My Speculation Thread (Charts and Analysis Included ;))

[tokeweed]

ETH/BTC:  The Classic Bull Trap



Now I might make a fool out myself here by posting this, as this could be a last ditch attempt for the whales behind Ethereum to manipulate the price up.  It may even be an exit scam as we have all seen that the platform is in dire straits.

But anyway, look at the chart without any 'filters' and 'shades' of technical indicators that tend to make one situation look subjectively like another.  That looks a lot like a classic Bull Trap or what some would say a Dead Cat Bounce.  Don't fall for it.  If anything, it's an opportunity to get some shorts here and there.  But be careful, like I mentioned this could also be a last ditch attempt for the whales to moon this.

this is exactly why we are here, fomo short had to stop. eth may have capitulated, only the future will tell us.

I totally agree with you that only the future can definitely tell us where this all is going.  But we have seen this happen again and again before.  And it usually ends how it usually ends.  It goes back to how it was trending as before because it was simply a bull trap in the first place.

Please note that I said 'usually' as reversals also tend to happen a certain amount.

[daneranon89]

ETH/BTC:  The Classic Bull Trap



Now I might make a fool out myself here by posting this, as this could be a last ditch attempt for the whales behind Ethereum to manipulate the price up.  It may even be an exit scam as we have all seen that the platform is in dire straits.

But anyway, look at the chart without any 'filters' and 'shades' of technical indicators that tend to make one situation look subjectively like another.  That looks a lot like a classic Bull Trap or what some would say a Dead Cat Bounce.  Don't fall for it.  If anything, it's an opportunity to get some shorts here and there.  But be careful, like I mentioned this could also be a last ditch attempt for the whales to moon this.

this is exactly why we are here, fomo short had to stop. eth may have capitulated, only the future will tell us.

I totally agree with you that only the future can definitely tell us where this all is going.  But we have seen this happen again and again before.  And it usually ends how it usually ends.  It goes back to how it was trending as before because it was simply a bull trap in the first place.

Please note that I said 'usually' as reversals also tend to happen a certain amount.

This is kind of tempting me to add ETH to my portfolio. But Right now, it seems best to wait and see if ETH will corrects more in the coming days. What do you have to say about Stellar? It looks like Stellar is all set for a mega bull run and it has already started. Could you post your thoughts on it?

[tokeweed]

That's up to you if you wanna get into ETH.  Imho it's still too risky to buy it.  I'd rather go long on ETC as it might be starting to become more stable lately.

On STR, I have no idea.  I personally tend to stay away when an altcoin becomes too volatile.  Also keep in mind that I don't believe in making predictions in the market.  All we can do is follow the price.

[sandiman]

That's up to you if you wanna get into ETH.  Imho it's still too risky to buy it.  I'd rather go long on ETC as it might starting to become more stable lately.

On STR, I have no idea.  I personally tend to stay away when an altcoin becomes too volatile.  Also keep in mind that I don't believe in making predictions in the market.  All we can do is follow the price.

If there is absolutly no predictive power in technical analysis, we are in weither:

- weak efficiency hypothesis, all information endogeneous to the price is already priced in, no point in watching the chart.
- strong efficiency hypothesis, all information available is already perfectly priced in, market follows a random walk, no point in looking at chart pattern's again.

Thus, if all you can do is follow the price, close the chart.

[tokeweed]

Nah.  That's EMH you're talking about.  I follow my own philosophy in trading.  I have accepted the fact that I can't predict the market perfectly, because who really can right?  All I do is follow the price and make my own rules in trading which focuses more on sizing my trades, measuring volatility and knowing when to buy or sell before I even make the trade.  I make my analysis public but I don't spoon feed you all the info.  It should be a learning process for everyone.

[sandiman]

Nah.  That's EMH you're talking about.  I follow my own philosophy in trading.  I have accepted the fact that I can't predict the market perfectly, because who really can right?  All I do is follow the price and make my own rules in trading which focuses more on sizing my trades, measuring volatility and knowing when to buy or sell before I even make the trade.  I make my analysis public but I don't spoon feed you all the info.  It should be a learning process for everyone.

