My Speculation Thread (Charts and Analysis Included ;))

[olcaytu2005]

I've been waiting for the price of Factom to rise higher for a while now. Guess I can't keep tying down my funds, I'll short and try my luck with some other coin.

If you are have patiente and won't get liquidated easily, just wait. Factom can go as down as 300, but it will eventually be back up. In a month with m2 release there are definetly oppurtunities for you to close your position without a loss. But ofcourse if don't want to miss other chances, its your choice.

On the other hand, I've been thinking to short dash since it was 197, usually when I do after a drop the price goes back up so I won't touch it even tho the chart tells me to short.

[tokeweed]

I've been waiting for the price of Factom to rise higher for a while now. Guess I can't keep tying down my funds, I'll short and try my luck with some other coin.

If you are have patiente and won't get liquidated easily, just wait. Factom can go as down as 300, but it will eventually be back up. In a month with m2 release there are definetly oppurtunities for you to close your position without a loss. But ofcourse if don't want to miss other chances, its your choice.

On the other hand, I've been thinking to short dash since it was 197, usually when I do after a drop the price goes back up so I won't touch it even tho the chart tells me to short.

I'm curious what was the fundamental reason why you decided to short sell Dash?  As you can see, I make decision mostly be looking at the charts and see where the price momentum goes relative to the volume and Bitcoin's price movements.  So it's purely technical.  But I'm interested in the fundamentals as well and I want to learn how to trade using it.  I was wondering if you could enlighten us by explaining what are the fundamental issues to watch out for when deciding to go long or short.

[olcaytu2005]

I had several indicators. Besides having a bearish look since the early September spike, I also thought btc's long waited and anticipated rise would also force Dash down. But, and a big but here, I like and enjoy day trading. So If I would have shorted at 197, Id probably closing my position as soon as it touched sub 190. I still think dash will decline further to sun 175 until It can go up again.

[olcaytu2005]

Kinda cba to post some graphical analysis though have a look at stellar. Someones been collecting it since September. 2 spikes happened because of that and the total amount of coins in sale decreased everytime. I personally opened a long position at a nice dip. What do you think tokeweed? Have you had a chance to take a look at it?

[tokeweed]

Yeah been watching it but I'm staying away from it.  It's too choppy for my taste as I like smoother charts and low volatility when getting in.  And then when a coin breaks out and volatility increases, your orders are already filled.  That's the idea at least.

But STR (or XLM) does look like it's being accumulated atm.  If you really want to get in and hold long term then buy the dips I guess.  Good luck.

[olcaytu2005]

Yeah been watching it but I'm staying away from it.  It's too choppy for my taste as I like smoother charts and low volatility when getting in.  And then when a coin breaks out and volatility increases, your orders are already filled.  That's the idea at least.

But STR (or XLM) does look like it's being accumulated atm.  If you really want to get in and hold long term then buy the dips I guess.  Good luck.

I like your idea, but sometimes throwing in a few btcs at a coin you can at least forget about to a month can yield good returns. I personally will always reserve my day trading money (not really trading anything since the low volumes these days) but still, just a few btcs.

What happened to your chart analysis btw?

[tokeweed]

DASH/BTC:  Short Signal Confirmed?



Signals to short sell Dash gets stronger and stronger everyday, I wish I was brave enough to act on the trade the minute I first saw it.  But now is a good time as ever to make a short sell as it doesn't look like it might going up anytime soon.  We'll see some spikes from time to time but that would usually be a desperate attempt by some traders to make something happen.


WAVES/BTC:  Breaking Out or Accumulation?



I've been getting a couple of pm's asking if I have something that would advice to go long.  Well here it is, Waves.  I have no idea exactly what's going on with the platform but somebody or some group is loving this one.  Notice the small spikes in volume, that all might be from the same buyer/group of buyers accumulating and supporting it.  The neon green horizontal line is the resistance.  We just saw it break but it went back down.  That could mean a couple of things:  1) That it could be the start of a break out, or 2) It's not.  

But continue following the price movements, or better yet accumulate some for yourself but set a stop loss just in case it goes the other direction.  Good luck.

[vlight]

Waves looks good, agree with your TA. Incent ICO and the upcoming full nodes are probably the reason price has increased.

[tokeweed]

Waves looks good, agree with your TA. Incent ICO and the upcoming full nodes are probably the reason price has increased.

I have no idea what's making Waves go up, but this is weird as it's going up together with BTC.    I have done a little reading about Waves and it seems that the full nodes' release have been long over due.

On the other hand mostly the rest of altcoins are going down.  All the short sell advice in this thread are spot on and the long advice, which is Waves clearly appears to be the right decision as well.  But I would advice to always keep watch of your stoploss.

And keep in mind the scene just changed due to BTC's (solid?) rise.  If you're waiting for a reversal in your favorite altcoin then that might take longer than you might expect.  It's better to be holding BTC right now.

[tokeweed]

Waves:  Is This a Correction or a Reversal?



The first big red day just happened since the fast climb of Waves occurred.  So is this a mere correction or a permanent reversal?  I don't have the answers and it's precisely why I'm asking you on what you guys think.

And what caused the rise anyway?  To answer where this market will go is to answer what caused the rise in the first place.

[sandiman]

Waves:  Is This a Correction or a Reversal?



The first big red day just happened since the fast climb of Waves occurred.  So is this a mere correction or a permanent reversal?  I don't have the answers and it's precisely why I'm asking you on what you guys think.

