Bitcoin Forum

Well, if a user's activity is a measure of being active on the forum (at least, that's what it is supposed to show), am I currently the top Hero member? So does anyone know of a Hero member with activity higher than or equal to mine presently (just curious)? I'm at 980 as of today...

I will lock this thread when (if) I become a Legendary member myself

Active in the sense that you're at 980 activity but you've also been really active judging by your post count?
Does it piss you off that some people can get Legendary status a lot sooner than you?

I'm at 756 activity, it will be 770 tomorrow. I know that Legendary status is between 775 - 1030. It will annoy me if I'm still a Hero in the early 1000's & I see lots of 775-800's who get there before me :D

Post count is irrelevant. I mean activity as it is shown above the avatar, and I wonder if there are other Hero members sticking around who have their current activity at about or above (lol) 1,000. In fact, I don't feel like I'm mightly pissed off really, rather curious if I make it through one thousand points...

Anyone willing to bet? I bet 0.001 BTC, or 1 mBTC,  that I will make it (as a Hero member)

You might beat these guys:


(times at which Hero Members hit Legendary, taken from the thread Legendary one day? (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1226681.msg12813441#msg12813441))

And the graph of your chances hitting Legendary.

https://i.imgur.com/XYzBfm9.png

It's a 28% chance. For you, anyway.

---

I'm willing to take your bet that you will hit it. Provided I only have to pay 0.00038889 BTC to keep the house edge as close to 0 as possible ;)

I'll take that +EV bet as well, if your still interested after seeing the graph of your chance.

Looks like mprep and mcb1221 have been monumentally unlucky

It seems that it is not possible to get activity above 1022 without becoming Legendary, at least, for me. The next activity number would be 1036 which is above 1030, i.e. beyond the upper limit of the range within which you can become a Legendary member (775-1030)

Okay, let's discuss the gory details

I suggest the following terms. Namely, if I become Legendary at 994 (my next activity value), you win and I owe you 0.001 BTC. If you still see me as a Hero member at any activity above 1,000 (i.e. 1008), then you lose and you owe me 0.001 BTC. If I turn into a Legendary member exactly at 1008 (980+14+14), that should be considered a draw, and no one owes anything to anyone. I'm not very familiar with betting mathematics, so you are free to change the bet size to compensate for the "house edge" if there is any

They made me wait right until the bitter end for my enthronement. They'll get theirs. Oh yes they will.

Let's try to keep it simple, then.

There's a 14/36 chance to hit Legendary at 994.
There's a 14/22 chance to hit Legendary at 1008.

This means the chance to not hit Legendary at 1008 is 22/36 * 8/22 or 11/18*4/11 which is equal to 2/9. (22.222...%)
The chance to hit Legendary at 994 is 14/36, or 7/18 (38.888...%)
The chance to hit Legendary at 1008 is 22/36 * 14/22, or also 7/18 (38.888...%)

This all adds up to 14/18 + 4/18 = 1, obviously

Now for the betting amounts at 0% house edge:

Suppose we're talking in terms of mBTC, and n is our bet amount.


So, 7/18 - 2n/9 = 0 for 0% edge

Unfortunately for deisik, with these odds, this would be greatly in our favor, even if we were betting in a 1:1 ratio.

To make it fair:


We would have to wager 1.75 mBTC for every 1 mBTC you wager to make it fair. Math!



(provided the math checks out, which I'm pretty sure it does)

---

But hey, if you want to gamble with a huge house edge, I'm down to be that house!

So, do you agree to wager 1.75 mBTC against me wagering 1.0 mBTC on the terms that I brought forth in my previous post? That is, I wager 1 mBTC that I don't become a Legendary member at 994, you wager 1.75 mBTC that I do at that activity?

If I become Legendary at 1,008, that would be a draw

Yep, that's good with me! 0 ev is always better than gambling at -ev.

Is it a deal?

