICO's lately are also listing ETH as one of the coins the investors can used so we can't take that away from ETH. So I think the future for ETH looks good. Can it sustain its price. I think it will as long as the demand is there. They say that market cap is nothing, but for me it is a indication that a lot of investors are putting there money on ETH and soon can replace btc as market cap king.

As long as there's demand, yes.  But how long will the demand last for these ICO's?  Sooner or later the market will, for sure, get saturated and there won't be enough money getting in to sustain these high prices in the market.  We have seen this happen in all types of markets.  The Dotcom Bubble, the Housing Bubble, the Tulip Mania, etc...  They all end up crashing.

ETC/BTC:  Looking for Something to Buy and Hold When Everything is Overvalued?

https://i.imgur.com/V3Mkx3C.png

First of all, yes this is a shill.  ;)

But in my defense I wouldn't be 'hyping' anything if I didn't think that there's a chance that something is a good investment.  But then again, caveat emptor.  I'm also learning as I go here just like everybody else.

Anyway, ETC...  Notice the pattern repeating itself.  A dip from the highs followed by a period of low volatility (which is a perfect time to get in btw), then followed by an extreme rise to new highs.  This makes me believe that there's a whale accumulating it and he could be coming in again anytime now.  So if you are looking for a good window to get in, this is the time.

Edit:  THIS IS IMPORTANT.  If you want to get in and you have a good amount of BTC to move the price, DON'T USE MARKET ORDERS.  The whales hate it when somebody else disrupts their 'play'.  They'll end up dumping on you making the price lower than what you bought them for.  It's better to make some bids and be patient.

What did I tell you?  There were some traders getting impatient and tried to buy ETC up.  Right after the next day some ETC whale dumped on them. 

It's better to make your bids than buy on market.  Be patient.

Subscribed ;)

Lol.  Thanks.  But do remember that I'm not a professional trader and everything I post here shouldn't be taken as investment and trading advice.  Trading is a very risky endeavor and you could lose your shirt doing this.  So be careful.

LTC/BTC:  Earned Much?  Got Nowhere to Go?  Well Come on Dooown!

https://i.imgur.com/FLG4W1J.png

There are times in a bull market when you've already made some of your profit, have gotten in and out of a few trades and you have no idea what to do next. 

'Do I stay put?  Do I risk more?' 

These are the common questions a person tend to ask him or herself because he/she knows there's something good out there, but the problem is 'what?'  The answer (for me at least) is to switch gears (lower) and look for coins that have been off their peaks but have been stable for a while.  Meaning look for sideways action with low volatility.  It's always good to park some BTC in that kind of action.

Oh look, LTC's doing it.  ;D

Great LTC call there hope you made some money on it yourself. Do you think there are any prosperous coins out there right now? If so what are they? Personally I have pulled the trigger Ardor, HUSH, LSK, Wagerr, and Antshares. Antshares and HUSH shot up something crazy like 100% today and LTC following behind at a nice 33%. Others I am looking at are NEM, Ubiq, SwarmCity, and Iconomi.

I'm not much into those you mentioned, although LSK and NEM are in my watch list but I didn't get into them.  I'm heavy on ETC which I bought months ago at the lows.  Scroll up to see all my write ups about it.  Currently, I also have LTC and XMR. 

As far as cryptocurrencies I might get into, there's nothing.  Maybe MAID...?  But I'm not too sure about that.

I get why you bought into ETC i just don't see how it works in the long run. It's a fork of Ethereum that is worse than some of it's other competitors in the space. I also like LTC and XMR they are my highest holdings at the moment along with SiaCoin. I feel like I am almost too diversified holding a total of 14 cryptos but I like all the projects I am in and more. This space is so demanding of research and time involvement but very rewarding. I would also look into Factom, Gridcoin, and HUSH if you have time. All great projects with good teams and real use cases being applied.

What?  I think you need to do more research.  ETC has a decent development team put in by Charles Hoskinson.  And there are other contributors working on it.  They have recently killed the difficulty bomb and have capped distribution to 230M ETC.

Check out their development to date and their road map.  They actually are on the right track for the long term.  ETH on the other hand is gonna have lots of issues with all those multi million dapps in it.

Oh, FYI, ETH is the fork.  ;)

 
Cool.  

I got a couple of PM's asking if it's the right time to buy LTC.  And my answer to that is I don't know because there's no saying how low the correction will go.  What if I said 'yes' and it falls below to .0012 BTC?  What now?  Do you continue holding, should you sell or should you add more?  The thing to do is watch and wait for periods of low volatility before getting in.

And please ask your question here in the thread and make them public.  We're all newbs here, we need to learn from each other.  ;)

ETC/BTC:  Low Volatility and No Downside?  Get Me Some!

https://i.imgur.com/gQ7JT7Q.png

These are the times I love to buy and add more to hold.  A period of low volatility is the perfect time to place your bets on the bid side, if you're not doing it now maybe it's a good time to.  Don't buy up at market prices tho, just make bids close enough to the price.  It will get hit, just have patience and wait.

And Caveat Emptor.  I suck at this. 