I just told you that there is no point in analysing the chart if you don't believe in technical analysis... you're just loosing time. We are speaking about empirical studies in place since the 60s, I personally think that this weight a bit more than our personal biased opinion.

[tokeweed]

Nah.  That's EMH you're talking about.  I follow my own philosophy in trading.  I have accepted the fact that I can't predict the market perfectly, because who really can right?  All I do is follow the price and make my own rules in trading which focuses more on sizing my trades, measuring volatility and knowing when to buy or sell before I even make the trade.  I make my analysis public but I don't spoon feed you all the info.  It should be a learning process for everyone.

I just told you that there is no point in analysing the chart if you don't believe in technical analysis... you're just loosing time. We are speaking about empirical studies in place since the 60s, I personally think that this weight a bit more than our personal biased opinion.

Who are you to tell me that there's no point and how I trade?  You're just like me, an amateur trader who's trying to learn and to earn.  If you can earn.  If you were really a 'pro' then you wouldn't be wasting your time in this forum.  You also have a sig campaign like me, I would like to add.

My strategy has been working out for me so far.  If you can teach me on your way of how to trade, then we can start discussing it in private or public if you want.

[olcaytu2005]

It is how it is, sadly. If I make 100 predictions, at least 80 of them turns out right but I end up buying only 30 of those. I also end up buying at least 10 of the failed predictions. If you are not a whale you are not a 'pro' trader.  This market is even more manipulated than penny stock markets. Even whales lose time to time.

[housebtc]

So your prediction for Eth is that the downward trend will continue for some time, but looking at the chart the price seems stable around $8 for some days now

[sandiman]

Nah.  That's EMH you're talking about.  I follow my own philosophy in trading.  I have accepted the fact that I can't predict the market perfectly, because who really can right?  All I do is follow the price and make my own rules in trading which focuses more on sizing my trades, measuring volatility and knowing when to buy or sell before I even make the trade.  I make my analysis public but I don't spoon feed you all the info.  It should be a learning process for everyone.

I just told you that there is no point in analysing the chart if you don't believe in technical analysis... you're just loosing time. We are speaking about empirical studies in place since the 60s, I personally think that this weight a bit more than our personal biased opinion.

Who are you to tell me that there's no point and how I trade?  You're just like me, an amateur trader who's trying to learn and to earn.  If you can earn.  If you were really a 'pro' then you wouldn't be wasting your time in this forum.  You also have a sig campaign like me, I would like to add.

My strategy has been working out for me so far.  If you can teach me on your way of how to trade, then we can start discussing it in private or public if you want.

I am not critisizing the way you trade but just telling you that what you are saying is contradictory per se.

[tokeweed]

It may sound contradictory to you but it's really not.  I refuse to believe that people in general can make perfect predictions in the market for a different reason, not the EMH reason which assumes everyone participating in the market is rational.

The reason why I don't believe people can't predict the market is because, who can?  But does that mean I shouldn't follow the price of something to make a trade?  Should I trade blind by just buying and then holding?  Of course not.  My belief is psychology plays a role in the market and that is reflected on the price.

[tokeweed]

ETC/BTC:  Happy Days Ahead?



I have two simple questions for the experts in this forum.  Is this a break out and a start of an uptrend?  And will this uptrend be as huge as ETH's was months ago?

Please comment below and tell us what you think.

[sandiman]

ETC/BTC:  Happy Days Ahead?



I have two simple questions for the experts in this forum.  Is this a break out and a start of an uptrend?  And will this uptrend be as huge as ETH's was months ago?

Please comment below and tell us what you think.

smart money is in, now let the dumb money join them at the top (IMO further up)

[BitcoinHodler]

ETC/BTC:  Happy Days Ahead?