I agree with the deal. To further validate this:

Yes.
Oui.
Si.
Ja.
Da.
Iva.
etc.

So be it! Here (http://i68.tinypic.com/29fpgfq.jpg)'s the snapshot to make the parties involved follow the conditions agreed. In fact, I will be happy to pay you 1 mBTC if I become a Legendary member tomorrow (or whenever the next activity increase should happen). But I wouldn't mind to earn something either if I have to make it till "the bitter end for my enthronement", lol...

Anyone else willing to strike a bet?

There are two of us with Activity 910 - I expect the other person will become legendary earlier than myself due to their posting double the number of posts in a shorter period of time.

I also expect I will become legendary around the 22nd / 23rd of November 2016. ( Which would be activity 966 )

It isn't possible for you to achieve, however it is possible for a member to be Hero with >1022 Activity providing some very specific qualities are present in a member.
To begin, the member must be extremely unlucky to have not reached Legendary in this time. I'm sure that some members here had that quality, however they did not have the next or did not remain active enough to reach it.
Secondly, the account must have a significant amount of potential activity. This means that not enough posts were made in a large number of activity periods (I.E their post count is less than or equal to their activity) allowing them to upgrade their activity as they post.
If this is the case, the member will be able to post directly up to their Legendary quota without it being skipped over by a full activity period (As seen with Lincoln6Echo).

Lol.  Glad you made it without going even more insane than you are.

OP, I swear I've never seen you post here and it definitely seems like I should have by now.  What sections are you in, mostly?  Anywhos, I would bet that you're not going to be legendary tomorrow, but I wouldn't take the other side of that bet.  You're probably gonna have to wait and wait and wait.

Didn't Amph get legendary like really early?

That's pretty good logic that's over looked. Instead of having one chance out of 14 days, you get one chance to every time you post. So it does place those prolific posters like the OP at a disadvantage.

You can check his activity and figure out why you never seen him post  ;D https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=156665;sa=statPanel

Seek and ye shall find. You may want to look through my post history to get a clue, I don't mind. There is even a relatively small group of "followers" (lol) who are closely tracking my posts and even religiously studying what I had written years ago...

I don't mind either


You don't need brains if you have luck at your side

Not really.I've barely seen you posting or active on the forum.It's from the past 2 months I think I started noticing some of your posts.Activity points can be farmed,no big deal.

Activity doesn't prove shit.Lutpin is one of the highly active hero members who "actually" contributes to something good along with achow aka knightdk.


Still don't understand why would you think it should matter to anyone else in the forum ? Being legendary also "doesn't mean jack" go to auctions and see the number of legendary accounts being sold.

If I was you,I'd lock this thread right away.

Wow! I'd like to know what made you post here in the first place if it didn't matter anything to anyone in the forum. But the thread is essentially not about becoming Legendary. I'm just curious if I'm currently a Hero member with the highest activity value (hoping to meet someone walking in the same shoes). On the other hand, if you had read the first page, you would have known that I even stroke a bet on me hitting (or missing) a Legendary member status soon. As you can see, at least some people do care exactly for that...

But you can try to monetize your claims as well, you're welcome

I have to admit I'm looking forward to becoming a Legendary Member, it'll be good to look down on & disregard all those pauper Senior & Hero's (joke).

deisik - It's activity upgrade today, hopefully you could become a Legendary Member later on today.

If users didn't want to get promoted to a higher rank, there wouldn't be any such ranks at all. In this way, it is human and normal to feel like that. The 30 pages (and counting) of the Legendary One Day (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1226681.0) thread stockpiled during the last year speak louder than any words. And I gather as well that a higher rank account costs more than a lower one on average. So the rank does matter after all...


I hope for that too, but now I won't be quite disappointed if I don't

I don't think the amount of posts really matter to make someone legendary. I don't know how people get rank up. I think admins created a bot or coded this feature and it automatically rank accounts up..
I've become legendary with only 805 Activity and my posts was also 805(wasn't have any extra posts. don't you think it should be noted in the history and list of bitcointalk's records and rare things?) so the number of higher posts won't make him legendary.