Hey guys, sold some ETC and LTC for BTC to short a couple cryptocurrencies.  I'm still closely following them and I will post the charts later.  

edit:  Shorted XRP.  Will post chart later.

And now also shorted ETH.  Hopefully this will he a fun ride down to double digits, or single?  ;D  But we'll see.

I will posts charts of ETH together with the XRP short later.

There's nothing you can't short to make money now, although the only coin I would not short is LTC.  Nice thread, BTW.  How are you shorting? I've never investigated doing it. Poloniex?  I don't really short stock much less cryptos because the max amount of profit you can make is 100% and it can blow up on you if the trade goes the wrong way, plus the fact in the long run everything goes up due to inflation, shorting for anything other than swing trading is risky, like buying leveraged ETFs which have built in decay... in the crypto space 'only' a 50 or 100% gain is a yawner for me.  I'm not happy unless I have a 3 to 10 bagger.

Shorting would be a good option if you think dollar strength will become apparent here.    I had a quick look at the ETH chart and I think it could find support short term and that reaction will be better data to judge a longer term opinion ETH direction on. 
I do think bitcoin itself seems to give alot of direction to the various alt coins even with ETH, its like a tide coming in and out.

Im not aware of fundamental changes for ETH that'd lead it down so severely

Poloniex has a list of cryptocurrencies allowed for short selling under the margin trading tab.

I chose to short ETH and XRP specifically as both are extremely overvalued due to the recent pump.  Eventually it has to dump and that's what we're seeing.  Another one I'm excited to short is Dash, but it seems to be doing it's own thing right now and surprisingly doing well.  I expected XMR should be doing that tbh, not Dash.

And if 50% and 100% gains are a 'yawner' for you then it means you don't put enough money in it or your bankroll is small.

ETC/BTC:  Sorry, I Short Now

https://i.imgur.com/JYvpOnw.png

A couple of months ago, I had the idea that I would hold ETC for the super long term like what I'm doing with BTC, LTC and XMR right now.  But dunno, sometimes the act of doing a trade (be it a long or a short) is just much more fun.  So yeah, shorted ETC at that circle drawn on the chart.  Sorry ETC fans.

Out With the Old and In With the New

https://i.imgur.com/vEZ4G1X.png

With my shorts (ETC, ETH, XRP) doing good so far, I haven't been looking into going long since the most sensible thing to do right now is to hold Bitcoin.  BUT, I have been looking into the new tokens that are being traded at Bittrex.  The old ones are taking a beating right now.  Time for some newly listed ones to trend...

The pic above is my new watch list.  Let's see who breaks out first.

FYI, I'm not holding any of them in that pic except for BTC.

Hey guys, some of the coins (or tokens?) in my new watch list are finally moving.  I got in on CFI and BAT and added PTOY in my watch list.  I hope I won't jinx it.  Lol.

But yeah, imo, it could be a good time to place your bids on those two mentioned.  Will post charts later...

CFI/BTC:  It's the Stage of Accumulation, Why Not Accumulate with Them?

https://i.imgur.com/aETbp6a.png

I noticed CFI when there was two days of significant volume with some pumpers trying to pump it as high as the can but only to be stumped probably by whales trying not making it break the slow smooth start of a trend.  I have witnessed it on Bittrex when the price suddenly moves up quickly and I saw two very large sell orders to discourage the pumpers from messing around.

I concluded that some whales must be accumulating this.  So decided to make a couple of small bids and see where it takes me.  I suggest you guys make bids a tad lower than the current price rather than a straight market order for two reasons.

1.  It doesn't upset the traders accumulating it.
2.  You get a better price on your trade.

PTOY/BTC:  Possibly a Good Time to Buy

https://i.imgur.com/52PxWy2.png

No idea why and no idea how, but PTOY could be starting a trend going up.  So start bidding now and enjoy the ride and get a chance to make some BTC.

Edit:  I have heard some rumors that PTOY is having some sort of partnership with Dash.  But whatever, just concentrate on the price and have an exit plan in place.  Everything else is just noise.

I just noticed BAT is starting to look like a good buy just right about now.  I would start bidding now if I were at home in front of my laptop right now.  :(

I will post a chart later as soon as I get home.  I hope there's some left at this level by then.

First of all very helpful thread mate, keep it up! I'm kinda new to trading so i like this kind of threads with info. I will check here time to time learn from the analysis , thank you.  :)

Looks like the whole market isn't good at the moment.  Everything that I though is a break out were all fake outs.  I'm holding everything in Bitcoin right now, except for a few long term alts that I have been holding.

ARDR/BTC:  Gamble Gamble?  Yes, But Put a Stop Loss.

https://i.imgur.com/SKB4Jw2.png

My first trade in a while.  My fingers were really itching for this one.

Anyway, this could be a breaking out guys, so it might be a good idea to place a small bet (if you want some profit ;)).  ARDR has been going sideways for over a month and that's a good sign.  It means there are no more sellers at the current range willing to dump at these prices.

The slight price increase could be a sign that the bulls are coming back and that things could start getting rosy.

Good luck.