And what caused the rise anyway?  To answer where this market will go is to answer what caused the rise in the first place.

Reversal, put your chart on 12h time frame, shooting start candlestick + bearish divergence. broke both support of 48k et 51k. to late to make any move, you need to be quicker, falls are always sharp. I did probably one of the best sale point of my entire life, thanks crypto.

[tokeweed]

Reversal, put your chart on 12h time frame, shooting start candlestick + bearish divergence. broke both support of 48k et 51k. to late to make any move, you need to be quicker, falls are always sharp. I did probably one of the best sale point of my entire life, thanks crypto.

Waves is still looking good right now.  With all the tools in TA that you can use, you can still come up with the wrong conclusion some percentage of the time.

Anyway here's a new write up for Dash.

DASH/BTC:  Time to Close your Shorts?



Notice the spike in volume coupled with the sell down to .0105 BTC or so, could that be the final sell down?  If it is then Dash might have hit the bottom for this down trend and might be a start of a new accumulation phase.

On the other hand the current rise in price has no volume behind it so it might just be a technical reaction to BTC/USD when it fell below 700 USD for a bit.  But who's to say?  Sometimes it's a sign that the bear is gone and it's time to accumulate.

What do you guys think?

[tokeweed]

XMR/BTC:  Exhibiting the Same Pattern as Dash



Here's another one.  The same pattern as Dash in the post above.  This could very may well be a sign that the bearish trend is starting to end across some altcoins and a following accumulation phase begins.  I'm waiting for ETH, FCT and some of the rest like ETC to show the same pattern and I think it would be time to start shopping for alts to buy and wait for the bull run.

I would appreciate all your comments and thoughts.  GLGT.

[sandiman]

you'll see those pattern in most of altcoin ... panic sell to catch an hypothetical bitcoin bull run. Moreover, I did not sell all my waves, just hedged my position.

[Dassi]

That chart is a bull trap, the coin is dumping. Its pump phase is over for now - till maybe next month or early next year.

[tokeweed]

That chart is a bull trap, the coin is dumping. Its pump phase is over for now - till maybe next month or early next year.

I'm aware that the pump is over.  But the question is if it's the beginning of another accumulation phase that would be a preparation for the next pump.  The funny thing is most people would see the accumulation phase as a sign that the coin is already dead.

[tokeweed]

NXT/BTC:  Has the Accumulation Phase Begun?



Here's what most traders of cryptocurrencies want to keep quiet about:  When their favorite coins/tokens are in a phase of accumulation.  

They don't want it to be prematurely pumped before they have filled their bags as they want to gain the maximum profit (in BTC) possible that they can take from the market.  As for the chart, please notice the last red spikes in volume.  Imho, that's the last of the big sell downs and it's highly possible that there will be none as large as that anymore.  So it's probably safe to start accumulating some NXT now.

Please comment below.  

[jacafbiz]

NXT/BTC:  Has the Accumulation Phase Begun?



Here's what most traders of cryptocurrencies want to keep quiet about:  When their favorite coins/tokens are in a phase of accumulation.  

They don't want it to be prematurely pumped before they have filled their bags as they want to gain the maximum profit (in BTC) possible that they can take from the market.  As for the chart, please notice the last red spikes in volume.  Imho, that's the last of the big sell downs and it's highly possible that there will be none as large as that anymore.  So it's probably safe to start accumulating some NXT now.

Please comment below.  

I'm not that good with technical chart analysis but I have been following you for sometime and you have been really helpful with your projection, concerning NXT, I think the price will hit around 500 - 600 sat there is nothing to drive the price up now until next snapshot.

[sandiman]

NXT/BTC:  Has the Accumulation Phase Begun?

[img]https://i.imgur.com/fyKZ5cx.png[/img

Here's what most traders of cryptocurrencies want to keep quiet about:  When their favorite coins/tokens are in a phase of accumulation.  

They don't want it to be prematurely pumped before they have filled their bags as they want to gain the maximum profit (in BTC) possible that they can take from the market.  As for the chart, please notice the last red spikes in volume.  Imho, that's the last of the big sell downs and it's highly possible that there will be none as large as that anymore.  So it's probably safe to start accumulating some NXT now.

Please comment below.  

I am personnaly in, and watching the comment below of jacafbiz makes me even more bullish. but I don't have crystal ball, only the future will tell.

EDIT: but still monitoring that closely, don't want to get affected by a bitcoin bullrun.

[tokeweed]

NXT/BTC:  Has the Accumulation Phase Begun?

[img]https://i.imgur.com/fyKZ5cx.png[/img

Here's what most traders of cryptocurrencies want to keep quiet about:  When their favorite coins/tokens are in a phase of accumulation.  

They don't want it to be prematurely pumped before they have filled their bags as they want to gain the maximum profit (in BTC) possible that they can take from the market.  As for the chart, please notice the last red spikes in volume.  Imho, that's the last of the big sell downs and it's highly possible that there will be none as large as that anymore.  So it's probably safe to start accumulating some NXT now.

Please comment below.  

I am personnaly in, and watching the comment below of jacafbiz makes me even more bullish. but I don't have crystal ball, only the future will tell.

EDIT: but still monitoring that closely, don't want to get affected by a bitcoin bullrun.

Yeah that's the thing.  The equation has changed because BTC is still rising to who knows how high.  So it might be better to hold everything in BTC right now or short sell some altcoins as mentioned in this thread.  REP/BTC is looking more and more ripe for the picking for shorting, I will keep monitoring it and will do an analysis if need me.  GL.