Aren't I the most active user among Hero members here?

[deisik]

Well, if a user's activity is a measure of being active on the forum (at least, that's what it is supposed to show), am I currently the top Hero member? So does anyone know of a Hero member with activity higher than or equal to mine presently (just curious)? I'm at 980 as of today...

I will lock this thread when (if) I become a Legendary member myself

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Active in the sense that you're at 980 activity but you've also been really active judging by your post count?
Does it piss you off that some people can get Legendary status a lot sooner than you?

I'm at 756 activity, it will be 770 tomorrow. I know that Legendary status is between 775 - 1030. It will annoy me if I'm still a Hero in the early 1000's & I see lots of 775-800's who get there before me

[deisik]

Active in the sense that you're at 980 activity but you've also been really active judging by your post count?
Does it piss you off that some people can get Legendary status a lot sooner than you?

Post count is irrelevant. I mean activity as it is shown above the avatar, and I wonder if there are other Hero members sticking around who have their current activity at about or above (lol) 1,000. In fact, I don't feel like I'm mightly pissed off really, rather curious if I make it through one thousand points...

Anyone willing to bet? I bet 0.001 BTC, or 1 mBTC,  that I will make it (as a Hero member)

[actmyname]

Active in the sense that you're at 980 activity but you've also been really active judging by your post count?
Does it piss you off that some people can get Legendary status a lot sooner than you?

Post count is irrelevant. I mean activity as it is shown above the avatar, and I wonder if there are other Hero members sticking around who have their current activity at about or above (lol) 1,000. In fact, I don't feel like I'm mightly pissed off really, rather curious if I make it through one thousand points...

Anyone willing to bet? I bet 0.001 BTC, or 1 mBTC,  that I will make it (as a Hero member)

You might beat these guys:

Code:

qwk			 994	 hit it
Lauda			 994	 hit it
defaced			1008	 hit it
Lincoln6Echo		1013	 hit it
mprep			1022	 hit it
mcb1221 		1022	 hit it

(times at which Hero Members hit Legendary, taken from the thread Legendary one day?)

And the graph of your chances hitting Legendary.



It's a 28% chance. For you, anyway.


I'm willing to take your bet that you will hit it. Provided I only have to pay 0.00038889 BTC to keep the house edge as close to 0 as possible

[DarkStar_]

Anyone willing to bet? I bet 0.001 BTC, or 1 mBTC,  that I will make it (as a Hero member)

I'll take that +EV bet as well, if your still interested after seeing the graph of your chance.

[deisik]

Active in the sense that you're at 980 activity but you've also been really active judging by your post count?
Does it piss you off that some people can get Legendary status a lot sooner than you?

Post count is irrelevant. I mean activity as it is shown above the avatar, and I wonder if there are other Hero members sticking around who have their current activity at about or above (lol) 1,000. In fact, I don't feel like I'm mightly pissed off really, rather curious if I make it through one thousand points...

Anyone willing to bet? I bet 0.001 BTC, or 1 mBTC,  that I will make it (as a Hero member)

You might beat these guys:

Code:

qwk			 994	 hit it
Lauda			 994	 hit it
defaced			1008	 hit it
Lincoln6Echo		1013	 hit it
mprep			1022	 hit it
mcb1221 		1022	 hit it

(times at which Hero Members hit Legendary, taken from the thread Legendary one day?)

Looks like mprep and mcb1221 have been monumentally unlucky

It seems that it is not possible to get activity above 1022 without becoming Legendary, at least, for me. The next activity number would be 1036 which is above 1030, i.e. beyond the upper limit of the range within which you can become a Legendary member (775-1030)

[deisik]

I'm willing to take your bet that you will hit it. Provided I only have to pay 0.00038889 BTC to keep the house edge as close to 0 as possible

Anyone willing to bet? I bet 0.001 BTC, or 1 mBTC,  that I will make it (as a Hero member)

I'll take that +EV bet as well, if your still interested after seeing the graph of your chance.