I have two simple questions for the experts in this forum.  Is this a break out and a start of an uptrend?  And will this uptrend be as huge as ETH's was months ago?

Please comment below and tell us what you think.

smart money is in, now let the dumb money join them at the top (IMO further up)

haha, that is true.
but i have been doing some experiments lately (not a long time) with trading during these pumps. and my strategy is to get in during th rise preferably before the top and do some short trades on the way up for some profit, and i have been successful so far, although the length of the time that i am doing this is not long enough to say anything certain about this method but i am happy so far with it.

[sandiman]

ETC/BTC:  Happy Days Ahead?



I have two simple questions for the experts in this forum.  Is this a break out and a start of an uptrend?  And will this uptrend be as huge as ETH's was months ago?

Please comment below and tell us what you think.

smart money is in, now let the dumb money join them at the top (IMO further up)

haha, that is true.
but i have been doing some experiments lately (not a long time) with trading during these pumps. and my strategy is to get in during th rise preferably before the top and do some short trades on the way up for some profit, and i have been successful so far, although the length of the time that i am doing this is not long enough to say anything certain about this method but i am happy so far with it.

you've been shorting overall weaknesses in the alt market how it has to be done (better to wait until it hits resistance to add to short). but market when market will be bullish, you'll lose your profits and more.

[tokeweed]

ETC/BTC:  Happy Days Ahead?

I have two simple questions for the experts in this forum.  Is this a break out and a start of an uptrend?  And will this uptrend be as huge as ETH's was months ago?

Please comment below and tell us what you think.

smart money is in, now let the dumb money join them at the top (IMO further up)

Who are you referring to when you say 'smart money'?  Is it the whales like Barry Silbert (who's a known ETC supporter)?  Is it the regular big funded traders in Poloniex?  I would think there are only several of them, maybe even less.

[sandiman]

ETC/BTC:  Happy Days Ahead?

I have two simple questions for the experts in this forum.  Is this a break out and a start of an uptrend?  And will this uptrend be as huge as ETH's was months ago?

Please comment below and tell us what you think.

smart money is in, now let the dumb money join them at the top (IMO further up)

Who are you referring to when you say 'smart money'?  Is it the whales like Barry Silbert (who's a known ETC supporter)?  Is it the regular big funded traders in Poloniex?  I would think there are only several of them, maybe even less.

the "guys" that actually makes money. they are also call whales, composite man, manipulator,... it's just an image, it's better to be on there side when trading.

[shanem]

ETC seems to be a bull trap. The hype on both ETH and ETC are gone and some whales have already cashed out on ETH. It would be pointless to buy ETH at such high
price when the ETH hype is over. I would prefer to wait until ETC touches 10k satoshi before I would consider buying.

[virasog]

ETC seems to be a bull trap. The hype on both ETH and ETC are gone and some whales have already cashed out on ETH. It would be pointless to buy ETH at such high
price when the ETH hype is over. I would prefer to wait until ETC touches 10k satoshi before I would consider buying.

The whole pump was based on the news/rumors that ETC will look to cap the total supply of the coins in 2017. This will make it limited in supply and they are trying to roll out 100 Dapps which is not easy to do. So all these must have caused the traders to pump up ETC.

[tokeweed]

ETC seems to be a bull trap. The hype on both ETH and ETC are gone and some whales have already cashed out on ETH. It would be pointless to buy ETH at such high
price when the ETH hype is over. I would prefer to wait until ETC touches 10k satoshi before I would consider buying.

The whole pump was based on the news/rumors that ETC will look to cap the total supply of the coins in 2017. This will make it limited in supply and they are trying to roll out 100 Dapps which is not easy to do. So all these must have caused the traders to pump up ETC.

The capping of ETC's coin supply is not a rumor, it's true.  If this is truly a bull trap remains to be seen, as we could be witnessing a start of a large trend coming.  I base this assessment on the increasing hashing power of ETC.  The miners from ETH could be pointing their rigs to ETC now because Vitalik seems motivated in switching to POS.