You're correct. It doesn't matter whether how many posts a user makes during one activity period, they can only get a maximum of 14 activity (if all potential activity is used up).
I also expect that rank-ups are hard-coded into the system, so BTCT doesn't use a bot or anything similar.

It's a cool thing to note, but not really that rare. It simply meant that you didn't use up all of your activity in some periods, giving you some potential activity (which then made your activity be directly influenced by your post count, causing them to be the same).

Activity just got increased, but I'm still a Hero member, now at 994 points for another two weeks. I have a gut feeling that I will turn into Legendary exactly at 1,008 points. So my bet will evidently end up in a draw. But it is still somewhat better than making it till "the bitter end"...

Now I stake 0.001 BTC (1.0 mBTC) that I will hit it next time

Ah that makes sense,  and I apologize for my ignorance and/or laziness.

Damn they're making you wait until the bitter end. I'm on 770 now so technically I'm finally eligible at the next activity add up although obviously it'll take a lot longer.

I guess it's time to pay. As you can see, I'm still a Hero Member and my activity is at 1,008 points at the moment. But what did you really hope for? My BTC addy is in my profile page...

Here (http://s017.radikal.ru/i403/1610/43/94fa1ca1e832.jpg)'s the snapshot for future reference


I expected something like that from the very beginning when the Legendary rank had first been introduced, so I'm not surprised really. If I made it past the 1030 limit still as a Hero member, that would likely surprise me somewhat...

Though there’s always the next wedding

deisik you are still a Hero Member at 1008 activity points, you are guaranteed to be Legendary within 4 weeks though so relax.

I've only just reached 784 (over 775) and I am still a Hero. Hopefully I make Legendary in the next activity rank up.

For anyone that cares, here's the transaction to show proof of payment: https://blockchain.info/tx/2f0a03c651652f4be8fa7f2eb5bf73f4de21087d38f819b2b660e6c0e1026edb

And here's a signed message stating that I own the address (12MBby3dZy11ZhUUZkM1L25kTtYeSBQeJB)

Yeah, I don't think its a good metric for measuring its namesake.

You must be really very disappointed buddy as despite crossing 1000 activities point you still not legendary but isn't it a matter of time before you become one.So do not be sad and enjoy spending your time here

I confirm receiving the payment. But you wagered 1.75 mBTC (which you yourself calculated as a fair bet), though paid only 1 mBTC actually. According to your verified message, you agreed to wager 1.75 mBTC against me...

http://s020.radikal.ru/i722/1610/b1/4c2e05a804b2.jpg

So what about the remaining amount?

Honestly speaking, there is no point into getting disappointed over not reaching Legendary member yet. Especially because of the fact that there are no real benefits to it. Yes, some signature campaigns pay Legendary members slightly more, but it's peanuts. Also, not yet achieving such states, gives you something to look forward to. Especially because of the fact that after Legendary there is nothing anymore. It's an empty road that you continue to walk without end in sight.

Edit;


I like that one. :D

I'm not very much disappointed now, since I won the bet, after all. Though I really hoped that I would lose and become Legendary sooner, but it didn't work out, lol. It is not so much about being up-ranked per se as being not lucky enough to get there earlier (read later than others). On the other hand, this alone makes you tough as well as search for workarounds and insurances of sorts...

Tough times never last, but tough people do


Many a little makes a mickle

I personally forgot about the .75. I was falsely remembering the week prior that I needed to check your activity on Tuesday to see if I had to pay 1 mBTC. No worries though: I'll pay by tonight if no personal problems arise. After all, I don't want to have anything happen over less than a dollar.

EDIT:

18de1c361bcd5025f4c4eef2ba08f253b5550a31db7ceaa0c9243250c74bfac4 is the transaction of the remaining 0.00075.