Okay, let's discuss the gory details

I suggest the following terms. Namely, if I become Legendary at 994 (my next activity value), you win and I owe you 0.001 BTC. If you still see me as a Hero member at any activity above 1,000 (i.e. 1008), then you lose and you owe me 0.001 BTC. If I turn into a Legendary member exactly at 1008 (980+14+14), that should be considered a draw, and no one owes anything to anyone. I'm not very familiar with betting mathematics, so you are free to change the bet size to compensate for the "house edge" if there is any

[gentlemand]

They made me wait right until the bitter end for my enthronement. They'll get theirs. Oh yes they will.

[actmyname]

Okay, let's discuss the gory details

I suggest the following terms. Namely, if I become Legendary at 994 (my next activity value), you win and I owe you 0.001 BTC. If you still see me as a Hero member at any activity above 1,000 (i.e. 1008), then you lose and you owe me 0.001 BTC. If I turn into a Legendary member exactly at 1008 (980+14+14), that should be considered a draw, and no one owes anything to anyone. I'm not very familiar with betting mathematics, so you are free to change the bet size to compensate for the "house edge" if there is any

Let's try to keep it simple, then.

There's a 14/36 chance to hit Legendary at 994.
There's a 14/22 chance to hit Legendary at 1008.

This means the chance to not hit Legendary at 1008 is 22/36 * 8/22 or 11/18*4/11 which is equal to 2/9. (22.222...%)
The chance to hit Legendary at 994 is 14/36, or 7/18 (38.888...%)
The chance to hit Legendary at 1008 is 22/36 * 14/22, or also 7/18 (38.888...%)

This all adds up to 14/18 + 4/18 = 1, obviously

Now for the betting amounts at 0% house edge:

Suppose we're talking in terms of mBTC, and n is our bet amount.

Code:

We will have the profit {

7/18*1 - hitting legendary at 994
7/18*0 - hitting legendary at 1008
-2/9*n - not hitting legendary at 1008 

So, 7/18 - 2n/9 = 0 for 0% edge

Unfortunately for deisik, with these odds, this would be greatly in our favor, even if we were betting in a 1:1 ratio.

To make it fair:

Code:

7/18 = 2n/9
7 = 4n

n = 1.75

We would have to wager 1.75 mBTC for every 1 mBTC you wager to make it fair. Math!



(provided the math checks out, which I'm pretty sure it does)


But hey, if you want to gamble with a huge house edge, I'm down to be that house!

[deisik]

[...]

We would have to wager 1.75 mBTC for every 1 mBTC you wager to make it fair. Math!

So, do you agree to wager 1.75 mBTC against me wagering 1.0 mBTC on the terms that I brought forth in my previous post? That is, I wager 1 mBTC that I don't become a Legendary member at 994, you wager 1.75 mBTC that I do at that activity?

If I become Legendary at 1,008, that would be a draw

[actmyname]

[...]

We would have to wager 1.75 mBTC for every 1 mBTC you wager to make it fair. Math!

So, do you agree to wager 1.75 mBTC against me wagering 1.0 mBTC on the terms that I brought forth in my previous post? That is, I wager 1 mBTC that I don't become a Legendary member at 994, you wager 1.75 mBTC that I do at that activity?

If I become Legendary at 1,008, that would be a draw

Yep, that's good with me! 0 ev is always better than gambling at -ev.

[deisik]

[...]

We would have to wager 1.75 mBTC for every 1 mBTC you wager to make it fair. Math!

So, do you agree to wager 1.75 mBTC against me wagering 1.0 mBTC on the terms that I brought forth in my previous post? That is, I wager 1 mBTC that I don't become a Legendary member at 994, you wager 1.75 mBTC that I do at that activity?

If I become Legendary at 1,008, that would be a draw

Yep, that's good with me! 0 ev is always better than gambling at -ev.

Is it a deal?

[actmyname]

Is it a deal?

I agree with the deal. To further validate this:

Yes.
Oui.
Si.
Ja.
Da.
Iva.
etc.

Code:

-----BEGIN BITCOIN SIGNED MESSAGE-----
I, actmyname, on this October 10th, 2016 (EST) agree to wagering 1.75 mBTC against deisik. If deisik does not become a Legendary member on Bitcointalk at 1008 activity or less, I will pay them 1.75 mBTC.
-----BEGIN SIGNATURE-----
1ActBTCi5XUMjqnyFxVWgSfE5xWicj8g3o
G0TgM0CHjc5ewrxH0rC/ZhnxY2iJIDkNmMLOmbF/OMzhQpst+6Pz/dveQKQbeD1LBFcAY9/HgpBy3RplNs7JRq0=
-----END BITCOIN SIGNED MESSAGE-----

[deisik]

Is it a deal?