It's nice to see ARDOR still doing ok.  I almost thought that I jinx my trades every time I share them in this thread.  ;D  Speaking of which, did you guys buy ARDOR yesterday?  Just wondering if I have actual readers in this thread.  Sometimes it feels like it's pointless sharing my thoughts here.

Anyway, good luck nevertheless.

anyone here want take a look at LUN chart and NEO chart. LUn can reach 9$ again then get 5% easy. maybe 10%

Been holding since about 3200 sat. Saw the price yesterday and wondered whether it's still a good time to buy more. There's also the monster sell walls on bittrex keeping the price above a certain point (4750 & 5000 sat).

XLM (STR)/BTC:  Breaking Out?

https://i.imgur.com/687SjTD.png

First of all be careful.  Try getting in with a smaller position size than you normally have in the past so you could set a wider stop loss.  I've seen a lot of 'break outs' turn to fake outs and XLM/BTC could be one of them (again).

Anyway things are starting to look good chartwise with Stellar.  I hope this is it and the other alts start to follow.  Another peculiar thing I've noticed is it's not following XRP's price anymore.  The partnership with IBM could finally give Stellar its own mark in crypto.

Jumped in XLM last night, so I'm quite happy to see you posting this. Thanks, much appreciated you sharing this with us!

Hey guys, check out Bcash.  It's poised to breakout anytime now.  If you see it go over .08 BTC or so, it looks like it's gonna be a strong one.  I'll post a chart later as soon as I'm home.

Kinda makes you think if alts start going on a bullish trend again... 

thanks for call - it was super spot on.

Well, at least the Bcash trade is still looking good.  I'm still down the last couple of months from making these small trades.  Keep that stop loss handy folks, and always, ALWAYS follow it.  No ifs, no buts.  That way, you keep your losses small and that makes it easier to get back to even.

After the Bcash trade, let's try LBC/USD this time.  In it's current state in the market, if it goes beyond .00002950 BTC and stays above it, then we could see another strong one here.

But as always, get that stoploss set up and follow it.  Imho, if you're trading a bit large, don't use an auto stoploss.  Always set up a mental stoploss and do it manually.  It's prolly paranoia on my part but I sometimes feel the exchange knows what I'm up to and it's trading against my strategy.  Lol.

Hey guys, it looks like there are a few altcoins starting to break out lately.  And you know that that means...  The others follow and it's time to gamble some Bitcoins and get some action going.

I'll try posting some charts the second I see a (possible) good trade.  

Lol.  I spoke too soon.  One hard lesson I learned is 'You do not hold altcoins during a Bitcoin price rise.  I repeat...'

Well except for the ones you're willing to baghold.  :D

In my case, it's XMR and LTC.

There's been a few which seem to be surviving while Bitcoin continues to run away. Stellar Lumens is doing very well, Waves and Strat making moves, and DeepOnion (I know) is continuing it's rally which sees it break $4.

ETC/BTC:  Accumulating Then a Big Move Up?

https://i.imgur.com/3czVDuK.png

Check the volume from November 2017 until now.  It went up, but the price was just trading in a 'range', and that could mean one thing:  Accumulation.  And you know what that means...  It starts trending up, but it's not quite going in fomo mode yet.  But then other people start noticing it, and that's when the rise starts going parabolic and then fomo sets in.

Don't buy full fomo, buy now.  ;D

It looks like this is it for ETC guys.  Do you think it could break out over .0035 BTC this time or not?  I'm interested in all your opinions, so please drop a line and join the excitment.  ;)

Hey guys, just a heads up on ETC before it breaks .0035 BTC (hopefully).  Don't tell me I didn't tell you.  Lol.  ;D

Crossing my fingers right now... 

Will post the chart later...  Ethereum could be starting to look good to have a short position on.  Its price seems to be becoming weaker and weaker lately...  

Now you all know I don't trade on news, I just observe what the market itself is doing.  But if you have any info or rumors about ETH, please share them in the thread.  ;)

ETH/BTC:  The Weakening?

https://i.imgur.com/XmTFVyj.png

A falling price and volume is an indication that something is gonna get its bubble burst soon and ETH looks like the next good candidate for that.  And what do we do?  We short this b*tch!  Now I have no idea what's going on behind the scenes or what the news/rumors are (please share them itt if you know something), but looking at the price action, it seems like there's something going on...  Or maybe it's just that time when things go up, must come down.  ;D

Looks like Bcash is gonna break out very soon if it goes above .125 BTC or something around that price.  I'm gonna make a chart as soon as I get back to my PC at home...

Nope...  I waited until the last minute when their Satoshi's Vision conference was on.  But no.  I swore Bcash was def pumping at the moment they introduced CSW on stage with that kind of intro.  :D

Satoshi Called on Stage
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lJmg6-HiZ9o&feature=youtu.be&t=5h19m27s

I see a falling wedge for BCH.  Long term the price seems to resemble Bitcoin mostly, not great variation or growth outside its original link or fork.   But thats just my quick rough view

https://i.imgur.com/bVUc47C.png\

I'm listening to this video but not hearing anything radical to change my views exactly.

Did you watch CSW's intro going to the stage?  Rofl.  They must think he's really Satoshi?  I mean I don't think 'just Craig' doesn't really deserve some special attention.