I agree with the deal. To further validate this:

Yes.

So be it! Here's the snapshot to make the parties involved follow the conditions agreed. In fact, I will be happy to pay you 1 mBTC if I become a Legendary member tomorrow (or whenever the next activity increase should happen). But I wouldn't mind to earn something either if I have to make it till "the bitter end for my enthronement", lol...

Anyone else willing to strike a bet?

[Timelord2067]

There are two of us with Activity 910 - I expect the other person will become legendary earlier than myself due to their posting double the number of posts in a shorter period of time.

I also expect I will become legendary around the 22nd / 23rd of November 2016. ( Which would be activity 966 )

[minifrij]

It seems that it is not possible to get activity above 1022 without becoming Legendary, at least, for me. The next activity number would be 1036 which is above 1030, i.e. beyond the upper limit of the range within which you can become a Legendary member (775-1030)

It isn't possible for you to achieve, however it is possible for a member to be Hero with >1022 Activity providing some very specific qualities are present in a member.
To begin, the member must be extremely unlucky to have not reached Legendary in this time. I'm sure that some members here had that quality, however they did not have the next or did not remain active enough to reach it.
Secondly, the account must have a significant amount of potential activity. This means that not enough posts were made in a large number of activity periods (I.E their post count is less than or equal to their activity) allowing them to upgrade their activity as they post.
If this is the case, the member will be able to post directly up to their Legendary quota without it being skipped over by a full activity period (As seen with Lincoln6Echo).

[The Sceptical Chymist]

They made me wait right until the bitter end for my enthronement. They'll get theirs. Oh yes they will.

Lol.  Glad you made it without going even more insane than you are.

OP, I swear I've never seen you post here and it definitely seems like I should have by now.  What sections are you in, mostly?  Anywhos, I would bet that you're not going to be legendary tomorrow, but I wouldn't take the other side of that bet.  You're probably gonna have to wait and wait and wait.

Didn't Amph get legendary like really early?

[botija]

It seems that it is not possible to get activity above 1022 without becoming Legendary, at least, for me. The next activity number would be 1036 which is above 1030, i.e. beyond the upper limit of the range within which you can become a Legendary member (775-1030)

It isn't possible for you to achieve, however it is possible for a member to be Hero with >1022 Activity providing some very specific qualities are present in a member.
To begin, the member must be extremely unlucky to have not reached Legendary in this time. I'm sure that some members here had that quality, however they did not have the next or did not remain active enough to reach it.
Secondly, the account must have a significant amount of potential activity. This means that not enough posts were made in a large number of activity periods (I.E their post count is less than or equal to their activity) allowing them to upgrade their activity as they post.
If this is the case, the member will be able to post directly up to their Legendary quota without it being skipped over by a full activity period (As seen with Lincoln6Echo).

That's pretty good logic that's over looked. Instead of having one chance out of 14 days, you get one chance to every time you post. So it does place those prolific posters like the OP at a disadvantage.

[botija]

They made me wait right until the bitter end for my enthronement. They'll get theirs. Oh yes they will.

Lol.  Glad you made it without going even more insane than you are.

OP, I swear I've never seen you post here and it definitely seems like I should have by now.  What sections are you in, mostly?  Anywhos, I would bet that you're not going to be legendary tomorrow, but I wouldn't take the other side of that bet.  You're probably gonna have to wait and wait and wait.

Didn't Amph get legendary like really early?

You can check his activity and figure out why you never seen him post  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=156665;sa=statPanel

[deisik]

OP, I swear I've never seen you post here and it definitely seems like I should have by now.  What sections are you in, mostly?  Anywhos, I would bet that you're not going to be legendary tomorrow, but I wouldn't take the other side of that bet.  You're probably gonna have to wait and wait and wait

Seek and ye shall find. You may want to look through my post history to get a clue, I don't mind. There is even a relatively small group of "followers" (lol) who are closely tracking my posts and even religiously studying what I had written years ago...

I don't mind either

Didn't Amph get legendary like really early?

You don't need brains if you have luck at your side